THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION CONSENSUS FORECAST COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK JULY 2015
WEB REPORT
Still optimism
From 2015 to 2019 a total return of 5.6 percent in average is expected, which can be described as good times for the coming five years. 25 percent of the participants expect a total return of 5.3 percent in average or just below from 2015 to 2019, while 25 percent of the participants expect a total return of 6.0 percent or above.
A total return of 5.4 percent is expected this year 2015
2016
2017
2015-2019
Total return
5.4
5.6
Quarterly change
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
Annual change
0.0
0.0
New
New
5.7
5.6
Source: The Danish Property Federation.
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I seems that there are still good times ahead for investment properties in Denmark in 2015. A total return of 5.4 percent is expected for 2015, which is 0.1 percentage points less than last quarter and unchanged compared to the same time last year. This corresponds to a slight increase in capital value and a reasonable return compared to other assets. In 2016, total return is expected to increase to 5.6 percent, which is unchanged compared to last quarter and last year, while total return in 2017 is expected to be 5.7 percent, giving an increase of 0.1 percentage point compared to last quarter.
The average total return based on the replies is presented in the table. Quarterly and annual changes are in percentage points.
In 2015, half of the participants expect a total return of between 5.0 and 5.9 percent 20% 18%
Increasing occupied space – especially for office During the next year, the participants expect that occupied space will still increase. Indicator values for all four sectors (office, retail, industry, and residential) are positive, and we also see a positive trend compared to last quarter. Especially office, where the participants in this quarter have changed their expectations more positively. Back in 1st quarter 2013, the participants expected continuous decrease in occupied space, while they now expect that occupied space for office increase the fastest. 61 percent of the participants expect that occupied space for office increase.
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: IPD Denmark Annual Property Index and the Danish Property Federation.
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Compared to last quarter, the expectations for capital values decreases slightly while expectations for market rent are almost unchanged compared to last quarter.
16%
Total return for investment properties. 2000 to 2014 shows the total return of IPD Denmark Annual Property Index. 2015 to 2017 shows the average of the replies from the consensus forecast. 50 percent of the replies lie within the blue lines.
Almost all indicator values are positive (indicator values between -100 og 100)
July 2015
Capital value Quarterly change
Annual change
Occupied space Quarterly Annual July 2015 change change
Office
26.6
-2.1
21.0
29.8
12.8
Retail
23.4
-2.1
16.7
12.8
4.3
-3.2
13.1
5.3
37.2
-6.4
2.8
13.8
Industry Residential
July 2015
Market rent Quarterly change
Annual change
18.7
13.8
3.2
17.2
6.4
2.8
17.0
0.0
10.4
2.1
10.9
-2.1
3.2
11.2
0.0
-6.2
25.5
-2.1
0.0
Source: The Danish Property Federation.
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The participants have answered: ‘very low’, ‘lower’, ‘unchanged’, ‘higher’, ‘much higher’. The answers give a value in order to obtain an indicator between -100 and 100. An indicator of 100 is identical to everyone having answered ‘much higher’, and -100 is identical to everyone having answered ‘very low’. An indicator of 0 indicates unchanged expectations. For example, an indicator of 29.8 is feasible by 29.8 percent of the participants answering ‘much higher’ and the remaining answers are ‘unchanged’.
Published by the Danish Property Federation
THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION EJENDOMSFORENINGEN DANMARKS CONSENSUS FORECAST FORVENTNINGSUNDERSØGELSE COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK FOR DET PROFESSIONELLE INVESTERINGSEJENDOMSMARKED I DANMARK JULY 2015 WEBRAPPORT WEB REPORT OKTOBER 2014
Forventninger til økonomisk vækst
Den økonomiske vækst skuffede i Danmark i andet kvartal, og det kan komme til at smitte af på resultaterne for investeringsejendomme på sigt. Regeringen har indtil videre fastholdt deres forventning til økonomisk vækst på 1,4 procent for 2014, men den kan være for højt sat. Det er afgørende for aktiviteten i ejendommene, at dansk økonomi går frem. Den økonomiske vækst skal medvirke til, at tomgangen falder, markedslejen stabileres, og der dermed kan komme fornuftig udvikling i ejendomsværdierne.
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Highestog expectations for capital Copenhagen Odense Trekantsområdet går growth lidt fremini forhold til sidste kvartal
Kilde: Ejendomsforeningen Danmark. Source: The Danish Property Federation.
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This 27 stillprocent means that indicator values for all Kun tror the på uændrede ejendomsfour sectors are positive with mindre regards minus to capital værdier for bolig. Det eneste for value.var, It also means that industry for the second bolig at forventningen til udlejningsprocenquarter in a row has indicator values close to ten var faldende i forhold til sidste kvartal, men zero.erThus, it seems den stadig positiv.that the poor prospects for industry lie in the past Industri oplevede også en fremgang, og der Odense still on its way forward er endda også en svag positiv forventning om, at er stigende. Industris Weudlejningsprocenten still see the highest expectations for capital ejendomsværdier er med en indikatorværdi -5,6 value developing more positively in Copenhastadig negativ, -5,6 er det Aalborg, højeste, and som er gen, Aarhus, themen Triangle Area. målt. Selvom der order, i forventningsundersøgelsen Odense – in that while capital values spørges med prime location, develop om the ejendomme least in the category ’rest of the er det positivt, industriejendomme country’. Theatorder of the areas has trods been alt er på vej frem. four quarters in a row, but in the unchanged last four quarters, Odense has slowly but steady Ejendomsværdi for closing kontor in ogon butik også en gained and is now the fik other lille opjustering. ButiksAarhus, indikatorværdi på 16,7 centres: Copenhagen, the Triangle Area, for har kun været højere, hvis andejendomsværdi Aalborg. man går tilbage til andet kvartal 2011. Der er for både kontor Growth aheadog butik en forventning om svag fremgang foreconomic udlejningsprocenten, In May 2015, the advisors havemens markedsleje næsten er neutral. revalued their estimate by 0.4 percentage point with regards to the economic growth in 2015 Relativ i Odense og If this holds, to a totalfremgang of 1.9 percentage points. Trekantsområdet it will be the highest Danish economic growth Overordnet billedet sammegrowth vedrørende since 2006, er where the det economic were regionale forventninger udviklingen i ejen3.8 percent. During the til last 40 years, the averdomspriserne investeringsejendomme. Kø-1.7 age economicpå growth in Denmark has been benhavn og2014 Aarhus ereconomic der størst growth forventninger percent. In the was 1.1 til, mens det erthe lavest forventninger tilexpect resten af percent, while economic advisors landet. til sidste kvartal vinder that theI forhold economic growth in 2016 will Odense be 2.3 og Trekantsområdet en lille smule i forhold percent. The economic advisors expect thetil Aarhus og specielt Aalborg. Det at der economic growth to increase tobetyder, 2.8 percent in nu er lidt større forventninger ejendomsvær2020. If the economic growthtil holds the coming dier i Trekantsområdet end i Aalborg. Størst er years, it will mean increasing occupied space, forventningerne tilrent, København og Aarhus. increasing market and increasing capital value.
Kortet viser de områder i Danmark, hvor investeringsejendomme at stigecommest The map shows which regions in Denmark that have the highestforventes capital growth ipared ejendomsværdi i forholdWe til de andre områder. DerTriangle er spurgtRegion til København, Odense, to other regions. have asked about the in Jutland (Fredericia, Trekantsområdet, Aalborg, Aarhus og resten Aalborg, af Danmark. Ud fra svarene er dannet Kolding, and Vejle), Copenhagen, Odense, Aarhus, and all other regionsen as the indikator. et område lysegrøn, harcreated mindstan 70indicator. procent afIf de været rest of theHvis country. Fromfår thefarven replies, we have theadspurgte area is the enige om, at dette område sigof bedst i forhold til andre. lightest colour, at least 70 klarer percent the participants have agreed that this region is doing best compared to other regions.
47 market players participated in this forecast. 38 percent of the participants 45 harFurthermore, deltaget i denne undersøgelse. 38 procent af deltagerne aremarkedsaktører property owners. 26 percent are commercial brokers, 13 perer ejere af ejendomme. Derudover er 27 procent erhvervsmæglere, 13 procent cent are banks/mortgage providers, and 23 percent are other players. er banker/realkreditinstitutter og 22 procent er andre aktører.
Please find below the names of some of the companies, which have Følgende virksomheder har blandt andet bidraget contributed
Aareal Bank, Aberdeen Asset Management, ATP Ejendomme, Bertélco EjendomAareal Bank, Aberdeen Asset Management, ATP Ejendomme, Bertélco Ejendomme A/S, BBN Consult, BRF Kredit, Carlsberg Byen, CBRE, Chr. Hjorth Erhvervsejenme A/S, BBN Consult, BRF Kredit, Carlsberg Byen, CBRE, Chr. Hjorth Erhvervsejendomme, Colliers international Danmark, Cura Management, DADES, Danbolig domme, Colliers international Danmark, Cura Management, DADES, Danbolig erhverv Johnny Hallas, DTZ, EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech, Jeudan, Karberghus, Køerhverv Johnny Hallas, DTZ, EDC Erhverv Poul Erik Bech, EY, Jeudan, Karberghus, benhavns Lufthavne, Lund & Lindhardt, NCC Construction Danmark A/S, Nordea, Københavns Lufthavne, Lund & Lindhardt, NCC Construction Danmark A/S, Nordea Ejendomme, Pension Danmark, PFA Ejendomme, PKA, PwC, Reinholdt Nordea, Nordea Ejendomme, Pension Danmark, PFA Ejendomme, PKA, PwC, A/S, RICS Nordic, Sadolin & Albæk, Sampension, Sinding Gruppen, Situs, TLK, Reinholdt A/S, RICS Nordic, Sadolin & Albæk, Sampension, Saxo Properties, Wiborg & Partnere. Sinding Gruppen, Situs, Taurus Ejendomsadministration, Thylander Gruppen, TLK, Wiborg & Partnere.
About the Consensus Forecast Om undersøgelsen
Theseer are the expectations July 2015 from the Danish Dette forventningerne forfor oktober 2014 fra EjendomsforeninProperty Federation Consensus Forecast. The objective is to inforgen Danmarks Forventningsundersøgelse. Målet er at skabe create atilmore transparent property market. mation et mere gennemsigtigt ejendomsmarked. The Consensus udkommer Forecast is published on og a quarterly basis and Undersøgelsen hvert kvartal er helt og aldeles is very dependent on the participating companies’ will afhængig af de deltagende virksomheders velvilje tilgood at rapportere to report every quarter. these ville companies, the data hvertdata kvartal. Uden disseWithout virksomheder forventningsConsensus Forecast have been possible. undersøgelsen aldrigwould kunnenever blive til noget.
Udgivetby afthe Ejendomsforeningen Danmark Published Danish Property Federation