Ejendomsforeningen Danmarks markedsstatistik – tomgang, april 2017
April 2017
The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics WEB REPORT VACANCY
Results • Decrease in economic vacancy is on hold • 7,7 percent is the lowest economic vacancy for retail since July 2009 • Economic vacancy is stable • Fewer commercial areas are vacant on national level
Unchanged economic vacancy
Office underperforms this quarter with unchanged economic vacancy after a decrease two quarters in a row. Industry experience an increase in the economic vacancy of 0.3 percentage point, but compared to last year it is a decrease og 0.7 percentage point. There is almost unchanged expectations for vacancy within residential, but the economic vacancy increases by 0.2 percentage point compared to last quarter. The economic vacancy within residential is at a very low level – 3.3 percent economic vacancy. A possible explanation to a small increase within residential is that more and more new residential properties are fully developed and it usually takes some time before all units are rented.
The economic vacancy is 8.8 on national level and is keeping the level from January 2017. An expected decrease has been on hold this quarter after having decreased four quarters in a row. It is worth noticing that the economic vacancy has descreased by 0.6 percentage point compared to last year. The economic vacancy has decreased by 1.8 percentage point in total since it peaked in 2013. The market players expect that the vacancy will decrease further. This is seen in the Danish Property Federation Market Statistic – Consensus Forecast from April 2017, where the highest expectations of a decrease in vacancy for the year to come were seen in office followed by industry and retail while the players had an expectation of almost unchanged vacancy for residential. This quarter, retail comes up to expectations with a decrease of 0.3 percentage point ending at 7.7 percent. This is the lowest economic vacancy for retail in eight years. By this, retail is close to seven percent, which is the long-term average for retail from 2000 until today.
Spatial vacancy is decreasing Economic vacancy is the most important to the market. But while the economic vacancy is on hold, the spatial vacancy decreases by 0.2 percentage point compared to last quarter, while there is a decrease of 1.3 percentage point compared to last year. The spatial vacancy is 9.3 percent which is higher than the economic vacancy.
Tabel 1. Tomgangsprocenter april 2017 Økonomisk tomgang Tomgang (percent) Kontor Butik
Kvartals ændring (percentage points)
Arealmæssig tomgang
Annual change (percentage points)
11,8
0,0
-0,6
Tomgang (percent) 13,2
Kvartals ændring (percentage points)
Annual change (percentage points)
-0,3
-1,1
7,7
-0,3
-0,6
7,3
-0,3
-0,3
12,1
0,3
-0,7
11,3
-0,2
-1,8
Bolig
3,3
0,2
0,3
3,1
0,2
0,2
Total
8,8
0,0
-0,7
9,3
-0,2
-1,3
Industri
Kilde: Ejendomsforeningen Danmark. Anm.: Tomgangsmålet for alle sektorer i alt omfatter også aktuel årsleje og arealer for andet erhverv samt sekundære arealer.
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