June 2024
Most agents know what’s happening.
Good agents understand what’s happening.
Great
agents can explain what’s happening.
What Every Buyer Needs To Know About Home Prices
Buy now, or wait? That’s the question prospective homeowners have been struggling to answer in today’s housing market. Home prices have been skyrocketing recently, and the Federal Reserve’s work to tame inflation sent mortgage rates soaring, too. The combination has led many would-be buyers to pick the “wait” side of the equation.
- Bankrate
Home buyers face the most difficult affordability conditions in nearly 40 years . . .- Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist & VP of Research, NAR
Home Values Climb This Month
-0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.7 1.3
0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 1.2 0.1 Jan '23 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '24 Feb Mar FHFA Percent Change Home Values, Month-Over-Month (Seasonally Adjusted)
Case-Shiller
Astonishingly, greater than 90 percent of the country’s metro areas experience home price growth despite facing the highest mortgage rates in two decades . . . In the current market, rising prices are the direct result of insufficient housing supply not meeting the full demand.
- Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR
. . . with the continued imbalance between supply and demand, home prices are expected to keep rising.
- The Mortgage Reports
2024 Home Price Forecasts
Percent Appreciation/Depreciation as of 6/3/2024
3.0 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.8 1.9 1.8 0.5 Average of All 7
MBA
NAR
Fannie Mae
Goldman Sachs HPES Zillow
Freddie Mac
In the current market, rising prices are the direct result of insufficient housing supply not meeting the full demand.
- Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NARWhat Every Buyer Needs To Know About Inventory
I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale! And currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.
- Bill McBride, Founder, Calculated RiskInventory Rising, But
Still Low
Compared to the Same Weeks in 2023 and 2019 38.4%
Same Week in 2023 Same Week in 2019
Source: Calculated
Risk
-35.7%
Existing Home Inventory
Active Listings, May of Each Year
1,253,854 1,156,910 1,180,920 928,370
787,722
Source: Realtor.com
447,662 479,462 582,441
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Inventory Continues To Improve
Source: Realtor.com
Active
Thousands200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 May 2024 787,722 35.2% Y-O-Y
Monthly Listings Counts in
Inventory Continues To Improve
Source: Realtor.com
Active
Thousands200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 May 2024 787,722 35.2% Y-O-Y
Monthly Listings Counts in
Change in Inventory
Year-Over-Year, May 2024
Source: Realtor.com
. . . sellers continued to list their homes in higher numbers this May as newly listed homes were 6.2% above last year’s levels. While a notable deceleration from last month’s 12.2% growth rate, it marks the seventh month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
- Realtor.com
New Listings Above Last Year’s Level
200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: Realtor.com Monthly
May 2024 432,140 6.2% Y-O-Y
Counts
Why are new listings up year-over-year?
The lock-in effect is easing a bit as the initial mortgage rate shock recedes in the rearview mirror, and as some sellers come to terms with the fact that their life circumstances have changed, and sub-4% mortgage rates aren’t returning anytime soon. Additionally, some newbie investors who piled into the market during the boom are realizing that being a landlord isn’t easy.
- Lance Lambert, Co-Founder, ResiClub
. . . after two years of higher mortgage rates, sellers are slowly coming back into the market. We’ll continue to have gradually more sellers.
- Mike Simonsen, CEO and Founder, Altos Research1 in 3 Homes on the Market Today Are New Construction
Average for 1983-2019: 13%
Source: NAR, Census
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1/1/1983 10/1/1983 7/1/1984 4/1/1985 1/1/1986 10/1/1986 7/1/1987 4/1/1988 1/1/1989 10/1/1989 7/1/1990 4/1/1991 1/1/1992 10/1/1992 7/1/1993 4/1/1994 1/1/1995 10/1/1995 7/1/1996 4/1/1997 1/1/1998 10/1/1998 7/1/1999 4/1/2000 1/1/2001 10/1/2001 7/1/2002 4/1/2003 1/1/2004 10/1/2004 7/1/2005 4/1/2006 1/1/2007 10/1/2007 7/1/2008 4/1/2009 1/1/2010 10/1/2010 7/1/2011 4/1/2012 1/1/2013 10/1/2013 7/1/2014 4/1/2015 1/1/2016 10/1/2016 7/1/2017 4/1/2018 1/1/2019 10/1/2019 7/1/2020 4/1/2021 1/1/2022 10/1/2022 7/1/2023 4/1/2024
Today: 31.4%
The new home market has been an outsized share of the housing inventory, so homebuilders have been able to attract prospective home buyers who are seeing very limited supply in the existing home market.
- Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist, Bright MLSHomeownership
Source: Gallup
Best Long-Term Investment 2024 36% 22% 18% 13% 4% 3% Real Estate Stocks / Mutual Funds Gold Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Cryptocurrency
America’s Opinion of
. . . our research continues to show that the vast majority of prospective homebuyers overwhelmingly feel buying a home, now or in the future, is the best decision for them in the long run.
- Matt Vernon, Head of Consumer Lending, Bank of AmericaEmotional Value of Homeownership
Most homeowners and renters agree on the many financial and emotional benefits of homeownership:
89%
67%
58%
Said that the idea of owning a home brings emotional fulfillment rather than added stress
Of prospective homebuyers would prefer to own a home for the sense of permanence and emotional stability it provides, rather than the flexibility of renting
Of prospective homebuyers said that owning a home is the best long-term decision for them to have control over their own living space
Bank of America Institute
Source:
The decision between renting and owning a home is a significant one, impacting your finances, lifestyle, and future. While renting offers flexibility and minimal responsibility for maintenance, owning a house brings a suite of benefits that can have lasting positive effects on your life and financial well-being.
- FinHabits
Benefits of Owning a Home
Instead of Renting
Building Equity
Tax Advantages
Freedom to Customize Community
Involvement No Landlord Dependency A Forced Saving Plan
Stable Monthly Payments
Investment Potential
Potential for Rental Income
Source: Finhabits
Security and Stability
Financial Lifestyle
Long-Term
Interest rates sure do get a lot of attention. But they shouldn’t be the only part of your home buying decision-making process. After all, the answer to the question “is right now a good time to buy a house” boils down to whether the time is right for you: To start your new chapter. To invest in what makes you happy.
- Houselogic
3 Reasons Owning a Home Is
Preferable to Renting
Having a sense of privacy and security (94%)
Having a good place for your family (91%)
Having a good place to raise your children (90%)
Source: Fannie Mae
Our homes offer space to reflect our tastes, ethos, and routines without external judgment . . .
Hanging favorite artwork, surrounding ourselves with favorite colors and developing layouts reflective of personal lifestyles are all ways our homes offer opportunities for self-expression.
- Sarah Barnard, Interior DesignerSummer Buyer & Seller Guides: Available Now
https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/should-i-buy-a-housenow-or-wait/
https://www.investopedia.com/affordability-main-obstaclefor-home-buyers-7970500
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx
https://www.inman.com/2024/05/08/us-home-prices-rise-in93-of-all-housing-markets-in-q1-narsays/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CAstonishingly%2C%20greater %20than%2090%20percent,not%20meeting%20the%20full %20demand.%E2%80%9D
https://themortgagereports.com/112212/state-of-thehousing-market-spring
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 4 Bankrate Quote
5 Jessica Lautz Quote
6 Home Values
Climb Graph
7 Lawrence Yun Quote
8 The Mortgage Reports Quote
https://x.com/NewsLambert/status/1797659853403672983/ photo/1
https://img03.en25.com/Web/MortgageBankersAssociation/ %7B3a3cfcd7-a920-4329-8953167a89666546%7D_Mortgage_Finance_Forecast_Apr_202 4.pdf
https://www.zillow.com/research/home-value-sales-forecast33822/
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/50986/display
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20240418economic-growth-moderated-labor-market-robust https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-salesascended-3-4-in-march
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/more-than-90-percent-ofmetro-areas-home-price-increase-1Q-2024
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/housing-june3rd-weekly-update.html
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 9 Home Price Forecasts Graph
10 Lawrence Yun Quote
12 Bill McBride Quote
13 Inventory Rising Graph
https://www.realtor.com/research/may-2024-data/
https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/persistence-lockineffect-eased-not-vanished
https://blog.altosresearch.com/home-price-signals-point-toflat-growth
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/existing-home-sales
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/realestate/housing-market-predictions/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 14-17, 19 Existing Home Inventory Visuals https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 18 Realtor.com Quote
20 Lance Lambert Quote
21 Mike Simonsen Quote
22 New Construction Graph
23 Lisa Sturtevant Quote
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/realestate/housing-market-predictions/ https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/business/housing-marketgood-time-to-buy/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/06/realestate/i-hired-anagent-to-sell-my-home-do-i-have-to-pay-the-buyers-brokernow.html
https://news.gallup.com/poll/645107/stocks-gold-downamericans-best-investment-ratings.aspx
https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/a-majority-ofprospective-home-buyers-fear-the-long-term-impact-ofrenting_o
https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/bank-ofamerica-institute/economic-insights/homebuyer-insightsreport-q1-2024.pdf
https://finhabits.com/what-are-the-advantages-of-owning-ahouse-instead-of-renting/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 26 Forbes Headlines
27 Best Long-Term Investment Graph
28 Matt Vernon Quote
29 Emotional Value of Homeownership Pie Charts
30 FinHabits Quote
https://finhabits.com/what-are-the-advantages-of-owning-ahouse-instead-of-renting/
https://www.houselogic.com/buy/7-benefits-of-buying-ahome/
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-andinsights/perspectives/consumers-homeownershipaspirations-remain-high-despite-higher-home-prices-andinterest-rates
https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/home/thankfulfor-home/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 31 FinHabits Rent vs Own
32 Houselogic Quote
33 3 Reasons Rent vs Own
34 Sarah Barnard Quote
35 Buyer & Seller Guides https://www.mykcm.com/resources
Updates
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Slide(s) Description Link(s) 45 Confidence Index
Resources
46-48, 55, 57, 58, 65-68 Existing Home Sales
49-51 New Home Sales
52 Total Home Sales
53-54 Pending Home Sales
59-61 Case Shiller
62 CoreLogic Price Forecast
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
Slide(s) Description Link(s) 64-70 Inventory
Resources
72 Showing Activity
74, 75, 77, 78 Mortgage Rates
76 Mortgage Rate Projections
80, 81 Mortgage Credit Availability
Home Sales
4141 36 29 27 26 24 2222 21212121 20 18 171717171717 1818 1919 18 1717 16 1414 16 19 24 26 33 34 29 22 1818 2020 21 23 25 29 36 38 33 26 Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-24 Feb Mar Apr Source: NAR Average
April 2024
Days on the Market
Existing Home Sales
Since January 2014
Source: NAR
4,800,000
6,300,000
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
3,800,000 4,300,000
5,300,000 5,800,000
6,800,000
Existing Home Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Region
Source: NAR
-1.9% -4.0% -1.0% -3.1% 1.3%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Existing Home Sales
Source: NAR
In Thousands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2022 2023 2024
Source: Census
Annualized in Thousands 360 460 560 660 760 860 960 1060 jun-14 Jan15 Jan16 Jan17 Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23 Jan24
New Home Sales
New Home Sales
Percent of Distribution by Price Range
* Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
Census
Source:
9% 15% 12% 7% 7% 3% 2% Under $300K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$599K $600-$799K $800-$999K $1,000,000 and Over
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.3 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AugSept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July AugSept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July AugSept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July AugSept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July AugSept Oct Nov Dec Jan-24 Feb Mar Apr
Total Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 422 423 524 517 557 575 495 528 477 419 372 374 286 325 421 397 475 491 432 453 403 383 342 347 292 328 389 415 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2022 2023 2024
Pending Home Sales
Source: NAR
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023 January 2024
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
Year-Over-Year by Region
Source: NAR
100 = Historically Healthy Level 0.1% -0.3% 1.3% -1.5% 3.6% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Source: NAR
Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales)
sales
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024 4%
Represented 2% of
in April.
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes
Year-Over-Year, by Region
5.7% 8.5% 6.0% 3.7% 9.3%
Northeast Midwest South West
NAR
U.S.
Source:
% Change in Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Price Range
Source: NAR
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % change in sales -7.1% 0.1% 7.6% 17.1% 23.8% 39.7% -7.1% 0.1% 7.6% 17.1% 23.8% 39.7%
Change in Home Prices
S&P Case-Shiller
Source:
Year-Over-Year -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source: S&P Case-Shiller -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar Apr May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2024 Feb Mar
Change in Home Prices
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
18.9% 20.3% 21.1%21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0% 13.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.6%1.7%1.5% 0.9%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1% -0.2%-0.3%-0.1% 0.9% 1.6% Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2024 Feb Mar
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
US Home Price Insights – March 2024
Source: CoreLogic Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
5.3% 3.7% Current Forecast
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory
Month-Over-Month, April 2024
Source: Realtor.com
Source: NAR Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 2011 - Today 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023 January 2024
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Since 2019
Source: NAR
3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Source: NAR
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023 January 2024
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
-6.1% -13.6% -14.6% -14.1% -8.1% -5.7% 0.9% 4.2% 3.1% 10.3% 14.4% 16.3% Jan-24 July May June Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr
New Home Monthly Inventory
Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months
Source: Census
8.1 7.6 7.2 7.5 7.1 7.9 7.5 7.9 8.8 8.3 8.3 8.9 8.5 9.1 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 24 Feb Mar Apr
New Home Monthly Inventory
Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Census
7.9 7.6 6.9 7 6.3 7.5 7.2 8.4 8 8.9 10.9 9.2 7.9 8 7.2 8.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2023 2024
Buyer Demand
Showing Index Still Remain Above Pre-pandemic Levels
Showing Index over Last 7 Aprils
Source: ShowingTime
156.7 147.1 84.9 280.7 251.0 224.8 181.3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/3/2019 1/24/2019 2/14/2019 3/7/2019 3/28/2019 4/18/2019 5/9/2019 5/30/2019 6/20/2019 7/11/2019 8/1/2019 8/22/2019 9/12/2019 10/3/2019 10/24/2019 11/14/2019 12/5/2019 12/26/2019 1/16/2020 2/6/2020 2/27/2020 3/19/2020 4/9/2020 4/30/2020 5/21/2020 6/11/2020 7/2/2020 7/23/2020 8/13/2020 9/3/2020 9/24/2020 10/15/2020 11/5/2020 11/25/2020 12/17/2020 1/7/2021 1/28/2021 2/18/2021 3/11/2021 4/1/2021 4/22/2021 5/13/2021 6/3/2021 6/24/2021 7/15/2021 8/5/2021 8/26/2021 9/16/2021 10/7/2021 10/28/2021 11/18/2021 12/9/2021 12/30/2021 1/20/2022 2/10/2022 3/3/2022 3/24/2022 4/14/2022 5/5/2022 5/26/2022 6/16/2022 7/7/2022 7/28/2022 8/18/2022 9/8/2022 9/29/2022 10/20/2022 11/10/2022 12/1/2022 12/22/2022 1/12/2023 2/2/2023 2/23/2023 3/16/2023 4/6/2023 4/27/2023 5/18/2023 6/8/2023 6/29/2023 7/20/2023 8/10/2023 8/31/2023 9/21/2023 10/12/2023 11/02/2023 11/22/2023 12/14/2023 1/4/2024 1/25/2024 2/15/2024 3/7/2024 3/28/2024 4/18/2024 5/9/2024 Source: Freddie Mac
6.94%
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today 6.94%
Source: Freddie Mac
Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2024 Q3 7.10% 6.70% 6.70% 6.83% 2024 Q4 7.00% 6.50% 6.50% 6.67% 2025 Q1 6.90% 6.40% 6.30% 6.53% 2025 Q2 6.80% 6.20% 6.20% 6.40%
Mortgage Rate Projections May 2024
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 9/710/5 11/9 12/7 1/4 2/8 3/7 4/4 5/9
2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 Source: Freddie Mac, MBA Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates Where Are They Going?
6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2
Source: MBA
2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 Rate 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 5.3 5.7 6.6 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2 5.9 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 - Actual - Projected 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2023 2025
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate
Mortgage Credit Availability
Source: MBA Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) April 2024 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Lending Standards Still Under Control
Source: MBA
Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 June 2023 April 2024 Housing Bubble: 868.7 94.0