August 2023
IN TIMES OF UNCERTAINTY, PEOPLE FOLLOW THE CERTAIN
Consumer Survey on Home Prices
Consumer Confidence in Home Prices Weakened Toward the End of 2022
Source: Fannie Mae
18% 17% 11% 9% 8% 8% 11% 6% 14% 10% 16% 19% 37% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 % of Americans in Each December Who Think Prices Will Go Down over Next 12 Months
Consumer Confidence in Home Prices
% Who Believe Home Prices Will Go Down in Next 12 Months
Pandemic
Talk of Repeat of 2008 Crash
Aftermath of Housing Crash
Source:
Fannie Mae
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Jun '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 Jan '13 Jan '14 Jan '15 Jan '16 Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21 Jan '22 Jan '23 Jun
1 of 4 Still Believe Prices Will Depreciate
Source: Fannie Mae
37% 35% 31% 32% 28% 26% January February March April May June
of Americans Who Think Prices Will Go Down over Next 12 Months
%
1 in 4 Still Believe Prices Will Depreciate
Source: Fannie Mae
Facts Shatter Fear
People Would Panic and Put Their Home on the Market
As inventory picked up sharply in 2022, I adjusted my outlook in October 2022 and wrote “House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory”. I noted that a 10% decline in nominal prices “now seemed likely”
However, the inventory surge in 2022 was somewhat of a head fake! Some potential sellers quickly listed their homes, probably remembering what happened with house prices in the 2006 to 2011 period, but that surge ended pretty quickly.
- Bill McBride, Founder, Calculated Risk. . .
New Listings Were Expected To Skyrocket
Source: Realtor.com
New Monthly Listing Counts, in Thousands 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2022
Source: Realtor.com
New Monthly Listing Counts, in Thousands 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2022
New Listings Dramatically Dropped Instead
Recession and End of Moratorium = Tsunami of Foreclosures
Foreclosures in the First 6 months
Foreclosure Filings
(Default Notices, Scheduled Auctions, or Bank Repossessions)
Source: ATTOM
1.3M 1.5M 1.7M 1.2M 1M 801K 614K 598K 536K 428K 362K 296K 165K 65K 165K 186K 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Serious Delinquencies on a Decline
% of Mortgage Loans That Are 3 Monthly Payments or More Past Due or in the Process of Foreclosure
Source: Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '23 Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
May’s overall mortgage delinquency rate matched the all-time low, and serious delinquencies followed suit. Furthermore, the rate of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a measure that ballooned in 2021, has receded to a level last observed in March 2020.
- Molly Boese, Principal Economist, CoreLogic
November 2008: Foreclosure activity is already at record levels Yet, as prices fall, foreclosure activity will probably continue to increase - the activity will be literally off the chart!
July 2023: There will not be a foreclosure crisis this time.
- Bill McBride, Calculated Risk
What Actually Happened with Home Prices in 2022?
48-Year Average Monthly Price Movement
Source: Case-Shiller
Average Case-Shiller NSA M-O-M Price Movement, 1973-2021 0.12 0.25 0.64 0.86 0.88 0.79 0.64 0.44 0.25 0.15 0.10 0.12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Case-Shiller 48-Year Average vs 2022 Price
Average Case-Shiller NSA M-O-M Price Movement 1973-2021 and 2022 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 48-Year Average
Movement
Source: Case-Shiller
Average Case-Shiller NSA M-O-M Price Movement, 1973-2021 and 2022 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.3 1.5 0.6 -0.3 -1.1 -1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 48-Year Average 2022
48-Year Average vs 2022 Price Movement
Home Prices 2023
48-Year Average Monthly Price Movement
Source: Case-Shiller
Average Case-Shiller NSA M-O-M Price Movement, 1973-2021 0.12 0.25 0.64 0.86 0.88 0.79 0.64 0.44 0.25 0.15 0.10 0.12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Case-Shiller
Average Case-Shiller NSA M-O-M Price Movement 1973-2021 and 2023 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 -0.5 0.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 48-Year Average 2023
48-Year Average vs 2023 Price Movement
Percent Change in Home Values
Month-Over-Month, Case Shiller & FHFA (SA), CoreLogic (NSA)
1.6 1.9 2 1.6 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 Case-Shiller 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 FHFA 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.9 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '23 Feb Mar Apr May CoreLogic
Percent Change in Home Values
Month-Over-Month, Zillow, Black Knight, & Freddie Mac (SA)
'23
1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Feb Mar Apr May
1.5 1.8 2 2 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0 0.4 0.3 0.4 Zillow 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.2 -1.1 -1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7
Freddie Mac
Black Knight
Appreciation Skyrocketed in Last 3 Years
Case-Shiller
Source: SP
% Appreciation in Top 20 Cities Since March 2020 Metro % Change Metro % Change Atlanta 49.5% Miami 63.1% Boston 38.8% Minneapolis 29.5% Charlotte 54.3% New York 38.6% Chicago 33.5% Phoenix 54.2% Cleveland 38.9% Portland 32.7% Dallas 50.8% San Diego 52.1% Denver 38.6% San Francisco 27.6% Detroit 37.1% Seattle 37.8% Las Vegas 37.2% Tampa 63.8% Los Angeles 39.7% Washington, D.C. 29.9% U.S. National: 41.8%
There is no doubt that the housing market has reignited from a home price perspective. Firming prices have now fully erased the pullback we tracked through the last half of 2022 and lifted the seasonally adjusted Black Knight HPI to a new record high in May.
- Andy Walden, VP of Enterprise Research, Black Knight
2023 Year End Home Price Forecasts
12/2022 vs. Current Forecast Entity Original Forecast Current Forecast MBA -0.6% 0.0% Fannie Mae -1.5% 3.9% Morgan Stanley -4% 0.0% AEI -15 to -20% 6% Zillow -0.7% 5.5% CoreLogic 3.0% 6.8%
48-Year Average Monthly Price Movement
Source: Case-Shiller
Average Case-Shiller NSA M-O-M Price Movement 1973-2021 0.12 0.25 0.64 0.86 0.88 0.79 0.64 0.44 0.25 0.15 0.10 0.12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Deceleration of Appreciation Is Not the Same Thing as Home Prices Are Depreciating
Inventory
Inventory Is Still Historically Low
As of July 28th
-50.1%
Source:
Risk
Calculated
1.9% -8.8%
-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% Week-Over-Week Same Week in 2022 Same Week in 2019
-
There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR
In a seller’s market, sellers often think that they don’t need an agent because anyone can sell a house during a favorable period. However, it is important to remember that agents don’t sell houses. Rather, they facilitate, consult, and protect their clients through the process. - The Mortgage Reports
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rate Projections
August 2023 Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2023 Q4 6.60% 5.90% 6.30% 6.27% 2024 Q1 6.40% 5.70% 6.10% 6.07% 2024 Q2 6.20% 5.50% 6.00% 5.90% 2024 Q3 6.00% 5.20% 6.00% 5.73%
Both Inflation Measures Are Moderating
Sources:
BLS
BEA,
Consumer Price Index and PCE Price Index, Year-over-Year % Change 8.9 3.1 7.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23 CPI PCE
Inflation: Historical Perspective
Consumer Price Index: All Urban Consumers (% Change Y-O-Y, Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: BLS
12.2 14.6 8.9 3.1 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan-60 Oct-61 Jul-63 Apr-65 Jan-67 Oct-68 Jul-70 Apr-72 Jan-74 Oct-75 Jul-77 Apr-79 Jan-81 Oct-82 Jul-84 Apr-86 Jan-88 Oct-89 Jul-91 Apr-93 Jan-95 Oct-96 Jul-98 Apr-00 Jan-02 Oct-03 Jul-05 Apr-07 Jan-09 Oct-10 Jul-12 Apr-14 Jan-16 Oct-17 Jul-19 Apr-21 Jan-23
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mortgage Rates Tend to Track Government Bonds and Inflation, with a Lag
Sources: BLS, Freddie Mac
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Inflation - CPI 30-Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage
Talking to Homeowners Makes a Difference
64.5% of Potential Sellers Were More Inclined to Sell Afterwards
Percent of homeowners who desired to sell their home within 6 months who were more inclined to do so after speaking to an agent
64.5%
Source: 1000watt
Facebook Live Mondays 11AM ET/8AM PT Keeping Current Matters Facebook Page
Most agents know what’s happening. Good agents understand what’s happening. Great agents can explain what’s happening.
Monday 8/14 11AM ET
Foreclosure Crisis?
What Is Really Going To Happen?
We would never suggest that a real estate company could be successful without fully understanding local market trends. But ignoring macro trends or assuming they do not carry the same weight would be an equally erroneous suggestion. In our experience, the most effective industry leaders appreciate the appropriate balance between the two ends of the spectrum.
- Ivy Zelman, Hall of Fame Institutional Investor Equity Analyst
Local Data at Your Fingertips
90-Day Business Plan
1. Make new listings out of your old listings.
2. Work competitor’s expired listings.
3. Setup your listing campaign for September 1st .
4. Contact 10 people every day and ask them what they think of the market.
5. Record at least 4 videos.
6. Don’t be satisfied with knowing. Push yourself to understand. (Deep Dives)
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveysindices/national-housing-survey/national-housing-surveyarchive
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/will-house-pricesdecline-further
https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-mid-year-2023-u-s-foreclosuremarket-report/
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/48496/display
https://www.freddiemac.com/investors/financials/pdf/0523m vs.pdf
https://www.freddiemac.com/investors/financials/pdf/0623m vs.pdf
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/loan-performanceinsights-july-2023/
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/11/
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddiesingle-family
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 4, 6-8 Consumer Confidence Prices Graph
11 McBride Quote, Inventory
12, 13 New Listings Graph https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 15 Foreclosures Graph
16 Serious Delinquencies Graph
17 Boese Quote
18 McBride Quotes, Foreclosure
Resources
Home Values Graph:
Black Knight, Freddie Mac
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#overview
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx
https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/ho me-price-insights/
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-priceindex
https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/? https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
by City Table
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/a nnouncements/20230725-1465262/1465262_cshomepricerelease-0725.pdf
https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/black-knightsmay-2023-mortgage-monitor/?
Slide(s)
20-22,
Description Link(s)
24, 25, 31 Price Movement Graph
26
Case-Shiller,
Home Values Graph:
FHFA, CoreLogic
27
Zillow,
Appreciation
28
29 Walden Quote
https://www.zillow.com/research/housing-marketchallenges-32923/
https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-priceinsights-july-2023/ www.mba.org
https://twitter.com/SelmaHepp/status/168641337169094246 4
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671900591113609 216 (Morgan Stanley)
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671556169712672 768 (AEI)
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/07/housing-july31st-weekly-update.html
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-salesretreated-3-3-in-june-monthly-median-sales-price-reachedsecond-highest-amount
https://themortgagereports.com/105952/home-buyingunique-housing-market-podcast-2
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 30 Price Forecasts Table
34 Inventory Graph
35 Yun Quote
36 The Mortgage Reports Quote
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 38 Mortgage Rate Projections Table https://www.fanniemae.com/media/48386/display https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-
39 Inflation Graph https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ 40 Historical Inflation Graph https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ 41 Inflation & Rates Graph https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 42 Talking with Homeowners Pie Chart https://mailchi.mp/1000watt/the-dose-good-or-bad-news-
46 Zelman Quote Live speaking event
forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-jul-2023.pdf
q3-2023-us-economic-outlook-07-27-2023.pdf
expenditures-price-index
first-2417845?e=d1ba443386
Updates
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 57 Confidence Index
58-60, 68, 70, 71, 78-82 Existing Home Sales
61-64 New Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
65 Total Home Sales
66, 67 Pending Home Sales
72-74 Case Shiller
75 CoreLogic Price Forecast
resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
insights/forecast.html
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 77-84 Inventory https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 86 Showing Activity https://www.showingtime.com/blog/ 88, 89, 91, 92 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-
90 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-
94, 95 Mortgage Credit Availability
Home Sales
Average Days on the Market
46 49 44 36 24 26 27 29 31 31 36 38 41 41 36 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 16 14 14 16 19 24 26 33 34 29 22 18 18 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June Source: NAR
2023
June
Existing Home Sales
Since January 2014
Source: NAR
3,800,000 4,300,000 4,800,000 5,300,000 5,800,000 6,300,000 6,800,000 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Existing Home Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Region
Source: NAR
-18.9% -21.5% -19.5% -16.2% -22.7%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Existing Home Sales
Source: NAR
In Thousands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
New Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
New Home Sales
Source: Census
Annualized in Thousands 360 460 560 660 760 860 960 1060 jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
New Home Sales
Percent of Distribution by Price Range
* Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
Source: Census
0% 7% 19% 12% 13% 7% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K
* *
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June
Total Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 443 436 567 587 593 676 646 631 604 577 557 574 422 423 524 517 557 575 495 528 477 419 372 374 286 325 421 393 475 494 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
Pending Home Sales
Source: NAR
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
=
100
Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
Year-Over-Year by Region
Source: NAR
100 = Historically Healthy Level -15.6% -16.7% -17.1% -14.3% -15.5% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) represented 2% of Sales in June.
Source: NAR
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 4%
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes
Year-Over-Year, by Region
-0.9% 4.9% 2.1% -1.2%
Northeast Midwest
NAR
-3.4%
Source:
South West U.S.
% Change in Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Price Range
Source: NAR
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % change in sales -10.6% -18.2% -13.3% -16.7% -15.4% -13.1% -10.6% -18.2% -13.3% -16.7% -15.4% -13.1%
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source: S&P Case-Shiller 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar Apr May
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source:
Case-Shiller
S&P
21.1% 21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0% 13.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar Apr May
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
Source: CoreLogic
US Home Price Insights – June 2023
Current Forecast
1.6% 4.3%
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory
Month-Over-Month, July 2023
Source: realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
2011 - Today 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June
Since 2019
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Source: NAR
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
2.4% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 2.7% 10.2% 15.3% 15.3% 5.4% 1.0% -6.1% -13.6% June July Aug Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr Sept Oct May June
New Home Monthly Inventory
Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months
Source: Census
8.3 9.5 10.1 8.7 9.7 9.7 9.4 8.5 8.1 8.4 8.1 7.7 7.2 7.4 May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 23 Feb Mar Apr May June
New Home Monthly Inventory
Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Census
5.6 5.5 5.9 7.6 7.6 9.5 10.4 9.2 10.7 10.9 11.4 9.7 7.9 7.6 6.9 7.2 6.3 7.3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2022 2023
Buyer Demand
Buyer Foot Traffic Declines Slightly, Deviating from Seasonal Trends
Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, June 2023
Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, Showing Time“June’s slowdown in showing activity is typical as we approach the fall season, and waning buyer activity with it. But showing traffic didn’t slow as much as we would expect in a typical year and decreased far less than the last two pandemic years, Time will tell whether June’s smaller-than-typical decrease is a sign of increased demand to come and what role limited inventory will play in showing activity heading into peak summer.”
Source: ShowingTime
19.7% 23.9% 19.9% 14.3% 5.9%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/4/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 3/29/2018 4/26/2018 5/24/2018 6/21/2018 7/19/2018 8/16/2018 9/13/2018 10/11/2018 11/8/2018 12/6/2018 1/3/2019 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/28/2019 4/25/2019 5/23/2019 6/20/2019 7/18/2019 8/15/2019 9/12/2019 10/10/2019 11/7/2019 12/5/2019 1/2/2020 1/30/2020 2/27/2020 3/26/2020 4/23/2020 5/21/2020 6/18/2020 7/16/2020 8/13/2020 9/10/2020 10/8/2020 11/5/2020 12/3/2020 12/31/2020 1/28/2021 2/25/2021 3/25/2021 4/22/2021 5/20/2021 6/17/2021 7/15/2021 8/12/2021 9/9/2021 10/7/2021 11/4/2021 12/2/2021 12/30/2021 1/27/2022 2/24/2022 3/24/2022 4/21/2022 5/19/2022 6/16/2022 7/14/2022 8/11/2022 9/8/2022 10/6/2022 11/3/2022 12/1/2022 12/29/2022 1/26/2023 2/23/2023 3/23/2023 4/20/2023 5/18/2023 6/15/2023 7/13/2023 Source: Freddie Mac
6.90%
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/7/2016 2/7/2016 3/7/2016 4/7/2016 5/7/2016 6/7/2016 7/7/2016 8/7/2016 9/7/2016 10/7/2016 11/7/2016 12/7/2016 1/7/2017 2/7/2017 3/7/2017 4/7/2017 5/7/2017 6/7/2017 7/7/2017 8/7/2017 9/7/2017 10/7/2017 11/7/2017 12/7/2017 1/7/2018 2/7/2018 3/7/2018 4/7/2018 5/7/2018 6/7/2018 7/7/2018 8/7/2018 9/7/2018 10/7/2018 11/7/2018 12/7/2018 1/7/2019 2/7/2019 3/7/2019 4/7/2019 5/7/2019 6/7/2019 7/7/2019 8/7/2019 9/7/2019 10/7/2019 11/7/2019 12/7/2019 1/7/2020 2/7/2020 3/7/2020 4/7/2020 5/7/2020 6/7/2020 7/7/2020 8/7/2020 9/7/2020 10/7/2020 11/7/2020 12/7/2020 1/7/2021 2/7/2021 3/7/2021 4/7/2021 5/7/2021 6/7/2021 7/7/2021 8/7/2021 9/7/2021 10/7/2021 11/7/2021 12/7/2021 1/7/2022 2/7/2022 3/7/2022 4/7/2022 5/7/2022 6/7/2022 7/7/2022 8/7/2022 9/7/2022 10/7/2022 11/7/2022 12/7/2022 1/7/2023 2/7/2023 3/7/2023 4/7/2023 5/7/2023 6/7/2023 7/7/2023 Source: Freddie Mac
6.90%
Mortgage Rate Projections
August 2023 Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2023 Q4 6.60% 5.90% 6.30% 6.27% 2024 Q1 6.40% 5.70% 6.10% 6.07% 2024 Q2 6.20% 5.50% 6.00% 5.90% 2024 Q3 6.00% 5.20% 6.00% 5.73%
Mortgage
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.2 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates
Where Are They Going?
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate
Source: MBA
2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 Rate 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 5.3 5.7 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.2 4.9 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 - Actual - Projected 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2023
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)
Source: MBA
June 2023 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Lending Standards Still Under Control
Source: MBA
Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 June 2023 Housing Bubble: 868.7 96.6
