June 2023
Mortgage Rates
For 50 Years, the 30-Year Mortgage Rate Has Moved in Unison with the 10-Year Treasury Yield
Source: Freddie Mac, Macrotrends
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1972 1980 1990 2000 2010 2022 10-Year Treasury Yield 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Average Spread:
1.72
Sources: Mortgage News Daily, WSJ
3.74 3.69 6.45 6.95 1/3/23 2/1 3/1 4/3 5/3 5/30 10-Year Treasury Yield 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Average Spread 2.961 3.230 2.705
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield
The only times the spread approached or exceeded 300 basis points were during periods of high inflation or economic volatility, like those seen in the early 1980s or the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.
- George Ratiu, Chief Economist, KCM
Spread Between 10-Year Treasury and 30-Year
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
1971-2023 Average 1.72 1989-2019 Average 1.66 2020-2023 Average 2.12 2023 Average 2.78 2023 2010 2000 1990 1980 1971 Source: St. Louis Fed
FRM
It’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal and provides investors with more certainty. However, it’s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.
- Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American
Why Are Mortgage Rates So High?
The Increase in the Spread Above the 10-Year Yield Is Now Dramatic
Spread (Difference Between the Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Yield) 10-Year Treasury Yield
3.65 3.65 3.65 1.72 3.2 2.25
Today if Normal Spread Actual Rate Friday, June 2nd Today if a 2.25% Spread
Source: Freddie Mac, CNBC
Mortgage
6.85% Mortgage Rate 5.99% Mortgage Rate
5.37%
Rate
National Homeownership Month
National
Homeownership Month: New Reasons To Own Images Now in Your Member Area
Financial Benefits of Homeownership
Source: Fortune Builders
Building Equity Control Over Expenses Building Wealth Long-Term Savings Strong Credit History
Social Benefits of Homeownership
Source: Fortune Builders
Civic Participation Privacy Health Benefits Financial Education Home Office Property Improvements
Tax Benefits of Homeownership
Source: Fortune Builders
Mortgage Interest Deduction Imputed Rent Property Tax Deduction Profit from Home Sales
Homeownership Remains the #1 Feature of the American Dream
Owning a Home
Being Able To Retire
Successful Career
62%
61%
74% College Degree
33%
Source: Bankrate.com
of Americans associate homeownership with the American Dream.
see homeownership as a means of building intergenerational wealth.
Mynd Consumer Insights Report
68%
43%
65% of Millennials and Gen Z say investing in real estate is a smart financial decision.
of Millennials and Gen Z are considering buying an investment property.
78%
America’s Opinion of Best Long-Term Investment
Source: Gallup
2023 34% 26% 18% 13% 7% Real Estate Gold Stocks / Mutual Funds Savings Accounts / CDs Bonds Real Estate has been voted the best long-term investment for 11 consecutive years!
BUT…
Consumer Confidence in Home Prices
Weakened Toward the End of 2022
Source: Fannie Mae
18% 17% 11% 9% 8% 8% 11% 6% 14% 10% 16% 19% 37% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 % of Americans in Each December Who Think Prices Will Go Down over Next 12 Months
Consumer Confidence in Home Prices Weakening Again in April
% of Americans Who Think Prices Will Go Down over Next 12 Months
31%
March 2023
32%
April 2023
Source: Fannie Mae
Home Prices
The Median Home Price Is Meaningless
It has no importance or value in today’s real estate market
Median prices are distorted by the mix and repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices.
- Bill McBride, Calculated Risk Blog
The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less . . . It is not very useful for measuring home price appreciation because it is affected by the ‘composition’ of homes that have sold. For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.
-
Center for Real Studies at Wichita State University
Understanding “Median” Sales Price
Here’s a simple way to explain “median” value: You have three coins in your pocket. Line them up in ascending value (lowest to highest).
If you have one nickel and two dimes in your pocket, the median value of the coins (the middle one) in your pocket is 10 cents.
If you have two nickels and one dime in your pocket, the median value of the coins in your pocket is now 5 cents.
In both cases, a nickel is still worth 5 cents, and a dime is still worth 10 cents.
The value of each coin didn’t change.
In today’s housing market, we are selling more of the lessexpensive homes, thus driving down the median price. It doesn’t accurately reflect the value of each house.
An Accurate Look at Home Price Movement
Case-Shiller: Prices Stabilizing
Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values, Seasonally Adjusted
1.6 1.9 2 1.6 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.4 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Feb Mar Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan ‘23 Source: Case-Shiller
FHFA: Prices Stabilizing
Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values, Seasonally Adjusted
1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Sep Oct Jan '23 Feb Mar Jul Aug Nov Dec Source: FHFA
CoreLogic: Prices Stabilizing
Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values, Seasonally Adjusted
1.4 2.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.8 1.6 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Feb Mar Jul Aug Nov Dec Sep Oct Jan Source: CoreLogic
Percent Change in Home Values
Month-Over-Month, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Case Shiller, FHFA, CoreLogic
1.6 1.9 2 1.6 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.4 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Feb Mar Case-Shiller Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan ’23 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Sep Oct Feb Mar FHFA Jul Aug Nov Dec Jan ‘22 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.8 1.6 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Feb Mar CoreLogic Jul Aug Nov Dec Jan ’23 Jan ‘22 Jan ’23 Sep Oct
Zillow: Prices Stabilizing
Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values, Seasonally Adjusted
1.5 1.8 2 2 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0 0.4 0.3 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Feb Mar April Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan ’23 Source: Zillow
Fannie Mae: Prices Stabilizing
Quarter-Over-Quarter Percent Change in Home Prices
3.8 6.52 4.47 2.56 4.72 5.48 -0.46 -1.24 0.95 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 Q1 Q2 2023 Q1 Q3 Q4
Source: Fannie Mae, @NewsLambert
is our new term for the housing market during the ‘pandemic’ years.
It is our attempt to disconnect the benefits of the strong housing market of 2020Q2-2022Q2 from the pain so many experienced during that time.
‘Unicorn’ Years
Home Appreciation = Pre-‘Unicorn’ Years
Home Price Appreciation, Seasonally Adjusted, Rounded to Nearest Full #
Source: Freddie Mac
7% 5% 4% 11% 18% 5% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ‘Unicorn’ Years
Pending Listings = Pre-‘Unicorn’ Years
May of Each Year
449,155 443,987 454,030 461,461 655,553 562,254 460,276 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Realtor.com ‘Unicorn’ Years
Showing Traffic > Pre-‘Unicorn’ Years
Showing Index for March over the Last 7 Years
Source: ShowingTime
157.8 166.8 155.7 128.7 271.3 284.4 223.9 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ‘Unicorn’ Years
Median Days on the Market < Pre-‘Unicorn’
55 51 52 68 35 30 43 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Realtor.com ‘Unicorn’ Years May of Each Year
Homes for Sale < Pre-‘Unicorn’ Years
May of Each Year
1,253,065 1,156,470 1,180,347 927,807 447,088 479,069 582,032 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Realtor.com ‘Unicorn’ Years
Months Inventory < Pre-Unicorn Years
April of Each Year
Source: NAR 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.0 2.3 2.2 2.9 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
‘Unicorn’ Years
Fewer Foreclosures During ‘Unicorn’ Years
U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings
Source: ATTOM
676,535 624,753 493,066 214,323 151,153 324,273 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ‘Unicorn’ Years
Talking to Homeowners Makes a Difference
64.5% of Potential Sellers Were More Inclined To Sell Afterwards
Percent of homeowners who desired to sell their home within six months who were more inclined to do so after speaking to an agent
64.5%
Source: 1000watt
Agent 90-Day Plan
Attack Median Price Headlines
Talk Month-Over-Month Prices
Cold Calling
Door Knocking
Expired Listings
FSBOs
Plan a 4th of July Promotion
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Summer Buyer & Seller Guides: Now Available
The word ‘responsibility’ appears 16X.
The word ‘duty’ appears 31X.
The four most important words are:
1.) Code - standards adhered to by an individual or group
2.) Ethics - moral principles that govern a person's behavior
3.) Responsibility - a state of accountability
4.) Duty - a moral obligation to perform
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 3 50 Year Movement Graph https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bondrate-yield-chart 4 Rate/Yield Spread Graph https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates https://www.wsj.com/marketdata/quotes/bond/BX/TMUBMUSD10Y/historical-prices 5 Ratiu Quote https://twitter.com/GeorgeRatiu/status/16617662824656691 24 6 Spread Peaks Graph https://fred.stlouisfed.org 7 Kushi Quote https://blog.firstam.com/economics/mind-the-gap-betweenmortgage-rates-and-the-10-year-treasury-yield 8 Why Are Rates So High? https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y https://www.freddiemac.com/home 11-13 Benefits of Homeownership https://www.fortunebuilders.com/benefits-ofhomeownership/ 14 American Dream Graph https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/homeownershipremains-centerpiece-of-american-dream/
https://www.mynd.co/real-estate-market-consumer-insightreport
https://news.gallup.com/poll/505592/real-estate-lead-bestinvestment-shrinks-gold-rises.aspx
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveysindices/national-housing-survey/national-housing-surveyarchive
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-nationalhouse-price-747
https://realestate.wichita.edu/question/hpi-vs-medianprice/#:~:text=The%20median%20sale%20price%20measu res,and%20half%20sold%20for%20less.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx
https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/ho me-price-insights/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 15 Consumer Insights
16 Best Investment Graph
18, 19 Consumer Confidence Graphs
22 McBride Quote
23 CRS at WSU Quote
26, 29 Case-Shiller Prices Graph
27, 29 FHFA Prices Graph
28, 29 CoreLogic Prices Graph
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 30 Zillow Prices Graph https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ 31 Fannie Mae Prices Graph https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveysindices/fannie-mae-home-price-index https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1649780940976037 889 33 Appreciation Graph https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-priceindex 34, 36, 37 Listings, Days on Market, Homes for Sale Graphs https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 35 Showing Traffic Graph https://www.showingtime.com/showingtime-showing-index/ 38 Inventory Graph https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-042023-overview-2023-05-18.pdf 39 Foreclosures Graph https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosuremarket-report/ 40 Talking to Homeowners https://mailchi.mp/1000watt/the-dose-good-or-bad-newsfirst-2417845?e=d1ba443386
Updates
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 51 Confidence Index
52-54, 62, 64, 65, 71-76 Existing Home Sales
55-58 New Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
59 Total Home Sales
60, 61 Pending Home Sales
66-68 Case Shiller
69 CoreLogic Price Forecast
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/
resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 71-78 Inventory
https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 88 Showing Activity https://www.showingtime.com/blog/ 82, 83, 85, 86 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-
84 Mortgage Rate Projections
88, 89 Mortgage Credit Availability
Home Sales
Average Days on the Market
46 49 44 36 24 26 27 29 31 31 36 38 41 41 36 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 16 14 14 16 19 24 26 33 34 29 22 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr Source: NAR
2023
April
Existing Home Sales
Since January 2014
Source: NAR
3,800,000 4,300,000 4,800,000 5,300,000 5,800,000 6,300,000 6,800,000 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Existing Home Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Region
Source: NAR
-23.2% -23.9% -21.5% -20.2% -31.3% U.S.
South
Northeast Midwest
West
Existing Home Sales
Source: NAR
In Thousands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
New Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
New Home Sales
Source: Census
Annualized in Thousands 360 460 560 660 760 860 960 1060 jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
New Home Sales
by Price Range
0% 9% 20% 14% 11% 7% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K Source: Census
* *
Percent of Distribution
* Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.8 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr
Total Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 443 436 567 587 593 676 646 631 604 577 557 574 422 423 524 517 557 575 495 528 477 419 372 374 286 327 423 398 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
Pending Home Sales
Source: NAR
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
=
100
Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
Year-Over-Year by Region
Source: NAR
100 = Historically Healthy Level -20.3% -21.8% -21.4% -16.7% -26.0% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) represented 1% of Sales in April.
Source: NAR
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 4%
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes
Year-Over-Year, by Region
-1.7% 2.8% 1.8% -0.6% -8.0% U.S. Northeast Midwest West Source: NAR
South
% Change in Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Price Range
Source: NAR
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % -17.9% -24.9% -19.7% -28.7% -31.6% -36.5% -17.9% -24.9% -19.7% -28.7% -31.6% -36.5%
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source: S&P Case-Shiller 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source:
Case-Shiller
S&P
21.1% 21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0% 13.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.5% Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
Source: CoreLogic
US Home Price Insights – April 2023
Current Forecast
2.0% 4.6%
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory
Month-Over-Month, May 2023
Source: realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
2011 - Today 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr
Since 2019
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Source: NAR
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023 % 7. 5. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. -0 -0 -0 2. -0 1. 0. -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -9 -5 -5 -1 -6 -1 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -9 -8 -7 -9 -6 -6 -1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -9 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -4 2. 0. 0. -0 -0 2. 101515 5. 1.
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
-9.5% -10.4% -4.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 2.7% 10.2% 15.3% 15.3% 5.4% 1.0% Mar Apr May June July Aug Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr Sept Oct
New Home Monthly Inventory
Seasonally Adjusted, Last 12 Months
Source: Census
8.3 9.5 10.1 8.7 9.7 9.7 9.4 8.5 8.1 8.3 7.9 7.6 May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 23 Feb Mar Apr
New Home Monthly Inventory
Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Census
5.6 5.5 5.9 7.6 7.6 9.5 10.4 9.2 10.7 10.9 11.4 9.7 7.9 7.4 6.7 6.8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2022 2023
Buyer Demand
Showing Traffic Remains Elevated as Shoppers Face Greater Competition
Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, April 2023
Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, Showing Time“We expect to see showings begin to slow down for the year in April as the spring shopping season comes to a close. We are watching closely to see if the regular seasonal showing patterns continue and what they could mean for summer and fall home sales.”
Source: ShowingTime
-10.1% 0.3% -11.4% -14.0% -24.9% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West Northeast
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/4/2018 2/4/2018 3/4/2018 4/4/2018 5/4/2018 6/4/2018 7/4/2018 8/4/2018 9/4/2018 10/4/2018 11/4/2018 12/4/2018 1/4/2019 2/4/2019 3/4/2019 4/4/2019 5/4/2019 6/4/2019 7/4/2019 8/4/2019 9/4/2019 10/4/2019 11/4/2019 12/4/2019 1/4/2020 2/4/2020 3/4/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/4/2020 7/4/2020 8/4/2020 9/4/2020 10/4/2020 11/4/2020 12/4/2020 1/4/2021 2/4/2021 3/4/2021 4/4/2021 5/4/2021 6/4/2021 7/4/2021 8/4/2021 9/4/2021 10/4/2021 11/4/2021 12/4/2021 1/4/2022 2/4/2022 3/4/2022 4/4/2022 5/4/2022 6/4/2022 7/4/2022 8/4/2022 9/4/2022 10/4/2022 11/4/2022 12/4/2022 1/4/2023 2/4/2023 3/4/2023 4/4/2023 5/4/2023
Mac
Source: Freddie
6.79%
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today 6.79%
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/7/2016 2/7/2016 3/7/2016 4/7/2016 5/7/2016 6/7/2016 7/7/2016 8/7/2016 9/7/2016 10/7/2016 11/7/2016 12/7/2016 1/7/2017 2/7/2017 3/7/2017 4/7/2017 5/7/2017 6/7/2017 7/7/2017 8/7/2017 9/7/2017 10/7/2017 11/7/2017 12/7/2017 1/7/2018 2/7/2018 3/7/2018 4/7/2018 5/7/2018 6/7/2018 7/7/2018 8/7/2018 9/7/2018 10/7/2018 11/7/2018 12/7/2018 1/7/2019 2/7/2019 3/7/2019 4/7/2019 5/7/2019 6/7/2019 7/7/2019 8/7/2019 9/7/2019 10/7/2019 11/7/2019 12/7/2019 1/7/2020 2/7/2020 3/7/2020 4/7/2020 5/7/2020 6/7/2020 7/7/2020 8/7/2020 9/7/2020 10/7/2020 11/7/2020 12/7/2020 1/7/2021 2/7/2021 3/7/2021 4/7/2021 5/7/2021 6/7/2021 7/7/2021 8/7/2021 9/7/2021 10/7/2021 11/7/2021 12/7/2021 1/7/2022 2/7/2022 3/7/2022 4/7/2022 5/7/2022 6/7/2022 7/7/2022 8/7/2022 9/7/2022 10/7/2022 11/7/2022 12/7/2022 1/7/2023 2/7/2023 3/7/2023 4/7/2023 5/7/2023 Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rate Projections
June 2023 Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2023 Q3 6.20% 6.00% 6.10% 6.10% 2023 Q4 6.00% 5.60% 5.80% 5.80% 2024 Q1 5.80% 5.50% 5.60% 5.63% 2024 Q2 5.60% 5.30% 5.60% 5.50%
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates
Where Are They Going?
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.3 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate
Source: MBA
2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 Rate 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 5.3 5.7 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.5 5.3 5 4.8 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 - Actual - Projected 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2022 2024
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)
Source: MBA
April 2023 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Lending Standards Still Under Control
Source: MBA
Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 Apr 2023 Housing Bubble: 868.7 99.6