HL Commercial Report Fairfield County Second Half 2023

FA I R F I E L D CO U N T Y

Commercial Market Report

SECOND HALF 2023

THIS REPORT IS PREPARED BY

Executive Summary

Writer: Teresa Marziano, Real Estate Salesperson

SECOND HALF 2023

During the second half of 2023, the US Economy continued to demonstrate remarkable strength, anchored by surprising resilience in consumer spending. Multiyear high interest rates, nominal and real, appear not to have dented consumer’s desire to acquire wellness and unique experiences. Robust labor markets have encouraged consumers to feel confident in their spending habits. Employers, facing tight labor supply for a second consecutive year, have been willing to extend work flexibility and have provided a sense of stability to their workforces in order to secure their own corporate continuity and success.

Looking forward to 2024, it remains to be seen whether the Federal Reserve can achieve their objective of controlling inflation while maintaining the US economy on a growth path. However, consumer balance sheets are robust with remaining Pandemic savings.

This and the wealth effect of strong house prices, have provided a unique buffer to consumer’s confidence, and willingness to spend.

Consumer’s propensity to spend is unlikely to see drastic changes unless we start experiencing massive layoffs.

Fairfield’s economy has been historically propelled by service industries and continues to be in the sweet spot for growth and employment. Entertainment and hospitality industries, severely punished during the Pandemic, have made a forceful come back.

This, in turn, has provided a rebound in activity and an improved outlook for many retail properties, in Fairfield County and in other areas that enjoy the presence of a high disposable income population. The office sector continues to face challenges nationwide. The return to the office has taken place in an environment of severe labor shortages, resulting in multiple employer concessions and hybrid work formats that are still evolving, Class A offices in Fairfield are faring better than B and C offices and this pattern is similar to the experience of other suburban areas.

Overall, commercial real estate investment sales across property types are weak. A thawing of the transaction market is now in sight as there is increased confidence that the Federal Reserve will succeed in taming inflation, the interest rate hiking cycle has likely ended, and that rate cuts are probable for 2024.

Greenwich Retail Vacancy Drops Helped by Lower Rents Retail properties in Greenwich had a challenging Q3 and a recovery in Q4. A meaningful drop in occupancy, during the summer months, appeared to reverse the gains achieved in the first half of 2023. Later in the fall, an improvement in demand and some recovery in occupancy emerged, with all leasing activity concentrated in the direct market. Meanwhile, retail owners became tougher in negotiations, holding the line on discounts as they observed resilient consumer spending trends. As a result, Greenwich retail rental rates fully recovered by year end, ending 2023 at the best levels seen in late spring.

New hospitality and other service providers in the wellness categories continue to look for entry points into the Greenwich retail market. An example is Wichita Total Wine and More that opened last November at Greenwich Place. Among other new stores in Greenwich is Green & Tonic, a plant-based eatery with roots in CT, that is planning a new location in Glenville Plaza, owned by Sutton Land LLC. At the same time, Glenville Plaza is looking for a major supermarket to anchor the center and addressing parking issues to improve the attractiveness of the center.

Greenwich Offices Sustain Premium Pricing and Occupancy Nationally, the office sector continues to experience strong headwinds stemming from the work from home preferences developed by employees during the Pandemic. However, the Greenwich offices continue to be in an advantageous situation. Located amid prosperous suburbs and in a niche market for the financial services industry, its position continues to shine. Occupancy and lease rates remained remarkably stable over the second half of 2023.

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Executive Summary SECOND HALF 2023

Underscoring the fit and finish demands from users of office space in Greenwich is the announced renovation of 145 Mason St., located in downtown Greenwich. This Class A building owned by Win Properties is slated to undergo extensive interior and exterior renovations this year. After renovations, the building will be marketed for lease. Studios Architecture, an international design firm, has been selected to spearhead the project. The building’s attractive location, in proximity to the train, and potential rents given the location, justified the renovation.

Fairfield Retail Owners Gain Confidence on Pricing Despite a loss of occupancy, the frequency of lease inquiries has improved, and real estate owners feel more confident in holding the line on pricing and reducing concessions.

During the second half of 2023, there were 58,000 square feet of new retail space delivered to the market, negatively impacting occupancy. However, rental prices increased 5% during this period. In addition to pricing discipline, there is also a store mix factor impacting lease rate statistics; spaces with the greatest visibility and in locations that offer the most convenience -typically more costly- are leasing briskly at the expense of space with lower functionality. As a result average lease rate for the area has moved higher.

Greater Fairfield Office Owners Experience Headwinds Contrasting Greenwich’s office resilience, the greater Fairfield office market is showing occupancy and lease price weakness.

Vacancies are now over 16% and rents have declined over the last two quarters.

Despite headwinds, several major companies renewed their Fairfield leases in late 2023, according to the CT Insider. These companies include two Fortune 500 companies, toolmaker Stanley Black & Decker and online travel agency Booking Holdings, which respectively, renewed agreements for 60,000 square feet in New Britain and nearly 20,000 square feet in Norwalk. Other firms that renewed their leases included Purdue Pharma, which extended its stay in downtown Stamford with a renewal for more than 100,000 square feet.

Investment Transactions Remain at Depressed Levels Fairfield investment sales transactions remained at low levels due to the challenging environment that has been common across geographies. Scarce debt financing, wide bid-ask transaction spreads and investor’s lack of confidence in valuations has suppressed investments sales. Despite these headwinds, median transaction prices remained stable during the year.

HOULIHAN LAWRENCE COMMERCIAL TEAM Interesting commercial real estate investment opportunities will likely become available in the near future given the number of properties that will need to be refinanced in a vastly different interest rate environment. Liquidity is restrictive and poorly capitalized owners will seek to sell. However, there are numerous market and economic risks that will add to the complexities of acquiring commercial real estate. Understanding the market forces that are shaping the fundamentals for each property requires a deep knowledge of the property, local and regional insights, and close contacts with the right financial partners. Our Team is highly skilled in all these areas.

Reach out to HOULIHAN LAWRENCE COMMERCIAL for a complementary assessment of your real estate, an evaluation of a purchase target, and to receive an in-depth perspective on the dynamic Westchester commercial real estate market.

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Fairfield Unemployment at low levels consistent with National trends FAIRFIELD’S

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Fairfield’s unemployment rate has stabilized at a range that is similar to the pre-pandemic period. This bodes well for the local economy and real estate markets.

Unemployment Rate in Fairfield County, CT

13 12

PERCENT

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

Jan 2019

Jul 2019

Jan 2020

Jul 2020

Jan 2021

Jul 2021

Jan 2022

Jul 2022

Jan 2023

Jul 2023

YEAR

Sources: COSTAR, US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Rate and Fairfield’s Median Household Income, CT. All data retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; January 2024

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Office Space – Greenwich is Stable but Fairfield Weakens Greenwich Office Market has enjoyed stable fundamentals that include robust occupancy and pricing. Overall, it enjoys better prospects that most suburban office markets.

Fairfield office markets, resembling other office markets in the country, is experiencing departures that exceed new demand.

Vacancy Percentage

Office Gross Rent Overall

$70

VACANCY PERCENTAGE

95%

$60

94%

$50

93% 92%

$40

91%

$30

90%

$20

89%

$10

88% 87%

0 Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Q1 2022

Q2 2022

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

OFFICE FUNDAMENTALS WEAK

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Vacancy Percentage

Q4 2023

OFFICE GROSS RENT OVERALL

GREENWICH OFFICES – ROBUST FUNDAMENTALS AND M A R K E D LY D I F F E R E N T TO OT H E R O F F I C E M A R K E TS

Office Gross Rent Overall

VACANCY PERCENTAGE

85.5% $39.5 85.0% $39.0

84.5%

$38.5

84.0% 83.5%

$38.0

83.0%

$37.5

82.5%

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Q1 2022

Q2 2022

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

$37.0

OFFICE GROSS RENT OVERALL

$40.0

Sources: COSTAR, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Fairfield County and Greenwich office markets – January 2024

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Retail lease pricing improves in Greenwich and in the greater Fairfield area Greenwich retail real estate lost some occupancy in the second half of 2024 but started to recover toward year-end. Leasing rates rebounded as owners became encouraged by resilient economic trends in consumer spending.

The larger Fairfield markets are experiencing weakening occupancy but landlords are holding the line on pricing.

GREENWICH RETAIL - IMPROVING TREND

Vacancy Percentage

All Service Type Rent Overall

$60

96%

$50

95%

$40 $30

94%

$20

93%

$10 Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Q1 2022

Q2 2022

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

FAIRFIELD RETAIL - MAINTAINS PRICING

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Vacancy Percentage

All Service Type Rent Overall

$40

97.5%

$39

97.0%

$38

96.5%

$37

96.0%

$36

95.5%

$35

95.0%

$34

94.5% 94.0%

0

Q4 2023

$33 Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Q1 2022

Q2 2022

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

$32

ALL SERVICE TYPE RENT OVERALL

VACANCY PERCENTAGE

$70 97%

92%

VACANCY PERCENTAGE

ALL SERVICE TYPE RENT OVERALL

$80

98%

Sources: COSTAR, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Fairfield County and Greenwich office markets – January 2024

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Investment Activity Remains Depressed Similarly to other Markets Investment activity in the Fairfield County remains depressed due to the difficult financing environment, higher interest rates and uncertain valuations.

Dollar Volume (in thousands)

Median Price Per Building SF

$450 $120,000

$400 $350

$100,000

$300

$80,000

$250

$60,000

$200 $150

$40,000

$100 $20,000 0

$50 0 Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Q4 2021

Q1 2022

Q2 2022

Q3 2022

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Sources: COSTAR, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Fairfield County and Greenwich office markets – January 2024

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MEDIAN PRICE PER BLDG SF

DOLLAR VOLUME (IN THOUSANDS)

FAIRFIELD TRANSACTIONS REMAIN DEPRESSED