“A Cold War Relic as Strategic Burden”
The ongoing U.S. embargo on Cuba, far from serving a rational geopolitical interest, represents a severe act of self-imposed exclusion in economic, technological, and diplomatic domains. In a multipolar world defined by resilient logistics, regional cooperation, and global competition, this policy isolates the U.S. from a nearby and increasingly open economy while its competitors, allies, and even rivals, capitalize on the vacuum.
What the embargo blocks is not just Cuban development it blocks U.S. access to strategic opportunities in agriculture, energy, private entrepreneurship, infrastructure, scientific innovation, and regional influence. The embargo punishes U.S. companies and taxpayers more than its intended target, rendering it a Cold Warera ghost that haunts contemporary U.S. strategy.
The following updated table summarizes the measurable losses sustained by the United States under the embargo and the tangible benefits it would obtain from its removal. In every category economic, diplomatic, industrial the embargo results in self-isolation, while others gain access. This is not a cost-free stance: it is a continuous self-inflicted wound that undermines the very competitiveness the U.S. seeks to protect.
U.S.
Losses from Embargo
vs. Potential Gains from Normalized Relations with Cuba
Impact Area With Embargo (SelfImposed Restrictions) Without Embargo (Strategic Gains for the U.S.)
Agriculture No access to a nearby $2B/year food market
Pharma & Healthcare
Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI)
U.S. firms blocked from Cuban demand
$1.5B–$2B/year in U.S. agricultural exports
$500M/year in medicines, equipment, supplies
U.S. firms excluded from key sectors (tourism, energy, telecoms)
Tourism & Aviation Flights and cruises restricted; U.S. airlines lose business
Renewable Energy
$1.5B–$2B in FDI over 3 years
$1B/year in tourismrelated revenue
U.S. absent while China builds 2,000 MW of solar capacity Strategic leadership in Caribbean energy transition
Infrastructure
Private Sector (MIPYMES)
Supply Chains & Nearshoring
Port
Connectivity
Migration & Anti-
Drug Cooperation
Binational
Employment
U.S. excluded from critical modernization of roads, ports, grid
$3B–$5B in potential engineering & supply contracts
U.S. barred from engaging with 8,000+ new private businesses Early access to a growing entrepreneurial ecosystem
No role in regional relocation of supply chains
No direct integration with Mariel and regional hubs
Up to 40% reduction in logistics costs
Limited coordination; rising irregular flows
No U.S.-Cuba job creation in shared projects
Federal Revenue No tax gains from trade, investment, services
Link to Gulf Coast ports and Florida corridor
25% decrease in irregular migration via job creation
25,000+ jobs created across both countries
$500M–$1B/year in federal tax revenue
Geostrategic Influence
Diplomatic Perception
Technology &
Innovation
Global Image
China, Russia, EU, and South Korea expanding presence in Cuba
Global criticism for Cold War inconsistency; 187 UN votes against embargo
No role in joint AI, biotech, or clean tech ventures
Recovery of U.S. hemispheric influence through trade
Credibility boost through cooperative leadership
Potential for consortia in advanced sectors
Seen as punitive, outdated actor Repositioned as pragmatic, rules-based partner
Latin America Relations
Growing isolation from CELAC, BRICS, ALBA+
International Law Compliance Sanctions violate sovereignty norms (HelmsBurton Act)
Fiscal &
Strategic Balance
Estimated annual loss:
$4.5B–$5.5B
Renewed U.S. regional architecture via Cuba
Removal of illegal extraterritorial enforcement
Estimated annual gain:
$6B–$8B across sectors
