Beyond Politics: Embracing Strategic Economic Opportunities.

Embargo against Cuba (Losses) vs. lifting it (Profit).

Parameter / Domain With embargo (Losses for USA) Without Embargo (Potential Gains para USA)

Agricultural exports Misses access to a nearby market (~$2B/year) Gains between $1.5B and $2B annually in agricultural exports

Pharmaceutical and medical exports Cannot meet Cuban demand Gains up to $500M/year in medicines, equipment, and medical supplies

Foreign Direct

Investment (FDI)

U.S. companies excluded from competition

Estimated FDI of $1.5B–$2B over 3 years in key sectors

Tourism and aviation No structured air or tourism flow Potential of $1B/year in tourism-related and logistic services

Influence in the Caribbean

Cedes strategic ground to China, Russia, and the EU

Regains hemispheric presence and strategic leadership

Anti-drug/migration cooperation Limited coordination Improved operational and migratory cooperation

Supply chains Misses nearshoring opportunities Reduces logistical costs by up to 40% in select routes

Ports and connectivity No direct U.S.–Cuba port access Enhanced connection to the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern U.S. ports

Diplomatic perception Criticized for double standards Reinforces cooperative leadership, gains credibility in a multipolar world

Private sector and tech innovation U.S. firms constrained by legal barriers Access to Cuba’s growing private sector (over 8,000 MIPYMES)

Federal tax revenues Loses potential tax contributions Estimated increase of $500M–$1B/year in federal revenue

Bilateral employment No cross-border job creation Potential creation of 25,000 direct and indirect jobs

Total Estimated Impact

Annual loss to the U.S. economy:

$4.5B–$5.5B

Annual gain potential: $6B–$8B in trade, investment, and strategy