Effectiveness of Call-to-Action Warnings on Flash Flood Decision Making 1 Zhao ,
2 Selle ,
2 Kaplan
By: Eileen Jessica & Zachary 2 Hofstra GEOTeam advised By Dr. Jase Bernhardt 1North
Shore High School, Glen Head, NY, 2Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY Discussion
Results • Message 0: National Weather Service: FLASH FLOOD WARNING for this area until 08:00 PM. This is a dangerous situation. Do not attempt to travel. (Current standard message) • Message 1: National Weather Service: FLASH FLOOD WARNING for this area until 08:00 PM. This is a dangerous situation. Turn Around Don't Drown. (Test warning message) • Message 2: BREAKING: Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the Super Bowl. (Control message)
• More participants who received Message 1, the call to action (Turn Around Don't Drown), survived than participants who received either Message 0 or Message 2 (Figure 1). • While data for many demographic categories were collected, they were found to be impactful. For example, when comparing male and female participants, the percentage of each that survived and drowned was nearly equal (Figure 2). • Previous real-life experience was shown to be slightly helpful, however, the reports of experience were low, and outcome was more tied to message than experience (Figures 3 & 4). • Participants who received a warning message were more likely to believe that receiving a message was important. Those who received the control message believed that messages were less helpful (Figures 4 & 5). • When asked about the impact and helpfulness of the simulation, those who received a warning message were more likely to report that they thought the simulation was both impactful and helpful (Figure 5). • Survivors of the simulation were more likely to believe that the simulation was impactful and helpful than those who drowned (Figure 6).
Introduction • Flash floods are dangerous and sudden natural events often caused by heavy rainfall. Their damage cost the US $3.75 Billion in 2019 alone (Statista, 2021). • In the US, flood warning are sent by the National Weather Service as text notifications to the phones of nearby individuals which includes the return period or magnitude of the event. (Schroeder, 2016) • In order to reduce the loss of life, developing emergency evacuation plans for flood events and informing individuals living in flood-prone areas about flood risks and evacuation procedures are crucial. (Musolino, 2020) • Many people evacuate during the midst of the event, placing them at risk for flash flooding on the road. • The goal of this study was to determine if these phone notifications are helpful at ensuring that individuals can make smart decisions about how to navigate severe weather events.
Conclusion Figure 1 shows the percentage of participants who drowned or survived based on which message they received.
Figure 2 shows outcome of participant based on reported gender.
• Impact based warnings for severe weather containing a callto-action such as "Turn Around Don't Drown" are more effective than no message and the current standard warning message.
Acknowledgements Funding for this project was provided by NSF Award #1911514 and UCAR SUBAWD002443.
References Musolino, Giovanni, et al. “Mapping the Danger to Life in Flash Flood Events Adopting a Mechanics Based Methodology and Planning Evacuation Routes.” Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol. 13, no. 4, 2020, doi:10.1111/jfr3.12627. Schroeder, Amanda J., et al. “The Development of a Flash Flood Severity Index.” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 541, 2016, pp. 523–532., doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.005.
Methodology
Statista Research Department. (2021, January 15). Economic damage caused by floods and flash floods in the U.S. from 1995 to 2019. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/237420/economic-damage-caused-by-floods-and-flash-floods-in-the-us/.
Figure 3 shows to what extent participants' real-world experience impacted their experience. 1 indicated not impactful and 5 indicated very impactful.
Figure 4 shows that participants who received actual warning messages agreed that a warning message was impactful to their decision-making process. 1 indicated not impactful and 5 indicated very impactful.
Figure 5 shows that participants who received Message 1 thought the warning was much more impactful in comparison to Message 0 and Message 2.
Figure 6 shows that participants who survived found the simulation impacted their behavior much more than those who drowned.
• A flash flood driving simulation was created in Unity. • During the simulation, drivers received one of three text notifications on their virtual phone, alerting them to either the potential of flood conditions or a control text with a news update. • Eventually, the participants would arrive at a flooded road where they could drive through, stop, or turn around. • After the simulation was completed, the participants were given a code to a survey asking for their thought about the experience and flooding in general. • The survey was distributed through Qualtrics to 287 random US participants after exposure to the simulation.
Images sources: Wikimedia Commons