ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 RISK ON CRUISE SHIPS DURING 30 DECEMBER – 12 JANUARY Professor Kim Wikström, PhD Jonas Spohr, MSc Joakim Sjöblom Åbo Akademi University and PBI Research Institute Date: February 1st, 2022
Executive summary •
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For the analyzed period, the hospitalization rates due to COVID-19 on cruise ships is very low (34 per 100,000 COVID-19 cases) compared to land (2,786 per 100,000 COVID-19 cases), which is probably due to high vaccination rates on the ships Positive COVID-19 cases are more likely to go undetected on shore compared to on cruise ships, as the cruise liners assumingly have a very high test frequency. During the period 31.6 million COVID-19 tests were made in the U.S, so clearly less that 10% of the U.S population was tested.
Background This analysis is based on data received from CLIA on January 27th including information on number of passengers, crew and COVID-19 hospitalization rates for ships sailing from U.S. ports from 30 December – 12 January. The data shows that in December the ships carried a total of 310,825 passengers and had 105,596 crew members. We did not get information on positive COVID-19 cases for passengers and crew separately and therefore do not include a incidence rate analysis. The benchmark on shore data for this analysis was collected on January 31st from ourworldindata.org. Analysis Table 1 shows the hospitalization rates due to COVID-19 on ships and on shore. The on ship hospitalization number (5) includes medevacs (4). There was no separatation of passengers and crew in the data. Calculated on the average population on ships and on shore, the hospitalization rate on ships has been very low in relation to the overall COVID-19 cases reported. The low levels of severe COVID-19 cases that required hospitalization on ship is most likely due to the high vaccination rates among passengers on ships.
Table 1. On-ship vs. on-shore US hospitalization rates Hospitalization rates 30 Dec - 12 Jan, United States Persons on ship that Hospitalization needed hospitalization due rate per 100k to CLI or COVID-19 during PAX+Crew during period period, on ship
5
2.09
Hospitalizations per 100k COVID-19 cases, on ship
New hospital admissions with Hospitalization rate confirmed COVID-19 per 100k inhab. during during period, on period, on shore shore
34
269 067
80.82
Hospitalizations per 100k COVID-19 cases, on shore
2 786
Positive COVID-19 cases are more likely to go undetected on shore compared to on cruise ships as the cruise liners have a very high test frequency. During the period 31.6 million COVID-19 tests were made 1