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Many“bystander”countriesgrewtheirexportsofThispaperdocumentstheimpactoftheUS–ChinatradewaronfirmsworldwideBasedondataonmorethan vethousandlistedrmsincountries,IestablishthatrmswithexportexposuretoChinahavehadalineinrevenue,protsandcapitalstockssincethetradewarbegan.
AbstractBycalibratinganeconomywiththeUnitedStates,ChinaandVietnam,thispaperestimatesthat,intermsofaggregaterealincome,thetradewarcosts China$billion,or%ofGDP,costsUS$billion,orTheUS–ChinaTradeWar:EconomicStatecraft,MultinationalCorporations,andPublicOpinionForitspart, followingUS-ChinaTradeWarandItsGlobalImpactsHowdidtheUS-Chinatradewarafectglobaltrade?Thiscasediscussesthepatternsofinternational tradeandcapitalflowsacrossthetwocountries,determinantsoftradeimbalances,andtheroleofnationalsavings,policies,institutions,andexchangeratesThis paperstudiesglobaltraderesponsestotheUS-ChinatradewarManagingtheUS-ChinaTradeWarranksamongthemostdificultfor-eignpolicychallengesfor theBidenadministration.Abstract:WithhighgrowthratesduringthepasttwoadesandthelargesttradesurpluswiththeUnitedStates,TheUnitedStatesand ChinahavebeenembroiledinwhatBeijinghascalledthe“biggesttradewarineconomichistorysinceearly,whenWashingtonimposedpunitiveTheauthors identifyfourmainreasonsthatledtothegreatesttradeconflictbetweenthetwoeconomiesinhistoryassociatedwithintentionsoftheUS:a)toreducethedeficitof bilateralAbstract:ThispaperstudiesthecurrenttradewarbetweenChinaandtheUSfromahistoricalstandpointSurprisingly,exportsofproductstaxedbyUS orChinaincreasedfrom“bystander”countriestotherestofworldOurpaperaimstostudytheongoingtradewarbetweenChinaandtheUSfromahistorical pointofviewBydrawingonparallelsand,asimportantly,distinctionsfrompreviousABSTRACTThiseectisstrongerinindustriesinwhichAbstractThetrade warcanprincipallybeattributedtotradeThispaperdocumentstheimpactoftheUS–ChinatradewaronrmsworldwideBasedondataonmorethanfive thousandlistedfirmsincountries,IestablishthatfirmswithTheauthorsidentifyfourmainreasonsthatledtothegreatesttradeconflictbetweenthetwoeconomies inhistoryassociatedwithintentionsoftheUS:a)toreducethedeficitofTheUnitedStateshaslaunchedaneconomicwaronChina,throughtheimpositionof taxesongoodsimportedfromChinaworthmilliondollarsBycomparingtheongoingtradewarwithsimilartradeconflictsinhistory,werevealthreemajorcauses, withvaryingdegreesofimportance,frombotheconomicandpoliticalperspectivesOnaverage,countriesreasedexportstoChinaandincreasedexportstothe USandrestofworldFinally,thispaperdoeswelfareanalysistostudytradewar’swelfareeectsontheUnitedStates,China,andthirdcountriesTheUS-China tradewarcreatednetexportopportunitiesratherthansimplyshiftingtradeacrossdestinationsItshouldnotbeweigheddownbymisguidedTrump-erathinkingon thestrategicvirtuesoftarifsTheUS-Chinatradewarinledtomajorshiftsinglobaltradeandsupplychains,highlightingtherecenttrendindeglobalizationShiping Hua1andKaZeng2*DepartmentofPoliticalScience,UniversityofLouisvilleItestimatesthetariffimpactsonproduct-levelexportstotheUS,China,andrestof worldDanSteinbock