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TO:

Interested Parties

FROM:

Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates

RE:

Key Finding from Recent Survey of Assembly District 18 Voters

DATE:

August 30, 2012

Fairbank,
 Maslin,
 Maullin,
 Metz
 &
 Associates
 (FM3)
 recently
 conducted
 a
 survey
 of
 400
 voters
 in
 Assembly
District
18
likely
to
vote
in
the
November
2012
Presidential
election.i
 Although
the
majority
of
 the
electorate
remains
undecided,
the
survey
results
show
Abel
Guillen
with
a
five
point
lead
over
 Rob
 Bonta
 in
 an
 initial
 match­up
 before
 respondents
 are
 offered
 any
 biographical
 information
 about
the
candidates
or
messaging.


Guillen
Enters
General
Election
with
5‐point
Lead
over
Bonta Figure 1: Assembly District 18 November General Election “In the election for State Assembly, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE): Candidate Abel Guillen Rob Bonta Guillen Lead

All Voters 26% 21% +5

Oakland 29% 17% +12

Alameda 23% 37% (-14)

San Leandro 19% 14% +5

NOTE: Given Rob Bonta’s focus on Alameda in his ballot designation, Guillen updated his ballot designation for the general election to “Oakland/Educator/Boardmember.”


 Guillen’s
Lead
Expands
After
Voters
Learn
More
about
the
Candidates



General
 Election
 voters
 also
 responded
 very
 favorably
 to
 Guillen’s
 profile
 after
 they
 heard
 more
 information
about
both
candidates.

After
being
presented
with
positive
biographical
descriptions
of
each
 of
 the
 AD
 18
 candidates,
 Guillen’s
 lead
 increases
 from
 5
 to
 7
 points,
 expanding
 his
 base
 of
 support
 in
 Oakland
and
with
other
key
constituencies
in
AD18. Figure 2: Assembly District 18 November General Election “In the election for State Assembly, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE): Candidate Abel Guillen Rob Bonta Guillen Lead

First Vote 26% 21% +5

Vote After Bios Bio Vote 39% 32% +7

Gain +13% +11%

NOTE: The Bonta biography tested was taken directly from the poll released publicly in June by the Bonta campaign.


AD 18 Voter Survey—August 2012 Page 2

Guillen Bio Abel Guillen grew up in a working-class neighborhood and was the first in his family to graduate from college, earning a master’s degree from UC Berkeley. Guillen has dedicated his life to helping local schools, creating jobs, and fighting to protect our community from corporate special interests. Guillen served two terms as a Community College Board Member representing Laney, Merritt, Berkeley City College and the College of Alameda. He expanded college access and provided scholarships for thousands of local students and protected job-training programs from state budget cuts. When he discovered that Wall Street banks were charging huge fees and making risky investments with our colleges’ funds, he took action and moved our money into local, community-based banks, putting our district’s dollars back to work here in the East Bay. Guillen is endorsed by teachers, nurses, environmentalists, the California Latino Legislative Caucus, Democratic clubs and progressive leaders. (147 word count) Bonta Bio Rob Bonta learned the value of public service early on. Both of his parents were active with the United Farm Workers and the civil rights movement. Rob Bonta is the Vice Mayor of the city of Alameda. He is also a Deputy City Attorney, and his job is to protect consumers. Bonta is married and the father of three children in public schools. On the Alameda City Council, Bonta has strengthened public safety, reduced pension costs and balanced his city’s budget, and has improved city services for residents. Bonta is also working with the Obama Administration to develop land at a former naval base in Alameda -- a project that will create nine thousand local jobs at no cost to taxpayers. Bonta is endorsed by police officers and firefighters in Oakland, Alameda, and San Leandro, by school employees, by doctors, and by the San Francisco Chronicle. (146 word count) 


These
results
more
accurately
reflect
the
state
of
the
race
than
research
conducted
 by
the
Bonta
campaign
in
June,
which
was
based
on
an
incorrect
ballot
designation
 for
 Abel
 Guillen
 and
 utilized
 incorrect
 information
 for
 Guillen’s
 biographical
 statement.

In
contrast,
this
poll
tested
Gullen’s
actual
ballot
designation
against
the
 designation
 filed
 by
 Bonta,
 as
 well
 as
 an
 accurate
 description
 of
 Guillen’s
 background
 test
 against
 the
 Bonta
 biography,
 taken
 from
 the
 poll
 released
 by
 his
 campaign
in
June.

 


More
than
2/3rds
of
voters
prefer
Guillen’s
support
for
public
employee
pensions
and
high
 speed
rail.

A
slim
minority
of
AD18
voters
agree
with
Rob
Bonta’s
statements
on
pension
 reforms
and
high
speed
rail
 Recently,
 the
 Oakland
 Tribune
 wrote
 that
 there
 were
 only
 a
 few
 key
 distinctions
 between
 the
 two
 candidates.

The
Tribune
editorial
board
wrote
that
Bonta
“speaks
more
forcefully
for
pension
reform
and
 about
the
state’s
misguided
high‐speed
rail
plan.”
 With
 these
 two
 issues
 as
 key
 differences
 between
 the
 candidates,
 we
 tested
 Guillen’s
 positions
 on
 pensions
 and
 on
 high
 speed
 rail
 compared
 to
 Bonta’s
 positions
 as
 reported
 in
 the
 Tribune.
 The
 survey
 results
 show
 that
 voters
 in
 AD18
 overwhelmingly
 support
 Abel
 Guillen’s
 positions
 on
 these
 key
 issues
 and
repel
against
Bonta’s
stance.




AD 18 Voter Survey—August 2012 Page 3

Voters Prefer Guillen’s Position on Public Employee Pensions Figure 3: Assembly District 18 November General Election “Now I am going to read several pairs of descriptions of potential candidates for State Assembly. After I read each pair, please tell me which candidate you prefer” Candidate Description

Voter Preference

(Bonta‐
Oakland
Tribune
8/10/12)

 A
candidate
who
speaks
forcefully
on
pension
reform
for
public
 employees







OR

24%

(Guillen)
 A
 candidate
 who
 believes
 public
 employees
 like
 teachers
 deserve
a
secure
retirement
and
should
be
able
to
keep
the
pension
 they
earned.


67%

Voters Side with Guillen’s Position in Support of High Speed Rail Figure 4: Assembly District 18 November General Election “Now I am going to read several pairs of descriptions of potential candidates for State Assembly. After I read each pair, please tell me which candidate you prefer” Candidate Description

Voter Preference

(Bonta‐
Oakland
Tribune
8/10/12)

 A
candidate
who
is
opposed
to
the
state’s
high
speed
rail
plan

OR

20%

(Guillen) A
 candidate
 who
 supports
 the
 Governor’s
 plan
 to
 build
 a
 high
 speed
 rail
 train
 creating
 thousands
 of
 good
 jobs
 and
 new
 transportation
solutions
in
California

72%

Overall, the survey results demonstrate that Abel Guillen is well positioned to win the Assembly District race in November. Guillen leads the race in an unaided vote and broadens his support after voters learn more about each of the candidates. The results further demonstrate that Guillen’s positions on public employee pensions and high speed rail are more in tune with the electorate than those of his opponent, Rob Bonta, which adds to Guillen’s strength in the general election. i

Methodology: From August 23-27 2012, FM3 completed a survey of 402 Assembly District 18 voters likely to cast ballots in the November 2012 Presidential election. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/-4.9%. Some results do not total to 100% because of rounding.


AD 18 Key Findings