Final A2
Options SA Objectives
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Existing Supply
Trend Based Completions
South East Plan Requirements
Under this scenario, a -/+ considerable proportion of development will occur within rural and coastal areas (some 57% of total development) and the proportion of housing to each area reasonably well matches the areas of need. However, the total number of affordable homes constructed under this scenario will fall short of total affordable housing demand.
Under this scenario, a -/0 considerable amount of development will occur within rural and coastal areas (some 57% of total development) and the proportion of housing to each area reasonably well matches the areas of need. However, the total number of affordable homes constructed under this scenario will fall short of total affordable housing demand.
However, the quantity of employment land provided under this scenario will provide a modest increase in jobs above the increase in labour force. This may provide job opportunities for rural and coastal communities, although given the small increase in number of jobs (1.7% increase compared to jobs in 2011) this is not considered to be significant. However, given that both office and industrial land will be provided under this scenario the skill set required may better match the skill set of the rural and coastal communities.
The out-migration caused as a result of not meeting housing demand will be such that the labour supply in the district, including rural areas, will decrease. There is the potential for some of the existing jobs to be filled by rural and coastal population hence reducing unemployment in these areas; however, this will depend on how well the required skill set for these jobs matches the skill sets in these communities. Overall it is expected that the number of jobs supported will remain the same, which suggests that rural economy will remain stable.
Canterbury is a University town with a young mobile student population. However, Canterbury’s ability to retain newly qualified University graduates will be negatively affected by the low level of housing provision and represents a missed opportunity to further develop a highly skilled local workforce. A decreasing workforce and spend in the district is likely to lead to decreased investment from businesses and services in the district which will further encourage out-migration exacerbating the overall problem. Construction jobs will be generated but given the temporary nature of the jobs and the small scale of construction required this will be very small compared to the total number of jobs lost due to a declining population.
2. Rural/Coastal Communities To sustain vibrant rural and coastal communities.
The provision of 150 dwellings a -year (spread across the district) will fall far short of meeting the housing requirements within rural and coastal areas (including the demand for affordable housing demand). In consequence, this is reflected in the significant negative score against this objective. The lack of homes through the district, including rural areas, will lead to significant out-migration especially by young people and growing families, which will considerably decrease the labour force. As a result, the scenario anticipates a reduction in economic activity, to the point where some 8,480 existing jobs will be lost. There is potential for some of the jobs ‘lost’ to be filled by currently unemployed workers from Canterbury’s rural and coastal communities; however, there will still be a very significant shortfall due to a lack of relevant skills and experience in the workforce. Therefore, it is expected that under this scenario there will be significantly negative effects on the rural economy. The lack of economic growth across the district will also affect the resilience of the coastal communities and may due to lack of inward investment, unduly affect those communities already experience some degree of disadvantage or deprivation.
Furthermore, the construction of 617 dwellings a year will provide some localised construction employment, which could be met by appropriately skilled workers living in coastal and rural communities. Similarly, there will be some indirect spend on services which could benefit the wider population.
Although there is likely to be some localised employment for construction of the homes, which could be provided from appropriately skilled workers within rural and coastal communities, given the scale of construction the total number of jobs is considered to be small and insignificant when compared to the total jobs lost due to out-migration.
However, the construction of 510 dwellings a year will provide some localised construction employment, which could be met by appropriately skilled workers living in coastal and rural communities. Similarly, there will be some indirect spend on services which could benefit the wider population.
Protect and enhance the physical and natural environment 3. Water Quality To protect and improve
As is the case with any 0 construction project the construction of 3,000 new homes over 20
© AMEC Environment & Infrastructure UK Limited June 2012 Doc Reg No. 16903rr19i2
Depending on the location of the developments, the proximity to water bodies and the prevailing quality of
Depending on the location of the developments, the proximity to water bodies and the prevailing quality of