Terrorism
A drone flying near a commercial aircraft. © Shutterstock
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preferring to stay with tried-and-tested approaches to achieve mayhem. But for the so-called lone wolf, someone who does not intend to die but plans to escape and mount further attacks in a campaign, the calculus is somewhat different. Buy a drone, use information that is readily available online to build a simple explosive device that can be detonated remotely, and you have the capability to strike at a time and place of your choosing. Such a scenario is not outside the bounds of probability. Incidents of near misses with drones at airports are on the increase. In the six months leading up to March 2016, there were 23 near misses reported across the United Kingdom. Twelve of these were so close that they were given an ‘A’ rating by the Air Proximity Board. In one incident, a military Lynx helicopter had to take evasive action to avoid colliding with a drone in the county of Hampshire. The pilot reported that the drone had come within one rotor’s width of hitting the helicopter. Other events have occurred as aircraft are on approach or taking off from major UK airports, such as Southampton, Stansted, Manchester, London City, and Heathrow. More recently events have also occurred at Birmingham Airport. Similar stories are emerging in other western countries. Given this pattern, how might a terrorist use a drone to attack an aircraft? The good news is that trying to deliberately fly a drone into an aircraft is very difficult. It would be unlucky for a drone to be sucked into an engine, although should this occur, it might create the conditions for a catastrophic failure that could see the engine catch fire. The effectiveness of such an attack would be hugely dependent upon the phase of flight that the aircraft was in. For a fully-fuelled aircraft on take-off, it could be very serious. On landing, a sudden drone strike that smashed into the cockpit windscreen or entered an engine would create major problems for the pilot and co-pilot. Both could be blinded at a critical moment. While windscreens have been developed to withstand a bird strike, the mass of a drone is different. Its lithium battery is a significant weight, and the drone is compact and solid, not at all like the body of a bird. This is a very different scale of problem.
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However, this is only one possible mode of attack. Deliberately trying to fly a drone into an engine of an aircraft travelling at over one hundred knots on approach is not easy. It would involve a lot of luck. But drone research is ongoing and military developments in swarming drones – so they act as a unit even though they are separate platforms – could change the nature of the threat if it filters down into the public domain. Placing a ‘hunting group’ of drones into the pathway of a civilian jet is an altogether different and scarier prospect. For those tempted to dismiss such ideas, it is worth reflecting on how often technologies built for the military world later appear in civilian forms. And a high percentage of the work currently underway on multiple drone technology is taking place in unguarded university laboratories. How to address such potential threats? Regulators need to start thinking innovatively. If we are to avoid a major tragedy, where hundreds of people are killed in an air crash caused either accidentally or deliberately by drones, some enforcement of the current regulations concerning flying drones near airports needs to occur. This is because other options are limited. Trying to shoot down a drone when aircraft are in the vicinity is not an option. Jamming the control links might also have unpredictable effects, making a drone veer suddenly and potentially creating an even more dangerous situation. So, the answer lies in detection and regulation. Airports need to deploy emerging technologies that can detect drones, and law enforcement authorities must be ready and available to arrest those who are ignoring drone regulations, whether they are aviation enthusiasts or terrorists. No drone should be operated near a major airport. When pilots report a drone, it also needs to be followed up effectively, which is not always the case currently. Today’s detection technologies mean that a drone can be detected, tracked back to its landing site, and the pilot arrested. The sanctions for flying near an airport need to be severe. Imprisonment and fines should send a message. Deterrence is an important aspect of a comprehensive approach to the problem. As ever in such a situation, the ‘do-nothing’ option is simply not viable. This stable door has to be kept shut before the horse bolts.
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