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While it may seem like Harris is leading, the reality is much more complicated. In the past, polls have tended to under-predict Trump’s support on Election Day. The real story, if you ask me, is what young voters will do. Young voters will be especially important this cycle: For the first time, Gen Z and millennials will make up nearly HALF of the eligible voting population. In 2020, young voter turnout was 50% a big improvement from previous years and a possible sign of another high turnout in 2024.
But remember national polls are an indicator of general support, but they’re not how we elect a president. To be clear, the Electoral College, not the popular vote, decides the presidency. What does that all mean? As always, this election will be decided by voter turnout in specific places. In particular, voters in a handful of swing states Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Georgia will decide our future. Here’s where those races stand, according to an average of solid polls:
The presidential race is tight, a tie, a tie. But don’t take my word for it, or anyone else’s. No matter what you hear, no one really knows what’s going to happen. Polls aren’t always accurate, but they’re all we have. So here’s what we know: Nationally, the race is tied, plus or minus a few points. Despite the ups and downs, it’s clear that support for former President Trump remains high, even though Harris’s campaign has been on a roll since the vice president secured the top spot on the Democratic ticket this summer.
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