Hawaii’s Population Decline Signals Future Economic Challenges Hawaii is one of just nine states that lost population in 2018, reflecting a level of outmigration far deeper than the brain drain of past years. By Stewart Yerton / April 4, 2019
After all, fewer people means less demand for housing, which puts a lid on prices. And it means fewer potential workers, which can push wages up. So who could argue with cheaper housing and fatter paychecks? Economists and demographers say it’s not that simple. “What you just described is what was good about the Black Death,” said Paul Brewbaker, a Kailua-based economist, referring to the plague that wiped out as much as half of Europe’s population in the 14th century. Fewer people might mean less competition for resources, but it’s a bad sign for the economy and part of a trend that could have dire consequences down the road. “There’s something rotten in Denmark if everybody’s leaving Denmark,” said Brewbaker, former chief economist for Bank of Hawaii who is now principal of TZ Economics. It’s a topic that’s gone far beyond wonkish academic discussions. The idea of a brain drain in Hawaii is nothing new; what’s different now is the situation has tipped to a point where Hawaii has fewer and fewer people, even though there are more people being born than dying. Many worry Hawaii’s high cost of living and dearth of higher paying jobs is causing people to flee the state, even as the overall economy has seen strong growth and the tourism industry soars.