The Nail, February 2020

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President David Hughes Vice President Steve Shalibo Secretary/Treasurer Nick Wisniewski Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

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FEATURES 9 2020 HBAMT Home Show this month!

The HBAMT Home Show opens this month at the Fairgrounds Nashville!

11 Home Show seminar schedule announced Look for these informative seminars at the Home Show Saturday, February 8th.

12 Event Layout and Exhibitor Directory

A complete listing of all the 2020 Home Show exhibitors and where to find their exhibit booths.

14 2020 Battle of the Build

The first annual “Battle of the Build� will be held at the Home Show, an educational competition between students of local high school construction programs.

Advertise in

THE

NAIL Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

18 Millennials & the Mortgage Market

Millennials will dominate the 2020 mortgage market say economists.

DEPARTMENTS 6 News & Information 19 SPIKE Club Report 20 February Calendar 20 Chapters and Councils ON THE COVER: The 2020 HBAMT Home Show opens this month. More details on page nine.

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NEWS&INFO

2019 new home sales up 10% over previous year

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ales of newly built, single-family homes declined 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000 units in December, coming off a downward revision in November, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The monthly number is 23% higher than the December 2018 pace. An estimated 681,000 new homes were sold in 2019, 10.3% higher than in 2018.

“High levels of home builder confidence, coupled with an insufficient existing housing supply to meet current demand, suggest growth ahead for new home sales this year,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon.

Lower mortgage interest rates accelerated new home sales during the second half of 2019, marking it as the best year for new home sales since the recession.

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“Despite the slow start for housing in 2019, lower mortgage interest rates accelerated new home sales during the second half of the year, marking it as the best year for new home sales since the recession,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed.

In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the December reading of 694,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

Inventory has been trending lower over the course of 2019 and now stands at a healthy 5.7 months’ supply, with 327,000 new single-family homes for sale. Of that total, just 78,000 are completed, ready to occupy. The median sales price was $331,400. The median price of a new home sale a year earlier was $329,700.

Regionally, and on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are 10.1% higher in the Midwest and 31% higher in the West. Sales are down 11.8% in the Northeast and 15.4% in the South. n

Housing starts finish year strong, builder confidence up

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otal housing starts increased 16.9% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.61 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Housing and Urban Development and Commerce Department.

This is a 13-year high for housing starts.

The December reading of 1.61 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if they kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 11.2% to a 1.06 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 29.8% to a 553,000 pace.

Total housing starts for 2019 were 1.29 million, a 3.2% gain over the 1.25 total from 2018.

Single-family starts in 2019 totaled 888,200, up 1.4% from the previous year. Multifamily starts were up 7.3% from the previous year.

“The solid housing production numbers are in line with strong builder sentiment, supported by a low supply of existing homes, low mortgage rates and a strong labor market,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

“The year ended on a high note with solid gains in single-family and multifamily production,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s Assistant Vice President of Forecasting and Analysis. “And while the De-

cember estimates will likely be revised down, the trend moving forward is still positive.”

On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts in December are 3% higher in the Northeast and 8.6% higher in the South. Starts are down 0.8% in the Midwest and 4.7% in the West.

Overall permits, which are a harbinger of future housing production, decreased 3.9% to a 1.42 million unit annualized rate in December. Single-family permits decreased 0.5% to a 916,000 rate while multifamily permits also fell 9.6% to a 500,000 pace.

Looking at regional permit data on a yearto-date basis, permits are 13.4% higher in the Northeast, 0.1% higher in the Midwest, 5.1% in the South and 0.1% higher in the West.

Builder confidence starts year strong Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes edged one point lower to 75 in January, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The last two monthly readings mark the highest sentiment levels since July 1999.

“Low interest rates and a healthy labor market combined with a need for additional inventory are setting the stage for further home build-

Strong attendance at 2020 IBS reflects industry optimism

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early 65,000 home building professionals from around the world filled the exhibit halls of the Las Vegas Convention Center as NAHB hosted one of the largest turnouts in recent years at the NAHB® International Builders’ Show (IBS) Jan. 21-23.

IBS and the Kitchen & Bath Industry Show (KBIS) once again combined for the annual Design & Construction Week® (DCW), which drew a total of approximately 90,000 attendees.

“The strong attendance at this year’s show reflects the positive outlook for the home building industry and the enthusiasm that our attendees have for the future,” said Geoff Cassidy, NAHB senior vice president of exhibitions and meetings. “Attendees continue to seek the innovative products, education sessions and networking

opportunities that only IBS can provide.”

Exhibit space for IBS totaled approximately 600,000 square feet, where more than 1,400 exhibitors displayed the latest in building products and technology.

In all, DCW featured more than 2,000 exhibitors occupying more than one million square feet of indoor and outdoor exhibits. Many of the

ing gains in 2020,” said Ugalde.

“With the Federal Reserve on pause and attractive mortgage rates, the steady rise in single-family construction that began last spring will continue into 2020,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, builders continue to grapple with a shortage of lots and labor, while buyers are frustrated by a lack of inventory, particularly among starter homes.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The HMI index charting traffic of prospective buyers increased one point to 58, the highest level since December 2017. The gauge measuring current sales conditions fell three points to 81, and the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 79.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose one point to 62, the Midwest increased three points to 66, and the West moved one point higher to 84. The South remained unchanged at 76. n

exhibitors noted the strong foot traffic this year.

“It’s been a great show for us,” said Darren Salapka, vice president of builder experience at Allegion Home, a representative at the Schlage booth. “We’ve had a lot of traffic, a lot of good interactions and really good meetings throughout the day.”

In addition to meeting suppliers and seeing product demos throughout the three-day show, attendees networked with peers and attended any of more than 140 education sessions led by experts on a wide range of industry topics.

Next year, IBS and Design & Construction Week will be in Orlando, Feb. 9-11, 2021. n

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The HBAMT Home Show is an annual event celebrating its 66th year in middle Tennessee. Everyone enjoys attending the show and taking part in the wide variety of activities that are available each day. In addition to all the vendor exhibit booths and product demonstrations, attendees at this year’s show will enjoy a front row seat to the HBAMT’s “Battle of the Build”, an educational competition between local high school construction programs to build the most impressive and well-designed structure.

“The Home Show is designed to offer consumers all sorts of home improvement information,” says Andy Neuman, Home Show Chairman. “Anyone seeking to update their home will get some good ideas at the show. This year we’re filling the show with new and exciting products and services for homes of every size and style. And we’re very excited to be able to host the ‘Battle of the Build’ competition and share the construction projects completed by local students with attendees.”

If you are in the market for home improvement products or services you don’t want to miss the 2020 HBAMT Home Show! The annual event

will be open for a busy three-day weekend Friday, February 7 at the Fairgrounds Nashville in Nashville, Tennessee.

ABOUT THE SHOW

If you are in the market for home improvement products or services you won’t want to miss the 2020 Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee (HBAMT) Home Show! The annual event will open for a busy three-day weekend Friday, February 7 inside the brand new, state-of-the-art exhibitor’s building at the Fairgrounds Nashville in Nashville, Tennessee.

The 2020 HBAMT Home Show will be open February 7-9 at the Fairgrounds Nashville, Friday through Sunday, 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. daily. General admission tickets are available at the gate for $8.00 per person. Children 12 and under are free.

Seniors receive $2 off each ticket on Friday (2/7).

For more information about the show please visit the Home Show page at www.thehomeshow.org.

The Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee (HBAMT) is a voluntary non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

For more details: www.thehomeshow.org February, 2020

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2020 HBAMT HOME SHOW SEMINAR SCHEDULE 2020 HBAMT HOME SHOW SEMINARS - SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 8th Don’t miss these great seminars taking place on Saturday during the show!

TOPIC TIME Foundation Waterproofing Health of Home and Structure Presented by: Frontier Basement

10:30 a.m.

Properly Insuring Your Home 11:00 a.m.

Presented by: Farmers Insurance Update or Sell? That is the Question 11:30 a.m.

Presented by: Decorating Den Interiors Building with Structural Insulated Panels 12:00 p.m.

Presented by: Eco-Panels of TN Kid Proof, Pet Proof, Water Proof Flooring 12:30 p.m.

Presented by: Floor Max Direct Construction Industry Workforce Development 1:00 p.m.

Presented by: Go Build TN Architectural Ceramic 1:30 p.m.

Presented by: Amypotter.com Foundation Repair, Waterproofing, and Concrete Leveling 2:00 p.m.

Presented by: United Structural Systems

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2020 Home Show Exhibitor Layout FAIRGROUNDS NASHVILLE Find all the 2020 HBAMT Home Show exhibitors listed below to locate their booth number & location on the Fairgrounds Nashville layout shown at the right!

EXHIBITOR BOOTH(S) 360 Inventory Solutions 1124 360 Painting 403 A Comfort Place 413 ADS Security 911 AFS 901-1000 American Home Design 617 American Sleep Therapy 519, 618 AmyPotter.com 208 Aqua Pure Solutions 710 Bath Fitter 811, 910 Battle of the Build 525, 523, 624, 622 Beauti-Vents 403 Brick Doctor 218 Cabinet Makeovers 723, 822, 823 Centurion Stone & Exteriors 613 Clinard Home Improvement 307, 106 Creative Concrete Solutions 109 Cutco Cutlery 216 Decorating Den Interiors 1019 Don Kennedy Roofing 601, 605, 700, 704 Durante Home Exteriors 501-509, 600-608 Eco Panels of TN 807, 906 Edward Jones Investment 802 Fancy Vents 217 Farmers Insurance - Koch Group 1122 Floor Max Direct 817, 819 Frontier Basement Systems 419, 518 Go Build Tennessee, Inc 522 Go Freedom 806 Granite Transformations 607, 706 Guardian Garage Floors 917, 1016 HelloFresh 907 Homecraft Gutter Protection 412 Install America 711, 810 JTC Services, Inc. 1118 Kitchen Craft 417, 516 La Vie Marketing 713, 812 LeafFilter North of Tennessee, Inc. 1010 Leafguard of Nashville 303 12 The NAIL

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M & E Sales 1116 Metro Water Services 1017 Midtown Improvements, Inc 923, 1022 Monster Tree Service 611 Mr. Enclosure 1013, 1112 Mr. Roof 212 MTSU 524 Nashville House & Home & Garden 301 Magazine Nashville Pond 402 Patio Enclosures 512 Piedmont Natural Gas 411, 510 Pinnacle Home Improvements 502 Power Home Remodeling 717, 816 Prestige Products Direct 707 Prolift Garage Doors 919, 1018 Real Wood Floors 401, 500 Renewal by Anderson 511,610 Scentsy- Pages Scent , Inc. 400

Seal Smart LLC 1009 Second to None Beauty 1023, 1025 Shadeworks 319, 418 ShelfGenie 517, 616 Soft Tub 903, 1002 Southern Outdoor Living 323, 325, 422, 424 Stephen Davis Home Designs 407, 506 Superior Sleep 801,803/900,902 Tennessee Box Beams 1006 Tennessee Valley Authority: 316

eScare Program TFS - The Foundation Specialists 716 Tip Top Home Solutions 1108 Total Home Solutions/ 317, 416

Music City Lighting U.S. Bank Home Mortgage 701, 800 United Structural Systems, LLC 712 Window & Door Concepts 211, 213/310, 312 Wyndham Destinations 311, 313 February, 2020

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Be sure to check out the projects constructed by our participating 2020 Battle of the Build schools!

Students from these local high schools took part in this educational competition to build the most impressive and well-designed structure. Find them on the event layout, booths 523, 525, 622, and 624, and make sure to visit their exhibits during your visit to the show!

CREEK WOOD HIGH SCHOOL

Sponsored by: Building Solutions by Spann and D & S Homebuilders, LLC

LEBANON HIGH SCHOOL AGM Sponsored by: D.R. Horton

LEBANON HIGH SCHOOL Construction Trades

Sponsored by: Landmark Homes of Tennessee and Fakes & Hooker Lumber

SPRING HILL HIGH SCHOOL Sponsored by: Regent Homes

D & S HOMEBUILDERS

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Millennials will dominate 2020 mortgage market

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arkets in the South and West will experience the highest housing activity in 2020, as more millennials move out of big cities in search of more affordable markets, according to experts who shared some of the latest industry trends during last week’s International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas.

“Millennials will dominate housing in 2020 and account for 50% of mortgage originations,” said George Ratiu, a senior economist at realtor.com. He added that they will be leaving expensive metros for more affordable markets.

“Millennials will be moving to mid-sized cities like Boise, Idaho; Tucson; Chattanooga, Tennessee; and Columbia, South Carolina.

These cities offer good weather, suburban downtowns and lifestyle amenities.”

Looking at this key demographic more closely, Ratiu said: 1-in-4 millennials have been looking for a home for more than a year. l 16% are searching for homes in urban areas. l 34% are looking for homes in the suburbs. l 45% are seeking homes in small towns

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Summing up his findings, Ratiu said that in 2020: l Millennials will demand an affordable product. l Mortgage rates will remain attractive. l Lesser markets will shine. l Baby boomers are not moving.

Ali Wolf, director of economic research for Meyers Research based in Costa Mesa, California, also noted that boomers are staying put.

“Boomers [say] they are not selling because ‘we don’t need to.’ Only 17% of boomers are dissatisfied with their current home,” said Wolf.

Other factors that are keeping boomers at home are that 23% have no retirement savings and 30% of those in the 62-66 age range have postponed retirement.

As for millennials, they are also facing affordability and supply constraints. “Affordability is the biggest obstacle to buying a home,” said Wolf. “Only 5% of millennials want to rent. They are the largest buyer demographic but faced with a supply shortage.”

Looking at public and private builders,

Carl Reichardt, managing director at BTIG headquartered in San Francisco, said that 8-out-10 private builders expect sales will rise in 2020.

“Labor and land costs are their biggest worry,” he said. “Builders still appear cautious on pricing. Very few are raising prices aggressively.”

Meanwhile, Reichardt said that public builders account for 36% of all new homes in the U.S. market. (NAHB data show the top 20 builders accounted for 29% of all single-family starts in 2018.) Among the top 50 markets in the country, Reichardt said a public builder is No. 1 in terms of volume in 36 of these markets.

Reichardt said that public builders are not looking to get into all markets but instead are focusing on local market share in the metros they are currently engaged in.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, who moderated the session, said that while the industry continues to face significant labor issues on the supply side, 2020 might be the year that labor shortages stop getting worse.

For more on the economic impacts of housing, visit nahb.org.

SPIKE REPORT Davis Lamb 210 Jackson Downey 182 Tim Ferguson 177 Jim McLean 164

Fourteen SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of November 30, 2019.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 775 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 567 John Whitaker 563 Trey Lewis 468 James Carbine 399 Jennifer Earnest 371 David Crane 326 Jimmy Franks 300 Kevin Hale 300 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 219

Life Spikes Harry Johnson 146 Tonya Esquibel 145 Steve Cates 142 Randall Smith 142 C.W. Bartlett 138 Kevin Woodward 137 Sam Carbine 136 Helmet Mundt 127 David Hughes 125 Jordan Clark 122 B.J. Hanson 121 Steve Hewlett 119 Carmen Ryan 119 John Zelenak 116 Dave McGowan 108 Edsel Charles 107 Justin Hicks 107 Michael Dillon 106 Wiggs Thompson 104 Duane Vanhook 101 Nick Wisniewski 95 Joe Morgan 91 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Christina Cunningham 84 Keith Porterfield 77 Erin Richardson 77 Steve Shalibo 75

Beth Sturm 74 Lori Fisk-Conners 70 Jeff Slusher 70 Sam Henley 68 Ron Schroeder 66 Jody Derrick 65 Eugene James 63 Don Bruce 62 Marty Maitland 60 Brandon Rickman 60 John Broderick 55 Andrew Neuman 54 Derenda Sircy 52 John Ganschow 49 Rick Olszewski 47 Phillip Smith 46 Ashley Crews 45 Ricky Scott 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Christina James 38 Frank Jones 36 Frank Tyree 31 Don Mahone 30 Spikes Joe Dalton 23 Jeffrey Caruth 19 Ryan Meade 17 Perry Pratt 18 Nicole Bird 15 Tammy Chambers 12 Eric DeBerry 12 Rob Pease 12

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FEBRUARY CALENDAR Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

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2020 HOME SHOW Fairgrounds Nashville

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Sales & Marketing Council meeting

Wilson County Chapter meeting

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Metro/Nashville Chapter meeting

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CHAPTERS & COUNCILS CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson.

Next meeting: Tuesday, February 18.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTER Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, February 27 Topic: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261 ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER

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Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - John Nehrenz The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Nick Wisniewski The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Wednesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Lebanon Wilson County Chamber of Commerce in Lebanon.

Next meeting: Wednesday, February 12, 11:30 a.m.

Topic: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: to be announced. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Christina James.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, February 6, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: “New RealTracs Features and Updates.”

SMC members free thanks to Mortgage Mike; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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