The Nail, August 2019

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Secure your place in the 2019 Parade Plan Book and reach your future customers for years to come!

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NAIL The official magazine of Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee President Justin Hicks Vice President David Hughes Secretary/Treasurer Steve Shalibo Executive Vice President John Sheley Editor and Designer Jim Argo Staff Connie Nicley Hannah Garrard

At the 2019 Parade, each attendee will be handed a magazine as they walk through the front gate the Parade Plan Book!

The Plan Book is a tremen­dous opportunity to put your message into the hands of prequalified customers who refer to the book for months, even years after the Parade is over!

Find more details and your registration form on page 15 of this issue of The Nail. www.theparadeofhomes.org 4 The NAIL

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THE NAIL is published monthly by the Home Builders Association of Middle Tennessee, a non-profit trade association dedicated to promoting the American dream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomes manuscripts and photos related to the Middle Tennessee housing industry for publication. Editor reserves the right to edit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Boulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.

Phone: (615) 377-1055.

FEATURES 9 Mortgage rates continue to decline

Freddie Mac data shows that mortgage rates continue to decline.

11 What drives baby boomer home buyers to buy?

Today’s baby boomers are looking for different community amenities following retirement. Check out what they’re looking for here.

12 HBAMT’s 2019 Golf Event set for August 15th

The HBAMT’s big summer event is this month! Sign up now for the James Hardie Golf Tournament this August at the Legends Golf Club.

15 James Hardie Parade of Homes at The Grove

Advertise in

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The popular annual event returns in October for a two-week, three weekend run at The Grove. Sign up now to participate as an advertiser or exhibitor during the Parade.

DEPARTMENTS

NAIL

6 News & Information

Visit http://www.hbamt.org/nail.html and click The NAIL Advertising Rates (pdf) to download rates and registration form

18 August Calendar

Email jargo@hbamt.org for more details

17 SPIKE Club Report

18 Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER: Baby boomers are attracted to different community amenities than past retirees.

See story on page eleven.

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news&info

New home sales increase 7 percent in June

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ales of newly built, single-family homes increased 7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 646,000 units in June from a downwardly revised reading in May, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. On a yearto-date basis, new home sales for 2019 are 2.2 percent higher than the same period in 2018.

“Though there is a clear demand for new homes, builders continue to wrestle with affordability headwinds, including shortages of buildable lots and skilled labor, that are constraining sales,” said Greg Ugalde, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder and developer from Torrington, Conn.

There is a clear demand for new homes, however, builders continue to wrestle with affordability headwinds.

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“The June figures are in line with our forecast predicting a modest 3.5 percent growth in new home sales for 2019, due largely to affordability concerns,” said Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, AVP for Forecasting and Analysis at NAHB. A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed.

In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the June reading of 646,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

The inventory of new homes for sale was 338,000 in June, representing a 6.3 months’ supply. The median sales price was $310,400, nearly identical to the $310,500 median price from a year earlier.

Regionally, and on a year-over-year basis, new home sales are 19.4 percent higher in the West and 9.5 higher in the South. Sales are down 50 percent in the Northeast and 17.6 percent in the Midwest. n

Remodelers confidence holds steady in second quarter

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he NAHB Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 55 in the second quarter of 2019, rising one point from the previous quarter. The RMI has been consistently above 50—indicating that more remodelers report market activity is higher compared to the prior quarter than report it is lower—since the second quarter of 2013. The overall RMI averages current remodeling activity and future indicators.

“The demand for remodeling continues to hold strong throughout the country,” said NAHB Remodelers Chair Tim Ellis, CAPS, CGP, CGR, GMR, Master CGP, a remodel-

er from Bel Air, Md. “However, the lack of skilled labor continues to be one of the largest roadblocks in the industry.”

Current market conditions rose two points from the previous quarter to 55. Among its three major components, major additions and alterations increased four points to 53, minor additions and alterations and the home maintenance and repair component both held steady at 55 and 56, respectively.

The future market indicators gained one point from the previous quarter to 55. Calls for bids stayed at 54, amount of work committed for

Single-family starts up in June, builder confidence holds firm

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ingle-family gains helped offset a drop in multifamily production as total housing starts edged 0.9 percent lower in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.25 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Housing and Urban Development and Commerce Department.

The June reading of 1.25 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if they kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 3.5 percent to 847,000 units. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, fell 9.2 percent to a 406,000 pace.

“The monthly pick up from May to June in single-family starts is in line with the slight rise in our latest builder confidence survey, as demand remains solid due to a healthy job market,” said Greg Ugalde, chairman of the NAHB and a home builder and developer from Torrington, Conn.

“The relatively flat housing starts data in June is due to a decline in multifamily production, which still remains somewhat elevated due to affordability concerns in the for-sale market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The Census data show that the only region showing single-family construction gains for the first half of 2019 is the South, where housing is generally more affordable relative to incomes.”

Regionally, combined single-family and multifamily starts in June rose 31.3 percent in the Northeast, and 27.1 percent in the Midwest.

Starts declined 9.2 percent in the South and 4.9

percent in the West.

Overall permits, which are a harbinger of future housing production, fell 6.1 percent to a 1.22 million unit annualized rate in June. Single-family permits edged 0.4 percent higher to 813,000 while multifamily permits fell 16.8 percent to 407,000.

Looking at regional permit data, permits rose 21.9 percent in the Northeast. Permits fell 10.4 percent in the South, 7.9 percent in the West and 0.6 percent in the Midwest.

Builder confidence edges down in June Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 65 in July, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This marks the sixth consecutive month that sentiment levels have held at a steady range in the low- to mid-60s.

“Builders report solid demand for single-family homes. However, they continue to

the next three months fell two points to 52, the backlog of remodeling jobs increased four points to 58 and appointments for proposals remained steady at 55 for the third quarter in a row.

“The remodeling market has decelerated somewhat due to ongoing supply-side challenges, as well as year-over-year declines in existing home sales,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, remodelers’ confidence continues to be positive. Market conditions would be better if not for labor shortages and rising construction costs making it difficult to complete some projects at prices home owners can afford.”

For the full RMI tables, please visit www. nahb.org/rmi. For more information about remodeling, visit www.nahb.org/remodel. n

grapple with labor shortages, a dearth of buildable lots and rising construction costs that are making it increasingly challenging to build homes at affordable price points relative to buyer incomes,” said Ugalde.

“Even as builders try to rein in costs, home prices continue to outpace incomes,” said Dietz. “The current low mortgage interest rate environment should be getting more buyers off the sidelines, but they remain hesitant due to affordability concerns. Still, attractive rates should help spur new home purchases in large metro suburban markets, where approximately one-third of new construction takes place.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/ Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All the HMI indices inched higher in July.

The index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 72, the component gauging expectations in the next six months moved a single point higher to 71 and the metric charting buyer traffic increased one point to 48.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South moved one point higher to 68 and the West was also up one point to 72. The Northeast remained unchanged at 60 while the Midwest fell a single point to fifty-six. n August, 2019

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Mortgage rates continue to decline Freddie Mac data shows that mortgage rates continued to decline for the seventh straight month.

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or the seventh straight month, information compiled by Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates continued to decline. As of July 2019, the 30-year FRM – Commitment rate, fell by four basis points to 3.77 percent from 3.80 percent in June. The cycle peak was 4.87 percent in November.

According to the June 2019 Federal Open Market Committee meeting statement, the Fed made no change to the interest rate, as expected.

It kept the target for the federal funds rate at its setting of 2.25-2.50 percent. Chairman Powell’s opening statement to the House Financial Services Committee in early July reflected his judgment that uncertainties

weighing on the outlook. Taking that into account, it is likely that the committee will lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 2.00-2.25 percent at the upcoming policy meeting on July 30-31.

At the end of July, the 10-year Treasury rate, is up slightly at 2.05 percent from end of June. The lower rate 10-year Treasury rate has contributed to low mortgage interest rates in the last few weeks.

The average 30-Year Fixed market rate, according to Freddie Mac, was at 3.75 percent at the end of July compared to 3.73 percent at the end of June. At the beginning of 2019, the average 30-Year Fixed market rate was 4.51 percent. n

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Top lifestyle drivers for baby boomers

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aby boomers say they will continue to work, retire later and want to stay in their homes. Enticing boomers who may be looking local for retirement to move from their existing home can be a hard sell. A community better suited to their ‘aspirational’ lifestyle, however, can be a compelling reason.

“Prospective buyers want a new community that supports or energizes their aspirations,” said Deborah Blake, principal at The Ipsum Group. Homes, amenities and a lifestyle that foster more time to do what they want, with low-maintenance homes, social connections and wellness activities that make them healthier and happier, highlight what their current home and neighborhood don’t provide.

Even if you may not build 55+ communities, it’s helpful to know what attracts buyers in this age demographic, as similar amenities within or around the local community may draw them to your projects.

Here are some of the top draws: Food. “Food is the new golf,” Blake stated. “Experiences around food are meaningful and memorable.” Communities are now including fully outfitted bars that residents can activate, for impromptu happy hours, wine tasting, or even guest chefs and cooking classes. Food related events are the catalyst for social connections and community building.

Wellness. Recent research indicates that active adults feel happier and younger living in 55+ active lifestyle communities, with walking being the chief activity of choice. (NAHB’s “What Home Buyers Really Want” report notes 67% of baby boomers

want walkable communities with walking or jogging trails.)

Subscription-based, on-demand, video fitness training is also on the rise, Blake observed, to give residents the flexibility both in type and intensity of workouts and group classes without the overhead expense of having a dedicated trainer on staff.

Flexible hours. Because more boomers are continuing to work past the age of 65, they are looking for activities in the evenings and weekends. On-demand options, such as the bar and fitness options noted above, help address the need for more activity around the clock. Allowing early morning and late evening key or proximity card access to the fitness amenities is mandatory in modern 55+ active lifestyle communities.

One longtime staple of active-adult communities, however, has been losing some steam: golf courses. According to Blake, less than 25% of residents are interested in this amenity. With the highest price sensitivity to home owners association (HOA) fees, 55+ buyers only want to pay for what they use, so flexible, multipurpose amenities are more appealing. And for those who want to golf, nearby public courses fit the bill and provide more variety of play.

“Maintenance [for gold courses] can cost around $1 million a year,” she noted. With an eye toward fixed monthly incomes in retirement, “it’s not something people want to pay for anymore.”

Learn more about what baby boomers want — and don’t want — from NAHB’s “What Home Buyers Really Want” report. n August, 2019

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Please return your completed registration form (provided below) to the HBAMT to enter.

ALL COMPANIES & SINGLE PLAYERS ENTERING MUST BE A MEMBER OF THE HBAMT.

CONTACT ________________________________ COMPANY _____________________________________ EMAIL ___________________________________ PHONE ________________________________________ Print names of players. Four (4) players per team ($220.00 per player). Players reserving for ONE only ($235.00) will be assigned a foursome.

1.) _________________________________________ 2.) _____________________________________________ 3.) _________________________________________ 4.) _____________________________________________ Check your preference (to accommodate all golfers we are hosting two rounds): r Morning Round | r Afternoon Round _______ No. of players x $220.00 or One (1) player for $235.00 | Make checks payable to HBAMT; call 377-1055 to pay by cc Return: HBAMT - 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027 | Fax: 615-377-1077 | Email: cnicley@hbamt.net

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2019 Golf Tournament Sponsorships!

The 8th Annual HBAMT Golf Tournament returns Thursday, August 15 to The Legends Club in Franklin. Sign up now to sponsor at one of the following levels! selection

sponsorship level

price/# available benefits

TITLE SPONSOR

$10,000 1 available

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Company name featured as headliner on all materials Booth at registration, awards wrap-up & course hole Opportunity to hand out promotional materials Signage provided

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Lunch Sponsor

$5,000 1 available

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Company name featured as Lunch Sponsor on all material Booth at check-in and Golf Tournament course hole Opportunity to hand out promotional materials Four (4) tickets to Wrap-up and Kick-off Party

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Breakfast Sponsor

$2,500 1 available

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Company name featured as Breakfast Sponsor on all material Booth at check-in and Golf Tournament course hole Your booth will be breakfast ticket pick up point for all golfers Opportunity to hand out promotional materials Two (2) tickets to Wrap-up and Kick-off Party

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KICK-OFF EVENT

$5,000 1 available

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Company name featured on all Kick-off event materials Booth at Kick-off event & on Golf Tournament course hole Hand out promo materials at Kick-off event & course hole Signage at Kick-off event and Golf Tournament provided Four (4) tickets to Kick-off Event

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$1,200 5 available

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Company name featured as headliner on all materials Booth at wrap-up & course hole Opportunity to hand out promotional materials at hole Signage at tournament provided Two (2) tickets to wrap-up and Kick-off event

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Single hole sponsor for both morning & afternoon rounds Opportunity to hand out promotional materials at hole Signage at tournament provided Opportunity to hand out information & goodies Two (2) tickets to wrap-up and Kick-off event

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Silver Sponsor

$600

l Hole sponsor for both morning & afternoon rounds l Opportunity to hand out promotional materials at hole l Two (2) tickets to wrap-up and Kick-off event

Hospitality Cart

$1,500 2 available

l Hospitality cart with your name on it l Opportunity to ride cart in morning & afternoon rounds moving freely within the course handing out beverages & goodies

Wrap-up Party Sponsor

$2,500 1 available

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(pre tournament party)

Title Sponsor

Platinum

Gold Sponsor

SOLD SOLD

Company name featured as Wrap-up Sponsor on all material Booth at check-in and Golf Tournament course hole Opportunity to hand out promotional materials Two (2) tickets to Breakfast and Kick-off Party

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Indicate which of the seven (7) sponsorship levels shown above you selected and return the completed form below to the HBAMT to sign up today! (List company EXACTLY as you want it to appear on signage.)

CONTACT _________________________________ COMPANY ___________________________________ EMAIL ____________________________________ PHONE ______________________________________ Your Name (print) ____________________________ Signature ____________________________________ Return to: HBAMT - 9007 Overlook Blvd, Brentwood, TN 37027 l Fax: (615) 377-1077 l Email: cnicley@hbamt.net

HBAMT does not allow subletting of any of services, products, promotional opportunities or memberships. **A 3% convenience fee is applied to all credit card transactions.** August, 2019 l The NAIL 13

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James Hardie Parade of Homes The 2019 Parade of Homes at The Grove

ADVERTISE & EXHIBIT

If your company depends on new homes or related products, furnishings or services, here’s one opportunity you can’t pass up -- the 2019 James Hardie Parade of Homes at The Grove!

Secure your space in the Plan Book or reserve an Exhibit Booth today.

THE PARADE PLAN BOOK

THE PARADE EXHIBIT BOOTH

At every Parade event each attendee is handed a magazine as they walk through the front gate - the Parade Plan Book.

Here’s your chance to demonstrate your product or service to the thousands of qualified prospects who pass through the Parade of Homes exhibit center when they enter and leave the show. As with Plan Book advertising, the exhib­it center produces virtually all pre-qualified customers!

The Plan Book is a tremen­dous opportunity to put your message into the hands of pre-qualified customers who refer to the book several months after the Parade of Homes is over!

Plan Book Advertising Rates Half Page 7.5” x4.75” (Horizontal) Full Page 7.5”x10” 8.75”x 11.25” (B1eed) *Page One 7.5”x10” 8.75”x11.25” (Bleed) *Inside Front Cover Inside Back Cover Double Truck Back Cover

$800 $1,200 $1,600 $2,100 $2,300 $2,840 $3,250

*specialty locations sold.

Email jargo@hbamt.net for ad specs and availability.

It’s like opening up shop and having thousands of prospects visit your show­room the first two weeks you’re in business. What other medium could come close to producing those kinds of results? The Parade ranks first of all home shows in the nation and you can take advantage of the prestige this show enjoys.

Exhibit Booth Price? $750 Each booth in the Parade of Homes exhibit center measures 10’ x 6’ at the front entrance where patrons must enter and exit -- perfect for eye-pop­ping kiosks and marketing publications!

2019 PARADE OF HOMES - PROMOTIONAL OPPORTUNITIES COMMITMENT FORM

Return completed form to: HBAMT, 9007 Overlook Blvd., Brentwood, TN 37027 | Fax: 615/377-1077 | Email: jargo@hbamt.org

PLAN BOOK AD - please check the size of ad you would like to secure in the 2019 Plan Book:

r Half Page

r Full Page

r Page One

r Inside Front

r Inside Back

r Back Cover

r 2-Page Spread

EXHIBIT BOOTH SPACE - please check here to secure your 2019 Exhibit Booth Space: r Your name: ____________________________________ Company: _____________________________________ Cell: _________________________________________ Email: _________________________________________ Total amount being paid: $___________ Credit Card _______________________ Credit Card # _______________________________ Exp. ____________ Credit Card V-Code _______________

The “v-code” is found on the back of the card, usually printed or embossed atop or near the signature strip.

It is comprised of three digits found to the right of a longer number.

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SPIKE REPORT Davis Lamb 207 Jackson Downey 182 Tim Ferguson 177 Jim McLean 164

Twenty-four SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitment numbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of May 31, 2019.

Top 20 Big Spikes Jim Ford 912 Virgil Ray 821 Bill King 776 Mitzi Spann 770 Terry Cobb 570 Jim Fischer 566 John Whitaker 562 Trey Lewis 456 James Carbine 395 Jennifer Earnest 368 David Crane 325 Kevin Hale 300 Jimmy Franks 291 Reese Smith III 261 Steve Moody 219 Sonny Shackelford 219

Life Spikes Harry Johnson 146 Steve Cates 142 Tonya Esquibel 142 C.W. Bartlett 138 Sam Carbine 136 Randall Smith 134 Kevin Woodward 130 Jordan Clark 120 B.J. Hanson 120 Steve Hewlett 119 Carmen Ryan 117 Helmet Mundt 116 David Hughes 115 John Zelenak 114 Dave McGowan 108 Edsel Charles 107 Wiggs Thompson 104 Justin Hicks 103 Michael Dillon 102 Duane Vanhook 100 Joe Morgan 89 Jeff Zeitlin 87 Christina Cunningham 84 Nick Wisniewski 82 Erin Richardson 77 Beth Sturm 73 Keith Porterfield 72

Jeff Slusher 70 Lori Fisk-Conners 69 Sam Henley 66 Jody Derrick 63 Don Bruce 62 Eugene James 61 Ron Schroeder 61 Marty Maitland 60 Steve Shalibo 59 John Broderick 55 Brandon Rickman 52 Derenda Sircy 52 Andrew Neuman 50 John Ganschow 49 Ashley Crews 45 Ricky Scott 45 Phillip Smith 45 Bryan Edwards 44 Rick Olszewski 44 Christina James 33 Frank Tyree 31 Don Mahone 30 Frank Jones 28 Spikes Joe Dalton 20 Jeffrey Caruth 16 Perry Pratt 16 Nicole Bird 15 Eric DeBerry 12 Ryan Meade 12 Rob Pease 11 Tammy Chambers 10

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AUGUST Calendar Sunday

Monday

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James Hardie Golf Tournament

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Dickson County Chapter meeting

General Membership meeting

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Sales & Marketing Council meeting

Chapters & Councils CHAPTERS CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303 Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310 DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.

The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at Colton’s Steakhouse in Dickson.

Next meeting: Tuesday, August 20.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: Meeting FREE, lunch dutch treat.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 264 MAURY COUNTY CHAPTER Maury County Chapter details are currently being planned.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312 GENERAL MEMBERSHIP MEETING Chapter President - Tonya Esquibel The General Membership meeting is held on the fourth Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, August 22.

Topic: “Nail Down More Business with Builders,” with a legendary panel of Tennessee’s finest builders (see page 10).

Builders Free thanks to Guardian Protection and Rural 1st.

Price: $10 per person w/RSVP; $15 w/o.

FIRST 50 TO RSVP FREE! Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 261

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ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTER Next meeting: to be announced.

Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - Joe Dalton: 615/972-7149 The Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 262 WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTER Chapter President - B.J. Hanson: 615/884-4935.

The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Builders Free pending sponsorship.

Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305 WILSON COUNTY CHAPTER The Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309 COUNCILS GREEN BUILDING COUNCIL Council President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.

The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).

Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308 HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCIL Council President - David Crane.

The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month at varying locations.

Next meeting: to be announced. 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. at a location to be determined.

Topic: to be announced.

Price: free with RSVP. Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 263 INFILL BUILDERS COUNCIL The Infill Builders Council typically meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices Next meeting: to be announced.

Price: to be announced.

RSVP to: 615/377-9651, ext. 265.

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCIL Council President - Jeffrey Caruth.

The SMC typically meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.

Next meeting: Thursday, September 5, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT. Topic: to be announced.

SMC members free pending sponsorship; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVP Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 260.

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