Housing Market Report by HarrisonburgHousingToday.com

SEPTEMBER 2012 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through August 31, 2012 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

The recently constructed Rockingham Memorial Hospital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RMHOnline.com

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September 9, 2012

Executive Summary The summary below is based on residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reflected in the HRAR MLS.

Pace of Home Sales: August

Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date

Buyer Activity

Home Values: August

Home Values: Year to Date

Single Family Home Sales

92 homes sold in August 2012, showing a 16% increase from August 2011 when 79 homes sold -- and a 48% increase from August 2010 when only 62 homes sold.

Median sales prices decreased 9.4% but average sales prices increased 1.7% when comparing August 2012 to August 2011.

571 homes sold in the first eight months of 2012. This is a 9.4% increase from 2011 when 522 homes had sold, and a 7.3% increase as compared to 2010 when 532 homes sold.

Median sales prices increased 0.9% but average sales prices decreased 1.5% when comparing 2012 YTD values to 2011 YTD.

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

100 buyers committed to buy in August 2012, compared to 86 in August 2011 (a 16% increase), and 60 in July 2010 (a 67% increase).

437 single family homes sold thus far in 2012, compared to a total of 622 in 2011. The median sales price has increased to $195,000.

Days on Market: August

Days on Market: Year to Date

Townhouse Sales

Foreclosures

Supply

Lot Sales

Inventory

Price Per Square Foot

Land Sales

Homes sold in an average of 229 days in August 2012, a 29% increase from 178 days in July August and a 11% increase from the 207 day average in August 2010.

169 trustee deeds have been recorded thus far in 2012 compared to 571 home sales reported through the HRAR MLS.

Inventory levels decreased during August 2012 to 706 residential properties currently for sale, down from 727 one month ago, and down from 877 one year ago.

The length of time on the market for homes selling in 2012 (222 days) increased 6% since 2011 when the average was 209 days on the market.

All price ranges still show an excess of housing supply, with 8 months under $200k, 10 months between $200k and $300k, 13 months between 300k and $400k, and 41 months above $400k.

Median price per square foot of single family homes has decreased to $101/sf in the 3rd quarter of 2012, as compared to $106/sf in the 2nd quarter of 2012.

134 townhouses sold thus far in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 169 townhomes. The median townhome sales price has declined to $138,800 in 2012 from $144,000 in 2011.

33 lots of less than an acre sold thus far in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 60 lots. Median lot sales prices have risen to $54,900 from $54,500 during 2011.

30 parcels of land greater than an acre sold thus far in 2012 compared to 49 land sales during all of 2011. The median price per acre has decreased to $13,934 in 2012.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 08/31/2012.

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September 9, 2012

HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

# Home Sales

September 9, 2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

% Change ('11 - '12)

August

16.46%

Year-To-Date

531

532

522

571

9.39%

2009

2010

2011

2012

% Change ('11 - '12)

August

$190,000

$174,450

$200,000

$181,250

-9.38%

Year-To-Date

$189,000

$181,750

$173,500

$175,000

0.86%

2009

2010

2011

2012

% Change ('11 - '12)

August

$210,042

$217,941

$201,725

$205,102

1.67%

Year-To-Date

$219,333

$212,279

$200,586

$197,637

-1.47%

Average Days on Market

2009

2010

2011

2012

% Change ('11 - '12)

August

158

207

178

229

28.65%

Year-To-Date

187

193

209

222

6.22%

Median Sales Price

Average Sales Price

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

YTD: sales pace increases; median price remain steady. Home sales soared in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during August 2012 --- showing a total of 92 home sales -- the best August seen since at least 2009. This strong month of sales also contributed to further strength in year-to-date sales figures, which are now

showing a 9.4% improvement over 2011 year-to-date home sales. Despite a 9% decline in median sales price based on August sales data, the year-to-date median sales price increased 0.9% to $175,000. The length of time it takes to market and sell a home (average = 222 days) continues to rise.

September 9, 2012

HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

# Home Sales

2011

2012

% Change

2011

2012

% Change

August

33.33%

10.34%

Year-To-Date

181

203

12.15%

341

368

7.92%

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

Median Sales Price

2011

2012

% Change

2011

2012

% Change

August

$189,000

$155,700

-17.62%

$207,500

$202,375

-2.47%

Year-To-Date

$166,000

$159,900

-3.67%

$179,800

$190,000

5.67%

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

Average Days on Market

2011

2012

% Change

2011

2012

% Change

August

197

201

2.03%

172

242

40.70%

Year-To-Date

220

231

5.00%

203

217

6.90%

Prices recovering more quickly in the County. This relatively new data table breaks out overall sales trends between properties in the City of Harrisonburg as compared to Rockingham County. Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t mind the drastic swings when only comparing one month of data, as the sample size is quite small -- pay more attention to the YTD

changes in the metrics noted above. For example, the County has seen an increase (+5.67%) in year-to-date median sales price over the past year, while the City has seen a decline (-3.67%) in the same metric. The pace of sales, however, is up in both localities (+12% in the City, +8% in the County).

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Month-By-Month Home Sales History 125

2009 117

2010

August 2012 92 Home Sales

2011 2012

100 95

Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales

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September 9, 2012

94 86

83 78

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

92 84

77 75

79 77

45 40 39 37

JAN

FEB

53 53

MAR

APR

0 MAY

JUN

August shows remarkably strong sales performance. Based on August sales data from the past several years, it would have seemed asburd to predict 90+ home sales during August 2012 --- but that is exactly what we what happened in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This strong month of sales sets us up to see a sizable

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

gain in the overall pace of sales for the year, especially if buyer activity continues to remain stronng during the final four months of the year. We are likely to see another decline in sales during September, but perhaps it will not be too significant based on last yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s August-September trendline.

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 140

121 120 104 100

104

102 96

84 78

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

67 56

100

75 69

825 contracts

897 contracts

990 contracts

Strong contract figures continue in August. Contract figures have steadily increased over the past several years for August --- from 60 to 86 to 100 last month. This has added to the already strong pace of contracts in 2012 to mark a 10% increase in the

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Sep-11

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Feb-11

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Dec-10

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0 Aug-09

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September 9, 2012

annualized pace of contracts. As I have noted before, all of these contracts do not result in closings --- but the strong increase in contracts has certainly been a central contributor to the overall increase in sales pace seen thus far in 2012.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 900

DEC

800

700

794

758

715

694 600

500

636 532 470

400

418 300

200

100

OCT

657 601

587

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NOV

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

SEP 571

AUG

479

JUL

522 443 366

385

301

285

301

230

217

224

147

139

151

78 40

85 39

2010

2011

2012

August helps 2012 surge even further ahead. This graph shows the month by month cumulative count of residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Last yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s home sales (794) exceeded 2010 home sales (758), and this year is off to a good start with stronger year-to-date sales (571) as compared to

JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN

2011 (522) during the same time period. Looking at 2011 and 2012 side by side you will note that March, May, July and Augusthave shown the biggest gains this yer as compared to last year.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Inventory Levels

1200

1000

997

-19%

981 927 846

800

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787

778

807

832

865

870

872

882

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

877

846

810 748 672

671

708

733

751

721

727

706

665

600

400

200

Inventory levels keep on dropping. The declines in median sales price seen over the past several years are partly due to the imbalance in the market between the number of sellers (too many) and the number of buyers (too few). With contracts on the rise (see page 6) and inventory declining (see above) we are slowly moving

towards a more balanced market. It has actually been quite a rapid improvement over the past two years --- with a 19% decline in inventory over the past 12 months, and an overall 29% decline over the past 24 months. We are likely to see inventory levels continue to taper off through the Fall months.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes

$250,000

1,800

1,000

+14%

-0.3%

+4%

$127,700

+6%

$122,588

+17%

$122,900

$116,000

600

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

+29%

829 800

1,153

$169,900

1,071

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+8%

$149,000

1,200

+14%

-3%

1,248

$175,000

-5%

-13%

$192,983

+15%

+0.2%

$174,900

1,324

+1%

$180,000

1,438

+14%

$186,000

-14%

1,507

1,400

$195,100

+11%

1,600

$195,500

1,669

-25%

$200,000

$150,000 936 -13%

816

-7% 758 +4% 791

$100,000 571

400

$50,000

200

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Home prices steadying. This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). After five years of declines in home sales (2005-2010) the

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

pace finally picked up in 2011 with a 4% year-over-year increase. With stronger YTD sales in 2012 (+9.4%) we will likely see further improvement in the pace of home sales this year, and it seems quite possible that home values (as measured by median price) will level off this year, as they have increased slightly so far this year.

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period

$175,000

$190,000 $175,000

$175,950

$175,000

$173,000

$174,900

$175,800

$175,000

$176,650

$175,650

$175,000

$174,250

$175,825

$179,800

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$175,575

$180,000

$179,900

$178,750

Annualized Median Sales Prices

1,500

$178,500

$181,700

$183,950

$184,000

$183,000

$185,000

$186,000

$187,225

$189,250

$189,950

2,000

$189,000

$210,000

$170,000

Annualized Home Sales

843

830

813

810

801

806

801

793

794

779

$150,000

Growth!

500

0 Sep-09

779

772

748

731

706

742

750

745

753

738

758

763

802

789

818

833

876

845

849

825

817

825

817

775

784

1,000

817

Stability!

775

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September 9, 2012

$130,000

Sep-10

Increasing sales pace; stable sales prices. This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point is showing one yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility

Sep-11

$110,000 Sep-12

of evaluating sales figures on a month-by-month basis. After steady increases in the annualized pace of home sales over the past 13 months, we are now nearing the highest annual rate of sales that we have seen anytime in the past three years. Median sales prices have also been quite stable for the past nine months.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes

1,200

800

+24% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

674 +8%

$147,000

+2%

$136,000

$122,850

+9%

$133,239

600

+16%

$195,000

-7%

-12%

$185,500

-2%

$199,600

-5%

798

$225,000

$175,000 -18%

$170,000

+29%

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-4%

+8% 909

880 +3%

$210,000

868 -2% 851

-1%

$204,500

+16%

-11%

$215,000

1,000

$223,575

1,024 n/a 1,025

$226,800

$275,000

654 -14%

563 -1% 555

+12%

622 $125,000

437

400

$75,000

200

$25,000

-$25,000 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Prices of single family homes increase. The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County seems to be recovering quite nicely compared to the overall market. Last year, the pace of home sales in the single family home

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

market increased by 12% -- nearing 2008 sales levels with 622 sales. Single family homes are performing well again in 2012, and median prices are currently showing an increase from $185,500 (last year) to $195,500 for the first eight months of 2012.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos

+9%

+10%

+5% +47%

+6%

302

300

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$118,500

$94,600

400

$89,000

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483

444

$108,200

$103,100

+9%

-7%

450 $120,000 -37%

$100,000 282

-11%

$80,000

253 -20%

203 155

$160,000

$140,000

-15%

+14%

+49%

200

-5%

$138,800

$167,250

-3%

529

$134,950

500

+19%

+2%

$144,000

+33%

+2%

$180,000

$154,500

-18%

$161,875

600

$163,800

644

$160,850

700

203 -17%

+31%

$60,000 169 134

$40,000

100 $20,000

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Townhouse sales comparatively sluggish. If the single family home market is stabilizing, it is at least partially at the expense of the townhouse market. The final count of 169 townhouse sales in 2011 marked a 17% year-over-year decline in townhouse sales --- from an extraordinary peak of 644 sales in 2005. Townhome

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

sales thus far in 2012 have started to pick up pace in the past few months, with 134 year-to-date closings. Median sales prices, however, are continuing to decline this year -- though at a slower pace of decline. After a 7% decline in price from 2010 to 2011, the price decline between last year and this year has only been 4%.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS

Recorded Trustee Deeds

1,800 1,669 1,600

1,507 1,438

1,400

1,324 1,248

1,200

1,153

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,071 1,000

936 829

816

800

758

3.5X

791

3.4X 571

600

400 270 200 56

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

118

177

223

169

0 2000

2001

Foreclosures up slightly from last year. The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up in blue when they are listed as REO properties. The foreclosure rate has increased somewhat in 2012, as there were 3.5 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2011 and only 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures thus far in 2012.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)

$0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

50 45 41

Post-Tax -C

y? Recover

redit De c

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line

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

30 25 20

Recovery?

10 6

5 0

Recovery more evident in lower price ranges. The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two

years. Youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll note that the sale of homes under $200,000 has increased for the past year, as has the pace of sales between $200,000 and $300,000. The pace of home sales between $300,000 and $400,000 has been relatively steady, and the highest price range ($400,000 and up) has seen slower sales over the past two years.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

550 500

463

478 448

450

426

443 414

447

457

452

451

454

451

444

416

399

400 350

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-18%

433

339 317

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

296

300

343

350

353

360

353

370

357

328

283 259

250

218

208

216

230

232

236

229

221

203

200 150

117

111

105

100 100 50

88 81

97 81

105

103 86

106

112

101

189

194

180

185

206

77 75

214

222

209

201

199

Big drop in inventory in lowest price segment. Inventory levels have declined across the board over the past two years, but the changes have been quite different based on list prices. The most significant change has been in homes under $200,000 -- just 10 months ago there were 433 such properties for sale, and today there are

only 357 for sale -- this marks an 18% decline in inventory. While we should expect that inventory levels will increase through the summer market, the overall declines in inventory over the past two years are definitely making a difference in helping to return us to greater balance in the local housing market.

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September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

50 45 45 41 40

30 25 20 15 10

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

27 20

21 19 17

20 15

19 16

16 13

18 16

13 11

13 12

14 12

28 26

14 12

13 12

26 23

12 11

11 10

10 8

10 9

11 9

10 9

10 8

Housing supply spikes in high price ranges. With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 41 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the

same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six months supply of housing to be a balance between buyers and sellers in the market, and it is remarkable to note that we are finally starting to approach that balance in the under $200K market.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace

102.0%

2,250

2,000

1,750

99.1% 97.4%

97.7%

97.8%

99.1%

100.0%

98.9%

98.1%

98.0% 1,669

96.2%

1,507

1,500

98.0%

96.9% 1,438

95.7% 94.7%

1,324

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

95.2%

1,248

1,250

96.0%

94.0%

1,153 1,071

1,000

92.0%

936 829

816

750

758

791 90.0% 571

500

88.0%

250

86.0%

84.0%

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Buyers experiencing slightly less flexibility on pricing. This new graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating. Last year may have offered the most flexibility for buyers --- with homes selling at an average of 94.7% of their asing prices --- this metric now shows an improvement to 95.2% of the asking price for home sales during the first seven months of 2012.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Median Price Per Square Foot Trends Single Family Homes

$100.00

d 1

$76 $73 $73 $73 $76 $77 $74 $78 $79 $80 $82 $84 $83 $86 $87 $92 $90 $96 $99

$105 $105

$125.00

$113 $119 $123 $126 $130 $131 $125 $129 $128 $127 $126 $125 $126 $121 $115 $116 $120 $117 $116 $107 $120 $108 $115 $101 $103 $103 $102 $100 $106 $101

$150.00

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$75.00

$50.00

$25.00

$0.00 2000-Q1

2001-Q1

2002-Q1

2003-Q1

2004-Q1

2005-Q1

2006-Q1

Price per square foot showing possible signs of stability. In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over

2007-Q1

2008-Q1

2009-Q1

2010-Q1

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Of late, however, the price per square foot has shown signs of stabilization.

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September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes

0 - 1,499 SF

1,500 - 2,500 SF

2,500+ SF

150

140

$138

$140 $133

130

$126 $123

120

$122

$123

$123 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$116

$117

$119

$112

$115

110

$105

100

$107

$111

$113

$103 $103

$96

2011

2012

60 2006

2007

2008

Prices edge up under 1500 SF. Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of

2009

2010

larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($96/SF) than homes that offer less than 1500 SF ($113/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre

$120,000

450 $99,900

408 400

$100,000

$76,500

350 304 300

$32,208

$30,500

$26,000

165

$36,900

$54,900

$54,500

$59,900

$58,300

$55,000

201

200

150

247

$54,500

250

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$60,000

$42,000

261

d 1

$80,000

$40,000 111

100

Stability? 74 58

$20,000

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Lot sales (< 1 acre) stabilizing? While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized in 2011. In 2009, there were 58 lot sales of less than an acre, in

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2010 that increased to 63 sales, and 2011 finished out with 60 sales. The median sales price of these lots under one acre may also be stabilizing between $55,000 and $60,000.

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September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre

$100k + 18 listings 6%

$0 - $40k 24 listings 9%

$80k - $100k 37 listings 13%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$60k - $80k 78 listings 28%

$40k - $60k 120 listings 43%

277 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $59,900

Many (many) lots for sale. Despite the fact that only 60 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2011, there are a remarkable 277 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($59,900) is only slightly higher than the 2012 YTD median sales price of $54,900. Given last

yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 60 lot sales, if no other lots were listed for sale, it would take roughly 4.5 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, more than half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012) median sales prices.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more

$30,000

180

$24,184

168

$8,333

$8,245

$10,000

49 42

$8,234

$15,000

$9,535

$13,934

$12,003

100

$20,000

$16,355

107

$14,552

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$15,424

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$15,000

120

$17,713

140

$25,000 $21,250

160

$5,000

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Larger lot sales slow again (slightly) in 2012. Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2011 as compared to both 2009 and 2010. During all of 2010, only 27 such land sales were recorded in the HRAR MLS, but there were a total of 49 such sales during 2011. This increase in

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

the pace of sales is very likely causing the increase in median price per acre that was experienced between 2010 and 2011. This year, however we are seeing a slightly slower pace (30) of sales, and the median price per acre has fallen back down to $13,934.

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September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more

$100k + 28 listings 11%

$0 - $10k 47 listings 18%

$50k - $100k 31 listings 12% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$40k - $50k 18 listings 7% $10k - $20k 75 listings 28%

$30k - $40k 31 listings 12% $20k - $30k 35 listings 13%

265 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $22,756 / Acre

High (really high) levels of lot inventory. Despite the fact that only 49 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2011, there are a remarkable 265 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $15,000 per acre, the median list price of the 265 parcels

for sale is currently $22,756 per acre. Given last yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 49 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take over five years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot

200 186 200

180

$129

150

$133

109

$114

$105

$99

89 $94

100

$130

121

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

120

$146

139

$137

140

137

$150

138

140

$144

158

160

$87

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September 9, 2012

100

60 41

50 33

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

New home sales slow, but prices steady. New home builders finally saw an increase in the pace of new home sales during 2011 -- after a steady decline since 2005. This small increase (42 to 45), however, still leaves plenty of room for improvement -and thus far in 2012, it is unclear whether we will see another increase in new home

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

sales, as there have only been 33 such sales so far this year. It is interesting to note that the median price per square foot is showing signs of steadying, with only a very small decline between 2010 and 2011 (and 2012). As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes may continue to increase.

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Days on Market Analysis Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months > 2 years, 31, 4%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Days on Market Analysis Active Listings > 2 years, 53, 8%

1 - 2 years, 107, 13%

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1 - 2 years, 103, 15%

0 - 3 months, 260, 31%

0 - 3 months, 227, 32%

9 - 12 months, 78, 9% 9 - 12 months, 41, 6%

6 - 9 months, 121, 14% 6 - 9 months, 88, 12%

3 - 6 months, 246, 29%

Average Days On Market: 217 Days on market relatively low amongst many homes that actually slow. Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, nearly 1 out of 3 homes (31%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those

3 - 6 months, 194, 27%

Average Days On Market: 253 that close in the next 90 days and we find that an amazing 60% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market.

d 1

September 9, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Days on Market Analysis by Price Range Properties Sold in the Past 12 Months

0 -3 Months

All Homes

3 - 6 Months

6 - 9 Months

31%

Avg = 217

Under $200k

1 - 2 Years

29%

33%

Avg = 199

9 - 12 Months

2+ Years

14%

30%

14%

13%

12%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$200k - $300k

27%

Avg = 240

$300k - $400k

30%

28%

Avg = 259

$400k and up

22%

32%

Avg = 241

10%

14%

15%

18%

20%

30%

40%

Sales pace varies by price range. The time that it takes to sell a home in todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s market varies based on the price range of the home in question. For example, only 63% of homes that sold under $200K sold in the first six months of being on the

18%

50%

60%

11%

14%

13%

15%

70%

18%

80%

90%

100%

market, while only 50% of homes over $400,000 were able to sell in that same time period.

Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac

3.59%

3.49%

3.75%

3.66%

3.88%

4.00%

3.99%

3.95%

3.98%

3.95%

3.98%

4.10%

4.01%

4.22%

4.55%

4.51%

4.60%

4.78%

4.86%

4.95%

4.76%

4.71%

4.30%

4.23%

4.35%

4.50%

4.43%

4.56%

4.89%

4.74%

5.10%

4.97%

4.99%

5.03%

4.93%

5.00%

4.88%

5.06%

4.95%

5.50%

5.19%

6.00%

3.50% 3.00% Aug-09

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA

Unemployment Rate 6.4%

6.3%

5.9% 5.3%

5.8%

6.0%

5.6%

5.7%

5.6%

6.1%

6.3% 5.8%

6.2%

6.1%

6.4%

6.0%

6.1%

5.3%

5.50%

5.4%

6.00%

6.1%

6.50%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

6.5%

7.00%

6.8%

d 1

September 9, 2012

5.00% 4.50% 4.00% Jul-10

Mortgage rates up; unemployment levels up. As shown in the top graph above, home buyers continue to find amazingly low interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, though the current average rate of 3.59% increases slightly from last

Jul-11

Jul-12

month. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which showed an exciting low of 5.3% in April 2012, but has since climbed back up to 6.4%.

d 1

September 9, 2012

Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker

Local Online Real Estate Resources . . . .

Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to sellers of luxury homes and builder/developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction.

Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search http://www.ScottPRogers.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports http://www.HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary http://www.HarrisonburgHousingToday.com

Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scottâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.

Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities http://www.HarrisonburgTownhouses.com

In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgForeclosures.com

In both 2010 and 2011, Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.

Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham http://www.HarrisonburgREO.com

For more information, or with questions, contact:

Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgShortSales.com

SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile) scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com

Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

New Home Communities http://www.HarrisonburgNewHomes.com

Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com