Page 1

NOVEMBER 2012 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through October 31, 2012 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

Luxurious one-level, low-maintenance living in Harrisonburg, VA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3120PrestonLakeBlvd.com


d 1

November 12, 2012

Executive Summary The summary below is based on residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reflected in the HRAR MLS.

Pace of Home Sales: October

Pace of Home Sales: Year to Date

Buyer Activity

Home Values: October

Home Values: Year to Date

Single Family Home Sales

74 homes sold in October 2012, showing a 32% increase over October 2011 when 56 homes sold -- and a 51% increase from October 2010 when 49 homes sold.

Median sales prices declined 5.6% and average sales prices increased 8.4% when comparing October 2012 to October 2011.

712 homes sold in the first ten months of 2012. This is an 8% increase from 2011 when 657 homes had sold, and a 12% increase as compared to 2010 when 636 homes sold.

Median sales prices increased 0.6% and average sales prices increased 1.4% when comparing 2012 YTD values to 2011 YTD.

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

90 buyers committed to buy in October 2012, compared to 84 in October 2011 -- which is a 7.1% increase.

544 single family homes sold thus far in 2012, compared to a total of 622 in 2011. The median sales price has increased to $195,000.

Days on Market: October

Days on Market: Year to Date

Townhouse Sales

Foreclosures

Supply

Lot Sales

Inventory

Price Per Square Foot

Land Sales

Homes sold in an average of 214 days in October 2012, a 16% increase from 185 days in October 2011 and a 2% increase from the 210 day average in October 2010.

207 trustee deeds have been recorded thus far in 2012 compared to 712 home sales reported through the HRAR MLS.

Inventory levels decreased during October 2012 to 655 residential properties currently for sale, down from 698 one month ago, and down from 810 one year ago.

The length of time on the market for homes selling in 2012 (220 days) increased 6% since 2011 when the average was 208 days on the market.

All price ranges still show an excess of housing supply, with 8 months under $200k, 9 months between $200k and $300k, 10 months between 300k and $400k, and 36 months above $400k.

Median price per square foot of single family homes has decreased to 105/sf in the 3rd quarter of 2012, as compared to $106/sf in the 2nd quarter of 2012.

168 townhouses sold thus far in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 169 townhomes. The median townhome sales price has declined to $139,500 in 2012 from $144,000 in 2011.

45 lots of less than an acre sold thus far in 2012, compared to a 2011 total of 60 lots. Median lot sales prices have risen to $56,000 from $54,500 during 2011.

39 parcels of land greater than an acre sold thus far in 2012 compared to 49 land sales during all of 2011. The median price per acre has decreased to $12,836 in 2012.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


d 1

November 12, 2012

HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

# Home Sales

November 12, 2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

% Change ('11 - '12)

October

62

49

56

74

32.14%

Year-To-Date

665

636

657

712

8.37%

2009

2010

2011

2012

% Change ('11 - '12)

October

$184,748

$189,900

$182,000

$171,834

-5.59%

Year-To-Date

$190,000

$180,750

$174,000

$175,000

0.57%

2009

2010

2011

2012

% Change ('11 - '12)

October

$205,617

$192,382

$185,106

$200,576

8.36%

Year-To-Date

$218,096

$209,120

$195,878

$198,632

1.41%

Average Days on Market

2009

2010

2011

2012

% Change ('11 - '12)

October

163

210

185

214

15.68%

Year-To-Date

188

193

208

220

5.77%

Median Sales Price

Average Sales Price

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Strong October sales buoy YTD 2012 after slow September. September sales (see Page 4) cooled down a bit, but October home sales rocketed the market ahead again, showing a 32% increase over October 2011. This brought the YTD pace of home sales 8.4% over 2011 YTD sales. Furthermore, prices are showing further signs of

stabilization, with a 1% increase in YTD median sales prices, and 1% increase in YTD average sales prices. Despite this positive signs, the average time on the market for homes that sell continues to rise, now up to 214 days.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

# Home Sales

2011

2012

% Change

2011

2012

% Change

October

23

30

30.43%

33

44

33.33%

Year-To-Date

231

254

9.96%

426

458

7.51%

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

Median Sales Price

2011

2012

% Change

2011

2012

% Change

October

$164,300

$157,000

-4.44%

$190,000

$184,750

-2.76%

Year-To-Date

$165,500

$161,200

-2.60%

$181,475

$192,033

5.82%

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

Average Days on Market

2011

2012

% Change

2011

2012

% Change

October

183

239

30.60%

186

198

6.45%

Year-To-Date

220

230

4.55%

202

214

5.94%

Sales stronger in the City, Prices stronger in the County. The data tables above explores overall sales trends of properties in the City of Harrisonburg as compared to Rockingham County. Don’t mind the drastic swings when only comparing one month of data, as the sample size is quite small -- pay more attention to the YTD

changes in the metrics noted above. For example, the County has seen an increase (+5.82%) in year-to-date median sales price over the past year, while the City has seen a decline (-2.60%) in the same metric. The rate of increase in sales, however, is stronger in the City (+9.96%) as compared to the County (+7.51%).

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Month-By-Month Home Sales History 125

2009 2010

117

2011 2012

October 2012 74 Home Sales

100 95

Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales

d 1

November 12, 2012

94 86

84

83 78

75

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

73

92 84

81

77

77 75

79 77

71

71

68

66

67 62

61

53 53

45 40 39 37

46

79

74

69 64

62 58

57

50

79

55

49

51

MAR

APR

52

56

49

38

25

0 JAN

FEB

MAY

JUN

So long September, we’re glad October replaced you! September home sales were surprisingly slow this year (67) as compared to last September (79) -- but October made up for that slow spell, with 74 home sales as compared to 62 last October. This was the strongest pace of home sales we have seen in any recenty October in

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

our local market. Looking ahead, the energetic November of 2009 was related to a tax credit deadline, so the more normal November sales figures seem to be in the high 50’s. Our market seems poised to finish out 2012 with strength.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 140

121 120 104 100

102 96

88

84 80

104

95

78

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

74

84

86

74

60

60

59

55

54

98

90

90

67 56

59

51

48

45

100

80

76

62

60

93

87

84

75 69

40

40

20

820 contracts

923 contracts

1,027 contracts

Another strong month of contracts. There must be something about October --there was a burst of buyers signing contracts last October (2011) and again this year the October contract numbers were quite strong with 90 contracts signed. This buoys our YTD contract figure to 1,027 contracts -- well above the past two years.

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

Jul-11

Jun-11

May-11

Apr-11

Mar-11

Feb-11

Jan-11

Dec-10

Nov-10

Oct-10

Sep-10

Aug-10

Jul-10

Jun-10

May-10

Apr-10

Mar-10

Feb-10

Jan-10

Dec-09

Nov-09

0 Oct-09

d 1

November 12, 2012

These strong months of contract figures this Fall bode well for the remainder of this year’s sales figures. We are likely to see healthy closing figures in November and December based on all of the buyers who signed contracts in August, September and October.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 900

DEC

800

700

794

758

715

694 600

657

636

601

587

d 1

500

532 470

400

418 300

200

100

0

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

NOV 712 638

366

AUG

479

JUL

385

301

285

301

230

217

224

147

139

151

45

78 40

85 39

2010

2011

2012

98

We could almost take November off. This graph shows the month by month cumulative count of residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Last year’s home sales (794) exceeded 2010 home sales (758), and this year is off to a good start with stronger year-to-date sales (712) as compared to 2011 (657) during

SEP

571

522 443

OCT

JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN

the same time period. With sales only on the books through the end of October, our annual pace of sales (712) almost matches the first eleven months of 2011 (715)! We could almost (almost) take November off, and still finish off the year ahead of last year.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Inventory Levels

1000 927 900

800

865

846 787

778

807

832

870

872

882

877

-19% 846 810 748 708

700

672

671

665

733

751

721

727

706

698 655

600

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

500

400

300

200

100

0

Inventory levels keep on dropping. The declines in median sales price seen over the past several years are partly due to the imbalance in the market between the number of sellers (too many) and the number of buyers (too few). With contracts on the rise (see page 6) and inventory declining (see above) we are slowly moving

towards a more balanced market. It has actually been quite a rapid improvement over the past two years --- with a 19% decline in inventory over the past 12 months, and an overall 29% decline over the past 24 months. We are likely to see inventory levels continue to taper off through the remainder of the year.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes

$250,000

1,800

1,000

+4%

$127,700

+6%

-0.3%

$122,588

+17%

$122,900

$116,000

600

+14%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

+29%

829 800

+8%

$169,900

1,071

d 1

+14%

1,153

$149,000

1,200

-3%

-3%

1,248

$175,000

-5%

-13%

$192,983

+15%

+0.2%

$174,900

1,324

+1%

$180,000

1,438

+14%

$186,000

-14%

1,507

1,400

$195,100

+11%

1,600

$195,500

1,669

-25%

$200,000

$150,000 936 -13%

816

-7% 758 +4% 791

712

400

$100,000

$50,000

200

$0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Home prices steadying. This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). After five years of declines in home sales (2005-2010) the

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

pace finally picked up in 2011 with a 4% year-over-year increase. With stronger YTD sales in 2012 (+8.4%) we will likely see further improvement in the pace of home sales this year, and it seems quite possible that home values (as measured by median price) will level off this year, as they have increased slightly so far this year.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$190,000 $175,000

$175,950

$175,000

$173,000

$174,900

$174,900

$174,900

$175,800

$175,000

$176,650

$175,650

$175,000

$175,825

Annualized Median Sales Prices

$174,250

$180,000

$179,800

$180,000

$180,000

$179,900

$178,500

$178,750

$183,950

$181,700

$183,000

$185,000

$184,000

$185,000

$185,000

$186,000

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$175,575

1,500

$186,000

$187,225

2,000

$189,250

$210,000

$170,000

Annualized Home Sales

849

843

831

830

813

810

806

801

801

793

$150,000

Growth!

500

0 Nov-09

794

779

779

772

748

731

742

706

745

750

738

758

753

789

763

802

833

818

876

849

845

825

817

825

817

1,000

817

Stability!

775

d 1

November 12, 2012

$130,000

Nov-10

Increasing sales pace; stable sales prices. This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point is showing one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of

Nov-11

$110,000 Nov-12

evaluating sales figures on a month-by-month basis. After a slight dip in September, the annualized pace of home sales continues to increase, now to 849 sales per year. Median sales prices continue to stay steadily around $175,000 --- where they have been for over a year now.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes

1,200

800

+24% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

674 +8%

$147,000

+2%

$136,000

$122,850

+9%

$133,239

600

+16%

$195,000

-7%

$185,500

-2%

$199,600

-5%

-12%

798

$225,000

$175,000 -18%

$170,000

+29%

d 1

-4%

+8% 909

+3% 880

$210,000

868 -2% 851

-1%

$204,500

+16%

-11%

$215,000

1,000

$223,575

1,024 n/a 1,025

$226,800

$275,000

654 -14%

563 -1% 555

+12%

622 544

$125,000

400

$75,000

200

$25,000

0

-$25,000 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Prices of single family homes increase. The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County seems to be recovering quite nicely compared to the overall market. Last year, the pace of home sales in the single family home

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

market increased by 12% -- nearing 2008 sales levels with 622 sales. Single family homes are performing well again in 2012, and median prices are currently showing an increase from $185,500 (last year) to $195,000 for the first ten months of 2012.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos

+9%

+5% +47%

+6%

302

300

+10%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$118,500

$94,600

400

$89,000

d 1

483

444

$108,200

$103,100

+9%

-7%

450 $120,000 -37%

$100,000 282

-11%

$80,000

253 -20%

203 155

$160,000

$140,000

-15%

+14%

+49%

200

-5%

$139,500

$167,250

-3%

529

$134,950

500

+19%

+2%

$144,000

+33%

+2%

$180,000

$154,500

-18%

$161,875

600

$163,800

644

$160,850

700

203 -17%

+31%

$60,000 169

168 $40,000

100 $20,000

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Townhouse sales picking up pace (compared to last year). After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, we might finally be seeing the “bottom� as it comes to the pace of sales. There were only 169 townhouse sales during 2011, and we have already seen 168 townhouse

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

sales in the first ten months of 2012. This is, of course, with a trade off on prices, which continue to decline, though not quite as rapidly as they had for the past several years.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS

Recorded Trustee Deeds

1,800 1,669 1,600

1,507 1,438

1,400

1,324 1,248

1,200

1,153 1,071

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,000

936 829

3.5X 816

800

758

3.4X

791 712

600

400 270 200 56

91

63

75

70

86

93

97

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

118

177

223

207

0 2000

2001

Foreclosures up from last year. The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up in blue when they are listed as REO properties. The foreclosure rate has increased somewhat in 2012, as there were 3.5 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2011 and only 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures thus far in 2012.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)

$0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

50 45 40 40

38

38

38

37

38

Post-Tax -C

35

38

37

36

37

39

39

40

40

40

41

43

42

43

41

19

19

20

20

20

20

37

Recovery?

redit De c

d 1

40

41

42

41

line

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

30 25 20 16

17

16

16

16

16

15

15

15

14

15

16

17

17

17

17

18

18

18

18

Recovery?

10 6

5

6

6

5

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

6

6

6

6

3

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

5 0

Recovery more evident in lower price ranges. The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two

years. Home sales under $200,000 has increased for the past year (and then some), as has the pace of sales between $200,000 and $300,000. The pace of home sales between $300,000 and $400,000 has been relatively steady, and the highest price range ($400,000 and up) has seen slower sales over the past two years.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

550 500 450

448 426

443 414

447

457

452

451

454

451

444

416

-22%

433 399

400

339

350

d 1

343

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

300

350

353

360

353

370

357

355 336

328

283 259

250

218

208

208

216

230

232

232

236

229

221

203

200

189

194

180

185

81

77

79

72

66

64

206

214

222

209

201

199

84

79

75

75

77

75

207 187

150 105 100 91 50

89

85

89

86

72

70

65

70

88 81

97 81

105

81

103 86

106

86

112

85

101

80

99

75

89

71

77 75

87

91

79

78

72

72

64

60

0

Big drop in inventory in lowest price segment. Inventory levels have declined across the board over the past two years, but the changes have been quite different based on list prices. The most significant change has been in homes under $200,000 -- just 12 months ago there were 433 such properties for sale, and today there are only

336 for sale -- this marks an 22% decline in inventory. These declines in inventory over the past two years are definitely making a difference in helping to return us to greater balance in the local housing market.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

40 38 36 35

33 31 29

30

d 1

25

28 25

27

19

20 18

17 15

15

17

16

19 17 16

26

26 25

11

11

11

18

17

11

13 12

18

17

15

15

23

17

17

12

12

14

16 14

14 12

25

24

16 17

13

18

16

16 13

10

26

25

23 21

20

26

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

13

12

12

13

14

15

16 14

13

13

13 12

12 11

11 10

10

10

11

8

9

8

11 9

12 9

11 12 9

11 9

10

10

10

9

8

9

10 9 8

5

Housing supply spikes in high price ranges. With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 36 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the

same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six months supply of housing to be a balance between buyers and sellers in the market, and it is remarkable to note that we are finally starting to approach that balance in the under $200K market.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace

102.0%

2,250

2,000

1,750

99.1% 97.4%

97.7%

97.8%

99.1%

100.0%

98.9%

98.1%

98.0% 1,669

96.2%

1,507

1,500

98.0%

96.9% 1,438

95.7% 94.7%

1,324

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

95.2%

1,248

1,250

96.0%

94.0%

1,153 1,071

1,000

92.0%

936 829

816

750

758

791 712

90.0%

500

88.0%

250

86.0%

84.0%

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Buyers experiencing slightly less flexibility on pricing. This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an average

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating. Last year may have offered the most flexibility for buyers --- with homes selling at an average of 94.7% of their asing prices --- this metric now shows an improvement to 95.2% of the asking price for home sales during the first ten months of 2012.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Median Price Per Square Foot Trends Single Family Homes

$100.00

d 1

$76 $73 $73 $73 $76 $77 $74 $78 $79 $80 $82 $84 $83 $86 $87 $92 $90 $96 $99

$105 $105

$125.00

$113 $119 $123 $126 $130 $131 $125 $129 $128 $127 $126 $125 $126 $121 $115 $116 $120 $117 $116 $107 $120 $108 $115 $101 $103 $103 $102 $100 $106 $105

$150.00

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$75.00

$50.00

$25.00

$0.00 2000-Q1

2001-Q1

2002-Q1

2003-Q1

2004-Q1

2005-Q1

2006-Q1

Price per square foot showing possible signs of stability. In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over

2007-Q1

2008-Q1

2009-Q1

2010-Q1

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Of late, however, the price per square foot has shown signs of stabilization.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


d 1

November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes

0 - 1,499 SF

1,500 - 2,500 SF

2,500+ SF

150

140

$138

$140 $133

130

$126 $123

120

$122

$123

$123 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$116

$117

$119

$112

$115

110

$105

100

$115

$107

90

$111 $103 $105

$96

$97

2011

2012

80

70

60 2006

2007

2008

Prices edge up in all price ranges. Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of

2009

2010

larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($97/SF) than homes that offer less than 1500 SF ($115/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre

$120,000

450 $99,900

408 400

$100,000

$76,500

350 304 300

$32,208

$30,500

$26,000

165

$36,900

$56,000

$54,500

$59,900

$58,300

$55,000

201

200

150

247

$54,500

250

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$60,000

$42,000

261

d 1

$80,000

$40,000 111

100

85

Stability?

74 58

63

2009

2010

$20,000

60 45

50

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Lot sales (< 1 acre) stabilizing? While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized in 2011. In 2009, there were 58 lot sales of less than an acre, in

2007

2008

2011

2012

2010 that increased to 63 sales, and 2011 finished out with 60 sales. The median sales price of these lots under one acre may also be stabilizing between $55,000 and $60,000.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


d 1

November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre

$100k + 20 listings 7%

$0 - $40k 28 listings 10%

$80k - $100k 42 listings 15% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$40k - $60k 114 listings 40% $60k - $80k 79 listings 28%

283 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $60,000

Many (many) lots for sale. Despite the fact that only 60 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2011, there are a remarkable 283 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($60,000) is only slightly higher than the 2012 YTD median sales price of $56,000. Given last

yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 60 lot sales, if no other lots were listed for sale, it would take roughly 4.75 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, almost half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012) median sales prices.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more

$30,000

180

$24,184

168

$8,333

$8,245

58

83 77

$9,535

76

80

$15,000

$10,000

53

42

49 42

$8,234

40

$12,836

87

$12,003

100

$20,000

$16,355

107

$14,552

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$15,424

d 1

$15,000

120

$17,713

140

60

$25,000 $21,250

160

39 27

$5,000

20

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Larger lot sales slow again (slightly) in 2012. Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2011 as compared to both 2009 and 2010. During all of 2010, only 27 such land sales were recorded in the HRAR MLS, but there were a total of 49 such sales during 2011. This increase in

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

the pace of sales is very likely causing the increase in median price per acre that was experienced between 2010 and 2011. This year, however we are seeing a slightly slower pace (39) of sales, and the median price per acre has fallen back down to $12,836.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


d 1

November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more

$100k + 28 listings 11%

$0 - $10k 53 listings 20%

$50k - $100k 29 listings 11% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$40k - $50k 14 listings 5%

$30k - $40k 30 listings 11%

$10k - $20k 77 listings 29% $20k - $30k 33 listings 13%

264 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $20,692 / Acre

High (really high) levels of lot inventory. Despite the fact that only 49 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2011, there are a remarkable 264 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $15,000 per acre, the median list price of the 264 parcels

for sale is currently $20,692 per acre. Given last yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 49 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take over five years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot

200 186 200

180

$129

$129

150

$133

109

$114

$105

80

$99

89 $94

100

$130

121

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

120

$146

139

$137

140

137

$150

138

140

$144

158

160

$87

d 1

November 12, 2012

100

84

60 41

40

45

42

50

20

0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

New home sales stabilizing, prices steady. New home builders finally saw an increase in the pace of new home sales during 2011 -- after a steady decline since 2005. This small increase (42 to 45), however, still leaves plenty of room for improvement -- though it appears that we may see a further increase in 2012.

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

The median price per square foot is also showing signs of steadying, with only a very small decline between 2010 and 2011 (and 2012). As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes should continue to increase.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Days on Market Analysis Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months > 2 years, 34, 4%

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Days on Market Analysis Active Listings > 2 years, 57, 9%

1 - 2 years, 105, 12%

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1 - 2 years, 89, 14%

0 - 3 months, 262, 31%

0 - 3 months, 212, 32%

9 - 12 months, 74, 9% 9 - 12 months, 40, 6% 6 - 9 months, 113, 13% 6 - 9 months, 94, 14%

3 - 6 months, 261, 31%

Average Days On Market: 217 Days on market relatively low amongst many homes that actually slow. Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, nearly 1 out of 3 homes (31%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those

3 - 6 months, 163, 25%

Average Days On Market: 261 that close in the next 90 days and we find that an amazing 62% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


d 1

November 12, 2012

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Days on Market Analysis by Price Range Properties Sold in the Past 12 Months

0 -3 Months

All Homes

31%

Under $200k

32%

Avg = 217

Avg = 203

3 - 6 Months

6 - 9 Months

9 - 12 Months

1 - 2 Years

31%

2+ Years

13%

32%

9%

14%

12%

8%

12%

4%

3%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$200k - $300k

29%

Avg = 235

$300k - $400k

32%

27%

Avg = 247

$400k and up

27%

33%

Avg = 249

0%

10%

12%

15%

13%

20%

30%

40%

Sales pace varies by price range. The time that it takes to sell a home in todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s market varies based on the price range of the home in question. For example, 64% of homes that sold under $200K sold in the first six months of being on the

11%

21%

50%

10%

14%

8%

60%

70%

12%

7%

21%

80%

5%

4%

90%

100%

market, while only 46% of homes over $400,000 were able to sell in that same time period.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac

3.00% Oct-09

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Oct-10

Oct-11

3.41%

3.40%

3.50%

3.59%

3.49%

3.66%

3.75%

4.00%

3.88%

3.99%

3.95%

3.98%

3.98%

3.95%

4.10%

4.01%

4.22%

4.55%

4.51%

4.60%

4.86%

4.78%

4.95%

4.76%

4.71%

4.30%

4.23%

4.35%

4.56%

4.50%

4.43%

4.74%

4.89%

5.10%

4.97%

4.99%

5.03%

4.93%

5.00%

4.88%

5.50%

4.95%

6.00%

Oct-12

Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA

Unemployment Rate

5.6%

5.9%

6.5%

6.3%

5.9% 5.3%

5.8%

6.0%

5.6%

5.7%

5.6%

6.1%

6.1%

6.3% 5.8%

6.2%

6.1%

6.0%

6.1%

5.3%

5.50%

5.4%

6.00%

6.1%

6.50%

6.1%

7.00%

6.4%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

6.1%

d 1

November 12, 2012

5.00% 4.50% 4.00% Sep-10

Mortgage rates flat; unemployment levels down. As shown in the top graph above, home buyers continue to find amazingly low interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages. After a brief spike in August 2012, average interest rates are now

Sep-11

Sep-12

back to their pattern of breaking all-time historic lows, with a current average of 3.41%. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which dropped again in September, down to 5.6%.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


d 1

November 12, 2012

Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker

Local Online Real Estate Resources . . . .

Scott P. Rogers, an Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to sellers of luxury homes and builder/developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction.

Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search http://www.ScottPRogers.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports http://www.HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary http://www.HarrisonburgHousingToday.com

Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scottâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.

Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities http://www.HarrisonburgTownhouses.com

In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgForeclosures.com

In both 2010 and 2011, Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.

Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham http://www.HarrisonburgREO.com

For more information, or with questions, contact:

Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgShortSales.com

SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile) scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com

Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

New Home Communities http://www.HarrisonburgNewHomes.com

Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County http://www.HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2012.


November 2012 Real Estate Market Report  

Harrisonburg and rockingham County

Advertisement
Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you