RNI REG.No DELENG/2013/50357
OD/ MAy / 2020 / INR - 300 UAD - 10 ENG
www.observerdawn.com
Year-10, Issue-5, May 2020, Price : `300
Power of Thoughts
DEADLY
VIRUS
NOT INFECTED BUT AFFECTED
OUTLOOK 2020
TOURS & TRAVEL
38
BIG LOSS IN MUTUAL FUND SIP? KNOW YOUR OPTIONS
INVESTMENT
DEFENCE
Letter from the
Power of Thoughts
Editor
INDIA-CHINA FACE OFF
Editor in Chief HARIOM TYAGI
Not Only a Battle of ‘Territory’, but an Eco-Political ‘Game’
Business Editor
Senior Editor
YOGESH SOOD
KULDEEP TYAGI
Senior Asst. Editor
Consulting Editor
PRAVIN KUMAR MISHRA
RAKESH PUROHIT DINESH GAUR
Sub Editor SHRISHTI S NAGAR
CREATIVES Design Head
Senior Producer
ANIL KUMAR
ROBIN GUPTA
Photographer SACHIN KUMAR
SALES AND MARKETING Deputy National Marketing HEAD GAURAV SHANKER KHARE
Business Development Manager PARVEEN KR. SINGH
Senior Manager - Marketing VAIBHAV CHAUHAN SHYAMAL SURI
CIRCULATION SANJEEV KR SINGH
CO-ORDINATION TWINKLE SINGH
CORPORATE OFFICE B-97, Sector-63, Noida, Gautambuddh Nagar, U.P. Contact No.: 0120-4804780
OBSERVER DAWN MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT PRIVATE LIMITED Publisher/Printer/Editor: Mr. Hariom Tyagi Published from B-97, Sector -63, Noida-201301, U.P. Printed at Modest Print Pack Pvt. Ltd., C-52, DDA Sheds, Phase-I, Okhla Industrial Area, New Delhi-110020 www.observerdawn.com • info@observerdawn.com Contact No.: 0120-4804747 ©All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, electronic, mechanical or otherwise without prior permission. All disputes are subject to the jurisdiction of competent court in Delhi / New Delhi only.
T
he India-China border dispute is gradually taking momentum and possibilities of taking the entire scenario into a menacing turn cannot be ruled out. The diplomatic approaches so far went in vain. Engagements are on at various levels. Militar y interlocutors have met several times and both nations have, at least publicly, professed faith in ‘talks’ and past agreements as the path for ‘peaceful resolution’. Instead of lessening of tension, de-escalation and withdrawal of troops and eventual restoration of status quo ante, both the nations were engaged in deploying more arms and armaments at the LAC. Indian PM, Narendra Modi’s unannounced visit to the sensitive spots in eastern Ladakh, where he interacted with troops, met the soldiers who were injured in the 15 June deadly clash at Galwan and delivered an address, spread a different messages. In his speech at Nimu against the backdrop of Zanskar Mountains amid forward-deployed troops, Modi had plenty of messages for China without naming it. The media reports reveal that South Block has reached out to envoys of permanent members of the Security Council on China's aggression at the LAC and attempts to change the facts on ground. As the country did during the Doklam standoff, Japan again stated its support for India, opposing any unilateral attempt to change the status quo. Furthermore, PM Narendra Modi’s recent visit and investment of political capital have raised the stakes in Ladakh. Not just a morale booster for the troops, but the visit was also a political act showcasing India’s unity, strength and resolve in not rolling over and playing dead before Chinese aggression. The message was not lost on Beijing that interpreted Modi’s move as escalatory and accused India of undermining the effort to lower the temperatures through military and diplomatic channels. China’s ambassador to India, Ji Rong, went a step ahead and termed the Indian PM’s speech – groundless, exaggerated and fabricated. As such, it is evident that trust between the two nations is in short supply. Now the question is whether India’s ban on Chinese Apps would amount to a digital airstrike? A concrete answer is still in awaited due to several reasons. The decision to ban 59 Chinese apps and its full impact may only now become clearer. Instead of terming it only an economic retaliation against China, it may also be termed as a partial firewalling of the Indian economy from the malicious machinations of a rogue state actor, a step that was overdue. The growing footprint of China in and eventual domination of Indian digital territory could be more harmful than its territorial aggression along the LAC, and unless checked in time, it may further aggravate and sponsor more Chinese attacks on Indian soil, and allow CPC to interfere in Indian political and social spheres, as well as limit and stunt India’s growth and digital ambitions.
Connect with Hariom Tyagi Hariom Tyagi Editor-in-Chief Observer Dawn
@harityagi2003
@harityagi
GOLDEN CHANCE TO RECEIVE OBSERVER DAWN DELIVERED TO YOUR DOOR EVERY MONTH!
Please Contact: 0120-4804780 3/50357
ENG/201
.No DEL
RNI REG
com
rdawn.
bserve
300 UAD
- 10 ENG
www.o
/ INR -
ghts
OD/ MAy
/ 2020
Thou Power of
Year-10,
Issue-5,
May 2020
, Price
: `300
DEADLY
VIRUS
NOT D INFECTE T BU D AFFECTE
38
SS IN BIG LO ND SIP? S AL FU MUTU UR OPTION YO KNOW
E
MENT
K 2020
OUTLOO
INVEST
AVEL
TR URS &
TO
DEFENC
Yes, I Would like to subscribe for the following magazines For 1 Year Magazine Type Cost
Original Price
For 2 Years
Discounted You Get Price
Original Discounted Price Price
For 3 Years
You Get
Original Price
Discounted Price
You Get
Observer Dawn (Hindi) Monthly
`100
`1200
`1000
2 month free
`2400
`2000
4 month free
`3600
`3000
6 month free
Observer Dawn (Eng.) Monthly
`300
`3600
`3000
2 month free
`7200
`6000
4 month free
`10800
`9000
6 month free
Observer Dawn is available in these 2 languages, please tick the option: English
Hindi
Attached Cheque/DD No.
Date
Bank
Please write your name and address behind cheque/DD For Observer Dawn Media & Entertainment Pvt. Ltd. Name Phone
Address
State
Pin
Please Fill this form and send to Observer Dawn Media & Entertainment Pvt. Ltd. B-97, Sector-63, Noida. *Terms and Conditions: Prices and discounts are only offered in India. Please allow 4-6 weeks for processing of subscription. For further information please do not hesitate to call: 0120-4804780. Write to us at: info@observerdawn.com
BRIEFING COVER STORY
NATIONAL
10
India Signs MoU with Denmark for Power Sector Cooperation
24
SINO-INDIA
BILATERAL RELATIONS A POLITICAL TREE
INTERNATIONAL
12
OPINIONS
16
Army Delegates Holds 3rd Consecutive Meeting With Chinese Counterparts
BUSINESS OUTLOOK
14
Could ‘Antibody Test’ be a Game Changer in India?
IN-DEPTH
Economic Recovery in Germany Could Be Possible From October
August 2020
20
Mr Bean’s Essential COVID-19 Checklist to Make People More Vigilant
OBSERVER DAWN
7
BRIEFING
34
40
48 8
DEFENCE Chinese Army Withdraws Troops from Three Face-Off Sites
INT’L BIZ Already-Deterred Coal Industries in Poland Witnessing another Hurdle Due to Coronavirus
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Special on World Photography Day 19 August
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
52
56
58
SPECIAL STORY Achieving ‘Herd Immunity’ through Natural Infection, a Real Hazard
ECO-SYSTEM Average Temperatures to Grow 1°C Every Year From 2020 – 2024
TOUR & TRAVEL After Corona visit these places near Delhi to freshen up
National
INDIA SIGNS MOU WITH DENMARK FOR POWER SECTOR COOPERATION
A
n MoU on Indo-Denmark Energy Cooperation has been signed between the Power Ministry and the Ministry for Energy, Utilities and Climate, Government of the Kingdom of Denmark to develop a strong, deep and long-term co-operation between two countries. On the basis of equality, reciprocity and mutual benefit, the MoU on June 5 was signed by Power Secretary Sanjiv Nandan Sahai from the Indian side and Mr Freddy Svane, Ambassador of Denmark to India from the Danish side. The MoU provides for collaboration in areas like offshore wind, long term energy planning, forecasting, flexibility in the grid, consolidation of grid codes to integrate and operate efficiently variable generation options, flexibility in the power purchase agreements, incentivize power plant flexibility, variability in renewable energy production among others. The Indian electricity market would benefit from cooperation with Denmark in these areas. For implementation of the identified areas, a Joint Working Group will be established under the MoU. The JWG will be co-chaired by Joint Secretary level officials and will report to a Steering Committee, jointly chaired by the Secretary
level officer from both the sides, according to a statement here on Monday. he Governments will endeavour to take necessary steps to encourage and promote strategic and technical co-operation in the power sector for mutual benefit in the identified areas through the MoU.
INDIAN GOVERNMENT BANS 59 CHINESE APPS
W
ith the Government of India posing ban on 59 Chinese apps across the country, the much publicized Chinese video-making app, TikTok, said that the company representative was also invited by the Government bodies to respond and submit their clarifications in this regards. The TikTok India issued its statement on Tuesday, a day after it was blocked. Citing security threats, the GOI government has on Monday banned TikTok, along with 59 top Chinese apps. The latest move of the Indian government move came amid escalating tensions between India and China over the June 15 clash in Ladakh in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed in action. TikTok, UC Browser, WeChat, Shareit and CamScanner are among the Chinese apps that were blocked by the government for engaging in activities prejudicial to the sovereignty and integrity of India, defense of India, security of state and public order, the government said. The Full Statement issued by TikTok India envisages, “The Government of India has issued an interim order for the blocking of 59 apps, including TikTok and we are in the process of complying with it. We have been invited to meet with concerned government stakeholders for an opportunity to respond and submit clarifications. TikTok continues to comply with all data
10
The latest move of the Indian government move came amid escalating tensions between India and China over the June 15 clash in Ladakh in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed in action
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
privacy and security requirements under Indian law and have not shared any information of our users in India with any foreign government, including the Chinese Government. Further, if we are requested to in, we would not do so. We place the highest importance on user privacy and integrity�. The TikTok has democratized the internet by making it available in 14 Indian languages, with hundreds of millions of users, artists, story-tellers, educators and performers depending on it for their livelihood, many of whom are first time internet users. The entire statement was issued under the letter head of the Head of TikTok India, Nikhil Gandhi.
National
INDIA TO PROMOTE GLOBAL PEACE: PM MODI
I
ndian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, showed his utmost gratitude to the global community for their support and allaround cooperation. He also added that India would work to promote global peace, security, resilience and equity across the world. PM Modi spoke to the global media hours after India was elected to the UNSC with an overwhelming majority. He said "Deeply grateful for the overwhelming support shown by the global community for
India's membership of the UN Security Council. India will work with all member countries to promote global peace, security, resilience and equity”. His remarks came after India was elected to the Security Council with an overwhelming majority of 184 votes running on a platform of fighting terrorism and promoting the ethos of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam -- the world is one family. Wednesday's elections took place against the backdrop of the conflict in Ladakh with China, whom it will join on the Council in January. India won the Asia Pacific seat on the highest decision-making body of the UN with the unanimous support of the countries in the 55-member group, with China and Pakistan, at least openly, conceding support in the face of an overwhelming backing for India from the others. Union Home Minister, Amit Shah, also expressed gratitude to the member nations for supporting India's membership to the UN Security Council (UNSC), saying "India will will work towards peace and prosperity of the world”. In his Twitter post, Amit Shah said, "Gratitude to the member nations for unanimously supporting India's membership to the UN Security Council. Under the strong and visionary leadership of PM Narendra Modi, India will uphold its mantra of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' and will work towards peace and prosperity of the world”.
MODI CABINET DECIDES TO BOOST DAIRY, SPACE & OTHER SECTORS
T
aking a slew of decisions, the Union Cabinet Chaired by Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has decided to open up Indian space sector, pumping in money to create dairy infrastructure in the country, constructing an international airport at Kushinagar to boost tourism in the Buddhist circuit as well as giving a 6-month extension to the OBC Commission. While speaking about the creation of a new space body, Minister of State for Atomic Energy & Space, Jitendra Singh said, “A new institution has been formed. It will be known as Indian National Space, Promotion & Authorisation Centre. It will guide the private industries in space activities through encouraging policies in a friendly regulatory environment”. In a question asked by the media, the
Minister claimed ISRO’s role has been curtailed, he clarified that all these agencies will supplement each other. He also said that this will stop the “brain drain’ from India. Singh said, while ISRO will continue to do what it has been doing, the new body will “fill the gap and fulfill demand. Jitendra Singh added that the newly created Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre (IN-SPACE) provides a level playing field for private companies to use Indian space infrastructure. It will also hand-hold, promote and guide the private industries in space activities. Meanwhile, in a significant move that concerns the rural economy, the cabinet approved establishment of Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund worth Rs 15,000 crore. The government said that it will provide 3 per cent interest subvention to eligible beneficiaries, under this new endeavor. While, Information and Broadcasting Minister Prakash Javadekar claimed that it will help generate more jobs, Animal Husbandry Minister Giriraj Singh claimed that the new infrastructure will help India create quality cheese which was not possible so far. The cabinet also took a decision that may help the tourism sector that has taken a massive hit ever since the pandemic hit India. The cabinet on Wednesday also approved declaration of Kushinagar Airport in Uttar Pradesh as an International Airport. The cabinet also decided to extend the tenure of the Commission which was brought in to examine the issue of sub-categorization within Other Backward Classes, by another 6 months.
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
11
International
INDIAN PM WILLING TO PROMOTE GLOBAL PEACE
I
ndian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, showed his utmost gratitude to the global community for their all-around support & cooperation at global forum. PM Modi said that his government believed in promoting global peace, security and resilience across the world. PM Modi spoke to the global media hours after India was elected to the UNSC with an overwhelming majority. He said "Deeply grateful for the overwhelming support shown by the global community for India's membership of the UN Security Council. India will work with all member countries to promote global peace, security, resilience and equity”. His remarks came after India was elected to the Security Council with an overwhelming majority of 184 votes running on a platform of fighting terrorism and promoting the ehhos of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam -- the world is one family. Wednesday's elections took place against the backdrop of the conflict in Ladakh with China, whom it will join on the Council in January. India won the Asia Pacific seat on the highest decisionmaking body of the UN with the unanimous support of the countries in the 55-member group, with China and Pakistan, at least openly, conceding support in the face of an overwhelming backing for India from the others. Union Home Minister, Amit Shah, also expressed gratitude to the member nations for supporting India's membership to the UN Security Council (UNSC), saying "India will will work towards peace and prosperity of the world”. In his Twitter post, Amit Shah said, "Gratitude to the member nations for unanimously supporting India's membership to the UN Security Council. Under the strong and visionary leadership of PM Narendra Modi, India will uphold its mantra of 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' and will work towards
peace and prosperity of the world”. Shah's remarks came after India was elected as non-permanent member of the powerful UN Security Council for a two-year term on Wednesday, winning 184 votes in the 193-member General Assembly. There were 192 Member States present for voting and the 2/3 required majority was 128. Member States elected India to the non-permanent seat of the Security Council for the term 2021-22 with overwhelming support. With a comfortable victory of 184 votes, India will sit in the most powerful UN organ from January 1, 2021 along with the five permanent members China, France, Russia, the UK and the US as well as non-permanent members Estonia, Niger, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tunisia and Vietnam.
ARMY DELEGATES HOLD 3RD CONSECUTIVE MEETING WITH CHINESE COUNTERPARTS
T
alks between top Indian and Chinese military delegates started on Tuesday morning to resolve the border issue in eastern Ladakh. The Indian authorities have put a strong message that China's People's Liberation Army troops have not been aided by the disengagement consensus. This is the third meeting between both the Country's military delegates. Last two meetings at Corp Commanders level were held on June 6 and June 22. The meeting was held in Chushul on
the Indian side. Last two meetings were in Moldo on Chinese side. All contentious areas during the current stand-off will be discussed to stabilize the situation. China had agreed to move back in Pangong Tso but it did not. India claims Line of Actual Control at Finger 8 and Chinese are sitting between Finger 4 and Finger 5. Similar, differences exist in Depsang and Demchok areas. On June 22, the talks took place for around 11 hours between India and China military delegates. The dialogue was held in a cordial, positive and constructive atmosphere and there was a mutual consensus to disengage. Sources from the Indian Army said, "Modalities for disengagement from all friction areas in eastern Ladakh were discussed”. On June 22, the corps commanders of two countries' military met at Moldo to resolve the border issue and ease tension in Eastern Ladakh. It was the second such meeting after the first one on June 6 to defuse the tensions in Eastern Ladakh. The meeting between 14 Corps commander Lieutenant General Harinder Singh and South Xinjiang Military District chief Major General Liu Lin happened on the lines of the one they held at the Chushul-Moldo border personnel meeting (BPM) point in eastern Ladakh on June 6.
12
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
International
GOOGLE WILL PAY NEWS PUBLISHERS FOR QUALITY CONTENTS
this year”, the company said. Entire program will start with local and national publications in Germany, Australia and Brazil, with more to come soon”. In his blog post, the Vice President of product management, Brad Bender said, “This program will help participating publishers monetize their content through an enhanced storytelling experience”. Bender described it as In his blog a significant step forward in how the company post, the Vice would support high-quality journalism. All the President program's articles will be available on Google's of product management, News and Discover services. The Company Brad Bender said, will also pay for users to read pay walled “This program articles. The tech giant has been fighting the will help news industry's demands for compensation participating for years, in a battle that has taken on more publishers monetize their urgency as the coronavirus pandemic caused content through advertising revenue at publishers to collapse.
T
he world’s most popular and much sought-after search engine, Google, has said it will start paying some publishers for their news content. It will pave the way for reduced tensions between the internet search giant and the beleaguered news industry. Google is a multinational, publiclytraded organization. “The company has planned to launch a licensing program to pay publishers for ‘high-quality content’,
an enhanced storytelling experience”
France's competition regulator had in April 2020, ordered Google to pay publishers for using snippets of their content while Australia unveiled plans to make the company pay fair compensation for journalistic content siphoned from news media. Germany's Der Spiegel, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Die Zeit, Tagesspiegel and Rheinische Post, Australia's Schwartz Media, The Conversation, Private Media and Solstice Media and Brazil's Diarios Associados and A Gazeta are among the first news companies that struck deals with Google recently.
PAKISTAN STILL SERVES AS A SAFE HAVEN FOR TERROR GROUP: US
I
n the Country Report on Terrorism – 2029, the United States’ State Department has said that Pakistan continued to be a safe haven for terrorist groups.
The report points out that Pakistan continues to allow groups targeting India and those targeting Afghanistan to operate from its soil. Among the India-centric groups, the report listed Lashkar-e-Taiba(LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed(JeM) and their The latest move affiliates and front organizations. Among of the Indian the groups targeting Afghanistan it listed government move came the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani amid escalating network. The report notes that Pakistan took some modest steps in 2019 to check terror financing and to restrain some anti-India militant groups following the Pulwama terror attacks in February. However, the south Asian nation is yet to take decisive actions against India and Afghanistan-focused militants that would effectively undermine their operational capability.
tensions between India and China over the June 15 clash in Ladakh in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed in action
Though the report praises the Pakistani government for playing a 'constructive' role in the US-Taliban talks in 2019 it makes it clear that Pakistan’s progress on the most difficult aspects of its 2015 National Action Plan to counter terrorism remains unfulfilled, especially its pledge to dismantle all terrorist organizations without delay and discrimination.
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
13
Business Outlook
ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN GERMANY COULD BE POSSIBLE FROM OCTOBER
T
he COVID – 19 Pandemic have casted its major impacts on almost all sectors across the world and hence affecting the world economy at large. While, just a few have almost recovered from this misery, remaining is at the verge of recovery. And, Germany is one of them. During an exclusive interview with the German media, the Germany’s Economy Minister, Peter Altmaier, claimed that the country would recover from the depression caused by the Coronavirus Pandemic October onwards. While, talking to the BILD am Sonntag, Altmaier said, “I am sure that the downturn of our economy can be stopped after the summer break and that from October onwards, the economy can start growing again in Germany”. He added, while the economy would shrink by 6% in 2020, growth by over 5% would be possible in 2021. He said that his goal was to reach the level that employment was at before the crisis by 2022, and to start heading for regaining full employment after that date. Altmaier also said that the rate of
the spread of the virus in the United States was a major concern. He added, “A pandemic that gets out of control there, has big consequences for the world economy”. Altmaier spoke during a conference with the state secretary at the Economic Ministry, Ulrich Nussbaum, investor Dietmar Hopp, and CureVac Acting CEO Franz-Werner Haas, during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Berlin recently.
RBI’S HELP NEEDED TO MANAGE FUND DEFICIT AMID CORONA CRISIS
A
s the fiscal deficit has already touched as high as 7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Indian government has hardly any way to increase spending during the economic crisis. According to the Bloomberg report, the Government is already running out of options to fund its budget and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may need to intervene yet again with additional support. The central bank may be asked by the administration to buy sovereign bonds directly or boost dividends to help generate additional revenue.
The RBI chair professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, said demand creation can only happen if the government spends. As quoted by Sabyasachi Kar, the report reads, “it would make sense to go for some form of deficit monetization right away”. Most central banks around the world are helping their respective governments fund record fiscal stimulus packages to deal with elevated spending during the coronavirus pandemic.
Most central banks around the world are helping their respective governments fund record fiscal stimulus packages to deal with elevated spending during the coronavirus pandemic
The case has been same for emerging markets like Indonesia as well. In Indonesia, the central bank this week agreed to buy bonds worth billions of dollars directly from the government. The Bloomberg report notes that the approach by Indonesia’s central bank could be risky for developing economies, especially the risk of inflation, currency and autonomy of the central bank. The regulatory bank has so far announced several measures to help the government in tackling the economic adversities arising from the coronavirus pandemic.
The Union Government is worried, on how it will manage its record 12 lakh crore worth borrowing in the current fiscal year to March, despite RBI’s efforts.
14
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Business Outlook
FICCI’S NATIONWIDE SURVEY REVEALS POST LOCKDOWN MISERIES OF INDIAN STARTUPS
O
ver 70% of Indian startups have been impacted by the deadly Coronavirus. Besides, almost 12% of Startups across the country had to stop their operations altogether. The Investors said they have put their decisions about 33% startups on hold, while 10% have claimed that their respective funding deals with investors have been scrapped in light of the pandemic and the economic uncertainty it has triggered.
and Industry (FICCI) as part of its nationwide survey- ‘Impact of Covid-19 on Indian startups’. This survey was conducted jointly with the Indian Angel Network (IAN). Noticeably, altogether 250 startups and 61 incubators and investors participated in this nationwide survey. During the survey, FICCI found that the Covid-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on Indian businesses and more so for SMEs including Small and Medium Enterprises and startups. The figures indicate that 22 per cent of the startups in India have cash reserves to meet fixed cost expenses over the next 3-6 months.
These responses were gathered by The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce
A startling 68% of startups in India are cutting down on their operational and administrative expenses. Meanwhile, close to 30% these companies said they will have to lay off employees if the lockdown in their respective states is extended any further. Companies that are not lying off employees have had to cut salaries. As per FICCI, 43 per cent of Indian startups have already initiated salary cuts in the range of 20-40 per cent over the period of AprilJune 2020. However, the cash reserves are depleting, investments across the board seem to be dipping.
INDUSTRIALIST SAJJAN JINDAL URGES INDUSTRY TO FORGET LOSSES AFTER BAN ON CHINESE PRODUCTS
T
he Chairman and MD of JSW Group, Sajjan Jindal, has urged the industry leaders to unite and stop exports and imports with China. He said that the Indian industry would not keep making money by buying cheaper Chinese materials especially when the Indian soldiers are getting killed at the LAC by China. He
Tweeted, “The industry needs to support the Indian Government and the soldiers in the fight against China”. While Indian businesses save a significant amount of money by buying cheap products from the dragon, Sajjan Jindal highlighted that the move to boycott Chinese products will initially make businesses expensive, but in the long run, it will be beneficial for the country. The ongoing economic crisis is an opportunity to come together and push for a stronger self-reliant India and urged other industry players to support domestic producers in achieving quality and scale. While many industrialists are upset as their businesses with China is important to maintain healthy margins and continuity, the JSW Group-owner underlined that this situation has come because of the blind complacency in accepting cheaper imports from China rather than developing them in India. The JSW Cement, MD, Parth Jindal, MD said that the JSW Group had a net annual import of $400 million from China, which will be brought down to zero in the next 24 months. He also said that the unprovoked attack by the Chinese on Indian soil, on our brave jawaans has been a huge wakeup call and a clarion call for action. Besides, the JSW Group, CAIT and many MSME firms have also raised their voices against Chinese products. While private bodies have stepped up to avoid the products from China.
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
15
Opinion
COULD ‘ANTIBODY TEST’ BE A GAME CHANGER IN INDIA? By Aditya Venketesh (Columnist/Senior Blogger)
T
he month of July will see the unprecedented rise in number of COVID -19 positive cases and it will result in total chaos across the country. My assumption is that the number of positive cases will cross 10 lacs & more. As a result, it will give sleepless night to our frontline workers & will pose challenges to India’s strained medical capacity and overburdened health care system. But what changed in last one and half month, where number of corona positive cases has gone more than 5 lacs? Firstly, despite repeated calls by PM Modi and various medical experts to maintain social/physical distancing, wearing mask in public places, large sections of citizens appeared more careless rather than being more careful after the first two phases of lockdown. This lackadaisical approach of the masses is giving rise to the number of positive cases to an unrecorded high. Secondly, the ICMR’s failure to push antibody test at least, in certain areas like Mumbai, Delhi, Pune, Chennai, Bangalore where screening program of antibody test could give a new twist to the COVID The WHO directs -19 story, at least fear could and coordinates have been lesser among the international masses. If antibody test is done health within especially, in bigger cities, the the United story of COVID-19 could have Nations system. been different and it could give Working with its 194 Member more teeth to the authorities in States, WHO’s fighting this deadly virus. mission is to promote health,
conclusion is very simple, 15 lac people might have been corona positive but they did not show any symptoms. The antibody-test done in New York says that the number of positive cases may have been more than two million till the month of the march.
Let’s first know what is keep the world ‘antibody’ test? It’s so simple, The Antibody test results from safe and serve in antibody test, it says that you London, UK, estimated about the vulnerable have got COVID-19 virus but 1.6 million to be CoVID positive you did not show the symptoms. till 23rd May, but not 26,000 as Now let’s take the example of world’s few thought earlier (through RT-PCR testing). prominent cities like Moscow, New York and Death Rate now reduced from a massive, London cities, where screening program of panic-inducing 23% to just 0.3%. So, it may anti-body for COVID-19 was done in May be the story from different places if we go 2020. for screening program for antibody test. Antibody results of Moscow was released in the month of May and it showed that the official number of positive cases went up to 163000 thousands till May 15, but random screening of antibody test shows that actually, 1.6 million people have got the infection more than 10 times of the actual numbers. However, the death rate was measured about 1% till that time in Moscow but after antibody test the number was reduced to just 0.1%. The
16
Now, its almost certain that there is 10 times higher number of positive cases than what actually official is right now. Let’s take the example of Mumbai where number of positive cases till 26th June is 70990 and the cases of death is 4096. Now we assume that if random screening of antibody is done today, the number of cases could be around 700000 (just adding 10 times) and the death rate could be reduced from 3.57% to just 0.57 %. The death rate in COVID-19 cases
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Opinion
Diplomacy by its very definition and nature is designed for sugar coated compromise. It is no substitute for and is inversely proportional to hard national power
could just be like flu that may be lower than even flu if considering antibody test data. This shows the importance of anti-body test, but what the ICMR is doing in this direction is still unknown. The screening program of anti-body could help the authorities in India & help to design a better-informed measure taken to contain the epidemic. The biggest spike came from migrant’s movement, & giving rise to soaring number in smaller
cities, however, less reported. In these states, testing is being done very slowly, in maximum cases the reports of the suspected patient are coming in 14-15 days, and in those days, suspected patient is roaming freely, no surveillance of administration on them and hence spreading infection in a rapid manner. I have one example of Assam where the last number I remember of active COVID-19 positive patients were
less than 10, I realized on the basis of trend & various data that the number will come to an end in next 5-10 days, but all on sudden, the movement of migrants have started, as a result the active cases of corona positive have crossed 6000 marks. That is huge and alarming scenario in coming days. It’s happening all across the country and its going to give us scary picture of India in coming month.
Couples of things that the government can do right now, first, wearing mask should be made mandatory as in the USA, the States where masks are mandated in public have shown a 25% decrease in COVID cases. States where no face coverings were required had an 84% increase in COVID case. And secondly, the screening program of antibody test should be conducted in major cities, States where no that will lessen the fear among face coverings the masses, and government were required could make a fair amount of good had an 84% decision based on antibody test. increase in COVID case. And secondly, the screening program of antibody test should be conducted in major cities
The Antibody test could help officials discover who’s no longer at risk for developing the disease and it’s like immunity passport. The large section of society could be tagged as a safe with this immunity passport and could roam in the society without fear, however, the government has to do more in this area and research community should come forward with more credible data.
(The writer is the former Board Member, Adviser & Mentor to tech-Startup, also a strategic thinker on geo-political issues)
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
17
Opinion
TRACING THE SEED OF LOGJAM ON THE NORTHERN BORDER By Lt Gen NS Brar (Retd), (Former Chief of Staff Leh Corps)
T
he Treaty of Westphalia 24 October 1648, involving no fewer than 194 states represented by 179 plenipotentiaries negotiating over a few years established the system of political order based upon the concept of co-existing sovereign states including the inviolability of borders and non-interference in the domestic affairs of sovereign states. However, where the borders lay and resolution of conflicting claims persists till today. The earliest recorded attempt at negotiating a boundary dispute is of 1222 AD when the English and the Scots set out to mark their kingdoms. That the negotiations failed and the negotiators narrowly escaped execution is another matter. A clearly defined, accurately depicted and accepted boundary being essential for exercising sovereignty within the nation state, the process starts with mutually accepted broad contours of where the boundary should generally lie and political agreement to refine and define it. The boundary is then subjected to ‘delineation’ which essentially implies drawing on the map where the boundary runs and finally ‘demarcation’ by identifying and marking on the ground with natural features, boundary pillars and so on. Where such an exercise is not considered critical, politically or economically, and both nation states find it expedient to let the ground reality prevail, the concept of ‘frontiers’ emerges wherein both states exercise control up to a general line leaving an opaque zone or buffer ensuring avoidance of confrontation or conflict. And finally boundaries can be defined by natural features like rivers, watersheds, prominent landmarks or artificially by latitude and longitude reference. History records that four out of five conflicts were caused by disputed boundaries or violation of accepted boundaries. Adding to the grist in no small measure is the legacy of colonialism. Colonial Britain addressed boundaries and frontiers from the perspective of imperial interests and not securing lasting sovereignty for a unified India. Consequently, except where a direct threat from a neighboring power suggested demarcation so as to draw the inviolable line, the British were content to declare major stretches as frontiers; North West, North East. Or leave the process at unilateral delineation, even when acceptance was repudiated by the other; McMahon Line in the East and the Johnson, MacDonald lines in the West with Tibet/ China. While the McMahon line came near to defining the generally accepted alignment of the Indo – Tibetan boundary in the Eastern Sector, the Western Sector remained the major bone of contention with irreconcilable perceptions of where the boundary should lie. We therefore have to contend with a situation where even the first stage of a boundary settlement is nebulous. Post the First Anglo-Sikh War and under Article 4 of the Treaty of Lahore 9 March 1846, the Lahore Durbar ceded all territories between Rivers Beas and Indus to the British and Article 12 in turn rewarded Gulab Singh with ‘Independent Sovereignty” of these territories to be made over to him by a separate treaty. This was translated through Article 1 of the Treaty of Amritsar 16 March 1846. Article 4 further stipulated that the territories of Gulab Singh shall not be changed without British concurrence. The Karakoram in the north and its extension south-east was the extent of the Sikh Empire when these treaties were concluded. Johnson, an official of the Survey of India, while at Leh en route to Khotan in 1865 came up with the “advanced boundary line” of the Kashmir State without
18
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
any serious physical survey. This extended the ceded territories of the Sikh Empire eastwards to the Kun-Lun watershed encompassing Aksai Chin. It found expression in the Survey of India map of 1868 and continued to be shown as such thereafter. In 1872, Johnson joined the Maharaja’s service as Wazir of Ladakh. In 1893, Hung-Ta Chen, the Chinese official at Kashgar, handed a map showing the proposed boundary to George McCartney, the British consul-general at Kashgar. McCartney agreed with the proposal and forwarded it to the British Indian government. This showed the border along the Karakoram Mountains which was a natural boundary up to the Indus river watershed. The British presented this line, known as the McCartney-MacDonald Line, to the Chinese in 1899 through Sir Claude MacDonald, the British representative at
Opinion
Diplomacy by its very definition and nature is designed for sugar coated compromise. It is no substitute for and is inversely proportional to hard national power
Peking. The Chinese did not respond and it was taken as accepted. The boundary had more or less reverted to the extent of the ceded territories of 1846. In 1962, the People’s Liberation Army advanced up to the 1899 MacDonald Line and is generally now the Chinese claim line as was also articulated in 1959. Based on imperial British cartographic declarations boundaries in the Western Sector, India inherited and chose to persist with the whole of Aksai Chin being part of erstwhile Kashmir state integrated into India. The Chinese Highway 219, vital for linking Sinkiang and Tibet and effective control over Tibet, was constructed within their 1959 claim line. The Chinese proposals and claim lines of 1959 and 1982 emphasize this ground reality and is very unlikely to be given up. While the analysis, views and theories doing the rounds of academic circles and seminars may suggest the long term strategic purpose of Chinese actions and the threat to India, the fundamental objective is to bring around an agreement on the contours of the boundary, of course as perceived by the Chinese, so as to set the path for delineation and demarcation.
with the hope of delineation. All this is then presented as a ‘peaceful diplomatic solution’.
China today is an expansionist power with historical grievances, much like Germany in the 1930s, blatantly disregarding treaties and conventions. Such powers have always been balanced by of shifting coalition of alliances or building corresponding power to resist and address the asymmetry. Irrespective of the political dispensation in power, our national security In 1893, Hungissues are a matter of exaggeration and magnification Ta Chen, the of minor tactical actions by the ruling party and Chinese official any setback, actual or perceived is painted as a sell at Kashgar, out by the opposition leaving no scope or ground handed a for serious and pragmatic debate for resolution with map showing national interest in focus. Internal politics overrides the proposed national interest. This and the Indian Parliament 1962 boundary resolution to recover every inch of Indian Territory from to George China makes any seriously negotiated settlement very McCartney, the nearly impossible. British consulgeneral at Kashgar
Diplomacy by its very definition and nature is designed for sugar coated compromise. It is no substitute for and is inversely proportional to hard national power. Under the Sino-Indian Border Peace and Tranquility Agreement (BPTA) 1993 the two sides agreed to call the entire disputed border as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which in fact became a ‘frontier’; liable to alteration by force and
For six decades we have wished away the reality. Emotional hyper nationalism is no substitute for comprehensive national power and sober handling of national security issues. What then is the solution to this logjam? Do we have the will and wherewithal to force the issue? Can we shed the ideological baggage or impractical resolutions? If not, then perhaps a practical and honorable accommodation with China remains a pragmatic option. Zhou Enlai’s proposal of 1960 and Deng Xiaoping’s of 1982 needs serious consideration free from and above bindings. (Courtesy: Capital Khabar)
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
19
In-Depth
“Mr Bean’s Essential COVID-19 Checklist” is a reminder to people about the importance of washing hands, physical distancing and demonstrating kindness to their neighbors.
MR BEAN’S ESSENTIAL COVID-19 CHECKLIST TO MAKE PEOPLE MORE VIGILANT
A
Development Goals. “We are delighted to work with s the cases of COVID-19 continued to rise across the world, “Mr Bean’s Essential COVID-19 Checklist” is a the WHO on this Mr Bean sketch and to support health reminder to people about the importance of washing messaging around COVID-19. In 2015 193 world leaders hands, physical distancing and demonstrating kindness to their committed to 17 Global Goals to end poverty, inequality and neighbors. The PSA features a cartoon sketch of Mr Bean climate change by 2030. comically tackling a pesky roller blind to finally reveal a number of essential tips to protect people against Good Health and Wellbeing is Goal 3 and central Mr Bean, which COVID-19. to achieving all of the Global Goals. It’s key that we was originally work with creative partners - and that all sectors broadcast in “COVID-19 affects every walk of human life, and we come together to continue to get messages out the 1990s before need to use all tools and avenues at our disposal to about how we can tackle COVID-19 and build back transforming share life-saving information with all people around a better world where the Global Goals remain the into an the world. I am grateful for the support of the guiding plan to be achieved by 2030. I’m not QUITE animated series, has since team behind Mr Bean for lending your voice and sure which sector Mr Bean belongs too - but we're expanded on talents to spread vital advice on physical distancing, delighted to have him on board”, Richard Curtis a global scale hygiene and knowing the symptoms”, said Dr Tedros said. with 96 million Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the Facebook World Health Organization. The PSA is voiced by It is praiseworthy mentioning here that the World followers Mr Bean star, Rowan Atkinson, who created the Health Organization (WHO), Project Everyone and globally Mr Bean character to be "a child in a grown man's Tiger Aspect Productions have partnered to launch body" when he was at Oxford University along with a Public Service Announcement (PSA) using global filmmaker and Sustainable Development Goal advocate Richard comedy cartoon star, Mr Bean. Curtis. Mr Bean, which was originally broadcast in the 1990s before transforming into an animated series, has since expanded The WHO directs and coordinates international health within the on a global scale with 96 million Facebook followers globally and United Nations system. Working with its 194 Member States, major fanbases across India, Brazil and Indonesia. Mr Bean also WHO’s mission is to promote health, keep the world safe and celebrates his 30th anniversary in 2020. serve the vulnerable. The PSA was coordinated by Project Everyone, a not-forprofit agency devised by Richard Curtis working to put the power of communications behind the UN’s Sustainable
20
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Public Service Announcement reminds people about the importance of washing hands, physical distancing and showing kindness.
In-Depth
THIS IS HOW BIHAR BATTALION REACTED AFTER GALWAN INCIDENT
T
he 22-year-old army personnel, Sepoy Singh, was killed in hand-to-hand combat with Chinese troops in Galwan valley in eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on June 15. He was a resident of the Jandaha village under Vaishali district in Bihar. An hour earlier, the young man and his father were sitting with the army men who brought the remains. They absorbed every word of what they spoke about the final battle, etching it in their memory. In Saharsa, 160 km east of Vaishali, Nimendra Yadav, the father of Sepoy Kundan Kumar received his son’s remains and said, “My son has attained martyrdom. I have two grandsons; I will send them to the army too.” A proud man with silver hair and a self-contained look, Nimendra Yadav had a stoic air about him. Jai and Kundan were among the 20 soldiers from the 16th battalion of the Bihar Regiment killed on Monday, June 15. The other three deceased soldiers from Bihar include Havildar Sunil Kumar of Bihita, Sepoy Aman Kumar of
He surmises how the skirmish might have broken out at the frosty heights of Patrol Point 14, comparing it to footballer Zinedine Zidane's headbutt in the 2006 World Cup Final. Remember what happened. There was a melee, somebody trips somebody turns around and says something abusive. He hears the thing, turns back and head-butts. Just imagine this emotion happening to a set of people (a beefed-up patrol of 30-40 people) who have seen their father figure pushed around and injured. They would have let loose. If I was there, I would have done the same.
Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan was one such braveheart (commissioned into the regiment’s 7th Battalion)he lost his life fighting terrorists at the Taj hotel during the November 2008 Mumbai attacks
The Bihar regiment of Indian army recruits soldiers principally from Bihar, Jharkhand and some adjoining states. Its regimental centre is located in Danapur Cantonment, 16 km west of Patna, where the recruits get basic training. Raised in 1941, the regiment had won six Military Crosses before Independence. It was raised as part of a plan to extend the army's recruiting base to meet wartime manpower requirements in 1941. The regiment recruited men from Bihar and tribals from Jharkhand and adjoining states. The Bihar Regiment is known for its extraordinary sacrifices. Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan was one such braveheart (commissioned into the regiment’s 7th Battalion)he lost his life fighting terrorists at the Taj hotel during the November 2008 Mumbai attacks. The regiment counts Akhaura as one of its battle honours, when the regiment’s 10th battalion captured Akhaura in erstwhile East Pakistan in the 1971 war. The battalion was awarded three Vir Chakras, three Sena Medals, two Mention-inThe five homes of Despatches and the Theatre Bihar’s martyrsand to an extent the entire Honour for Akhaura. state—today resonate with tales of pride.
On June 20, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recalled the bravery and sacrifice of the regiment, “The country is proud of the sacrifice made by our brave soldiers in Ladakh. Today, when I’m speaking to the people of Bihar, I will talk of the valour of the Bihar Regiment— every Bihari is proud of it. I pay tribute to the brave soldiers who laid down their lives for the nation”.
Samastipur and Sepoy Chandan Kumar of Bhojpur. Among the other casualties was Colonel B. Santosh Babu, the commanding officer from Telangana. The Indian army believes at least 14 Chinese soldiers too died in the violent face-off, though Beijing has so far refused to acknowledge any casualties. The five homes of Bihar’s martyrsand to an extent the entire state—today resonate with tales of pride. The same is true in the homes of the other 15 soldiers—from 11 states—killed in the face-off. It’s also a reflection of the army policy of having mixed ethnicities even in regiments named after regions (a colonial legacy). Military veteran Brigadier Sanal Kumar (retired), who commanded 12 BIHAR from 2002-05, recalls the “boys from Bihar” as extremely brave, no less boisterous than others, with a warm cross-cultural camaraderie.
On the other hands, Brigadier Sanal describes a deliberate British ploy to stop recruiting Biharis or the ‘purbia’ after the 1857 war of Independence. The Biharis and the UPites, who were in the East India Company military as the Bengal Native Infantry, were all followers of Mangal Pandey. All were the people who actually coordinated India’s first war of independence”. That emotion was reflected in a video the Army tweeted to pay tribute to the regiment. The nearly two-minute video describes the infantry regiment’s journey from 1857 to 1999.
August 2020
(Courtesy: IndiaToday)
OBSERVER DAWN
21
In-Depth
AFRICA’S DRC WITNESSES THE END OF 10TH EBOLA OUTBREAK
W
hen we talk about Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), this is the end of the 10th outbreak of Ebola virus disease. This long, complex and difficult outbreak has been overcome due to the leadership and commitment of the Government of the DRC, supported by the World Health Organization (WHO), a multitude of partners, donors, and above all, the efforts of the communities affected by the virus. WHO congratulates all those involved in the arduous and often dangerous work required to end the outbreak, but stresses the need for vigilance. Continuing to support survivors and maintaining strong surveillance and response systems in order to contain potential flare-ups is critical in the months to come. The WHO Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said, “The outbreak took so much from all of us, especially from the people of DRC, but we came out of it with valuable lessons, and valuable tools. The world is now better-equipped to respond to Ebola. A vaccine has been licensed, and effective treatments identified”. Ultimately, the best defence against any outbreak is investing in a stronger health system as the foundation for universal health coverage.
Work will continue to build on the gains made in this response to address other health challenges, including measles and COVID-19. The WHO Regional Director for Africa, Dr Matshidiso Moeti said, “During the almost two years we fought the Ebola virus, WHO and partners helped strengthen the capacity of The WHO local health authorities to manage outbreaks”. The Director-General, DRC is now better, smarter and faster at responding to Dr Tedros Ebola and this is an enduring legacy which is supporting Adhanom the response to COVID-19 and other outbreaks. Ghebreyesus, said, “The As countries around the world face the COVID-19 outbreak took so pandemic, the DRC Ebola response provides valuable much from all lessons. of us, especially from the people of DRC, but we came out of it with valuable lessons, and valuable tools
The outbreak, declared in North Kivu on 1 August 2018, was the second largest in the world, and was particularly challenging as it took place an active conflict zone. There were 3470 cases, 2287 deaths and 1171 survivors. Led by the DRC Government and the Ministry of Health and supported by WHO and partners, the more than 22-month-long response involved training thousands of health workers, registering 250 000 contacts, testing 220 000 samples, providing patients with equitable access to advanced therapeutics, vaccinating over 303 000 people with the highly effective rVSV-ZEBOV-GP vaccine, and offering care for all survivors after their recovery.
22
The response was bolstered by the engagement and leadership of the affected communities. Thanks to their efforts, this outbreak did not spread globally. More than 16 000 local frontline responders worked alongside the more than 1500 people deployed by WHO. Support from donors was essential, as was the work of UN partner agencies, national and international NGOs, research networks, and partners deployed through the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network. Hard work to build up preparedness capacities in neighboring countries also limited the risk of the outbreak expanding.
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Many of the public health measures that have been successful in stopping Ebola are the same measures that are now essential for stopping COVID-19: finding, isolating, testing, and caring for every case and relentless contact tracing.
In DRC, community workers were provided with training and a Smartphone data collection app that enabled them to track contacts and report in real time rather than fill in laborious paper reports. Even when violence locked down cities, the community workers, many of them local women, continued to track and trace contacts using the application, something that was crucial for ending this outbreak. While this 10th outbreak in DRC has ended, the fight against Ebola continues. On 1 June 2020, seven cases of Ebola were reported in Mbandaka city and neighbouring Bikoro Health Zone in Equateur Province and an 11th outbreak was declared. The WHO is supporting the government-led response with more than 50 staff already deployed and more than 5000 vaccinations already administered.
In-Depth
WASHINGTON APEX COURT DENIES BLOCKING FEDERAL EXECUTION OF FOUR
T
he Washington Supreme Court rejected an appeal of all four inmates, who were convicted of killing children. The judicial authorities comprising Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor noted that they would have blocked the executions from going forward. And hence, the court’s action has left no obstacles standing in the way of the executions, the first of which is scheduled for July 13. The inmates are separately asking a federal judge in Washington to impose a new delay on their executions over other legal issues that have yet to be resolved. The activity at the high court came after Attorney General William Barr directed the federal Bureau of Prisons to schedule the executions
who kidnapped a 10-year-old girl who was rollerblading in front of The activity at the high court came after Attorney General William her Kansas home and raped her in a forest behind a church before Barr directed the federal Bureau of Prisons to schedule the strangling the young girl with a wire. Three of the executions — for executions. Three of the men had been scheduled to be put to Lee, Purkley and Honken — are scheduled days apart death when Barr first announced the federal government beginning July 13. Nelson’s execution is scheduled would resume executions last year, ending an informal The federal for Aug. 28. The Justice Department said additional moratorium on federal capital punishment as the issue prison in executions will be set at a later date. receded from the public domain. The Attorney General, Indiana where in a statement said, “The American people, acting the executions Ruth Friedman, an attorney for Lee, decried the federal through Congress and Presidents of both political parties, would take place, USP death penalty as “arbitrary, racially-biased, and rife have long instructed that defendants convicted of the Terre Haute, with poor lawyering and junk science”. Despite these most heinous crimes should be subject to a sentence has struggled problems, and even as people across the country are of death”. to combat the demanding that leaders rethink crime, punishment, coronavirus and justice, the government is barreling ahead with The four murderers whose executions are scheduled pandemic behind bars. One its plans to carry out the first federal executions in 17 today have received full and fair proceedings under our inmate there years. Given the unfairness built into the federal death Constitution and laws. We owe it to the victims of these has died from penalty system and the many unanswered questions horrific crimes, and to the families left behind, to carry COVID-19 about both the cases of the men scheduled to die and forward the sentence imposed by our justice system. the government’s new execution protocol, there must The federal government’s initial effort was put on hold be appropriate court review before the government can proceed by a trial judge after the inmates challenged the new execution with any execution. procedures, and the federal appeals court in Washington and the Supreme Court both declined to step in late last year. But in April, The lawyers argue that Purkey does not understand why the the appeals court threw out the judge’s order. government plans to execute him and that he believes it is The federal prison in Indiana where the executions would take place, retaliation for many complaints about conditions in the federal USP Terre Haute, has struggled to combat the coronavirus pandemic prison system. Executions on the federal level have been rare behind bars. One inmate there has died from COVID-19. The and the government has put to death only three defendants since inmates scheduled for execution are: Danny Lee, who was convicted restoring the federal death penalty in 1988 — most recently in in Arkansas of killing a family of three, including an 8-year-old; Wesley 2003, when Louis Jones was executed for the 1995 kidnapping, rape Ira Purkey, of Kansas, who raped and murdered a 16-year-old girl and murder of a young female soldier. As per the order the and killed an 80-year-old woman; Dustin Lee Honken, who killed five executions would mark the first use of the death penalty on the people in Iowa, including two children; and Keith Dwayne Nelson, federal level since 2003.
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
23
Cover Story
SINO-INDIA BILATERAL RELATIONS A POLITICAL TREE By Pravin Kumar Mishra
Soon after the People's Republic of China (PRC) was established on October 1, 1949, India was the first non-communist country to establish an Embassy in PRC. On April 1, 1950, India and China established diplomatic relations. Both the nations also jointly expounded the Panchsheel (Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence) in 1954. Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai visited India in June 1954 and Prime Minister Nehru visited China in October 1954. Premier Zhou Enlai again visited India in January 1957 and in April 1960.
24
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Cover Story
The Indian PM, Rajiv Gandhi, visited China in December 1988. During this visit, both sides agreed to develop and expand bilateral relations in all fields.
B
ut in 1962, the India-China conflict led to a serious setback in bilateral relations. India and China restored ambassadorial relations in August 1976. Higher political level contacts were revived by the visit of the then External Affairs Minister, A.B. Vajpayee in February 1979. The Chinese Foreign Minister Huang Hua paid a return visit to India in June, 1981. The Indian PM, Rajiv Gandhi, After the nuclear visited China in December tests in May 1998, 1988. During this visit, both the relations faced a minor setback. sides agreed to develop and External Affairs expand bilateral relations Minister, Jaswant four agreements signed in all fields. It was also Singh, visited during his visit included agreed to establish a Joint China in June 1999 the one on CBMs in the Working Group (JWG) and both sides reiterated Military Field along the to seek fair, reasonable and LAC covering adoption of mutually acceptable solution concrete measures between the on the boundary question - and a two militaries to enhance exchanges and Joint Economic Group (JEG). From the to promote cooperation and trust. Chinese side, Premier Li Peng visited India in December 1991. Prime Minister After the nuclear tests in May 1998, the Narasimha Rao visited China in September relations faced a minor setback. External 1993. The Agreement on the Maintenance Affairs Minister, Jaswant Singh, visited China of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of in June 1999 and both sides reiterated that Actual Control (LAC) in the India - China neither country is a threat to the other. Border Area was signed during this visit, President K.R. Narayanan’s visit to China providing for both sides to respect the in May - June 2000 marked a return to high status quo on the border, clarify the LAC level exchanges. Premier Zhu Rongji visited where there are doubts and undertake India in January 2002. In June 2003, Prime CBMs. President R. Venkataraman paid a Minister A.B. Vajpayee visited China when a state visit to China in May 1992. This was Declaration on Principles for Relations and the first Head of State-level visit from India Comprehensive Cooperation was signed. It to China. President Jiang Zemin's state visit was the first comprehensive document on to India in November 1996 was similarly the development of bilateral relations signed first by a PRC Head of State to India. The
August 2020
at the highest level between India and China. India and China concluded a border trade protocol to add a border crossing between Sikkim and Tibet Autonomous Region. The two Prime Ministers appointed Special Representatives to explore from the political perspective of the overall bilateral relationship the framework of a boundary settlement. Premier Wen Jiabao visited India in April 2005. However, a Joint Statement was signed by Premier Wen and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh. During the visit, the two sides issued a Joint Statement establishing a Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity. It reflects the consensus that bilateral relations transcend bilateral issues and have acquired a global and strategic perspective. The agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles signed during the visit represents successful conclusion of the first phase of
OBSERVER DAWN
25
Cover Story
India and China officially resumed trade in 1978
the work of the Special Representatives on the boundary question. Chinese President Hu Jintao visited India in November 2006. During the visit, the two sides issued a Joint Declaration containing a ten-pronged strategy to intensify cooperation in all areas and to give greater content to India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership. President of the Indian National Congress and Chairperson of the United Progressive Alliance Smt. Sonia Gandhi visited China at the invitation of the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) President Hu Jintao on 25-29 October 2007. She met with President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao besides other leaders of the CPC. She paid another visit to China in August 2008 at the invitation of the Communist Party of China to witness the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games and met, among
others, PRC Vice President Xi Jinping. Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh visited China on 13-15 January 2008. During the visit, he had extensive discussions with Premier Wen Jiabao and met with President Hu Jintao and NPC Chairman Wu Bangguo. A joint document entitled "A Shared Vision for the 21st Century of the Republic of India and the People's Republic of China" was issued during the visit, outlining common positions on a number of international and some bilateral issues. Prime Minister also addressed a high-level business event and delivered a speech at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Prime Minister visited China again in October 2008 to participate in the 7th Asia-Europe Summit held in Beijing on 24-25 October. Consequently, the President of India paid a state-visit to China from 26-31 May, 2010. In Beijing, she
BUSINESS RELATIONS
I
ndia and China officially resumed trade in 1978. In 1984, the two sides signed the Most Favoured Nation Agreement. India-China bilateral trade which was as low as US$ 2.92 billion in 2000 reached US$ 61.7 billion in 2010, making China India’s largest goods trading partner. In 2008, bilateral trade stood at US$ 51.8 billion and China became India’s largest goods trading partner, replacing the United States of America. By the end of 2009, as a result of the world economic downturn, bilateral trade dropped to US$ 43.27 billion. India exported
However, in 2010 bilateral trade reached US$ 61.74 billion, a growth of 43% compared to the same period last year. India exported goods worth US$ 20.86 billion (+52%) to China and imported goods worth US$ 40.88 billion (+38%) from China, resulting in an adverse balance of trade of US$ 20 billion. In the first 8 months of 2011, India-China bilateral trade reached
26
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
goods worth US$ 20.86 billion (+52%) to China and imported goods worth US$ 40.88 billion (+38%) from China, resulting in an adverse balance of trade of US$ 20 billion
held talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao and met with NPC Chairman Wu Bangguo, Premier Wen Jiabao and CPPCC Chairman Jia Qinglin. The Indian President, along with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, attended the reception to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations jointly organized by CPAFFC and the Embassy of India. She visited Luoyang to inaugurate the Indian style Buddhist Temple which was dedicated as a gift from India to the people of China. In Shanghai, she visited the Indian pavilion and the Chinese pavilion at the Shanghai EXPO and also had a meeting with Shanghai Party Secretary, Yu Zhengsheng. A Tagore bust was also inaugurated by the Indian President. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao paid a three day official visit to India from 15-17
Cover Story ILD exchange and Distinguished Visitors December 2010. During his visit, Premier Program of MEA. One of the highlight of the Wen met with President Smt. Pratibha Patil, PM Shri Manmohan Singh, Vice President “Year of Exchanges” was the visit of a youth Shri Hamid Ansari, UPA Chairperson delegation to China, which was increased Smt. Sonia Gandhi and the Leader of from 100 to 500. Premier Wen Jiabao met Opposition Smt. Sushma Swaraj. Premier and addressed the Indian youth. Several Wen also interacted with children in the Ministerial/Official visits to China were Tagore International School; addressed made to participate in BRICS activities. For India-China business cooperation summit; the first time, India-China Consultations on delivered a lecture at the Indian Council UNSC issues was held in March. Leaders of of World Affairs; and attended the closing the two countries have maintained regular ceremony of the Festival of China in India contacts and have met frequently during along with PM. Six agreements on cultural exchange, green technologies, media In 2008, Prime Minister met President Hu exchanges, hydrological data, and banking Jintao at the G-8 Summit in Hokkaido, were signed and a Joint Communiqué was Japan in July, on the sidelines of released. During the visit, a bilateral the ASEM Summit in Beijing trade target of 100 billion In 2008, in October. Both leaders USD was set to be reached Prime Minister met President met again on the sidelines by 2015. A Strategic Hu Jintao at the of the SCO Summit in Economic Dialogue and G-8 Summit in Yekaterinburg in June a CEO Forum were Hokkaido, Japan 2009. Indian PM also met established; and 2011 in July, on the Premier Wen Jiabao on was declared as ‘Year of sidelines of the ASEM Summit in the sidelines of the UNGA India-China exchange’. Beijing in October in New York in September The establishment of hotline 2008 and on the sidelines of between the Indian PM and the the EAS in Hua Hin, Thailand Chinese Premier, a mechanism of in October 2009. They also met on annual Foreign Ministers Meeting and the sidelines of the Copenhagen Summit in a regular high level exchange mechanism December 2009. In 2010, Prime Minister were also announced. met with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the sidelines of the BRIC summit in Brasilia The year 2011 saw a series of exchanges in April. Again Prime Minister met with in diverse fields. PM Shri Manmohan Singh Premier Wen Jiabao on the sidelines of visited Sanya from April 12-15 to participate the EAS in Hanoi in October 2010. PM in the BRICS Summit. On the sidelines, PM had a bilateral meeting with Premier Wen also had a bilateral meeting with Chinese Jiabao on the sidelines of the EAS in Bali in President Hu Jintao. Chief Ministers of November 2011. Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat visited China in June, September and November 2008. The Chinese Foreign Minister Yang respectively. Similarly Chairman of Xinjiang Jiechi paid a return 7-9 September. The Autonomous Region and Party Secretary of foreign ministers of the two countries met Gansu also visited India as part of the MEA-
in Phuket in July 2009 at the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional forum meeting. It was EAM, S.M. Krishna's first meeting with the Chinese FM. The Trilateral Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held in Bangalore on 27th October 2009. The Chinese FM also had a separate bilateral meeting with EAM. Krishna again visited China from 5-8 April 2010. He held talks with the Chinese FM and met with Premier Wen Jiabao. During the visit, EAM launched the Festival of India in China and also attended a reception to mark the 60th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations. Exchanges at the government levels, Parliamentary and Party exchanges have also expanded. Speaker of the Lok Sabha Shivraj Patil visited China in 1993, following which NPC Chairman Qiao Shi visited India in 1995. NPC Chairman Li Peng and Speaker of the Lok Sabha Manohar Joshi paid visits to each other in 2001 and 2003 respectively. Hon'ble Speaker of the Lok Sabha Somnath Chatterjee led an Indian Parliamentary Delegation to China in July 2006 during which both sides signed an MOU to further strengthen the friendly relations and cooperation between the parliaments. There is a close and regular interaction between strategic and foreign policy thinktanks. These exchanges continued to be strengthened during 2011. CICIR has regular interactions with IDSA and ICS. The third Track-II dialogue between China Reform Forum and Aspen India was held in March 2011. USI has exchanges with China Institute for International Strategic Studies and ICWA has interactions with CPIFA. Dialogues are now being initiated between pairs of India- China academic organizations.
US$ 48.17 billion (+19.47% over the same period last year). India’s total exports to China for this period were US$ 15.68 billion (+7.37%) and China’s exports to India reached US$ 32.49 billion (+26.33%). The trade deficit for the first 8 months has already reached US$ 16.8 billion. Institutional Framework of Bilateral Cooperation. There are several institutional mechanisms for India’s economic and commercial engagement with China. India-China Joint Economic Group on Economic Relations and Trade, Science and Technology (JEG) is a ministerial-level dialogue mechanism established in 1988 during the visit of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to China. A Joint Study Group (JSG) was set up after former Prime Minister Vajpayee’s visit to China in June 2003 to examine the potential complementarities between the two countries in expanded trade and economic cooperation. However, Joint Task Force (JTF) was set up to study the feasibility of an IndiaChina Regional Trading Arrangement. JTF Report was completed in October 2007. There are also Joint Working Groups on Trade, Agriculture and Energy. In Dec 2010, both countries agreed to set up the India-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (SED).
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
27
Cover Story
SINO-INDIA FLARE-UP AT LAC, SIGNIFICANCE OF
‘GAME OF GO’ By Aditya Venketesh The writer is former board member, advisor & mentor to tech start-up, writer & strategic thinker on geopolitical issues
T
o India-China standoff, is it a flare-up real or is it merely a psycho-warfare to judge India's preparedness in defense? The experts believe that it would be too early to ascertain anything on Indo-China relations and nothing seems win-win either for India or China. Recent violent flare-up at the LAC looks more like escalation of tactical psycho ware-fare than an indication of a full-fledged war between the two giant nations of the world. In psycho warfare – there are two important ingredients, planned use of propaganda and psychological operation to influence the opinion, emotions, attitudes and behavior of the opponents. And, China has consistently been doing the same copycat strategy to gain edge on India. They have used their controlled media to spread malign or subversive social media campaign against India, and subsequently, the rise of digital media has given it more propellant in vitiating the atmosphere. The problem with this campaign is, that some elements in India have fallen prey to this psycho warfare jugglery and this made the task of prime minister Narendra Modi to deal with China on various front more complicated. India's inability to deal with such malign and subversive social media campaign is mainly because it has less research and analytics program to detect such social media threat unlike USA. India’s military, which is considered highly professional and efficient on the world platform, somehow lacks teeth in dealing with such a complex level of psychowarfare. What happened in Galwan valley and Pangong tso on May 22, 2020, was nothing but a provocation to test the water by the Chinese and display their ‘Military Warfare & Diplomacy Doctrine’. Indian army was well within its right to give a befitting reply to this aggression of PLA. However, CCP's social media engineering department used the same tactics to influence the opinion of people of India through their tacitly covert method using their hidden assets in Galwan valley India who collaborated with CCP's agenda and willy-nilly and Pangong tso participated in their vilification campaign that PLA has on May 22, 2020, encroached land at LAC on PP14 and as a result, it was nothing but a drew a lot of criticism to the Indian government. provocation to test The provocation did not stop even after it turned a the water by the Chinese and display violent faceoff on 15th of June, resulting into huge their ‘Military casualties in both sides. Chinese side causalities were Warfare much higher than their Indian counterparts. According & Diplomacy to the media reports, total casualties of Chinese military Doctrine’ are more than 60, thought it is yet to be confirmed by
28
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Cover Story
Chinese are building hospital and other supporting infrastructure near Pangong tso may be an indication of long term conflict after Galwan
the Chinese authorities. The entire incident, the whole unfolding of events was a surprise for Chinese PLA as they did not expect such fierce retaliations in Galwan valley from Indian military.
Speaking about the recent violent skirmishes between the militaries of the two giant countries at Galwan valley, Dr Amit Singh, the Assistant Prof, Delhi University, who is an expert on Sino-Indian affairs, believes that China will still stick to its old format of two-steps forward and one-step backward. He also expressed his apprehensions on the news coming from various sources that Chinese are building hospital and other supporting infrastructure near Pangong tso may be an indication of long term conflict after Galwan. To understand the entire gamut of affairs which has been unfolding like a thriller, one needs to understand as what provoked china, it’s not one or two issues but combination of issues that led such a provocation to China. India’s unprecedented shift in its policy led by PM Modi-led BJP to deal China's emergence as an expansionist force in South-East Asia, hegemonic presence in south china sea and its continued aggression at the border areas, all this needs to be seen in a most comprehensive manner with an incisive approach to understand China's ‘Art of War’ which, they have been unleashing ruthlessly in their policy doctrine. To defeat China’s devious design comprehensively, understanding the key concept of Chinese, ‘Art of War’ through the game of Go will provide more teeth & perspective, and secondly, it’s significant to know as what provoked China that resulted in highly violent conflict at Galwan valley. Reports coming from various sources suggest that tension between these two major powers in Asia may change the global equation.
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
29
Cover Story
INDIA’S STRATEGIC RESET
A
major reason, according to the strategic experts, is the policy of strategic reset by the Modi Government that put China on tenterhook. Besides, it may be linked to India's strong and unprecedented move to repeal Article 370 of the Indian constitution that guaranteed a measure of autonomy to the erstwhile Jammu and Kashmir state, which also included portions of Ladakh region. However, it was India’s internal decision to amend article 370 as this article was a temporary provision in the constitution and India was well within its right to dump it anytime. However, political uproar was very much expected on this issue and so it fanned out. This calculated move of PM Modi was called a master stroke in resolving the pending issues in J&K and restore peace and tranquility in the state. But India's two rival neighbors, China and Pakistan took it differently as they saw India's this masterstroke as unilaterally impacting its territory and more so India’s strong resolve was seen as hegemonic move, strongly criticized by China at the UN Security Council last year. But the kind of knee jerk reaction came from China tells the story that it was well calculative measure and strategic checkmate and India's counter containment approach towards China started to show the symptom of flare up at LAC and also stirred up diplomatic strain between two major competitors in the Asian region.
Policy of strategic reset by the Modi Government that put China on tenterhook.
30
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Cover Story
tensions flared up after India recently illegally constructed defense facilities across the border into Chinese territory in the Galwan Valley region, and Chinese border defense troops countered it. PM Modi's approach and dealing China's aggressive march in south east Asia and particularly India was very much in his mind and just after taking the reins of power at the center, he started to implement his agenda while keeping so much focus on infra development at the border areas and upgrading military might with many key decisions at the cabinet. In 2015-16,several critical decisions were taken to embolden military, Navy and Air-force, one of the major decisions was allocation of 32000 crore to boost naval infrastructure by acquiring 12 critically required warship that can detect, track & kill the enemy in water and to match China’s overall ambition in South China sea.
One of the major shift in India's position traced back to their resolve to put India as was on PoK & Aksai Chin as the kind of the “Vishwa guru” on global front and not surprise statement was issued by the Home to concede anything, which is historically Minister, Amit Shah, in August 2019, in and geographically outlined in the various the parliament and this sent a complete books after taking over power at center strategic shift of India's position by PM Modi-led BJP Government vis-a-vis Aksai Chin. The Home in 2014. The acceleration Minister described Aksai of Indian infrastructure PM Modi Visited Chin as “occupied” and put development at LAC after Wuhan in 2018 special emphasis that “we the taking over the reins and reciprocation was made by will sacrifice our lives for of power in 2014 by the the president, it.” This bold statement by Modi Government was Xi Jinping, the Indian HM has rightly smart & calculated move with its visit to hit the concept of China's to bridge substantial Mamallapuram sovereignty philosophy and strategic deficit with in 2019 alerted them that India could China and China sensed go far from their existing stated it quite early and started to position on Aksai Chin and only put counter-offensive via boarder after that galvanization of PLA in western conflict on various occasion since 2013-14. sector received more impetus. India’s statement regarding Aksai Chin was not The Chinese mouthpiece, Global Times made in haste. Its background could be aptly explains this: “China-India border
August 2020
The speedy development process of 2000 km critical road project along the Mcmohan line from Mago-ThingbuTawang to Vijaynagar from Changlong district and approval of 1000 km most complicated rail project in Arunachal Pradesh and India’s inauguration of the 255km (158mile) Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) road, built along the LAC, last year kicked off a controversy and made China anxious, they quickly raised alarm but India continued with its key project development near the border area. Amidst diplomatic standoff, India kept Chinese busy with its key bilateral move directly engaging XI Xinping. PM Modi Visited Wuhan in 2018 and reciprocation was made by the president, Xi Jinping, with its visit to Mamallapuram in 2019. Alongside Japan and the United States, India has been highly critical of BRI as “debt-trap diplomacy,” particularly after Sri Lanka handed over a deep-sea port to China for 99 years after being unable to pay its loans back The refusal of India to participate in BRI offered by China in 2018 was one of key discordant note between two giants in south east Asia, however, China downplayed it and tried to rope in Indian side with key critical changes and reassurances that CPEC will not hurt the sovereignty of India. But it did not cut much ice and Indian continued to play a part of principal opposition as far as BRI is concerned and raised its territorial integrity issue on CPEC.
OBSERVER DAWN
31
Cover Story
CHINESE WAY OF WAR & DIPLOMACY THROUGH THE GAME OF 'GO'
T
o understand the enemy is to understand their strategy and prepare oneself for any faceoff, the more you know your enemy, the better you can fight with them. Many have also studied Sun Tzu's Art of War and can recite the Chinese master strategist’s famous saying: “Know the enemy and know yourself, in a hundred battles you will never be in peril”. However, few really understand the essence of the difference. One might have heard the famous Chinese board game, 'Go’. Go board game is a living reflection of Chinese philosophy, culture, strategic thinking, warfare, military tactics, and diplomatic bargaining. To understand the philosophy of Chinese military & diplomatic doctrine, this game will help in unfolding the many facets of China's mindset as how it conducts his behavior on international platform and will provide the insight in understanding the essence of the Chinese way of war and diplomacy. The original Chinese name of this game is called weiqi (pronounced weich'i); literally, encircling territory, an essential component of a nation state. Two players compete for territories. The game board is conceived to be the earth. The board is square, representing stability. The four corners represent the four seasons, indicating the cyclical change of time. The game pieces, the stones are round, hence mobile. The spread of stones on the board reflect activities on earth. The shape of the stone
32
to fulfill Den Xiaoping’s ambition of making China a global player. He now can expand its territorial limit and spread it worldwide and win over the opponents through his diplomatic & economic supremacy. Before moving to the core concept, one must understand the use 'of Shi'. Indeed, Shi is such an important concept that Sun Tzu, the Chinese grand master of military strategy, uses it for the title of a chapter in his Art of War, the world’s oldest military Here it is very significant to understand treasure. The Shi is ‘the alignment the essence of “Shi’ as it lays of forces’, the ‘propensity of the cornerstone of China’s “Know the things’, or the ‘potential strategy & stratagem. The enemy and born of disposition’, Its BRI project of China know yourself, better simplified as reflects the essence of in a hundred ‘energy & momentum’ this game, they derive its battles you will or “extraordinary ways major perspective from never be in peril”. However, few of implementing military ‘Go’ and thus it largely really understand & diplomatic warfare” hinges on the principles the essence of the and its variable. The Shi is of expansionism as Chinese difference key component in Chinese wants to cover more space diplomacy & warfare. The better in the Go board to win over his those utilizes the Shi in the war of enemy. The one, who acquires more strategy & stratagem will win, as Sun tzu wins, covers the larger territory. Initial fifty sums it up. In 1962 Sino-Indian war, Shi moves in the Go game is to prepare and was in favor of China, they utilized it well make strategy with fineness so that you and gave India a fair amount loss. Its wellcan unleash hell on the opponents. Like established fact that in 1962 war with China, this, in 1978, Den Xiaoping has started Prime Minister Nehru was in Sri Lanka economic reforms and set an agenda to and its Defense Minister was on travel to achieve super power level in next 100 years US attending UN general assembly but span of time, so from 1978-2012,China deliberately delayed his trip so alignment has structured and prepared itself the way of forces was scattered in absence of Shi players prepared itself in first fifty move in (Here Shi defines the coordination between the game of Go. From 2013 onwards when top leadership within the government and the BRI project started, the rolling stone of their synergy with military), i.e. alignment Shi took the momentum as President XI of forces, China took the advantage as Shi Xiping Initiated an extraordinary journey engagements on the board is like the flow of water, an echo in Sun Tzu’s view that the positioning of troops be likened to water: “as water varies its flow according to the fall of the land, a military varies its method of gaining victory according to the enemy situations”. Sun Tzu also uses stones to describe military affairs: rolling boulders create ‘Shi’.
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Cover Story with high-tech equipment’s &war logistics , chu-qi zhi-sheng (win through unexpected moves), the fierce attack on Indian patrol at Galwan valley was exact form of chu kizhiseng move, however, Indian side proved that Shi was in their favor, they averted this violent move of enemy and inflicted heavy causalities on Chinese side & this clearly sent a shock wave to Chinese and forced them back on rethinking as what went wrong, yin-di zhi-sheng (gain victory by varying one’s strategy and tactics according to the enemy’s situation), this led to temporary truce at LAC and negotiation is still on for disengagement as I am writing, it would be very hard negotiation & long drawn process between two sides, yirouke-gang (use the soft and gentle to overcome the hard and strong), strategy was used by the Chinese in current flare up, statement coming from Beijing for truce and economic engagement clearly reflects this move of Chinese & bolster their drive in sticking to the neck, bishi ji-xu (stay clear of the enemy’s main force and strike at his weak point) keeping vigil on this move of Chinese may alter the situation at the border. It’s time for India to keep extraordinary watch on any Chinese move particularly at the Mcmohan line and India should improve cyber defense strategy to counter any imminent attack on Indian strategic facilities, yi-yuwei-zhi (to make the devious route the most direct) Galwan valley flare up was most direct & devious, hou-fa zhiren (fight back and gain the upper hand only after the enemy has initiated fighting), It’s China’s only missing thread in their strategy, sheng-dong ji-xi (make a feint to the east but attack in the west)That’s exactly, why India should be on high alert on two places?
was very much there in its strategy. Shi has no constant shape, it’s like water, there is nothing softer and weaker than water, yet nothing is more penetrating and capable of attacking the hard and strong. The flow of water, carrying with it the Shi, can wash away anything standing in its way. Thus, Chinese keep no illusion with their strategy, they are flexible, sometime hard and sometime devastating like heavy flash of flood. Chinese are particularly comfortable with viewing war and diplomacy in comprehensive and dialectic ways and acting accordingly. There are some proverbial components that need to be carefully studied to deal with Chinese tactics in the war of diplomacy. The most notable ones are bingyizha li (war is based on deception), It was occasionally used by Chinese PLA along the border, Doklam conflict was one of the
Galwan will not happen immediately at LAC and Mcmohan line, It will happen somewhere else. There is now possibility of cyber war bingyizha li move, but it was aptly India to keep where India’s strength is countered by Indian side with extraordinary still untested & Chinese equal force of Shi-shangwatch on any Chinese would try to hit India in bing fa-mou (supreme move particularly at virtual platform and make importance in war is the Mcmohan line up the losses that they to attack the enemy ’s and India should improve cyber recently suffered through strategy) Chinese employ defense strategy digital strike announced this technique frequently to counter any by Prime Minister Modi. so as to disappoint their imminent attack Nonetheless, all of these adversary, they simply used special Chinese four-character this in escalating border dispute proverbs are strategic and dialectic frequently to deter Indian infra in nature. All bear some character of development in border areas and also by flowing water. It’s highly significant to creating controversy all arms deals (Rafale, understand the Chinese philosophy of war Scorpene deal breach by using its proxy), & diplomacy to penetrate their psyche and qi-zhengxiang-sheng (mutual reproduction prepare a holistic defense to deter their of regular and extraordinary forces and strategic thought process which is built on tactics), this is the area where Chinese the principle of Go game and mastered by focused so much in creating the wall of Sun Tzu ‘s well-crafted theory of military defense through research & innovation in warfare & diplomacy. science & technology, enabling its military
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
33
Defence
INDIA’S PLAN FOR ‘BOEING’ APPEARS MORE RELEVANT THAN IT WAS By Shive Aroor
A
lthough, India is yet define the kind of fighter it wants in an ongoing contest for 114 jets, Boeing’s plans appear to have become more well-defined than before. Now, there are multiple indicators to suggest that Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet Block III jet is now primarily pointed at the Indian Navy, while the F-15EX is shaping up to be Boeing’s protagonist in the Indian Air Force requirement. It has come into light that Boeing will shortly receive a requested license to formally market the F-15EX to the Indian Air Force, with an announcement possibly imminent. In February 2020, it was first revealed that Boeing planned to add the F-15EX to an Indian Air Force campaign that had thus far only involved the F/A-18 Super Hornet. While the F/A-18 will theoretically remain available to the Indian Air Force, it is becoming clear that Super Hornet energies are being pointed far more prominently at the Indian Navy, making what appears to be space for a more prominent positioning of the F-15EX for the IAF.
34
Kanaglekar, Head of India Fighter Sales at It must be cleared that the Indian Air Boeing Defense. Speaking about the F-15’s Force is yet to define its requirements and expanding role in the campaign, Kanagalekar potentially has on its hands a contest where said, “A lot of years have passed, the it must choose between jets as disparate technology has improved, the geopolitics as the F-15 and Su-35 at one end and the has changed. I would rather Gripen E and F-21 at the other. wait to see the requirements India’s decision last week to The invocation before commenting on plans proceed with plans to acquire of geopolitics on the air force side”. more of its existing jet types by Boeing’s — 12 more Su-30MKI and 21 India fighter campaigns head The invocation of geopolitics by MiG-29UPG jets — has stirred is significant, Boeing’s India fighter campaigns a debate over whether priority especially since head is significant, especially urgency needs to be applied it comes at a since it comes at a time when instead on the 114 Make in time when USUS-India relations have made India jet program. India relations major strides forward in an have made atmosphere of tensions with “I wouldn’t hypothesize about major strides forward in an China. Two US Navy carrier the requirements, but the atmosphere of battle groups have entered reason we’ve applied for a tensions with the western Pacific in recent license for the F-15EX is so China days, with open saber rattling that we can offer an entire between both sides. There spectrum of capabilities. And is a plenty happening in India too, and depending on how the requirements not just on its border with China. As per get panned out, we are comfortable and the assessment the F-15EX will be much confident. Now it is still too early to say if it more prominently projected by Boeing as will be a single or twin engine,” said Ankur
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Defence The Indian Air Force and Indian Navy have two very distinct requirements
Kanaglekar said, “There will be more opportunities very soon to hear more about the F-15EX program, but won’t be able to share very much owing to the stage of the process. The US Air Force is interfacing with the Indian Air Force on that”. The emphasis of the F/A-18 Super Hornet for the Indian Navy’s 57 jet contest is visible too. Boeing art, including the image that headlines this piece, all specifically show the Super Hornet in Indian Navy colours. But the emphasis goes way beyond graphics. On the naval front too, the F/A-18 faces a fight against the Rafale, though Boeing believes the geopolitical/ technological ecosystem and scale that comes with the Super Hornet make it a contender even if the Rafale has a ready ‘commonality’ case for the Indian Navy deal too. The Indian Air Force and Indian Navy have two very distinct requirements. It’s a different world altogether when you’re talking about naval aviation. It is the other benefits that the Indian Navy will get from the collaboration, the growth potential the fact that tremendous amount of scale exists out there will not be
available anywhere else. Several dialogues are happening with the Indian Navy. In February 2019, Boeing entered into a three-way partnership with HAL and the Mahindra Group to support the F/A-18 pitch to India. Asked if that partnership would apply for the F-15EX too, Kanaglekar said, “It’s too early to say. Requirements will drive our business case and discussions. We are fully committed to Mahindra and HAL on the F/A-18 campaign. We will wait for requirements to see how things will pan out”. Boeing’s partner HAL has made clear its sentiments on how difficult it will be for the IAF to draft requirements in the 114 jet program that covers disparate fighter types. On the Super Hornet front, Boeing has had several levels of dialog with the Indian Navy over the last year. In February this year, Boeing revealed plans to test the F/A-18 on a ski-jump to prove compatibility on India’s current and upcoming aircraft carriers.
an IAF fighter going forward. The new strategy comes right ahead of the deliveries of India’s first Rafale jets this month. The Rafale had defeated Boeing’s F/A-18 in the erstwhile M-MRCA contest for 126 jets. That quest famously spiraled into the ground though, with the current Narendra Modi government then choosing to buy 36 Rafales, a fraction of the originally intended 126. Boeing brandishing of the F-15EX to the Indian Air Force may therefore be seen as a move to offset the clear advantages the Rafale now has by virtue of being in Indian inventory, and therefore making a default case for further orders.
August 2020
In the 114 fighter program, Boeing’s F-15EX (and F/A18 Super Hornet) potentially go up against a raft of fighters that include the Rafale, Su-35, MiG-35, Gripen E, Lockheed Martin F-21 and Eurofighter Typhoon. It remains to be seen how evaluations will play out, considering the huge energies spent on the M-MRCA field trials and tests, a contest described by a former Boeing India head as ‘a beauty contest on specs’. (The writer, Shiv Aroor, is a renowned defense columnist. He keeps an unbiased approach in his write up. Mr Aroor has also worked on various sensitive issues and areas of high conflict defense zones, like: Kashmir, Sri Lanka and Libya)
OBSERVER DAWN
35
Defence
CHINESE ARMY WITHDRAWS
TROOPS
FROM THREE FACE-OFF
SITES
36
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Defence
Galwan Valley was the site of violent clashes between Indian and Chinese armies on June 15 in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed
said National Security Advisor AjitDoval categorically conveyed to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Sunday about India’s position on the recent developments along the LAC including in the Galwan Valley area.
T
he People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China has on Thursday completed withdrawal of its troops from two more face-off sites in Gogra and Hot Springs in eastern Ladakh in line with a mutually agreed disengagement process with India. The External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson, Anurag Srivastava, at a media briefing, has once again rejected China’s claim over Galwan Valley. He reiterated that India remained convinced of the need for maintenance of peace and tranquility in the border areas and resolution of differences through dialogue. Srivastava stressed that India is committed to ensuring its sovereignty and territorial integrity and that the Line of Actual Control (LAC) must be strictly respected and observed, saying it is the basis for peace and tranquility in border areas. Sources said the two sides are also expected to hold a fourth round of Corps commander level dialogue by early next week to finalize modalities for de-induction of troops by both sides at their rear bases in the high-altitude region. The two nations have completed creation of a buffer zone of three kilometers in the three friction points of Galwan Valley, Gogra and Hot Springs as part of a temporary measure, the sources said, adding there has been a thinning out of troops from Finger 4 area in Pangong Tso as well. China has already pulled back troops from the friction points in Galwan Valley. The disengagement of troops from the friction points formally kicked off on Monday following a eight-week eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between the two armies at multiple locations in eastern Ladakh. Naveen Srivastava, Joint Secretary (East Asia) in the External Affairs Ministry, will hold talks with Wu Jianghao, Director General in the Chinese Foreign Ministry. The MEA Spokesperson
Doval and Wang, the Special Representatives for border talks, held a telephonic conversation on Sunday following which armies of the two countries began disengagement of troops from friction points in eastern Ladakh.
August 2020
Doval and Wang, the Special Representatives for border talks, held a telephonic conversation on Sunday following which armies of the two countries began disengagement of troops from friction points in eastern Ladakh. “The NSA emphasised in this context that the Indian troops had always taken a very responsible approach towards border management and at the same time, our forces were deeply committed to ensuring India’s sovereignty and security”, Srivastava said. He also said that Doval and Wang agreed that peace and tranquillity across the bordering areas were essential for the overall development of bilateral relations. He also reiterated that the recent Chinese claims to the Galwan Valley area are “exaggerated and untenable”. We remain convinced of the need for maintenance of peace and tranquility in the border areas and the resolution of differences through dialogue, at the same time, we are also strongly committed to ensuring India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Galwan Valley was the site of violent clashes between Indian and Chinese armies on June 15 in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed. The Chinese side also suffered casualties but it is yet to give out the details. According to an American intelligence report, the number of casualties on the Chinese side was 35. Srivastava also said the diplomatic and military officials of both sides will continue their meetings to take forward the process of disengagement and de-escalation as agreed to by the Special Representatives. “The next meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs (WMCC) is expected to take place soon”, he said. The Chinese military has completed moving back its troops from the face-off sites in Gogra and Hot Springs in eastern Ladakh in line with the understanding reached with the Indian Army, government sources said.
OBSERVER DAWN
37
Defence
DESPITE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, RUSSIA PROVIDES MAINTENANCE FOR INDIA’S AIRCRAFT CARRIER
D
espite the Coronavirus pandemic, the Russian experts continue offering maintenance for the Indian Navy ’s aircraft carrier Vikramaditya. A group of Russian technical specialists, which is assisting India in providing maintenance for the aircraft carrier Vikramaditya, has not left the country amid the Coronavirus pandemic. Despite the delays with the carrier’s acceptance for service, the Vikramaditya offers considerable possibilities for India’s Navy and allows the country to keep its supremacy in the Indian Ocean, the news portal said in its article. Russia has become the sole country that can offer India an aircraft carrier and without its participation the Indian Navy would have been unable to get a warship of this class. As the news portal said, no
38
The aircraft carrier Vikramaditya is a heavy upgrade of the Russian aircraftcarrying cruiser Admiral Gorshkov. The work on the ship’s heavy upgrade was carried out at the Sevmash Shipyard
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
other country has been able to offer India such major armaments as S-400 air defence missile systems and stealth frigates. The aircraft carrier Vikramaditya is a heavy upgrade of the Russian aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Gorshkov. The work on the ship’s heavy upgrade was carried out at the Sevmash Shipyard. The flattop was delivered to the Indian Navy on November 16, 2013. The agreement signed was in New Delhi in 2004, India received the Gorshkov’s hull for free but on condition of its upgrade at the Sevmash Shipyard and its outfitting with Russian-made aircraft. The Vikramaditya displaces 45,000 tonnes and features a modern flight deck and a ski-jump for aircraft take-offs, navigation and radar systems, communications and aircraft control technology and also other special equipment and assemblies.
Defence
INDIAN DEFENSE MINISTER TALKS WITH S KOREAN COUNTERPART TO BOOST DEFENSE COOPERATION
T
he Defense Minister, Rajnath Singh, has on Friday held a telephonic conversation with his South Korean counterpart, Jeong Kyeong-Doo, with a focus on further ramping up bilateral defense cooperation by launching joint production lines for military hardware and key platforms. South Korea has been a major supplier of weapons and military equipment to India for past several years. In 2019, the two countries finalized a roadmap for cooperation in joint production of various land and naval systems. About two months ago, the government announced relaxing foreign direct investment norms in defense manufacturing by allowing 74 per cent FDI under the automatic route with a view to attract overseas players in the sector.
“The two ministers reviewed the progress on various bilateral defense cooperation initiatives and expressed commitment to further promotes defense cooperation between the armed forces”
August 2020
The telephonic conversation took place in the midst of a tense border row between India and China. It is not immediately known whether the issue figured in the conversation. A statement issued by the Defense Ministry states that views on the regional developments of shared security interests were also discussed during the telephonic call. “The two ministers reviewed the progress on various bilateral defense cooperation initiatives and expressed commitment to further promotes defense cooperation between the armed forces”, a government officer said. It was also agreed to take forward the agreements in the field of defense industry and defense technology cooperation between India and Republic of Korea. The two nations also discussed the ways to launch joint production lines for military hardware and key platforms.
OBSERVER DAWN
39
Int'l Biz
ALREADY-DETERRED COAL INDUSTRIES IN POLAND WITNESSING ANOTHER HURDLE DUE TO CORONAVIRUS
T
he deadly Coronavirus has now spread its wing across the Poland’s coal mines, where the male members often move down deep underground in tightly packed elevators. They work shoulder-to-shoulder to extract the source of 75% of the nation’s electrical power. Out of almost 36000 Coronavirus cases in Poland, over 6,500 are the coal miners. The graph is measured nearly a fifth of all confirmed infections in the country, even though they make up only 80,000 of the country’s population of 38 million. The COVID – 19 hot spots, centered in the southern Silesia region, have paralyzed an already-troubled industry, forcing many to stay home from work and triggering a three-week closure of many state-run mines that are only now reopening. This is another blow that the pandemic has dealt to the global coal sector, already in steep decline in much of the world as renewable and other energy sources get cheaper and societies increasingly reject its damaging environmental impact. Economic shutdowns from the virus also have cut electricity demand. Britain completely removed coal-fired power from its grid for 67 days starting April 9, 2020. Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, Bob Ward said, “Coal is in a long-term decline”. It’s simply cheaper to use gas or renewable, and the economics of coal just no longer make sense in many parts of the world. Ward said the question
40
The deadly Coronavirus has now spread its wing across the Poland’s coal mines
is whether the recent sharp reduction in coal use is sustainable and will last beyond the impacts of the pandemic. The U.S. coal companies, already in financial trouble, are more likely to default because of the pandemic, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
from Mozambique, Colombia, Australia and even Russia. As it does so, Poland’s own coal piles up unused, and some mines have been closed. Warsaw Mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski, while speaking in an election rally in Silesia said, “Look what’s happening with coal, how many millions of tons are being imported from outside Poland, and it was supposed The COVID – to be completely different”. 19 hot spots, As coal mines struggle, their centered in the stock of unsold coal is the southern Silesia region, have highest it has been in five years, paralyzed an Lewandowski said. The mines already-troubled are between a rock and a hard industry, forcing place. They need to manage many to stay the outbreak while they are in home from work and triggering financial tatters.
The world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, China has been accelerating plans for new coal power plant capacity as it tries to revive its virushit economy. Poland, under pressure from the 27-member European Union to lower carbon emissions, is seeing the pandemic complicate its coal a three-week troubles. Poland is the only closure of many EU state refusing to pledge In an open letter to the Prime state-run mines carbon neutrality by 2050. Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, that are only Governments in Warsaw have some 40 environmentalists, now reopening. argued for years that as an scientists and other groups ex-communist country still urged him to urgently prepare trying to catch up with the West, it cannot a plan for phasing out coal use in order to give up the cheap and plentiful domestic receive EU funds for making a transition energy source. It also says its reliance on to a greener society. However the miners coal plays is important for weaning itself are worry if the government could use the from Russian gas. outbreak as a pretext to permanently shut inefficient mines. The virus spread very fast In reality, Poland’s coal production but the good news is that very few have is becoming less efficient, and it has faced serious complications, and many have increasingly been importing cheaper coal recovered.
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Int'l Biz
INDIA’S MSME TO GET MULTIPLE SUPPORTS FROM WORLD BANK
T
he Small businesses, that are often termed as the backbone of Indian economy will take long to recover. The World Bank has zeroed in on the sector with a $750 million emergency response program and is working with the Indian government on building a platform for MSMEs to get financiers to take on raised invoices cutting through the delay that MSMEs face in receiving payments. The sector forms the life-blood of India’s economy. It contributes to 30% of India’s GDP and 40% of exports. After a slew of interventions by the World Bank targeted towards health and migrant labor postCovid in India, the bank approved a $750 mn MSME Emergency Response program to support increased flow of finance into the hands of micro, small and medium enterprises. The premier bank has identified massive liquidity issues hurting the MSME sector and constraints in the flow of finance from banks and NBFCs to the MSMEs as some of the main issues that need to be resolved to enable the MSMEs to
participate in the recovery of the business cycle. The program, states the bank, will channel liquidity by de-risking lending through a range of instruments. According to World Bank data only about 8 per cent of MSMEs are supported by formal credit channels. And the program will incentivize and mainstream the use of fintech and digital financial services in MSME lending and payments. The $750 million loan has a maturity of 19 years including a 5-year grace period.
the absence of any direct liquidity infusion into MSMEs by the government, MSMEs are dependent on banks and NBFCs to utilize the credit guarantee scheme that provides a collateral-free loan to the MSME with the government undertaking the risk of the loan. Mehnaz Safavian, the Financial Sector The scheme is the biggest fiscal Specialist at World Bank Group, component of Rs20 lakh crore said, “The MSME sector is an The program, ‘Aatmnirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’ important space in the economic states the bank, package announced by the ecosystem that we always had will channel government. Another concern our eyes on. This intervention liquidity by deoften raised by MSMEs is nonis really about keeping the lights risking lending payment of dues, especially on. In other words, if an MSME through a range of instruments. by government agencies and was healthy before the Covid According to PSUs, a point made rather crisis then every opportunity World Bank emphatically by the MSME is given to such units to make data only about minister Nitin Gadkari on sure it remains healthy even 8 per cent of several occasions - about Rs 5 after the crisis. In doing so, MSMEs are lakh cr is owed to the MSME liquidity and access to finance supported by sector. The World Bank is are the most critical features. formal credit working with the government The government and the RBI channels on building a digital platform, have taken a lot of measures TReDS for facilitating the to make sure that the liquidity financing/discounting of trade receivables reaches the final MSME borrower, which of Micro, Small and Medium enterprises was earlier not making its way through through financiers. These receivables can be because banks and NBFCs were risk due from corporates and other buyers, the averse. Through this operation, we are MSME can upload the invoice and get the providing resources to the government for receivable almost immediately -liquidity that its support program towards the MSME will enable the MSME to keep the business sector”. Access to credit continues to be cycle going. the foremost concern for most MSMEs, in
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
41
Int'l Biz
US’S MUCH POLITICIZED ‘HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE’ IS BROADLY UTILIZED IN INDIA
T
he widespread use of Hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 patients has become highly politicized in the US but it is used widely in India. A top White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Director, Peter Navarro said, “It’s the politicization of this medicine by the mainstream media and portions of the medical community that somehow made this a battle between President Trump and them and created this undue fear and hysteria over a drug, a medicine that has been used for over 60 years relatively safely and is regularly prescribed to pregnant women if they are going to a malaria zone”. He said, “The idea that this is a dangerous drug is just silly, but if you ask the American people based on the media’s coverage of it, that is kind of the state of play right now”, adding that he said. Navarro said a day earlier four doctors at the Detroit Hospital System filed a request for emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine. The request was for three things.
42
Three, not just as a therapeutic but also as a your organs. Hydroxychloroquine, based possible prophylaxis for preventative use,” on the science in articles like the one that he said. This request to the FDA comes on originally appeared in 2005 in the Journal the heels of the publication of their study in of Virology, works in a therapeutic way the Journal of Infectious Diseases last week by raising the alkalinity of your cells which that showed an astonishing 50 percent slows the replication of the virus and reduction in the mortality rate for patients also can kill the virus,” he said. It also has taking hydroxychloroquine, an anti-inflammatory effect, Navarro said. Give hydroxy which is why it is used for “And then I a chance, and please don’t rheumatoid arthritis, and the would not contribute to hydroxy hysteria drug can therefore also help hesitate to take it”, he added. He because if it’s prescribed under manage what is called the said if one looks the supervision of a doctor, the cytokine storm, he said. The at the 14-day arc odds that it can harm you are latest request to the FDA also of the virus from way, way smaller than the odds comes on the heels of two the beginning that it can help you,” Navarro decisions by the FDA over the of symptoms, the first seven said. “This has become a highly last several months to shut days are critical: politicized issue, but India uses down hydroxychloroquine. when a person this widely for prophylaxis. “The first was what is called a may have fever, There is a number of studies black box warning, the second dry cough, which point to this actually was a withdrawal of an EUA possibly a profound sense working. The official said if and what I can tell you as of fatigue he were to show any kind of someone who works with the symptoms, he would first ask Health and Human Services his doctor whether hydroxychloroquine Department and FEMA to manage the stockpiles of hydroxychloroquine the FDA is appropriate. “And then I would not decisions that they made which I think were hesitate to take it”, he precipitous and based on bad science had added. He said if one a tremendously negative effect on two looks at the 14-day arc things,” he noted. of the virus from the beginning of symptoms, “One is the ability for American people the first seven days are critical: when a to use this medicine to protect themselves person may have fever, and two, the ability for hospitals like dry cough, possibly the Detroit Hospital System to recruit a profound sense of patients for the kind of randomized fatigue. blind clinical trials that everybody wants to settle once and for all the questions “At that point, your lungs of efficacy and safety,” he added. are still intact, and the Navarro said the Detroit doctors are virus is not appreciably bringing back to the FDA a clear case for spread to the rest of early treatment.
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Int'l Biz
‘RATIONED DOLLARS’ EMERGE AS THE HOTTEST COMMODITY IN LEBANON
I
nitially the lines snaked around the block and then they swelled to fill the whole street, before they turned into a raucous mob of men shoving to the front of the line. There at the exchange bureau, they could buy rationed dollars, the hottest commodity in Lebanon.
The turmoil is deepening resentment of the political elite and the once flourishing banking system — and fueling desperation.
The financial meltdown of the small Mediterranean country has thrown Lebanese into a frantic search for dollars as their local currency’s value evaporates. Every transaction, from doctor fees to store purchases to rent, is negotiated day by day, juggling the tumbling Lebanese pound and multiple, changing dollar exchange rates. Those who can are snapping up luxury goods or real estate, trying to use their dollars trapped in bank accounts frozen by the cashstrapped authorities. The turmoil is deepening resentment of the political elite and the once flourishing banking system — and fueling desperation. Recently, a 61-year-old man apparently distraught over his economic situation shot and killed himself on a Beirut commercial street, one of multiple suicides during the crisis. During the 15-year civil war and Israel’s invasion and occupation of the south and Beirut, there may have been queues for water or bread, but Lebanon was always flush with dollars. Many scramble Since 1997, the local currency, for ways to use the pound, was pegged at their trapped “Lollars,” around 1,500 to the dollar, fearing and Lebanese used the two they could interchangeably. eventually This kind of stability was built on what experts say was essentially a Ponzi scheme that let banks and the elite profit while allowing Lebanese to live beyond their means. Most of those deposits were from Lebanese expats attracted by high interest rates.
lose them completely. Lines formed outside luxury retailer Louis Vuitton because it was selling at a rate half the black market
It collapsed when remittances and direct foreign investments plunged in recent years. In the ensuing liquidity crunch, the pound has lost nearly 85% of its value. Tens of thousands have fallen into poverty, wages are worth only a fraction of what they once were, and prices are skyrocketing — stripping Lebanon of its trademark joie de vivre and vibrancy.
Chain retailers have shut down, unable to import or price goods with the fluctuating rates. Some vendors have either closed or only take payment in dollars. Dollar accounts have been frozen, and those trapped dollars have become ‘Monopoly money’ with no value outside Lebanon, said Dan Azzi, a former banker and analyst. He coined a name for that currency, the ‘Lollar’ or Lebanese dollar.
However, people began hoarding cash dollars, getting relatives living abroad to transfer dollars, which — unlike frozen local accounts — can be withdrawn from the bank. Some sell gold for dollars. “We buy gold at the highest price $39-$55 and in cash”, reads one jeweler’s marketing telephone message. The peg remains in place officially, even as the black market price of a dollar
August 2020
has spiraled to at least five times that. Meanwhile, authorities imposed rationing on exchange bureaus, limiting how many dollars a person can buy and setting a rate higher than the peg but lower than the black market. That fanned the raucous lines. Some bought dollars only to sell them on the black market. New phone apps cropped up to keep track of multiple rates. “Isn’t all this humiliating?” said Elie, a security guard keeping order at an exchange bureau. Many scramble for ways to use their trapped “Lollars,” fearing they could e v e n t u a l l y l o s e t h e m c o m p l e t e l y. Lines formed outside luxury retailer Louis Vuitton because it was selling at a rate half the black market. Others use stuck dollars to settle bank loans, still valued at the official peg. Azzi estimates loans up to $15 billion have been paid already. Ghassan Frem, a dentist, paid a friend’s loan of over $30,000 with his Lollars.
OBSERVER DAWN
43
Industry
PROPERTY MARKET RULES TIGHTENED IN SOUTH KOREA
T
he South Korean Government is now preparing for new regulations in order to curb excessive house price gains. The Government authorities believe that these have fueled public discontent over inequality and property speculation. “It will further tighten property market rules and impose heavier taxes on multiple homeowners as more than 20 rounds of cooling measures introduced in the past three years failed to calm runaway home prices”, the South Korean authorities said. While talking at a policy meeting, the SK Finance Minister, Hong Nam-ki, said, “The real estate taxes that kick in on properties valued over 600 million won ($499,488) for multiple home owners will be increased, while capital gains tax rates will also be raised”. Hong is expected to give details including exact tax rates at a briefing scheduled for 0230 GMT. The proposed measures will need parliamentary approval. President Moon Jae-in’s ruling party secured 180 seats in the 300-member, single-chamber parliament following an election in April, meaning the government should be able to pass the laws in the National Assembly. Anger over South Korea’s failure to calm runaway home prices has spilled onto top government officials with multiple residences, who are under pressure to sell their second homes to show they are committed to the policy drive. The policy has focused on imposing heavier tax penalties and mortgage curbs for multiple home owners, as the left-leaning government increasingly blamed renters for stoking a housing bubble. But as median apartment price in Seoul surged more than 50% through such curbs in the past three years, pressure to unload extra homes has seen top government officials racing to sell their second residences. Finance Minister, Hong in his facebook post said, “I put up (my apartment) on sale.” As a cabinet member, I’m deeply ashamed of myself in front of fellow citizens, and my acquaintances, amid controversy over multiple homes owned by public servants. To become a single-home owner, I am selling my apartment in Uiwang where I have been with my family.
44
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
INDIAN: APRIL – JUNE 2020 WITNESSES 67% FALL IN HOUSING SALES
T
he Sata analysis firm, PereopEquity has revealed that the Housing sales have fallen by 67% at almost 21,294 units across nine major cities during April-June due to outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and nationwide lockdown. According to a data released property consultant, Anarock, an estimated 81% fall in sales at 12,740 units across seven cities during April-June this year. According to PropEquity, total housing sales during April-June 2020 stood at 21,294 units, down 67% from 64,378 units in the year-ago period. Barring Noida, all other eight cities witnessed a decline in sales. Gurugram saw 79% fall to 361 units for the period under review as compared to 1,707 units in same period last year. Housing sales in Chennai and Hyderabad plunged 74% at 996 units and 1,522 units, respectively. Bengaluru witnessed 73% dip to 2,818 units from 10,583 units, while Kolkata saw 75% decline to 1,046 units from 4,152 units. On the other hands, the sale of residential properties in Mumbai has fallen by 63% to 2,206 units. The demand was down by 56% and 70% in Thane and Pune at 5,999 units and 5,169 units, respectively. The national capital region market bucked the trend to register 5 per cent growth in sales volume to 1,177 units during April-June this year from 1,123 units in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Industry
SKYROCKETING INDIAN BRANDS ROCK THE ‘LIST OF SAFEST CARS’
A
t a time when staying safe emerged as the biggest challenge for not only in India, but entire world due to the coronavirus pandemic, anything that entails safety is taken in high spirits. Road and occupant safety has been paramount for carand bike and we have always voiced our opinions louder than anyone about Safer Cars for India. In fact, this is in line with Global New Car Safety Assessment Program's (Global NCAP) cry for 'Safer Cars For India' which started back in 2014. The Global NCAP has been no less than a catalyst in pursuing automakers to up the built quality and safety quotient of their models. Global NCAP's data shows that three made-in-India mass market models boast of a 5 Star safety rating while seven models have received a 4-star safety rating. All the cars get dual-airbags and ABS with EBD as a standard offering, a thing which the Bharat New Vehicle Safety Assessment Program (BNVSAP) norm has mandated now and was on the option list of more carmakers. It just shows how far the auto industry has come when it comes to putting safety ahead of everything else in building cars. In 2014, there wasn't a single made-in-India model that qualified as 'safe' to take the impact of a mild or high intensity collision at speeds of 64 kmph or above. That said, with times changing and new safety norms like the BNVSAP coming forth, there's been a significant improvement. The Mahindra XUV300 is the safest made-in-India model currently in India as it has the highest score achieving a full 5 Star safety rating for adult occupants and 4 stars for child occupants. The Tata Altroz and Nexon too have achieved 5 Stars in safety rating for adult occupants while both scored 3 Stars for child safety. The Tata Tiago, Tata Tigor and Volkswagen Polo have scored 4 Stars in adult occupant’s safety rating while they receive three-stars in the child occupant safety rating. Then, the Mahindra Marazzo, Honda Amaze, Toyota Etios, Maruti Suzuki Vitara Brezza and the Tata Zest (not on sale anymore) bagged 4 Stars in adult occupants' safety and 2 Stars in child occupants safety. Dr, Pawan Goenka, PresidentMahindra & Mahindra took to twitter to acknowledge that the Indian brands dominate safest cars in the country race. "Now here is an achievement that is worth tooting our horn for. XUV300 stands at the top amongst the Safest cars in India. Also good to see that 6 of the 7 safest cars are Indian brands”, he added.
That said, this is a journey that has just started as some of the bestselling models like the Maruti Suzuki Swift, Marti Suzuki Ertiga, Maruti Suzuki WagonR, Hyundai Santro and the Renault Kwid among others still need to catch up. Despite being in its third-generation, the highly popular Maruti Suzuki Swift has managed to score just 2 Stars in both adult and child occupants' safety, while the Maruti Suzuki Ertiga has scored 3 Stars in both adult and child occupants' safety. The Ford Aspire and Renault Duster get 3 Stars in adult occupant safety and 2 Stars in child occupant safety. The new Maruti Suzuki WagonR and Hyundai Santro have scored 2 Stars in both adult and child occupants' safety, while the Renault Kwid and Datsun Redi-Go manage to get just a single star. Moreover, crash test results for other popular models like the Maruti Suzuki Alto 800 and Maruti Suzuki S-Presso among others are still awaited.
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
45
Industry
COUNTRY’S FARM TRADE TO BOUNCE BACK BETWEEN JULY TO DECEMBER Besides, shortages of labors as a part of their ‘return back to their home village’ in order to find any concrete alternate sources of income largely affected the industry.
I
ndia’s farm trade that faced severe jolt during the coronavirus crisis due to logistic issues in March-June is now supposed to rebound in the second half of the calendar year 2020. It all came into light after a report was furnished by an analytics firm Fitch Solutions in July first week. The Union Government forced a strict nationwide lockdown from March 25 to April 30, 2020. Soon after, partial lockdown was imposed to prevent the spread of coronavirus. These measures were eased in phases from June 8 despite a continued surge in domestic COVID-19 infections, in order to protect livelihoods. We note that some states will remain in lockdown beyond May, which will continue to disrupt the economy and agribusiness operations. Stating that the farm trade was greatly disrupted during the lockdown due to logistic issues, Fitch Solutions said both exports (rice, sugar) and imports (palm oil) collapsed over March-June.
Small meat producers are struggling as they are unable to sell their products at a time when feed prices are rising due to transport disruptions, which will push many of them out of business in 2020.
The report noted, “These disruptions pose downside risks to our 2020/21 production forecasts for rice, sugar and coffee production, in particular if individual states' lockdown measures drag on or "We now if a nationwide lockdown is reinstated”. The 2020-21 “These wheat crops were harvested disruptions pose before the lockdown started downside risks and India recorded a record to our 2020/21 production crop, along with the 2019-20 forecasts for rice, sugar crop. Stating that the dairy and livestock production sectors will be significantly impacted, the report said that transport of livestock was restricted or became extremely complicated, while meat slaughterhouses shut down as some trading
The report says, “We forecast trade to rebound strongly in H2 (second half) of 2020, but total trade volumes over 2020 will be in line or below 2019 levels due to the scale of the decline recorded in H1 (first half) of 2020”. This will be the case for palm oil imports that have been almost 40 per cent lower year-on-year over January-April. It also said, “We expect demand to recover strongly in H2 of 2020 (due to low stocks and low international prices), but total imports over the year are likely to be lower than in 2019”. Stating that India's agribusiness sector is being significantly impacted by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Fitch Solutions said that although farm work and port operations were deemed essential services and were allowed to continue operating under the lockdown, the disruptions to transport and labor availability impacted agribusiness production.
46
companies said that they were not considered an 'essential service' that were allowed to operate during lockdown.
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
sugar and coffee production, in particular if individual states' lockdown measures drag on or if a nationwide lockdown is reinstated”
forecast meat production to decline in 2020 and see further downside risks to our forecasts," it said, noting that COVID-19 adds to the key structural challenges India's beef industry was already facing prior to the pandemic. The significant disruptions to meat production recorded in the US and Brazil (with meat processing plants closing down due to COVID-19) could bode well for international demand of India's beef, it said.
Moreover, lower purchasing power globally due to the impact of the pandemic on economic growth should also boost demand for lower-quality and cheap Indian beef meat in 2020, in particular from developing countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, it added. About the dairy firm, the Fitch Solutions said milk supply to consumers across India has been relatively smooth, unlike perishables such as fruit and vegetables, which witnessed recurrent price volatility.
Industry
DOMESTIC AUTOMAKERS TO FACE SEVERE JOLT DUE TO EMBARGO ON IMPORTS
J
umping on the anti-China bandwagon will not be easy as certain spare parts, sourced from the Asian neighbor, are critical for manufacturing of BS-VI emission norm compliant vehicles, especially for the India’s Automobile industry. With the advent of new stringent emission norms and connected features in vehicles, manufacturers need catalytic convertors, fuel injection systems and other such electronic parts based on semiconductors which are not manufactured in India, and also the ones available in China are cost competitive. Not surprisingly, in February when factories in China were shut following the coronavirus outbreak, Indian vehicle manufacturers like Hero MotoCorp Ltd, TVS Motor Company Ltd, Tata Motors Ltd, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd and others had scale down production due to shortage of imported spare parts. With relations between the two countries souring, most automakers are now looking at ways to locally manufacture some of these critical spare parts. However, these could take up to five years to see results. The Chairman, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, RC Bhargava said, “A lot of electronic parts which go into a car cannot be made in India. Those are not available in India but I cannot complete a car without those parts...We should now look at how to improve the
quality and cost of Indian products”. While there is a significant dependence on China for internal combustion engine driven vehicles, the country’s is crucial for spare parts of electric vehicles. Most lithium-ion batteries and cells, and electric motors are imported from China. Rajesh Menon, the Director General, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers said, the Indian automobile industry was pushed into upgrading to BS VI emission norms in just three years which did not allow for building of domestic supply chains. He added, “As the technology to meet BS VI emissions is high-end, the industry had no option but to work with global suppliers.
The Indian auto companies will take at least 3-5 years to establish domestic sourcing of critical spare parts since the demand forecast for the domestic market is quite subdued
Some parts being capital intensive, it did not make commercial sense to manufacture and source from India. Global suppliers of these parts have capacities in China and sourcing from China made commercial sense. All this led to dependence on China”. The analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services in a report released on June 23, 2020 had said, “Any tariff or non-tariff
August 2020
barriers to import would push OEMs for localization of these components in the long term. While we have seen localization drives in components like alloy wheels over the last few years, we still do not have the requisite scale/skills in certain segments like electrical and semiconductors”. The automobile manufacturers of India leapfrogged from Bharat Stage IV emission norms to stage VI within just three years, as the Indian government wanted to reduce vehicular emissions to curb pollution in major cities and towns. According to a senior executive in an Indian auto maker, manufacturing cost will increase if India raises tariffs on import of some components since sourcing countries other than China will be more expensive.
The Indian auto companies will take at least 3-5 years to establish domestic sourcing of critical spare parts since the demand forecast for the domestic market is quite subdued. For global manufacturers to set up a base in India will only make sense if the domestic market can generate volumes. Otherwise any company will convince them to manufacture these parts in India.
OBSERVER DAWN
47
Science & Technology
Your camera has dozens of buttons and menu options. If you pick the wrong camera settings, it’s possible that your photo won’t turn out the way you want
n o l a i c Spe
WORLD PHOTOGRAPHY DAY 19 AUGUST
48
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Science & Technology
How to Start Photography: Guide for Beginners Many people today believe that their phone is good enough for most photography, and they have no need to buy a separate camera. And you know what? They’re not wrong. For most people out there, a dedicated camera is overkill. Phones are better than dedicated cameras for most people’s needs. They’re quicker and easier to use, not to mention their seamless integration with social media. It only makes sense to get a dedicated camera if your phone isn’t good enough for the photos you want or if you’re specifically interested in photography as a hobby. This is the guide for you – it’s time to learn photography.
The Three Fundamental Camera Settings Your camera has dozens of buttons and menu options. If you pick the wrong camera settings, it’s possible that your photo won’t turn out the way you want. How do you make sense of all these options? There are only three basic camera settings you have to take care of. The three most important settings are called shutter speed, aperture, and ISO. All three of them control the brightness of your photo, although they do so in different ways. In other words, each brings its own “side effects” to an image. So, it’s a bit of an art to know exactly how to balance all three for a given photo. Shutter speed: The amount of time your camera sensor is exposed to the world while taking a picture. Shutter speed is responsible
for two particular things: changing the brightness of your photo, and creating dramatic effects by either freezing action or blurring motion. When you use a long shutter speed, you end up exposing your sensor for a significant period of time. The first big effect of it is motion blur. If you use an especially fast shutter speed, you can eliminate motion even from fast-moving objects, like birds in flight, or cars driving past. Aperture: Aperture can be defined as the opening in a lens through which light passes to enter the camera. It is an easy concept to understand if you just think about how your eyes work. As you move between bright and dark environments, the iris in your eyes either expands or shrinks, controlling the size of your pupil. Aperture can add dimension to your photos by controlling depth of field. At one extreme, aperture gives you a blurred background with a beautiful shallow focus effect. At the other, it will give you sharp photos from the nearby foreground to the distant horizon. On top of that, it also alters the exposure of your images by making them brighter or darker. ISO: Technically a bit more complex, but similar to the sensitivity of film for taking pictures in different lighting conditions. As you increase your ISO number, your photos will grow progressively brighter. For that reason, ISO can help you capture images in darker environments, or be more flexible about your aperture and shutter speed settings.
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
49
Science & Technology
TIPS FOR BEGINNERS
1 2
3 4
Use the Camera You Already Have Much more important are your creative skills and knowledge of camera settings. Focus your effort on those, not on collecting camera equipment.
5
Don’t Overexpose Highlights When you are picking your camera settings, it is critical to avoid overexposing highlights in a photo. The reason? It’s simply impossible to recover any detail from white areas of a photo. When you’re taking photos, watch the camera screen to see if there is any overexposure. If there is, the first thing you should do is lower your ISO to its base value (usually ISO 100). If it’s already there, use faster shutter speed.
Use the Camera You Already Have Work with Your Composition: To take engaging photos, you need to be engaged with what you’re doing. Don’t just fly by on autopilot. Instead, put thought into your composition and try to make your photos as good as possible. Don’t cut off important parts of your subject with the edge of your frame. Keep your horizons level, and try to eliminate any distractions in your photo by adjusting your composition. See if your photo has a sense of balance and simplicity. And if the photo doesn’t look good on your first try, keep experimenting until you get it right.
Learn Basic PostProcessing Post-processing isn’t very high on the typical photographer’s priority list, but it probably should be. Sometimes, with the right post-processing, a good photo can turn into something truly exceptional.
Try Something New The more you experiment with photography, the more interesting it becomes. It’s easy to fall into a routine and take similar photos over and over, and there’s nothing wrong with that, but it’s also important to try something new from time to time. Give macro photography a shot, or test some new lighting techniques. Branch out to a different post-processing style. Be spontaneous and drive to a location you’ve never photographed before. There are so many ways to try something new in photography, and you won’t regret it if you do.
50
6 7 8 9
Pay Attention to the Light The easiest way to solve this is to pay attention to the direction and softness of the light. If the light is too harsh, you could get bad shadows going across your subject, which is especially a problem for portrait photography. If the light is coming from an unflattering angle, see what you can do to move the light source (in a studio) or move the subject (outdoors) – or wait until the light is better (landscape photography).
Move Your Feet It’s easy to get stuck in one place while you’re taking pictures. Don’t fall into that trap. Instead, move your feet (or your tripod) as much as possible. Climb on top of things, change the height of your camera, walk forward and backward, do whatever you need to do – but keep moving.
Get Organized Whether you’re an organized or messy person, it’s very important that your photos are easy to find. It’s not just about speeding up your workflow; if you don’t remember how you’ve organized your hard drive, you might end up deleting a folder that contains important images without realizing it.
Learn Which Settings Matter First, try practicing with camera modes other than full Auto. You won’t learn anything if your camera is making all the decisions for you. It might be confusing at first, but hopefully our articles on aperture, shutter speed, and ISO will give you a good head start. Those are the three most important settings in all of photography.
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Business Tips We also expect most companies to offer varied work schedules and types depending on each employee’s preferences. Hybrid work weeks will likely be a top tier work perk (work from home some days , in the office on others) along with stipends for remote workers and other remote work perks.
FUTURE OF WORK LIFE POST-
COVID ERA
Treating employees as Human While some organizations have recognized the humanitarian crisis of the pandemic and prioritized the well-being of employees as people over employees as workers, others have pushed employees to work in conditions that are high risk with little support — treating them as workers first and people second. Employers have to be deliberate in which approach they take and be mindful of the effects on employee experience, which will be long-lasting. They will have to balance the decisions made today to resolve immediate concerns during the pandemic with the long-term impact on the employment brand.
T
he future of work has been sped up. We've made so much digital and technological progress as a result of the pandemic, which means that the future looks a bit different than we thought it would at the beginning of the year. Learn more about the future of work post-COVID in this article. When Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said, “We have seen two years’ worth of digital transformation in two months,” around May of this year, he was entirely correct. Things that people had in their mind as “the future of work” for ten years from now are suddenly the norm right now in 2020. COVID-19 has truly changed how the entire world functions in just a few months' time. So what does the future of work look like post-COVID? As the world starts to cautiously re-open, what will employers do to keep employees & consumers safe, employed, and healthy? Here are our predictions on some of the key aspects of the future of work around the world.
Change to the Traditional Office The past few years have seen a rise in coworking spaces, shared office spaces, and, of course, the digital nomad jumping from coffee shop to coffee shop. Now, these types of workspaces are considered high-risk for the spread of disease, making them risky for small and large businesses alike. We predict a shift back to the private office space model. This can, and likely will, change to accommodate entrepreneurs, small business teams, and remote workers to offer private offices in shared buildings. Remote work has increased dramatically throughout the pandemic, which we believe will spur the increase in the use of virtual office space.
Workplace Design Changes
Virtual offices give people the amenities and office necessities they need without the physical location or having to even go into an office. Everything you need to work will be digital and handled by the virtual office company.
Remote Work Is Here to Stay
Design on the office space will shift over a period of time due to COVID-19 with a mixed response by the occupants of the space. Organizations must continue to support social distancing and maintain healthy work Most Space environments to safeguard Planners, their workforce. Architects & product providers are proactively thinking ahead of time to bring in new concepts & technologies to provide a healthier and more sustainable workplace for the future
As nonessential workers moved to work from home or work remotely, they joined some of the millions of others already making a living from home or at least taking remote workdays a few days per week. It’s estimated that approximately 50 percent of workers are working from home during this crisis. Now several businesses and companies have come to know that remote work is not only possible for them, but also efficient, productive, and even helps them save money!
Most Space Planners, Architects and product providers are proactively thinking ahead of time to bring in new concepts and technologies to provide a healthier and more sustainable workplace for the future. Occupiers have embraced the preliminary phase to accelerate the short term transition and have started partnering with organizations like JLL to plan a safer and informed re entry at the workplaces. Return to work in the preliminary phase will not be what it used to be before the outbreak of the pandemic and for now social distancing and workplace wellness will prevail.
Even More Emphasis on Work Perks
The work environment
Millennials have already pushed companies and employers to start offering better work perks and offerings to entice them into positions in certain companies. As we move to the future of work post-COVID, we expect to see even more of these perks with an emphasis on healthcare, sick days, hazard pay, childcare, and, of course, working remotely if necessary.
One of the top pluses or minuses cited by employees is their work environment, and specifically their physical environment. A flexible work environment is a key driver in companies retaining valuable talent. A survey shows that worldwide 87% of employees are disengaged and the physical workplace affects employee job satisfaction with the top likes being: great co-workers; work environment and good benefits
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
51
Special Story
The term, ‘Herd Immunity’ is highly echoed in medical fraternity and much prevalent term in COVID – 19 pandemic
ACHIEVING
‘HERD IMMUNITY’ THROUGH NATURAL INFECTION, A REAL HAZARD
T
he term, ‘Herd Immunity’ is highly echoed in medical fraternity and much prevalent term in COVID – 19 pandemic. However, People are mostly confused & swayed by the excitement regarding the same. The very term ‘Herd Immunity’ is rapidly setting in and has become a buzz word these days. This is also being propagated by many Indian as well as the foreign scholars in their recent reports. Despite being a widely debated subject in the pandemic, insufficient data and absence of rational scientific model to support such a thought process have made the case of proponents of this theory highly untenable. The given data and available facts entail a bad precedent by the scientific community that the term ‘Herd Immunity ’ really exists. The critiques of this theory say that it’s just to brain wash the people in terms of COVID-19 outbreak and the concept of ‘Herd immunity’ is badly flawed lacks evidence. Here is some basic logical analysis based on current data which clearly indicates that this is widely exploited term
52
by medical fraternity with no substantial data and model to validate it.
If proportion of the population that is immune
proportion. If proportion of the population that is immune to the disease is greater than this threshold, the spread of the disease will decline. This is known as the ‘Herd Immunity’ threshold.
Now, let us know as what to the disease exactly ‘Herd Immunity’ is and is greater than why has it attained prominence this threshold, during COVID-19 pandemic? the spread of What percentage of a To this, ‘Herd Immunity’ is an the disease will community needs to be epidemiological concept that decline. This is immune in order to achieve describes the state where a herd immunity? It varies from population – usually of people known as the disease to disease. The more – is sufficiently immune to a ‘Herd Immunity’ contagious a disease is, the disease that the infection will threshold greater is proportion of the not spread within that group. population that needs to be In other words, enough people immune to the disease to stop its spread. can’t get the disease – either through For example, the measles is a highly vaccination or natural immunity – that the contagious illness. It’s estimated that 94% people who are vulnerable are protected. of the population must be immune to And it makes the spread of disease from interrupt the chain of transmission. But in person to person highly unlikely. As a result, the case of COVID-19, it is complicated to the whole community becomes protected ascertain the threshold as large number of — not just those who are immune. Often, populations chose to be inside the home a percentage of the population must be due to various reasons, and those who are capable of getting a disease in order for getting infected are fraction in numbers, it to spread. This is called a threshold
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Special Story it makes the job of our scientists tougher. Hence, to ascertain the real time data for right number of infected people and reach threshold look like a chimera. However, various other data coming from different countries makes the task more complicated rather than providing solutions to it. Even if we get some real time data, the cost of getting this data is much higher, particularly in a country of large population like India & China. India is democratic country so free flowing of real time data is possible to get but from China, it’s very difficult to get the real data, as they are governed by communists, and their principle of governance does not guarantee freedom & equality so the censuring the data is very common in China. In COVID-19, first China has withheld crucial data regarding the spread of coronavirus and connived to spread this virus across the world so rapidly. In congressional testimony in the month of May, Dr. Anthony Fauci has made it clear that there exists no conclusive evidence that the infection with COVID-19 results in long-term immunity, seconding the warnings of the World Health Organization (WHO) in the month of April. However, Fauci’s statement may be in line with political tribalism &polarization. But no doubt, the facts are facts, and negation of it only increases the problem of common populace rather than providing succour to them in times of such monumental global crisis of coronavirus. Moreover, most of the countries across the world have begun reporting the results of large-scale tests of their populations for COVID-19 antibodies. Universally, these tests have shown that, even in areas with the worst outbreaks, only a small fraction of the population has been infected. Average data shows that only 5-6% population have been getting antibody, and to reach the stated target of Herd Immunity that is between 40% to 50% which is lower than scientific data given by the scientists. Earlier scientific community claimed that the herd immunity reaching percentage is
60% of total population, where 60% but recently, a research The experiment it will reach heard immunity, it was published in science daily of reaching will cost more than half million using mathematical model by the “herd sacrifice of the population at the University of Nottingham immunity” in the current rate of mortality. and University of Stockholm, Sweden simply The experiment of reaching where it categorizes people crashed and the “herd immunity” in Sweden into groups reflecting age and endangered the simply crashed and endangered social activity level. When the lives of millions of people differences in age and social lives of millions with a highly unscientific activity are incorporated in the of people approach of the government. model, the Herd Imunity level with a highly Many widely criticized this reduces from 60% to 43%. unscientific approach, as this did not Even considering that latest approach of the yielded any desired result. Now model, it looks still unviable to government take the comparative analysis of reach the objective of ‘Herd the data in India on the basis of Immunity’ at this colossal level. current model, reaching the optimum level However, many researchers have come of current population’s herd immunity, India forward with their new studies and facts needs to infect around half of its population, to validate their point of view. which is 670 million and if we consider the current mortality rate, i.e. 3% so reaching An extensive study, released recently, has the cost of herd immunity would more found that just about 5% of the Spanish than 20 million population of India that is population has COVID-19 antibodies. This unthinkable and irrational as the collateral is even though, Spain has registered the damage is so high. highest number of COVID-19 cases, as a share of population of any large country in As we know that there are two scientific the world. Even if recovery from infection ways to achieve “Herd Immunity”, the first guarantees immunity, which again is not is through natural infection and second is clear, the hypothetical immunity for five through large scale vaccination. In the case percent (5%) of the Spanish population cost of COVID-19, to achieve “Herd Immunity” 28,385 lives. This means that the 50 percent through natural infection, most of the infection rate necessary to see a decrease scientific studies negate such a notion and in cases would require the sacrifice of so far as vaccination is concerned there a quarter million (2,50000 thousand is no such approved vaccine as of now to mortality) human beings, so the collateral bring such large scale “Herd Immunity” in of achieving the herd immunity is too high. the masses worldwide so that people can protect themselves from infecting. As per If similar figures hold in the United States, the updated reports there are an impressive with its 330 million people, a hypothetical 132 candidate are in preclinical evaluation& ‘Herd Immunity’ would require the sacrifice 16 vaccine candidates are in clinical trials, of nearly two million (2 million) people. Is it and most of the companies are in heavy rationale? Are the proponents of this theory rush to produce an effective vaccine at warp right in their assessment or it’s too early to speed. conclude? Or are they in complete mad rush to prove a point? Take the case of Sweden, it has 10 million populations and there is no (The writer is a former board member, mentor official goal of reaching heard immunity at and Adviser to tech start-ups, writer and strategic thinker on geo-political issues) particular point of timeline. Let’s consider it
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
53
Special Story
YOUNG INDIAN PARLIAMENTARIAN BROKE CHINA’S ILL-WILL IN 1965
P
erhaps for the first time in 1965, India’s young Parliamentarian, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, made Chinese authorities realize about their actual limitations. The then young leader was also success in breaking the ill-wills of China.
But with the time passed, exposing China gradually became a challenge for the world. The country never fails to surprise the world, particularly India with deception in its policies, domestic or foreign. The main excuse that China had used for a military confrontation with India in 1967 was the charge that Indian soldiers had stolen its sheep and yaks. In 1965, the country made this claim. This was the time when China was itching for another territorial expansion by appropriating Sikkim, which was a kingdom under India's protection. It was also the time when India was busy fighting infiltrators from Pakistan in Kashmir. Just three years ago, India had suffered a humiliating defeat in war. China was again threatening to "teach" another 1962-like lesson to India. However, as it turned out in the end, China miscalculated India's preparedness this time around. China wrote a letter to the Indian government accusing Indian soldiers of stealing 800 sheep and 59 yaks. The Indian government obviously wrote back denying the ludicrous charge but the response that Vajpayee, then a 42-year-old Jan Sangh leader, gave left China fuming. Vajpayee arranged for a herd of around 800 sheep and drove them to the Chinese embassy in New Delhi in late September. The sheep had placards tied saying, ‘Eat me but save the world’. This incensed China so much that it shot off another letter to the Lal Bahadur Shastri government. China had called the protest by Vajpayee an ‘insult’ to the Chinese nation and alleged that it happened with the backing of the Shastri government. In its response, India replied confirming that ‘some of the citizens of Delhi took in procession about 800 sheep’ but said, "The Government of India had nothing to do with this demonstration. It was a spontaneous, peaceful and good-humored
54
Atal Bihari Vajpayee, made Chinese authorities realize about their actual limitations. The then young leader was also success in breaking the ill-wills of China
and 59 yaks the Government expression of the resentment The main of India have already given of the citizens of Delhi against excuse that a reply in the clearest terms the Chinese ultimatum and China had used possible. We know nothing the threat of war against India for a military of the yaks and as regards on trumped-up and trivial confrontation the sheep it is up to the two issues”. In its original complaint, with India in herdsmen concerned to take China had alleged that four 1967 was the them to Tibet if and when Tibetan inhabitants had been charge that they choose to go back to their kidnapped by the Indian Indian soldiers homeland”. The entire episode soldiers. India had responded had stolen its of Vajpayee mocking China's saying, “Like other Tibetan sheep and yaks. bullying tactic had become refugees these four people In 1965, the a talking point during those had come into India on their country made weeks of tension leaving people own volition and without our this claim in splits in public conversations. permission and taken refuge in Couple of years later, Chinese India. They are free to go back knocked the door of India to ‘teach’ India to Tibet at any time if they desire to do so”. a lesson but forced to return with a bloody China might actually have gotten infuriated nose. The lesson that China learnt in 1967 with the two Tibetan women, who escaped ensured peace on India-China border for the eyes of Chinese authorities and crossed several decades until Xi Jinping became the over to India. They approached a police president and resumed the salami slicing station on Indian side and complained about policy once again. atrocities committed by Chinese officials and soldiers. China wanted India to hand over these women and some other Tibetans who had fled seeking refuge in India. On the question of stealing of sheep, Indian response was - "Apropos the 800 sheep
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Special Story
RESEARCHERS, SCIENTISTS TRACE NEW VIRUS IN CHINA
E
ntire world is still grappling with the COVID -19 pandemic, whose source of origin is yet to be ascertained. The World Health Organization (WHO) says identifying and understanding the origin of coronavirus pandemic is key to an effective fight against ravaging Covid-19. And, at such a moment, the discovery of a new virus in China has triggered heightened concerns among the health experts.
The new viral strand is another flu virus that has the potential to become a pandemic. This virus is carried by pigs and researchers believe it can infect humans. It can mutate and spread easily through human-to-human transmission, much like coronavirus pandemic. The research scholars and scientists, in a recent research report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, an American journal, have confirmed that the new virus is similar to the Swine Flu virus detected during the 2009 outbreak. That virus had been named A/H1N1pgm09. This one has been named as G4-EA H1N1. The virus is similar but not same and may pose the threat of being a completely new pathogen to humans. Swine Flu pandemic did not turn out to be the kind of threat that experts had initially estimated. Later, they attributed to its similarity to existing influenza viruses. This is why the vaccination against Swine Flu is covered under the existing flu vaccines. But in this case, the
scientists have identified the new virus as among the top disease threats. People don't have immunity for a wholly new disease. Ongoing coronavirus pandemic is a deadly proof to that. The research revealed, “Serological surveillance among occupational exposure population showed that 10.4% (35/338) of swine workers were positive for G4 EA H1N1 virus, especially for participants 18 y to 35 y old, who had 20.5% (9/44) seropositive rates, indicating that the predominant G4 EA H1N1 virus has acquired increased human infectivity ”. They warned further saying, "Such infectivity greatly enhances the opportunity for virus adaptation in humans and raises concerns for the possible generation of pandemic viruses”.
The Scientists also recommended, “Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring in human populations, especially the workers in the swine industry, should be urgently implemented”
The Scientists also recommended, “Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring in human populations, especially the workers in the swine industry, should be urgently implemented”. Though the researchers believe the virus is not an immediate threat to human health but it can grow and multiply very fast in the respiratory tract --- nose to lungs - of humans. Their fear is not misplaced given that they have found
August 2020
evidence of recent infection in the swine industry abattoirs in China. However, some Chinese researchers warned that coronavirus pandemic may be followed with another similar health crisis. Discovery of new virus in China has come at a time when the WHO is preparing to send a team to that country to investigate origin of coronavirus pandemic that has infected more than 1 crore people and claimed more than 5 lakh lives.
The Major Highlights are: • The Research Scholars and Scientists Traces new virus with pandemic potential in China • This new virus is similar to one that caused Swine Flu pandemic in 2009 onwards • They call for immediate steps to contain virus in pigs and infected humans.
OBSERVER DAWN
55
Eco-System
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO GROW 1°C EVERY YEAR FROM 2020 – 2024
E
ntire world is now striving to minimize the effects of climate change, it’s the truth. The much publicized Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update states that global average temperatures are likely to be at least 1 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels each year from 2020 to 2024. The new forecasts also show that there is a 20 percent chance that global average temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in at least one of those years. On the basis of the models from climate prediction centers around the world, the new outlook highlights the need for drastic action to curb climate change — particularly if the world has any hope of meeting the goals set out by the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. In a statement released recently, the WMO Secretary-General, Petteri Taalas said, “This study shows — with a high level of scientific skill — the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the The WMO’s Paris Agreement on Climate projections Change target of keeping a account for global temperature rise this natural climate century well below 2 degrees variations Celsius above preindustrial and provide levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase a look at how even further to 1.5 degrees temperatures, Celsius”. precipitation and wind
These efforts are likely to be patterns may an uphill battle. In early 2020, a change over the NASA analyst and the National The WMO’s projections next five years Oceanic and Atmospheric account for natural climate Administration found that the variations and provide a past decade was the planet’s warmest look at how temperatures, precipitation on record, and the past five years have and wind patterns may change over the been the warmest since record-keeping next five years. The new outlooks do not, began in 1880. however, include changes in greenhouse gas emissions or other impacts from the coronavirus pandemic. A 2018 report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate In May 2020, a research study published in Change stated that Earth has already the journal Nature Climate Change found warmed by 1 degree Celsius since the 19th that strict lockdowns and restrictions that century and warned that further warming banned travel and scaled back economic by 1.5 degrees could have catastrophic activity contributed to an estimated 17 consequence, including melting ice, percent decline in daily global carbon extreme heat and rising seas that may be dioxide (CO2) emissions compared to daily life-threatening to tens of millions of people global averages from 2019. around the world. The WMO report states that over the next five years, almost all The study ’s researchers added that regions of the planet are likely to be warmer than in the recent past. In 2020 alone, the the drastic drop could also fuel a decrease Arctic, which has been in the grips of a heat in this year’s annual carbon emissions wave in recent weeks, will likely warm by of up to 7 percent, though the declines more than twice as much as the global likely won’t have a long-term impact average, according the WMO. after countries return to normal. The
56
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
WMO stressed that any observed decreases in emissions from the coronavirus pandemic should not replace meaningful action to address climate change. Taalas said, “Due to the very long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, the impact of the drop in emissions this year is not expected to lead to a reduction of CO2 atmospheric concentrations which are driving global temperature increases”. He added that global warming could have even more far-reaching health and economic consequences than the current global health crisis. “Failure to tackle climate change may threaten human well-being, ecosystems and economies for centuries,” he said in the statement. “Governments should use the opportunity to embrace climate action as part of recovery programs and ensure that we grow back better.
Eco-System
INDIA, OTHER COUNTRIES RESOLVE TO MOVE TO RENEWABLE ENERGY
A
t a time when entire world was distressed over rampant pollutions, especially because of the haphazard industries, several countries have decided to move on from coal and coal-based thermal power plants. These are considered as major source of pollution. Even India also announced the auctioning of its coal mines for commercial purposes last month. In the first week of July 2020, the German parliament adopted a law to ensure the phasing out of coal power by 2038. As a result of years extensive debate on the issues, the country finally reached the conclusion that it was better to do away with coal-based thermal power plants. There is still a concern over Germany not reaching climate targets, with the national government granting coal companies too much compensation. However, Germany’s decision to phase out coal in the country seems to be an indicative of a worldwide trend against coal. Similarly, Spain ceased operations of around half of its coal-based thermal power plants on June 30. The country had 15 such plants and decided to shut seven in order to move towards clean energy sources. Recent move came a year and a half after the European country closed all its coal mines. Electric companies in Spain realized — taking European regulations into account — that the reliance on coal-based thermal power plants for energy did not make financial sense, according to reports. Other
countries — including Japan and the United States — have taken major decisions to phase out coal as an energy source as well.
The WMO’s projections account for natural climate variations and provide a look at how temperatures, precipitation and wind patterns may change over the next five years
In the US, utilities in three states, including Arizona, announced plans to close one or more of their coal plants and shift to renewables. Japan decided to shut 100 of low-efficiency coalfired power plants by fiscal year 2030. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in Japan has chalked out a plan to achieve the closing target of plants that emit large amounts of carbon dioxide. As per the information, Island country has 140 coal power plants, with around 110 considered to be inefficient.
All these steps were taken only when India and neighboring countries use coal for their energy needs. Indian PM, Narendra Modi, inaugurated auctioning of coal mines in the country and said this was the biggest un-lockdown of the country’s coal sector. The performance of India’s coal power fleets declined by 21% from 78% in 2010 — a historical low — according to the India’s Clean Power Revolution report published June 26 by BloombergNEF. Pakistan takes huge financial burdens for opening new coal power plants despite the fear that it would be tough for the country to pay back loans.
August 2020
The country has asked China to restructure the loans and easier repayment terms for a few of its projects, including two Chinese-financed coal-fired plants in 2020, with more in the pipeline intended to meet overestimated demand growth projections.
In April 2020, according to Pakiastan PM, Imran Khan, i t s h o w e d t h e Pa k i s t a n government’s awareness of its financial burden. The total capacity payments to public, private and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor power generators can reach an unsustainable $9 billion in the next few years as more capacity is added. Both, Pakistan and Bangladesh, face lower capacity utilization of their power plants as well. Pakistan’s overall thermal power capacity utilization in 2018-2019 was just 40% as per the report prepared by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. And hence, the overall utilization for Bangladesh was just 43% in the finance year 2018 – 2019, the report said. Countries decided move to renewable energy include Germany, Japan, Spain and the US. Besides, India has also decided to move towards the same direction.
OBSERVER DAWN
57
Tour & Travel
AFTER CORONA VISIT THESE PLACES NEAR
DELHI TO FRESHEN UP
T
he Coronavirus has devastated economies around the world. People had never imagined they would be imprisoned in closed rooms for months bypassing the fun of life. Corona virus has made life really colorless. People are also afraid to visit nearby tourist places during the summer in which people used to make plans to visit the country and abroad. Corona has completely destroyed tourism. Now that the lockdown has eased, people are planning to spend some good time at nearby tourist spots to overcome their boredom by keeping fear at bay, so as to come out of mental stress. If you are thinking of refreshing your mood, then you can go to Himachal and Uttarakhand with great precaution and spend two to three days to freshen your mood.
Is it really safe to travel in India during the pandemic? Airlines in India are back into action, as on May 25, the Indian Government allowed domestic airlines to resume operations across the country. As regarding international travel, we need to wait for some time as it is yet to get the green flag. Now, the decision to travel during the pandemic is entirely your choice, along with your responsibility to ensure your personal safety. Some states have quarantine rules in place, which you also need to check before planning your travel. Further, you need to check if the state you are travelling to, is allowing flights from your state or not. As India entered the Unlock 2.0 phase, more and more people are gearing up to embrace the new normal, and hence, venturing out to travel. No matter what, it should be noted that no amount of preventive methods
Hill ridges, irregular in shape and partly wooded, form layer after layer to the horizon, where snow capped mountain peaks are visible as though you can touch them
58
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Tour & Travel Mussoorie offers superb scenic view of peaks of the Himalayas in western Garhwal
Mussoorie
can offer you the guarantee of safety while travelling, including the flight. A reason why it is all the more important to weigh all your options before boarding a flight, such as assessing your age, medical history, and other risk factors. Even if you follow all the precautionary measures, you cannot deny the fact that the risk of exposure will always be there.
As of now, it is advisable to stay at home if travel at this point of time can be avoided. But hey, no harm in planning your post-covid vacay, right? Himachal and Uttarakhand will be cheaper and better option for traveling. You can reach these hill stations near Delhi by car and enjoy the journey of these beautiful paths. Let us tell you the places where you can have fun for two to three days in Himachal and Uttarakhand.
M
ussoorie, Queen of the Hills, located some 290 km north of New Delhi, is among the most popular hill stations of the country. It is a captivating paradise for leisure travellers and honeymooners. A perfect summer resort and a major educational and cultural centre has been rolled into one hub. Located on a 15 km long horseshoe ridge with the grand Himalayas as a backdrop, the colonial hill resort of Mussoorie spreads across at a height of 2,005.5 m above sea level. From this vantage point, Mussoorie offers superb scenic view of peaks of the Himalayas in western Garhwal. Mussoorie boasts of some of the most spectacular views of the Himalayas. Hill ridges, irregular in shape and partly wooded, form layer after layer to the horizon, where snow capped mountain peaks are visible as though you can touch them. From West to East, the mighty peaks of Bandar Poonch, Srikantha, the Gangotri group and the Chaukhamba present a mesmerizing panorama. 34 km from Dehradun, Mussoorie overlooks the majestic Doon valley to its south and the impressive Himalayas up north. The mountains beckon climbers, trekkers and adventure sport enthusiasts. Trekkers begin their journey into the popular trekking area of Har Ki Dun with its snowscapes and verdant-forested slopes from Mussoorie. The holy River Ganga is visible from one end of the ridge and Yamuna from the other, a stretch of around 20 km in all, from Cloud’s end in the west to Jabarkhet in the east.One of the most easily accessible hill stations in Northern India, during the peak tourist season, Mussoorie becomes a bustling resort with hordes of holiday-makers ambling down the central Mall. The suburban area of Landour, about 300 m away from the main town, is quieter and has managed to retain some of its old colonial charm. Surrounded by lush wooded expanses and winding lanes, it offers exclusive opportunities for quiet walks. It overlooks the sprawling Doon valley and the city of Dehradun, the gateway to Mussoorie and to entire Garhwal.
Popular Places to See: Mussoorie Lake, Kanpti Falls, the God's Own Wax Museum, Dhanaulti, Soham Heritage and Arts Center, George Everest House, Adventure Park, Christ Church, Bhatta Falls, Moss Falls, Gun Hill, Lal Tibba, Camel's Back Road, Jabarkhet Nature Reserve are some places where you can spend your time well.
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
59
Tour & Travel
Shimla S
himla is the capital of the northern Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, in the Himalayan foothills. Once the summer capital of British India, it remains the terminus of the narrow-gauge Kalka-Shimla Railway, completed in 1903. It’s also known for the handicraft shops that line The Mall, a pedestrian avenue, as well as the Lakkar Bazaar, a market specializing in wooden toys and crafts. Cold weather, lush green deodar and the grandeur of the British era will make you crazy after coming to Shimla. Shimla, the capital of Himachal Pradesh, has an elevation above 7000 feet above sea
level. Due to this height, summers are also very cold here. You can first take the train to Chandigarh, from where buses and taxis are easily available to reach Shimla. Remember that the buses and trains coming from here are completely sanitized, in which your journey will be safe. Popular places to see: Christ Church, Jakhu Hill, Jakhu Temple, Rashtrapati Niwas, Kali Bari Temple, Mall Road, The Ridge, Town Hall, Gaiety Theater, Bantoni Castle, The Glen, Gorton Castle, Annadale, Army Heritage Museum, Johnny Ka Wax Museum, Shimla Heritage Museum, Himachal State Museum, Summer Hill
C
ommonly known as the “Lake District of India”, Nainital is one of the most beautiful hill stations in North India. Surrounded by mountains on three sides Nainital is located around the beautiful lake Naini Tal. This lake resort is situated at a height of 1,938 meters. There are many legends associated with the place. According to one, Nainital has derived its name from the Goddess Naina while the other legend says that when the Goddess Sati lost her eyes, she was being carried by Lord Shiva and a lake was formed. (‘Naina’ means eyes and ‘Tal’ means lake.) This beautiful small town in surrounded by seven hills, popularly known as ‘SaptaShring’ – Ayarpata, Deopata, Handi-Bandi, Naina, Alma, Lariya-Kanta and Sher-Ka-Danda. The majestic mountains and the sparkling waters of the lake add an immense lot to the beauty of the town. Commonly known as the “Lake District of India”, Nainital is one of the most beautiful hill stations in North India. Surrounded by mountains on three sides Nainital is located around the beautiful lake Naini Tal. This lake resort is situated at a height of 1,938 meters. There are many legends associated with the place. According to one, Nainital has derived its name from the Goddess Naina while the other legend says that when the Goddess Sati lost her eyes, she was being carried by Lord Shiva and a lake was formed. (‘Naina’ means eyes and ‘Tal’ means lake.) This beautiful small town in surrounded
60
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
Nainital
Tour & Travel
Ranikhet
R
anikhet is a place related with the legends of Himalayas. Historical accounts tell us the Queen Padmini of Kumaon was enchanted by this tiny hill paradise. King Sudhardev obliged her, by building a palace here for the queen and named the place Ranikhet (the queen’s fields). No trace of the palace can be found today, but the place remained the same: captivating, abounding with flowers, trees and green meadows in the midst of heavenly Himalayan surroundings. Lost into oblivion for long, the picturesque hill station was rediscovered by the British. They bought the land from the native villagers and build it into a summer resort apart from establishing an army recruitment
centre. Ranikhet still remains the head quarters of the gallant Kumaon Regiment. Situated at a height of 1,829 meters, with an area of 21.76 sq. km Ranikhet has too much to present to the visitors – a healthy climate, tall coniferous trees, vast green meadows, tranquil surroundings, perfect peace and warm, open-hearted people. Every season has its own irresistible charm. This is what makes Ranikhet an all-season destination. Ranikhet also boasts of one of the best hill golf greens (9 holes) in the country. Places to Visit: Rani Lake, Ranikhet Golf Course, Asiana Park, Mankameshwar Temple, Binsar Mahadev Temple, Bear Dam, Tarkhet, Upat Kalika Temple
by seven hills, popularly known as ‘Sapta-Shring’ – Ayarpata, Deopata, Handi-Bandi, Naina, Alma, Lariya-Kanta and Sher-Ka-Danda. The majestic mountains and the sparkling waters of the lake add an immense lot to the beauty of the town. Places to Visit: Naini Lake, Naina Peak, Tiffin Top, Snow View, Eco Cave Garden, Big Stone, Cold Road, Bada Bazaar, Raj Bhavan, Naina Devi Temple, Pashan Devi Temple, Hanuman Garhi, Observatory, GB Pant High Altitude Zoo
August 2020
OBSERVER DAWN
61
Tour & Travel
R
ishikesh, a most tranquil place in northern Uttarakhand, surrounded by hills and bisected by the wide and sluggish Ganges, is often claimed as the `Yoga Capital of the World’. Back in the 1960s Rishikesh gained instant fame as the site where The Beatles came to stay with their guru, the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi. It is an excellent place to meditate and study yoga. Rishikesh is also a good starting Laxman Jhula point for treks to Himalayan pilgrimage centres such as Badrinath, Kedarnath , Gangotri, Yamnotri.It is rightly called the gateway to the Himalayan Shrines of Badrinath, Kedarnath, Gangotri and Yamunotri. 7 Story Temple Situated 24 km upstream from Haridwar, at the confluence of the Chandrabhaga and Ganga,
Rishikesh has long been a spiritual centre. It is said that the sage Raibhya Rishi did severe penance here and as a reward, God appeared to him in the form of Hrishikesh, hence the name. Rishikesh has numerous ashrams, some of which are internationally recognized as centers of philosophical studies, yoga
Rishikesh
and meditation. An international yoga week is organized here every year by Uttarakhand Tourism between 2nd and 7th of February. For the adventurous, there are opportunities for white water
rafting on the Ganga. The climate here is continental type but its location in the foot hills gives it a pleasant weather throughout the year. One can visit Rishikesh any time of the year.
Valley of Flowers
monsoon clouds began to drizzle, the valley shows its flowery face and the entire region would glisten like a colourful carpet.
A
sprawling expanse of 87 square kilometers in the Chamoli District of Uttarakhand, Valley of Flowers is set in the backdrop of the majestic Himalayan Ranges. This virtual paradise on earth has been unknown to the outside world till the great Mountaineer Frank S Smith discovered it in the year 1931 A world heritage site, the valley is situated at a very remarkable area, which is the conversion point of Himalayan ranges of Western and Eastern Himalayas. This
62
fairyland located in the high altitudes of Himalayas is protected by snowy mountains. Bounded by the magnificent mountain ranges and glittering glaciers, this place unfolds the charisma and charm of nature at its best. Unspoiled by human invasions this imposing land lay iced up in the colder months, and burst into its majestic boom on the arrival of hotter months. During these months the valley sheds its somnolent nature with its multitudes of exotic flora. When the
OBSERVER DAWN August 2020
A scenic place where the nature blooms with its entire vista can be accessible by a tedious but lovely stroll. Eye catching spectacles like the cascading waterfalls, small streams and above all the flowery meadows awaits the visitors all through the way. With the flamboyant paddocks, crystalline streams and majestic peaks, this baroque of flowers is a worthy watch spectacle. Also witness the wildlife in national park: Lime Butterfly, gray langur, flying squirrel, Himalayan black bear, red fox, Himalayan weasel.