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Letter from the Editor “Stabilization” Is Possible through “Commitments” Dear Readers, The entire world is gradually turning into “the Coronavirus Hotspot”. Even the sacred soil of our motherland, India, is not untouched from this deadly virus. Facts quoting Government organization and media reports suggest that altogether 49 people have already lost their lives and more than 1500 people were tested positive of the disease. Thousands of suspects were kept in quarantine in different states of the country till March 31, 2020. A true speaking, deadly virus has been spreading its wing across the world over the past couple of months. Not only India, but several other countries have been marked among the worst affected. Besides, one Asian country and there are seven European countries among the ten most affected countries with coronavirus. With the virus entering the United States, the country replaced China as the country with the highest coronavirus cases until the end of March. The disease reached in almost 170 countries of the world and the WHO declares nCoV as a global pandemic. The top ten countries affected by COVID-19 comprised: USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, China, France, Iran, UK, Switzerland, and Turkey. The ugly faces of COVID – 19 may be witnessed in terms of unprecedented economic slowdown, besides human losses and the worsening lifestyle of the masses.

system are among the most significant steps to stay healthy and safe from the coronavirus disease, according to the directive issued by the world’s premier institution - World Health Organization (WHO). Like several other countries, India too chose to go for a nationwide lockdown. And of course, it was a commendable decision by our Prime Minister, Sri Narendra Modi, the outcome of which can be realized with the lowering number of ‘COVID-19’ positive cases in our country. Hence, apart from following the WHO guidelines to stay safe and healthy, we must contemplate the steps needed to control the deteriorating economy, even in such a grim situation. Now, the question arises on how to cope up with the deteriorating economic conditions, especially when the entire system is halted and we are virtually confined into a room of 10: 12 feet? Indeed, the entire situation has emerged as a big challenge for all of us and we have to take up the gauntlet. In my school of thought, nothing is beyond our reach. Everything is possible in the universe. But what we need is nothing but commitment. If we are committed to our system, family, friends, and of course, our employer, we can really do something that we have never done.

However, taking a serious note of the situation, various national and international organizations have come forward with their preventive measures for containing the spread of this pandemic coronavirus disease. Meanwhile, the victims are being provided with the required medical facilities and proper guidance. Social distancing, sanitizing your body and surroundings, consuming hygienic foods, using warm water and keeping up with your immune

Hariom Tyagi Editor-in-Chief Observer Dawn Connect with Hariom Tyagi

@harityagi2003

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April 2020

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BRIEFING COVER STORY

BUSINESS OUTLOOK

Committee to Review Financial Consolidation Road Map

OPINIONS

IN-DEPTH

‘Regulatory Virus’ of Tour & Travel Industries

BS-VI Fuel to Cut Vehicular Pollutions in India

DEFENCE

20 6

WC of Indian Army Steps Up to Combat COVID – 19

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Heart Wrenching Truth of Hindus/Sikh in Kabul

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INDUSTRIES Defense Industry Receives $8.82 m FDI

38 8

HEALTH Unprecedented Health Benefits of Dates

ENTERTAINMENT ‘Being an Indian’ is the Only Religion in India: Akshay Kumar

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

INCREDIBLE INDIA Coffee & Tea Tour of India

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ECO-SYSTEM Wildfires of Australia Curse for Eco-System on Blue Planet

Business Outlook

COMMITTEE TO REVIEW FINANCIAL CONSOLIDATION ROAD MAP

n Eight-member committee would review the fiscal consolidation road map of both the state as well as the central governments. Constituted by the Finance Commission, the Committee will be headed by NK Singh, the Chairman of 15th Finance Commission Chairman. Terms of Reference of the panel include making recommendations on the definition of deficit and debt for the central government, overall states, the general government and public sector enterprises by considering all explicit and measurable liabilities of the sovereign and by bringing in consistency between the definition of debt (stock) and deficit (flow), the Finance Commission said in a statement on March 19, 2020. This apart, the panel will also lay down the principles for arriving at the debt of the general government debt and consolidated public sector with appropriate netting to avoid double-counting. The committee will define contingent liabilities, provide quantifiable measures of such liabilities, wherever possible, and specify conditions under which ‘contingent’ liabilities become ‘explicit’ liabilities of the public sector. It will recommend a debt and fiscal consolidation road map for 2021-FY25 for the central government, overall states and general government and attempt building up scenarios for public sector enterprises.

A N Jha and Anoop Singh, members of 15th Finance Commission, S Krishnan, additional chief secretary, Government of Tamil Nadu and AnirudhTiwari, principal secretary, Government of Punjab, are among the other members of the committee. In addition, representative each from the Office of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, the Controller General of Accounts, Joint Secretary (Budget) of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance. Two outside experts Sajjid Z Chinoy and Prachi Mishra will also be members of the committee.

COVID-19 PANDEMIC TO CAUSE GLOBAL RECESSION: ANAND MAHINDRA

ith small businesses, self-employed and daily wage workers taking the worst hit, the coronavirus pandemic will leave behind a global recession, said Anand Mahindra, the chairman, Mahindra Group. “The virus will eventually be conquered, but it will have left behind a global recession. The costs of that are incalculably high at this time. The most fearsome toll will be on small businesses, the self-employed & those whose lives depend on meager daily wages”, Mahindra said in a tweet on March 19, 2020. He also added, “Besides the toll on lives, the legacy of Covid-19 may well be deaths due to stress, loss of livelihoods, a rise in homelessness and in extreme situations, civil unrest”. Mahindra said, “The only global experience that has lessons for us in the current situation is the last world war. In the aftermath of WW2, the US came up with the Marshall plan to revive Europe, effectively a giant fiscal pump-priming”. The United States Government dramatically dismantled regulations and opened up the economy to trade and these actions led to a boom-cycle that stretched to 1975 in US, Mahindra stressed. He highlighted that this time there would be no victors, only the vanquished. The Mahindra group chairperson also said, “So every country will have to create its own Post ‘VirusWar’, Marshall Plan & take care of those in society who are hit the hardest. Perhaps we too can build the foundations of a sustained global growth cycle”. He emphasized that the only global experience that had lessons for us in the current situation was the last world war. “In the aftermath of WW2, the US came up with the Marshall plan to revive Europe, effectively a giant fiscal pump-priming”, Mahindra said.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Business Outlook

RBI TO IDENTIFY ENTITIES FOR SETTING UP PCR

ndia’s Central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is in its final stage to identify the entities meant to set up the Public Credit Registry (PCR). The TATA Consultancy Services and Dun & Bradstreet have been identified as the L1 bidders to implement the project after a technical evaluation. A notice put up in the central bank’s website reveals that the value of the contract is Rs 349.92 crore. Altogether, 10 entities had responded to the tender floated by the RBI in October 2018, including four registered credit bureaus in India. The RBI governor, Shaktikanta Das, recently said, the project on PCR will fundamentally address the information asymmetry that impedes access to credit for micro and small entrepreneurs. He added, “The PCR has been envisaged as a database of core credit information. The registry would play a crucial role in reducing the credit gap in the segment”. “As a public utility, the upcoming PCR will allow lenders to obtain the past credit history on MSMEs’ loan exposures, repayments and outstanding”, a report of the UK Sinha Committee for MSMEs stats.

will prevent a situation where lenders protect the information of their profitable customers and are not ready to share it directly with other lenders.

The PCR is expected to be equally significant for lending in the microfinance industry. In an address in February 2019, then RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya had said that the PCR

The PCBs when given access to comprehensive data from a PCR can provide better and greater value addition through data analytics and innovations, complementing the PCR.

SECI INVITES APPLICATION FROM WIND, SOLAR PLANTS

he Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has invited applications from wind and solar plants to supply 5,000 megawatt (MW) power under a round-the-clock scheme. This scheme involves purchases of renewable energy, along with coalbased power, so that buyers have the assurance of uninterrupted electricity supply. Renewable power may include a combination of solar, wind and small hydro power with or without any energy storage system. As per the media, it will also provide some reliefs to lenders by enabling stressed coal power plants to find buyers for their electricity, thereby reducing the quantum of non-performing assets. As an intermediary agency, the SECI would carry out auctions, where sellers can quote a single tariff for supplying a combination of renewable and coal-based power. Generator is required to supply at least 51% from upcoming or under-construction renewable sources. The proportion of thermal tariff shall be adjusted to cover the possible changes in coal. The composite tariff would consist of 51% renewable energy tariff, 30% thermal fuel cost and the remaining would account for fixed thermal tariff. SECI will sign 25-year supply contract with the lowest bidders, and then sell the power to discoms, and earn a trading margin of `0.07/unit. Renewable energy industry is one of the major FDI earners with the sector attracting $4.8-billion foreign capital till 2019 end since FY15. As on January 31, the installed renewable energy capacity was 86.32 gigawatts (GW). Further, an additional 35.1 GW is under various stages of implementation and 34.5 GW under various stages of bidding.

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

Opinions

‘REGULATORY VIRUS’ OF TOUR & TRAVEL INDUSTRIES By Rameesh Kailasam

s India aspires to become a $5 trillion economy, dependencies are high on its growth sectors. One such sector is travel and tourism, identified as an integral pillar of GoI’s ‘Make in India’ initiative, and a significant job creator. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), tourism generated $240 billion, or 9.2% of India’s GDP, in 2018, and supported 42.67 million jobs — 8.1% of its total employment. It was also the third largest foreign exchange earner. GoI seems to understand this, and is focusing on creating and fostering tourism in different areas such as medical, rural, lighthouse and spiritual tourism. But the tourism sector remains stunted due to certain onerous taxes and regulations that apply to only those who are located, and operate from, a ‘permanent establishment’ in India. Surprisingly, businesses that offer similar services but are located abroad, aren’t bound by these regulations and compliances, and customers have the option to procure the same services at much lesser costs — due to no goods and services tax (GST), permanent account number (PAN) and know your customer (KYC) requirements —from overseas operators. The Covid-19 pandemic may indeed be hitting India’s tourism sector hard. But the regulations deal a long-term blow to India-based companies, encouraging Forex outflow and revenue losses for government. Budget 2020 has two provisions: Section 194-O of the Income-Tax Act, which specifies the applicability of tax deducted at source (TDS) on ecommerce transactions; and an amendment to Section 206C widening the scope of TDS and tax

The ‘Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies 2018’ states that individuals making remittances under the liberalized remittance scheme (LRS) are required to submit their PAN to their respective authorized dealer (AD) or bank at the time of remittance. While this applies to ADs, it indirectly compels domestic travel agents to collect PAN, which many customers are allergic to, making them move to foreign portals for the booking.

collected at source (TCS). Under 194-O, TDS of 1% would negatively impact the working capital of online travel agencies (OTAs) and bring down growth, especially in the air ticketing business where all travel agents are bound by international payment settlement procedure laid No PAN, GST applicability for foreign down by the International Air Transport operators leads to a serious absence of a Association (IATA) and its settlement level playing field, resulting mechanism through the in revenue losses for Indian billing settlement plan (BSP) No PAN, GST businesses and government. or global distribution system (GDS)/central reservation applicability system (CRS) companies. Either foreign players need for foreign to be brought under similar operators compliances, or domestic These do not allow leads to OTAs should be allowed to deduction of TDS upfront. charge customers in foreign So, OTAs will have to pay a serious currency. TDS from their own pocket absence and later recover it from of a level airlines. This puts an undue The lack of a level playing working capital burden, due playing field, field and difficulties in ease to TDS liability of an average of doing business are hurting resulting of four months. Ideally, this India-based operators. in revenue should be withdrawn. The losses for only other option left with Adigital platform that can Indian GoI is to issue an instruction efficiently operate from a for IATA, BSP and CRS/ single office is forced to businesses GDS companies to include open 37 offices, 37 GST and upfront TDS deductions in registrations and 37 TCSs to government. their respective settlement offer services across India. mechanism. This results in increased costs, multiple accounts and 111returns Under Section 206C(1G)(b) of the I-T Act, a a month, over and above the annual seller of an overseas tour program package GST return for each state. The simplest shall collect TCS at 5% with PAN, and 10% solution for this is a centralized registration without PAN. This can be the final nail in mechanism on the lines of ‘One Nation One the coffin for the industry, as it will not only Tax’ and ‘Digital India’. There would be inconvenience the salaried class for whom no loss to state governments as operators TDS is already deducted on their earnings, would be charged integrated GST (IGST) but will also create unfair advantage to from their centralized location, and revenue foreign travel agents and suppliers who may would accrue to the state where the place remain outside GoI’s administrative reach. of supply would be. TCS should be made applicable only for those who don’t provide PAN, and can be (The writer is CEO, IndiaTech.org) at a higher rate.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Opinions

NOT ONLY THE HINDU FANATICS, EVEN DONALD TRUMP SAYS ‘NAMASTE’ By Reshmi R Dasgupta

n an official event recently, I had occasion to meet people who were friends or only acquaintances—all Indians. Most of us greeted each other with folded hands, but accompanied by embarrassed smiles and over-hearty articulations of ‘Namaste!’ It was understood that we were “regressing” to this age-old Indian form of greeting because of the exigencies created by the spread of COVID-19. And it is true: it’s taken a pandemic for us to return to something that has been part of our heritage for millennia. How many of us do or say Namaste anymore? More importantly, why did we dispense with it in favor of not only handshakes but also air-kissing, bear-hugging and high-fiving? While Namaste is still ‘said’ in some circles (especially when not speaking in English) it is hardly ‘done’. Except for those who speak, think, read and write primarily in English, the word Namaste rolls pretty easily off Indian tongues, and joining palms is not deemed more taxing than a handshake. For many other Indians though, the gesture is now something to be done mostly at ‘Indian festivals’, to go with their seasonal ensemble of ‘ethnic’ Indian clothes—that too, mostly to greet elders. And, ironically, it seems a certain class of Indians has now regained respect for Namaste thanks to it being adopted by a slew of foreign leaders, from Prince Charles and Donald Trump to Emmanuel Macron, Binyamin Netanyahu and others. Interestingly, the Indian-origin heads of giant brands like Microsoft, Google, Adobeetc are yet to join this international movement for Namaste. The origin of the handshake is prosaic: it was meant to show that the greeter was unarmed. On the other hand, the graceful ‘Namaste’ with palms together means ‘I bow to you’ but it is actually an acknowledgement of the godliness in the person being greeted. That, if you think about it, is a profound act of humbleness and honour. After all, many people use that gesture when praying. My generation (the half-centurions, give or take a few years) was probably the first to feel self-conscious about Namaste and turn to handshakes. It is easy to blame this on our colonial past, but actually our inferiority complex about many things Indian developed long after the British left.

After all, our parents’ generationthat grew up during the Raj—had no qualms about Namaste. My mother insisting on doing only Namaste when my parents were posted abroad, though there was pressure to conform to more ‘modern’—read, westernforms of greeting, especially if the other diplomat (or spouse) happened to be of another faith. But my mother believed Namaste is non-denominational, simply acknowledging the (nameless) divinity in all human beings. So, throughout their long diplomatic life, she relentlessly spread the word about Namaste to the foreigners she met, diplomatic or otherwise. So much so that at one European posting, both the Pakistani and Bangladeshi ambassadors used to smilingly respond the same way, instead of adaab—in hindsight, a wonderful acknowledgement of the basically secular nature of Namaste. My father, perhaps because of the natural reticence of most of his gender, was less vocal about it, but he devised a middle path by doing a Namaste and following it up with a handshake. A lot of men of his generation probably chose the same solution—at least in certain professions. Unfortunately, the ext generation (mine) dispensed with even that east-west amalgamation.

April 2020

Politics is one profession that bridges many classes—many Indias, so to speak. So Namaste is still a very common form of greeting in those circles. But given that politics has so many unsavory associations, it is not surprising that the Namastes’ prevalence there acts as a deterrent to its usage by others. Hospitality is only other profession in India where Namaste is proudly practiced. It is strange that my generation, and the ones that came later, so readily adopted greetings such as fist-bumps and high fives but willingly dumped Namaste for being inappropriate for our self-image, careers and social interactions. We can, of course, also blame it on the advent of mobile phones, which have monopolized one hand for the past two decades, making Namastes impossible! A meme currently doing the rounds features Prince Charles greeting a bunch of British celebrities with Namaste, evoking the same response from them. The tagline has words to the effect that “Covid19 has done what India couldn’t make the British do in 200 years!” The same can be said of many Indians too. Even if prompted by Covid19, it’s time we unabashedly welcome Namaste back into our lives.

OBSERVER DAWN

Opinion

CORONA LOCKDOWN INTERRUPTS SUPPLY CHAIN BUT ….. • Nationwide lockdown should make administration give up this bias against the vendors spur the Centre and the state governments to implement Street Vendors Act passed by the parliament in 2014

• Its right time for the governments to overcome bureaucratic lethargy and integrate its last line of defense in the supply chain management

Rambling on NCR’s DelhiGhaziabad bordering regions near Anand Vihar is a small quite colony – Kaushambi. The colony is home to mutli-storeyed apartment towers.

The Covid 19 lockdown should make administration give up this bias against the vendors spur the Centre and the state governments to implement Street Vendors Act piloted by the Manmohan Singh Government and passed by the parliament in 2014

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Opinion

Vegetables arrived non-stop at the mandis but there was none to pick as big buyers vanished because of the lockdown. If we were not allowed to pick, the veggies would have rotted

ajorities of these towers house Government quarters for the Indian Revenue Service, SAIL, HPCL, public sector banks, Bureau of Indian Standards and such other prominent institutions, besides private apartments and bungalows.

Not many other chief ministers including a ‘pro-people’ politician like Arvind Kejriwal has shown such initiative. Kejriwal, who came back to power distributing freebies, announced the setting up of the TVCs, only close to the polls, which is still to be implemented.

This locality was in news during the third week of March, when a Corona positive case was detected in one of the towers, and thereafter it has been in a lockdown. Though next to Ghazipur vegetable and meat wholesale market, both are in short supply. The up-market provision stores, which have been listed by the Uttar Pradesh administration as supply points, have not been able to bring much succor to, would not say starved but definitely mentally harassed residents.

“To the police, the municipal officials and the governments, the law of the nation means little. The street vendors are still harassed and despite a Supreme Court order, most of state and municipal governments have not stirred to create vending zones,” says Arbind Singh, the national coordinator of National Association of Street Vendors of India (NASVI), which has organized over 900 street vendors and hawkers associations in demanding the right of livelihood for the vendors. How are the street vendors functioning in lockdown times? As rightly pointed out earlier, this last line of defense was deployed by the Government as the designated provision stores have so far failed to rise to the challenge. “Vegetables arrived non-stop at the mandis but there was none to pick as big buyers vanished because of the lockdown. If we were not allowed to pick, the veggies would have rotted,” says a vendor in the Kaushambi Township dispensing vegetables wearing a protective headgear, gloves and the customary masks.

The misery was eased when a few good old street vendors started to make appearance with cartful of vegetables and fruits. The bread vendor is also holding fort outside the colony ’s Mother Dairy booth. In keeping with the Navratra spirit, a Bengali resident of the colony remarked them to be incarnation of ‘Annapurna’ (Goddess of food). Another from a central police organization was quick to say that the vendors were proving to be the last line of defense. Such change of heart is welcome given the fact that the residents of the same colonies, especially their vigilante residents welfare associations work overtime to “rid the colony of vendors.” To maintain the supply chain, now the local administration is allowing their ‘regulated’ appearance. This is welcome, as for the past few years whenever the government decided to celebrate Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday as ‘Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’, batons came crashing on these vendors making them push the carts indoors and keeping the streets clean of all the ‘encroachers’. The Covid 19 lockdown should make administration give up this bias against the vendors spur the Centre and the state governments to implement Street Vendors Act piloted by the Manmohan Singh Government and passed by the parliament in 2014. The implementation of this act has been slow barring a few exceptions like Odisha, where governance, under a visionary chief minister Naveen Patnaik, has seen many a first. The state has created dedicated vending zones and this has been done in consultation with the town vending committees (TVCs), consisting of the vendor representatives.

They have restored the supply chain calling up their ‘loyal customers’ taking orders on phone and calling back when the pack is ready for pick with the amount to be paid. “The only change in our present supply chain is that the errand boys have been done away with as the towers are not allowing entry of outsiders,” says vendor, in whom some are rightly seeing images of Annapurna. “Since survey of street vendors were completed in Uttar Pradesh some time back, it’s easy for the government to identify them and deploy them in Noida and Ghaziabad. On the contrary, no survey was done in Delhi, no vendor identified, so whom does the Govt deploy”, adds Arbind Singh. The fear now being that using the crisis some of the cartels may usurp these vending passes. The other state which has managed to deploy the chain of identified and licensed street vendors is Karnataka especially in Bengaluru. Given the Covid 19 lockdown experience, it could be right time for the governments to overcome bureaucratic lethargy and fully integrate this last line of defense in the supply chain management.

April 2020

(Courtesy: New 18)

OBSERVER DAWN

In-Depth

UNION FIXES MSP ON CACP RECOMMENDATIONS

he Union Government has fixed Minimum Support Price (MSP) on the basis of recommendations of Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP). Pre-determined principle to keep MSP at levels of 1.5 times of the cost of production was announced during the Union Budget – 2018 - 19. Consequently, the Government increased the MSP for all mandated Kharif, Rabi and other commercial crops with a return of at least 50 per cent of cost of production for the agricultural year 2018-19 and 201920. However, sections of farmers and farming organizations have, time to time, made their presence felt in terms of agitations and demands like increase in MSP for agricultural crops on the basis of C2 system.

BS-VI FUEL TO CUT VEHICULAR POLLUTIONS IN INDIA

mong other major developments, India is likely to turn into the world’s cleanest petrol and diesel country from April 1, 2020.

It would join the selected League of Nations using petrol and diesel containing just 10 parts per million (PPM) of Sulphur. As it looks to cut vehicular emissions, it would play a vital role in choking pollution in major cities. The Chairman, Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Sanjiv Singh said, “Almost all refineries began producing ultra-low Sulphur BS-VI (equivalent to Euro-VI grade) petrol and diesel by the end of 2019. This apart, the oil companies have now undertaken the tedious task of replacing every drop of fuel in the country”. Singh said, “We are absolutely on track for supplying BS-VI fuel from April 1. Almost all refineries have begun supplying BS-VI fuel and the same has reached storage depots across the country”. He stressed, the fuel has started travelling to petrol pumps and in the next few weeks all of them will only have BS-VI grade petrol and diesel. As such, fuel flowing from nozzles at all the petrol pumps in the country on April 1 will be BS-VI emission compliant fuel. India has adopted Euro-III equivalent (or Bharat Stage-III) fuel with Sulphur content of 350 ppm in 2010 and then took seven years to move to BS-IV that had Sulphur content of 50 ppm. It was a conscious decision to leapfrog to BS-VI as first upgrading to BS-V and then shifting to BS-VI would have prolonged the journey to 4 to 6 years. Besides, oil refineries, as well as automobile manufacturers, would have had to make investments twice - first to producing BS-V grade fuel and engines and then BS-VI ones. BS-VI has a Sulphur content of just 10 ppm and emission standards are as good as CNG. While, Delhi and its adjoining towns were to have BS-VI fuel supplies by April 2019, remaining parts of the country was to get the same supplies by April 2020. Stateowned oil refineries have spent about Rs 35,000 Crore to upgrade plants producing ultra-low Sulphur fuel. This investment is on top of Rs 60,000 crore they spent on refinery upgrades in the previous switchovers.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

One of the important factors is cost of production in the determination of MSPs. While recommending its price policy, the CACP considers all costs in a comprehensive manner which is based on the methodology recommended by Expert Committees from time to time. CACP considers A2+FL and C2 costs while recommending MSP. CACP reckons only A2+FL cost for return. However, C2 costs are used by CACP primarily as benchmark reference costs (opportunity costs) to see if the MSPs recommended by them at least cover these costs in some of the major producing States. The Government’s price policy is to ensure remunerative prices to farmers by offering to procure their produce at MSP. On the other hands, farmers are free to sell their produce to the Government procurement agencies at MSP or in the open market whichever is advantageous to them.

In-Depth Apart from increasing MSP, Government has taken several steps to provide remunerative prices to farmers for their produce which include undertaking procurement through designated procurement agencies, implementing e-National Agriculture Market (eNAM), enacting the Model Agricultural Produce and Livestock Marketing (Promotion & Facilitation) Act, 2017 and promoting Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs).

YES BANK FIASCO: BIGGEST BANKERS ASSURE DEPOSITORS’ SAFETY

The Government is working on market architecture so as to ensure that farmers get remunerative prices on their produce. These include setting up of Gramin Agricultural Markets (GrAMs) with a view to promote 22,000 number of retail markets in close proximity of farm gate; competitive and transparent wholesale trade at APMC through e-NAM. The recently launched Umbrella Scheme Pradhan Mantri Annadata Aay Sanraks Han Abhiyan (PM-AASHA) provides for a holistic arrangement for assurance of a remunerative price for farmers. This Umbrella Scheme comprises Price Support Scheme (PSS) for pulses, oilseeds and copra, Price Deficiency Payment Scheme (PDPS) and Pilot of Private Procurement & Stockiest Scheme (PPSS) for oilseeds to ensure MSP to the farmers. MSP operations are given wide publicity through pamphlets, banners, sign boards, radio, TV and advertisements through print & electronic media. In addition to that farmers are made aware of the quality specifications and purchase system to facilitate the farmers to bring their produce conforming to the specifications. This information was given in a written reply by the Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Narendra Singh Tomar, in LokSabha on March 3, 2020.

he biggest bankers of India have stepped up to assure the customers of troubled private sector, Yes Bank. They believe that depositors’ money is in safe hands and the moratorium would not last for a period of one month. India’s biggest bankers include - Deepak Parekh, Aditya Puri, and Uday Kotak. While talking to the media, Deepak Parekh, the Chairman HDFC, said, “I think the RBI has taken a timely plan, since Yes Bank’s financial results were due on March 14”. He added that the moratorium would not last till April 3, 2020. The Executive Vice-Chairman and Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra Bank, Uday Kotak said, “I expect action in the next few days. Pretty confident this action under section 45 of the Banking Regulation Act will protect the customers of Yes Bank”. While Uday Kotak and Deepak Parekh claimed that the reaction of investors towards the Yes Bank stock was unnecessary and unwarranted, both the veterans instead asked depositors to patiently wait for the central bank and government to announce a plan which they believe will come in at the earliest. “I genuinely believe that the RBI and government are fully capable of bringing stability in the market and the financial sector is strong to facilitate that,” said Uday Kotak. Following the comments made by both the pioneers of India Inc, HDFC Bank Managing Director Aditya Puri said that he was sure that the restructuring will happen way before the moratorium end date. “Restructuring will happen way before April because that is in everybody’s interest,” Puri said in an interview on CNBC TV18. Puri went on to add that he believes that appropriate steps have been taken to enable money markets to function safely. Deepak Parekh said, “Our financial system is strong, one company going under does not shake up the Indian financial system. The way the public is reacting is as if it is the end of the world. But, it is a temporary overreaction.” When asked about the possibility of a private player stepping in with SBI to save Yes Bank, both Deepak Parekh and Uday Kotak said that the financial details of Yes Bank will have to be looked at for the same. “We as players in financial markets should look at what we can do and facilitate the restructuring of Yes Bank,” said Uday Kotak. Deepak Parekh did not say whether HDFC has been asked to step in with SBI in an effort to help Yes Bank stay afloat, but said that Yes Bank needs capital and it will get that capital with the system facilitating the revival. Earlier today, SBI Chairman Rajnish Kumar met the Finance Minister and said that the financial sector of the country is safe and Yes Bank is a bank-specific issue, not a sector-specific one.

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

In-Depth NATIONWIDE LOCKDOWN WAS HARSH, BUT MANDATORY:

PM MODI APOLOGIZES

oncern over his harsh and quick decisions that caused difficulties to the citizens, especially the poorer, Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, apologized to the sufferers, while reiterating the importance of the nationwide lockdown. He emphasized, the lockdown was the only way to beat back the Coronavirus.

PM Modi, while speaking in his monthly ‘Mann ki Baat’ radio address, explained the rationality of his decision to impose the 21-day lockdown. He also appealed the citizens to strictly abide by it and asked them to to use this period in enhancing emotional bonds with their families and friends. PM Modi asked them to interact with those who were infected by the virus or were in quarantine. It was the third time the PM was speaking to the nation in less than 10 days. In his first address, on March 19, he had alerted the country to the dangers of the pandemic and called for a “janta curfew” for a day on March 22. In his second address, on March 25, Modi announced the threeweek lockdown (except essential services) and advised people to stay home. The decision, acknowledged by experts as a necessary preventive measure, has disrupted economic activity and caused an exodus of migrant workers from cities towards their villages, often on foot — in the process enhancing the risks of spreading the disease. Prime Minister took into account precisely this situation at the beginning of his 35-minute address, and said: “I first want to apologize to the citizens of this country. We have had to take some decisions which have caused difficulties. Many people would be angry at me — and wonder how I have locked everyone at home. I understand your pain and difficulties”.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

PM added that he was confident he would be forgiven because there was no other way for a country of India’s size to battle the pandemic, which had, in a way, chained the entire world. He underlined that it was important to battle an illness at a nascent stage, for if it escalated, defeating it would become far more difficult. Stressing on the reports that those who had got infected, or were in quarantine, were facing a degree of stigma, the PM said that he was deeply pained to hear this. “This is deeply unfortunate. They are not criminals. In fact, they are staying in quarantine to protect others. They are displaying responsible behavior”. He also spoke about people who thought that by staying at home, they were doing a favor to others or did not understand the importance of social distancing. “Don’t be under any such illusion. With this lockdown, you are saving yourself, you are saving your own family...There are people who are still not understanding the gravity of the situation. If you break the rules of the lockdown, you will find it hard to save yourself from the virus.” The PM, as he had done in the previous two addresses, once again acknowledged the role of the front-line workers in this battle — doctors, paramedics, nurses, safai karamcharis, those who had kept the supply chain intact for essentials, those who had kept basic infrastructure running, those at the forefront of banking services and others. He then spoke to patients who had recovered from the infection — and who narrated the sequence of how they got infected, the process of getting tested, the hospital care they received — and to doctors — who spoke about how they were providing care specific to the disease as well as counseling to those infected and fearful of the future.

In-Depth

A FRESH HOPE OF RAYS

NIRBHAYA CASE CONVICTS FINALLY GET CAPITAL PUNISHMENT By Apurba Dasgupta

fter seven years and three months of the heinous crime and post series of legal wranglings, four Nirbhaya convicts - Akshay Thakur, Pawan Gupta, Vinay Sharma and Mukesh Singh were hanged to death at the Tihar Jail at 05:30 am on March 20, 2020. Capital punishment is a legal penalty in India. It has been carried out in five instances since 1995 while a total of 26 executions have taken place in India since 1991, the most recent of which was of Yakub Memon in 2015, who was convicted for his involvement over the 1993 Mumbai blasts case. Memon, the brother of Tiger Memon, another mastermind of the Mumbai bombings, was executed on July 30, 2015-also his birthday, in the Nagpur Jail.

Research published by National Law University, (NLW) Delhi, on death row convicts since 2000, had found that of the 1,617 prisoners sentenced to death by trial courts in India, capital punishment was confirmed in only seventy-one cases. NLU, Delhi confirmed 755 executions in India since 1947. The varsity examined 1,414 prisoners who were executed, in the available list of convicts hanged in post-Independence since 1947. According to a report of the Law Commission of India (1967), the total number of cases in which the death sentence was handed down in India from 1953-63 was 1410. In December 2007, India voted against a United Nations General Assembly resolution calling for a moratorium on the death penalty.

Before Yakub Memon, terrorist Mohammad Afzal Guru, convicted for the 2001 Parliament attack, was hanged on February 9, 2013, in Tihar Jail, Delhi.

In November 2012, India again upheld its stance on capital punishment by voting against the UN General Assembly draft resolution seeking to end the institution of capital punishment globally.

Another infamous- Ajmal Kasab, the Pakistani militant belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba, who was convicted for his involvement over the 2008 Mumbai terrorists attacks, faced the gallows on November 21, 2012, in Pune.

On August 31, 2015, the Law Commission of India submitted a report to the government which recommended the abolition of capital punishment for all crimes in India, excepting the crime of waging a war against the nation or for terrorism-related offences.

The Supreme Court in Mithu vs. State of Punjab case struck down Section 303 of the Indian Penal Code, which provided for a mandatory death sentence for offenders who committed murder whilst serving a life sentence.

The report cited several factors to justify abolishing the death penalty, including its abolition by 140 other nations, its arbitrary and flawed application and its lack of any proven deterring effect on criminals.

The number of people executed in India since the nation achieved Independence in 1947 is a matter of dispute; official government statistics claim that fifty-two people had been executed since Independence. However, research by the Peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Union for Civil Liberties indicates that the actual number of executions is in fact much higher, as they located records of 1,422 executions in the decade from 1953 to 1963 alone.

In Colonial India, death was prescribed as one of the punishments in the Indian Penal Code, 1860 (IPC), which listed a number of capital crimes. It remained in effect after independence in 1947. The first hanging in Independent India was that of Nathuram Godse and Narayan Apte in the Mahatma Gandhi assassination case on 15th November, 1949. (UNI)

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

Defence

MAJOR GEN BEJI MATHEWS TAKES OVER AS NCC’S 7TH ADG

ajor General Beji Mathews has on March 13, 2020 taken over as the 7th ADG NCC of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Chandigarh. The General Officer has served in varied terrain and appointments and holds mulatiple military academic qualifications. He has also served under various capacities in the States of Punjab, Haryana & Himachal Pradesh on earlier occasions. NCC Dte PH HP & C comprises of eight Group HQs which are located at Chandigarh, Ambala Rohtak, Amritsar, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Patiala and Shimla to co-ordinate activities of NCC. Under these groups there are 40 Boys Bns, 12 Girls Bns, 3 Remount & Veterinary Sqns, 6 Naval Units and 8 Air Sqns covering 1,50,361 sq kms in 56 districts. NCC Units under the Dte are imparting trg to a total of 1,25,480 cadets both boys and girls in 1896 colleges and schools. The NCC Directorate PH HP & C has the pride of having won the PM’s Championship Banner during year 2020 and the trophy was presented by the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, at the PM’s NCC Rally held at New Delhi on January 28, 2020.

WC OF INDIAN ARMY STEPS UP TO COMBAT COVID – 19

he Western Command of Indian Army is now all set to combat COVID-19 threat. This wing of Indian Army has initiated a series of preventive and precautionary measures.

Besides, some of the special protective equipments are being utilized by the medical staffs & decontamination squads. Meanwhile, decontamination vehicles have been provisioned within existing resources in most of the military stations/cantonments and buses have been specially modified with medical facilities to carry suspected/quarantine persons. All stations in Western Command premises have instituted social distancing and sanitization measures like offices, ration stores and other essential services.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

On the other hands, the Army Personnel has expeditiously undertaken various effective measures to prevent the outbreak of COVID-19 amongst its ranks & families across various cantonments / military stations in states of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and J & K. All the hospitals are adequately prepared with special wards to deal with COVID-19. Eight quarantine facilities with basic medical setup have been established in the area of responsibility. Besides the above, Western Command is undertaking all measures to preserve its own efficiency & continue to function diligently with due precautions in discharging its duty towards nation. Large number of retired armed forces medical staff has volunteered their services in Army Hospitals for fight against COVID-19. Services of the volunteers will be appropriately integrated into the response plans of Western Command. Army has named its Anti COVID- 19 efforts as ‘Operation Namaste’ and concerted efforts are being made to optimize all medical resources.

Defence

HEART WRENCHING TRUTH OF HINDUS/SIKH IN KABUL

n March 25, 2020, a Kabul based Gurdwara was bathed in blood. Altogether 25 devotees were hacked to death by bullets or blown up with explosives by Jihadis. Their undoing was their faith. It is not that Afghanistan’s history has not been embellished by Hindus and Sikhs, all through there has been a deep connect.

answer. It is indeed the Punjab CM who had initiated the resolution against the CAA in the State Assembly. Does the honorable CM suggest that they should go to Corona hit Europe or US? Should they go into the embrace of Khalistanis of Canada? Is the Canadian government waiting with open arms to welcome them? Will Pakistan extend the Kartarpur corridor bonhomie and accept them? If not, then it becomes abundantly clear that Kartarpur outreach by Pakistan is strategically devious. And what a sinister timing of the Gurdwara massacre! It was

As has been enshrined in our socio-religious texts, Afghanistan was a Hindu Rashtra in ancient times. The mother of Karauvs, Gandhari was from Kandahar, Bharat’s mother Kaikeyi was also from eastern Afghanistan. Before the Arab conquests began in 7th century BCE, in north east Afghanistan the Zorastrians were predominant, the Hindus in south and east, and Buddhists in south-east. The Brahmin Shahi kingdoms ruled the area around Kabul. It was during the rule of Mahmud of Ghazni (998-1030 BCE) that all Hindus were expelled. They all came to India. Guru Nanak had extensively preached in Afghanistan and a Gurdwara was built in Jalalabad to commemorate his visit. There are no more than ten gurudwaras and five temples standing in Kabul, Jalalabad and Ghazni. Seven of the eight Gurdwaras in Kabul were destroyed during the civil war that began in 1992. Many times in history, bigots and jihadis, forced the exodus of Hindus and Sikhs, and each time it was India which accommodated them because of the congenital pull and due to lack of natural and emotional blows. In Afghanistan Hindus and Sikhs share the same places of worship, so the attack on Gurdwara is an attack on Hindus as well. Only two years back, in 2018, a suicide bomber killed ten Sikhs in Kabul. It was a targeted killing. In the attack in Kabul Gurdwara, Tanya, barely four years old, the granddaughter of the head granthi, was killed at point blank range. Terrified, over imminent death, she kept plaintively calling her father. His spontaneous response was not forthcoming, because he was dead. He, along with Tanya’s mother had fallen to jihadi bullets. Amongst the survivors were Tanya’s 13 year old brother and 11 years old sister. They remained alive because they were in safe vicinity. They are now orphans. Orphaned are Afghanistan’s 850 Sikhs and Hindus, because the attack convinced them that the land of Afghanistan had decided to abandon them. The process had in fact begun in 1992 with the advent of mujahideen rule. From three lakh Hindus and Sikhs in Afghanistan then, negligible Hindus and 850 Sikhs remain. Now these remaining Sikhs say that living in Afghanistan, for them, has become an impossible proposition. But where do these Sikhs including Tanya’s orphan brother and sister go? The anti-CAA lobby and the Punjab CM must

In Afghanistan Hindus and Sikhs share the same places of worship, so the attack on Gurdwara is an attack on Hindus as well. perpetrated at a time when there is an ongoing unprecedented war between the World and invisible Coronavirus. It is the IS Khorasan that perpetrated the massacre in the Gurdwara (ISK), and ISK has direct links to the Popular Front of India (PFI). It was indeed the PFI which was controlling and coordinating the anti-CAA, rather anti-India protests in Shaheenbagh. The PFI through the hawala route funded anti-CAA movement. On 11 March the special cell of Delhi Police apprehended the Chairman (Pervez) and Secretary (Ilyas)of the PFI. They are accused of funding anti-CAA protests as well as violence. Earlier another counterintelligence PFI functionary, Danish was arrested. Danish monitored the activities of Intelligence agencies and the Police, and is believed to have played a key role in the brutal killing of IB operative. During the entire anti- CAA protests and violence, these PFI stalwarts were in constant communication with certain prominent persons, and the ED is believed to have complete record of these chains of conversations. In Kerela, radicalization has become an entrenched and flourishing industry with sophisticated links to global jihadi networks. It feeds both the PFI and the ISK, these conjoined jihadi outfits. In the Kabul Gurdwara massacre, one Mohd Mushin from Kasargod in Kerela killed Sikh devotees without any remorse. If global jihad in Afghanistan can turn a Keralaite into jihadi killer of Sikhs then the foreboding are ominous. Jihad does not brook cultural and national sentiments.

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

Industries

BEAUTY, WELLNESS MARKET TO GROW AT CAGR OF 18%

eauty, Wellness and Personal Care has now emerged as one of the fastest growing consumer markets especially in the area of Cosmetics and Skin Care segments.

Basic main reason its unparalleled growth is the generational shift with young consumers entering the market. On the other hands, the social media, e-Commerce and other such steps have also played a vital role in boosting this sector. These have an everlasting effect on buying behavior, when it comes to beauty products. In India, the beauty and wellness market is estimated to be $ 14 billion in 2019 and is anticipated to grow significantly at CAGR of 18%.

DEFENSE INDUSTRY RECEIVES $8.82 M FDI

he Defense industry of India has received foreign direct investment (FDI) of $ 8.82 million (Rs 51.93 crore) during December 2019 to April 2000 and December 2019, Parliament was informed on Wednesday. In 2018-19, FDI in the sector was aggregated at USD 2.18 million, according to the data provided by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal in a written reply to the Lok Sabha. Foreign fund inflows in retail trading stood at USD 2 billion during April 2000 and December 2019,

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Another prominent feature is that herbal beauty care has driven the growth of the beauty business in India. Going green has become the new anthem in the fashion and lifestyle categories and it’s not just designers who are promoting it in a big way through their collections, but cosmetic brands are also going eco-friendly with their range. With Indian Ayurvedic and beauty brands like Ayush are gaining ground internationally, spa treatments are also becoming more popular accounting for 31% of the beauty and wellness market. India’s wellness and beauty industry is progressing towards a brighter future with market potential to grow to Rs. 800 billion and is expected to create 7 million jobs. The ASSOCHAM has on February 28, 2020 organized an International Conference-cum-Awards on ‘Beauty & Wellness – India Opportunities’ at the premises of Hotel Le-Meridien in New Delhi. The main objective was to identify potential growth opportunities to innovate and disrupt in competitive white spaces in the beauty & wellness industry.

the data showed. The top countries from where India attracted maximum FDI during the period include Mauritius, Singapore, Japan, Netherlands and the US. The minister, in a separate reply, said total merchandise imports from China were USD 76.3 billion in 2017-18, which decreased to USD 70.3 billion in 2018-19. Total imports from China during 2019-20 (April-January) were USD 57.9 billion, he said. Trade remedial measures were taken against as many as 89 products like EVA sheets, electrical insulators and Flax yarn against China, the minister informed. In similar way, six countervailing measures and one safeguard steps has been taken against the neighboring country.

Industries

TRACTOR INDUSTRY ESCAPES UGLY IMPACTS OF COVID-19

f Industry experts are to be believed, the tractor industry of India may reach to a good position this year. The sector has escaped the debilitating effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. This industry barely depends on imports from China, as localization levels of critical parts like: sheet metal, engines and transmission gear, are 95% equipments that are almost prepared in India. The president of the farm equipment sector at Mahindra & Mahindra, the country’s largest tractor maker, Rajesh Jejurikar, said, “The supply of tractor parts has been normal with no impact, and growth in tractor sales in February of over 20% is a testimony to that”. He said, “The demand for tractors is also expected to strengthen on the back of a robust Rabi output and prevailing crop prices”.

PATNAIK INAUGURATES MULTICRORE INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS IN ODISSA

“C

oncerned over the industrial developments in the state, the Odisha Chief Minister, Naveen Patnaik, unveiled a multi-crore project. Besides, others the main projects comprised three industrial projects worth Rs worth Rs 5567.5 crore”. The groundbreaking ceremony of 23 industrial units across various sectors including Power & Renewable Energy, Metal & Metal Downstream, Food processing, Tourism, Fertilizer, Refinery, Petrochemical, Chemical & Plastics, Pharmaceuticals, Textile & Apparel was also performed. Minister for Energy, Industries, Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises, Dibya Shankar Mishra, senior bureaucrats of the Industries Department and the representatives of the 26 companies were among others present during the occasion. Addressing the audience, Patnaik said, “Odisha is fast emerging as the manufacturing hub of Eastern India and the state is developing into a manufacturing hub of South Asia”. Later, he congratulated all the companies and assured them of complete facilitation support from the state government. These projects will usher in the next era of industrial growth in the state and will contribute towards the vision of an industrially prosperous Odisha, he added. Industry and MSME Minister Dibya Shankar Mishra said investments in various sectors in the state have helped to propel industrial development. Hemanta Sharma, the secretary industries and MSME departments, said, “the state is now one of the most favored investment destination in the country owing to many geographical and environmental advantages and has become home to some of the well-known firms in the country”. He also said, Odisha has cornered almost 18% of the virgin investments drawn by all states and also edged past Maharashtra as the most attractive destination for investments during the April-September period of FY20.

Just like the automotive sector will move to the new Bharat Stage (BS) VI emission norms from April 1, the tractor industry is also gearing up to adopt the BS TRTractor EM-Emission (TREM) IV norms (for tractors over 50 HP) by October this year. The proposed switchover to BS TREM IV is likely to impact around 15% of current industry volumes in the near term, while the rest of the industry (tractors below 50 HP) will migrate to the new norms by October 2023. Vinay Raghunath, partner, auto sector, EY India said, “It will be interesting to see how OEMs manage the incremental cost of transition and how consumers react to the final price points that passed on to them”. The executive director, tractor manufacturer Sonalika Group, Raman Mittal said, “Looking at the farming eco-system, we feel it is important that the transition to TREM IV should be in a phased manner to enable the entire ecosystem to gear up other than authorized service centers, comprising local village level mechanics/ technicians”. Under the new norms, the major changes will be in the fuel injection system, exhaust aftertreatment for engines and the electronics mechanism, experts said.

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

Cover Story

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Cover Story

THE 10 DEADLIEST PANDEMICS BEFORE THE CORONAVIRUS T

he World Health Organization-WHO has declared Coronavirus outbreak that has spread to 114 countries as a Global Pandemic. The virus started spreading from the city of Wuhan (China) in December, but there is so far no end to the virus and it continues

to spread.

In its announcement, the WHO has asked all countries to take strict steps to fight the virus. It says that if all countries detect, test, isolate and handle the virus correctly then its path can be changed. This is not the first time that the WHO has declared a disease as a global pandemic. Earlier in 2009, H1N1 influenza was declared as global pandemic. The epidemic had killed more than 400,000 people. Scientists and medical researchers have for years have differed over the exact definition of a pandemic, but one thing everyone agrees on is that the word describes the widespread occurrence of disease, in excess of what might normally be expected in a geographical region. Cholera, bubonic plague, smallpox, and influenza are some of the most brutal killers in human history.= and outbreaks of these diseases across international borders, are properly defined as pandemic, especially smallpox, which throughout history, has killed between 300-500 million people in its 12,000 year existence. Let's look at 10 of these historically deadly pandemics that changed the world.

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

Cover Story

THE SPANISH FLU

THE BLACK DEATH

uring the Middle Ages, around the year 1330, an outbreak of bubonic plague arose in China. As it was one of the busiest trading nations in the world, it was only a matter of time before the disease made its way to Europe, as it was transmitted by rodents and flea bites. If we look at the history of the 13th-14th century, then the condition of Europe was not much better than other countries. The impact of natural disasters and diseases was the same in other countries, the same in Europe. Northern Europe was in the grip of food crisis around 1315 before the outbreak of the Black Death. In fact, after 1310, the weather of Europe had become increasingly uneasy. Due to this, farming was badly affected. In October 1347, a number of Italian merchant ships returned from a trip to the Orient and brought this deadly disease with them. It quickly spread across the European continent, and by August 1348, it had reached as far north as England and was now known as the Black Death due to the unusual black spots that appeared on the infected. On top of its virulence, the plague went on for five years, returning each spring when infected fleas awoke from their dormancy during the winter. The death toll was astounding, killing more than 25 million people, one third of Europe’s population. From 1346 to 1353 an outbreak of the Plague ravaged Europe, Africa, and Asia, with an estimated death toll between 75 and 200 million people. It was without a doubt one of the world’s worst pandemics, wiping out entire villages, families, and regions.

lso known as “la grippe,” the Spanish flu killed more people from 1918 to 1919 than all of World War I. It is considered one of the most devastating pandemics ever recorded. It was an unusual strain of influenza that targeted and infected people ages 20 to 40. Normal influenza affects the elderly. At the end of its reign of terror, it had affected the lives of 28% of the entire American population and had killed 675,000 people. The initial cases of Spanish flu in the US were reported in March 1918. Like now, the world was not connected at that time. We had to travel from one country to another by sea routes. Nevertheless, the disease spread rapidly. Immediately the epidemic reached remote areas of Alaska. Its havoc continued for almost two years. It is believed that the disease started with soldiers. At that time, the First World War was going on. This epidemic spread among the soldiers due to the dirt around the soldiers’ bunkers and when the soldiers returned to their respective countries, the disease spread there too. It is natural to raise the question that if the disease did not start in Spain, why it was named Spanish flu. One reason for this is that Spain was neutral in the First World War. It did not suppress the news of outbreak of disease. On the other hand the countries participating in the First World War suppressed the news thinking that it did not break the morale of the soldiers or the people. At the same time, they did not want to appear weak in the eyes of his enemies. Therefore, it was publicized in the media of Western countries as Spanish flu so that they do not get suspicious.

HIV/AIDS

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

On top of its virulence, the plague went on for five years, returning each spring when infected fleas awoke from their dormancy during the winter. The death toll was astounding, killing more than 25 million people, one third of Europe’s population. From 1346 to 1353 an outbreak of the Plague ravaged Europe, Africa, and Asia, with an estimated death toll between 75 and 200 million people. It was without a doubt one of the world’s worst pandemics, wiping out entire villages, families, and regions.

Cover Story

THE ANTONINE PLAGUE

lso known as the Plague of Galen, the Antonine Plague was an ancient pandemic that affected Asia Minor, Egypt, Greece, and Italy and is thought to have been either Smallpox or Measles, though the true cause is still unknown. This unknown disease was brought back to Rome by soldiers returning from Mesopotamia around 165AD; unknowingly, they had spread a disease which would end up killing over 5 million people and decimating the Roman army. Speaking of the fall of the Roman Empire, part of the reason for its steady decline was due to the Antonine Plague that flared up in 165 AD under the reign of Marcus Aurelius. The plague took a massive toll on the economy, wiping out government officials, military conscripts, and many others. It also changed the spiritual leanings of the Roman people, allowing monotheistic religions like Christianity and Mithraism to spread. The plague so weakened the Roman Empire that it has been thought that it contributed to the empire’s downfall in the 5th century AD. It was thought that the disease responsible was a strain of smallpox, but that has never been confirmed.

THE PLAGUE OF JUSTINIAN

TUBERCULOSIS

fter the fall of the Roman Empire, the biggest power in the ancient world in 527 AD was the Byzantine Empire. The emperor at the time was Justinian, an ambitious man who carried out a number of major building and military initiatives throughout his empire. Unfortunately, there was an outbreak of an unknown infectious disease that swept through the farming and building workforce, quickly racking up a significant body count. It is thought that the disease was a strain of bubonic plague so powerful that once infected, patients barely lasted five days. So many people died from the disease that there were not enough workers and farmers to make enough food for the rest of the empire, and a famine came about as a secondary problem from this incredibly dangerous disease. Generally regarded as the first recorded incident of the Bubonic Plague, the Plague of Justinian left its mark on the world, killing up to a quarter of the population of the Eastern Mediterranean and devastating the city of Constantinople, where at its height it was killing an estimated 5,000 people per day and eventually resulting in the deaths of 40% of the city’s population.

uberculosis has been and remains a worldwide pandemic that claims a life every 25 seconds. The World Health Organization estimates that 1.3 million people die every year from this disease. It is an infectious disease that attacks the respiratory system and other organs and destroys body tissue. It is usually transferred through the air by coughing or sneezing. It usually occurs in third world countries and is particularly destructive in areas of the world where HIV/AIDS is present, as it often causes fatalities in populations suffering from this autoimmune disease. The outbreak of TB is higher in low and middle income countries than in high income countries. TB is present in every part of the world. However, in the year 2014, Southeast Asia and Africa had the highest number of TB cases. The six countries with the highest burden of the disease were India, Pakistan, Indonesia, China, Nigeria, and South Africa. Although the route of tuberculosis infection is respiratory, and the main symptoms are respiratory, tuberculosis bacteria can spread and also infect other parts of the body, such as bones and brain. Untreated active tuberculosis can be fatal. In the year 2015 (human immuno-deficiency virus) -positive TB is a major killer of people, 1 in 3 HIV-related deaths were caused by TB. About 18% of people with active TB and HIV infection can die. Active TB infection can also be very life-threatening for young infants. They are more likely to develop serious complications from TB such as TB meningitis (infection of the lining around the brain). In 2014, about 1.5 million people, including 140,000 children, died of tuberculosis. About one-third of the world’s population has latent tuberculosis.

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

Cover Story

PLAGUE OF ATHENS

ASIAN FLU

sian flu was a particularly nasty strain of influenza A (also known as H2N2) that took the lives of around 70,000 people between 1957 and 1958. The frightening thing about this particular infectious disease is that it started very quietly, with only a few cases in the late spring early summer of 1957. Once the school year started, children going back to school quickly spread the disease to classmates, who then brought it home to their families. The disease first focused primarily on children, young adults, and pregnant women and was quickly identified due to advances in medical diagnostic testing, and in a few months, it seemed like the Asian flu was gone for good. Unfortunately, a second wave of the disease (which can sometimes happen during a pandemic) broke out, targeting the elderly. This second wave produced the most fatalities, but by the end of the year, the worst was finally over. The Flu originated in China in 1956 and lasted until 1958. In its two-year spree, Asian flu traveled from the Chinese province of Guizhou to Singapore, Hong Kong, and the United States. Estimates for the death toll of the Asian flu vary depending on the source, but the World Health Organization places the final tally at approximately 2 million deaths, 69,800 of those in the US alone.

n 430 BC, an infectious disease made its way through Athens, which unluckily was also under siege by Sparta (think the movie 300) during the Peloponnesian War. The epidemic lasted three years and infected most of the population of the city-state, an estimated 75,000 to 100,000 people. A quarter of the city’s population did not survive, and it was considered such a horrific disease that Athenians commissioned the famous historian Thucydides to carefully document the disease’s symptoms and progression to warn future generations about it. Even though this was done, what the actual disease was is a subject of intense debate as forensic anthropological data remains inconclusive.

CAMP FEVER

his illness is known by many names, including jail fever and war fever, but scientifically, it’s called typhus. It is an infectious disease that occurs due to unclean, overcrowded living conditions, and it is transferred from person to person by body lice. It has reared its ugly head throughout history, most notably during the Napoleonic Wars, the Irish Potato Famine, World War I in Russia, Poland and Romania, and in the concentration camps during World War II. It has been responsible for several million deaths, but now, it is much less common as hygiene standards have improved. About 10 days after being bitten, an infected person experiences headache, loss of appetite, malaise, and a rapid rise in temperature with fever, chills, marked prostration, and nausea. Four to six days after onset, a characteristic rash appears over most of the body; the sick person is flushed, and the eyes are bleary. The temperature reaches a maximum range by the end of the first week and is sustained until about the 12th day, when it generally falls rather rapidly, becoming normal in an uncomplicated course about the 14th to 16th day. Depression and weakness may be protracted during the recovery, and the patient’s convalescence is slow. If the disease is untreated, circulation becomes sluggish and there may be spots of gangrene on the fingers, genitals, nose, and ears. Signs of pneumonia or kidney failure are common. Prostration is progressive, and delirium and coma follow; cardiac failure may be the immediate cause of death. Tetracycline and chloramphenicol have a dramatic curative effect, however, and, if treated early enough, few die. The disease can be diagnosed clinically during epidemics and by laboratory tests.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Cover Story

10 SMALLPOX

mallpox had been regarded with a healthy amount of fear by Europeans for thousands of years, but it wasn’t until it was brought to the New World that this infectious disease became one of the most virulent pandemics. In 1633 and then again in the 1790s, smallpox brought by settlers from Europe ran rampant through Native American tribes in the Northeast, in some cases wiping out up to 70% of a tribe’s population at a time. The Native Americans did not have any immune response for the disease, which is why they were so susceptible. Thankfully, this disease has been all but eradicated; the most recent contracted case in the U.S. was in 1949. The history of smallpox holds a unique place in human health and medicine. One of the most deadly diseases known by humans, smallpox is also the only human disease that has been immunized by vaccination. Special symptoms of smallpox began with fever and lethargy, about two weeks after exposure to the virus. There was also usually a headache, a sore throat, and vomiting. After 2-3 days, the body temperature used to fall and the rashes on the face and body would come out, and later in the torso also emerged. Gradually, wounds began to form inside the mouth, throat and nose. Fluidfilled grains formed and spread, in some cases some grains became interconnected and spread to larger parts of the skin. In about the third week of the illness, the rashes began to form, separating from the skin.

It was only after Edward Jenner discovered in 1796 that people started using the vaccine that exposure to substances emanating from cowpox abscesses could protect people from smallpox. Jenner’s work eventually led to commercialization of the smallpox vaccine worldwide. Successful use of smallpox vaccine gradually reduced cases of smallpox. The last time smallpox was observed in Somalia in the year 1977. In 1980, the World Health Organization officially announced the eradication of smallpox. Java-terrorism is still present with the smallpox virus as a weapon. The World Health Organization has advised the laboratory to maintain vaccine supplies in the event of accidental virus release or bioterrorism.

SIDE-BAR MATERIAL What is Pandemic? Pandemic is an infectious epidemic that has spread from one place to many countries, continents or even worldwide. Any infectious disease is declared an epidemic when its outbreak spreads across a single country and spreads to many countries or continents. Coronavirus came out in Wuhan, China in December, but it was not seen as such a big contagious disease at that time, but from January onwards, the disease started spreading in another province of China and spread to many countries by the beginning of February. By mid-March, it has become an epidemic and has engulfed 114 countries of the world.

What is the difference between Pandemic and Epidemic? Epidemic also literally means Pandemic but its level is not as large.

Epidemic also carries the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, but these outbreaks occur mostly among regional or local populations and do not have much impact.

Why has the WHO declared Coronavirus to be Pandemic now? Actually, the virus started spreading outside China from January itself, but in other countries this virus was not spreading for a long time or in many people. Cases have occurred in some countries, which recover in a few weeks. At the same time, the initial cases were coming in such people, who had recently traveled to countries infected with the virus. But now in many countries this virus is spreading from humans to humans and cases are increasing continuously. In such a situation, WHO has now declared it as a global pandemic.

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

Cover Story

MYTH AND TRUTH ABOUT CORONAVIRUS

Once your hands are cleaned, you should dry them thoroughly by using paper towels or a warm air dryer.

ornoavirus has been creating havoc worldwide. Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases. A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.

UV lamps should not be used to sterilize hands or other areas of skin as UV radiation can cause skin irritation.

How effective are thermal scanners in detecting people infected with the new coronavirus? Thermal scanners are effective in detecting people who have developed a fever (i.e. have a higher than normal body temperature) because of infection with the new coronavirus. However, they cannot detect people who are infected but are not yet sick with fever. This is because it takes between 2 and 10 days before people who are infected become sick and develop a fever.

There are many rumours around about Coronavirus which have been terrifying the mass. Here, we attempt to answer few questions and bust myths about Coronavirus.

Does the new coronavirus affect older people, or are younger people also susceptible? People of all ages can be infected by the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Older people and people with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, and heart disease) appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus. WHO advises people of all ages to take steps to protect themselves from the virus, for example by following good hand hygiene and good respiratory hygiene.

Are antibiotics effective in preventing and treating the new coronavirus? No, antibiotics do not work against viruses, only bacteria. The new coronavirus (2019nCoV) is a virus and, therefore, antibiotics should not be used as a means of prevention or treatment. However, if you are hospitalized for the 2019-nCoV, you may receive antibiotics because bacterial co-infection is possible.

Are there any specific medicines to prevent or treat the new coronavirus? To date, there is no specific medicine recommended to prevent or treat the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV). However, those infected with the virus should receive appropriate care to relieve and treat symptoms, and those with severe illness should receive optimized supportive care. Some specific treatments are under investigation, and will be tested through clinical trials. WHO is helping to accelerate research and development efforts with a range or partners.

Can spraying alcohol or chlorine all over your body kill the new coronavirus?

Can pets at home spread the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV)? At present, there is no evidence that companion animals/pets such as dogs or cats can be infected with the new coronavirus. However, it is always a good idea to wash your hands with soap and water after contact with pets. This protects you against various common bacteria such as E. coli and Salmonella that can pass between pets and humans.

Do vaccines against pneumonia protect you against the new coronavirus? No. Vaccines against pneumonia, such as pneumococcal vaccine and Haemophilus influenza type B (Hib) vaccine, do not provide protection against the new coronavirus. The virus is so new and different that it needs its own vaccine. Researchers are trying to develop a vaccine against 2019-nCoV, and WHO is supporting their efforts. Although these vaccines are not effective against 2019-nCoV, vaccination against respiratory illnesses is highly recommended to protect your health.

Is it safe to receive a letter or a package from China?

Are hand dryers effective in killing the new coronavirus?

Yes, it is safe. People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.

No. Hand dryers are not effective in killing the 2019-nCoV. To protect yourself against the new coronavirus, you should frequently clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water.

Can an ultraviolet disinfection lamp kill the new coronavirus?

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

No. Spraying alcohol or chlorine all over your body will not kill viruses that have already entered your body. Spraying such substances can be harmful to clothes or mucous membranes (i.e. eyes, mouth). Be aware that both alcohol and chlorine can be useful to disinfect surfaces, but they need to be used under appropriate recommendations.

Can regularly rinsing your nose with saline help prevent infection with the new coronavirus? No. There is no evidence that regularly rinsing the nose with saline has protected people from infection with the new coronavirus. There is some limited evidence that regularly rinsing nose with saline can help people recover more quickly from the common cold. However, regularly rinsing the nose has not been shown to prevent respiratory infections.

Can eating garlic help prevent infection with the new coronavirus? Garlic is a healthy food that may have some antimicrobial properties. However, there is no evidence from the current outbreak that eating garlic has protected people from the new coronavirus.

Does putting on sesame oil block the new coronavirus from entering the body? No. Sesame oil does not kill the new coronavirus. There are some chemical disinfectants that can kill the 2019-nCoV on surfaces. These include bleach/chlorinebased disinfectants, solvents, 75% ethanol, peracetic acid and chloroform. However, they have little or no impact on the virus if you put them on the skin or under your nose. It can even be dangerous to put these chemicals on your skin.

Health ARTICLE

CORONA MIGHT NOT INFECTED FARMERS,

BUT AFFECTED LIVES

By Niraj Kumar & Anjani Kumar

f course, the covid-19 pandemic emerged as the biggest challenge to the thousands of crores of population across the world. Not only the health, instead it has affected the global economy at large. â&#x20AC;&#x153;The global economy has now entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the 2009 downturnâ&#x20AC;?, the IMF chief said. Several countries are working tirelessly to save their citizens through announcing the economic packages to keep their economies afloat. The panic from the outbreak is so intense that the supply chains of even the agriculture sector that provides food - the most fundamental need of every human being - have been curbed. The lockdown imposed in several countries is essential to maintain social distancing and help flatten the curve. While imposing these policies, overlooking the agriculture sector could turn out to be the biggest blunder. The impact of coronavirus on agriculture is already being felt. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index, which records monthly changes in the international prices of commonlytraded food commodities, averaged 180.5 points in February, 1% lower than in January. It is worth noting that the fall in food prices in February is the first recorded incidence in the last four months. The outbreak is likely to lead to worse news in the coming months for Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;smajor staple crop wheat. According to FAO, wheat prices were already fetching lower prices, partly due to the continued well-supplied markets. However, the negative impact on demand resulting from the spread of the coronavirus (which causes the covid-19 disease) has further contributed to the decline in prices. This is bad news for the Indian farmers when wheat production in the country this year is likely to have gone up to a record 106.21 million tonnes. The report suggests that the price of maize has also slumped primarily because of expectations of less demand from the feed sector. The prices in the Indian maize market are likely to further plummet. Reports of Bird Flu in some locations and the wrongly-held belief that eating non-vegetarian food can cause coronavirus further reduced the demand for maize for feed. Although the retail prices of perishable vegetables have gone up, the wholesale prices have fallen by 15-20% because of reduction in demand. The

The global economy has now entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the 2009 downturn

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

ARTICLE panic-buying and hoarding which resulted from the announcement of lockdown have pushed the prices of vegetables up by 2030%. This increase in price is attributed to logistics management. Price rise is not immediately alarming but the prices of perishable agri-products can increase after a fortnight or a month due to limited availability. Transactions at large mandis have been severely impacted due to the lockdown. The products are no longer being unloaded and redistributed to various places with the usual speed which is normally required to reach the vendors. For example, Azadpur Mandi in New Delhi, Asia’s largest mandi for fruit and vegetables, which receives 5,0008,000 trucks daily and does about 23,000 transactions per day, is not able to execute even 25% of its capacity. On the one hand, this creates a scarcity of fruit and vegetables in cities that depend on mandis for their supplies. On the other hand, the post-harvest losses increase significantly because of delayed handling and transaction. One can imagine the extent of loss now, when one knows that the total post-harvest loss in normal circumstances in India for fruits and vegetable is to the tune of 30%. Unfortunately, farmers, hundreds of kilometers away from the mandis, are unaware of what is going on in the mandis and they are bearing the brunt of the coronavirus outbreak.

The pandemic and the subsequent lockdown imposed are breaking the functional sequence of agricultural produce movement, that is, production – distribution – consumption. The pandemic and the subsequent lockdown imposed are breaking the functional sequence of agricultural produce movement, that is, production – distribution – consumption. The impact of trucks stranded with agricultural products is now being felt. However, this experience would be felt more widely during the next cycle when these trucks will not reach the stipulated farms where they are expected to transport the succeeding cycle of harvest. Reports from Madhya Pradesh are harrowing; farmers are ready to harvest wheat but there are no buyers. The situation is similar in Punjab where farmers have harvested and packed their produce, but arhatiyas (commission agents) are not ready to accept the produce and they are advising farmers to store their produce with themselves. Farmers in Bihar are ready with matured banana, but no transporter is ready to take their produce. The situation is likely to worsen in the coming days. We do not foresee an improvement in the status of mandis, farmers, and their products

during the forthcoming procurement season of wheat in the post-lockdown situation. There is uncertainty of the market closure and continuation of public procurement. Supply chain management, procurement, and distribution of agri-produce, to which farmers are generally not related, are affecting farmers the most. Although other players too are getting affected, the economic loss that the farmers must bear far outweighs the rest in the supply chain. Farmers may not have been infected by covid-19 but have certainly been affected through the disruption of the supply chain. The agriculture labour market has already been massively impacted. Not allowed to work in groups, 30 million agricultural labourers, who survive on their daily income, are without work. The situation has been aggravated in many parts of the country where there are specialized farm practices which are usually done by the manual labourers, who are migrant workers. The lockdown and the resultant return of these migrant labourers to their native villages are certainly going to affect agriculture adversely in the coming months. India lacks farm mechanization and about 60% of farm activities are still manually executed. Post-pandemic and once the lockdown is lifted, farmers still won’t have much respite. The outbreak of covid-19 is to be blamed for the ongoing situation, but if we continue to undermine agriculture and Indian farmers, the government will certainly be judged for their harrowing situation in due course of time. Historically, in times of crisis, the agriculture market becomes particularly volatile and a site of public protest and anger. A payment of Rs. 2,000 to the farmers by April is a welcome step. However, considering the losses to the farmers, it’s a paltry amount. We need to make arrangements to ensure the continuance of agricultural operations, to prevent the danger of food and nutrition insecurity. We need to take immediate measures to support the farmers for the continuity of uninterrupted agricultural movement. We cannot afford to wait for the lockdown to lift before initiating relief efforts.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

(First Published in livemint)

ARTICLE

FALLOUT

COVID – 19 UNEMPLOYMENT LOOMS LARGE ACROSS US, EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Deaths due to mounting Coronavirus pandemic grew with alarming speed in Spain, Italy and New York, one the most deadly hot spots in the United States. On the other hands, the outbreak has thrown more than 10 million people out of work in America in just a short span of two weeks, while more than a million people were found sick.

owever, the city workers are exerting their efforts to sanitize the streets so that they could help contain the spread of this deadly coronavirus across the region, especially in La Paz, Bolivia. Meanwhile, the public health crisis deepened in New York City, where one funeral home in a hard-hit neighborhood had 185 bodies stacked up — more than triple normal capacity. The city has seen at least 1,500 virus deaths. Various renowned persons came forward and started begging the families to take necessary precautions and insist hospitals hold their dead loved ones as long as possible.

France recorded a running total of about 4,500 deaths in hospitals, with 471 in the past day. But officials expect the overall toll to jump significantly because they are only now starting to count deaths in nursing homes and other facilities for older people.

Worldwide the number of reported infections hit another gloomy milestone — 1 million, with more than 53,000 deaths, according to a tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. But the true numbers are believed to be much higher because of testing shortages, many mild cases that have gone unreported and suspicions that some countries are covering up the extent of their outbreaks. In Span, on March 31, 2020, it was reported that a record one-day number of deaths, 950, bringing its overall toll to about 10,000, despite signs that the infection rate is slowing. Italy recorded 760 more deaths, for a total of 13,900, the worst of any country, but new infections continued to level off.

April 2020

The France Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, said he and his government colleagues were fighting hour by hour to ward off shortages of essential drugs used to keep COVID-19 patients alive in intensive care. As the death toll significantly grew, it all caused huge economic fallout. The new unemployment numbers however showed the outbreak has thrown 10 million Americans out of work in just two weeks in the swiftest, most stunning collapse the U.S. job market has ever witnessed. Almost, 90% of the U.S. population is under stay-at-home orders, and many factories, restaurants, stores and other businesses are closed or have seen sales shrivel. Economists warned unemployment would

OBSERVER DAWN

ARTICLE almost certainly top those of the Great Recession a decade ago and could reach levels not seen since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Laura Wieder, who managed to sports bar, laid off from her job during the third week of March in Bellefontaine, Ohio says, “My anxiety is through the roof right now, not knowing what’s going to happen”. The pandemic will cost the world economy as much as $4.1 trillion, or nearly 5% of all economic activity, the Philippines-based Asian Development Bank. Over a million people in Europe are estimated to have lost their jobs over the past couple of weeks. Spain alone added more than 300,000 to its unemployment rolls in March. But the job losses in Europe

appear to be far smaller than in the U.S. because of countries’ greater social safety nets. The government said it would provide an additional 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) to local banks to lend at preferential rates to small- and medium-sized businesses that provide the bulk of employment. With more than 245,000 people infected in the U.S. and the death toll topping 6,000, sobering preparations were underway. The Federal Emergency Management Agency asked the Pentagon for 100,000 body bags because of the possibility funeral homes will be overwhelmed. White House Coronavirus task force coordinator, Dr. Deborah Birx said U.S. infection data suggest Americans need to emulate those European nations that have started to see the spread of the virus slowing through strict social distancing. The Trump administration was formalizing new guidance to recommend Americans wear coverings such as non-medical masks, T-shirts or bandannas over their mouths and noses when out in public and preserve medical masks for those on the front lines.

But there are still shortages of critical equipment, including masks, in Europe and the U.S. Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned that New York could run out of breathing machines in six days. He complained that states are competing against each other for protective gear and breathing machines, or are being outbid by the federal government. Trump invoked the Defense Production Act in hopes of boosting production of medicalgrade masks by Minnesota-based 3M to assist first responders. Washington is also trying to crack down on a growing black market for protective medical supplies. Nine leading European university hospitals warned they will run out of essential medicines for COVID-19 patients in intensive care in less than two weeks. For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. But for others, especially older adults and people with health problems, it can cause severe symptoms like pneumonia. In a sign of the outbreak’s impact on the U.S. military, the captain of a Navy aircraft carrier facing a growing outbreak of the virus was fired by Navy leaders, who said he created a panic by sending his memo pleading for

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

The pandemic will cost the world economy as much as $4.1 trillion, or nearly 5% of all economic activity, the Philippinesbased Asian Development Bank. Over a million people in Europe are estimated to have lost their jobs over the past couple of weeks. help to too many people. Navy Secretary Thomas Modly says the ship’s commander, Navy Capt. Brett Crozier, “demonstrated extremely poor judgment” in the middle of a crisis. The world’s most vulnerable, aid workers were bracing for a possible outbreak among more than 1 million Rohingya Muslim refugees living in cramped camps in Bangladesh. And in a move likely to anger China, officials from the U.S. and Taiwan, the island claimed by Beijing as its own territory, held a virtual meeting to discuss ways of increasing Taiwan’s international participation, particularly in the World Health Organization from which it is excluded at China’s insistence. The US President, Donald Trump, along with other representatives and senior US officials has though come up with their fresh strategies to contain the virus and normalize the situation. However, the US authorities are somehow success in managing the situation.

Health

UNPRECEDENTED HEALTH BENEFITS OF DATES Eating Dates offer Quick, Long and Sustainable Energy

consuming 7 dates 21 days showed improvements in stool frequency, apart from sudden increase in bowel movements.

Experts believe that dates contain natural sugars, glucose, fructose and sucrose that often give us a quick burst of energy when we need. Unlike energy bars or drinks, dates contain other healthy components like fiber, potassium, magnesium, vitamins and antioxidants keeping us energetic and refreshed

Date Treats Hemorrhoids

Minimize Risk of Colon Cancer Dates make us sure that the gut itself is healthy and free from harmful bacteria. Besides, it protects food moving through the digestive system at a healthy rate. When the digestive system and gut work well, it reduces the risk of colon cancer. A study conducted by the Department of Food and Nutritional Sciences found that those often consume dates had enhanced colon health because dates increased the growth of good bacteria, inhibiting the growth of colon cancer cells.

Dates Improve Digestive System Dates are just the thing that helps you improve your digestive system. In just a one cup serving or dates, one gets almost 12 grams of fiber. It means about 48% of oneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s recommended intake a day. The right amounts and right kinds of fiber can benefit your digestive health by preventing constipation and promoting regular bowel movements. Dates are most definitely the right kind of fiber to do the job. In a report published in the British Journal of Nutrition, it was found that those

There are several foods and beverages that may provide you with ultimate health benefits. But eating dates may be somewhat exciting. The facts finding revealed that if you eat 3- Dates a day at least for a week, it is more likely to offer you following benefits

April 2020

Eating dates may benefit in treating Hemorrhoids, which are veins in anus and rectum that have become inflamed and swollen. This is often caused by constipation that leads to strain in that area at the far end of the digestive tract. This is a terrible and often very painful condition that fortunately can be treated and even reversed through a change in diet to reduce constipation.

Dates turn you Smarter It contains Vitamin B6 that has been shown to improve performance of brain by helping the body make serotonin and norepinephrine. Serotonin in turn regulates mood and norepinephrine helps your body cope with stress. Conversely, research has shown that a low level of Vitamin B6 is linked to depression.

Dates cure a broken heart Sometimes all it takes is several dates in a row over a long period of time to cure a broken heart. Researchers say that dates contain Potassium. It has been found lowering LDL (bad cholesterol) that causes blockage in the arteries leading to stroke and even heart attack. A study of older women found that high potassium intake is associated with a lower risk of stroke and ischemic stroke and mortality.As such, Date is suggested to lead a long lasting, healthy and happy.

OBSERVER DAWN

Health

FOODS THAT MAKE YOUR SKIN HEALTHY 1. Sweet Potatoes

2. Tomatoes

hese are one of the richest sources of beta-carotene that keeps our skin healthy by acting as a natural sunblock. It helps in preventing sunburn that mostly dry our skin and cause cell death. It also creates wrinkles and increases risk of skin cancer.

his is one of the best foods to eat for our skin or several other reasons. The first is that they contain most of the major carotenoids like: beta-carotene, lutein and lycopene that play pivotal roles in protecting skin from sun damage. Tomatoes also contain a good amount of vitamin C, the deficiency of which may cause scaly skin.

Surprisingly consuming beta-carotene also creates a warm, orangey tone in oneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s skin making it a vital nutrient and a cosmetic.

We often think about foods that either ease or benefit our body, especially the internal organs, but we mostly ignore the kind of foods that can benefit ourâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; skin, the largest organ of human body. Significantly, there are several common foods important to skin health. These foods not only maintain the external glow, instead these also strengthen the largest organ of human body. Apart from being antiageing, these foods add values to our skin.

Cocoa powder that contains high quantities of antioxidants often make your skin thicker, apart from moisturizing it

3. Dark Chocolate Recent studies on the use of Dark Chocolate have revealed that eating cocoa powder that contains high quantities of antioxidants often make your skin thicker, apart from moisturizing it. As such, regular consumption of cocoa means skin will be less rough and helps resist sunburn longer. It will also receive better blood flow, which in turn brings more nutrients to the skin. In order to reap the benefits, besides avoiding too much added sugar, people are recommended to use dark chocolate with over 70% cocoa.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Health 6. Red Wine

t contains a compound, called resveratrol, normally acknowledged to reduce the effects of aging all over the body. It boosts the youthfulness of skin. Red wine can reduce production of free radicals that are infamous to damage skin cells, hence causing premature aging. Now, there are negatives to drinking alcohol that may not outweigh the benefits of resveratrol, mainly because one glass of red wine cannot offer utmost benefit to any individual that can make a difference. But when it is consumed on regular interval, as suggested by an expert health official, it can be the healthiest choice. It must be mentioned here that resveratrol comes from the skin of red grapes, and hence one can get the similar benefit from these fruits too. Significantly, plant-based foods along with a small amount of lean meat always provide us with the most comprehensive range of vital nutrients. These nutrients together, work to protect our skin from sun damage, harmful free radicals and common skin disorders.

4. Walnuts

t contains an adequate ratio of essential fatty acids - Omega-3s and Omega-6s. These acids cannot be produced by body itself. Both of these contain a modest amount of the antioxidants vitamin E, vitamin C and selenium, apart from 4â&#x20AC;&#x201C;5 grams of protein per ounce. The one ounce will also get you 6% of your RDI for zinc that often aids in skin healing as well as fighting bacteria and inflammation. These good stuffs make walnuts an excellent choice to add to salads, casseroles, baked goods or yogurt.

7. Broccoli

his is a fantastic among other foods, comprising adequate vitamins and minerals, like: zinc, vitamin A and vitamin C. Broccoli also contains enough quantities of lutein, which is a carotenoid similar to beta-carotene, hence protecting skin from the oxidative damage that often that causes dryness and wrinkling. Among few other significant features, broccoli contains a special compound called â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Sulforaphaneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;. It has been shown to reduce the occurrence of some kinds of skin cancer. Sulforaphane also neutralizes free radicals and triggers the body to activate other protective systems.

5. Fatty Fish

xperts say that fatty fish, including salmon, mackerel and herring, are rich in omega-3 fatty acids, crucial to both skin and cardiovascular health. Normally the kind of diets that are strong in omega-3 fatty acids, keeps skin thick, supple and moisturized. Omega-3s reduce inflammation, often complicit in redness and acne, and reduce sensitivity to UV rays from the sun. As such, by blocking such inflammations, it helps us fight back autoimmune disorders that affect the skin, like psoriasis and lupus. The fatty fish also contains a lot of vitamin E, that is considered important for protecting the skin from damage by free radicals, and zinc, which supports production of new skin cells.

8. Avocados It contains adequate quantities of healthy fat, which are important to keep skin flexible and moisturized. In a research study conducted on the diets of over 700 women, it was found that a high intake of the types of healthy fats found in avocados, which tend to produce more supple and springy skin. Further, early evidence points to certain compounds in avocados that may protect the skin from sun damage. Avocados are also a good source of both vitamin E and vitamin C, which work very well together to create collagen and protect against oxidative damage. Significantly, plant-based foods along with a small amount of lean meat always provide us with the most comprehensive range of vital nutrients. These nutrients together, work to protect our skin from sun damage, harmful free radicals and common skin disorders.

Entertainment

‘BEING AN INDIAN’ IS THE ONLY RELIGION IN INDIA: AKSHAY KUMAR film teased Akshay as Sooryavanshi. The actor said the film’s story doesn’t view the world through the lens of religion. “I don’t believe in any religion. I only believe in being Indian and that is what the film also shows. The idea of being an Indian and not about being a Parsi or a Hindu or a Muslim, we haven’t looked at it on the basis of the religion”, Akshay said. When asked if the film is more relevant in current times of communal unrest in the country, the actor said, “It is a coincidence, we haven’t made it deliberately (now). But, yes, it is very much a relevant film today”.

“T

here is only one religion and that is - being an Indian. My upcoming film Sooryavanshi reflects the same sentiments”, says the renowned Bollywood actor, Akshay Kumar. Sooryavanshi has been directed by Rohit Shetty, is the latest movie in the filmmaker’s cop universe. The franchise, which started in 2011 with Ajay Devgn’s Singham series, was announced last year with the release of Simmba, starring Ranveer Singh. The climax of the 2019

The 52-year-old actor plays Veer Sooryavanshi, an ATS officer, entrusted with the responsibility to protect Mumbai from terror attacks. As an artiste one is expected to be responsible towards the society, but Akshay said his job is to play the character, good or bad, with sincerity. “We make films which have negative and positive roles, I am just playing a character. In every film there will be both good and bad characters, the audience is smart enough to understand what to take back from the film - the good or the bad”. This movie marks Akshay and Rohit’s first project together and the actor said he had great time working on this film.

AISHWARYA RAI BACHCHAN POSES WITH DAUGHTER, ARADHYA, IN INSTAGRAM

enowned Bollywood actress and one of the most beautiful women of the world, Aishwarya Rai Bachchan, has once again made her presence felt in the social media. Now she took to Instagram to share pictures from the Bachchan family’s Holi celebrations on March 10, 2020. The actress’ pictures showed she was posing with her daughter, Aaradhya Bachchan, wearing a look of Holi bonfire in the background. Aishwarya captioned her post, “Happy Holi to All. Love n Light. She added a heart and star emoji to her caption as well. The first picture shows Aishwarya and Aaradhya smiling for the camera, with Aaradhya wearing a pink dress. Aishwarya has a ‘tika’ on her forehead. The next couple of pictures from the post show a magnificent bonfire, blazing away. The post has been ‘liked’ over half-a-million times. Her fans took the opportunity to wish her and the Bachchan family a happy Holi. Several fans left fire emojis in the comments section as well. Aishwarya often shares pictures of her family on social media. Her most recent post featuring husband Abhishek and their daughter came on February 15. She also shared several pictures of the entire family, including father-in-law Amitabh Bachchan and mother-in-law Jaya Bachchan on Abhishek’s birthday on February 5. In November, Aishwarya had shared a picture with her own mother, Brinda Rai, and Aaradhya, posing together. “Love you eternally,” she’d written in the caption. Bollywood kickstarted its Holi celebrations this year with the Ambanis’ grand bash over the weekend, which saw everyone from actor Priyanka Chopra and her singer husband Nick Jonas to Vicky Kaushal and Katrina Kaif in attendance.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Entertainment

IIFA 2020 POSTPONED IN WAKE OF COVID – 19

n the wake of the scare of recent coronavirus attacks, the International Indian Film Academy Awards 2020 (IIFA) has been postponed. This award function was scheduled to be held in March end in Indore, Madhya Pradesh. The organizers have said they will soon announce a fresh date. “With due regard to the growing concerns over the spread of COVID-19 virus and keeping the health and safety of the concerned persons, the IIFA management and stakeholders from the film industry have decided to postpone the much-awaited IIFA Weekend and Awards 2020 celebrations. The program was scheduled at the end of March 2020”, an official statement from the IIFA organizers said.

“A fresh date and plans for hosting IIFA in Madhya Pradesh will be announced at the earliest. IIFA is fully committed to ensure the safety of the citizens and legions of IIFA fans who travel from across the globe to attend and experience the magic of IIFA.We sincerely regret the inconvenience caused, and hope that all concerned understand the sensitivity of the situation,” it further stated. After a pre-event, scheduled for March 21 in Bhopal, the actual threeday IIFA 2020 was set to take place in Indore from March 27 to 29. Recently, Deepika Padukoen cancelled her Paris trip due to coronavirus scare. “Deepika Padukone was scheduled to travel to France to attend Louis Vuitton’s FW2020 Show at the ongoing Paris Fashion Week but she had to cancel the trip due to the worsening of the coronavirus situation in France,” her official spokesperson said.

IRFAN KHAN’S ANGREZI MEDIUM TO BE RE-RELEASED

rfan Khan’s Angrezi Medium is likely to be re-released in Kerala, Delhi and Jammu and Kashmir, where cinema halls will be shut till March 31, 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak. On March 12, 2020 it was announced that cinema halls and schools will be shut in several regions as an effort to prevent the highly-contagious virus from spreading. “Angrezi Medium has been a journey I shall cherish all my life. The one thing I’ve learnt from its making is that whatever be the obstacle, if we pour our heart and soul into something, the universe will have our back. As the film now reaches India, we have already received unabashed love from Dubai and other international territories. Due to unforeseen circumstances it will however not release in Kerala, Delhi and Jammu & Kashmir. We hope for the same affection and support you’ve been giving us since day one. Our movie will reach these places when the time is right, but rest assured, just like Irrfan said, ‘wait for us’,” said the film’s producer Dinesh Vijan. Meanwhile, the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC) has suggested several cuts in Angrezi Medium including one where abusive word “**utiya” was replaced with “Bhutiya”. The film has a reel time of more than two hours, and has undergone six

changes before releasing with the U (Unrestricted) certificate. Here is a look at the changes suggested by CBFC. A “vulgar hand gesture shot” was replaced with one without the visual as the dialogue”, Iss tarah se ungali karenge…” was retained. Another visual of footwear thrown at the judge was replaced with judge’s reaction without any footwear hitting him at.

April 2020

OBSERVER DAWN

Incredible India

COFFEE & TEA

TOUR OF INDIA

ea and espresso are two of the most famous beverages on the planet, and India is at the very heart of the creation of these universal refreshments. The nation is the biggest exporter of tea on the planet, and it stays a colossal piece of the way of life. Espresso is the upstart on the Subcontinent, strength cafés are getting perpetually predominant in India, in an enormous part in view of the great espresso delivered here. The development of tea in India has a long history!!! India is one of the biggest tea delivers on the planet, however, 70% of the tea is devoured in India itself. India has increased high notoriety all through the world for its tea estates primarily in Assam, Darjeeling, Kerala, Dooars, Nilgiri. The Indian tea industry has developed to its own tea image and has advanced into one of the most mechanically prepared tea industry on the planet. Travelers from around the world visit these places to explore and experienced the live tea & Coffee productions.

The Indian tea industry has developed to its own tea image and has advanced into one of the most mechanically prepared tea industry on the planet.

TATA TEA MUSEUM, MUNNAR (KERALA)

ata Tea industry holds a record to create the second biggest tea on the planet. Around 2 km from Munnar, the KDHP Museum, prominently known as Tata Tea Museum, is situated in the Nallathanni Estate of Tata Tea. This historical center is known for lodging an arrangement of old articles, out of which the most famous is the entombment urn that was unearthed from the zone of Periakanal Estate. This urn can be gone back to the second century AD. The historical center is known to show the narrative of Munnar that how it was changed from an abandoned real estate parcel to a broad manor town. Photos and old machines that were utilized in tea preparing can be seen in plain view. The exhibition hall additionally has a tea tasting unit serving a few flavors and assortments of tea. Another intriguing show is Rotorvane, an old tea roller that was utilized in the CTC type tea handling. The headway that came in the assembling and preparing of tea can be unmistakably observed here. Guests can likewise observe the ‘Pelton Wheel’, utilized in the 1920’s at a force age plant at Kanniamallay Estate. Foundation advancement at this tea-creating focus in the nation can plainly be taken note.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Incredible India

COFFEE PLANTATION, THE PEPPER TRAIL, KERALA

DARINGBADI, ODISHA

t is a beginner when contrasted with the conventional espresso developing regions in India. Encompassed by thick woodlands, Daringbadi’s area guarantees that your espresso campaign will transform into a wilderness safari. There are two espresso and dark pepper ranches here, which are kept up by the area’s timberland office. This delightful locale is talented with thick pine wildernesses, long espresso gardens, glorious Mountain and astonishing valleys. Daringbadi offers cool atmosphere, scene magnificence, profound thick woodland, Tribal individuals and charming condition, still unexplored and immaculate. Koraput area in Orissa is somewhere else known for its most exchanged wares, the rich espresso manor. Chikhaldara slope station is the main espresso developing zone in Maharashtra and the sole slope resort in the Vidarbha locale at an elevation of 1118 m.

he Pepper Trail Heritage Plantation Retreat is found 10 kilometers from the town of Sultan Bathery in Wayanad, Kerala, India. The retreat is 10 kilometers off NH 212. Set at the core of a provincial manor, the Pepper Trail is encompassed by the tropical downpour timberlands of Wayanad and helps the visitors to remember the time passed by. The settings and the emotions encompassing this territory is clear to bring the visitors into an alternate land. The Pepper Trail Heritage Plantation Retreat’s Tree House is one of a kind for being based on monster jack organic product trees, at a stature of 40 feet over the ground. These glorious, 770 square feet tree houses can be gotten to just through raised walkways twisting through espresso trees.

DARJEELING TEA

orld acclaimed tea gardens, Darjeeling is been named as champagne of Teas. A tea darling can be excited with the lovely gardens and electrifying scenes. Darjeeling has numerous tea homes including Glenburn, Makabari and Happy Valley; one can see the procedure of tea developing and culling and a portion of the locale’s best blends. For an individual driven by tea, one should take advantage of it by visiting the tea industrial facility.

UPBEAT VALLEY TEA ESTATE

t is situated in the beautiful slope with an elevation of 6,300 feet. The elevation itself is an or more point for the upbeat valley tea home as more often than not the valley is in stay under front of mountain fog which makes a one of a kind impact on the tea manor and offers an exceptional flavor

to its tea. The tea garden is well known for the preeminent nature of tea in Darjeeling. Upon appearance appreciate strolling through the tea garden on the delicate slope slant and have a look at the tea handling. Visit the manufacturing plant and see the whole tea generation process.

ASSAM TEA

t is dark tea created by enormous leaved tea plants. The world’s biggest tea-developing locale is arranged on the incomparable Brahmaputra River and gets a high destruction during the storm. The tropical atmosphere of Assam gives an interesting component to its tea, a malty taste for which this tea is notable on the planet. Locale of Cachar, marshes of Assam and Barak Valley are additionally delivered little amounts of green and white teas. Assam is the main district with local tea plants in India and second on the planet after the southern area of China.

April 2020

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Int’l Biz

CHRISTINE LAGARDO MAKES HER MARK ON ECB

athered in a German mountain castle last November for an evening retreat that ended with a whiskeytasting, rebel European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers and Christine Lagarde, their newly confirmed president, made a pact. Lagarde pledged to spend more time listening, and not to front-run decisions before policymakers had weighed in, as her predecessor Mario Draghi was often accused of doing. In return, she asked for discipline from the Governing Council, the ECB’s top policymaking body, which comprises national central bank chiefs from the 19 euro zone countries and six Executive Board members, including Lagarde herself. Governors had to stop trashing policy decisions once taken and keep internal disputes out of the media, presenting a common external front, 11 sources — both critics and supporters of the ECB’s last, controversial stimulus package — told Reuters. A look at her first three months in office suggests Lagarde is using the entente of Schlosshotel Kronberg to make subtle but significant changes at Europe’s most powerful institution.

“ The c ha n ge is cu lt u ral b u t q u it e profound,” one of the sources, who asked not to be named, told Reuters. “Culture

“The change is cultural but quite profound,” one of the sources, who asked not to be named, told Reuters. “Culture drives how we make decisions so it impacts policy.” drives how we make decisions so it impacts policy.” A greater emphasis on consensus has boosted the Governing Council’s role and given more voice to critics like Germany whose support may be vital whenever the next downturn comes, most of the sources, all with direct knowledge of the inner workings of the ECB, said. But Lagarde has also made clear that Draghi’s disputed September stimulus package will not be revisited, and has kept on his key aides, architects of the plan. In Europe, the role of ECB president is uniquely powerful: backed by the Governing Council, she or he is the face and voice of the institution, carrying its message to businesses and households and to world leaders. The ECB and Lagarde declined to comment. Draghi did not respond to a

request for comment. Meetings now start several hours earlier, leaving more time for deliberation and giving policymakers time to speak. Lagarde mostly presides over the debate, many of sources said, talking relatively little herself and keeping her own views quiet to foster open debate. “When governors talk, she listens. That doesn’t sound like a big deal but Mario was often on his phone or iPad,” a second source said. “Madame Lagarde tells people to put their phones away.” Meeting proposals are now handed to governors up to a week in advance, some of the sources added, not just hours before for fear of leaks. These changes have shifted power away from the close circle of advisers that Draghi relied on and given Governing Council members more capacity to shape the debate, reducing the need to bring disagreements into the open. All of the sources said they consider Draghi — known as ‘the man who saved the euro’ — a superb central banker. But his willingness to forego consensus — as in September, when he pushed through the new stimulus package despite strong opposition — annoyed some policymakers, prompting open dissent. In another sign the peace is holding, Governing Council members have largely accepted Lagarde’s request not to publicly discuss the substance of the ECB’s wideranging policy review.

AIRLINES LIKELY TO MAKE DRASTIC REDUCTIONS IN FLYING SCHEDULES

he Airlines around the globe has announced that they will make more drastic reductions to their flying schedules, cut jobs and seek government aid after countries further tightened

border restrictions due to the fast spreading coronavirus. The United Airlines Holdings Inc booked $1.5 billion less revenue in March than the same time last year and warned employees that planes could

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

be flying nearly empty into the summer, even after severe flight cuts. It said the United would cut corporate officers’ salaries by 50% and reduce flight capacity by about 50% in April and May, with deep

capacity cuts also expected into the summer travel period. The United Chief Executive, Oscar Munoz, and President, Scott Kirby, said in a memo to employees on March 15, 2020, “This crisis is moving really quickly”. Things worsened over the weekend as Spain declared a state of emergency, the Trump administration added Britain and Ireland to its list of countries facing travel curbs, and Australia and New Zealand said all travelers would have to self-isolate for 14 days. “We call on Congress and the White House to take all measures available to protect the health and payroll of American workers,” said

Int’l Biz “Christine knows her limitations on monetary policy and knows that she needs to preside over the debate and not dominate it,” a fourth source said. “She is more presidential.”

with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Their support could be vital as the ECB’s depleted policy arsenal puts the onus on governments to drive growth. In her first speech in charge, Lagarde praised German ex-finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, a stern ECB critic. “They listened to Draghi during the crisis but not so much when things were going well,” a fifth source said. “She’s on friendly terms with von der Leyen and essentially has an open line to her. Mario never had this with (former Commission chiefs) Barosso or Juncker.” Colleagues said Lagarde’s charm and approachability contrasted with the more aloof Draghi. She takes the staff elevators inside the ECB tower, asks people’s names and happily chats to colleagues.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane continues to lead policy discussions, given the necessary space by Lagarde, a former International Monetary Fund chief and a lawyer by training who lacks the monetary policy expertise of her predecessors.

“The number of phone calls did not suddenly increase” between Lagarde and Merkel, a separate source in Berlin said, although the two have known each other for over a decade and have their conservative politics in common.

But the former French finance minister i s a r u t h l e s s t i m e k e e p e r, k e e p i n g meetings on schedule and often reminding people to keep their messages short and to the point.

“Christine knows her limitations on monetary policy and knows that she needs to preside over the debate and not dominate it,” a fourth source said. “She is more presidential.”

The strategic review Lagarde launched last month could be transformational for the ECB, bringing tweaks to the “below but close to 2%” inflation target and more tolerance for deviation, although at the risk of irritating the hawkish Germans.

“In one (European Systemic Risk Board) meeting, when a speaker ran out of time and pleaded for leniency, she said sorry, we need to move on, and that was it,” a third source said.

Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight AttendantsCWA, which represents 50,000 U.S. flight attendants at 20 airlines, including United. CAPA Centre for Aviation, an airline analysis and consulting firm, said most airlines globally will be bankrupt by the end of May without coordinated government and industry action to avoid such a catastrophe. “Demand is drying up in ways that are completely unprecedented,” CAPA said in a report. “Normality is not yet on the horizon.” U.K. airlines called on the British government to help ensure their survival, while Germany’s Tui AG and Scandinavian carrier SAS said

Former colleagues at the IMF describe her as a tough negotiator whose strength was consensus-building. Regarded as more politically adept than Draghi, Lagarde is said to be on cordial terms

they would suspend the vast majority of operations due to the COVID-19 outbreak and apply for government support. Icelandair Group hf said it was cutting capacity and working with labour unions to reduce its salary cost “significantly”. Air New Zealand Ltd said job

“We call on Congress and the White House to take all measures available to protect the health and payroll of American workers,”

But her desire for the ECB to take a bigger role in fighting climate change could bring early challenges to Lagarde, who joked in a meeting last year that Draghi “left big shoes to fill ... but I have high heels”.

losses would be necessary as it cut long-haul capacity by 85% over the coming months. “We are now accepting that for the coming months at least Air New Zealand will be a smaller airline requiring fewer resources, including people,” Air New Zealand Chief Executive Greg Foran said in a statement. The airline has halted trading in its shares until March 18, 2020. Qantas Airways Ltd said it would be making fresh cuts to its flying schedule beyond the 25% reduction in international capacity announced last week due to the new travel restrictions.

April 2020

UBS analysts said the latest travel restrictions would have a significant effect on Qantas’ international traffic, which historically accounted for around 45% of revenue and 25% of earnings before interest and tax. “A downside scenario where international traffic is down 50% for a whole year and domestic down 30% could result in cash burn of up to A$200 million ($123.60 million) per month after incorporating changes to the business,” UBS said of Qantas. Smaller rival Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd, which has a weaker balance sheet but a heavier domestic focus, said it was assessing its response to the new travel restrictions.

OBSERVER DAWN

Int’l Biz

EYING ON TRADE, SPAIN CONTINUES DEFENSE AHEAD OF US VISIT

rancha Gonzalez, Spanish Foreign Minister, on March 11, 2020 said Spain is not dangling its defense cooperation with the United States as leverage in its push against tariffs on European products. Ahead of his US visit on March 11, 2020, the Foreign Minister also said that it has aimed to end the loss of business by Spanish producers of wine, olives and their oil. But Arancha González Laya said both defense and trade — including the one-billion-dollar (930 million euros) worth of Spanish exports hit by last year’s U.S. tariffs — will feature high in her agenda next week when she paves the way for a royal state visit in April. “We’ll look at the differences, and we’ll do it the way two partners do: Talking about it, preferably discreetly,” she told The Associated Press. González Laya recently took the reins of Spain’s diplomacy in a new left-wing coalition government, The U.S. wants to expand significantly its presence in two bases in southern Spain, which are used as a stepping stone for operations in Africa and the Middle East. González Laya, a seasoned bureaucrat with previous jobs in the U.N. and the World Trade Organization, made headlines earlier this year when she suggested that the future presence of the U.S. military there would become part of other negotiations with its long-time ally. That, seen as aimed at

The U.S. wants to expand significantly its presence in two bases in southern Spain, which are used as a stepping stone for operations in Africa and the Middle East applying more pressure on the trade front, marked a U-turn in Spain’s approach to the presence of the U.S. Air Force and Navy in Morón and Rota. In the past, the bases were kept aside of the ups and downs in diplomatic relations, even when those hit a low with the pull-out of Spain’s troops

from Iraq in 2004. González Laya said Spain and the U.S. “have common defense and security relations that we are interested in strengthening, and we both have bilateral economic and commercial relations that we are also interested in strengthening.” But the bases won’t be used as leverage in any negotiation, she said. “That’s not how relations between two mature partners have to be approached.” The Trump administration has also recently toned down its previous criticism of Spain as one of the European countries that are failing to contribute enough to NATO funding. González Laya said Spain wants to increase military spending, but also to focus it on “strengthening” European defense capabilities, which also means supporting a homegrown defense industry. The Spanish minister is scheduled to meet her counterpart, U.S. State Secretary Mike Pompeo, on March 16. She and Spanish Trade Minister Reyes Maroto will also be seeing U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. The visit will continue in the White House, with National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien and Donald Trump’s son-inlaw and adviser Jared Kushner, to iron out preparations for the administration’s third state dinner, on April 21, hosting Spanish King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia. The black-tie dinner is usually reserved for the country’s staunch allies, as the U.S. president and first lady Melania Trump did for France in April 2018 and Australia in September 2019.

FUEL TAXES INCREASED TO CULTIVATE MORE REVENUE IN INDIA

overnment of India has on March 14, 2020 increased taxes on petrol and diesel in a desperate attempt to increase government revenue at a time when tax collections have fallen amid the weakest economic growth in over six years, with the coronavirus impact yet to come. The excise duties on the fuels, which have been hiked by 3 rupees per litre, is expected to result in up to 400 billion Indian rupees ($5.42 billion) increase in annual revenue, a senior government official told Reuters. Taxes on petrol and diesel, which account for more than a third of retail fuel prices, are one of the biggest sources of income for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which has more than tripled revenue from taxes on fuel since first coming to power in 2014. The excise duties on petrol and diesel contributed nearly 1,420.3 billion rupees ($19.24 billion), or nearly 11 percent of total tax revenue for

the year ended March 2019. The move comes at a time when India is staring at the highest ever tax collection shortfall, as corporate and income tax collection for this fiscal year is set to fall for the first time in at least two decades and the goods and services tax revenue could see a gaping shortfall. Indian opposition parties have criticised the Modi government for their high fuel tax policy amid a decline in rural consumption, but economists have praised the move as fiscally prudent. “This balance by the government is a good strategy. This also helps the state shore up some revenue for other useful expenditures,” said N.R. Bhanumurthy, economist at the government-backed National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi. India stopped controlling petrol prices in 2010 and diesel prices in 2014, linking

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

them to global crude markets in a bid to ease pressure on government finances and improve the earnings of oil refiners. Global oil prices posted their biggest week of losses since the 2008 global financial crisis, rocked by the coronavirus outbreak and efforts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and its allies to flood the market with record levels of supply. The national hike translates to a 4.8% increase in diesel prices, and a 4.3% hike in petrol prices in India’s capital New Delhi, compared with the prices on March 13, 2020. Petrol was sold at 70 rupees a litre, while diesel was sold at 62.74 a litre on March 13.

Int’l Biz

VIRUS PARALYSES PRODUCTION UNITS IN CHINA

actory productions in China have plunged at the sharpest pace in 30 years. It all happened during the first two months of 2020, as the fast-spreading coronavirus and strict containment measures severely disrupted the world’s second-largest economy. Urban investment and retail sales also fell sharply and for the first time on record, reinforcing views that the epidemic may have cut China’s growth by half in the first quarter and that authorities will need to do more to restore growth. Industrial output fell by a much larger-thanexpected 13.5% in January-February from the same period a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on March 16, 2020. These data suggest a small contraction in the first-quarter economy is a high probability event. Fixed asset investment fell 24.5% year-onyear, dashing forecasts for a 2.8% rise and skidding from the 5.4% growth in the prior period. Private sector investment dived 26.4% from a year earlier. Retail sales shrank 20.5% on-year, compared with a rise of 0.8% tipped by analysts and 8% growth in December as consumers shunned crowded places like shopping malls, restaurants and movie theatres. China’s jobless rate rose to 6.2% in February, compared with 5.2% in December and the

V-shaped recovery for China’s economy, similar to that seen after the SARS epidemic in 2003-2004.

highest since the official records were published. While officials say the epidemic’s peak in China had passed, analysts warn it could take months before the economy returns to normal. The fast spread of the virus around the world is also sparking fears of a global recession that would dampen demand for Chinese goods. Mainland China has seen an overall drop in new coronavirus infections, but major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai continued to wrestle with cases involving infected travelers arriving from abroad, which could undermine China’s virus fighting efforts. “While domestic conditions should improve slowly in the coming months, the mounting global disruption from the coronavirus will hold back the pace of recovery,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics. Prior to a significant deterioration in the virus, analysts had predicted a rapid

“While domestic conditions should improve slowly in the coming months, the mounting global disruption from the coronavirus will hold back the pace of recovery,”

April 2020

However, the outbreak escalated just as many businesses were closing for the long Lunar New Year holidays in late January, and widespread restrictions on transportation and personal travel, as well as mass quarantine, delayed their reopening for weeks. Factories may not be back to full output until April, some analysts estimate, and consumer confidence may take even longer to recover. Property investment fell at its fastest pace on record while home prices stalled for the first time in nearly five years. Despite those numbers, NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said short-term policies to support the property market were not among the government’s broad swathe of stimulus options. Authorities have been ramping up support since the virus outbreak escalated, with most aimed at helping cash-starved companies stay afloat until conditions improve. It was cutting the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves (RRR) for the second time this year releasing another 550 billion yuan ($78.82 billion) to push down borrowing costs. Chinese Government has also announced fiscal support measures, including more funding for the virus fight, tax waivers, cuts in social insurance fees and subsidies for firms.

OBSERVER DAWN

Int’l Biz CORONA OUTBREAK DETERS ECONOMIC GROWTH OF EASTERN ASIA-PACIFIC COUNTRIES:

WORLD BANK

he COVID-19 outbreak will cause a significant deterioration in the economic growth this year across the eastern AsianPacific countries, throwing millions into poverty.

It might be considered as the worst ever scenario as the region could suffer its sharpest downturn since a devastating currency crisis more than two decades ago, an updated forecast release of World Bank said. The bank’s report projects that growth in the region would slow to 2.1% this year from 5.8 per cent in 2019 under a “baseline” forecast in which economic recovery takes hold this summer. The adverse effects of the virus spillover into next year, the region’s economy would contract 0.5 per cent, the bank estimates. It would represent the weakest performance for the region since the 1997-98 Asian currency crisis, which plunged 40 per cent of the globe into recession. Over 11 million people could fall into poverty in the region under the worse-case scenario, the bank estimates. That’s in stark contrast to its earlier forecast that growth would be sufficient this year to lift 35 million people out of poverty. A slowdown of the size being projected by the World Bank for such a critical part of the global economy would have severe effects for the rest of the world.

The World Bank said it has not finished forecasts for other parts of the world but last week, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, said it is clear that the global economy has already entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the slump after the 2008 financial crisis. As per the World Bank’s base case, China, the world’s second largest economy, would see growth slow from 6.1 per cent last year to 2.3 per cent this year. In the worse case scenario, growth in China would come to a near halt with a tiny gain of 0.1%.

GLOBAL TOURISM TO WITNESS FALL OF OVER 30% ACROSS

This revises sharply lower a forecast made earlier this month of a decline of just 1.0-3%.

The drop in arrivals will lead to an estimated loss of $300-450 billion in international tourism receipts, almost one third of the $1.5 trillion generated in 2019, the Madrid-based UN body said in a statement.

udden drop in arrival and departure of tourists or visitors will lead to a huge loss to the tourism industries across the world. According to a statement released by Madrid-based UN body, an estimated loss of $300-450 billion in international tourism receipts, which is almost one third

of the $1.5 trillion generated in 2019, is anticipated in 2020. The statement said, “Tourism is among the hardest hit of all economic sectors”. The World Tourism Organization (WTO), has said, total number of international tourist arrivals has already fallen by almost 30% in 2020 due to the novel coronavirus, putting millions of jobs at risk.

“Tourism is among the hardest hit of all economic sectors,” the body’s secretary general, Zurab Pololikashvili, said in the statement, adding “it is clear” that millions of jobs within the sector are at risk of being lost. The UNWTO noted that international tourism arrivals declined by 4.0 percent in 2009 during the global economic crisis and by just 0.4 percent in 2003 after the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) which killed 774 people worldwide. The body had predicted at the beginning of the year that international tourism would grow by 3.0-4.0 percent, but on March 6 it revised its forecast due to the growing spread of COVID-19 and instead predicted the decline of 1.0-3.0 percent.

OBSERVER DAWN April 2020

Int’l Biz

MANUFACTURING UNITS IN CHINA BOUNCES BACK IN MARCH

he manufacturing units of China have bounced back in March as the authority relaxed anti-disease controls by allowing the factories to reopen. Meanwhile, an industry group warned that the economy was still in process of recovery. The official China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and the purchasing managers’ index, as issued by the Chinese statistics bureau, rose to 52 from February’s record low of 35.7 on a 100-point scale. The federation and private sector economists cautioned the economy still faces challenges as manufacturers rebuild supply chains and authorities try to prevent a spike in infections as employees stream back to work. “Looking forward, while the lowest point is behind us, it’s not the time to celebrate,” said Larry Hu of Macquarie Capital. Hu said the economy faces potential headwinds including a second wave of coronavirus outbreak, a possible global recession and a financial shock due to plunging oil prices. The shutdown of China’s economy sent out global shockwaves, battering Asian

countries that supply its factories with components and raw materials and disrupting shipping, airlines and other industries.

The latest data “do not indicate that economic activity has fully recovered,” the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing said in a statement.

Authorities say state-dominated industries such as steel are close to normal production but automakers and other private sector manufacturers say they are operating below normal levels. They say the pace of their recovery depends on how quickly their supply chains can be restored.

The group said that the country needed to understand the unprecedented severity and complexity of the current domestic and international economic situation and return to work and production in order to expand domestic demands.

WORLD BANK, IMF TO SUSPEND DEBT PAYMENTS OF POOREST NATIONS

oncerned over the recent Corona Pandemic that has caused a major loss to the world economy over the past few months, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank has planned to put a hold on debt payments from the world’s poorest nations so that they can battle the coronavirus pandemic. On March 25, 2020, these premier institutions called for governments and discussed the issues for its plan of putting a hold on debt payments of poorest countries especially those suffered a huge loss during the Corona outbreak in order to enable them to battle the COVID-19. The Washington-based development lenders, in a joint stamen said, “The World Bank Group and the IMF believe it is imperative at this moment to provide a global sense of relief for developing countries as well as a strong signal to financial markets”. The move is directed at countries that qualify for the most generous aid from the “IDA” fund aimed at the “two-thirds of the world’s population living in extreme poverty”.

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WILDFIRES OF AUSTRALIA CURSE FOR ECO-SYSTEM ON BLUE PLANET

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The year 2019 was Australia’s hottest and driest since modern recordkeeping began in the country in 1910.

The unprecedented heat wave of Australia that had almost dried the country in 20192020 was the primary factor behind raising the fire risk across the Astrlia’s jungle.

hese were the words of the climate scientist, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute in De Bilt.

He added, the study also linked the extremity of that heat wave to climate change. Such an intense heat wave in the region is about 10 times more likely now than it was in 1900. Van Oldenborgh also noted that climate simulations tend to underestimate the severity of such heat waves, suggesting that climate change may be responsible for even more of the region’s high fire risk. “We put the lower boundary at 30 percent, but it could well be much, much more,” he said. This week, the southeastern Australia region was declared free of wildfires for the first time in over 240 days, according to a statement March 2 by the New South Wales Rural Fire Service on Twitter. The fires have burned through

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ECO-SYSTEM an estimated 11 million hectares, killing at least 34 people and destroying about 6,000 buildings since early July. About 1.5 billion animals also died in the blazes. Researchers are still tallying the damage and assessing the potential for recovery for many native plant and animal species. The study on climate attribution was conducted by the World Weather Attribution group, an international consortium of researchers who investigate how much of a role climate change might be playing in natural disasters. Given the quick turnaround time, the study has not yet been peer reviewed. “We wanted to bring the scientific evidence at a time when the public is talking about the event,” said climate modeler Friederike Otto of the University of Oxford. Then the group examined how climate change altered the Fire Weather Index, an estimation of the risk of wildfires. The climate simulations show that the probability of a high Fire Weather Index during the 2019–2020 season increased by at least 30 percent, relative to the fire risk in 1910. That is primarily due to the increase in extreme heat; the study was not able to determine the impact of climate change on extreme drought conditions, which also helped fuel the blazes. Researchers previously have suggested that an El Niño-like atmosphere-ocean weather pattern known as the Indian Ocean Dipole, which was in a strong positive phase in 2019, may have played a role in exacerbating the dry conditions. Global warming may make such extreme positive phases of this pattern more common. The new study confirmed that the 2019 positive phase made drought conditions more extreme, but could not confirm this particular phase’s relationship to climate change. “It is always rather difficult to attribute an individual event to climate change,” but this study is nicely done, another climate scientist at CSIRO, Wenju Cai, who is based in Melbourne, Australia, said. The year 2019 was Australia’s hottest and driest since modern recordkeeping began in the country in 1910. Summers Down Under also appear to be lengthening. The Australia Institute, a Canberra-based think tank, released a report March 2 that found that Australian summers during the years 1999 to 2018 lasted longer by a

month, on average, than they did 50 years ago. The temperature observations that goes back to 1910 show that the region’s temperatures have increased by about 2 degrees Celsius on average, van Oldenborgh and colleagues report. The climate simulations underrepresented that warming, however, showing an increase of only 1 degree Celsius in that time. Simulations tend to underestimate the severity of the extreme events. The team noticed a similar underestimation in its simulations of the 2019 heat waves in Europe. Conditions not generally factored into regional climate simulations, such as land-use changes, may be responsible for the disparity.

Ugly Faces of Australia’s Wildfire Several waterbeds and green covers, comprising myriads of animals and insects, in Australia gradually turned into ash and debris following the devastating bush fires this spring and summer. It destroyed a large chunk of fishes and other aquatic lives, apart from affecting drinking water supplies Scientists and researchers visiting Nature Reserve, gestured down a steep hillside and described the ugly faces of the wildfire. “As we entered, we saw there were dead animals all through surfaces. The carcasses of kangaroos, feral deer, wallabies, wombats, possums, and birds of numerous species strewn across the charred landscape”, the researcher said. It is said that the Green Valley-Talmalmo fire that tore through this area was one of the many massive bush fires that have made headlines for months as millions of acres of Australia have burned. This species, which grows to about 16 inches in length and can live for 25 years, was once abundant and commercially fished throughout the Murray River basin. Today it’s endangered and only found in a handful of sites across southeast Australia, including in this 3.7-mile section of the Mannus Creek. It was a relief for many, putting out fires and watering parched cattle paddocks, but the downpours triggered disaster in the creek. As the climate warms, droughts become more severe, and the incidence, intensity, and duration of wildfires increases, more rivers and streams worldwide are being

The year 2019 was Australia’s hottest and driest since modern recordkeeping began in the country in 1910. Summers Down Under also appear to be lengthening.

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adversely affected by ash and debris pouring into aquatic ecosystems in the wake of blazes. The researchers said, oxygen levels dropping from an already-low 7.5 milligrams per liter to 0.06 milligrams per liter on January 20— virtually zero. As the threat to fish from ash has become obvious, scientists and government agencies have moved to create captive breeding populations. The stocky galaxias, a small fish that grows to about 4 inches long, was only described to science in 2014. It is found in just two miles of the small Tantangara Creek in the highlands of Kosciuszko National Park.

Significant Facts • Unprecedented increase in temperatures and everlasting severe droughts has fuelled a series of massive bushfires across the region. • Despite several preventive measures and the recent cooler conditions due to downpour, which had brought some respite, more than 50 fires are still burning in the states of New South Wales and Victoria. • The most major bush fires in recent times have been started in remote areas by dry lightning. • The fires began in multiple ways like: some by lightning, some by human actions, including arson. But it’s the climate conditions that provide ample fuel for the fires to grow and spread. • Over a billion animals are now estimated to have died in Australia’s wild fires. Majorities of those killed include kangaroos, koalas, and others killed keeps skyrocketing.