CANTERBURY
et k r a m REPORT JULY - SEPTEMBER 2023
CHRISTCHURCH NORTH CANTERBURY SELWYN RURAL LIFESTYLE 0800 789 1011 fourseasons@harcourts.co.nz harcourtsfourseasons.co.nz
Four Seasons Realty Market Report JUL 23 - SEP 23
CANTERBURY MARKET The period from July to September 2023 has seen the shaking off of the winter chill and a definite shift in mindset to looking forward to spring and summer. These are generally seasonal changes we see most years but for some reason, maybe the election in October this year has felt a little different from most. Sales activity across Canterbury was well up on same time last year and has taken on more of a feel of pre COVID years that were solid without being spectacular. We have seen a ramping up of activity since July and a lot of that is likely to do with the market ‘bottoming out’ in price terms around March/ April this year. Empirical data showing this is often a month or so behind actual activity which we can see and feel on a daily basis as real estate agents. So as reports of prices slowing came through so did the sales activity – we have seen a marked increase in buyers in the market, often in the under $1 million dollar price range who are looking to make decisions whilst prices are lower and interest rates are flattening. Add to this we are hearing evidence of some further jumps in interest rates and new tax policy around investment properties on the horizon and we have a market that is starting to become more active. We have seen evidence of price growth back in the market in the past two months, another reason why buyers have become more active. Picture, if you will, the chance to lock in reasonable interest rates on a property that is down on price (from historical highs) with the chance to pick up capital growth almost immediately, makes real sense. From experience, when we have a bubble in property prices like we did last year, even though prices have dropped, we almost always get back to those higher prices and exceed them – so in theory buying now is a great chance to grow equity.
As mentioned most activity is in the price brackets below $1 million dollars, however we are seeing some strong activity in the lifestyle sector where people are now understanding the value for money offered in properties just a little further out from urban centres. We have seen activity from young upwardly mobile couples keen to invest in a lifestyle rather than spend time in the cities. It is nice to see hard working people getting an opportunity to live out their dreams. Stock levels have grown over the past few months – so there is more property on the market than we have seen for a few years, but this won’t last too long as the impact of a change of government begins to become apparent. I can see the period from mid -November through to March being extremely active and even though I say there is more property available for sale, there still won’t be enough to satisfy the buyer demand – again from experience there has been an extended period of low sales volumes which suggest a pent-up demand for property. If you are thinking of making a real estate decision, please do get in touch with one of our Four Seasons team – we are more than happy to help.
James Twiss Managing Director
Market Report JUL 23 - SEP 23
A Housing Market Upturn is Good News for Sellers New Zealand’s property market may be shifting from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market, driven by greater buyer demand – in particular from first home buyers taking advantage of favourable house price conditions – and lower-than-usual listings in what is traditionally the busy Spring selling season. Read on to find out more about the two important changes to market conditions that could see sellers regain the upper hand. First home buyers leading the charge One of the key driving forces behind a shift in the market is the influx of first home buyers. Slightly lower house prices and less competition has seen a greater number of individuals and families eager to take their first steps onto the property ladder, in what is considered by many to be the most favourable market conditions for first home buyers in recent years. According to CoreLogic’s First Home Buyer report (released in May 2023), first home buyers accounted for approximately 25 per cent of the market share in the first quarter of 2023, up from the long-term average of 21 – 22 per cent. Across most markets in New Zealand, real estate agents – including those at Harcourts – are reporting an increase in buyer activity at open homes and at auction. Lower available listings in a busy Spring selling season Spring is traditionally a busy time for New Zealand’s property market, with a surge in listings matching an influx in buyers eager to find their dream homes. However, Spring 2023 has brought a unique scenario, in which a lower-than-usual number of listings is driving a greater demand for available properties. This scarcity is fueling competition amongst buyers, putting sellers in a stronger negotiating position. As sales volumes continue to rise while available housing stock shrinks to the lowest level in over a year – according to CoreLogic – the emerging mismatch between supply and demand will start to push up property prices. Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic NZ chief property economist, said, “August marked the fourth consecutive monthly rise in sales volumes, and while the increase is off a low base of around 60,000 annual sales versus a longer-term average of around 90,000 annual sales, upturns have to start somewhere.” “On the supply side, the ‘spring lift’ has begun, but the flow of new listings coming on to the market each week Information sourced from REINZ as at 19th October 2023 3
is still well below average as would-be vendors choose to ‘wait and see’, given the uncertainty about how long a sale might take and/or the potential price achieved.” “Housing affordability remains stretched and caps on debt-to-income ratios for mortgage lending loom next year. On balance, house price growth in the coming year or two could well be weaker than in past ‘rebounds.’” Strategic approach for sellers For those considering selling their property in this evolving market, there are several strategies that can be employed to optimise outcomes: • Pricing wisely: While demand is high, it’s important for sellers to set a competitive but realistic asking price for their property, maximizing potential for a quick sale. • Showcasing the property’s unique features: making it stand out from the rest in a competitive market. • Timely decision making, acting promptly on offers and negotiations can be crucial. • Engaging the services of an experienced real estate agent can make all the difference when it comes to navigating this shifting market. Careful planning and expert guidance While it’s too early to say that New Zealand’s property market is leaning towards sellers, there’s been a notable shift in recent months driven by greater demand and shrinking housing stock.
Anthony Woolcott Mortgage Adviser
027 483 1131 anothony@mx.co.nz mortgage-express.co.nz
View online at harcourtsfourseasons.co.nz
CHRISTCHURCH MARKET The Christchruch residential sales market, in September, has continued to improve from a decent August – despite historical evidence showing markets slowing before an election. Previous election cycles have seen a pre-election slow down with a rebound in sales once results have been tallied.
get a chance to enter the market once more. All intriguing questions that will have marked effects on the housing market over the next months. One thing we do know is the Reserve Bank will be watching these announcements and the trends they create with interest.
We have not seen the normal spring rush of properties coming to market with stock numbers only up 0.9% on same time last year. This may be a sign that once we have some certainty there is a possibility of an influx of properties coming on the market over November and into December.
Whatever the outcome of the formation of a government it will be a watershed period for us all and the impact on the economy and the housing market will be interesting to see.
Now we are past the election weekend we look forward to seeing what the next few months hold. Questions will now be asked how will Nationals economic policies affect the housing market and the economy at large? National have openly said they will peel back Brightline test periods and put an end to interest deductibility for investors, how many homes will need to be built for the high levels of migrants entering the country or will foreign buyers
CHRISTCHURCH RESIDENTIAL SEPTEMBER TOTAL LISTINGS 1507 700
659
600 500 400 275
300 200
237 143 78
100 0
49
11
19
12
18
3
9
13
3
3
3
13
ou Ra r ts yW hi te Ba yle y M s ike Pe To ro ta lR ea lty Ta ll P op py Pe Co op wd le & y Pr op er ty Ar Pr iz t of o es s io na Gl ls as sM W ile hi ttl s eK n On igh eA t Sm g ar t R enc y ea lE st Fir at st e Na tio Ex na ec l ut ive Re al … Ot he r
Median sale prices for the city are almost identical to same time last year which is again a sign of the market stabilising after many negative growth months from mid-2022 through to mid-2023. Sales numbers also were almost identical with only 49 more sales vs September 2022.
LISTINGS BY REAL ESTATE COMPANIES
Ha rc
A healthy real estate market is one underpinned by strong first home buyers’ activity and in Christchurch over the past few months we have seen first home buyers making the largest contribution to house sale for some time. This is due, in part, to the OCR holding and interest rates flattening out as they get close to expected highs in the next 12 months.
Data sourced from realestate.co.nz as at 19th October 2023. Whilst every measure was taken to ensure data is correct, errors and omissions excepted.
Market Report JUL 23 - SEP 23
CHRISTCHURCH MARKET
JULY - SEPTEMBER 2023
MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE FOR THE LAST 12 MONTHS $800,000
$680,000
$700,000
MEDIAN SALE PRICE $663,000
$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000
30 AVERAGE DAYS ON THE MARKET
23 p-
23
Se
g-
23
23 l-
Au
Ju
n-
3
Ju
ay
r-
M
Ap
ar
-2
23
3 -2
23 M
Ja
Fe
b-
23
2
n-
-2
2
ec D
-2 ov
O
ct
N
-2
2
$200,000
MEDIAN SECTION PRICE FOR THE LAST 12 MONTHS $500,000 $450,000
$388,000
$400,000 $350,000
NUMBER OF HOUSES SOLD 1556
$300,000 $250,000
23 Se
Au
p-
23 g-
23 lJu
23 nJu
3 M
ay
-2
23 r-
ar
Ap
3 -2
23 M
Ja
Fe
n-
b-
23
2 ec D
-2
2 -2 ov N
O
ct
-2
2
$200,000
MEDIAN RENTAL PRICE FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS $550
NUMBER OF SECTIONS SOLD 75
$500
$500 $450 $400 $350
5
23 lJu
23
22 l-
nJa
Ju
22 nJa
21 lJu
21 nJa
20 lJu
20 Ja
n-
19 lJu
19 nJa
18 lJu
18 nJa
l-
17
$300 Ju
Information sourced from REINZ as at 19th October 2023
View View online online at at harcourtsfourseasons.co.nz harcourtsfourseasons.co.nz
NORTH CANTERBURY MARKET REINZ figures recorded an extremely steady North Canterbury market over the last 3 months with the median sale price only fluctuating by $1000 over the quarter. The average sale price rose by around 5% compared to the same time last year and the average days on market was 57 days. Harcourts listing numbers midway through September were consistent with the previous 3 months, however Harcourts market share in the area increased to over 30% during this time. This increase up from 25.99% six months earlier would suggest that although listing numbers decreased over this period Harcourts maintained approximately 180 listings, inferring a higher percentage of home owners bringing their properties to market chose to work with Harcourts. Buyer activity over the quarter increased significantly with demand for well maintained properties remaining strong and with a very steady increase in sales. North Canterbury recorded 331 sales compared to 279 sales over the previous quarter and up from 226 sales for the first quarter of the year. With strong activity since these figures were released, I believe we will see a significant shift in the market over the spring and summer months ahead. Already we have seen evidence of price growth back in the market and a likely lift in the average sale price. Add to this the likelihood of a new tax policy in the wind around investment properties and we have a
more active market. Although the months ahead normally bring more listings to the market I would be surprised if this increase will be enough to satisfy current buyer demand. If you are considering a property change over the coming months now is a great time to talk with one of our experienced team members. They can appraise your home and advise on the best way to bring your property to the market and achieve the best possible result.
WHERE OUR BUYERS COME FROM Source of buyers July - September 2023
Waimakariri Selwyn Christchurch Hurunui North Island Rest of South Island Overseas
Data complied by Harcourts Four Seasons for every sale from July - September 2023. Whilst every measure was taken to ensure data is correct, errors and omissions excepted.
Market Report JUL 23 - SEP 23
NORTH CANTERBURY MARKET
JULY - SEPTEMBER 2023
MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE FOR THE LAST 12 MONTHS $750,000
MEDIAN SALE PRICE $690,000
$690,000
$700,000 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000
49 AVERAGE DAYS ON THE MARKET
23 p-
23
Se
g-
23
Au
Ju
l-
23
3 M
Ju
ay
n-
-2
23
3
Ap
ar M
Fe
Ja
r-
-2
23 b-
23
2
n-
-2
2
ec D
-2 ov N
O
ct
-2
2
$500,000
MEDIAN SECTION PRICE FOR THE LAST 12 MONTHS
$400,000 $350,000
$269,000
$300,000
NUMBER OF HOUSES SOLD 212
$250,000 $200,000 $150,000
23 p-
23
Se
g-
23
Au
M
Ju
Ju
n-
l-
23
3 ay
rAp
ar M
-2
23
3 -2
23 Fe
n-
b-
23
2
Ja
ec
-2
2 D
-2 ov N
O
ct
-2
2
$100,000
RENTAL PRICE FOR THE LAST 6 YEARS NUMBER OF SECTIONS SOLD 50
$527
$550 $500 $450 $400 $350
7
23 lJu
23 nJa
22 lJu
22 nJa
21 lJu
21 nJa
20 lJu
20 nJa
19 lJu
19 nJa
18 lJu
n-
18
$300 Ja
Information sourced from REINZ as at 19th October 2023
View View online online at at harcourtsfourseasons.co.nz harcourtsfourseasons.co.nz
SELWYN MARKET The Selwyn District market has continued to exhibit its resilience and adaptability after a 12 month period of uncertainty leading up to the recent elections. The market has shown positive signs of recovery after a period of continuing fluctuations. The median sale price for properties in the District during this quarter was $663,000. While this represents a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter, it’s important to note that prices are stabilising, indicating that the bottom of the market appears to be behind us. The average number of days on the market continued to decline, reaching an impressive 30 days in July to September. This decrease underscores the increasing market activity and the growing demand for properties in the area. Sellers can now anticipate faster sales, which is great news for those looking to enter or exit the market swiftly. In this quarter, a total of 1,556 houses were sold, reflecting a robust level of market activity. Buyers and sellers alike are actively participating in the real estate market, driving sales to higher numbers. The Selwyn District remains an attractive destination for those seeking to buy or sell their homes. Interestingly, the median section price was $388,000 during this period, showing a softening trend. This could be attributed to recent plan changes in the Selwyn area, which promise the availability of thousands of new residential sections. This shift in section prices suggests that potential buyers and developers are taking note of these upcoming opportunities, influencing current pricing dynamics. The strong performance in the number of houses sold and the decreasing time properties spend on the market reflects a dynamic market environment. Sellers continue to benefit from competitive bidding, while buyers are faced with a sense of urgency to secure their desired properties.
At Harcourts, we recognise the potential that the Selwyn District’s real estate market holds for property vendors. The upward trend in market activity, faster sales, and the prospect of new residential sections becoming available make this an opportune time to consider selling your property. If you are considering selling your property within the next six months, we encourage you to reach out to us. With our extensive knowledge, experience, and dedication, we are here to guide you through the process and help you achieve a premium price in the thriving Selwyn District market. The future of the Selwyn real estate market looks promising, and we are committed to ensuring that our clients make the most of it.
SALE PRICE HARCOURTS VS ALL REAL ESTATE COMPANIES $740,000 $681,000
Four Seasons Realty
ALL REAL ESTATE COMPANIES
Sourced from REINZ median sale prices for September 2023.
The REINZ data for Christchurch in June tells us the median sale price achieved by all companies was $681,000, Harcourts data tells us we achieved a median sale price of $740,000. That’s a $59,000 difference! Market Report JUL 23 - SEP 23
SELWYN MARKET
JULY - SEPTEMBER 2023
MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE FOR THE LAST 12 MONTHS
$860,000 $840,000
$801,000
$820,000
NUMBER OF HOUSES SOLD 346
$800,000 $780,000 $760,000 $740,000 $720,000 23 p-
23 Au
Se
g-
23 l-
23 n-
Ju
3
Ju
M
Ap
ay
r-
-2
23
3 -2
23 M
Ja
Fe
ar
b-
23
2
n-
-2
2
ec D
-2 ov
O
ct
N
-2
2
$700,000
MEDIAN SECTION PRICE FOR THE LAST 12 MONTHS NUMBER OF SECTIONS SOLD 85
$360,000 $340,000
$319,000
$320,000 $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 23 p-
23
Se
g-
23
Au
Ju
nJu
l-
23
3 ay
r-
M
Ap
M
-2
23
3 ar
-2
23
nJa
Fe
b-
23
2 ec
-2
2 D
-2 ov N
ct O
MEDIAN SALE PRICE $783,000
-2
2
$200,000
RENTAL PRICE FOR THE LAST 6 YEARS $650
$593
$600 $550 $500 $450
AVERAGE DAYS ON THE MARKET 38
$400 $350
9
23 lJu
23 nJa
22 lJu
22 nJa
21 lJu
21 nJa
20 lJu
20 Ja
n-
19 lJu
19 nJa
18 lJu
18 nJa
Ju
l-
17
$300
Information sourced from REINZ as at 19th October 2023
View View online online at at harcourtsfourseasons.co.nz harcourtsfourseasons.co.nz
MEDIAN SALE PRICE
AVERAGE DAYS ON THE MARKET
PROPERTIES SOLD
NORTH CANTERBURY $1,006,000
NORTH CANTERBURY 71
NORTH CANTERBURY 74
SELWYN $1,095,000
SELWYN 72
SELWYN 32
RURAL LIFESTYLE MARKET JULY -SEPTEMBER 2023
$1,500,000 $1,300,000
$936,000
$1,100,000 $900,000 $700,000
23
23
pSe
Au
23
23
g-
lJu
3 -2
Ju
n-
23
ay M
3 -2
rAp
23
ar
bFe
M
2
23 nJa
2
-2 ec D
-2 ov N
O
ct
-2
2
$500,000
NORTH CANTERBURY LIFESTYLE MEDIAN PRICE FOR THE LAST 12 MONTHS $1,200,000 $1,100,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000
23
23 g-
23 l-
pSe
Au
23
3 -2
n-
Ju
Ju
23 r-
ay M
3 -2 ar M
Ap
23 bFe
2
23 nJa
ec D
-2
ov
-2
2
$500,000 2
Our biggest challenge currently is the supply of available properties to offer the buyers that are keen to purchase.
$1,700,000
-2
The market sales value increases we have experienced over the passed two-three years are still in the value of all properties but the growth we were experience has stopped if not pulled back ever so slightly.
SELWYN LIFESTYLE MEDIAN SALE PRICE FOR THE LAST 12 MONTHS
ct
Something we are asked regularly, is the market increasing or still reducing in value. As you know everyone has an opinion but from the facts the Median sales values for Noth Canterbury have softened -7.8% where as Selwyn has remained the same over the last quarter. This reflects recent settled sales within the market for a period with various reasons for the declines or increases e.g. (the number of settled lower value property sales could result in a lower average median value or in an increase, one or two extremely high value sales would increase the value up) all depends on when the recorded sales are measured. From what we can glean from our sales data and results that we are experiencing, is that the market is responding well with eager buyers prepared to pay fair market value meaning there is no more excessive price upward movement. Once viewed and investigated the buyers, who are becoming very wise and informed with all the data and market facts they can access, to either see value and be interested or disregard the property. This reinforcing my previous comment about well developed and maintained property.
RURAL & LIFESTYLE MARKET STATS
N
Information from The Real Estate Institute of NZ shows clearly that the market is experiencing a slight lift in unit sales over the quarter +7.5% and although the days on the market has risen this really reflects the stock that is not meeting the market value expectations. Good well developed and well maintained properties are in demand with a consistent stream of enquiry from both local and transferring Kiwi’s.
With stock levels at 30-40% below pre covid levels the market is perfect for any vendors considering to sell. It’s time to talk to your local Rural Lifestyle specialist about listing. An agent that knows the market, your type of property, understands the differences between rural and residential and a person with a proven record. This is where your opportunity begins with a partnership with the best brand and agent to sell your home.
O
After a long and damp winter and a period of economic uncertainty we can now look forward to a Spring and Summer period with a genuine reason to feel positive about making your dreams of purchasing or Selling your Rural Lifestyle property.
Market Report JUL 23 - SEP 23
AUCTION UPDATE It’s all about the numbers... Harcourts is known for tracking data and statistics and one of the brand’s strengths is providing realtime facts to both buyer and sellers. •
In 2022, Harcourts conducted 7115 auctions throughout the country
•
The success rate was 81%
•
The total value sold was $16 billion worth of property.
You are probably wondering how does this affect you as a property owner in Canterbury? What it means is that your Harcourts agent has the backup, knowledge and expertise in providing you with a specific targeted marketing campaign designed to attract as many potential buyers as possible to your property over a specific period of time. Marketing the property without a price, within a designated timeframe creates a sense of urgency culminating in bringing buyers together in a controlled open and transparent environment, where cash buyers focus on how much they will pay for your property, not how little. We provide as much information as possible from the marketplace to assist you in making an informed and educated decision on auction day – sometimes you may receive a pre-auction offer which shows what serious buyers are willing to pay for your property. Communication is key throughout the process and Harcourts are proud to be continuously recognised for their commitment to providing the
finest experience in real estate – so you can expect full weekly marketing and activity reports, unwavering focus and full support from your agent. “Harcourts are known right across Christchurch for our exceptional auction results, world class auctioneers, and very, very, happy sellers”. Harcourts Four Seasons latest statistics January to September 2023 show that 56% of our auction properties sold in the auction rooms and a further 25% sold within 5 days of the auction which is a total of 81% of properties sold using the auction method, and an average sale price of $27,713 above rateable value - a success rate we are very proud of and proof that the auction method delivers a very advantageous platform for you to sell your property. We all know nothing is guaranteed in life, and we can’t guarantee a sale on auction day. If your property doesn’t sell under the hammer, we transition straight into stage two of the process, and your agent will advise you whether to price the property based on market feedback, or if there are conditional buyers who have been unable to purchase on auction day, and have strong interest, often we will offer the property to the market using a short deadline sale timeframe, in an attempt to gather as many conditional buyers as possible to make an offer within the following week. If you want to know more about the auction process, and why it is the preferred method of sale for property owners all over New Zealand, give your local Harcourts Four Seasons agent a call now.
Information sourced from REINZ as at 19th October 2023 11
View online at harcourtsfourseasons.co.nz
Belfast Office 03 323 6045
belfast@harcourts.co.nz 804 Main North Road, Belfast
Kaiapoi Office
Hanmer Springs Office
Hornby Office
03 315 7084 hanmersprings@harcourts.co.nz Shop 3, 12a Conical Hill Road, Hanmer Springs
03 349 9919
hornby@harcourts.co.nz 395 Main South Road, Hornby
Lincoln Office
Prebbleton Office
03 662 9933
03 344 1994
Rangiora Office
Rolleston Office
The Palms Office
03 313 6158
03 347 4711
03 385 0343
03 327 5379
kaiapoi@harcourts.co.nz 154 Williams Street, Kaiapoi
rangiora@harcourts.co.nz 15 Good Street, Rangiora
lincoln@harcourts.co.nz 6 Gerald Street, Lincoln
prebbleton@harcourts.co.nz 2/573 Springs Road, Prebbleton
rolleston@harcourts.co.nz Unit 13,70 Rolleston Drive, Rolleston
thepalms@harcourts.co.nz 39 Marshland Road, Shirley
PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Belfast Office 03 323 6045
Hanmer Springs Office 03 315 7084
Hornby Office 03 338 1138
Rangiora Office 03 310 6003
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Market Report JUL 23 - SEP 23