Welcome to the 2024 collection of prize-winning Extended Research Projects.
This independent study programme gives students in their Lower Sixth year the opportunity to study a question of their choosing with guidance from a supervisor in their field. There are few restrictions to where their interest and passion can take them and the process culminates in the submission of either a 3,000 to 4,000 word written piece or a production project such as a film or computer programme
with supporting materials. All will have engaged in their own research and presented their views, positions, intentions and/or judgements in an academic manner. The project seeks to encourage them to be intellectually ambitious alongside developing the creativity, independent study skills and broader scholastic attributes which will allow them to thrive at the finest institutions of higher learning.
After a rigorous process of external marking and viva voce interviews, the prize-winning projects presented here represent the very best of the over 250 unique submissions made by students across the Haberdashers’ Elstree Schools. They showcase the remarkable application, courage and ambition of all of the students in completing such exceptional pieces of
independent work alongside their A Level subjects and many co-curricular commitments.
We are immensely proud of the achievements of our students; the depth and range of the projects they have completed is inspiring and we are excited to share them with you.
1ST PLACE ELIJAH SUMMER (MUSIC) PAGE 9
2ND PLACE ZOYA MANKHAND (CREATIVE WRITING) PAGE 27
3RD PLACE HARISHAN JENIRATHAN (DESIGN ENGINEERING) PAGE 49
STEM Faculty
1ST PLACE DAWEI TAO (CHEMISTRY) PAGE 69
2ND PLACE NAADIYA MIRZA (BIOLOGY) PAGE 83
3RD PLACE SANJHAY VIJAYAKUMAR (COMPUTER SCIENCE) PAGE 91
HIGHLY COMMENDED SAVIN DIAS (POLITICS AND ECONOMICS)
HIGHLY COMMENDED ISABELLA MICHAELSON (PSYCHOLOGY)
Creative Faculty
Elijah Summer
MUSIC
As a cellist, Elijah Summer has always wanted to know more about the mechanics of sound production in stringed instruments. His project determines the physical characteristics and acoustic requirements of the parts of stringed instruments that make instrument production most difficult. Then, comparing the properties of other materials, he discusses which materials, if any, would make suitable, beneficial alternatives. Elijah is studying Further Maths, Physics and Music, wanting to read Maths at university.
What does the future of stringed instrument production look like?
Introduc*on
The project is inspired by industry’s trend of turning expensive and delicate products, made from organic materials, into cheaper, more robust products, made from synthe;c alterna;ves. Furniture, clothing, and food have all been subjected to this transi;on, and yet stringed instrument produc;on remains ar;san, s;ll requiring pre-industrial amounts of money and care. The aim of this project is to determine whether there exist alterna;ves to the most challenging organic part of stringed instruments – namely the wooden soundboard and the horsehair bow –and what they might be.
Acous*c requirements of sound boards
The physical proper;es of materials that are relevant to their acous;c poten;al can be split into three categories: bulk proper;es, vibro-mechanical proper;es, and sound radia;on proper;es 1
The first can be inves;gated with raw materials and covers proper;es such as density and Young’s modulus. The second and third, covering body vibra;ons and sound radia;on respec;vely, require these materials to be craFed into components or even assembled before analysis can be performed.
Perhaps the simplest of the bulk proper;es is density. Woods chosen for stringed instruments have the most no;ceable dis;nc;on in this measure. The average wood density of a viol is significantly lower than the global average, and players and luthiers alike value the lighter instruments over heavier ones (Brémaud 2012). While some of this may be due to the infeasibility of suppor;ng a heavy violin, the overbearing reality is that high wood densi;es are hard to come by, and instruments from luthiers regarded as some of the best – such as Stradivari – have lower wood densi;es than most. An explana;on is that a soundboard with a lower mass requires less force to be accelerated into mo;on and will therefore vibrate more readily (Brémaud 2012).
Internal fric;on, also known as damping coefficient or loss factor, is the measure of resistance to deforma;on within a body. It is responsible for the difference in incline between natural piles of fine materials, such as sand and gravel. It is also responsible for the way a stretching, vibra;ng body slows to a stop in the absence of external forces. It therefore seems plausible that choosing a material with low internal fric;on might improve sound quality by leUng notes ring. This is true for the manufacture of xylophone bars, where temperate hardwoods with low internal
1 The available research refers to only proper3es in these three categories when predic3ng acous3cs from materials (Brémaud 2012, Wegst 2012)
fric;on are much sought-aFer (Brémaud 2012). However, for stringed instruments, the woods used – typically soFwoods – have internal fric;on values in line with the global average (Brémaud 2012).
Another bulk property is Young’s modulus (E), which measures the s;ffness of a body – how much force is required to stretch an object by a given distance It can be combined with density in the formula ���� = #! " where ���� represents the speed at which sound travels through a material (Wegst 2012) To achieve high sound quality, it is important to have a high value for ���� – and most soFwoods desirable for stringed instruments do. However, it is complicated by another bulk property: characteris;c impedance (���� ). This is also related to Young’s modulus and density, but with the formula ���� = %�������� (Wegst 2012) Characteris;c impedance describes how vibra;ons are transferred from one medium to the next, and most soFwoods used for craFing have a low value for it. Not only does the Young’s modulus of the material have to be balanced between making ���� high and ���� low, but the difference between the characteris;c impedance of adjoining mediums will determine how much of the sound intensity is conveyed. If, say, the soundboard and the bass bar, or the string and the air, are mismatched and have distant values for ���� , then the transmission will fail and hardly any sound will be passed across. This is because, while there needs to be enough energy transferred between two components for good sound radia;on, if transmission is too quick, or happens too readily, the vibra;ons will dampen quickly (Wegst 2012) Compare it to slamming a book shut or flicking through all the pages.
When looking for alterna;ve materials, the focus will be primarily on soundboards, and the bulk proper;es of these materials will be compared to the following approxima;ons when assessing suitability. Woods chosen for soundboards have densi;es around 400kgm-3 , internal fric;on of 0.006, and Young’s modulus of around 12GPa. They combine to give compound acous;c proper;es, namely speed of sound of around 5,000ms-1 and characteris;c impedance of 2.1 × 10# Nsm-3 (Brémaud 2012). While many other bulk proper;es remain unmen;oned, few reveal any trends in chosen woods so are unlikely to be relevant to acous;cs, and the ones that do are usually further manipula;ons of the above measures.
There exists the concept that sound is a spectrum of frequencies, each with their own amplitude and phase that makes any sound, tonal or otherwise, unique, much in the same way that all light is a spectrum of colours combined. Sourcing several studies from the past seventy years, in which the spectra of sounds radiated by violins of varying quali;es are cross-referenced to iden;fy trends, a defini;on of good sound quality that has enough of its roots in physics can be constructed. Each study comes to a similar conclusion, rela;ng to similar sec;ons of the sound spectrum. The best violins – oFen old Italian instruments – have (1) large amplitudes at lower bass to lower midrange frequencies (40-600Hz), associated with ‘dark ;mbre’ and ‘carrying well’; (2) small amplitudes at middle midrange to upper midrange frequencies (600-2000Hz), associated with ‘nasality’; (3) large amplitudes at upper midrange to presence range frequencies
(2000-4000Hz), the human ear’s most sensi;ve region, associated with ‘brilliance’ and ‘clarity’; (4) small amplitudes at high end frequencies (4000-7000Hz), associated with ‘harshness’ (Rossing 2010).
While there is s;ll plenty of subjec;vity in the above conclusions, the nature of the ques;on, ‘what is a good sound?’ is such that there can never be a perfectly scien;fic answer, simply because we humans vary too much. Instead, for the purpose of meaningful analysis, the physics of sound has been pushed to its limit, and seventy years of human consensu s for backup will just have to do, to overcome subjec;vity – the above values will be treated as defini;ve. Thus, while bulk proper;es can only go so far as to predict which materials may sound befer, ul;mately the final instrument will have to produce sounds with the above pafern if they are to compare with tradi;onal models.
Alterna*ve materials for sound boards
The first step towards a predic;on of out of what materials the stringed instruments of the future will be made, is to compile the relevant data for other materials and compare it to the ideal values of wood, as found above. Much research has been under taken into the bulk proper;es of solids, and there are numerous sources of data on most materials. However, dynamic acous;cal proper;es are under-represented. As such, much data – loss factor in par;cular – has had to be accumulated from a range of sources and, as such, a reasonable margin of error has been applied when drawing conclusions.
Further, given the imprecision of the correla;on between Young’s modulus, density and loss factor, and acous;c poten;al – these measures are good indicators of what materials might make a quality instrument but are by no means defini;ve and display a fairly loose trends – the results of the comparison can only lead to a rough grouping of materials that have similar enough values to be considered further (see Appendix A).
The closest matching candidate is bamboo, a hollow, woody plant in the grass family, which originates in China Bamboo is organic, meaning it has the same fibrous quality that makes wood resonate the way it does – when the sound radia;on spectrum for bamboo is studied more closely, numerous similari;es to wooden resonance are revealed and so ;mbre is unlikely to be such an issue (Aditanoyo, T., Prase;yo, I. and Putra, I. 2017). It also shows good poten;al for workability as the fibres allow for shaping while s;ll retaining structural integrity. Tradi;onally, wood is soaked and heated un;l it can be bent into the rounded shape of the instrument, and bamboo will readily undergo the same process. Furthermore, bamboo is a far more afrac;ve choice than wood, environmentally and economically, as it is cheap to obtain, readily harvestable – meaning the plant will not die – and a befer carbon store than wood, such that each instrument becomes a befer store of carbon (Econa;on 2024).
Unlike wood, bamboo is hollow, and so has a thickness restricted to the thickness of the cylindrical fibrous wall beneath the exodermis Each piece also has a length limit due to how the bamboo body is separate into culms by nodes To work with bamboo may require layering thinner sheets onto each other to reach the required thickness, and significantly more warping to unravel the cylindrical shape. All this suggests a greater manufacturing ;me and more room for error, resul;ng in higher costs than wood, rather than lower. Overall, bamboo is a weaker alterna;ve to wood, however it may be explored further in the event that manufacturers are required to meet certain environmental standards, to tackle issues such as deforesta;on.
The data has thrown up a number of different types of glass. However, given how many types of glass exist, and how well modern industries manipulate them – from altering hardness to configuring shafer paferns – all glasses will be treated holis;cally as a family of materials whose proper;es lie in a range, not at a point (including glass-fibre-reinforced polymers (GFRP)).
Glass is the product of a chemical transforma;on that occurs when quartz crystals (silicon dioxide – sand) are melted down and rapidly cooled. The result is a clear amorphous solid, the proper;es of which are determined by the other materials that are combined with the quartz before mel;ng While woods require much care when they are shaped into instruments, glass is easily workable and weldable with low levels of heat, such as that from a Bunsen flame – a great contrast to the opera;ng temperatures of glass produc;on. While the wooden components of instruments need careful glueing together, and the seams rou;nely need resealing, glass components can be melted together precisely and without too much effort. Further, quartz is Earth’s most abundant mineral, and so glass poses a notable economic advantage over wood (Corning)
Timbre is the main challenge here Typical glass resonates with high amplitudes within the 40600Hz range and small amplitudes over the 600-2000Hz range (Al-Tememee, N., Al-Ani, S. and Al- Mashhadani, D. 2012). While this part of the pafern matches the desired resonance, glass effec;vely does not vibrate at frequencies above 2000Hz (Al-Tememee, N. et al. D. 2012), making it ineffec;ve for a violin. However, glass is s;ll worth inves;ga;ng for its use in the manufacture of ‘cellos, the sound frequencies of which almost never exceed 700Hz as ‘cellists are rarely required to play notes higher than an F5.
The ease of manufacture comes at the cost of complex internal structure. Glass has no fibres or hollow sec;ons or rows of interac;ng cells, and so its vibra;ons are much simpler. The whole sheet vibrates at once, and uniformly – an explana;on for the sharp overtones so commonly afributed to the sound of glass Though there is limited research into the more subjec;ve side of glass’ acous;c quality, acous;c issues such as these are not insurmountable. Just as years of luthiers’ innova;on have led to a solu;on to the wolf-tone (a note which becomes difficult to play as it causes the body of the instrument to vibrate awkwardly), it seems likely precise damping techniques can be put to use in perfec;ng glass sounds, if glass instruments are inves;gated fully.
Carbon-fibre-reinforced polymers (CFRP) are the product of weaving strips of carbon into a fabric then binding the laUce with polymer resin and lamina;ng into an inert sheet, which is cured at a high temperature and pressure into a solid material. They are widely used in the bows of stringed instruments, but hardly ever used to make the instrument itself. The fibres themselves have significant advantages – they are strong, lightweight, and flexible, and so before curing they are easily workable They help to mimic the fibres of tradi;onal wood, sugges;ng the resonance paferns will match well with wood. The fibres are also cross hatched, meaning the resul;ng composite is unlikely to break along the fibres in the way that wood does, making the overall instrument excep;onally durable.
Current composites are not too favourable in the world of instrument produc;on, because their final s;ffness limits their ability to carry sound While the strength and shafer resistance of CFRP may be favourable when making bows (wooden bows do not break infrequently, and do so almost always around the ;p, where the wooden fibres are parallel to typical impact direc;ons, such as falling head-on), it is normally not worth the overall sound reduc;on in en;re instruments. However, composites are recent discoveries, compared to wood, and there is plenty of scope for innova;on. There is much hope for carbon-fibre-reinforced polymers
Phenolics are made using a similar process to that of composites like CFRP Layers of material are subjected to heat and pressure and filled with polymer resin, just as for CFRP, but the difference is in the sorts of materials used. Fine organic materials – usually cofon, paper, felt, or wood powder – are selected for the base material of the composite The presence of organic fibres puts phenolics ahead of other materials, as changes to ;mbre are not such an issue, although the fibres in wood are aligned whereas those in phenolics are random, so there is s;ll further inves;ga;on to be done (Joseph, S. 2002) Regarding workability, the composites are easily strong enough for the task, but shaping into the precise structures of stringed instruments will require some innova;on (Joseph, S. 2002) From a sustainability perspec;ve, phenolics play a useful role in the recycling of waste wood
Variety among plas;cs is even greater than that of glass, and there is even more that can be done with them to alter their physical proper;es. There are several plas;cs recommended by the data, but rather than evaluate each one, instead the different families of plas;cs will be considered flexibly.
To start, ABS, PMMA (acrylic), polycarbonate, PVC, and POM (acetyl) are all low-quality plas;cs with structural applica;ons, the first of which is famous for its use in Lego bricks. The rest have less notable uses, including in shafer resistant panels, DVDs and plumbing, respec;vely Plas;cs such as these pride themselves in rigidity and impact resistance, but whilst they may be very useful in other applica;ons, they have no use in instrument produc;on – their proper;es do
their best to impede resonance and harshen the sound (Omnexus) On a similar theme, PET plas;cs – best known for their use in plas;c bofles – have very low compressive strength, nor can they be produced thick enough, to withstand the sheer 100N force exerted on the body of classical instruments by the strings
PEEK belongs to the polyketone family of polymers, all of which are quality plas;cs with a range of technical applica;ons. It is found in semiconductors in electronics, and as screws in machines due to its resistance to wear. Its bulk proper;es approximate that of human bone, and so it is oFen used for synthe;c transplants. To be strong without being rigid, and to be capable of maintaining complex shapes without breaking are strong indicators of suitable instrument material. Regarding workability, PEEK plas;cs can be machined easily with a CNC mill (Readingplas;c 2012)
As before, the absence of fibres poses the risk of incomparable sonority, but this ;me few of the regions of the sound spectrum from resona;ng PEEK match those of wood. PEEK produces small amplitudes from 20-200Hz and large amplitudes from 200-7000Hz, with the only matching region being the upper midrange to presence range frequencies of 600-2000Hz (Rodionov, L. and Rekadze, P. 2012) It therefore seems unlikely PEEK plas;cs could ever reproduce the sound quality of wood, despite its promising mechanical characteris;cs
The remaining materials from the data are epoxies – which are glue – and concrete and brick, which are far too imprac;cal for obvious reasons They need no further inves;ga;on.
Bows
There is much overlap between the acous;c requirements of soundboards and that of the frame of the bow; indeed some of this has been men;oned. However, besides the wood, the hair of the bow is another organic component of stringed instruments, which is accompanied by a range of inconvenient and expensive disadvantages yet to be solved. Typically made from the tail hair of white horses, bow hair is very suscep;ble to snapping, yet must be held with the right amount of tension for the instrument to sound. It also requires the regular applica;on of rosin, which has its own problems: correct bow hold has some of the finger;ps touching the bow hair, and the skin oils on the fingers react with rosin, forming a black paste around the hair which prevents the bow from engaging with the string effec;vely at this point.
Mechanical requirements of bow hair
When a string is plucked, it forms a sta;onary wave of its first harmonic, shiFing between two symmetrical curves that give the illusion of an ellipse when vibra;ng at speed. When a bow is drawn across the string, although the appearance is the same, the mo;on of the string is more complicated. In fact, the string develops a kink (known as a Helmholtz corner) joining two straight
lines from the nodes of the string (at the nut and the bridge of the instrument) in a V-shape. The kink traces the same ellip;cal path, making one complete journey each period of the vibra;on, thus producing sound of the same frequency as when plucked and having the same appearance at speed. This kind of movement is known as Helmholtz mo;on2 (Rossing 2010)
When the kink is between the bow and the nut, the sec;on of string under the bow moves with the bow, s;cking to it by fric;on. When the kink crosses the bow, the string is effec;vely unhooked and the sec;on of the string under the bow slips back against the direc;on of the bow. The slipping occurs during the short period in which the kink is instead between the bow and the bridge. When the kink crosses the bow a second ;me, the s;cking phase returns and the mo;on repeats.
Such mo;on can only occur under the specific condi;on that rosin on horsehair can provide. Fric;on between two surfaces differs when sliding and when sta;c. (Hence an object on the point of slipping may remain sta;onary, but if sliding will con;nue to slide.) During the s;cking phase, the parts of the bow and the string that are in contact travel at the same speed and thus experience sta;c fric;on, as they do not move rela;ve to one another. Meanwhile, during the slipping phase the string and the bow instead experience sliding fric;on. Rosin has a unique property which is that when heated, the coefficient of sta;c fric;on rises rapidly and the coefficient of sliding fric;on falls. Since the par;cles of rosin on the bow hair are so small, they heat up near-instantly from the fric;on. The fric;onal proper;es of rosin on horsehair are essen;al for enabling Helmholtz mo;on and producing a good sound. Without this, either the sta;c fric;on would not be great enough to ini;ate the mo;on against the tension in the string, or the sliding fric;on would be too great, and the string would stall or scrape in the slipping phase (Naiadseye 2016)
The coefficient of fric;on describes the interac;on between two materials , so a value cannot be afributed to just one. In this context, the two materials are the horsehair and the string, the coa;ng material of which varies from aluminium to silver. The most common, and by far the most researched, is steel. When a coefficient of fric;on is stated for just one material, it is in fact the coefficient between that material and steel.
The elas;c limit denotes the maximum tensile stress a material can withstand before experiencing permanent deforma;on. Each individual horsehair has an elas;c limit of approximately 100MPa (Yang, W., Yu, Y., Ritchie, R.O. and Meyers, M.A. 2020). The diameter of each hair is 200μm meaning the maximum tensile force a hair can withstand is around 3N (Yang W., Yu, Y., Ritchie, R.O. and Meyers, M.A. 2020). However, given there are between 160 and 180 individual hairs in every bow, together they should be able to withstand 500N of tensile force
Overall, an alterna;ve to horsehair and rosin would need to have a large difference between sta;c and sliding fric;on, as well being suitable for stretching across a bow. The coefficients of sta;c and kine;c fric;on at typical opera;ng temperatures are approximately 0.7 and 0.3
2 A helpful graphic for Helmholtz motion can be found here: https://plus.maths.org/issue31/features/woodhouse/Helm_anim.gif
respec;vely (Naiadseye 2016) These are the values other materials will be tested against. Further, to provide some advantage over horsehair and rosin, an alterna;ve must surpass the tensile strength of horsehair and not require regular treatment or involve rosin. Such alterna;ves may be in the form of hair-like fibres or as a band or strip.
Alterna*ves to horsehair in bows
Hardly any of the materials come close to matching horsehair and rosin (see Appendix B, blue plots), and none achieve the same ra;on of sta;c to dynamic fric;on, besides ice which is not feasible (ra;o shown by orange line). PVC is similar but has too low an elas;c limit, while hard steel and babbif are likely to be heavy enough to be a nuisance to the bowing arm.
Copper is promising as it is lightweight and can be drawn into strips or even hairs like typical bows Its tensile strength is suitably high, but its fric;on coefficients are closer together than ideal. Although steel is the most common, if there were another suitable string material, but one which paired with a copper bow to have useful fric;on coefficients, that would be advantageous. Using a reverse process to before, taking the bow hair material to be constant and changing string coa;ng, we can see if any of these combina;ons come close, but in fact they do not (see Appendix B, green plots). No string material – besides steel, of course – leads to fric;on coefficients within the same range as before.
While it is s;ll possible that a bow with copper hair may func;on well, the data makes this seem improbable. It is unlikely any alterna;ve will be found to supersede horsehair and rosin, however inconvenient, although to date none have been tried.
Conclusion
A wide range of materials have been considered in appropriate depth for their suitability in two landmark components of Western Classical stringed instruments. The interrela;onships for density, Young’s modulus, and internal fric;on in 46 different materials have been crossreferenced to leave a shortlist of 18. AFer considering further miscellaneous proper;es, carbonfibre-reinforced polymers and phenolics are most promising, as well as some glasses but only for use in ‘cellos. Meanwhile, data for 19 materials was compiled when inves;ga;ng alterna;ves for the hair of the bow. Applying the constraints on sta;c and dynamic fric;on coefficients between these materials and standard steel strings leF four alterna;ves, of which only one was feasible, and even this was unlikely to surpass standard bow hair.
However, the collected data gives only an indica;on of whether a par;cular material is suitable, as there is plenty unknown about the workings of acous;cs, and the answer to ‘what makes a good sound? ’ is highly contested. Much work is needed, including afempts to make and play instruments from these materials But for now, the industry of stringed instruments will remain ar;san.
Sources: Cambridge University Engineering Department (2011), Materials Data Book; AZO Materials, available at: hfps://www.azom.com/; among others.
Tungsten Carbide
Boron Carbide
Silicon Carbide
Alumina Aluminium Nitride
Silicon Nitride
Silicon
CFRP
Glass Ceramic SilicaSodaGlass-Lime Glass
Borosilicate Glass
BrickConcrete, typical
GFRP
Bamboo
Polymer Foam
PEEK
Phenolics
Stone
Acetal (POM)
PET Acrylic (PMMA)
PVC
Polystyrene (PS)
Nylons (PA) Polycarbonate (PC)
ABS
Cellulose Polymers (CA)
Polypropylene (PP)
Polyethylene (PE)
Teflon (PTFE) Epoxies
Polyurethane Thermoplastics (tpPU)
Ionomer (1)
Leather
Butyl Rubber EVA
Silicone Elastomers
Polyurethane Elastomers (elPU)
Natural Rubber (NR) Neoprene (CR)
Rigid Polymer Foam
Cork
Wood
Silicone Elastomers
Butyl Rubber
Nylons (PA)
Ionomer (1)
Polyethylene (PE)
Polyurethane
Thermoplastics (tpPU)
Polycarbonate (PC)
Polyurethane Elastomers (elPU)
EVA
PVC
Natural Rubber (NR)
Bamboo
Phenolics
Neoprene (CR)
Acrylic (PMMA)
BrickConcrete, typical Stone
Cellulose Polymers (CA)
Leather
ABS
CFRP GFRP
Soda-Lime Glass
Acetal (POM)
PEEK
PET
Silicon
Borosilicate Glass
Silicon Carbide
Glass Ceramic
Teflon (PTFE)
Polypropylene (PP)
Epoxies
Polystyrene (PS)
Density /kgm-3
Silica Glass
Alumina
Silicon Nitride
Boron Carbide
Aluminium Nitride
Tungsten Carbide
Polyurethane Elastomers (elPU)
Natural Rubber (NR)
Neoprene (CR)
Silicone Elastomers ABS
Nylons (PA)
Rigid Polymer Foam Wood
Ionomer (1)
Polyethylene (PE)
Polyurethane Thermoplastics (tpPU) PVC
Acrylic (PMMA)
Brick Concrete, typical Stone
Cellulose Polymers (CA)
Acetal (POM)
Polycarbonate (PC) PEEK
PET
Soda-Lime Glass
Borosilicate Glass
Glass Ceramic
Polypropylene (PP)
Epoxies
Polystyrene (PS)
Silica Glass
Alumina
Aluminium Nitride Boron Carbide
Silicon
Silicon Carbide
Silicon Nitride
Tungsten Carbide
CFRP
GFRP
Bamboo
Butyl Rubber EVA
Teflon (PTFE)
Phenolics
Young's Modulus /GPa
Appendix B
Sources: The Engineering Toolbox, available at: hfps://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/fric;oncoefficients-d_778.html ; AZO Materials, available at: hfps://www.azom.com/ ; among others.
Coefficient of Dynamiic Friction
On Steel
Coefficient of Static Friction
Aluminum
Babbitt
Brass
Bronze
Cadmium
Cast Iron
Chromium
Copper
Glass
Ice Lead
PVC
Steel (Hard)
Steel (Mild)
Teflon
Titanium
Titanium-Vanadium alloy
Zinc
Horsehair + rosin
Coefficient of Dynamiic Friction
On Copper
Coefficient of
Horsehair + rosin
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Zoya Mankhand
CREATIVE WRITING
Zoya Mankhand decided to write the screenplay ‘Gosha’ for her ERP as she is an aspiring filmmaker who feels very connected to the topic it is focused on. The project is centred around the ongoing war in Ukraine - the consequential horrors and reassuring humanity that this upheaval of social order has brought. Blending the written word, history, politics, anthropology and art this work’s focus is primarily people and the choices that they make. Creating artwork and a detailed explanation alongside it, the piece highlights the difference that just one day can make. Zoya is studying History, English Literature, Philosophy, Drama and Russian with a desire to pursue Anthropology at university and a career in film.
Harishan Jenirathan
DESIGN ENGINEERING
Harishan Jenirathan chose ‘Chaos Theory’ and ‘Turbulence’ as the focus of his ERP due to his fascination with the role chaos theory plays in fluid dynamics, particularly turbulence. The project delved into how chaos theory is rooted in turbulence and explored how turbulence, despite its chaotic nature, can be manipulated to optimise aircraft performance through biomimicry. Harishan is studying Physics, Design Engineering, Mathematics and Further Mathematics at A Level and is pursuing Aeronautical Engineering at university.
The beauty of disorder:
An introduction to chaos theory, its role in turbulence and why turbulence should be embraced
Introduction:
Chaos theory is the mathematical field of study which explores the unpredictability built into deterministic non-linear dynamical systems. It deals with systems that appear to be orderly (deterministic), but conceal chaotic behaviours, whilst also dealing with systems that appear to be chaotic, when, in fact, they have underlying order[22]. They are deterministic because they consist of a few differential equations, and aren’t in fact random, but are chaotic whenever its evolution depends on the initial conditions[22]. Thus, deterministic systems are not predictable, despite knowing the initial state of the system and its governing set of equations[22].
Recurrent characteristics of a chaotic system include:
i. No periodic behaviour
ii. Sensitivity to initial conditions
iii. Nonlinear dynamics
iv. Fractals
v. Feedback loops
Whilst the word Chaos, which comes from the Greek word “Khaos” (meaning ‘gaping void’) may imply randomness, it means a state of total confusion or unpredictability in the behaviour of a complex natural system, where small differences in initial conditions can produce drastically diverged outcomes for complex systems[8]. Chaotic systems are unstable since they have many variables, with exogenous factors, such as parameters, communication with other systems and small perturbations, included as random variables[25]. This prevents us from making any long-term predictions about the system. As chaotic systems have many variables, they become highly unstable and extremely sensitive to perturbations. Thus, even if the initial state is known and the governing laws of a system, only the near future state of the system is predictable , because as the chaotic system evolves from its initial state, it becomes increasingly chaotic and random.
Chaotic systems are extremely common in nature, with chaotic phenomena often being described by fractal maths (never-ending complex patterns, self-similar across different scales, that are created by repeating a simple process in an ongoing feedback loop) [13].
Figure 1 Example of a fractal- The Sierpinski Carpet Fractal- which has a dimension of log8/log3 ≈ 1.893
These phenomena can be found in rivers, clouds, trees, our hear t and the brains of living organisms. On a larger scale, chaotic systems can be spotted in meteorology, the solar system and fluid dynamics[13].
The discovery of Chaos theory:
Chaos came into focus in the 1960s, when meteorologist Ed Lorenz developed a mathematical model to simulate the way air moves in the atmosphere. He had 12 equations and 12 variables such as temperature and humidity. The computer would print out each time s tep as a row of 12 numbers, to see how the numbers would evolve over time. The breakthrough occurred when Lorenz decided to repeat a run, using a shortcut. He entered the numbers from halfway through a previous printout and then set the simulation. When Lorenz saw the results he was stunned. The new run followed the old one for a short while but then it diverged, and soon it was describing an entirely different state of the atmosphere[8]
The real reason for the difference came down to the fact that the printer was rounded to three decimal places, but the computer rounded to six. Thus, when he entered those initial conditions, the difference of less than one part in a thousand created totally different weather just a short time in the future. The tiny change in numbers led to a dramatic divergence in results, demonstrating no matter how small a deviation there is in the initial values of a simulation, the errors will accumulate rapidly, making a prediction worthless. Lorenz’s system displayed what’s become known as Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions (SDIC), one of the key components of a chaotic system[8]. The fact that reality can never be measured precisely enough makes it difficult to model real systems because the initial discrepancy between reality and measurements will always cause the model and reality to diverge in an unpredictable way, rendering it difficult to predict what exactly will happen in the future.
The double pendulum:
One of the simplest demonstrations of chaos theory is a double pendulum. It consists of two pendulums connected end to end. Whereas the motion of a single pendulum is predictable, it will go through an oscillatory motion and then come to equilibrium, the motion of a double pendulum is
not. With the double pendulum having two degrees of freedom, for small angles the pendulum gives us simple harmonic motion, similar to the linear motion of a double spring[8][16]. However, when the angles are larger, the motion becomes non-linear and seems chaotic. This is shown in figure 1, where the motion of the double pendulum is seen to be much more chaotic than the motion of the pendulum in figure 2. Figure 3 also shows how the motion of the double pendulum in figure 2 is chaotic as it produces a fractal pattern.
Figure 2 Graph showing the varying angles of the double pendulum over a period of 5 minutes, with the following initial position of a large angle
Figure 3 Graph showing the varying angles of the double pendulum over a period of 5 minutes, with the following initial position of a small angle
Figure 4 Zoomed in picture of the graph in figure 2, showing a fractal nature
Whilst the motion of a double pendulum can be described using a system of differential equations, derived from the equations of acceleration and the forces acting on the pendulum, the motion of the pendulum cannot be predicted by solving the equations.
The problem lies in the double pendulum system's extreme dependence on initial conditions [22] The behaviour of the system cannot be predicted if the initial conditions cannot be determined with 100% uncertainty with absolute confidence. Since it is impossible to attain that degree of certainty, the motion of a pendulum simply cannot be predicted. Even if two double pendulums were released from the same position at the same time, any arbitrarily small variation in their initial conditions will lead to drastic divergence in their trajectories in a very short period of time, with the divergence increasing exponentially, going back to Lorenz’s work on Sensitive Dependence on Initial conditions. The double pendulum system stresses how accurate predictions cannot be made about chaotic systems.
How is chaos theory related to turbulence?
The idea that deterministic systems can exhibit seemingly random and unpredictable behaviour connects chaos theory to fluid dynamics, especially turbulent flow [22]. Turbulent flow is a classic example of a chaotic system, with it being a nonlinear dynamical system, one of the main focuses of chaos theory.
Before analysing how and why turbulence is chaotic, turbulence must be defined first, which is quite hard to do. Quoting Richard Feynman, turbulence is the most important unsolved problem of classical physics. It is extremely difficult to rigorously define turbulent flow and as of yet, there isn’t a universally agreed upon definition. However, there are many characteristics that can be used to determine whether a flow is turbulent.
Turbulence, in essence is unpredictable and chaotic. It is sensitively dependant on initial conditions, making it impossible to render a precise deterministic prediction of its evolution and so it can only be thought about statistically, a key attribute of chaotic systems. Whilst it is governed by the NavierStrokes equations, they are almost impossible to solve mathematically and provide smooth solutions for any given set of initial conditions[8]
Another characteristic of turbulence is its composition of interactive eddies (swirling fluid structures), which span a huge range of sizes. Additionally, turbulent flow is dissipative; the energy of the larger eddies cascades into smaller eddies until the eddies reach the smallest scale and dissipated their energy to the fluid as heat, affecting the viscosity of the fluid[8]
Turbulent flow is also diffusive. It mixes and spreads things out throughout a fluid, such as the energy and momentum of isolated parts in the fluid to the rest of the fluid[8]. Turbulence may also include strange attractors (set of points in phase space which attracts all the trajectories in an area surrounding it, producing a fractal pattern) and fractals too, highlighting its chaotic nature.
What makes the Navier-Stokes equations chaotic?
The Navier-Stokes equations are a set of deterministic partial differential equations, relating to the velocity, pressure, temperature and density of a flowing liquid, that determine the motion of fluid[22][18]. They can be seen as Newton’s second law of motion but for fluids. Whilst they are not chaotic in a mathematical sense, turbulent flow (a chaotic phenomenon), arises from the NavierStokes equations it is governed by, particularly due to the nonlinear nature of the set of equations and their sensitivity to initial conditions.
Assuming that the fluid is Newtonian, incompressible and isothermal, the first equation is the conservation of mass within the fluid, also known as the continuity equation.
1. ∇ ���� = 0
Here, ���� represent the velocity of the fluid, a vector. The operator, ∇ , is called the divergence of a vector field. In this case the velocity, ���� ,is the vector field of the fluid. A fluid cannot simply just disappear in an area; it may change form but its mass is conserved. Since mass is conserved, the divergence across the fluid has to be zero, and hence the first Navier-Stokes equation.
2. ���� !" !# = F �������� + �������� $ ����
The second equation is the conservation of momentum, where u is the fluid velocity, p is the fluid pressure, ρ is the fluid density, and μ is the fluid dynamic viscosity. It is derived from Newtons’ Second law of ma =ΣF, where the sum of forces acting on a body is equal to its mass times acceleration[18].
Deriving the left side of the second equation from ma = ΣF for a single molecule of a fluid, it results in mass, m¸ being replaced by density, with the mathematical reasoning being that to consider each individual point, mass must be divided by volume, resulting in density, ����. Acceleration, a, is replaced with !" !# , as acceleration is the derivative of the velocity. To derive the right hand side of the equation, all the forces acting on a molecule of fluid need to be considered. This can be broken down into internal forces and external forces acting on the molecule in the fluid. The internal force is
the change in pressure from, written as the gradient of pressure, �������� The second internal force that is considered is viscosity, expressed as �������� $ ���� Finally, F denotes any external force that needs to considered, with it commonly being gravity[18]
Though, if the Navier-Stokes equation seems logical, how does it lead to exhibiting chaotic behaviour, such as turbulence? Once again, this is an example of a deterministic system that is unpredictable. One reason is the coupling of velocity and pressure, creating a feedback loop that amplifies perturbations, harking back to Lorenz’s idea of Sensitive Dependence on Initial Condition. The chaos in the Navier-Stokes equation also arises from the non-linear convective term of acceleration, %& %' +���� ∙ ∇���� (the partial differentiation of !" !# ), in the conservation of momentum equations[18]. Due to the fact that this term involves the product of two velocity vectors, its acceleration depends on the magnitude and direction of both vectors, making it nonlinear. Hence any convective flow, whether turbulent or not, will involve nonlinearity. However, the nonlinear convective term becomes larger as turbulent flow increases, to the point it is larger than the viscosity term, causing instability, with there being enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions, leading to the system becoming unpredictable and thus chaotic[10]. The coupled nature of the equation and its nonlinearity consequently makes solving the Navier-Stokes equations analytically almost impossible and as a result cannot be used to predict turbulent flow.
The Reynolds Number:
Other than the Navier-Stokes equation, turbulence can also be characterised by the Reynolds number. The Reynolds number, a dimensionless quantity also referred to as Re, is used to determine whether fluid flow is laminar or turbulent, by describing the ratio between inertial (forces that tend to move particles away from the layer of an object) and viscous forces (the internal resistive force provided by a fluid when subjected to a shear force on its surface) in a fluid[5] It is one of the primary governing factors in all viscous flows in which a numerical model is chosen based on a Reynolds number that has been previously determined, aiding the distinction between turbulent and laminar flows[5][24]
The Reynolds number can be calculated using the following equation:
where ρ (kg m-3) is the fluid density, V (m s-2) characterises velocity defining the flow, L (m) is a characterising length in the flow system, μ (Pa s) is the fluid molecular/dynamic viscosity and u (m2 s-1) is the kinematic viscosity[19][24]
Using dimensional analysis, it can be proven that Re is dimensionless since :
In comparison to the inertial force, viscous forces in a laminar flow are often larger, thus a lower Reynolds number[5][24]. The flow changes from laminar to turbulent when the Reynolds number rises. Turbulent flow, as mentioned before, is characterised by a range of eddy structures and is unpredictable, chaotic, and unsteady. The crucial Reynolds number is the value at which the flow changes from laminar to turbulent.
A multitude of variables, including the surrounding disturbance and the smoothness of the flow surface, influence the changeover Reynolds number. Its value is about 2,300 for internal flows with a smooth surface and up to 20,000 for external flows around a barrier[5]
Useful applications of turbulence:
Despite earning its reputation for causing passengers discomfort and anxiety during flight, turbulence also offers a plethora of benefits in terms of the aerodynamic efficiency of planes. Whilst the intuitive train of thought that turbulence, if anything, would cause aerodynamic instabilities (due to its chaotic nature), it does also offer benefits in terms of enhancing aerodynamic performance, with a lot of it to do with boundary layer control over the aerofoil of a plane [1]
As undisturbed air meets the leading edge of the aerofoil, molecules of the fluid near the aerofoil are disturbed and move around the aerofoil, locally sticking to the wing[4]. However, as the air continues to slide across the aerofoil this layer of air adhering to it will grow thicker. This is because the molecules of the fluid just above the surface are slowed down in their collisions with the molecules stuck to the surface, which in turn slow down the flow of air above them[4][7]. As a result, the further away a fluid is from the surface, the fewer the collisions affected by the object surface In this region, the air moves slower than the velocity of undisturbed air[4]. This region is known as the boundary layer and it is determined by the viscous forces[4]
The boundary layer on a wing section is shown in figure 5. However, the boundary layer thickness is fairly exaggerated in figure 5, with boundary layers being much smaller in real life[4]. For instance, the boundary layer is just about 15 cm thick at the trailing edge (where the boundary layer is hypothesized to be the thickest) of a Boeing 747-400[4]
Now if the speed near the surface of the aerofoil is lower, it will translate into a boundary layer with lower energy. This is an issue because a lower boundary layer energy would lead to the boundary layer struggling to follow the surface of the aerofoil as the pressure increases gradually[1][4]. At the point that the energy of the boundary layer is not sufficient, the boundary layer will cease to flow and instead separate from the surface, due to the pressure and frictional forces overcoming the fluid’s inertial forces[1][4].
Beyond the separation point, the wing starts to experience air flowing in the reverse direction, as airflow departs from the wing contour near the trailing edge, forming a large wake[1]. This eventually leads to the wing entering an aerodynamic stall, since the wake redistributes the flow of
air over the rest of the aerofoil and consequently seriously reduces the lift generated by the wing [1] This is most common when the angle of attack is increased, since the pressure gradient also accordingly increases, as shown in figure 6[1]
Figure 6 Flow separation at various angles of attack, with the wake turbulence increasing as the angle of attack increases
How can flow separation and the turbulence that comes with it be delayed? Turbulence.
Turbulence, by mixing more energetic air with air close to the aerofoil’s surface, energises the boundary layer, thus increasing the kinetic energy near the surface[1][4]. Subsequently, the momentum near the aerofoil increases and thus the aerofoil’s shear stress (a unit area amount of force acting on the fluid parallel to the surface) increases. This increases friction drag (friction of a fluid against the surface of an object), accumulating in the effect of delaying separation as the velocity profile of the fluid (at higher Reynolds numbers) ‘sticks’ better to the aerofoil[4][27]
In order to increase the kinetic energy of the boundary layer, vortex generators are often incorporated. These are small structures (as tall as the thickness of the boundary layer) , which resemble the shape of fins, that commonly protrude from the front of the wing, the area of highest air velocity[4][27] They energise the boundary layer by drawing in high energy flow from above the boundary layer (free-stream air) and mixing it with the air within the boundary layer via induced vortices (a component of turbulence) By ensuring the boundary layer sticks to the wing for longer, the vortex generators reduce the effects of pressure drag, since the pressure difference between the leading and trailing edge is reduced[1][27] Whilst that may allow the aircraft to operate at a higher angle of attack before air flow begins to separate again, the induced vortices create downwash (putting a force on the air and thereby doing work), resulting in accounting for additional power (in the form of ‘induced power’) for the rate at which the trailing vortices are supplied with kinetic energy[14] Consequently, vortex generators are only implemented to correct an existing problem , rather than favourably being used to reduce boundary air flow separation due to the additional power they require[4]. Nonetheless, they are still crucial in increasing take-off performance of existing aeroplanes, due to their characteristics of improving flow around control surfaces.
Figure 7 Example of Vortex Generators
Continuing with vortices, the beneficial use of vortices can be seen in nature too, when looking at the flight mechanics of bats. One of the staple features in the flight dynamics of bats are leading edge vortices (LEVs)[9][26] These are formed when the bats wings cuts through the air on its downstroke, causing the air to move in a circular motion around the wing[9] Since the pressure of a vortex increases as you move away from the core, these LEVs reduce the pressure of the region above the wing, thereby generating lift[9] The lift generated is conserved on the upstroke due to how the upstroke sheds the vortex away from the wing, allowing bats to sustain their flight when manoeuvring at low speeds[9]. Bats’ abilities to actively change its wing curvatures also helps utilise LEVs by manipulating their formation, augmenting their agility by maintaining lift at high angles of attack without stalling. The intricate mechanics of bat flight has influenced the design of micro air vehicles, such as the Honeywell T-Hawk MAV and it won’t be long before some of these characteristics are seen in aeroplanes, with shape-changing aerofoils being an unfeasible yet conceivable concept[9][26]
To maximise the effects of turbulence, however, it is not always required to induce vortices. Rather, you can almost ‘ride’ on turbulence. When analysing the acceleration pattern in a female golden eagle (in a Cornell-University led study), it was found to be “highly irregular”, just like the typical paths of air particles in turbulent airflow[21] The acceleration patterns were congruent with the atmospheric turbulence, with the eagle using a flight path in which vortices pushed it in the right direction[21] All the while, it reaches its destination, getting there a little faster, and using less energy. It’s not just eagles either; hummingbirds, known for ludicrously consuming large amounts of fuel, are able to migrate over long distances due to their skill of riding on tailwinds[14]
Birds won’t be the only creatures gifted with the edge of riding on turbulence for much longer though, with Airbus conceptualising the idea of ‘ Fello’fly’. The concept draws inspiration from the Vshaped formations in which geese fly- a technique known as wake energy retrieval[2][14]. As birds flap their wings, the result of streamlines swirling upwards behind their wingtips creates a wake The
vortices in the wake evolve downstream and subsequently the turbulence is concentrated to the outer upwash sides of the vortices, resulting in smooth currents of upwash. All the birds (except for the lead bird) benefit from the upwash as it assists the birds to stay aloft, since the free lift allows for the birds to throttle back and expend less energy. Like birds, aircrafts create a wake vortex behind them as they fly too. Thus, flying together could help aircraft retrieve the lost kinetic energy in the wake by intricately positioning a follower aircraft in the upwash of the lead aircraft’s wake, thereby reducing engine thrust and fuel consumption. If done correctly, it has been hypothesised to reduced CO2 emissions by between 3 and 4 million tonnes per year within the aviation sector, with smallscale testing indicating signs of promise[3]
However, not all is good. Trailing vortices from wingtips are ultimately dangerous, with them creating whirlwinds of downwash which force each other down When looking at a Boeing 747-400 on final approach and using the equation Γ = W/ρVb, where Γ is the ‘circulation’ of the vortices around a wing (meters of circumference times meters per second), W is weight (3 x 106N), ρ is air density (1.24 kgm-3), V is approach speed (70 ms-1) and b is wingspan(65m), Γ computes to a staggering 530 metres per second squared per second[14] The tangential speed of one of these vortices would be more than 2.5 ms-1[14]. If a following plane were to get caught in the downwash in the efforts of flying in the upwash, it could result in drastic reductions in lift, possibly causing the plane to stall. Whilst the separation rules for air traffic are designed to circumvent these risks, it does make it much harder for the implementation of ‘Fello’fly’, with multiple considerations having to be taken of the positioning of planes at rendezvous[3]
‘Fello’fly’ is not the only means of capitalising on the upwash produced by vortex flow. In fact, delta wings (mainly used in supersonic fighter aircraft), known for their very high stall angle, use the principle of vortex lift to make agile manoeuvres at high angles of attack[17] More importantly, paper airplanes generate their lift using this principle too!
Figure 8 Example of a delta wing seen on the Eurofighter Typhoon
At high angles of attack, vortices begin to flow along the leading edge, as a result of airflow from the lower surface of the delta wing flowing outboard and over the wingtip[20] A distinctive feature of these vortices, however, are the fact that they remain stable. As the vortices are shed from the leading edge, ‘secondary vortices’ are formed, drawing air over the vortex sheets (since the axial flow of the vortices are up to 3 times faster than the freestream airflow) and accelerating it downwards[20]. The acceleration of the flow in the vortices result in an increase in the increase of
lift, known as vortex/ non-linear lift[20] Vortex lift in crucial in delta wings, with it accounting for almost 30% of the total wing lift[23][17] The graph in figure 9 demonstrates this, with potential lift line excluding the lift generated through vortices, and the total lift line considering vortex lift too, emphasising how vortex lift counteracts the low-lift curve slope of delta wings (due to the high friction drag of delta wings).
Figure 9 Graph of the lift produced by a delta wing at an angle of attack of 75 degrees
Conclusion:
All things considered, turbulence is innately capricious. From the roots of its chaotic nature (despite it being ‘governed’ by a set of equations) to the fact that it can reduce drag and increase lift, but also increase drag and reduce lift.
Considering the chaotic nature of the Navier-Stokes equation, the turbulence modelled by CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) could be inaccurate and turbulent itself! In spite of all the advances made in CFD, the "deterministic" system governed by the non-linear Navier Stokes Equations will produce unstable and unpredictable behaviour: one of the difficulties with modern CFD. Subsequently, we are aware that CFD is still unrealistic and simplified, with the majority of differential equations utilised in the dynamical systems, that model nature, lacking solutions and, in any event, modelling the wrong thing anyway. Ultimately, these are idealised approximations are chaotic systems themselves, and are solved on computers by the use of computational techniques that are likewise chaotic!
Whilst engineers want to suppress turbulence, it is inevitable. Ultimately, at larger scales, it is near impossible to suppress turbulent flow and maintain laminar flow. Due to the particular set of values of viscosity, speed and smoothness a fluid is restricted to, in order for the viscous force of the fluid to be greater (relating back to the Reynolds number), it is mathematically more likely for turbulence to occur. Certain insects do manage to maintain laminar flow, however, when working with larger objects, the inertial forces of the fluid are more likely to dominate, inducing turbulence Thus, if it cannot be completely avoided, why not embrace the chaos? Turbulence does pose challenges and potential threats, but taking a leaf from nature’s book, there are many useful applications of turbulence, a wide range of which can already been seen in action (i.e vortex generators), helping reduce the extent of drag and enhancing flight performance. As seen with concepts like ‘Fello’fly’, biomimicry paves the way for creating sustainable solutions to optimise turbulence, validating the
fact that when orchestrated wisely, turbulence -despite its unruly behaviour- can be extremely advantageous
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Having long been fascinated by the wonders of organic chemistry, Dawei Tao has always questioned whether the carbon in biochemical structures could be replaced by silicon. In his ERP, he explores the possibility of silicon-based life through comparing the chemistry of silicon to carbon. Dawei is studying Maths, Further Maths, Physics, Chemistry and hopes to study Computer Science at university.
Is Silicon-Based Life Possible?
Dawei Tao L6C1 Extended Research Project 2023/2024
1.1 Introduction
All of life on Earth as we know it* is carbon-based – indeed, the entire field of ‘organic’ chemistry is dedicated to studying carbon-containing compounds. With its ability to form an essentially infinite set of complex and diverse compounds, carbon is the fundamental building block for the structures of life But why carbon? Could there not be an alternative element to replace it as the basis for life?
The immediately obvious candidate is silicon, the element directly below carbon in the Periodic Table. Perhaps surprisingly, silicon is the second most abundant element in the Earth’s crust – 27.7% by mass, after oxygen (Royal Society of Chemistry) – yet life on Earth is carbon-based, not silicon-based. In fact, silicon plays an almost nonexistent role in earthly biochemistry.
It is entirely possible that extraterrestrial life† , which may have developed in conditions vastly unlike those on Earth, would possess radically different biochemistry than life as we know it (Rampelotto, 2010; Bains, 2004; Schulze-Makuch & Irwin, 2006). Water and hydrocarbons are often regarded as promising signs in the search for extraterrestrial life (McKay, 2014; Benner, et al., 2004) – for good reason: the assumption that extraterrestrial life would be somewhat similar to life on Earth is a useful one, in that it provides us with a starting point to narrow down where we could search. At the same time, we only have the singular example of carbon-based life on Earth upon which to extrapolate, and this narrow-minded ideology could very well be restricting the search for life.
With this in mind, we aim to evaluate the suitability and viability of silicon as a basis for life, through closely analysing its chemistry in comparison to carbon. We follow with a computational investigation into the interactions between silicon and oxygen.
1.2 The Chemistry of Life
Before considering the potential of silicon as a basis for life, it would be helpful to have some semblance of what we are searching for when referring to ‘life’ As it happens, this is an extraordinarily difficult concept to define, remaining a subject of much contention. Where does chemistry end, and biology begin? What lies in the grey area in between of biochemistry?
However, this is far outside the scope of this project. Instead, we will identify some general features of life and consider some fundamental prerequisites for these features to emerge. Of course, our only reference is life on earth, and there is no guarantee that extraterrestrial life would bear any resemblance to it; nevertheless, it is still probable that any biochemistry would need to fulfil these requirements, so considering whether an alternative biochemistry meets them will be a helpful endeavour in determining the viability of an alternative biochemistry (Pace, 2001; Jones, 2003; Benner, et al., 2004; Jacob, 2015; Cockell, 2016)
1.2.1 Complexity & Diversity
Although life may not necessarily have to be complex, all of life on Earth is unimaginably so, both in terms of biochemistry and behaviour It seems reasonable to conclude that, in order for the complex behaviours of life to emerge, there must be sufficient underlying chemical complexity to enable this. Life needs a variety of compounds and structures with different properties and interactions to provide it with diverse functionality and versatility
* We use this phrase as we have yet to discover all of life on Earth – there could be incredible and exotic lifeforms here that have escaped discovery.
† If it exists.
Organisms on earth are based on organic chemistry, the chemistry of compounds containing carbon–carbon bonds – hence the term ‘carbon-based life’. One of the things that makes carbon so special is its ability to bond covalently to not only a variety of elements, but especially other carbon atoms (Bains, 2004; Gobato, et al., 2022; Petkowski, et al., 2020) This is known as catenation, where many atoms of the same element bond to form chains, branches, rings and other structures In the case of carbon, these structures could essentially continue on endlessly Crucially, this allows large molecules, and a large number of different molecules, to be built. In this way, carbon acts as a ‘skeleton’ element, providing a backbone for the structure of the entire compound much like the skeleton in our bodies.
However, despite the practically infinite number of possible hydrocarbons, their chemistry is relatively monotonous. To unlock the chemical diversity essential for life, other elements known as heteroatoms are needed (Petkowski, et al., 2020; Benner, et al., 2004) They ‘attach’ onto the carbon skeleton, either individually or together as functional groups, altering its properties and providing biochemical functionality. Generally, this is a result of their different electronegativity and electron configuration. Depending on the specific elements, their position and the other elements they are bonded to, the properties of a compound can change drastically.
Figure 1 Dopamine, a ‘reward’ neurotransmitter commonly associated with pleasure and love. It features an aromatic benzene ring with 2 hydroxyl groups (–OH), and a primary amine (–NH2).
With even just a tiny set of elements – oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulphur being the most common in biochemistry
– an incredibly vast range of compounds can be formed. For instance, proteins are polymers of amino acid monomers linked together in the thousands. Yet most amino acids contain only oxygen and nitrogen heteroatoms, with a select few involving sulphur as well. This shows that, with sufficient diversity and versatility at a small scale, there is potential for incredible diversity at a larger scale by using these simple building blocks (Petkowski, et al., 2020)
1.2.2 Reactivity & Stability
A careful balance between reactivity and stability is required for the rich processes of life. For one, the reactants must be reactive enough to assemble into structures of increasing size and complexity, which need to be stable enough to not immediately break down. Yet the compound cannot be totally inert, or it would serve no biochemical purpose; so it also needs to be reactive enough, or more specifically have reactive parts, in order to provide functionality
This is particularly critical for the skeleton element: as the basis of every biochemical compound, it will form the basis of their properties – particularly the shape – and be hugely influential in the overall workings of that biochemistry Without a stable skeleton, none of the large biochemical structures essential to life would be able to form. As such, the skeleton element needs to both be able to form strong and stable bonds to itself, and be able to bond with a variety of other elements.
Again, diversity is the key – with access to a larger repertoire of elements, there is a greater spectrum of stable and reactive compounds that are able to form This provides life with the versatility it needs to evolve and survive
Figure 2. Adenosine triphosphate (ATP), a key transporter of energy within the human body. Its biochemical function stems primarily from the phosphate groups at the end.
1.2.3 Movement & Solvent
Movement is a key feature of life. Fundamentally, particles need to be able to move and collide with each other in order to react, and at the scale of a significantly larger organism, transporting substances to maintain life processes is essential. Thus, life requires a fluid medium in which particles can move around. This is known as a solvent Water, the solvent on earth, is widely considered to be the only possible solvent for life (Jacob, 2015; McKay, 2014; Jones, 2003), but alternatives have been proposed too, such as ammonia, nitrogen, methane and even sulphuric acid (Bains, et al., 2021; Bains, 2004)
Any one of the aforementioned requirements alone would likely not be enough for life to emerge (Pace, 2001); all of them are critical for the formation and continued existence of life, and will both influence and be influenced by the other factors.
1.3 The Chemistry of Silicon
1.3.1
Why Silicon?
Silicon lies in group IV (14) of the Periodic Table, and so holds many similarities with carbon directly above it. Most notably, both elements have 4 electrons in their outer shells, and so are tetravalent (tending to form 4 covalent bonds). It is for this reason that silicon is often suggested as a replacement for carbon
As specified earlier, one of the key properties of a skeleton element is its ability to bond repeatedly with itself to form large, complex structures. To this end, there are a number of other candidates other than carbon (sulphur, boron, etc.), but none which possess the same potential structural diversity as silicon (Petkowski, et al., 2020) As was illustrated earlier though, this is by no means the only requirement for an element to provide a basis for life.
Table 1 Comparison of key properties of carbon and silicon (Royal Society of Chemistry)
Silicon chemistry is incredibly diverse. Like carbon, it can bond with a variety of elements, including the heteroatoms common to carbon-based life – oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulphur – as well as many metals Furthermore, since silicon has 3 electron shells (whereas carbon has 2), it has access to the empty 3d subshells that allow it to achieve hypervalency by expanding its octet – forming pentacoordinate and hexacoordinate compounds with silicon bonded to 5 or even 6 other atoms (Petkowski, et al., 2020; Tamao, 2008)
Figure 3. Sulphuric acid (H2SO4) and ammonia (NH3).
All this suggests silicon has a strong potential of being able to provide a basis for life in the way that carbon does, and could even unlock chemistry unknown to carbon through its hypervalency . However, examining the differences between the 2 elements closer reveals there nonetheless exist significant differences between them that drastically differentiates their chemistry.
1.3.2 Core Properties
Fundamentally, a silicon atom is larger than a carbon atom. While carbon has 2 electron shells and an atomic radius of 170 pm, silicon has a 3rd shell that increases its atomic radius up to 210 pm (table 1). This difference may appear tiny, but at the similarly tiny scale of chemistry it has enormous consequences. Silicon’s larger atomic radius means that it forms bonds with a longer bond length – which makes them weaker. In contrast, the bonds carbon forms are very strong.
Table 2 Comparison of (rounded) average enthalpies and lengths for carbon and silicon bonds (Royal Society of Chemistry; Petkowski, et al., 2020) Data for some bonds is unavailable.
As a result of having more electron shells (and so a larger atomic radius and more electron shielding), silicon is also more electropositive (less electronegative) than carbon, which further influences its bonding behaviour.
Table 3 Pauling scale electronegativity values for common elements in earth biochemistry (PubChem, 2024)
Almost all of the common heteroatoms in earthly biochemistry are more electronegative than carbon*. With silicon this difference is greatly amplified, meaning the bonds it forms are even more polarised – which makes them especially susceptible to chemical attack (Petkowski, et al., 2020) (the Si–O bond is a notable exception; this is discussed further in 1.3.4) Critically, silicon is less electronegative than even hydrogen, which means silicon becomes δ+ in almost all compounds, perfect for nucleophiles (especially oxygen) to attack.
Figure 5 Comparison of bond polarities in methane (CH4), and silane (SiH4).
This combination of bond lengths, strengths and polarities has pronounced ramifications. In organic molecules, the polar bonds between carbon and heteroatoms provide reactivity and functionality to a molecule, while the C –H bond provides general stability. In stark contrast, the bond polarities in silicon compounds are so great that they result in molecules being unstable, and the reversed polarity of the Si–H bond means even the simplest silicon analogues of carbon compounds may have very different properties.
1.3 3 Multiple Bonding
The disparities in the bonding capabilities between silicon and carbon is further highlighted through silicon’s inability to form double and triple bonds (Gobato, et al., 2022) Fundamentally, a covalent bond is an overlap of orbitals between 2 atoms, and for different kinds of covalent bonds the orbitals overlap in different ways.
A single bond consists of a sigma bond, the head-on overlap of 2 lobes of 2 orbitals. Double bonds consist of a sigma bond and an additional pi bond. For a pi bond to form, 2 orbitals perpendicular to the bonding plane approach each other side-on, such that 4 lobes overlap This lateral overlap requires the orbitals to be closer than for a single bond† , which is not a problem for carbon due to its small atomic and covalent radius. However, this is much more difficult for silicon to achieve: in a Si–Si bond, the atoms are further apart, so they have to be brought much closer to allow overlap of the p orbitals (Petkowski, et al., 2020; Matsuo & Hayakawa, 2018) A Si≡Si triple bond requires 2 pi bonds, which is even more unfavourable and unstable due to the poor overlap of the p orbitals.
* Hydrogen, phosphorus and boron are exceptions.
† Bringing them closer requires energy, hence the bond enthalpy is lower than simply double that of a single bond.
Figure 6 Single and double bonds illustrated through sigma (���� ) and pi (����) bonds (some non-bonding orbitals are not shown). In reality, when carbon and silicon bond they undergo orbital hybridisation, where the p and s orbitals combine to form sp hybrid orbitals with the characteristics of both.
In fact, silicon double and triple bonds are exceptionally rare, with exceedingly few cases ever being discovered in nature. Only fairly recently have attempts at synthesising compounds with double and triple-bonded silicon succeeded (Sekiguchi, 2004; Okazaki, 2001). In all of these, the structure is kinetically stabilised by sterically ‘bulky’ substituents on either side of the bond (such as phenyl groups), which provide a physical barrier to species that would otherwise cleave the bond (Matsuo & Hayakawa, 2018) This is promising, but it must be emphasised that these compounds were synthesised with great difficulty, suggesting that incorporating multiple bonding into a silicon-based biochemistry to the same extent as in carbon-based biochemistry would be highly unviable.
The ability of a scaffold element to form double and triple bonds is by no means essential, but is very helpful (Gobato, et al., 2022; Pace, 2001). In carbon-based biochemistry, compounds containing double and triple bonds are generally more reactive, and it allows more chemical diversity to be unlocked with the same set of elements (Petkowski, et al., 2020) Restricted rotation about a double bond also provides molecules with the ability to lock parts of their shape, as seen in unsaturated fats.
1.3.4
Oxygen Affinity
A critical weakness of silicon in comparison to carbon is its extreme affinity for oxygen (Bains, et al., 2021; Cockell, 2016; Jacob, 2015) Compared to other bonds silicon can form, the remarkable strength and stability of the Si–O bond makes it difficult for silicon to bond with anything else in the presence of oxygen This also makes existing compounds of silicon highly vulnerable to chemical attack by compounds containing oxygen – most notably water, the solvent of life on earth. Many silicon compounds (especially larger ones), even if initially stable, are rapidly broken down and oxidised in the presence of oxygen (Jacob, 2015) Very few silicon bonds are stable in water, with most being rapidly hydrolysed (Petkowski, et al., 2020)
Carbon can easily polymerise with itself, but silicon tends to polymerise with oxygen to form silica lattices consisting of Si–O bonds – also known as sand. The extreme stability of silica makes it very difficult to break apart or attach other heteroatoms to it.
Figure 7 Amorphous silica (SiO2) The Si–O bond has an almost 50% higher bond enthalpy than the Si–H bond (see table 2), and about double that of the Si–Si bond, which makes its formation incredibly favourable in comparison.
This almost entirely eliminates the possibility of silicon-based life on Earth, where water is abundant. On Earth, life revolves around the 2 key processes of photosynthesis and respiration – both of which are closely tied to oxygen – for energy storage and release, respectively (Cockell, 2016; Dessy, 1998). In respiration, sugars (usually glucose, C6H12O6) are oxidised to CO2 and H2O. As a gas, CO2 can be efficiently removed from the organism as a waste product, and H2O can even be recycled by the body In comparison, silicon would be oxidised to silica, a solid. Removing this from an organism’s body would present yet another hurdle for silicon -based life, that only becomes increasingly challenging as scale increases (Petkowski, et al., 2020; Dessy, 1998)
Similarly, photosynthesis fixes CO2 into glucose; this would take enormous amounts of energy with silica, which makes it unviable as an energy source There have been suggestions that silicon life could obtain its silicon from elsewhere, such as silicic acid, H4SiO4 (Bains, 2004) However, the silica released from respiration would still need to be recycled into the ecosystem in some way, such that silicon in the environment is be continually recycled – otherwise, silicon life would not be able to sustain itself (Cockell, 2016)
1.3.5
Extraterrestrial Environments
Considering silicon’s potential only under conditions we are familiar with on Earth would provide a woefully incomplete picture. Given life on Earth’s remarkable capacity to survive under extreme conditions, it would seem plausible that alternative biochemistries which may be even more suited to these conditions would be able to do the same. There are 2 main environmental factors to consider: temperature and solvent.
Although there are many possible solvents, they can be broadly split into 2 groups – protic and aprotic. These refer to whether a solvent ionises to produce protons (H+ ions). For instance, water dissociates to form H3O+ and OH-, and ammonia to NH4 + and NH2 -. Protic solvents tend to be more aggressive (like water attacking silicon), though this may help drive reactions and biological activity, as is the case with water.
One environment suggested as possibility well-suited for silicon-based life is a cold, aprotic solvent (at temperatures below 100 °C), such as liquid nitrogen (Petkowski, et al., 2020) It is here that silicon’s weaker bonds and greater reactivity may present itself as a strength rather than a weakness. Despite low temperatures not being conducive to life, many silicon compounds that would otherwise be too unstable and reactive at higher temperatures could be much more suited to these conditions, where they become much more stable, but can still react in spite of the low temperature However, solubility poses a significant barrier: at these temperatures, large, complex molecules have very low solubility, which makes it difficult for a cold solvent to harbour life
There are many other extreme environments which have been proposed, including concentrated sulphuric acid as a solvent, and carbon planets with a silicon-carbon hybrid biochemistry, which would be of interest for further study.
1.4 Computational Investigation
To investigate the impact of oxygen on silicon, I developed an application to run experiments simulating particle collisions. The aim of these experiments was not to obtain numerically accurate results, but rather to allow qualitative observations to be made.
1.4.1 Model
A Monte Carlo approach was chosen, where reactions are modelling probabilistically and the same experiment is repeated over many runs to provide a more accurate picture Due to difficulties in perfectly modelling particle interactions at the atomic scale, a number of simplifications and assumptions were made.
Simplification Notes
The space is 2-dimensional. The simulation was originally intended to be 3-dimensional, but this was not achieved due to technical constraints.
General kinds of reactions are modelled rather than specific interactions
We refer to the reactants and products as ‘particles’ rather than ‘atoms’ or ‘compounds’. We use ‘Si’ to denote silicon-containing compounds, ‘O’ to represent oxidising agents, and ‘Si–O’ to represent oxidised silicon.
Particles are perfectly spherical. In reality, the shapes, structures and electron density distributions of molecules have significant influences on their interactions.
Each collision has a fixed probability of yielding a reaction.
In reality, distance, orientation, location of collision, and velocities greatly influence the possibility of a reaction occurring.
There are no intermolecular forces. Intermolecular forces are one of the most important factors governing how particles behave, but accurately modelling them is incredibly difficult.
Table 4 Key simplifications of the model.
Although these may have adverse impacts on the accuracy of the model, it was with these in mind that the probabilitybased model was chosen. While the exact numbers and ways in which they influence reactions may be complex, they all share the same outcome of changing the probability of a successful collision occurring – which the probabilistic model can inherently incorporate by considering results across a spectrum of possibilities.
1.4.2 Procedure
• A closed container is filled with 400 particles.
• These are randomly assigned an initial position and velocity.
• Each particle’s velocity is scaled such that the system as a whole has a fixed total kinetic energy – this was kept as a control variable throughout all experiments.
• The timer is started and the particles are left to move and collide.
• Continuous collision detection is used to avoid missed collisions between high -speed particles.
• Upon collisions between 2 particles, there is a fixed pre-determined probability of a ‘reaction’ occurring.
• If this is the case, the 2 particles coalesce into 1 composite particle.
• Otherwise, they bounce off each other elastically.
• The experiment is left to run for a suitable number of ticks (1200 was determined to be suitable) until an
Figure 8 Application window when running. Particle kinds are denoted by their different colours
1.4.3 Logistics
We define 2 kinds of tests for each experiment – pessimistic and optimistic – as follows:
Favourability for Silicon Oxygen Concentration Concatenation Probability
Pessimistic lower higher lower
Optimistic higher lower higher
This allows us to observe potential outcomes at the extremes, which will provide a more useful and flexible picture of the possibilities. A variety of conditions were investigated, the results of which are discussed below. In all experiments the goal is to observe silicon’s ability to concatenate while in the presence of oxygen, which we hypothesise will significantly disrupt this process.
1.4.4 Silicon in Oxygen
In this first experiment, particles of silicon and oxygen are placed at low concentrations amidst other generic particles. We allow 2 reactions to occur under the following conditions:
Table 5 Conditions and reactions for experiment 1.
Once Si–Si and Si–O are formed, they do not react further. We hypothesise that the presence of oxygen will inhibit silicon from concatenating, and, if the distortion in probability is high enough, may prevent Si–Si particles from forming at all.
Figure 9 Heatmap plot of results from experiment 1 with time along the x axis and particle count along the y axis Points in the plot are assigned colours depending on the frequency of that value occurring. Lighter values correspond to greater frequency, thus illustrating the general trend.
Despite the lower concentration of O than Si, we notice similar levels of Si–Si and Si–O formation in the optimistic case; however in the pessimistic case, Si–O formation is greatly increased, while Si–Si formation noticeably flattens Thus can expect Si–O formation to always dwarf Si–Si formation, though this may not be an absolute barrier to concatenation of silicon.
1.4.5 Silicon in Oxygen with Further Oxidation
Building upon the previous experiment, we now allow the Si-O particles formed to react further. We define an additional oxidation reaction:
Table 6 Reaction conditions for experiment 2.
We hypothesise the ability for Si–O to further oxidise Si after formation will further restrict the formation of Si–Si.
Figure 10. Results for experiment 2. Particle counts for Si–O and Si–O–Si are totalled, since they both represented oxidised silicon.
While the runs appear to be much more varied in the pessimistic case compared to earlier, we otherwise surprisingly note no discernible change in the results.
1.4.6 Silicon in Oxygen with Displacement
Even if silicon is able to successfully form non-oxygen compounds in the presence of oxygen, there remains every chance that oxygen attacks these compounds and breaks them apart This is the key barrier to silicon life being viable in the presence of oxygen.
In this final experiment, we define 2 additional displacement reactions:
Table 7 Reaction conditions for experiment 3.
Figure 11 Results for experiment 3.
The difference is much more apparent: in both the pessimistic and optimistic case , Si–O formation becomes much more ubiquitous, and there is visible evidence of Si–Si particles being broken apart where the graph rises and falls The pessimistic case very vividly demonstrates the effect of oxygen’s presence, as the line for Si –Si remains firmly fixed at the bottom.
1.4.7 Evaluation
This was admittedly a naïve approach to modelling reactions, and did not incorporate the intricacies of physical and chemical reactions. It also suffers from the impossibility of accurately determining the likelihood of an event over the billions of years that the universe has existed – with even an astronomically tiny probability, over such a timeframe said probability can become very large
Nevertheless, while many simplifications were made, the overall point of the experiment – to qualitatively investigate the interactions between silicon and oxygen – has been achieved. The results demonstrate the challenges silicon faces if it is to provide a basis for life in the presence of oxygen.
1.5 Conclusion
Silicon holds many similarities to carbon, and indeed possesses many of the essential properties an element needs to provide a basis for life, in particular the ability to bond to itself and a variety of other elements. Silicon, for the most part, fulfils many of the basic requirements for the formation of life.
However, silicon is also vastly different to carbon in numerous aspects, and these differences drastically differentiate much of its chemistry. If it is to provide a basis for life, it faces many challenges that are difficult to overcome. Critically, the low strength of its bonds and vulnerability to oxygen means any compounds, much less biological structures, that are based on silicon would be very fragile. Unfortunately, we conclude the prospect of silicon-based life appears to be highly unlikely.
The research and analysis has shown that even the tiniest of differences such as an element’s electronegativity can have significant impacts on its chemistry. In light of this, the existence of life on Earth is nothing short of miraculous. While it is indeed disappointing that purely silicon-based life is unlikely, there are still potential applications for silicon to be incorporated more into carbon-based life. And of course, the possibility still remains that in conditions entirely different to those on Earth, if things go just right – silicon could spark the birth of life.
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Naadiya Mirza BIOLOGY
Naadiya Mirza chose the topic “Is bioelectricity the future for human limb regeneration?” for her ERP after a conversation with an amputee about the challenges they encounter. Driven by her deep interest in biology, her research focused on comparing regenerative processes in the natural world with human anatomy, exploring the potential for bioelectricity to enable limb regeneration while addressing the current limitations of this concept. Naadiya is currently studying Biology, Chemistry, Physics and Mathematics, and plans to pursue a degree in Medicine at university.
Topic Area – Is bioelectricity the future of human limb regeneration?
Unbeknown to many, limb loss is a very common occurrence with sta6s6cs from 2019 showing 552.45 million people (Yuan et al. 2023) globally suffered from at least one lost limb and this number is predicted to double by 2050. In addi6on, despite limb loss coming with many physical challenges the mental challenges are oHen overlooked with over 30% of those with lost limbs also suffering from anxiety and depression (Schrader, J. 2021) This demonstrates the severity of limb loss and represents the importance of finding a solu6on to increase comfort and support provided to amputees. In the 16th century a French surgeon called Ambroise Paré designed the first ever prosthe6c hand which he later called ‘Le Pe6t Lorrain’. This discovery led to the millions of modernday prosthe6c body parts which have helped worldwide approximately 20 million out of the 100 million (University of Southampton. 2019) who require prosthe6cs. The purpose of joint prosthe6cs is to help replicate the original limb func6on as much as possible and as a result this has had a significantly posi6ve impact on the lives of many amputees by allowing them to con6nue to complete basic everyday tasks subsequently increasing their quality of life. Prosthe6cs have developed immensely over6me from the original heavy wooden and metal prosthe6cs to the modern-day mind-controlled bionic limbs which work by receiving electrical signals from the user's brain and responding accordingly. However, prosthe6cs come with their own limita6ons as there is an increased risk of inflamma6on, bone fracture and even rejec6on. These side effects in addi6on to the high maintenance required to take care of a prosthe6c have discouraged many amputees from inves6ng in prosthe6cs, a Limbs 4 Life na6onal study of Australian hospitals discovered nearly 20% of amputees would not wear prosthe6cs due to these reasons (Anon. 2023). Addi6onally, prosthe6cs can be costly with, for example, a basic passive prosthe6c cos6ng around £4000 and a bionic hand ranging from £30,000 - £60,000 in the UK (Nesta 2024) excluding therapy costs, resul6ng in reduced access to and affordability for prosthe6cs from those from lower social backgrounds This research project was inspired by a care home resident who was both blind and had an amputated leg and spent most of her 6me as a wheelchair user. When ques6oned why she didn’t use a prosthe6c she spoke of how she was deterred partly due to the struggles of being blind but also due to the discomfort of the prosthe6c and the addi6onal management costs. Consequently, alterna6ve methods have been discussed to find a beber treatment for limb loss. Limb regeneration, in particular, stands as a fascinating frontier in the areas of biology and medical science, providing great promise for the future of human health. Limb regeneration stands as a tempting alternative to prosthetics due to its promising abilities of restoring complete function, its attractiveness over prosthetics and its absence of lifetime maintenance. Several studies have explored regenerative capabilities of various organisms and questioned the ability of human mechanics replicating limb regrowth. A variety of potential methods of human limb regeneration have been considered however the thought of using bioelectricity in regenera6on has gained significant abrac6on from scien6sts globally with PubMed Central describing regenera6ve medicine as being ‘one of the hobest topics’ for the past 30 years. This research project focuses mainly on the use of the bio electric method of limb regenera6on whilst also taking into account the disadvantages and limita6ons of this method
Bioelectricity was originally used in ancient Egypt for medicinal purposes with the use of electric eels, known then as ‘Nile cafish,’ to deliver shocks to ci6zens as a treatment for joint pain. Later in the 18th century an Italian physician named Luigi Galvani first recorded the electrical poten6als of living organisms whilst comple6ng a frog dissec6on. This electrical ac6on, later named galvanism,
was linked to muscle contrac6on by Galvani through his experiment of frog nerves when he used a cathode to trigger leg jerks from the frog This ini6al groundbreaking discovery led to further studies beginning with the founda6on knowledge of nerve cells to membrane poten6al and ul6mately the study of ion channels in cell membranes which sets the groundwork for the bio electrical process. Bioelectricity refers to the use of energy by living cells to create electrical currents usually as a result of the movement of ions, such as potassium and sodium ions, across channels in cell membranes. The ion channels help regulate the flow of ions to vary their concentra6ons on either side of a membrane. When there is a build up of ions on one side of a membrane a concentra6on of charge is formed which generates a membrane poten6al. These membrane poten6als help excitable cells func6on as well as contribute to electrical ac6vity such as the movement of nervous impulses and muscle contrac6on. Changes in membrane poten6al also generate bioelectric signals which can reprogram cells to divide and differen6ate into the specific cells required during regenera6on. These electrical currents are useful for many different biological processes with one major example of the natural use of bioelectricity in the human body being the transmission of informa6on through the nervous system. In this example, nerve impulses are first generated in the receptor cells found in a sensory organ once a s6mulus is detected. These electrical impulses are subsequently passed along to sensory, relay and later motor neurones and are eventually received by effector cells in muscles or glands which carry out responses to the s6muli.
Furthermore, bioelectricity is already playing a key role in medicine and neuroscience with the development of medical devices such as electrocardiograms which help track the electrical ac6vity of the heart and the use of electrical impulses to help treat a variety of brain disorders This, therefore, demonstrates how a deeper understanding in the use of bioelectricity can lead to further advances in other medical areas in par6cular regenera6ve medicine. This idea of using bioelectricity to aid limb regenera6on was developed as a result of the discovery of exis6ng species, such as flatworms and salamanders, using the same method of regenera6on. Michael Levin, a biologist at TuHs University in Medford, (Hutson, M. 2021) presented his research in the use of bioelectricity as a catalyst in limb regenera6on at the Neural Informa6on Processing Systems AI conference in 2018. Levin spoke of how his experiments, particularly with planarians, a type of flatworm, offer compelling evidence of the profound influence of bioelectric signals on the regeneration process showing the organism's ability to rebuild itself, even in the face of dramatic alterations. For instance, Levin show cased a two-headed planarian by cutting off the worm's tail and persuading it to grow a second head in its place, Levin demonstrated the extent to which bioelectric signals can influence the regrowth process. Notably, this achievement was accomplished without altering the planarian's genome, highlighting the potential for non-invasive interventions in the regenerative process. Stem cells in humans are described as undifferentiated cells which have the capability of differentiating into other types of cells. Planarians have their own stem cells known as neoblasts which quickly travel towards the site of a missing body part after an injury (Ge et al. 2022) Here the neoblasts differentiate into progenitor cells which clump together to form a tissue called a blastema. This blastema will contain position control genes (PCG’s) (Friar, G. 2022) which determine which cells go where as they follow a tissue pattern from memory to rebuild the lost limb. These genes were the reason as to why the planarian in Levin’s experiment was able to regrow a second head in the place of the original tail. PCG’s were discovered in the Riddien Laboratory which later recorded that the genes were also present in the muscle tissues of a common ancestor of both planarians and humans therefore providing promise of potential human regenerative capabilities. Notably, in organisms known to be able to regenerate their limbs, it has been discovered that complete function of their limb is also restored during the process. This concept is key in developing the bioelectric method towards human limb regeneration as complete restoration of limb
function is ideal and a better alternative to prosthetics. Similarly, to planarians, salamanders also present a remarkable ability to regenerate with their own mechanism of forming a blastema (Karolinska Institute 2019). In a salamander a combination of peripheral nerves, surface epidermis, immune cells and stump cells clump together to develop the blastema until it grows into the limb after an average of two months. In addition, the cells involved in the regenerative process contain a ‘positional memory’ which is key in determining where cells end up during regeneration. Michael Levin in his Big Brain Podcast in 2023 (news.uchicago.edu. 2023) men6ons the bioelectrical methods of regenera6on in these species and promoted the idea that the human body is a sophisticated computational system, which begins as a two-cell embryo multiplying through the process of electrical networks which contain the information for form and behaviour. Levin suggest s that the body's bioelectric signals serve as a form of "memory", which if decoded and manipulated can aid to achieve limb regeneration.
Limbs play a major role in our day to day lives in particular for aiding the completion of basic activities such as walking and writing. The Oxford dictionary describes the word ‘limb’ as ‘an arm or leg of a person or four-legged animal, or a bird’s wing.’ Despite a simple definition, in actual fact human limbs have a diverse and detailed anatomy with multiple layers of different tissues and membranes. In general, a limb consists of four layers: skin, fascia, muscles, and bones. Fasciae are deep within the skin and act as intermediates between structures. As the skin, fascia and muscles are all made of tissues which are collections of cells they can all regenerate through the same bioelectric process. This therefore means, in addition to tissue regeneration, to completely achieve limb regeneration, the bone lost during amputation or injury would have to be regenerated as well. Studies looking at deer blastema cells which divide and differentiate into bone and cartilage in antlers have led to beliefs of potential human bone regeneration. Deer antlers regrow annually as there is a store of surplus stem cells in the stumps of the antlers which change into ‘blastema progenitor cells’ when the antlers regrow. A Chinese study, conducted at the Northwestern Polytechnical University in Xi’an, witnessed a transplant of the antler blastema progenitor cells from a deer to mice which proved to be successful when stumps appeared on the foreheads of the mice after one and a half months. This achievement shows great promise towards potential deer to human cell transplants in the hope to achieve bone regeneration as a step further towards complete limb regeneration.
Moreover, Michael Levin, in his podcast, emphasises the human body’s existing ability to regenerate the liver and therefore presents regeneration as a possible phenomenon. The human liver is well known for its remarkable ability to regenerate itself in particular its ability to regenerate from just 10% to 100% in only a matter of weeks. A study, published in 2021 and led by Dr. Hao Zhu at the UT Southwestern Medical Centre, aimed to further investigate the function of liver cells and how they work together to achieve regeneration. The study explored how the human liver consists of a repeating pattern of small lobes each made up of three consecutive ‘zones’. The research team conducted their investigation on mice, using fluorescent trackers to follow the activity of their liver cells. They discovered hepatocytes from the intermediate zone of the mice’s liver lobes would divide and migrate to the outward zones to replace any damaged tissue. This was described as a plausible observation as hepatocytes in the intermediate zone would be sheltered from any toxins o r diseases and were therefore better suited to spread out than the hepatocytes in the outer lobes which were more exposed to toxins. Dr Zhu and his research team later discovered the specific cell-signalling pathway which triggered this mechanism of hepatocytes working to regenerate the liver. The overall mechanism involves a combination of cytokines and transcription factors which work together to activate liver regeneration. The initiation of the regeneration process is as a result of other liver cells, for example ‘biliary epithelial cells’ and ‘liver progenitor cells,’ differentiating into hepatocytes. Other liver cells also aid in activating hepatocytes to divide via paracrine signalling as well as releasing a variety of cytokines
and transcription factors such as interleukin-6, fibroblast growth factor and activator protein-1 through various signalling pathways. These ultimately trigger the differentiation of hepatocytes to regenerate liver tissue. Notably this mechanism doesn’t involve stem cells unlike the bio electric method of the salamander, however it still shows great promise to potential limb regeneration.
On the other hand, there are many limitations towards the use of bio electricity as a method of limb regeneration. To begin with, despite the human bodies unique ability to regenerate its liver this ability is specific to the liver as in other organs specialised cells, once differentiated, no longer possess the ability to divide and differentiate into other cells As a result, these organs cannot form blastemas to subsequently achieve regeneration Scar tissue is the predominant reason as to why humans are unable to regenerate. When a tissue is damaged, cells and collagen clump together to form a fibrous tissue which covers the damaged site, thus creating a scar Drugs can be administered to prevent scarring and allow for tissue regeneration however full regeneration of a limb is not possible using simply drugs. Moreover, the bioelectric mechanism of regeneration involves a blastema containing position control genes which relocate cells using ‘positional memory.’ As memory of an original tissue pattern is required this mechanism is limited to those patients who have originally had a limb and tragically lost it. The mechanism wouldn’t work on patients born without limbs as their PCG’s will not have a memory of a tissue pattern which never existed if the baby's limb never fully developed in the mother's womb. Consequently, PCG transplants or memory cell therapies would have to be researched and considered when using this mechanism on those patients born without limbs. Around one in 2000 babies are born missing a limb which leaves a huge demographic needing additional care for this mechanism to work. Burn survivors are another example of a group of amputees who would potentially require additional therapies as burn damage to tissues could compromise PCG’s and reduce their ability to relocate cells to rebuild tissues. The human immune response to burn injuries often involves necrosis. Necrosis is defined as ‘the death of body tissue’ (Edens (Hurst) Anna C. 2023) and is an irreversible process which suggests if the cells are killed in the local area of the injury, a blastema will be unable to form and the limb won’t regenerate. Furthermore, funding research for regenerative medicine can be very difficult as in order to achieve successful studies harmful experiments have to be carried out on animals, in particular deer, axolotls, and mice, which gives rise to ethical issues with these studies Other ethical and social issues include the risk of unevenly distributing beneficial treatments as when revolutionary therapies emerge there is a chance that only those with sufficient finances have accessibility to the treatments. There are also psychological impacts to take into consideration as after the regeneration occurs a patient may experience confusion as to what is and what is not their body. Rejection and sporadic growth of tumours are also possible consequences of regeneration and therefore scientists have to consider current social and ethical norms when preparing to continue with revolutionary research. Research into regenerative medicine is costly and therefore organisations have to consider whether to prioritise more pressing issues such as caring for the elderly and funding NHS medical staff over experimental programmes when deciding which research projects to fund. As limb regeneration is still considered a hypothetical occurrence, research in this area will not be considered a priority Organisations also typically take into account the longterm benefits as well as the overall number of units within a population who would gain from the outcome of the programme. Therefore, regardless of whether successful treatments for limb regrowth were to be established, they would still be very costly with only a small population being able to afford the treatment. As a result, this method would only be helping a small sum of amputees and would have to be considered worth while if any investments into regenerative medicine research would take place.
Bioelectricity ’s involvement in limb regeneration proves to be a promising concept with there already being evidence of its success and its potential to be relayed in humans. As a result of an increase in
global wars and battles the number of traumatic amputations is increasing drastically and in addition to this the number of UK amputations is increasing annually due to diabetes cases rising (Public Health England 2019) and therefore it has never been more imperative to find a solution to help the growing demographic of amputees or have a sustainable future. Limb regeneration in humans is a complex process involving the regrowth of multiple layers of bones, muscles and tissues. These layers however, have all been thought through by scientists with linkages to existing organisms which are able to perform regeneration. The bioelectric process has multiple benefits such as easing comfort for amputees and the more aesthetically appealing look in comparison to prosthetics as well as playing a significant role in the future of regenerative medicine. However, the method simultaneously has many limitations with the human’s natural formation of scar tissue as the current barrier to limb regeneration and the financial issues of funding research and clinical trials. Overall, this theoretical method has its pros and cons however, ultimately with the correct funding opportunity, a research project with a less invasive trial process could be the beginning of developing bioelectricity and its role in human limb regeneration.
References:
1) news.uchicago.edu. (2023). How bioelectricity could regrow limbs and organs: Big Brains podcast with Michael Levin | University of Chicago News. [online] Available at: https://news.uchicago.edu/how-bioelectricity-could-regrow-limbs-and-organs. [accessed 14 November 2023].
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13) Newcomb T. (2023). Humans Are One Crucial Step Closer to Regenera6ng Limbs. [online] Available at: hbps://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a43327609/couldhumans-ever-regenerate-limbs/ (Accessed 25th March 2024).
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Sanjhay Vijayakumar
COMPUTER SCIENCE
Sanjhay Vijayakumar chose ‘Neuromorphic Computing’ as his ERP focus because of his fascination in the efficiency of different types of computing systems and how investments in this sector can rapidly speed the process of AI development.
The project explored conventional approaches like Emulative and Simulative Strategies and how that can provide tangible advantages alongside the existence of a programming paradigm. Sanjhay is studying Computer Science, Mathematics, Further Mathematics and Physics and wants to pursue Computer Science and Maths/ Management at university.
Is the shift towards neuromorphic computing in AI development justified? Explain whether the programming paradigm for neuromorphic systems provide a tangible advantage over conventional approaches in terms of both efficiency and ease of implementation.
Sanjhay Vijayakumar
1. Introduction
Neuromorphic Computing is a method of computing with an aim to mimic the way the human brain works in terms of function, structure and efficiency. It was a concept coined in the late 1980s with research still being done today. This type of computing will make use of spiking neural networks which utilise of artificial neurons, henceforth exploring both the theoretical and hardware aspects in this field. This article aims to explore four vital sections, that of which consist of Hardware, Simulators, Algorithms and Techniques to then conclude whether research in this field is actually detrimental or the fact that we are able to take advantage of our programming proficiency to make greater progress than what we can imagine.
2. Hardware
2.1 Deployment Hardware
There are numerous deployment hardware that exist but in this article, we shall use a neurosynaptic tic chip called TrueNorth. It contains over 4096 cores with its transistor count being just over 5.4 billion (Esser, S.K, 2015). The main issue that rises in neuromorphic computing is back propagation. This is the process of which the weights of the neurons are adjusted to ensure for accurate results to be produced but this is unable to happen because this process uses synaptic weights and continuous-output neurons in a regular perceptron model (J.V, Modha, D.S, 2015) however neuromorphic computing makes use of spiking neurons and discrete synaptic weights instead. This does justify that neuromorphic computing will not be efficient as more research would be done however, when exploring deployment hardware, it does not seem so. What is important to explore is that TrueNorth uses digital circuitry rather than analogue circuits there is tendency for more noise and therefore more errors can be accumulated. It is imperative to note that this chip is abl e to make that noticeable shift in AI development.
2.2 Emulative and Simulative Strategies
A key thing to note is that there are numerous ways to allow for greater development of neuromorphic computing and some may be greater than others, namely emulative strategies. It has the ability to allow for stochasticity (Calimera, Macii, 2013), inherent scalability and lastly, eventdriven computation. This strategy is able to focus on physical perceptron models using” noisy” electronic components e.g. NPN transistor as small as the atomic scale. Why this is used is important to consider as in general, AI development has a positive correlation to a human in terms of how it functions i.e. its characteristics and demeanour but using this strategy allows to replicate the electrochemical functions of human neurons which are not necessarily discrete. Another strategy is called simulative and revolves
around the simulation of neural networks with three important types of hardware(E, Poncino, 2013), namely accelerator boards, programmable arrays and general purpose. Accelerator boards use digital signal processing to allow for a model to be simulated qui cker however an FPGA allow for real-time programming which in fact relates to the key question of how programming is able to provide a tangible advantage. Key concepts of the simulative strategy will be explored in greater depth until the section, titled Simulators.
2.3 ODIN (Online-learning digital spiking neuromorphic)
ODIN is a type of neuromorphic processor allowing for greater development in neuromorphic computing with the ability to develop chips with high complexity but would also allow for much better manipulation of hardware. There is a grand list that can be named but this does not matter; it is important to note that the chips are complementary metal oxide semiconductors which are silicon based. Now, a lot of potential is seen in this hardware in terms of ease of implementation but especially justifying that soon in the future, we should move away from Von Neumann Architecture and its bottlenecks. Properties that can be tinkered with consist of phase-change, topological insulators and even channel doped bio membranes. One important to concept to note in hardware is the existence of a memristor; it contains a resistor, capacitor and inductor but most importantly, it is able to store its resistance value, representing a given state, even if there is no power essentially making it an artificial synapse. Researching in this field is able to improve the memory efficiency of the chips as well as the energy consumption and simulation times.
2.4 Network Topology
This is defined as the topology structure of the network which can be defined physically or logically. Using the same True North architecture seen in Figure 1, it shall be a feedforward network in which this a three dimensional 64x64 core network where the first layer is rows x columns x array which is normally the start of a Convolutional Neural Network used in image analysis and the remaining parts consist of the cores (Appuswamy, Merola, P., 2015). A technique called sliding window, Figure 2, can be used to connect the layers and this works by randomly selecting a window size with it moving across at regular intervals until it detects the image. In this case, it would work at a point where the layers can be connected. Relevantly speaking, running a benchmark network we can measure bias, variance and energy consumption with this topology simulating how a CNN works.
Figure 1: TrueNorth Chip with 64x64 cores
2.5 Alterations in Chip Design
From what we have explored, we see a large amount of potential in neuromorphic computing with our current verdict being justified for its shift towards AI development but truly we have not explored the crucial importance of chip design as this unlocks the true potential of this computing with the need for great programming proficiency. There are two important things that are imperative to be mentioned; these are asynchronous address event representation (Roy, K., 2019). Asynchronous is defined as not dependent on an external clock and sends data intermittently with this differing from the conventional design of a chip seen today. The sparse nature of a Spiking Neural Network is seen as remarkably positive with this chip design and in fact drives forward the future of neuromorphic computing and therefore projects a voice in AI development.
2.6 Network-on-chip.
An NOC is a specialised chip that is able to receive data packs for DSP (Digital signal processing) in a full-duplex bus where transmission can occur both ways. Using NOCs have an advantage and that is a slightly closer step to creating a three-dimensional connectivity (A, Panda, P, 2019) that is found in the brain; perchance even changing the network topology could aid for this. But, we do know that if we were to put more research and time into this then we can allow for AI to be even more powerful than it is right now.
3 Simulators and Networks
Simulators are able to create spiking neural networks and simulate them in an environment where we can constantly inspect features like energy and memory, henceforth the existence of the programming paradigm even when there is a lack of neuromorphic hardware, is an advantage bu t also easy to implement due to the many examples that exist.
3.1 SuperNeuro
One simulator which seems to hit the bell for the programming paradigm in neuromorphic computing is SuperNeuro. This simulator has two modes, MAT and ABM mode. Now, we will highlight the differences between the two but mainly dive into the imperatives of t his simulator in
Figure 2: Sliding Window Technique
the forthcoming epoch of neuromorphic computing. Both these modes are crucial but MAT support homogeneous simulations which are when the bias, synapses of given weights and spiking neurons are of all the same dendronic type (Prassana, 2023). A type of spiking neuron model which is used is called Leaky integrate and has a threshold, reset, leak and refractory period which need to be altered with an offset value to allow for greater accuracy. ABM, also known as Agent -Based modelling is a simulation mode in SuperNeuro and works by treating each neuron as a separate” agent” (Prassana, 2023). Each” agent” contains a neuron and synapse step function with the ability to alter parameters like axonal delay, refractory periods and more alongside the use of GPU acceleration (Prassana, 2023). Using these modes, the best simulation can be produced allowing for more discoveries in the world of neuromorphic computing.
3.2 Deployment Networks
Networks are again crucial to explore in detail; there are many that exist but one that should be looked at is the feed-forward network where back propagation does not occur. Instead of the usual neurons that are analogous, we have binary spikes that can be held in only two states (P., Arthur, n.d.). Now, we must revert back to the question of whether this sort of system provides a tangible advantage as these networks are able to take advantage of backpropagation to train spiking neural networks by mapping them to neuromorphic hardware (Esser, S.K, 2015). This method is known as” constrain then train” in which the deployment network is trained but also allows for the network to be constrained and this allows for a decrease in training error and henceforth decrease in error in hardware. We must question why this is important and if technique s like this can help training in neuromorphic computing; it truly does improve the ease of implementing networks of high accuracy making training easy (J.V, Modha, 2015). This is exactly how high-precision sensory data is represented in the retina and helps to justify that there is a progressive shift in development making us realise that soon enough the day of AI is nigh through the help of these deploym ent and training networks. Moreover, the fact that we are able to alter the networks after it is trained offline and mapped to the deployment network is a deal to think about because we would need to train only once yet we are able to sample across the training network. The true nature of these two networks are splendid and show the efficiency that it possesses.
3.3 SNNs
There are two critical approaches which allow for the shift towards this type of computing to become justified. They are called Conversion-based and Spike-based approaches and are both techniques used for learning in SNNS. SNNS, otherwise known as Spiking Neural Networks allow for the increase in elasticity as well as sparticity of neurons alongside a great deal of research being put into Back propagation (Roy, K.,2019). This was a term that was discussed repeatedly before and the advantage of its exploration is that it could allow for multi -layer SNNs to be created of greater training times but this would also establish a programming paradigm that is open for exploration to all. At the moment, stochastic gradient descent is used for random neuron firing rather than precise one-to-one (Panda, P., 2019) and this area is still being looked at. We can also compare this approach to the conversion-based approach where weight scaling and methods of normalization are present which allows for increased latency, energy efficient attitude as well as a great increase in accuracy. We are able to alter membrane thresholds and leak time constants but with this brings problems like the softmax function (Jaiswal, 2019) allowing for negative values to be discarded which in turn affects performance. However, the two different approaches encourage more research and a creation of a programming paradigm that of which allows one to argue for which approach is of easier implementation and efficiency allowing for greater transition within the neuromorphic world truly.
3.4 Constraints within Networks
Problems shall always exist in neuromorphic computing and especially within the sub-topic of networks. This could pose a challenge to the shift in development into AI. We should understand that this is quite new and therefore an expectation that there is a scarcity of information which must be developed making it harder to fathom what network is the best mapped to which hardware therefore possess different system requirements (Schuman, C.D, Kulkarni, 2022). Figure 3 shows Imagenet which is a large visual database pertaining computer vision. Through this, specific” benchmarks” have been created for the specific purpose of optimizing models(J.P, Kay, 2022). These constraints will restrict
the true power of neuromorphic computing and could slow down research almost halting it allowing for us to argue whether it truly is worth putting a great deal of effort into but that is why this is much better than other types of computing due to the programming paradigm which we shall explore in detail later. Furthermore, there is a lack of programming features at the moment so we can argue for the fact that the shift to AI is too early. Many examples can include designing the different layers within the neural network, the threshold as well as the synaptic strength at a more intricate level each time a network must be created; this is much more work and can affect accuracy levels increasing chances of error. It has been mentioned that” Neural Engineering Framework” and” Dynamic Neural Fields” can allow for sub-networks to be defined (Parsa, M., Mitchell, 2022) performing particular tasks like binary operations, sequence and conditional statements substituting programming jargon.
3.5 Controllability and manipulation of conductance
Let us lay out two definitions namely, FPGA and ASIC. FPGA is a field programmable gate array which makes it reprogrammable and an ASIC is application specific integrated circuit (Panda, P, 2019). Both these types are subject to hardware manipulation with the ability to be easy to implement and mainly launch ourselves into the world of programming with this being unavailable with other possible hardware. We are able to fathom the great research done into continuous regulation of conductance as well as PCRAM. Synaptic depression can be used to control the area with connectivity being chosen from sparse to distributive and accurate networks (Roy, K, Jaiswal, 2019). It is quite the difficult task to accomplish through integrated circuits as the main target is implementing this into AI development and therefore must be miniature meaning that IC is the only
Figure 3: An example of a problem which caused heaps of development
path. There are a list of problems that must be noted that of which consist of sparse network concentration, core to core multicast, and variable synaptic formats (Roy, K, Jaiswal, 2019). Within this piece of writing, we will write some code using what we call a LIF mechanism.
We must understand that there are two implementations of the code as seen above. The first code contains libraries of the simulators and how they work but because of the complexity and experience that is required to use them; instead, I have decided to implement the Neuro and Brian2 myself by setting the processing times different for each. Now, when we plot this, we are able to notice these graphs. We can see that Figures 4 and 5 are plotted and that general trends are that when network size increases then the simulator time increases as more neurons need to be processed. However, as network size increases, scalability decreases i.e. the amount of storage left for processing is limited. It is imperative once more to ask the question if the programming paradigm did not exist then how would we be able to criticise oneself on a variety of simulators through plotting graphs and benchmarking systems. This approach of graphing through programming is essential to create efficient approaches to neuromorphic computing with the backbone being easy to implement. The fact that an aspect of programming can contribute so much to saying whether this computer simulator is better than another shows how much could occur in AI development.
4 The discussion of algorithms and their possible impacts
4.1 Hopfield Algorithm
Algorithms are in great abundance and shall be discussed in great depth within this section but what is imperative is that we ask how exactly or does it even contribute to the development in neuromorphic computing in terms of its ease of implementation as well as its ability to be explored much deeper through programming that of which is unable to occur for optical computing for example. We start with the Hopfield Algorithm, namely, which is a single-layer feedback neural network with ability to identify features even if contained within robust noise. Before we take a critical approach, lets lay out that there are two types - discrete and continuous. Discrete takes two inputs indicating whether a neuron is in activation or inhibition however continuous has a major
difference which is that the activation function could be a discrete step function or a sigmoid function. (Imran, MA, Abbasi, 2020). This algorithm is associative meaning that it is able to learn as well as remember which is quite similar to the” memristor” concept talked about earlier about even after power being switched off, it retains its data in the static sense. This algorithm can be related to the hardware deployment and network deployment as well as mapping as discussed earlier and the fact that it is able to cause network optimization is a great deal to prove how just one algorithm is able to cause an increase in progress within neuromorphic computing and therefore has the capability for causation to occur for AI and its development.
4.2 What can be done to improve the stages of creating the Hopfield Network?
We have four vitals stages from first selecting standard samples (1), designing the Hopfield Network (2), Training the Hopfield Network (3), using test data in the neural network(4) and then analysing results through a confusion matrix perchance(5). Now, neuromorphic computing is quite a new field invented around the 90s and if we want progression to occur and especially wanting to make use of a programming paradigm (Yu, Z, Abdulghini, 2023). For stage 1, we can explore with different sample sizes with the change in matrix sizes therefore and possibly a better way to process data rather than a binarization matrix. For stage 2, rather than taking into account the matrix size, we should take into account the number of neurons that the neural network will take which is the matrix size squared. Stage 3 is important to consider as it uses a” neurodynamic method” and this can be altered slightly as this uses recursions until a stable form is reached but the question arises of which there may be a better way to train the data in the Hopfield network. It does make use of associate memory with the concept of evolution being involved (AM, Zahid, A, Heidari, n.d.). Stage 5 is the most critical of all where we can use a confusion matrix instead to compare the trained object vector looking at bias, variance and F1 Score.
4.3 Neuromorphic Computing in AI Development
It is of great importance that we zoom into the question of whether neuromorphic computing in AI development is justified and that of course will be explored by taking a much more holistic approach. Many companies have used Neuromorphic computing in terms of its parallelism, low power consumption and event-driven structures (Patil et al., 2023). AI development, from what we know, is all around us and is crucial for aiding a human in terms of research and much more however we must ask is it worth it? A deal of detailed investigation of the optimization of a system should have undergone evaluating hardware and software components utilizing memory components in short-term (Patil et al., 2023). Moreover, analysing metrics like memory storage requirements as well as energy and power efficiency is required to ensure that the model developed also meets the ethical standards set by society (Patil et al., 2023). Because of AI development, neuromorphic computing cannot just be looked at from one angle as AI associates with mimicking human activities and therefore must think like a human and resonate with one. It introduces an entire subject of AI ethics which can be defined as a set of guidelines that should be followed to ensure that it has influence on decision-making. Hence, although neuromorphic computing can really drive AI development, it is not a black and white process but rather a critical process involving speciality with computers identifying weaknesses and performing benchmark tests to allow for it to be suitable.
4.4 Why Artificial Intelligence and something else?
This is a question that must be asked but can be answered eloquently. If we divert neuromorphic computing’s potential to AI then more doors open that of which consist of Transportation, Health Care, Education, Media, Customer Service (Vishwa et al., 2020) etc. Looking at intricate concepts in neuromorphic computing like an artificial synapse (Vishwa et al., 2020) is needed because we are to transfer, storage and process data all at once without the need of a dedicated storage space and
is remarkable because memory is quite a large problem. Knowing this potential, AI can be changed completely and is fantastic for neuromorphic computing to shift to development in the AI sector whilst the existence of a programming paradigm allows for different approaches to neuromorphic computing. Another concept that must be known to all is a memristor (Vishwa et al., 2020). This is a component that is non-volatile and is able to save its memory even when it loses power. It is formed as a matrix of switches and can retain data as when there is no voltage passing through the component then the remaining charge allows for the memristor to become what is known as a” memory component”. (Vishwa et al., 2020). These are ground-breaking discoveries that can change the direction that AI is heading in and would completely answer the question with sureness.
4.5
AI-Based Robotics
Let us discuss whether neuromorphic computing has its importance engraved in a different type of artificial intelligence, namely pertaining robotics. Spiking neural networks are seen as the trend in this type of robotics with Long Short-Term Neural Networks (arxiv.org, n.d.) being used with consideration of STDP (Spike Timing Dependent Plasticity). Perchance neuromorphic computing is not needed to drive development in this sector as quantum and optic computing can allow for intelligence, efficient parallel processing and have its reliability and integrity in place. In neuromorphic computing, there are limited supports like frames with strong structural integrity (arxiv.org, n.d.) which endangers the existence of this type of computing in this specific set of robotics as there is a reduction of deployment in neuromorphic systems. But, the main things to consider to help aid in the quest of arguing for why we need to drive ourselves towards AI development is that Hardware and Software layers that contrast one another can maximize its energy efficiency whilst there is a full pipeline of a robotic system (arxiv.org, n.d.) in place for a outlined framework of a robot.
4.6 SW Optimization
An approach called model compression can alter sparsity and the probability of the weights of neurons as well as biases. A technique known as weight pruning (arxiv.org, n.d.) can be performed which is when values of unneeded weights in the tensor are set t o zero. There is research that has been done to show how energy and power consumption decreases with maximum data efficiency (arxiv.org, n.d.) with less read/write to the neuromorphic chip being performed.
4.7 HW Optimization
Accelerators that are HW-Optimized are able to allow for efficient spike transmissions (arxiv.org, n.d.) within the Spiking Neural Network and therefore allow for faster memory access hence faster read/write speeds to the neuromorphic chip. This allows for more optimized memory as well as reduced risk of collisions or other types of errors. All of this is essential to be considered to ensure that the reader is able to be justified that the shift to AI development is needed whilst it being known that all of this is able to increase efficiency while being easy to implement by engineers with years of experience in the industry.
4.8 Conclusion
In conclusion, I would like to finalise that the shift towards neuromorphic computing in AI development is justified to an extent if the government or a privatised company is able to allocate a budget to more research in this field as from what we have explored above, there is pending potential that is to be unlocked and with the evidence of the programming par adigm from plotting graphs to the accessing of memristors internal structure using C and Assembly language really does allow for a tangible advantage over conventional approaches of using Emulative and Simulative Strategies. If programming was not so key, then the development of neuromorphic computing would take epochs and we must be grateful that it does exist truly.
4.9 Reference List
Dureja, H., Garg, Y., Chaujar, R. and Kumar, B. (n.d.). REVIEW RESEARCH PAPER NEURO MORPHIC COMPUTING AND APPLICATIONS. @International Research Journal of Modernization in Engineering, [online] Roy, K., Jaiswal, A. and Panda, P. (2019). Towards spike-based machine intelligence with neuro morphic computing. Nature, [online] 575(7784), pp.607–617. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586019- 1677-2.
Schuman, C.D., Kulkarni, S.R., Parsa, M., Mitchell, J.P., Date, P. and Kay, B. (2022). Opportuni ties for neuromorphic computing algorithms and applications. Nature Computational Science, [online] 2(1), pp.10–19. a doi:- (Schuman et al., 2022)
Prasanna (2023). SuperNeuro: A Fast and Scalable Simulator for Neuromorphic Computing. [online] Available at: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.02510v1.pdf [Accessed 11 Nov. 2023] Calimera, A., Macii, E. and Poncino, M. (n.d.). Available at: [Accessed 11 Nov. 2023] Yu, Z, Abdulghani, AM, Zahid, A, Heidari, H, Imran, MA Abbasi, QH 2020, ’An overview of neuromorphic computing for artificial intelligence enabled hardware-based Hopfield neural network’, IEEE Access, vol. 8, 9057570, pp. 67085-67099.
Esser, S.K., Appuswamy, R., Merolla, P., Arthur, J.V. and Modha, D.S. (2015). Backpropaga tion for Energy-Efficient Neuromorphic Computing. [online] Neural Information Processing Systems. [Accessed 11 Nov. 2023]
Calimera, A., Macii, E. and Poncino, M. (2013). The Human Brain Project and neuromorphic computing. Functional neurology, [online] 28(3), pp.191–6.
arxiv.org. (n.d.). Embodied Neuromorphic Artificial Intelligence for Robotics: Perspectives, Chal lenges, and Research Development Stack. [online]
Vishwa, R., Karthikeyan, R., Rohith, R. and Sabaresh, A. (2020). Current Research and Future Prospects of Neuromorphic Computing in Artificial Intelligence. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 912, p.062029
Patil, P., Shirashyad, P., Pandhare, P., Biradar, P., Entc and Cse (2023). RECENT TRENDS IN AI, NEUROMORPHIC COMPUTING ARCHITECTURES FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. In ternational Journal of Creative Research Thoughts (IJCRT) www.ijcrt.org f164, [online] 11, pp.2320–2882.
Thalia Al-Madfai BIOLOGY
Thalia Al-Madfai chose ‘How can AI enhance diagnoses and prognoses of cancers?’ as her ERP focus because of her interest in the field of AI and how biotechnology can influence medical outcomes. The project explored some current uses of AI in this field and detailed the potential for AI to revolutionise radiology. Thalia is studying Biology, Chemistry, Maths and Further Maths and hopes to study Medicine at university.
HOW
CAN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) ENHANCE DIAGNOSES AND PROGNOSES OF
CANCERS?
Cancer is a hypernym referring to a group of many diseases whereby abnormal cells divide uncontrollably to invade and destroy surrounding tissues (Oxford Reference , Oxford University Press, 2024). Globally, cancer is classified as one of the leading causes of premature death (Bray et al , 2021), with an estimation that 1 in 2 people will develop some form of cancer during their lifetime (NHS, 2022). As cancer is such a devastating disease, research for something of a ‘miracle cure’ has been widespread, largely to no avail due to the nature of the origins of the disease itself; it is not caused by a (more easily targetable) microbe but rather genetic mutation Therefore, it seems as though the best way to prevent death from cancer is to diagnose it as accurately, efficiently, and early as possible so as to be able to design and administer a treatment plan accordingly. A specific emphasis must be placed upon the ‘early’ aspect, due to the rapid nature by which cancer can spread in a body, so the earlier it is caught, the higher the chance of survival (Fitzgerald et al., 2022). In this work, I will outline some different AI technologies and explore some specific examples of how AI can be used to maximise diagnosis and prediction accuracy, particularly in breast cancers, skin cancers and lung cancers, whilst also assessing the benefits and drawbacks. It is important to note that the scope of AI in this field can extend to a very broad range of cancers, however I have chosen to focus on the aforementioned, as the three most commonly diagnosed cancers in the UK (Fig. 1).
The two predominant types of AI that encompass most common modern AI applications are Machine Learning (ML) and its derivative, Deep Learning (DL). ML technologies are algorithms that are programmed to sift through huge data sets they are fed. Doing this, they extract information, identify patterns in the data, develop understandings and conclusions based off these, and are ultimately able to simulate human intelligence by applying this ‘learned’ information to make predictions and draw conclusions from new data (Baker, Chan, Nichols, 2018). All of these AI technologies have ‘cumulative’ intelligence i.e. they improve with experience; the more data they analyse and assess, the more precise and accurate their predictions are likely to be. DL , as a branch of ML stemmed from the development of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (Sarker, 2021). These are ML models that are built to emulate the biological neural networks in human brains - they consist of an intricate architecture of interconnected neurones (Kothari, 2024) that don’t rely on predefined algorithms to procure data patterns, but rather are able recognise complex data patterns alone, using their interconnected layers, or neurones, to interpret patterns and features from an input. ANNs in DL do not require any human input as they are inherently self-correcting, whereas ML takes time, ‘experience’, and infrequent programmer input to learn to reach informed conclusions based on the data studied. A final AI technology I will be referring to are Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). The name denotes a tool that consists of many layers of ANNs that perform typical AI features to a more robust and higher standard. These include pattern recognition, image detection and object detection (Albawi et al, 2018).
The two predominant methods by which data is fed to the AI technologies are Batch Learning (BL) and Online Learning (OL), with most traditional ML technologies relying on BL (Bisong, 2019). BL is where the algorithms are trained on certain, predetermined sets of data, that have been broken down into smaller ‘batches’, such that the model can successively work on these (Bisong, 2019). OL is where the algorithms aren’t trained on fixed data sets, but rather are trained using the most recent data, once available. (Talentedge, 2021)
So, what is the significance of all of these technologies in regard to the medical field? Shi, Wang and Zhang (2023) define AI in healthcare to be the use of ‘machine-learning algorithms’ (amongst other
computer programmes) that attempt to replicate human ‘cognition’ to analyse and present large sets of health and medical data. Focusing specifically on its application to cancer detection and projections, AI technologies must: be inputted immense quantities of datasets with health information, medical backgrounds, and medical images (Shi, Wang and Zhang, 2023). These must all be with their respective outcomes, such that they operate with vast amounts of preliminary experience and without much human input, such that they are able to make accurate predictions from new data, based on the data studied (Shi, Wang and Zhang, 2023). The process of ‘training’ the AI and feeding it relevant data, followed by testing it so that it then can be trusted to operate without human interference is thus rather complex. Therefore, through examining some existing case studies and their outcomes, I shall be assessing whether the benefits of the integration of AI into these fields are worth the downfalls.
In 2017, Esteva et al. explored the potential for AI-driven diagnosis of skin cancer (SC) using a single CNN. SCs are amongst the most common of cancers globally, with approximately over 1.5 new cases diagnosed in 2022 alone (International Agency for Research on Cancer, no date). Currently, the preliminary assessment of SCs (the predominant three types being basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma and melanoma [Mayo Clinic, 2022]) tends to be carried out visually by a dermatologist, who uses their initial judgement to decide whether a lesion warrants investigation (Jones et al, 2020). They then proceed to screen the patient, which usually involves dermoscopic analysis, followed by a biopsy and finally a conclusive histopathological examination taking all factors investigated into account (Esteva et al, 2017). This tends to be a time-consuming and invasive (when considering the biopsies) process, with an element of unavoidable human subjectivity between dermatologists, based on factors such as location, experience, time-pressure and, most notably, personal opinion (Soglia et al, 2022). In the past, attempts using AI to improve these procedures have included deploying AI for the histopathological examination of dermoscopic images (Esteva et al, 2017). However, these did not succeed as most of the imaging techniques used (high-frequency ultrasound, MRI, confocal laser scanning microscopy etc.) produced images of a highly standardised format and therefore the algorithms dealt poorly with images containing irregularities, or that were taken via any other method (Esteva et al, 2017). These past attempts utilised the traditional BL to train their algorithms. This was flawed as they failed to feed the AI with sufficient volumes of initial data, resulting in increased erroneous conclusions when met with more obscure cases To improve this, Estava et al produced a CNN, which they trained by feeding it data sources solely comprised of pixel images with their according (dermatologist verified) disease classification. Their CNN was trained via BL using a vast dataset of 129,450 clinical images, comprised of over 2000 differing diseases. They found that their CNN achieved 72.1 ± 0.9% (mean ± s.d.) overall accuracy whereas two dermatologists attained 65.56% and 66.0% accuracy on the same set of images. These findings demonstrate the real potential for the use of AI in diagnosis of cancers, suggesting that AI can be just as effective, if not more so, than the current diagnostic route, and can be much more beneficial than was previously recognised when trained more rigorously and thoroughly. Based on these findings, Esteva et al. envision a revolutionised form of dermatological diagnosis- one in which CNNs are embedded into mobile phones, such that any patient anywhere with access to one can be able to photograph or upload an image of their lesion of concern, and obtain a rapid, highly accurate diagnosis. Reiterating the aforementioned statistics that elucidate the prevalence of skin cancers, this could be revolutionary in improving skin cancer prospects To improve this further, I propose that hybrid AI technologies combining both BL and OL could be deployed here Utilisation of these would maintain the same confidence in the algorithms from the outset (due to vast batches being used akin to in Esteva et al ’s study) but could also maintain confidence in the algorithms over time. Whilst the aforementioned AI has worked well thus far, cancers, as everything, are constantly evolving and adapting (Zhao et al , 2022) Considering these algorithms as a long-term measure, adding elements of OL into the training of the algorithms would allow the AI to adapt with the cancers over time, preserving the efficacy of these techniques in diagnoses. Moreover , these were
the outcomes of only one study carried out. Wider research would need to be undertaken before eventual widespread use of technology such as this, as well as including slightly more input from qualified dermatologists; AI can arguably never replace human nuance, hence why I believe the future of integrating AI into these fields should not be to replace human doctors, but rather to work together to elevate healthcare globally.
A 2023 study carried out by Ng et al. investigated the potential of the use of AI technologies to aid with the early detection of breast cancer (BC), through its implementation into BC screening programs. The purpose of screening programs is to look for cancer in as many people in the population as possible, with its greatest benefit being that it enables professionals to find early-stage cancer in asymptomatic individuals who might not have otherwise suspected having the disease (National Cancer Institute, 2023). This is so that the infected individual can be administered with much less aggressive treatment (to minimise the impact on healthy tissues) as quickly as possible, where its success rate and subsequent life expectancy is significantly higher compared to if it were found later, i.e. at least from once the patient has already presented with symptoms. Through the current screening methods, it is likely to find cancer later between rounds of screening (Houssami, Hunter, 2017) or even at a subsequent round of screening (Hovda et al, 2021), which arguably almost defeats the aforementioned purpose of screening ; to diagnose cancers as early as possible Therefore, many research experiments have attempted to find a solution for this; for example, in the past, Computer Aided Design (CAD) technologies appeared to be useful in reading images and therefore aiding the BC screening process (Lehman et al, 2015) However, once put into practice, the outcome was less successful; there was an increased frequency in patient recall to the initial assessment clinic, which led to more time taken up of, and more pressure exerted upon the healthcare workforce, and also led to the need for more biopsies taken, all of which were in vain as resulted in an insignificant increase in cancer detection (Ng et al, 2023). Consequently, Ng et al theorised that a commercially available collection of AI algorithms, known as ‘Mia’ could be deployed to improve BC screening. Mia stands for ‘mammography intelligent assessment’ and is an ML system developed by Kheiron Medical Technologies with the specific aim of aiding radiologists with interpreting medical images (Vargas-Palacios, Sharma, Sagoo, 2023).The use of AI for any medical purpose, and particularly in this field, must be executed with trepidation, hence Ng et al.’s decision to proceed using a ‘three phase… performance’ assessment. The typical double-reading workflow method of screening is as follows (Fig. 2). X-rays capture full-field mammography images. Two human radiologists review each case without any AI input. If they come to a mutual agreement in regard to whether the mammogram indicated the presence of tumoural tissue, the patient would be recalled to inform them of the findings and/or for further examination, whereas if they fail to come to a mutual agreement, an arbitrator is then enlisted to make this decision. Advantageously, when carried out aided by the AI-assisted additional reader flow, Mia would assess the mammogram cases and flag those that the human radiologists placed in the ‘no recall’ section in which they believe could contain tumoral tissue. These cases are then passed on to another human arbitrator who comes to a final decision on a case-by-case basis on whether to recall these patients, therefo re detecting more cancer at an early stage. As shown in Fig. 2, Phase 1 of the 3 phased approach was purely to be able to elucidate the ‘clinical benefit’ of the improved screening method employing Mia, in a smaller, initial rollout where only 1 radiologist took the role of the second arbitrator. The second phase saw a wider rollout of this method across 4 sites (still within the same BC screening institute in Hungary) and with three more qualified arbitrators. They also reviewed the cases from the first phase. The third phase saw the AI-assisted screening on a much wider scale- a ‘full live rollout’ with the AI as an ‘official addition’ across the 4 sites, where the 3 extra arbitrators independently assessed cases to decide whether or not to recall them. Th e results of this study were hugely promising: when contrasted with the traditional double reading method without AI assistance, the newer method saw that it could achieve 0.7-1.6 additional cancer detections per 1,000 cases. Whilst these figures do not necessarily seem ground-breaking, any increase in early detection of BC is
appreciable, given the aforementioned reasons, and that BC is the most common cancer worldwide and in the UK (Fig. 1), with it making up 11.7% of all cancers diagnosed in 2020 (Breast Cancer UK). Most importantly, this signifies the positive future prospects for AI in the field of BC screening, especially when assessing its benefit on a larger scale. In Ng et al.’s study, from the tumours that were cancerous and detected, 83.3% were invasive, and most significantly, had as little as 0-0.23% unnecessary recalls, expressing an extremely high level of accuracy. From these results, it is evident that AI can be remarkable. Whilst other failed attempts of enhancing BC screening such as CAD fell short, by increasing workload and wasting more resources with minimal impact, the AI-assisted additional reader flow method did the exact opposi te. Efficiency and accuracy are arguably the 2 of the most key features screening programs must have, and this study augmented that of BC in exactly these ways.
Another highly prevalent form of cancer that could benefit from the implementation of AI into its diagnosis is lung cancer (LC). In 2022, Pei et al. conducted a review to explore existing research that demonstrates the benefits of using AI to aid clinicians in diagnosing and treating LC, as well as determining its prognosis. In its early stages, LC can manifest as nodules that can make it difficult to identify, with the smallest of the nodules (present in the earlier stages of LC) posing the most challenges as they are easily missed and underestimated. (Rubin, 2015). CT images are typically taken of these and used but pose problems due to their complexity – they can be difficult to read, and the accuracy of their interpretations frequently displays a positive correlation with the experience of the radiologist, meaning quality of diagnosis can fluctuate rather drastically between professionals (Rubin, 2015). This makes it more difficult for diagnosis to occur early on, which in turn tends to negatively impact the subsequent disease prognosis. AI can be therefore employed to combat this issue. Recognition AI technology can be used to simplify the CT images (Pet et al., 2022), making it easier for clinicians to interpret and diagnose accordingly, decreasing the huge level of subjectivity between dermatologists that previously existed. However, with this comes issues surrounding accuracy, as AI can misdiagnose features of the lung as nodules, including blood vessels, bronchi, and lymph nodes, (Pei et al, 2022) resulting in overdiagnosis; an issue in itself due to the unnecessary pressure it can place upon both healthcare professionals and on resources. Wang, Dobbins III, Li (2012) worked to combat this using a precise lung segmentation technique which helped to differentiate between the various regions of the lungs, and the different lesions found in the image, and this has been shown to succeed in practice
AI can also be utilised in the staging of LC. The main current techniques used for early staging include PET or PET-CT and sometimes manual reading, which have both been shown to be liable to inaccuracy at times (Porta et al., 2018). AI was implemented to amend this in two ways – it has been used to read PET images, and also to reconstruct PET and CT imaging in order to predict where lesions may appear in the body and determine malignancy (Pei et al, 2022) It can, therefore, be used by clinicians to aid accuracy and speed, and thus overall efficiency. Tang, Liu, Sebe (2020) used BL to train their AI with a dataset of 2,480 images in total. They employed this classifier to assess PET scans. It successfully was able to determine where malignant tissue stopped and nearby healthy tissue began, and could categorize the tissues into lung adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma and healthy tissues It is evident again the impact AI is shown to have on both diagnosis and prognosis, enhancing efficiency and accuracy whilst simultaneously easing some of the immense pressure exerted on healthcare workers.
However, as with all new implementations in the medical field, there are drawbacks which must be assessed. The very foundations for the use of ML and DL technologies, and particularly within the field explored, are the aforementioned requirements of huge datasets of patient information. For the AI to operate at a level of accuracy significant enough to warrant its widespread use, healthcare data must be taken from an immense volume of patients to use BL to ‘train’ the algorithms. Each
and every patient risks their privacy being breached, with a chance their confidential medical history could fall victim to unauthorised access. Moreover, the very premise that AI could get ‘good enough’ and that it would keep improving from experience such that it could be used on a wide scale relies on the assumption that it is provided with a continuous stream of this data, via OL. The privacy issues mentioned, as well as the general fear of the population of AI, generally due to a lack of understanding (Carpio, 2023) mean that we could potentially see a plateau in the number/proportion of patients who actually consent to their data being stored and used by the AI, which limits its potential. Humans value trust (Carpio, 2023), and until it is felt by pati ents that they can trust AI with their diagnoses as well as their confidential medical information, a major hindrance is faced when considering upscaling the use of AI in diagnosis. A potential approach to overcome these drawbacks is reducing the spread of misinformation about AI whilst simultaneously increasing regular dissemination and education (e.g. via advertisements) to the public before they are patients about how exactly their data would be used and kept protected, in addition to emphasising that AI is used as a tool in diagnosis, to aid human doctors, as opposed to an entirely independent system. Another key issue is liability. In the UK, a medical malpractice or negligence claim can be made against a physician who a patient (or whoever is making the claim on their behalf) feels caused the patient harm. This could be by misdiagnosis, incomplete or inadequate treatment, exacerbation of an ailment, or a medical mistake, amongst much more (GMC 2024). Due to AI being a relatively contemporary development, and its use in medicine being even more so, current UK and GMC legislation is vague, and essentially fails to address this issue. A scenario follows: AI is used by a newly qualified, inexperienced radiologist to analyse a PET-CT scan, and fails to pick up on nodules resulting from lung cancer. These missed nodules are some of the most frequently missed in radiology, accounting for 43% of malpractice claims involving chest imaging in the US (Gefter, Post, Hatabu 2023), meaning the probability is high that an inexperienced physician would also have missed these. If the lack of identification of these were to lead to an exacerbation in an undiagnosed, untreated patient’s lung cancer, eventually resulting in death, (probable as lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide [WHO, 2023]) here lies the question of who is liable? Clear legislation must be thoughtfully developed and published, or else this jeopardises both the patients’ and the healthcare professionals’ justice, one of the pillars of medical ethics. It could also jeopardise the trust in the patient-doctor relationship that is paramount to effective medical care with the medical ethics pillar of beneficence of the patient at its forefront. Moreover, until this legislation is debated and published, physicians are likely to avoid using AI diagnosis (Price, Gerke, Cohen 2019) so as to avoid finding themselves burdened with medical negligence claims, which is arguably even a regression in cancer diagnosis as it means the huge benefits AI can offer are unfortunately missed
To conclude, it is clear that AI is a valuable tool that can be used to enhance the diagnoses and prognoses of cancers. With ML and DL technologies, AI’s replication of human intelligence can serve as a useful tool to supplement the flaws some of the current cancer diagnostic techniques have, including but most definitely not exhaustive to skin, breast, and lung cancer. Moving forward, it is imperative that funding and research into the uses of AI within this field are augmented, as the growth of depth of knowledge about AI and its abilities has been and will continue to be rapid; it is unknown what the future will hold for it. However, reiterating the potential drawbacks, more extensive studies will need to be carried out to ensure that the technologies implemented are safe, and whilst it is highly unlikely to ensure a 100% chance of safety, these risks and their probabilities need to be communicated clearly to all patients. Medical professionals and patients alike need to be able to trust in the technologies and the enhancements in diagnosis they give rise to, allowing for a revolutionised form of cancer diagnosis as we know it; the union of humans and machines to boost earlier, less subjective, more efficient, and more accurate diagnoses and prognoses. Thus, I conclude that AI will one day be an indispensable tool integrated into all methods of cancer diagnosis, however, this could not be until the next few decades, as more studies are carried out, public
opinion of AI shifts for the better and legislation is drawn up to deal with the current ambiguity. Despite the enhancements AI can provide, these developments will require time, and therefore cannot just instantly be employed in healthcare globally.
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Figure
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Alex Pylypenko
COMPUTER SCIENCE
Alex Pylypenko created the project “Jacobyte: a tale of computer vision, generative AI, Murphy’s Law, and (occasionally) Bridge-playing robots” because it fused a lot of his passions together - robotics, Bridge and painfully cringeworthy programmer humour. The project gave a fairly brief (albeit still 1200 words over the limit) introduction into the various technologies that went into the creation of this Bridge-playing robot and includes videos demonstrating the robot in action. Alex is studying Maths, Further Maths, Physics and Chemistry at school, and wants to pursue Computer Science at university.
Jacobyte: a tale of computer vision, generative AI, Murphy’s Law, and (occasionally) Bridge-playing robots.
Alex Pylypenko Haberdashers’ Boys’ School
0. Note:
This project would be incomplete without some videos of the robot in ac7on. These are available on YouTube here: h;ps://t.ly/YO5FD. They feature all the func7onality which is explained in detail throughout this paper (and as a bonus, some music I wrote many years ago for which I have finally found a use!)
1. Background:
Back in September 2023, when the cohort of impressionable Y12s at HABS heard about the task to write an extended research project, I was, like many, u;erly lost. I am a programmer at heart – my na7ve language, my lifeline, my modus operandi has become code, because there is absolutely nothing more therapeu7c than siTng down at a computer and spending three hours trying to find where that goddamn memory leak is located within that random 162-line chunk of C code, riddled with pointer arrays and dynamic memory alloca7on (if you want to read about this, please read on, if not, please read on anyway). However, the ques7on remained… what do I program? I’d created a bass-playing robot already, fusing my main passions - music and computer science. Then I remembered – I’d spent four years spending more 7me playing bridge than I’d like to admit. So… what if I constructed a robot that can play bridge? Thus, was born Jacobyte, named in honour of the legendary American bridge player and pioneer, Oswald Jacoby.
Bridge, more properly referred to as “contract bridge,” is described by Wikipedia as “a trick-taking card game using a standard 52card deck.”. It is a partnership game characterised by never-ending squabbles,
passive-aggressive jibes, and some7mes notso-subtly ques7oning whether Partner, in fact, has a func7oning brain. The auc7on, at the beginning of the game, exists so that a player can (mis)communicate their hand to their partner, suggest a trump suit, and whether to go to the bonus levels (termed “game”, “slam”, and “grand slam”). Aaer the auc7on, the declarer is determined, and they need to play their cards to win enough tricks to make their contract (or go as few tricks as possible under the target). The partner of the declarer is termed the “dummy ”, who places their cards face up on the table, and uncondi7onally follows the orders of the declarer. Some dummies follow the advice of my England U21 coach, Stephen Kennedy, in that it is best not to bother coun7ng cards or analysing partner’s play so as not to waste vital brainpower needed at another point in the game, however others take the opportunity to cri7que every single mistake Partner made during the hand. Well, that was before Jacobyte, who automa7cally cri7ques each of his partner's moves, providing instant feedback aaer the hand to op7mize their gameplay and avoid future mistakes.
Therefore, for a robot to be able to play Bridge, it must be capable of seeing which cards it holds in its hand, placing them on the table, seeing which cards others have played, and doing all this rela7vely fast to keep the human players’ a;en7on. Through my rather extensive robo7cs journey, I have realised that when most people approach something automated, the ini7al reac7on is one of intrigue and awe, but as soon as even the 7niest thing goes wrong, all interest is suddenly replaced with frustra7on and disappointment. Unfortunately, at the most unexpected
moments, in waltzes Murphy’s Law: “anything that can go wrong will go wrong.”
This, right here, is where my essay starts resembling a comedy of never-ending errors.
2. Project outline:
My aim was to create a robot that can act as a bridge player and/or tournament director (TD) at a physical table.
In “player” mode, the robot must have the capability to:
1. Detect and recognise which bids have been placed on the table and make sensible bids following a human-like bidding system.
2. Hold a set of 13 cards (hidden from the other players) and then play them ondemand. This was achieved using a Scrabble-inspired rack made of cardboard.
3. Accurately determine which cards other players have placed on the table, and which cards are in dummy.
In “tournament” mode, the robot needs to be able to:
1. Mechanically shuffle and deal hands, either random or predetermined, from a deck of 52 cards.
2. Take a pack of cards and identify any missing/duplicated cards. This is very useful in scenarios where multiple decks of cards are located nearby and, through carelessness, get mixed up.
3. Examine the play of a board, and record which plays happened when. In higher-level tournaments, where the play is broadcast in real time, this would replace the Vugraph operator, who, in real time, records every play made at the table so that people can watch the game on a site such as Bridge Base Online (BBO).
4. Immediately detect when an illegal play has been made. This includes, but is not limited to, a bid below the level of the previous bid, a play out of turn, or a card somehow appearing twice
(indicating that there were two of this card in the deck, rendering it invalid).
3. Vision algorithm selec=on:
The vision algorithm chosen had to follow a strict set of criteria so that it is suitable for the project:
1. It must be fast - ideally at least 10 FPS
2. It must be accurate. This does not entail a high “percentage” accuracy reported by the model training script, but rather, sufficient reliability when used in the real world. Many computer vision models are evaluated on datasets that closely resemble their training data, because typically, a large amount of homogeneous training data is shuffled and then par77oned, with 90% allocated for training and 10% for valida7on. Consequently, the model's performance is assessed based on its ability to detect objects within the valida7on set. This results in a situa7on where, while the model performs well on images similar to the training data, its performance in the real world is poor, because it is not adapted to different environments. The above phenomenon is referred to as overfiTng.
3. It must not be noisy. A false nega7ve (failing to detect a card on the table) is always preferable to a false posi7ve (detec7ng a card that is not there), because while false nega7ves can be easily corrected by adjus7ng the card's posi7on or the ligh7ng, a false posi7ve leads to the current play being incorrectly deemed invalid, preven7ng the robot from allowing play to proceed. Thus, a model with a reported 95% accuracy that produces no false posi7ves is far more suitable than one with 99% accuracy that occasionally "hallucinates" and detects non-existent cards.
And now, here comes our delighqul companion, Murphy's Law, crashing the party once again with its trademark flair for disappointment!
The final criterion I used to have, was that the algorithm was meant to be able to detect overlapping cards. This would have enabled the robot to be able to read the dummy cards in the usual way that they are placed on the table:
The dummy cards overlap to conserve table space. This presents great challenges for many computer vision algorithms because they need to be able to isolate the top lea corner of the card, and then detect it properly For this task, I have tried mul7ple algorithms, two of which I will discuss below
The algorithm described in “OpenCVPython Playing Card Detector” by Evan Juras (Juras, 2019) a;empts to solve this problem in the context of a Blackjack-playing robot. The problem was approached using transfer learning on a convolu6onal neural network (CNN), implemented using TensorFlow and Python, where the architecture of a complex and highly op7mised model for object detec7on is retrained on new data. This is done because developing a neural network for image recogni7on from scratch is very expensive in terms of compute power, 7me and money. Many image classifica7on problems are solved with transfer learning using models such as SSD_MobileNet This transfer-learning-based approach performs sa7sfactorily (albeit slowly) when there is a slight overlap between the cards, however it fails as soon as the overlap gets larger. While this may suffice for blackjack, in bridge, the overlap (as shown above) is
significantly larger, so this algorithm would fail in most cases
Another algorithm (geaxgx, 2019) (real name unknown) showed great promise. In it, the YOLOv8 (Joseph Redmon, 2018) detec7on algorithm was used as it detects cards quickly (around 8 FPS, no ma;er how many cards are present, which is an advantage of the YOLOv8 algorithm over classical CNNs) and accurately –only one misdetec7on in an 8-minute video, which was purely caused by a corner being obscured by another card. Redmon does not hesitate to give praise to his algorithm, simply sta7ng “It’s fast, it’s accurate”. Later in the video, a basic trick-taking game very similar to cardplay in Bridge (the stage of the game aaer bidding) is displayed. The algorithm was shown to work well in recognising not only which card was played, but also, through centroid tracking, which player played that card. Another advantage of this algorithm is that it uses image augmenta7on to ar7ficially generate training data, which is useful because it has the same effect as taking more training images, but it is much easier and more cost effec7ve to do. It works by crea7ng mul7ple copies of each training image and applying effects on each, such as changing brightness, rota7on, blur etc., so the robot is be;er prepared for detec7ng cards in unfamiliar seTngs.
Considering the reasons men7oned, the YOLOv8 algorithm was a strong contender for my project. However, a significant issue arose when I tested it with my own setup. Jacobyte uses a 4K camera with a wide field of view mounted above the table, so that it can detect cards on the en7re playing surface. This causes the cards to appear very small, and YOLOv8 is only designed to recognise larger objects. A solu7on to this problem, which I independently discovered (and implemented very hackily using lists of Python slice() objects), but later discovered had already been published under the abbrevia7on SAHI (F. C. Akyon, 2022), was to use a “sliding window” approach, where (in my case) 400x400 por7ons of the image are isolated, resized so
that the objects inside appear larger, and then run through the YOLOv8 algorithm. This ended up working extremely well in terms of accuracy, but all the detec7ons that needed to be run on one frame took far too long, and I was unable to achieve 1 FPS, let alone 10.
4. Vision algorithms used:
In the end, I decided to use the above YOLOv8 algorithm, but run a large amount of preprocessing, which would increase the speed greatly, back to a slightly more adequate 5-6 FPS, but would remove the ability to recognise cards that are overlapping. Although this was a large victory for Murphy’s Law, it did not set me back very much because I was already forced to use half-size playing cards due to the lack of space on the robot’s rack (Murphy moment… again). The advantage of using half-size cards is that with them, the dummy’s cards no longer need to overlap as there is enough space on the table for the full card to be visible. This constraint allows the robot to isolate and crop out each card individually from the image, and then run YOLOv8 specifically on the cards, rather than on the full image (which is full of noise). To crop individual cards out, I used the following algorithm:
1. A frame is grabbed from the camera.
2. The frame is converted to grayscale, and then a thresholding technique is applied A new blank image is created with the same size as the image from the camera, but each pixel is made black. Aaer
this, the median of all the pixel brightnesses (denoted m) on the grayscale image from the camera is calculated, and then for each pixel in the grayscale image, if this pixel is brighter than m+115, the corresponding pixel on the threshold image is made white. The resul7ng threshold image appears as below.
3. A bitwise-AND opera7on is
performed on the image with a mask. This mask is calculated at the beginning of the game in the exact same way as steps 1 and 2 This is designed so that objects that are on the table throughout the game, for example, the robot itself or the bidding boxes, are not detected as cards. I tried wri7ng an algorithm where this mask was recalculated again aaer the dummy cards would go down, so that the algorithm would know only to detect cards which have changed posi7on on the table, indica7ng that they have been played, because otherwise, I thought that the algorithm would have no easy way of detec7ng which card the dummy has played on the current trick, since all other unplayed dummy cards would also have been visible to the camera. However, I later solved this problem by storing the posi7ons of the dummy cards in an array and programma7cally ignoring them if they have not changed.
4. OpenCV’s contour detec7on algorithm is used to detect all contours, and then filter them out so that:
a. No two contours intersect. This was added because occasionally, one contour was detected as two separate ones that had paths very close to each other. The solu7on to this was to store the centroid of each contour, and then check that no two of them have an Eulerian distance of less than 30px, and if they do, the contour which encloses the smaller area is discarded.
b. No contour is smaller than 2000px2 in area. This is so that small specks of white (for example, white areas inside a card) which do not contain a full card, are not detected as cards.
5. Each card is cropped out of the image, rotated if necessary, and then a warp perspec6ve transform is used to isolate the card into a separate 200x300 image, so that detec7on can be run on it. (Very similar to the corresponding step described in “Playing Card Recogni7on Using Rota7onal Invariant Template Matching” (Chunhui Zheng, 2007))
6. A blank 1200x1200 image is created, and each of the 200x300 card regions is pasted onto it in a grid forma7on.
7. The YOLOv8 algorithm is run on this image. Each card has two corners (one on the top-lea and one on the bo;om-right), therefore if one of these corners is obscured, it is not an issue because
the other is s7ll detected and determined as part of the same card. These detec7ons are then mapped back onto the original image, concluding the above algorithm as all cards in the frame are detected
5. Playing card detec=on:
When a neural network is created, it must be trained. This process is analogous to teaching a child to dis7nguish colours – over 7me, the child is exposed to different objects and is told what colour everything is. From this, the child starts to no7ce pa;erns and common features due to which objects are referred to as having a specific colour. In the same way, a computer vision model is fed many labelled images containing instances of each class, and during training, it goes through these images and learns to isolate different features of each class so that when it is fed new images it has not seen before, it can a;empt to isolate the same features.
For the playing card detec7on model, I took individual videos of each of the 52 cards on my table, and then used a script to:
1. Extract each frame from the videos.
2. Use contour detec7on to isolate the card in each frame (much like Step 4 in the previous sec7on)
3. Isolate the top lea and bo;om right corners (this is done simply using the top-lea-most and bo;om-right-most 50x100 regions, which, due to the preprocessing in step 2, are guaranteed to contain the correct regions of each card)
4. Generate ar7ficial images using image augmenta7on. This involved picking a random background out of the Describable Textures Dataset (DTD) (Vedaldi, 2014) and superimposing either two or three cards onto this background, either with or without an overlap.
Image augmenta7on was required because my training data was rather limited in size, and it all had the same features as it was taken under the same condi7ons (ligh7ng, camera type, etc.). To counteract this, I used a Python package called imgaug (Jung, 2024) to apply random transforma7ons on the image that would give the model a greater amount of variety in data to prevent overfiTng. These transforma7ons included resizing the cards, rota7ng them and changing the brightness of each image, and resulted in images like below:
For the training step itself, I obtained publicly accessible weights (geaxgx, 2019), and then used transfer learning to train the model for 40 epochs on the scenes I created so that it would be more accustomed to detec7ng the cards I had bought The use of transfer learning allowed me to obtain much be;er results in a smaller number of epochs, because the amount of 7me needed for the model to adapt to a marginally different design of playing cards is much smaller than the amount of 7me needed for it to learn how to detect playing cards from scratch.
Below is the confusion matrix of the resul7ng model. This is a type of graph which shows how good a model is at detec7ng each class. Each square region (a, b) on it represents how oaen class a is present and detected as
class b. The dark diagonal line is desired, because that represents the case where a=b, meaning that a class is correctly detected as itself. The other faint squares represent misdetec7ons, but there are compara7vely very few of them, so this can be considered a successful model.
Surprisingly, increasing the number of training epochs did not lead to improved performance; in fact, it had the opposite effect. In tests, a model trained for 20 epochs over approximately 7 hours outperformed another that was trained for 70 epochs over roughly 25 hours. The decreased performance of the la;er model may be due to overfiTng, especially considering the rela7vely small size of the training dataset, which consists of about 2000 images, each containing 2 or 3 cards. The best model, however, was one trained for 40 epochs, specifically on training images containing very small cards, and this is what I ended up using in the final project.
6. Bidding box algorithm:
A very similar YOLOv8 algorithm was used to detect cards from the bidding box. However, instead of having to isolate the cards, I was able to use YOLOv8 directly on the images from the camera because the labels on the cards in a
bidding box are far larger than the corners of the playing cards. The result of this is below:
However, simply being able to detect
which bids are currently on the table is not enough. It is also necessary to be able to detect when exactly someone made a move, and to filter out any misdetec7ons. For example, since the rate of detec7ons is high, it is possible that a bid is detected while it is moving through the frame (being placed onto the table), which can result in a misdetec7on. It is also possible for an older bid to be par7ally overlapped by a newer bid (as all bids remain on the table throughout the auc7on), and this case needs to be handled as well.
The algorithm I developed for this works by only considering a card to be within the frame if it has been detected correctly in that loca7on for at least three frames. A card that is considered to be within the frame can only be removed from the frame if it has not been detected for three consecu7ve frames. This way, at each frame, the list of cards within the frame and the list of cards within the previous frame are stored, and these lists are then compared to determine which cards have been played within the 7me period of the previous frame. This is then handled accordingly – if the bid is valid and made by the right person, it is added to the auc7on, and otherwise, the robot displays an error and prohibits the game from con7nuing un7l it is fixed.
7. Detec=ng cards on the rack:
(This is demonstrated in a video) Another algorithm was employed to detect the posi7on of each card on the rack. In this instance, a rela7vely straighqorward method emerged as the most effec7ve. The process involves the stepper moving the plaqorm 5cm to the right, followed by the camera capturing five photographs and conduc7ng detec7ons on them. These detec7ons are then recorded in a hashmap that links each card name to a list of entries of the form [stepper posi7on, x coordinate in image]. Lists containing fewer than seven detec7ons are discarded, sugges7ng a misiden7fica7on of one card for another a rare but significant error.
Subsequently, for each card list, all possible pairs are examined, the ra7o of the difference in stepper posi7ons to the difference in image x coordinates is calculated, and this value is added to a list. The "robust mean" of this list is then computed to accurately determine the number of millimetres per pixel on the computer screen, where the “robust mean” is defined as the mean of all elements in the array that are no more than three median absolute differences from the mean. (The implementa7on of the “robust mean” was wri;en by Oliver West and used in a previous robo7cs project we collaborated on )
8. Inverse Kinema=cs:
The main part of the robot (the “player ”) consists of two parts – a rela7vely short-reach 4DOF robot arm mounted on a Cartesian axis (a gantry plate driving along an aluminium extrusion, controlled by a stepper motor and 7ming belt). On the end of the robot arm is a small suc7on cup connected to a motor, which is able to pick up and release a card. The maths behind the Cartesian axis is trivial, because the rela7onship between stepper posi7on and gantry posi7on on the axis is simply directly propor7onal. However, the workings of the arm are somewhat more complex.
Ini7ally, the task was, given (x, y, z), the target posi7on of the arm rela7ve to the posi7on of the base servo, to set the posi7ons of all four servos such that the endpoint would
be located at that posi7on. To do so, I simply ignored the fourth servo and always posi7oned it such that it would make the endpoint of the arm face downwards. The equa7ons are as follows:
( the C++ atan2 func7on, which considers the signs of the two parameters passed into it, and returns a value between 0 and 2π radians, however for the sake of simplicity, all angles in the above equa7ons are presented in degrees )
These equa7ons would have worked in theory, but as soon as I implemented them in code, Murphy’s law took control again During live tes7ng, it became apparent that assuming the suc7on cup always faces parallel to the ground results in subpar performance when a;emp7ng to pick up cards from the rack. This is because the suc7on cup is angled about 20 degrees upwards, making the suc7on insufficient. Therefore, an extra step was needed in the algorithm so that the robot could
approach any point (x, y, z) with any angle of eleva7on of the suc7on cup. The equa7ons for this are somewhat more complex:
This way, I was (at least, IK-wise) able to gloriously triumph over Murphy’s Law that is, if we ignore the fact that I had to abandon the idea of using full-size playing cards because using MG996R servos, the arm cannot be accurate enough to be able to pull out a card from behind mul7ple others, and there is simply not enough space on a bridge table to fit a long rack containing 13 full-size cards side by side!
9. Usage of Genera=ve AI
GitHub Copilot, a very recent genera7ve AI tool designed to assist soaware developers with menial tasks, proved to be an extremely useful tool to generate the implementa7on of this algorithm, because the code involves stringing together many built-in OpenCV and NumPy methods in unusual ways. Through this project, I have discovered that its biggest strength is knowing obscure methods buried deep within poorly documented packages, so for the purpose of tes7ng many different algorithms and finally picking one that worked, Copilot proved to be an indispensable tool.
However, Copilot’s great weakness is the inability to do any kind of problem solving. It synthesises responses based on code that was publicly available on the internet at the
8
7me of its training. This means that while it is remarkably strong at HTML and web development, which proved to be of great use in the crea7on of the frontend, its ability to handle complex mul7threaded logic within the backend, where many completely unrelated Python packages were used together in ways that Copilot has never seen before, is poor.
10. Other technologies used:
The game logic and computer vision are controlled by a PC running Python, u7lising numerous libraries such as Ultraly7cs (Ultraly7cs, 2024) (which provides a pre-built YOLOv8 wrapper) and OpenCV, for image processing. The motors and other moving parts of the robot are controlled by an Arduino Mega connected to a RAMPS 1.4 board (RepRap, 2024), which receives commands from the Python script via USB Serial The PC runs a Flask webserver to allow the user to control the opera7ons of the robot through a series of webpages, where the live camera feed and current game state are always displayed. The SocketIO library is used to stream the frames from the webcam to the frontend. The frontend is wri;en in mostly-AI-generated HTML, CSS and JS – it provides an unglamorous, yet func7onal UI built for ease of use of the players.
11. Anecdote:
Of course, as with any programming project, there is bound to be a plethora of bugs that pop up from 7me to 7me. However, for this sec7on, I have reserved what I think is probably the most annoying bug I have had to deal with.
One of the major challenges I faced was in implemen7ng full mul7processing logic for the Arduino, to allow it to smoothly move mul7ple motors from one posi7on to another while also performing other calcula7ons and communica7ng with the Python script on the computer To achieve this, I employed a C abstract base class on the Arduino, called BaseProcess, from which each type of process
inherits. This way, every process inherits the same structure – it has a constructor, the methods 7ck, done and complete (verb), and a destructor. This was all designed so that a class ProcessList could be created, to which one could add any kind of process at any 7me (if it inherits from BaseProcess), “7ck” all processes (so that they perform the next queued opera7on), and the class is designed to delete processes which have terminated. However, since C lacks garbage collec7on, memory management had to be done manually, which was non-trivial to say the least. Aaer I had found all the inevitable bugs caused by my terrible typing, I finally got the arm working… or so I thought. For tes7ng purposes, I had the idea to implement a bit of code which would move the arm in a square, repeatedly. I was not looking at the arm when I let it run, as it seemed to be making all the right motor sounds I was sa7sfied… un7l, at one moment, the servos simply jolted into an en7rely new posi7on. And then, it worked again. For 7.5 minutes. And then, the jolt. Murphy’s Law proven right. Again.
Aaer a lot of thinking, it became apparent that this jolt was caused by the steppers jumping into the ini7alisa7on posi7on, and the cause of this was that when a memory leak happens, the Arduino gradually loses memory and once it runs out, it restarts When Copilot helpfully suggested to use the MemoryFree Arduino package, I saw that on each itera7on of the arm moving, a small amount of memory was lost. Finally, aaer about three hours of debugging (which would have been so much longer without Copilot), I found the culprit line. Within the 7ck method of the ProcessList class, when a process was deemed “complete”, I set that posi7on in the process array to nullptr without freeing the memory associated with that process……
12. Conclusion:
It is moments like these which remind a computer scien7st why they love computer science so much. Or the opposite, and they end
up pursuing finance and earning more than an int32_t can store. (sorry to all the economists, I have nothing but utmost respect for you...)
Did Murphy’s Law prevail in the end? I don’t think so. The task I set myself was to create a robot that plays bridge, and… I did so. Sure, just about everything went wrong in the process, I had to abandon many design ideas on the way, and I wasted numerous hours trying to figure out why my motors weren’t turning, only to realise I was trying to divide two doubles and storing the result in an integer, where the result was always <1. But the robot plays a mean game of bridge now. I’d call that a win for robo7cists!
example, in a model for playing card detec7on, “5H” and “AD” are both classes.
Convolu7onal neural network (CNN): a type of feed-forward neural network which uses principles from linear algebra, par7cularly convolu7on opera7ons, to extract features and iden7fy pa;erns within images. (Craig, 2024)
DOF: degrees of freedom. In the case of a robo7c arm, it refers to the number of actuators (servos) in it.
Epoch: the term used to describe training a neural network using every piece of training data exactly once.
Eulerian distance: the length of a straight line between two points. More formally, given two points (x1, y1) and (x2, y2), the Eulerian distance is given as sqrt((x2- x1)2 + (y2- y1)2)
Warp perspec7ve transform: an algorithm that, given an image and the coordinates of four points on it, generates a new image such that these four points are the four corners of the output image, like below (Rosebrock, 2024)
Bibliography
Glossary:
Bitwise-AND: an opera7on that can be performed between two images of the same size. The second image must be a binary image,
Class (computer vision): one of the possible objects a model is trained to detect. For
Chunhui Zheng, D. R. (2007, 04 22). Playing Card Recogni6on Using Rota6onal Invariant Template Matching Retrieved from waikato.ac.nz: h;ps://digital.liby.waikato.ac.nz/confe rences/ivcnz07/papers/ivcnz07paper51.pdf
Craig, L. (2024, 05 28). Convolu6on Neural Network (CNN). Retrieved from techtarget.com: h;ps://www.techtarget.com/searche nterpriseai/defini7on/convolu7onalneural-network
F. C. Akyon, S. O. (2022). Slicing Aided Hyper Inference and Fine-Tuning for Small Object Detec6on.
geaxgx. (2019). Playing Card Detec6on Retrieved 11 19, 2023, from h;ps://github.com/geaxgx/playingcard-detec7on
Joseph Redmon, A. F. (2018). YOLOv3: An Incremental Improvement. Washington: University of Washington.
Jung, A. (2024). imgaug. Retrieved from github.com: h;ps://github.com/aleju/imgaug
Juras, E. (2019). OpenCV-Python Playing Card Detector. Retrieved 11 12, 2023, from h;ps://github.com/EdjeElectronics/Te nsorFlow-Object-Detec7on-APITutorial-Train-Mul7ple-ObjectsWindows-10
RepRap. (2024, 04 12). RAMPS 1.4. Retrieved from reprap.org: h;ps://reprap.org/wiki/RAMPS_1.4
Rosebrock, A. (2024, 06 10). PyImageSearch Retrieved from h;ps://pyimagesearch.com/: h;ps://pyimagesearch.com/
Vedaldi, M. C. (2014). Describing Textures in the Wild. Oxford: IEEE. Retrieved from www.robots.ox.ac.uk: h;ps://www.robots.ox.ac.uk/~vgg/da ta/dtd/
Caspar Gowar
PHYSICS
Caspar Gowar was inspired to investigate Terraforming and Space Habitats for his ERP, as he is fascinated by the future developmental potential of habitable environments. He combined physics with geological and mechanical engineering to discuss the most feasible method of extraterrestrial colonisation. In Research he took a particular interest in the production of artificial gravity systems. Caspar is studying Physics, Maths, Further Maths and Economics and he would like to read Engineering at university.
Terraforming or Space Habitats, Which Could be the Future for Human Civilisation?
The article "Inventory of CO₂ available for terraforming Mars" by Jakosky and Edwards (2018) provides a comprehensive examination of the possibility of terraforming Mars using the planet’s existing CO₂ stores. They aimed to produce an estimate of the quantity of CO₂ resources on Mars and if it could create a habitable atmosphere.
Jakosky and Edwards (2018) utilise data from Mars missions, for example, the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) to estimate available CO₂ from the polar ice caps, regolith and minerals. The data originates from remote sensing data and modelling techniques and is used to compare calculated estimates to the required atmospheric pressure to retain liquid water. The findings present that if all stored CO₂ were released it would only raise atmospheric pressure to 7% of Earth’s atmosphere, which is much less than the amount required for human life. Therefore, Martian CO₂ stores are insufficient for terraforming.
However, the authors rely solely on remote sensing data and model estimations which may bring about limitations. Moreover, there is great uncertainty due to the unequal distribution of CO₂. The findings may be even lower due to some of the CO₂ being potentially unable to be extracted or not retained in the atmosphere. It also lacks a broader context of alternative methods of increasing atmospheric pressure and the other gases required to create an atmosphere like Earth. In addition, the environmental impact of extreme CO₂ extraction and how it could affect Mars’ current ecosystem.
Jakosky and Edwards’ (2018) study provides an initial analysis of the CO₂ inventory on Mars. Although there is limited data now their estimations and modelling have made the most of the preliminary stages in data research and sampling of Martian terrain.
Terraforming Mars Quickly by Paul Birch (1992) explores methods to terraform Mars. At the time he proposed highly innovative methods and concepts designed to complete the task. His primary methods for swift terraforming include large orbital mirrors that encircle Mars and reflect sunlight onto the surface, raising ground temperatures. This releases gases and breaks down large rocks
sequentially to eventually become soil. Another method discussed was asteroid impacts through deliberately impacting Mars to release energy as heat and volatile gases trapped within the asteroids and regolith. Birch (1992) also presented the idea of introd ucing strong greenhouse gases, for example, perfluorocarbons to trap CO₂ at a faster rate.
Although the scientific plausibility of orbital mirrors is optimistic. The engineering behind such largescale objects would require significant infrastructure in place on Mars and its moons. The infrastructure itself poses a challenge as Mars would not be habitable so significant safety measures would have to be obeyed. The use of an asteroid to heat the planet would cause massive uncertainty and inconsistency. Capturing and redirecting asteroids would require more energy than what is supplied to Mars once it hits the planet. This would prove inefficient and there is no constant supply of asteroids. The delivery of PFCs would be the primary problem due to the volume of gas that would have to be transported. Its production on Earth could cause unwanted side effects that worsen the climate on Earth. We do not know the impact of these potentially harmful gases on Mars and if they would produce a habitable environment. Warming through nuclear activity was lightly touched upon and would be least likely due to the high potential for substantial amounts of radioactive contamination, making the environment hostile and therefore ineffective at achieving the objective of terraforming Mars.
Birch (1992) raises important environmental and ethical questions about the ecological impact on Mars and the external consequences that may come with some methods of terraforming. He touches upon the ethical implications that come with permanently altering another planet’s environment that may support microbial life. Birch (1992) discusses not only the technological requirements and considerations but the ethical, environmental and legal as well.
Gerard O’Neill’s article on space habitats published in Physics Today (1974) presents a rotating cylindrical structure where a self-sustaining environment allows for extended human stay. The key features of the design include rotational gravity by ‘centrifugal force’, which would replicate gravity on Earth. This in theory solves the issues of how microgravity affects the body and how people cannot live for prolonged periods in microgravity. The cylinder is proposed to be several kilometres long and a few kilometres in diameter. This would be able to house millions. The idea of a selfsustaining, closed-loop ecosystem would mean there would have to be an agricultural system,
recreational areas, and residential zones. The entire system would be powered by solar energy through photovoltaic capture for use in energy and for photosynthesis of plant life.
The organisation of constructing such a habitat would require massive infrastructure in space and on the moon. The moon is desirable due to Earth's comparatively strong gravitational field strength which makes the transport of materials to and fro from space much more physically demanding. On the other hand, financial investment must be justified. The initial capital required presents a starting imbalance in a cost-benefit analysis. In addition, labour, equipment and replacement investment in the construction phase would skyrocket costs. We are also uncertain how much potential the market that comes with a habitat will function and there is uncertainty as to whether it can grow effectively and has the potential for such an upfront investment.
To conclude, O’Neill’s (1974) cylinder has massive potential to open a space market and would start the improvement of outer space infrastructure, but logistical issues in the construction of the system could cause catastrophic issues and potential failure
Extended Research Project
The thought of interplanetary exploration has always been a wonder for humanity. Our lack of knowledge sparks the curiosity within us. This curiosity, tied with our creativity through imagination allows us to theorise what it could be like to be in that re ality where these large extraterrestrial structures exist, but where does this curiosity come from? Humans have always strived to improve and explore our environment. Through this process, we acquire knowledge and material for technological advancement, helping the human species by enhancing the quality of life and utility. Extraterrestrial bodies intrigue humans so greatly due to their sheer difference between the environment and that of Earth. We know such a minute fraction of the knowledge out there, which is the primary driving factor for why we feel inclined to explore the sky above us.
At the moment permanent interplanetary travel remains out of grasp for current human development, however, we are making progress in the discovery of planets and human travel to Mars has been in discussion for the past few decades. Since 1960 we have launched 50 spacecraft missions with 40 being successful or still in operation. Of those successful missions, we sent six
rovers with tasks of collecting information from the surface. Perseverance, the rover from NASA’s Mars 2020 mission is “investigating an Astro biologically relevant ancient environment on Mars for its surface geological processes and history, and assessing its past habitability, the possibility of past life on Mars, and the potential for preservation of biosignatures within accessible geological materials”. It will also cache samples as the rover stays on Mars to be collected by the Mars samplereturn mission. This is a future mission to return 43 Martian rock and soil samples by around 2033.
Two primary theories as of today are either the utilisation of other neighbouring planets to terraform and inhabit or the use of entirely manufactured habitats floating in space. Both have attractive benefits; however, both have major drawbacks which we wi ll have to overcome at the proper time. The timescale for such structures is that of lifetimes, like the time taken to build large cathedrals centuries ago.
Terraforming
Our primary focus is Mars when interplanetary colonisation is in question due to its convenience compared to other planets. To fully utilise Mars as a resource we would have to terraform it. Terraforming is the manipulation of a planet’s environment and atmosphere to replicate those of Earth, allowing it to be habitable by humans without artificial environment chambers. It is a theoretical method of interplanetary expansion to accommodate the ever-expanding population of humans. Shawn Moss (2006) defines what terraforming truly entails as; “the primary mineral constituents of a world must remain as they are, along with its size, mass, orbital characteristics, and level of gravity. Terraforming therefore generally refers to engineering those characteristics of a planet which can be changed, such as atmospheric gas constituents, temperature, the size of the hydrosphere, and the addition or expansion of a planet-wide biosphere. Some planets are therefore more terraformable than others.” Thus, the primary goal of terraforming is usually taken to be the creation of a planetary environment that supports the survival of humans, as well as other organisms of Earth origin, across a significant fraction of the planet’s surface without requiring substantial use of technology. The two primary planets that are usually theorised concerning terraforming are Mars and Venus. This is due to their distance from the sun, resulting in properties that are similar to Earth’s.
First, how similar is the Martian environment to Earth? According to NASA Science, Mars has a radius of 3389.5 km, however, this value is not unanimously agreed upon as sources such as the ESA (2019) (European Space Agency) state the radius as 3397 km on “Facts about Mars”. This deviation in radius
is due to Mars not being a perfect sphere, like all planets Mars has an equatorial bulge of around 0.6% of the radial distance, which is due to the speed of rotation of the planet. As its rotational speed increases, the more the planet is ‘flattened,’ resulting in a more disproportionate equatorial bulge.
Mars’ surface area is approximately 145 million km2, which is remarkably close to Earth’s land mass with an area of 148 million km2 (29.2% of Earth’s surface area). Of course, this land mass will be reduced if artificial seas are implemented, but it would still be habitable for several billions of humans.
In the Journal of The British Interplanetary Society by Paul Birch (1992), Birch explains that Mars has an atmosphere with atmospheric volume of 1/100 of Earth’s, resulting in a gravitational force strength of 3.71ms-2, which is around 38% of the Earth’s gravitational pull. At the moment we are not sure how this would affect the human body, but it is logically predicted that bone density would decrease and induce muscle atrophy due to the lower gravity requiring less mu scle activations resulting in muscle disuse. This would mean that people born on Mars would have to receive steroid medication if travelling back to Earth as substantial muscle hypertrophy and an increase in bone density must occur to make them strong enough to withstand Earth’s environment. In the “Review of space habitat designs for long-term space explorations”, Chen et al (2021) describe the issue of a lack of gravity: “Until now, most of mankind’s explorations in space were with zero-g or microgravity. It is clear that zero-g or micro-gravity is unhealthy both physically and physiologically even for the highly trained astronauts, reported by [5, 74, 147, 184]. Many researchers have also pointed out an extensive list of health hazards for living in the zero-g or microgravity environment, such as space motion sickness [76], imprecise hand performance [157], high stress and weak immune responses [197], bone density loss [17], and muscle atrophy [58].” The previous and current habitats operating in space are limited to the survival of highly trained astronauts and have already left them with a lot of harmful side effects.
Birch (1992) also states that “its mean temperature is about 220K (≈ -55 degrees Celsius) compared to 290K (≈17 degrees Celsius) on Earth; this is partly because of the absence of a warming blanket of air and water vapour as water cannot stay as a liquid for extended pe riods in the Martian climate. Second, Mars has a very thin atmosphere, composed of carbon dioxide; the pressure at the surface is about 7 millibars. There is almost no free oxygen and no liquid water.” Even though The Martian atmosphere is composed of 96% CO2, the pressure is much lower than that of the Earth (0.636 kPa).
Therefore, the CO2 is not sufficient to trigger a considerable greenhouse effect. The atmosphere on Mars is volatile and has a considerably lower pressure than that of the Earth. Paul Birch (1992) analyses and succinctly illustrates the basic climate of Ma rs which highlights to fellow scientists what must be changed to replicate the conditions on Earth.
The two primary factors that must be changed in the Martian atmosphere to replicate that of Earth are the temperature and atmosphere density. This is where the majority of the issues that arise, prevent human settlement on the planet. For example, water c annot remain in a liquid state for long on the surface of Mars. This, of course, is a huge issue for humans as we comprise primarily of water and therefore require it regularly throughout the day. In “ Technological requirements for terraforming Mars” Zubrin and McCay (1993) depict the essence of the situation as “While Mars' CO₂ atmosphere has only about 1% the pressure of the Earth's at sea level, it is believed that there are reserves of CO₂ frozen in the south polar cap and adsorbed within the soil can sufficiently to thicken the atmosphere to the point where its pressure would be about 30% that of Earth. The way to get this gas to emerge is to heat the planet.” Bruce Jakosky and Christopher Edwards (2018) together go deeper into the analysis of CO₂ stores within the regolith of Mars and the capacity that can be released into the atmosphere in their paper called, "Inventory of CO₂ available for terraforming Mars". Their conclusion follows: “There is not enough CO₂ left on Mars in any known, readily accessible reservoir, if mobilized and emplaced into the atmosphere, to produce any significant increase in temperature or pressure. Even if enough CO₂ were to be available, it would not be feasible to mobilize it; doing so would require processing a major fraction of the surface (analogous to regional or planet-scale strip mining) to release it into the atmosphere, which is beyond presentday technology. Terraforming Mars is therefore not possible in the foreseeable future by utilizing CO₂ resources available on the planet.” This would mean that gases would have to be artificially imported to Mars. This hypothesis will be updated by the data being collected at the moment by the European Space Agency Trace Gas Orbiter and the NASA Mars rover.
Paul Birch (1992) discusses the design behind how a Soletta* can be constructed to raise the mean temperature of Mars. He suggested the shape of the structure and how a second lens can be incorporated to further focus photon energy to melt the regolith, releasing gases in the process. He states: “The soletta (Fig. 1) can be placed 108 m from Mars between the planet and the Sun and held in position by light reflected from the annular support mirror. Constructed of solar sail material, reflective on both sides, the soletta comprises an inner core of complementary half mirror, and a series of 400-500 annular slats tilted. The exact number of slats is not critical.”
Illustration by Birch (1992) of the Soletta structure and how light interacts with the shape to produce a focussing effect.
However, Zubrin and McCay (1993) argue that the warming of Mars will only require a base increase of 4K before the greenhouse effect kicks in and produces a snowballing effect of positive feedback, vastly decreasing the total time for the process and the resources required. Zubrin and McCay’s (1993) proposal is due to reduce the engineering strain on the project to 1/200 of what it would be by manually increasing the temperature as the volume of greenhouse gas required to heat a planet is proportional to the square of the temperature change required. To provide enough thermal energy to heat the entire planet by the previously calculated 4K, a vast array of truly massive mirrors would have to be created. To start, those in the future may choose to focus on a smaller section of the planet rather than completely warm the whole planet. This would vastly reduce the time for construction and deployment of the structures involved and as technological advancements occur, other more effective methods can be constructed whilst the original mirror is working on heating
the designated area. A four-degree kelvin increase in the Martian polar ice cap is predicted to kickstart the evaporation of the CO2 reservoir. “Based upon the total amount of solar energy required to raise the black-body temperature in each area a certain number of degrees above the polar value of 150 K, we find that a space-based mirror with a radius of 125 km could reflect enough sunlight to raise the entire area south of 70 degrees south latitude by 5 K. If made of solar sail type aluminized mylar material with a density of 4 tonnes/km2, such a sail would have a mass of 200,000 tonnes.” This scale of production is technically possible as according to the International Aluminium Institute, each year more than 30 million tonnes of aluminium scrap is recycled globally. So, 200,000 is only a fraction of the amount of aluminium recycled, let alone the total mass of aluminium used per year including the 24% of aluminium that is not recycled yearly. This is too large to consider launching from Earth, however space-based manufacturing techniques are available and its construction in space out of asteroidal or Martian moon material is a serious option. The total amount of energy required to process the materials for such a reflector would be about 120 MWeyears, (2.4x 10^15 Joules) The annual global energy consumption is estimated to be 580 million terajoules. (580x 10^15 Joules), although it is only 0.4% of the yearly usage by humans, it is still a substantial amount and illustrates the scale of the project.
This graph is a result of a set of equations by Zubrin and McCay (1993), mapping the mirror radius and mass required to cause a set increase in temperature.
Despite the many potential benefits of terraforming, many drawbacks must be considered. For example, it would require sustained investment over centuries if not millennia due to the sheer time scale geoengineering takes to alter a planet’s environment. This is all also without any guarantee that it would be successful once completed. The advancements in the knowledge we would have to gain in various fields such as atmospheric science, geology, and material science. As many substances would have to be imported on top of the base terraforming of the Martian atmosphere, the coordination of transporting massive volumes of materials across millions of kilometres presents a further challenge. Moreover, the scale of operations would require astronomical amounts of energy, which would have to be somehow captured and stored.
Introducing Earth-like conditions to another planet may create unforeseen ecological impacts. As we have not done anything remotely similar there is no way of predicting or controlling these changes. This could cause the reverse effect of creating a more hazardous environment and less hospitable than it is currently. The impact on Earth’s environment could be detrimental as the emissions from rocket launches and the depletion of resources could amplify existing environmental issues. Rockets emit primarily nitrogen oxides, alumina particles, soot, chlorine, water vapour, and hydrochloric acid, all of which are harmful either directly or contribute to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
The economic and social considerations are great as research, development and transportation would require massive investment where funding may be better allocated in areas such as healthcare and climate change mitigation which directly benefit the human population. The return on investment for such a large-scale project is uncertain so investment may be low. Existing inequality may also be exacerbated due to wealthier nations being able to allocate more funding to resource allocation and may possess more power in masses of land on Mars. There is a risk that the project may be monopolised by those who are powerful at the top rather than being shared with all humanity.
A project like this would need sustained support over centuries, so would require consistent political and social will. Governments and societies would have to commit to the long-term outcome which would outlive political cycles and economic fluctuations and once it is completed there is a considerable risk of geopolitical tension as nations and private entities will act in their interests. To
prevent this effective regulation must be present, however, at such a scale it would be extraordinarily complex and require international cooperation. As described, cooperation can become an issue at multiple stages and may inhibit progress. Sustained comm itment may become increasingly difficult if priorities shift to potential crises on Earth. Finally, a focus on terraforming may lead to neglect of the environmental and social issues of Earth.
Space Habitats
Space habitats are the primary alternative option to terraforming. The upfront capital required is much lower and in theory, these habitats can be sectioned into modules which can be built upon and added to, meaning they can allow for scalable growth and adaptivity. This compares to terraforming where a great deal of preparation through geoengineering is required before population is even considered. Development can be incremental, starting with small stations and building upon them. Moreover, we have previous experience in building space habitats like the ISS. This of course is not habitable for the average human however we at least have experience building such stations, unlike terraforming which is entirely theoretical.
Firstly, space habitats are entirely synthetic, which allows the design to entirely cater to human needs and self-sufficiency. They can generate ideal living conditions for our biological needs. When terraforming Mars massive improvements in geoengineering would have to take place before the place is habitable for modular living chambers to be installed let alone the planet itself being comfortable. It is also more adaptable to changes in the environment as they are free -floating modules so can be moved to favourable orbits if circumstances change.
Space habitats would be much simpler to develop from a raw material and pure construction standpoint as they can use materials from Earth and build them in the Low Earth Orbit. Having these ‘floating cities’ at distances less than 2000 km from the Earth’s surface would make transportation and communication much more straightforward as we are now proficient at going to and fro from these distances. Moreover, it can help mitigate the effects of radiation through atmosphere protection. It may not be fully sufficient so other measures may have to be employed to allow for safety. Chen et al (2021) further go on to explain the other most important required aspect of habitat designing - efficient radiation protection. “The magnetic field and atmosphere of the Earth protects us from excessive galactic cosmic rays. Biological studies report that the harmful effects of deep space radiation [21] are especially dangerous to animal chromosomes [40, 64, 65, 144, 202].
The strength of these radiations can be detected in near-Earth orbits. Moreover, it has been studied that even pilots get affected by the radiation in the upper atmosphere [205]. Some research has already been conducted on a space habitat. For example, Dac hev et al. overviewed the ISS radiation environment during 2014-2016 missions, and the study showed that for a short time period of 30 days and one year, the average equivalent dosage is below the recommended skin and eye dosage given by the National Council on Radiation Protection. This research also provided radiation protection guidance for Low Earth Orbit [45]. Uncertain solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for example, the June 2015 event, are dangerous threats to cosmonauts/astronauts inside the ISS [46]. Thus, more research on solar activities and shielding requirements for the long-term sustainability of humans in outer space is still needed.” As discussed earlier the LEO (low Earth orbit) would be a convenient place to keep a habitat, however, considering Chen’s research, some radiation-resistant methods may have to be employed to protect residents as they will be staying there for prolonged amounts of time. These radiation protection methods would be much easier to implement than thickening the atmosphere of Mars.
Asteroid belts can consistently supply us and facilitate mining raw materials that are abundant in space. In his article, “Asteroid Mining: Key to the Space Economy”, Mark Sonter (2006) states that “about 10% of Near-Earth Asteroids are energetically more accessible than the Moon (i.e. under 6 km/s from LEO)”. He also says, “Spectroscopic studies suggest, and 'ground-truth' chemical assays of meteorites confirm, that a wide range of resources are present in asteroids and comets, including nickel-iron metal, silicate minerals, semiconductor and platinum group metals, water, bituminous hydrocarbons, and trapped or frozen gases including carbon dioxide and ammonia.” Many of these materials are particularly useful for the construction of habitats, especially when there are not any celestial bodies nearby.
At the time one of the most detailed designs of a space settlement was the O’Neill cylinder. The design features artificial gravity through rotation causing ‘centrifugal force’. In his article in Physics Today, O’Neill (1974) proposed that habitats rotate twenty-eight times per hour which would simulate gravity on Earth. Research by B.D Newsom (1971) in “Habitability factors in a rotating space station” concluded that the rotational speeds experienced in the cylinder would cause few people to feel motion sickness. NASA (1973) stated in the “Fifth Symposium on the Role of the Vestibular Organs in Space Exploration” that falling masses would experience slight deflection when falling. We would also experience anti-spin ward and spin ward directions when turning our heads due to the ear detecting ‘Coriolis forces’. This method of gravity generation woul d accurately
replicate Earth’s gravity as the closer one gets to the centre, the ‘centrifugal force’ reduces so at higher altitudes gravity would reduce, like Earth.
The cylinder is designed to have an air pressure half of Earth’s atmospheric pressure. It is intended to save gas usage and reduce the stress on the walls, so less material is required to withstand the high pressure. Oxygen will contribute approximately 40% of gas replicating ~20% on Earth and Nitrogen will add the remaining 60% of pressure. At the scale of O’Neill’s larger cylinders, the shell and the air within would provide sufficient shielding from cosmic rays.
Creating and maintaining space habitats, whether in orbit around Earth, on the Moon, Mars, or elsewhere, involves numerous significant drawbacks and challenges. Firstly, the financial investment required to construct and launch these habitats is immense. A ccording to “NASA's Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus” by the National Research Council (2012), even the International Space Station has cost $150 billion. The ISS compared to even a preliminary module of a habitat would cost trillions, so concerns as to whether the construction would even be economically viable as commercial returns would have to be substantial. Moreover, the cost of labour and research will outweigh the raw material cost. In addition, getting these resources from Earth to space is costly. If resources were taken from space the technology and infrastructure to process the materials would have to be substantial enough for massive -scale projects. This would also at first reduce its accessibility as only the extremely w ealthy would have the opportunity to afford such a trip to the habitat. This would further worsen inequality as only a select few would be able to leave Earth, allowing them to escape from environmental degradation and climate change.
The technological challenges of a space habitat include the development of robust life support systems. They must be self-sufficient with clean water, nutritious food, and breathable air. Current technology on the International Space Station partially achieves this, however, NASA (2020) in the article “Space Station Research Explorer” states that the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) is not efficient or reliable enough for a prolonged stay. Sustainable resource management may be challenging as the storing and generation of energy to support life and consistent growing conditions for crops. Smith et al., (2014) in “Nutritional Biochemistry of Space Flight” states that we must improve photovoltaic technology and storage solutions to ensure reliable and consistent energy. The structural integrity of the colony is crucial. It must be able to withstand
extreme temperature variations, micrometeoroid impacts and inevitable mechanical failure. Engineering knowledge and meticulous material choice are required to construct durable habitats that will last long periods without repair.
The deep-space radiation is dangerous to humans and if habitats are to be eventually placed outside the LEO in asteroid belts or Lagrange points*, adequate protection against radiation may become an issue. The research of Cucinotta et al., (2010) in “Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties” has concluded that cosmic radiation would cause a high likelihood of cancer and potential damage to the nervous system. Although health issues concerning microgravity like loss of bone density and muscle atrophy can be mitigated through artificial gravity, it adds to the cost of each module and proposes significant engineering challenges.
Conclusion
The most effective method of extraterrestrial expansion is a combination of both outcomes. This allows us to retain the benefits of both systems, with the protection from outer space provided by a stable atmosphere after being created on Mars, but also a temporary and portable body to live on whilst the geoengineering task takes place. Of course, the shortcomings of each are still prominent, but this symbiotic relationship mitigates the setbacks. For example, a space habitat placed near Mars can be built upon an industrial base, meaning engineers and constructors can create modules for terraforming and deploy them easily. Being near Mars also brings about added benefits such as an easily accessible supply of raw materials, whereas a habitat in deeper space will generate accessibility issues as getting to and fro will require a much longer journey. Moreover, they can be expanded easily to account for an increase in production over time. The modules can be modified to manufacture structures for use in Martian terraforming. As it would be built close to Mars rather than on, it does not have to be expelled out of the atmosphere, vastly reducing costs as the raw materials are easier to launch than a fully built module which may not be able to withstand the exit velocity. Some have proposed these habitats should partially function as stations for refuelling, so transportation over large distances is much more manageable. Shorter transportation allows for more materials being taken on each trip as less space must be allocated for fuel.
A mixture of space habitats and a terraformed Mars ensures multiple layers of safety. If one system fails, the other can support the repair of it.
The short-run application of space habitats could be the construction of one of O’Neill’s (1974) preliminary cylinders to be deployed on the LEO, so it is easily accessible and expanded upon. This would require mining operations on the Moon and asteroids to supply the materials for it as getting materials out of the Earth’s atmosphere is costly and wasteful. Whilst construction is underway, we can visit Mars more often and potentially get humans to spend time on the planet.
The next step would be expanding upon the space habitat construction and moving habitats further away from Earth towards Lagrange points and asteroid belts, so they are completely self -sufficient. Robustly connecting Earth and Mars using stations periodically along the route for refuelling and replenishing used resources would also be an option. Stations nearby can be a place of refuge in case of emergencies such as severe dust storms. The space habitats could serve as experimental platforms for Martian terraforming, it can be used to understand the potential impacts and processes required to change a planet’s ecosystem, thus developing our knowledge of atmospheric science. They pose as a controlled environment where scientists can conduct experiments, for example, they can test methods of soil conditioning and the introduction of microorganisms such as nitrogen-fixing bacteria to ensure a sustainable biosphere on Martian soil. Researchers can study the effectiveness of methods to release greenhouse gases from the Martian regolith and a desirable mix of concentrations of gases to replicate in Mars’ atmosphere. The knowledge gained from building space habitats would be crucial on Mars as we would have proficient knowledge in life support systems, solar energy production and storage. We would have time to revise these technologies on a habitat before deploying those methods to a terraformed Mars.
The long-term implications of extraterrestrial expansion ensure sustainable population growth as Earth’s capacity is finite and we will inevitably feel a strain on the resources and ecosystems provided by the planet. If the entirety of Mars is terraformed, we will be able to house more than those on Earth due to more advanced solutions to space utilisation. The added space allows for balanced distributions of populations, reducing the risk of overpopulation and resource depletion. The pursuit of terraforming will not only drive technology in the area but in technological progression in all areas as methods and mechanisms used will be applied to other fields such as material science, robotics, AI, and sustainable energy practices, therefore aiding technological and scientific advancement. This would improve quality of life and drive economic growth globally. The economic implications of a combination of both methods are immeasurable. The space industry is almost completely untouched. Construction will bring about a massive call for labour and a robust supply chain, generating many new job opportunities in management, construction, and transport.
The industrial processing and mining industries will also see unprecedented growth due to the new availability of resources from asteroids, the Moon, and Mars. The extraterrestrial expansion brings about enhanced resilience against catastrophic events. Due to climate change, the Earth is becoming more vulnerable to natural disasters, ecosystem shifts and extreme weather events. This can pose a significant risk to human life and infrastructure. Self-sustaining space colonies on Mars and in space allow humanity to seek refuge from Earth if Earth becomes inhabitable due to a disaster. Humaninduced catastrophes are also reduced due to the diversifying of humanity across different celestial locations allowing large-scale catastrophes such as nuclear conflict or pandemics to be localised. This relationship overall reduces the dependency on Earth and progresses to an interplanetary network where humans can thrive through capitalising from the strengths of different, self -sustaining locations. It also allows for further expansion across the solar system by creating a stable basis.
Terraforming Mars is a massive undertaking that will take centuries to achieve. Space habitats can help in approaching the task incrementally. By first establishing habitable environments in the LEO and then space, we can gradually expand our capabilities and knowledge. This approach reduces the risks and chance of failure associated with immediate, large -scale terraforming projects and provides valuable data and experience as at this instance we are in no shape to begin any extraterrestrial construction projects.
Glossary
* Soletta - a magnifying device constructed in space to amplify the solar radiation a celestial body receives.
*Lagrange Points - “positions in space where the gravitational forces of a two-body system like the Sun and Earth produce enhanced regions of attraction and repulsion. These can be used by spacecraft as "parking spots" in space to remain in a fixed position with minimal fuel consumption.”NASA, “What are Lagrange Points?”
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Humanities and Social Sciences Faculty
Gavriella Epstein-Lightman HISTORY
Gavriella Epstein-Lightman’s interest in the anti-feminist campaigns of Phyllis Schlafly led her to explore Schlafly’s reasons for opposing the feminist movement. This in turn prompted her to explore the wider reasons for the rise of the Conservative Right in America, and to consider how Schlafly’s work intersected with broader societal changes. Gavriella is doing A Levels in English Literature, History and Politics and wants to study History at university. She aspires to become a writer and journalist.
Was Phyllis Schlafly’s campaign against the women’s libera8on movement the most significant reason for the rise of the conserva8ve Right as a poli8cal force in the USA?
This essay will a,empt to deconstruct the causes of the fall of New Deal liberalism and the rise of the conserva;ve Right as a poli;cal force. For the purposes of this essay, the conserva;ve right will be defined as ‘a social and poli;cal movement that gained momentum during the post-World War II period’ (Phillips-Fein, 2011), with its most central concerns being an;-communism, laissez-faire economics and tradi;onal family values. A myriad of factors, interconnected and interdependent, were significant reasons for the rise of the conserva;ve right. It is important to note that it would be impossible in an essay of this length adequately to cover all of these reasons, however three significant reasons will be considered.
First, a factor in the rise of the conserva;ve right was the perceived failure of the New Deal liberalism that had risen to the fore amidst the economic and social turmoil of the 1970s. Secondly, another factor in the rise of the conserva;ve right was the poli;cisa;on of significant numbers of conserva;ve evangelicals as religion proved to be a powerful tool for mobilisa;on (Kathleen M. Blee, Conserva;ve and Right-Wing Movements , 2010), with many people being mo;vated by fears that America was in moral decline amid the prevalence of counter-culture. The addi;on of this sizeable fac;on provided a strong poli;cal impetus to the conserva;ve movement from the 1970s (Critchlow, Phyllis Schlafly and Grassroots Conserva;sm , 2005). Finally, Phyllis Schlafly’s campaign against the women’s libera;on movement was a factor in the rise of the conserva;ve right. For the purposes of this essay, the women’s libera;on movement will be defined as emergence, during the period 1963-82, of a poli;cally ac;ve form of feminism which was not a united or homogenous movement but nonetheless aimed to bring about sex equality (Buchanan, 2010). Through her opposi;on to the ERA and its social and legal ramifica;ons, Schlafly was able to create a broad coali;on of women who employed highly effec;ve lobbying and organisa;onal techniques in order to halt the momentum of the feminist movement, in the process making a substan;al contribu;on to the rise of the conserva;ve right. Schlafly was able to help cra` an ideology that brought together disparate groups – free market enthusiasts, libertarians, an;-communists, and social conserva;ves (Kathleen M. Blee, Conserva;ve and Right-Wing Movements , 2010) – with a common aim that unified free market principles and tradi;onal family and social values.
On November 4, 1980, mul;ple factors worked in tandem to culminate in the ardent conserva;ve Ronald Reagan achieving a landslide victory over the incumbent President, Jimmy Carter. Reagan won more than 50% of the vote to Carter’s 41%, with the la,er only managing to capture 6 states (Britannica, 2023 ). This marked the dawn of a new era in which once -dominant liberalism became marginalised, and the conserva;ve Right reigned supreme.
The perceived failure of New Deal liberalism
The perceived failure of New Deal liberalism was a significant factor in the rise of the conserva;ve Right as a poli;cal force in the USA. A`er Franklin D. Roosevelt ended a decade of laissez-faire governance with his sweeping New Deal Reforms in the 1930s, New Deal liberalism emerged to command a high degree of poli;cal consensus in the years that followed, with successive Presidents presiding over a mammoth expansion of the federal government (Hamby, 2003). New Deal liberalism was characterised by a belief that large-scale government interven;on in society was necessary to improve social equality. Over the course of the mid-twen;eth century, New Deal liberalism helped America recover from the devasta;on wrought by the Depression, ensured the introduc;on of social security, and extended civil liber;es to more groups within society. Nonetheless, by the mid-1970s, liberalism was perceived by much of America to have been a failure. There were a number of reasons
for this. America was mired in the seemingly unwinnable Vietnam War, the economy was being ravaged by stagfla;on, America’s military pres;ge was in decline, the oil embargo imposed by Arab countries in the light of the Yom Kippur War resulted in severe oil shortages, and the na;on was divided by racial violence. Liberalism bore much of the blame for these problems, whether fairly or otherwise. Indeed, Andrew Busch argues in his book about the Reagan victory in 1980 that the economic climate of the 1970s ‘threw the dominant economic paradigm of the ;me (Keynesianism) into disarray’ (Busch, 2005) This lent support to the conserva;ve argument that federal government interven;on was not only incapable with dealing with the issues that were arising, but was worsening these problems. The legi;mate func;on of government, neoconserva;ves argued, should be to maintain na;onal security, preserve public order through the enforcement of law, and eradicate obstacles to the free exchange of goods (Critchlow, 2005). Neoconserva;ves contended that high taxa;on levels and government interven;on in private enterprise were hindering economic growth (Kenneth Minogue, 2024). Hence, the tumult of the 1970s regarding the economy, people’s standards of living, and social divisions conferred considerable power to conserva;ves who would have once been poli;cal observers on the fringes of poli;cs, giving millions of people a reason to see the status quo as something that was no longer working – something that needed to change. Ul;mately, this strong desire for change culminated in the breakdown of the New Deal electoral coali;on, which had been formed from various disparate cons;tuencies within society, including the working-class, white Southerners and AfricanAmericans (Busch, 2005). In turn, there was rightward movement amongst the electorate on various issues, including crime and rela;ons with the Soviet Union. The fact that Reagan’s ‘moral tradi;onalism’ is o`en presented as a key reason why he won over certain demographic groups is testament to the extent of this rightward shi`.
It has been suggested that the conserva;ve movement in the 1970s and 1980s was actually weaker than it seemed. Kimberly Phillips-Fein argues that its ‘victories were highly opportunis;c’, more indica;ve of the benefits afforded by the perceived failure of New Deal liberalism than ‘a genuine deepening commitment of the electorate to conserva;ve principles and ideas’ (Phillips-Fein, 2011). Whilst the rise of the conserva;ve right could not have occurred without a reason for people to abandon liberalism, it remains the case that the conserva;ve movement’s ability to present itself as a viable, appealing alterna;ve to liberalism was instrumental in people ascribing to conserva;sm. Phyllis Schlafly’s an;-feminist, pro-family movement was hugely important in this regard, with her development of an interconnected network of organisa;ons and effec;ve communica;on of an;feminist messaging forming a major reason why people felt compelled to join the conserva;ve right. Likewise, in his 1980 elec;on campaign Reagan presented himself as representa;ve of op;mism and change, offering sought-a`er answers to the problems America was facing, namely ‘less domes;c government, a more muscular United States abroad, and renewed respect for tradi;onal moral virtues’ (Busch, 2005)
Ul;mately, it was only when New Deal liberalism came to be seen as a failure that conserva;sm became a powerful force in American poli;cs, able to command a significant majority of the popula;on (Critchlow, 2005). However, what made conserva;ve grassroots campaigns such as the STOP ERA campaign led by Phyllis Schlafly so crucial to the resurgence of conserva;sm was the way she took advantage of the external circumstances and manipulated this perceived failure of New Deal liberalism in order to gain a recep;ve audience for her views.
Phyllis Schlafly’s campaign
The role of Phyllis Schlafly’s campaign against the women’s libera;on movement and its importance to the rise of the conserva;ve right as a poli;cal force will now be considered. To assess Schlafly’s significance, the wider context of the movement must first be established. Schlafly’s campaign was one of many which fell under the umbrella term of the ‘New Chris;an Right’ (NCR). This can be defined as a ‘social movement that a,empts to mobilise evangelical Protestants and other Chris;ans into conserva;ve poli;cal ac;on’ (Wilcox, 2019). Foremost a defensive movement, the NCR sought to protect moral values against a,ack from liberals and progressives. Some claim that the NCR movement was comprised of as many as 50 million conserva;ve Protestants, 30 million ‘morally conserva;ve’ Catholics, as well as allies among Mormons and Orthodox Jews (Lienesch, 1982). It is key to understanding the impact of the NCR that it was a broad movement which encompassed organisa;ons and leaders with no single agreed-upon agenda, but rather overlapping agendas, with each organisa;on emphasising different issues. With the feminist movement rising to the fore as a powerful poli;cal force with bipar;san support, and the ERA being ra;fied by 30 states within a year of being passed by Congress, the feminist movement seemed to be riding a wave of unstoppable momentum. Time magazine said that ‘feminism has transcended the feminist movement… matured beyond ideology to a new status of general – and some;mes unconscious – acceptance’ (Unknown, Great Changes, New Chances, Tough Choices , 1976). It was in this context that Schlafly established the STOP ERA movement in September 1972, in doing so drawing ‘thousands of women into an an; -feminist, pro-family crusade’, hal;ng the momentum of women’s libera;on and propelling a resurgent Right (Critchlow, 2005).
Schlafly had already established herself as a prominent Republican grassroots ac;vist before STOP ERA. Her self-published book ‘A Choice Not An Echo’ (1964) sold some 3 million copies in six months and was widely credited with securing Barry Goldwater the Republican nomina;on. In it, Schlafly a,acked ‘Rockefeller Republicans’ (the moderate-liberal fac;on of the GOP), calling on conserva;ves to vote for Goldwater in order to prevent the Eastern power elite from taking over the party and country. The publica;on of this book was a landmark moment in Schlafly’s poli;cal career – its success brought her na;onal recogni;on as a rising star of the GOP right, and it taught her the power of grassroots ac;vism to effect change within the Republican Party. However, Goldwater’s 1964 presiden;al campaign proved hugely unsuccessful: President Johnson won by 16 million votes, and Goldwater only secured a pi;ful 52 electoral college votes. In the short term, the conserva;ve Right seemed to be broken, and as the GOP looked to rebuild, it conducted a purge of the most outwardly conserva;ve forces, leading the moderates to regain control. However, the mere fact that Goldwater had won the Republican nomina;on showed the power of grassroots ac;vism . Importantly, too, Schlafly had gained credibility within the GOP, which was significant to her procuring Republican support for STOP ERA in the 1970s. Schlafly developed her philosophy and communicated it in such a way that she was able to recruit millions of people to her cause. Her STOP ERA movement was founded on the essen;alism that characterised men as providers and protecters and women as domes;cally inclined nurturers in need of protec;on (Dowland, 2009). This chimed with the religious beliefs of her predominantly Chris;an supporters, who believed that the Bible promoted inherent differences between men and women that extended beyond biology. Indeed, Schlafly interpreted the wording of the ERA in such a way that she warned of the prospect of unisex public toilets, women being dra`ed, and an end to alimony. Since Schlafly arrived at these conclusions ‘based on a reading of the law that emphasised the most extreme possible eventuali;es of ERA ra;fica;on’ (Dowland, 2009), many of the consequences that she warned of were highly unlikely to occur as a result of the passing of the ERA. Nonetheless, Schlafly’s warnings resonated deeply with many suburban women, who feared their statuses as housewives being eroded
as a result of the ERA. Importantly, Schlafly was able to change the narra;ve associated with the ERA – it became not something designed to promote and further women’s rights, but rather a symbol of the erosion of women’s rights. In contrast, her own arguments, as presented in her 1977 book ‘The Power of the Posi;ve Woman’, were framed (as the book’s ;tle indicates) as the posi;ve, op;mis;c alterna;ve to the women’s libera;on movement. Schlafly wrote that ‘to the Posi;ve Woman, her par;cular set of problems is not a conspiracy against her, but a challenge to her character and her capabili;es’, adding that ‘her poten;al is limited only by the ar;ficial barriers erected by a nega;ve view of herself or by the stul;fying myths of the women’s libera;on movement’ (Schlafly, 1977)
Schlafly argued that the feminists were a,emp;ng to convince women that they were hindered by society, when in fact women had boundless opportunity, and it was not incumbent on the government to solve what she regarded as their ‘personal’ problems. These arguments resonated with people, enabling Schlafly to obtain na;onwide support (as evidenced by the significant increase in the number of subscribers to her monthly newsle,er from 3,500 in 1972 to 50,000 by the end of the 1970s) (Williams, 2010). It wasn’t specifically the leaders themselves that enabled the New Right to become such a potent poli;cal force – it was the way those leaders were able to inspire and mobilise people at a grassroots level (Kathleen M. Blee, Conserva;ve and Right-Wing Movements, 2010). This was exactly what Schlafly was able to do, through communica;ng her ideas in a skilful and original way and framing the ERA debate in a way that posi;oned her as a defender of women.
As her arguments received na;onal prominence, Schlafly used her opposi;on to the feminist movement to bring a whole new sec;on of society into the poli;cal fold – white middle class housewives – who had previously been unengaged in poli;cs. However, it is a misconcep;on to believe that Schlafly only appealed to a narrow subsec;on of society. Part of what enabled her campaigning to have such a significant impact on the rise of the conserva;ve Right was her ability to build a broad coali;on of support. In a recent interview, Anne Schlafly Cori, her daughter, told me that Schlafly was ‘able to build her group with different fac;ons of people who had fundamental disagreements with each other’, including Mormons, Catholics, Evangelicals and Orthodox Jews, bridging the divides by encouraging these fac;ons to ‘only work together on certain issues’ (Schlafly Cori, 2024). In doing so, Schlafly was able to ‘forge strategic alliances to defeat the ERA’, establishing the founda;ons for the emergence and renewed importance of the religious right in the 1980s (Hemmer, 2016). The development of this coali;on augmented the religious right and enabled it to have more significant influence over poli;cs both within the GOP and outside of it.
On June 30, 1982, Phyllis Schlafly triumphed in her struggle. The ERA’s extended deadline of ra;fica;on had arrived, but the ERA was s;ll three states short of ra;fica;on. The majority of feminist ac;vists and lawmakers accepted defeat; indeed, by 1982 the women’s libera;on movement had lost its momentum and was a shadow of its former self. Hence, in the short term, Schlafly succeeded in her primary goal: preven;ng the passage of the ERA. This achievement was remarkable, considering the wave of momentum that the feminist movement had been riding. Alongside this, Schlafly had managed to shi` the GOP from a party that supported women’s rights (it had been the first party to endorse the ERA in 1940) to one that promoted her an;-feminist plaoorm. This was a remarkable transforma;on – a testament to the considerable influence that Schlafly wielded over Republican poli;cs. This in turn allowed the GOP to appeal to and gain the votes of this broad mul;faith coali;on, culmina;ng in Reagan’s victory in the 1980 elec;on. Indeed, 67% of white evangelicals voted for Reagan in 1980, and this figure increased to 76% in 1984, illustra;ng the depth of support. However, in the long term, some consider Schlafly’s impact to be somewhat diminished. Whilst the ERA has, to this day, not been passed, courts and legislatures have brought about many of the changes which it sought to introduce (Alex Cohen, 2024). Same sex marriage is legal, as is abor;on in much of America. Some also argue that Schlafly’s impact was limited since they consider other reasons to have been
more significant in defea;ng the ERA – some legislators were concerned that the ERA would allow for the federal government to infringe on states’ rights, whilst the insurance industry deployed extensive lobbying to prevent its passage, as segrega;ng actuarial tables had brought them millions of dollars in profits. However, Schlafly’s campaign was not solely about ERA and an;-feminism, it was about what the impact of her campaign and the trac;on it gained represented – a rejec;on of the New Deal liberal consensus, and the religious right asser;ng itself.
Viewing Schlafly’s STOP ERA movement within the context of the New Chris;an Right and the New Right as a whole, it is clear that her poli;cal campaigning and de` organisa;onal skills were extremely significant in expanding the influence of the conserva;ve right. Her fight against the ERA was part of a wider ‘ba,le against government intrusion on individual and family rights’ which was ascendant poli;cally under the auspices of the New Right (Marshall, 1985) Even if, in the long term, many of the aims of the Second Wave of Feminism have been achieved, this does not detract from the fact that Schlafly reoriented Republican poli;cs and shaped the GOP’s agenda, providing a blueprint from which the religious Right could rise to the fore of American poli;cs in the 1980s, a method of mobilising people to get ac;vely involved in poli;cs. Arguably Schlafly’s most significant victory was not defea;ng the ERA, but the way she was able to shape views and influence public discourse more widely, through her television appearances, wealth of published works, and monthly newsle,ers. The expanded pool of new voters that Schlafly introduced allowed the religious Right to bring about a transforma;on within the Republican Party, as ‘the Republican plaoorm became an unambiguous instrument of social conserva;sm’ (Busch, 2005). This meant the New Right was no longer a fringe movement – it was a central part of mainstream poli;cs.
The poli=cisa=on of Evangelicals and the role of the Moral Majority
Another factor in the rise of the conserva;ve right as a poli;cal force in the USA was the poli;cisa;on of the evangelical community, and the rise of pressure groups like the Moral Majority which facilitated this Evangelicals can be defined as Protestants who ‘believe in the necessity of a born-again experience of conversion to belief in Jesus Christ for salva;on’, have a fundamentalist view of the Bible and contend that such beliefs must be expressed publicly (Bebbington, 2003 ). Evangelicals cons;tuted a significant propor;on of the support for the New Chris;an Right. Previously unengaged in secular poli;cs for the most part, the various organisa;ons and leaders within the NCR were successful at bringing significant numbers of Evangelicals into the movement and mobilising them into an important vo;ng bloc. As noted above, the religious Right was not monolithic, and Catholics, Mormons and Orthodox Jews were also involved, although to a lesser extent than evangelicals. By opposing feminism, abor;on and gay rights, the New Chris;an Right was able to bridge the longstanding divisions between Catholics and Protestants, sa;sfy the diverse range of cons;tuent fac;ons, and unite around a specific set of issues (Dowland, 2009). Nonetheless, the primary focus of this essay is on evangelicals.
In the 1960s, American culture was becoming more liberal, amidst the rise of counter-culture movements including gay rights, civil rights and feminism. The Chief Jus;ce of the Supreme Court, Earl Warren, had presided over a more liberal-leaning Court that had passed sweeping progressive changes and used the court as ‘a vessel for social change’ (Smentkowski, 2024 ). This context allowed the leaders of the NCR to develop a philosophy that was able to present this counter-culture scene as leading to religious and moral decline. Hence, not only did support amongst evangelicals for the ideas espoused by the NCR increase, but so did their willingness to engage ac;vely in poli;cal ac;vism to defend their moral and religious values. This ‘gave potent poli;cal impetus to grassroots conserva;sm’, in the 1970s in par;cular (Critchlow, 2005).
This mobilisa;on of evangelicals led to the crea;on of pressure groups within the NCR, including Focus on the Family in 1977 and Concerned Women for America, which sought to ‘protect and promote biblical values among all ci;zens’ (Schreiber, 2008). Arguably the most significant of these pressure groups was the Moral Majority, founded in 1979 by the Reverend Jerry Falwell, which, in its founding pamphlet, described its purpose as ‘providing a voice for a return to moral sanity’ in the USA, advoca;ng for illegalising abor;on, promo;ng the ‘tradi;onal’ family unit, and opposing the ERA (Moral Majority, 1979). The Moral Majority used its vo;ng bloc to support candidates that ascribed to its socially conserva;ve values in order to bring evangelicals into posi;ons of state power, and lobbied for a more rightward shi` within the Republican Party. However, whilst Falwell succeeded in gepng evangelicals involved in poli;cs and registering to vote, there was a limit to the level of poli;cal influence that the Moral Majority could a,ain. Falwell’s organisa;on never extended beyond Bap;st churches in the South (Critchlow, 2005). Even though the Moral Majority had a base of support, its principles and values were at odds with the majority of the popula;o n, and it was viewed by many to be ‘an intolerant movement seeking to impose a narrow, sectarian morality on America’ (Wilcox, 2019), a,emp;ng to impose a religious worldview that admonished lifestyles that differed from those espoused by conserva;ve Chris;ans. This is evidenced by how mul;ple opinion polls throughout the 1980s found that Falwell was one of the most unpopular men in America – in 1981, 41% viewed Falwell unfavourably (with just 16% viewing him favourably), and by 1987, 61% viewed him in ‘not very high regard’ (Unknown, People & Ideas: Jerry Falwell, PBS , 2010) Addi;onally, in 1981, 50% of the popula;on was aware of the Moral Majority, and of them two thirds viewed it unfavourably. Hence, only between 12 and 20% of the popula;on viewed the Moral Majority favourably (Joseph Tamney, Explaining Support for the Moral Majority, 1988) , illustra;ng that this movement, even at its zenith, only garnered a minority of support.
Whilst the actual popularity of the Moral Majority was limited, it benefi,ed from a far higher perceived level of influence, which consequently magnified the poli;cal clout of the religious Right. In his book ‘God’s Own Party’, Daniel Williams explains that Falwell ‘inflated the number of his supporters in a successful a,empt to increase his influence’, claiming that his television programme Old-Time Gospel Hour had 25 million weekly viewers, rather than the 1.5 million indicated by Arbitron ra;ngs (Hadden & Swann, 1981). In turn, Republican leaders treated Falwell as ‘the real power broker’ at the 1980 Republican conven;on, an influen;al lobbyist (Williams, 2010). This demonstrates how the leaders of the religious Right were able to a,ain influence that far outstripped their genuine extent of support.
Significant to understanding the posi;on of these pressure groups and evangelist preachers within the New Right is the interplay between the New Right as a whole and the Chris;an elements within it. In his ar;cle ‘Right-Wing Religion’, Michael Lienesch explains that New Right opera;ves ‘provided access, informa;on, and resources’ and connected newly inducted Chris;an allies with established conserva;ve organisa;ons like Phyllis Schlafly’s Eagle Forum (Lienesch, 1982). He further notes how, in return, Chris;an preachers and evangelists were able, using their base of influence, to spread the messaging of the New Right to conserva;ve Chris;ans using their substan;al mailing lists and television audiences. ‘Far from a ‘grassroots’ uprising’, Lienesch argues, ‘the religious right was organised from the top down’, with New Right strategists outlining the messaging which was to be promoted by Chris;an recruits. This interes;ng perspec;ve runs counter to the widely-held academic view that the New Right succeeded primarily because it was a grassroots movement. However, it remains the case that the New Right can s;ll be considered a grassroots movement even if the messaging was controlled by a small group of strategists, as this messaging would not have had the desired impact had it not been communicated at a grassroots level and gained trac;on.
Ul;mately, a significant propor;on of evangelicals came to be convinced that their religion was a reason for them to get involved in poli;cs. By 1980, the Moral Majority had around 2 million members, and by 1983, 40% of evangelicals supported it. Further, no Democra;c candidate since has won a majority of white evangelical support in a presiden;al race (Williams, 2010) Thus, the success (both short and long term) of the NCR and the organisa;ons within this umbrella movement in mobilising evangelicals is evident. All three candidates in the 1980 elec;on – Carter, Reagan and Anderson –described themselves as born-again Chris;ans (Miller, 2014), a,es;ng to the force of the evangelical vo;ng bloc in American poli;cs. Falwell’s Moral Majority has been widely credited with ensuring Reagan’s victory in the 1980 presiden;al elec;on; indeed, Falwell himself perpetuated this idea. There is academic debate regarding how accurate this claim is. Reagan’s victory resulted from a number of interconnected factors, including (but not limited to) challenges to Carter from within his party, his inability to resolve the Iran Hostage Crisis, the oil shortages and economic stagna;on. Further, , it is too simplis;c to assert that following Reagan’s victory the support of the evangelical vo;ng bloc gave movements such as the Moral Majority the poli;cal clout to demand the changes to legisla;on it desired. In truth, while Republican elected officials were grateful for their support, this was not sufficient to compel them to do any more that ‘lip-service’ to the conserva;ve social agenda (Conger, 2019). Democra;c control of the Senate, Reagan’s emphasis on the economy, and a pluralis;c electorate all meant that the religious Right did not see the majority of its agenda passed (Banwart, 2013). This resulted in Pat Robertson, a televangelist and leader within the NCR, running for the Republican nomina;on in 1988. These observa;ons support the view that whilst a significant propor;on of evangelicals entered secular poli;cs, the importance of the involvement of this group must be qualified.
Conclusion
In conclusion, it is simplis;c and inaccurate to iden;fy one factor as the sole reason for the rise of the conserva;ve Right as a poli;cal force. Rather, a mul;tude of factors working in tandem with each other brought about the ‘Reagan Revolu;on’. As Democra;c dominance in the South was eroded, Republican poli;cians realised that they could win Evangelical votes, and thus win the South, by taking a stand on issues important to these culturally conserva;ve voters. To do this, they looked to evangelical leaders for advice on what these issues were. Had na;onal Republican leaders not been sympathe;c to the religious Right’s demands, the movement would not have been able to amass the same level of influence (Williams, 2010). The perceived failure of liberalism and the breakdown of the New Deal coali;on created the condi;ons in which leaders within the religious Right, like Rev Falwell and Phyllis Schlafly, could gain support and poli;cise groups like evangelicals. In turn, Republican leaders could consult these leaders (who had considerable bases of support), and obtain their approval if they incorporated agenda issues important to the religious Right. This illustrates how each of the factors that contributed to the rise of the conserva;ve Right as a poli;cal force were interconnected. No single factor alone could have brought about such a profound poli;cal transforma;on or did in fact do so
However, whilst each factor was significant, ul;mately grassroots movements like the campaign led by Phyllis Schlafly were most significant to the rise of the conserva;ve right. It was movements such as these which energised and galvanised significant cons;tuencies within society. The New Right then built upon this by connec;ng this web of single issue campaigns to mould a philosophy that ‘fused three basic thrusts (economic freedom, an;communism, and social coherence) and two general orienta;ons (libertarian and tradi;onalist)’ (Busch, 2005). This resonated with millions and realised the poli;cal poten;al of the conserva;ve Right. The development of this philosophy and the poli;cal force unlocked was all dependent on there being the enthusiasm and poli;cal involvement – the
commi,ed vo;ng bloc – to ascribe to it. Schlafly’s campaign was of course not alone in amassing grassroots support for the conserva;ve right, as ‘STOP ERA was but one organisa;on in a massive conserva;ve poli;cal coali;on’ (Marshall, 1985). However, her movement was one of the first, leading the way for others to follow. Schlafly became an icon of the conserva;ve Right, a touchpoint for a set of values which resonated with many.
In 1960, at an Illinois Federa;on of Republican Women luncheon, Schlafly introduced keynote speaker Goldwater to the audience. ‘Senator Goldwater is a living lesson in the virtue of standing firm on principle, even if you are a minority of one’. Indeed, Schlafly pursued that ‘virtue’ herself, not only throughout the 1970s but right up un;l her death in 2016. ‘She was the first to put herself forward’, Anne Schlafly Cori says of her mother, describing her as ‘the lightning rod’. Schlafly and other grassroo ts organisers started a powerful movement that was more than just a cause célèbre – it was a unifier and a symbol of the electorate’s rightward shi` over the course of the 1970s.
Gavriella Epstein-Lightman
References
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Banwart, D. (2013). Jerry Falwell, the Rise of the Moral Majority, and the 1980 Elec;on . Western Illinois Historical Review
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Busch, A. (2005). Reagan's Victory: The PresidenGal ElecGon Of 1980 And The Rise Of The Right. University Press of Kansas .
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Critchlow, D. T. (2005). Phyllis Schlafly and Grassroots ConservaGsm . Princeton University Press.
Critchlow, D. T. (2005). Phyllis Schlafly and Grassroots ConservaGsm, A Woman's Crusade. Princeton University Press.
Dowland, S. (2009). 'Family Values' and the Forma;on of a Chris;an Right Agenda. Church History, 606-31.
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Hemmer, N. (2016, September 7). How Phyllis Schlafly - grassroots acGvist, media innovator - remade the Republican Party. Retrieved from Vox Web site: h,ps://www.vox.com/2016/9/7/12837748/phyllis-schlafly-grassroots-ac;vist-mediarepublican-era
Hughes, M. (2024, February 11). What Is The CharismaGc ChrisGan Moveemnt. Retrieved from Chris;an.net: h,ps://chris;an.net/theology-and-spirituality/what-is-the-charisma;cchris;an-movement/
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Oliver West
PSYCHOLOGY
Oliver West chose consciousness as the central topic of his ERP, having been drawn in by a phenomenon so well-known to all of us yet so poorly understood by science. In considering how consistent modern theories of consciousness are with evolution by natural selection, the project aims to shed light on the issue from the perspective of ‘why’ as opposed to the more typical focus on ‘how’ seen in modern consciousness research. Oliver is studying Maths, Further Maths, Physics and Chemistry, and hopes to study Maths at university.
Reconciling evolu,on with modern theories of consciousness
Oliver West
1 Introduc*on
The mechanism behind consciousness is one of the greatest unsolved mysteries in science, and may well be among the most intractable, despite the fact that it is arguably the most fundamental aspect of human existence (Chalmers, 1995). Much recent research has been directed at resolving the ‘how’, but less so the ‘why’ – in parEcular, the quesEon of how consciousness could have emerged under the theory of evoluEon, in which the development of traits can only be explained in terms of a survival advantage that they provide.
For nearly all of the history of the study of consciousness, it has been within the scope of philosophy, and it is only with very recent advances in the science of the mind – fMRI, for example – that it has become conceivable for a scienEfic explanaEon to be reached. However, this remains unlikely with current scienEfic tools, and thus the current state of its study even in scienEfic circles is more speculaEve, concerned with criEcal evaluaEon of theories in the manner of philosophy rather than applicaEon of the scienEfic method. Nevertheless, some ideas that are acceptable in philosophy but are essenEally unfalsifiable and cannot be established scienEfically, such as invocaEons of the supernatural, must be rejected as the study of consciousness becomes increasingly scienEfic; as such, only ideas consistent with materialism – that is, the theory that holds that all natural phenomena can be explained in terms of maPer and its interacEons – will be considered here.
It is extremely difficult to see how consciousness could provide any survival advantage in and of itself, given that it is an enErely internal experience; indeed, the really challenging problem of consciousness is not how it impacts our interacEons with the world around us, i.e. anything that would provide any explanaEon of why it might have evolved, but how it creates what we call experience. This is perhaps best illustrated by the concept of the philosophical zombie, a hypotheEcal being that behaves exactly as if conscious without in fact having any internal experience – unless it is clear that such a being could either not exist or would be significantly disadvantaged in some way, it is difficult to explain what advantage a conscious being would have over it. And yet, evoluEon is excepEonally good at eradicaEng useless traits, especially those that consume the most energy (LahE et al., 2009) – if consciousness were merely an epiphenomenal corollary of some other system, we would expect the machinery of natural selecEon to be on its way to eliminaEng it. Maybe consciousness really is just an energy-wasEng blip in the long march of natural history, but its longevity in humans and potenEal presence in other animals, as well as our admiPedly unscienEfic sense that it is an integral part of our existence, beg to differ. We are thus led to ask: what possible mental structure or process which does have an obvious survival advantage is so closely Eed to consciousness that the former cannot exist witho ut the laPer?
2 Integrated informa*on theory
Integrated informaEon theory (IIT) is one leading modern theory of consciousness which suggests that the phenomenon can be viewed as arising from the large amount of data stored by the state of the brain at any one point (the informa(on), and the fact that this informaEon cannot be easily decomposed into smaller, independent units (the integra(on) (Tononi, 2004). The
theory proposes a complex theoreEcal framework for understanding what exactly informaEon integraEon is from a mathemaEcal perspecEve. However, it has been aPacked, especially recently, for being unfalsifiable or pseudoscienEfic, and its predicEon that a sufficiently large collecEon of logic gates is capable of consciousness is o]en labelled as panpsychist and received with ridicule, since it is so at odds with our innate percepEon of what it means for something to be conscious – as was conveyed in a lePer from 124 consciousness experts, many feel that it does not offer the requisite evidence to jusEfy such a controversial perspecEve (Fleming, 2023).
In our context, one of the consideraEons is the implicaEon of IIT on the consciousness of other animals. It is generally held that other animals possess some level of consciousness (Low, 2012), and indeed Tononi makes no aPempt to deny that the theory implies this, referring to consciousness as ‘graded’ – that is, a conEnuum. IIT suggests that consciousness should be a funcEon of the quanEty of informaEon integraEon in a mind, which we would expect to be in turn a funcEon of the number of neurons it has; however, we would certainly assert that, for example, a leech, with on the order of 104 neurons compared to humans’ 1010, is not conscious in any meaningful definiEon of the term. So in that sense, consciousness is clearly not a pure conEnuum and, in the absence of any region or structure of the brain which is postulated to be responsible for consciousness, we are inevitably led to the very difficult quesEon: how many neurons does a brain have to have before it can be deemed conscious? Such a quesEon, reminiscent of the famous sorites paradox, may be impossible to saEsfactorily answer, and so this is a challenge for IIT to address.
Perhaps even more challenging is the fact that, by any measure, there exist animals with more neurons than human beings – dolphins, whales and elephants all outnumber humans by some metrics. But it is surely undeniable that human beings have a consciousness that is in some sense more sophisEcated than all of these animals – not only are we conscious, but we ask the quesEon of why we are conscious and write essays on the topic, a behaviour never observed in any other animal – and yet, it is difficult to see how IIT in its current state could provide any predicEon besides its current one, that not only are these other animals as conscious as humans, but in fact more so. We might respond that this argument only addresses the informaEon side of things, and that the integraEon part of the theory is what accounts for the brain’s structure, as opposed to simply seeing it as the sum of its consEtuent neurons. Nonetheless, even this appears to be able to be parameterized, in terms not of the number or neurons but the synapses that connect them, which is representaEve of how integrated the system is – and yet, there is no concrete evidence that humans have more synapses than the other animals in quesEon, although there is none against this proposiEon either.
We might sEll maintain that simply counEng neurons or synapses is excessively reducEonist – for example, it is commonly argued that what separates humans from, say, elephants, is the density of neurons specifically in the cerebral cortex (Dicke and Roth, 2016). Yet, it is IIT that proposes the reducEonist philosophy of essenEally abstracEng the brain as a set of connecEons with no regard for its structure, and it is difficult to see how consideraEons of the roles that different parts of the brain have to play could be integrated with this perspecEve.
Another issue concerns the level of consciousness of children compared to adults. We know that the quanEty of neurons in the brain is actually at its highest in newborn babies, and only decreases as we grow older (Tierney and Nelson, 2009) – yet, if babies can be said to be conscious at all, it must certainly be conceded that their level of consciousness is lower than that of an adult (as we discuss later, lack of memory formaEon in early life is strong evidence for this), and this is a non sequitur from the framework of IIT.
Thus, while IIT’s argument is certainly appealing in terms of essenEally bypassing any need for an evoluEonary explanaEon, by posiEng that it is simply an inevitable consequence of brain structure, it does struggle to adequately assess the consciousnes s of other animals, children, and even logic gates, depending on your philosophical posiEon.
3
A7en*on schema theory
The aPenEon schema theory (AST) proposes that consciousness emerges from a model that the brain constructs of aPenEon – i.e. what it is focused on at any point in Eme – in order to aid with controlling that aPenEon (Graziano, 2013). Thus, in making reference to this model of what it is processing, the brain is led to believe that it is aware of what it is processing, not merely unconsciously processing it. EvoluEonarily, it is fairly clear what advantage an aPenEon schema might provide; Graziano cites examples of a degradaEon of control of aPenEon in the absence of awareness, and it is clear that control of aPenEon provides an evoluEonary advantage in terms of contribuEng to the understanding of and ability to carry out more complex tasks by allowing sEmuli to be selected for allocaEon of the brain’s limited resources.
However, there is an important disEncEon to be made in terms of what AST is capable of explaining, between the problem of qualia and the problem of self. The former concerns our awareness and experience of external phenomena – the redness of red or the ‘appleness’ of an apple’s taste – and this is what AST is readily able to explain, by proposing that our redness and appleness are components or tools in the aPenEon schema, used to modulate percepEon. On the other hand, AST does not provide a full resoluEon for the problem of self – the quesEon of why we are aware of our thoughts, our feelings and why we have a sense of existence. Even though, as Graziano menEons, the mechanism of AST ‘is relevant to any type of informaEon to which the brain can pay aPenEon’ (Graziano and Webb, 2015, p. 9), which he argues includes internal thoughts, what it is sEll unable to elucidate is our awareness not merely of the thoughts within our mind, but the mind’s very existence. While it could be argued that an awaren ess of the thoughts within our mind essenEally implies an awareness of the existence of the mind itself, this can really not be taken as a given – although the two do seem to go hand in hand from our perspecEve, there is no reason to expect one to arise directly as a consequence of the other.
If on the other hand we choose to accept that AST does resolve both the issues of qualia and self, this sEll seems to imply surprising things when it comes to the consciousness of other animals. The strong correlaEon that AST draws between awareness and aPenEon and aPenEon and good funcEoning suggests that unconscious animals, which most would agree is the majority of them, would be significantly less capable of advanced behaviour. While we would agree with this to some extent, Graziano goes so far as to compare the proposed behaviour of the human arm in the absence of awareness to anaesthesia (Graziano and Webb, 2015, p. 8), implying that we would expect unconscious animals to behave as if anaestheEsed – this is of course not what we actually witness. We might respond that these animals are in possession of a less sophisEcated aPenEon schema (although Graziano himself makes no suggesEon of the potenEal for gradaEon in the theory), but this would force us to accept an excepEonally high level of consciousness in essenEally any animal which rouEnely maintains a high level of coordinaEon –which is at least all large mammals. Perhaps this implicaEon is not to be rejected out of hand, but nonetheless it is hardly supported by the body of current research on the topic.
4 Higher-order theories of consciousness and the theory of mind
Many theories of consciousness aPempt to explain the phenomenon by invoking some higherlevel system in the brain, be it a localised structure or a more general feature, whose purpose is not to perceive or process external sEmuli, but to perceive mental states themselves and act holisEcally with respect to the rest of the brain. This means that this part of the brain is in some sense ‘aware’ of the brain’s existence, since the brain provides it with its sEmuli, and this might lead to the sense of selfawareness that consEtutes a large part of consciousness. Notably, this
part of the brain might not be aware of itself, only the rest of the brain, which could explain why we ourselves do not see consciousness for what it is but instead view it as something ineffable, since we are not conscious of the very thing which causes consciousness to arise. Many theories of consciousness fall broadly into this category – take the part of the brain responsible for construcEng the aPenEon schema in AST, or the fleeEng memory of global workspace theory (Baars, Geld, and Kozma, 2021).
However, instead of proposing new mental constructs to explain consciousness, we might consider looking to neural systems that we are already familiar with, such as the part responsible for our ‘theory of mind’ – the understanding that other people have mental states like our own, and hence the knowledge that their beliefs, desires and thoughts can be different from our own. Our theory of mind, then, is responsible for construcEng and considering the mental states of others – so we might be tempted to ask if this process can be ‘turned inwards’ to construct higher order representaEons of our own thoughts (Ramachandran, 2009). While the idea of a mental process being ‘turned inwards’ is somewhat vague and unscienEfic, it is nonetheless a promising place to start – a]er all, we expect that essenEally all parts and processes of the brain that we take for granted today evolved via this sort of applicaEon of other parts of the brain to new tasks or sEmuli, with the eventual result that they evolved to fit t he mould that their new purpose demanded of them.
The possibility of ascribing consciousness to this system is aPracEve for a number of reasons, especially from our perspecEve in terms of what it has to say about the origins and the lowerlevel forms of consciousness. Firstly, the theory of mind is a well-documented phenomenon, and its presence seems to be strongly correlated with consciousness. There is evidence that the construcEon of non-insEnctual memories is reliant on the presence of consciousness (hence why we can’t remember Eme spent in unconscious sleep) (Hill, 2020), which is one of the reasons we are led to believe that children below the age of 2-4 are not yet fully conscious (Zelazo, 2004) –and the famous false-belief task has been used to demonstrate a lack of theory of mind in children under the age of 4 (Wimmer and Perner, 1983). CorrelaEon does not imply causaEon, but it makes the possibility of causaEon a worthwhile path of enquiry.
In addiEon, although the neurological basis of the theory of mind is mysterious, it is less so than consciousness. A growing body of research suggests that the theory of mind could be ascribed to mirror neurons – neurons that fire both when we perform an acEon and when we perceive someone else to be performing it – this idea is parEcularly prevalent among proponents of the simulaEon theory of empathy, which proposes that the theory of mind operates by us simulaEng the mental processes of others with our own minds (Gallese and Goldman, 1998). While there is nothing in the way of conclusive evidence as of yet, even a potenEal associaEon between phenomena on the scale of the brain and on the scale of individual neurons is rare, and far beyond the extent of any theories of consciousness, so a connecEon between consciousness and this bePer understood field seems like a promising path to follow.
Most importantly as far as we are concerned is that mirror neurons and the theory of mind provide a clear evoluEonary advantage. The applicaEons of a theory of mind to interacEons with others are vast – for example, in an antagonisEc scenario, our ability to understand the intenEons of others as disEnct from our own allows us to act in a way that serves our own best interests. However, the theory of mind is likely to be fundamental to collaboraEve acEvity as well, due to its posiEon as one of the foundaEons of ‘emoEonal intelligence’, since it is literally responsible for our understanding of other people’s emoEons as being separate from our own while also allowing us to understand them, draw parallels between them and our own and even experience them ourselves: empathy (Keysers, 2011). The evoluEonary advantages that are afforded to us by our empathy need hardly be stated given the huge role that social interacEon plays in the dominance of human beings.
However, despite the appeal of this explanaEon, it can only really address the problem of self, and not the problem of qualia. The theory of mind inherently operates exclusively with respect to the mind, and so it seems essenEally impossible to bundle awareness of external, non-mental experience into this approach. Those who hope to find a unified soluEon for both quesEons may be put off by this considerable limitaEon. Another issue is that this framework views consciousness as purely a side-effect of another important cogniEve process. All the advantages garnered by a theory of mind with respect to others are apparently non-existent when applied introspecEvely, so without further work this approach doesn’t convincingly explain why we would expect consciousness to endure, instead of our brains learning that no pracEcal advantage is to be gained by this supposedly accidental applicaEon.
There is also the interesEng quesEon of how this theory relates to those who have someEmes been hypothesised to have a somewhat reduced theory of mind, despite generally being believed to possess an equal level of consciousness – consider, for example, auEsEc people (Baron-Cohen, Leslie, and Frith, 1985). However, there is much lack of clarity both in whether or not there really is an absence of theory of mind in such individuals (Gernsbacher and Yergeau, 2019), and indeed even whether their level of consciousness is in fact comparable to that of neurotypical individuals (Yatziv and Jacobson, 2015). More conclusive evidence is needed on this apparent contradicEon before it can be taken as detrimental to this hypothesis.
5 Consciousness as a memory framework
The seemingly unfailing associaEon between periods of consciousness and periods of memory formaEon has already been menEoned, and this provides us with another potenEal evoluEonary advantage to consciousness: as a memory system (Budson, Richman, and Kensinger, 2022). Another key feature of consciousness that seems to encourage this interpretaEon is our capacity to retroacEvely have conscious experience of what was previously subconscious – in other words, the clear role that consciousness has in extremely short-term memory; the authors give the example of conscious awareness of the content of a sentence being achieved only when our name is called, a]er the sentence has been said in its enErety.
More convincing than even that, however, is the level of similarity between the conscious experience of a given moment in Eme and the experience of recalling that moment at a later date. It is convincingly postulated that the purpose of conscious experien ce is as a framework for thoughts and experiences to be memorized (ibid., p. 273) – in the sentence example, the content of the sentence lies in our unconscious short-term memory, where it will stay and be lost unless it is brought into consciousness and a memory is formed – and so the mechanisms for formaEon and recollecEon of memories have the same foundaEons, hence our experience of them as so similar.
This theory is very aPracEve in our context because it constructs a highly plausible associaEon between consciousness and the hugely evoluEonarily important process of memory. Furthermore, while there isn’t a huge amount of evidence available with respect to the status of animal memory systems compared to the human one, it is generally held that humans are superior in their capability to not only remember past events but process and consider them to plan for the future (Carruthers, 2014; Coolidge and Wynn, 2020) – and this sort of ‘applied memory’ is exactly what we would expect humans’ seemingly elevated level of consciousness to provide the means for.
On the other hand, it must be recognised that, while this theory does fit consciousness cleanly into the evoluEonary framework, it nonetheless leaves some quesEons unanswered. Why exactly is it that conscious experience is required for effecEve processing and development of memory? Could this system not be unconscious in the same way that, for example, our intuiEons and reflexes, which are also o]en built on past experience, are? Clearly this interpretaEon of
consciousness can only provide half of the soluEon – it fares well with respect to our evoluEonary focus, but perhaps not under some other spotlights.
6 Conclusion
Analysing theories of consciousness from the perspecEve of evoluEon is valuable because it provides novel insights which we can use to evaluate them, thus providing us with more evidence to narrow down the huge number of currently compeEng theories. In truth, however, what it really shows us is that no theories of consciousness are enErely complete – the aPenEon schema theory, for example, seems to suggest that consciousness is a prerequisite for any form of advanced coordinaEon, while approaches revolving around the theory of mind sEll struggle to explain the advantage of applying it to oneself, and indeed even provide a concrete meaning of what, neurologically, this actually involves. Another key takeaway is how important, from our perspecEve, the disEncEon between the problems of self and qualia comes to be – indeed, what we have explored could even suggest that the neural bases for these phenomena are totally unrelated, despite the close associaEon in which we typically hold them. Most of all, however, what this project has shown is the importance of considering the ‘why’, which has not historically been emphasized as much as the ‘how’, when it comes to evaluaEng theories of consciousness going forward.
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Jai Shah ECONOMICS
Jai Shah chose the “Active vs. Passive Fund” debate as his ERP focus because it is a key debate in investment management. He has used both theoretical arguments and historical analysis to draw his own conclusion to the debate. Jai is studying Maths, Further Maths, Physics and Computer Science at A Level and wants to pursue a degree in Finance at university.
Are passively managed funds better than actively managed funds for the long-term equity investor?
Abstract
This report uses both theoretical arguments and historical analysis to evaluate whether passively managed funds are better suited than actively managed funds for the long -term equity investor. It is important to note that t he report looks at the different styles of active management , how market conditions impact the success of each management style and employs data analysis techniques before drawing a conclusion.
I: Introduction
For many years, investors have debated between the two poles of management styles: ‘active management’ versus ‘passive management’ Those who have had success with passive management , such as John C. Bogle and Burton G. Malkiel, favour investing in index funds and going with the market. However, there are those who have had success with active management , such as Peter Lynch and Bill Ackman, who dare to use various different strategies to try to outperform the market and yield excess returns. Whilst there are clear success stories on either management style’s side, I intend to use both theoretical and empirical evidence in this paper to come to a conclusion as to which style yields more success for the long-term equity investor.
In order to compare the natures of passive management and active management, it is essential to have coherent definitions of key terms and outline the scope of this paper
A passive fund tracks a market index, multiple market indices, or a specific area of the market “seeking to own all the stocks in a given market index, in the proportion they are held in that index” (Hunt 2022). This is in contrast to an active fund which aims to outperform a benchmark to generate ‘alpha’ (abnormal rate of return compared to a specific benchmark, when adjusted for risk) through selective stock-picking (Pettit 2017, p4). Many active funds use indices as the basis for a replication strategy such as Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Russell, and MSCI. Active funds rely on fund managers to adjust the fund’s holdings in response to performance and the current market conditions and thus typically have higher fees than passive funds.
There are multiple definitions of a ‘long -term investor’, some attributing to ‘time -horizon’, affinity to ‘fundamental analysis’ as opposed to ‘technical analysis’, or even those with greater resilience or emotional control (Apogee 2020). A coherent definition of a long-term investor is that of Dr G Warren which establishes a long-term investor as “more to do with attitude or mindset, than holding period” with a tolerance for “near-term volatility or short-term underperformance” (Warren 2016). Therefore, daily and weekly fluctuations in fund performance will not be considered with too much weight, but instead there will be a focus on annual performance or longer timeframes.
Equity and bonds are arguably the two most commonly invested asset classes with little room for debate. An equity share gives the investor a share of a publicly listed company whereas bonds involve lending to a company or government for a set-rate of interest (Juma 2023). The focus on equity funds as opposed to bond funds in this paper is justified by how “the almost stochastic dominance (ASD) approach [in determining investor’s preference] unambiguously supports the popular practice of
advising a higher stock-to-bond ratio for longer investment horizons [disregarding pathologic preferences]” (Bali et al 2009, p14).
Passive management has distinguishing characteristics which can be advantageous for the long -term investor compared to active management. The five major characteristics that will be addressed are : (i) lower cost (ii) tax efficiency (iii) lower risk (iv ) diversification (v) use in efficient markets
A major characteristic of passive funds is their cheap cost compared to active funds leading to less erosion of an investor’s profits Passive funds tend to have management fees 0.07% of the total investment in the fund as opposed to active funds with fees on average ranging from around 0.65% to over 1% each year (Barclays 2024). There are multiple reasons for the higher cost of active funds, including increased portfolio turnover and thus increased brokerage fees which are passed onto the investor Moreover, the need for continuous research and analysis to identify investment opportunities requires skilled professionals, many resources, and complex trading strategies such as sector rotation or market timing which also increase costs for the firm. The lower costs of passive funds can be a reason as to why passive funds may be more attractive to a long -term investor as lower costs will enhance the overall net returns over the long term Forbes Council Member Jonathan Dash gives a good example of the impact of costs on an investor’s portfolio over a long-time horizon For a $200,000 portfolio with an investment return of 6.5% per annum over 30 years, a 3% annual fee would result in a $560,134 value after 30 years whereas a 1% annual fee would result in a $981,678 value which is 75% higher (Dash 2021)
The tax inefficiency of active funds (often unaccounted for) has also, through applying the First-In -First Out principle, led to “the proportion of short-term capital gains realized decreasing in a statistically significant manner” especially after the amendment of the Income Tax Assessment Act in 1999 (Fong et al. 2009) and so fund managers charge greater fees to account for this. Even if it is possible to consistently outperform the market, with the “huge list of marketable securities that must include a fair number that can be identified as undervalued”, the cost erosion of active funds mean that it is not worth the investor’s effort unless they can add around 5% before taxes (Graham 1973, p34).
The risk associated with passive funds is also much lower than active funds. This risk can be inherent in the portfolio composition, shown by how active funds with higher tracking error have more exposure to systematic risk, or related to the management of the portfolio with key-man risk: the dependency on certain individuals – in this case active fund managers – for the success of the portfolio. Notable examples of this include the movement of Glen Bickerstaff to TCW after his 47.5% return on his Transamerica Premier Equity Fund in 1997 (Zweig 2003, p245) or, although more to do with the bond market than equities market , the departure of William H. ‘Bond King’ Gross from Pimco to the smaller firm Janus in 2014 (Goldstein 2014). Indeed, such sudden departures are not uncommon and investors in active funds should bear this in mind when selecting funds The sudden change in style due to a change in manager is also likely to disadvantage an active fund.
Passive funds also provide broad market exposure offering increased diversification to mitigate against correlated price movements. This is because greater exposure decreases unsystematic risk, reducing the impact of specific companies or downturns on the fund’s overall performance. An active fund will not be able to offer the same level of diversification as a passive fund as the fund manager would struggle to have sufficient resources to be able to research a large number of stocks as constituents for their portfolio construction process, so passive funds are the best option for an investor requiring wide diversification to a market.
The efficient market hypothesis is a hypothesis that states that securities prices reflect all available information and hence consistent alpha generation is impossible (Downey 2023). According to this theory, stocks always trade at their fair value on exchanges, which makes it impossible for investors to purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices (Jones & Netter c1999). Proponents of this theory would invest in passive funds as they would believe that an active fund cannot gain any advantages in an efficient market. This is especially true in developed markets which are the most researched and thus supposedly the most efficient. However, the extent to which markets are efficient (especially strong and semi-strong efficiency) is limited and has been theoretically and empirically challenged by individuals’ violation of Von Neumann-Morgenstern rationality, evidence of investor sentiment, and more (Schleifer 2000).
III: Approaches to Active Management
In their 2009 paper “How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance ,” Cremers & Petajisto classify the different styles of active management across two dimensions : Active Share and Tracking Error, where:
Tracking Error = stdev(R fund R index )
��������������������,���� is the weight of stock ���� in the active fund
������������������������,���� is the weight of stock ���� in the index
�������������������� is the return of the active fund
������������������������ is the return of the index
���� is the number of positions in the portfolios (Cremers & Petajisto 2009)
In layman’s terms, Active Share is the proportion of the fund that takes active long or short positions whereas Tracking Error measures the time -series standard deviation of return on the active positions (Cremers & Petajisto 2009).
An illustration of the fund management styles across the two dimensions is shown below:
Fig 1. Active Management Matrix (Cremers & Petajisto 2009)
A majority of active funds do not fit clearly into each of the four categories, but instead are moderately active with a moderate amount of tracking error. In general, however, Active Share and Tracking Error show a positive correlation, as illustrated below:
Fig 2. Distribution of Mutual Funds across Active Share and Tracking -Error Ranges in 2009 N.B. U S all-equity mutual funds, Tracking-Error calculated by last 6 months (Petajisto 2013)
Closet Indexing involves managers mimicking most of the index, charging high fees without providing much additional value. This is evidenced by an R-Squared value that tends to increase over time. Given the high cost of this active management style and its similarity to a low-cost passively-managed fund, this form of active management will not be discussed further as it is clearly a suboptimal investment.
Factor Bets targets securities with “specific characteristics such as value, quality, momentum, size, and minimum volatility” to seek outperformance (Smart 2023) Advocates of Factor Bets argue that there is economic rationale behind the traits they look out for, and the importance of variables with “no special standing in asset-pricing theory ” such as book-to -market equity (value) and size, explain the cross-section of average returns e.g. on the NYSE (Fama et al. 1992).
Diversified Stock Picking involves taking large but diversified positions away from the index as opposed to Concentrated Stock Picking which also seeks for different factors for outperformance. Thus by having a high Active Share, they take overweight or underweight positions in certain securities. The two reasons active fund managers undergo stock picking are if they believe a sector is permanently undervalued or they believe their staff is able to select undervalued stocks in that sector better than any other (Elton et al. 2014).
IV: Theoretical Benefits favouring Active Management
Active management has distinguishing characteristics which can be advantageous for the long -term investor compared to passive management. The three major characteristics that will be addressed are : (i) potential for outperformance (ii) flexibility and downside protection (iii ) exploitation of market inefficiencies
Actively managed funds have demonstrated a potential for significant outperformance if the managers are significantly skilled. Two prominent examples are that of Peter Lynch and also the late James ‘Jim’ H. Simons, both of whom ran actively managed funds. Peter Lynch was appointed to manage the Magellan Fund at Fidelity Investments where he annualised a 29.2% return during his 13 years running the fund (Chen 2024) Peter Lynch’s view was that investors should research and invest in areas they know well rather than investing broadly, aligning with the Concentrated Stock Picking view. Jim Simons, on the other hand, founded Renaissance Technologies and ran its Medallion Fund. As a renowned mathematician, Simons used quantitative strategies and a black-box model that “finds individual patterns in data and exploits each pattern” to aggregate many small profits into a sizeable sum
(Nickolas 20 22) His firm’s fund achieved a 62% annualised return, before fees, and generated its highest return of 98.5% in the year 2000 (Maggiulli 2023) Nick Maggiulli, COO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, explains how $1 invested in the Medallion Fund from 1988 -2021 would have grown to almost $42,000 (net of fees) while $1 invested in the S&P 500 would have only grown to $40 over the same time period (Maggiulli 2023) Whilst many active funds do not generate significant alpha returns, these two examples demonstrate that a handful of well-managed active funds with well thought out strategies can generate outrageous returns, showing active management’s potential for outperformance
In addition to a potential for significant outperformance, active funds have increased flexibility as opposed to passive funds. Whilst passive funds are required to hold certain equities in certain weights to make sure tracking error is negligible, active funds can respond to changing market conditions and seek investment opportunities. This allows them to – in real-time – tilt towards undervalued securities and away from overvalued securities. Moreover, active managers can tailor their investments to their client’s risk tolerance and personal utility function. For example, a more conservative investor can use a manager who favours dividend-paying stocks as opposed to a more enterprising investor’s appeal for high-growth stocks. This flexibility is extended further in active management’s ability to offer downside protection. Whilst in bull markets passive funds will give an investor the upside, in bear markets they don’t use instruments to hedge against losses. On the other hand, strategies active managers use to minimise losses during bear markets are: dollar-cost-averaging, liquidating equity, or tilting towards defensive industries. These strategies cannot be achieved with passive funds hence leaving an investor vulnerable during market crashes or corrections.
The existence of market inefficiencies is demonstrated by the existence of anomalies, a situation whereby a performance of a stock or group of stocks deviate from the assumptions of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) ( Latif et al. 2011 ). There are three types of anomalies: calendar anomalies, fundamental anomalies and technical anomalies (Latif et al. 2011) Calendar anomalies are caused as a function of time period, appearing as a seasonality component in a time-series Some common examples are the ‘Weekend Effect’ where stock prices are likely to fall on Monday with a closing price less than the previous Friday, or the ‘January Effect’ where small -cap stocks generate larger returns in the first two weeks of January. A fundamental anomaly is one which includes a deviation in a security’s price from its underlying fundamentals. Some examples include the ‘Neglected Firm Effect’ where lesser-known companies tend to outperform similar better-known companies (suggesting they are undervalued contradicting EMH ) and the ‘Earnings Announcement Effect’ where stock prices may continue to adjust to earnings announcements weeks after the announcement (contradicting the instantaneous information incorporation posited by EMH) The success of technical analysis – the study of historical market data in generating returns – refutes weak form EMH’s theory (and hence the stronger forms’) that past prices and information are incorporated in a securities’ current price. Hence, active managers can use technical indicators such as ‘Moving Averages’ and strategies such as ‘Trading Range Break’ to generate returns (Latif et al. 2011). Passive funds do not have managers and analysts which research such anomalies to utilize, and therefore will never be able to profit from them. Equity active managers, on the other hand, use quantitative models to identify entry and exit points to leverage anomalies for their own gain, either via equities or their derivatives. Concentrated Stock Pickers would exploit anomalies in individual stocks to leverage mispricing, whereas Factor Bets would be able to systematically exploit anomalies across a range of securities in the aforementioned marketspecific factors.
V: Impact of Market Factors on Management Style
The theoretical arguments for Passive Management and Active Management have just been discussed but it is important to briefly take the different market conditions and types of investors into consideration. The factors that will be discussed here are: (i) development of markets (ii) establishment of companies (iii ) market sentiment (iv) investor’s scale.
Markets can be classified into developed markets and emerging markets. Developed markets are likely to favour a passive management approach due to the greater market efficiency making it harder to find mispriced securities. Emerging markets are more likely to have information asymmetry, structural inefficiencies, and market distortions, favouring active management which can profit from these inefficiencies
Companies are always listing themselves on the stock exchange to raise capital for corporate financing This has led to the gradual transition between older, more established companies, e.g. General Electric (GE), Coca-Cola (KO), and The Walt Disney Company (DIS), and newly established companies, e.g. Coinbase (COIN), Snapchat (SNAP), and Spotify Technologies (SPOT). The lack of historical data behind the new firms have led to them being invested in more actively and the converse is true for more established firms
In Bull Markets, the overall market is growing and the positive momentum leads to minimal need to outperform the benchmark which itself is generating high returns. However, in Bear Markets, active management allows investors to hedge against falling stock prices and tilt towards more resilient industries.
An institutional investor is a company or organization with employees who invest on behalf of others , allocating capital to reach investment goals it represents, whereas retail investors are individuals who invest their own money, typically on their own behalf (Palmer 2023 ). Institutional investors may favour either style, depending on their objectives. Retail investors – in theory – should favour passive management due to its cost-effectiveness and lack of barrier-to-entry but the rise of online brokers such as Robinhood have disrupted this trend. However, it is safe to say that most retail investors do prefer passive management styles as many invest without making investment management a full-time occupation (Graham 1973)
VI: Historical Analysis of Management Styles
Given financial economics is a very practical discipline, I have decided to use my own personal data analysis techniques to draw my own conclusions from raw Yahoo Finance financial data. The principles of Econometrics, as the “unification of all three [statistics, economic theory, and mathematics], ” has been used to come to a conclusion as demonstrated below (Hansen 2020):
(i) Construction of Proxy Portfolios
In order to compare the relative performance between passive and active funds, I have decided to create a proxy for each. As a proxy for passive funds, I have decided to use the S&P 500 given it is the most invested index fund with its broad market exposure of 500 US stocks (Folger 2024). As a proxy for active funds, I have created a portfolio of 9 stocks that have the greatest active share in the most common active portfolios, sourced from Interactive Investor and Hargreaves Lansdown This selection of stocks is listed in X: Appendix.
Fig 3 & 4 Visuals of the raw data analysed, from 01-01-2010 to 01 -01-2024, for the S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF) and 9 of the most actively held stock positions
The returns for each of the stocks in the active portfolio has been cumulated and averaged in order to compare it to the proxy passive fund. Stock weight optimisation and rebalancing has not taken place on the active portfolio and so the weights of the stocks in the portfolio are equal to avoid an unfair edge for the active portfolio. There are also numerous ways to optimise and rebalance portfolios, including Mean-Variance optimisation, Black-Litterman Model, and Risk Parity. Choosing an appropriate model would require additional research and analysis outside the scope of this report.
(ii) Correlation Tests & Conclusions
The decision has been made to perform PPMCC* tests of various market properties against the proxy portfolios to determine the correlation and relative performance.
*PPMCC stands for Pearson’s Product Motion Correlation Coefficient and is a statistical test for linear correlation
†The market representation is the S&P 500 due to its broad market exposure
The results have shown the following conclusions:
1. None of the metrics have a very strong positive or negative) correlation with the passive or active fund returns, where a strong PPMCC correlation is defined as |����| > 0 7 (Thomas 2023)
2. When the Market Price to Book Ratio is low, the passive portfolio has greater returns than the active portfolio. This can be explained as when valuations are low, there is no need to differentiate from the market and use resources to find the best stocks as the whole market can be bought for a good value. In the opposing case when valuations are high, it makes sense to be a stock picker.
3. Similarly, when the Market Earnings Yield is high, the passive portfolio has greater returns than the active portfolio. This can be explained as a high Market Earnings Yield implies companies in the market are profitable and so there is less of a need to use resources to identify the best stocks.
4. The final trend is that in times of a high Federal Reserve Rate, the cost of funding is higher creating difficult conditions for companies to operate in. This perhaps explains the higher returns in the active portfolio as a manager is rewarded for being pickier in what they buy.
Overall, these conclusions validate the idea that in Bull Markets , passive funds are preferable, and in Bear Markets active funds outperform as the effort taken to pick better stocks within a tough market can be compensated with higher returns
(iii) Financial Metrics & Conclusions
I have decided to analyse the financial metrics of Beta, R -Squared, and Sharpe Ratio to measure the sensitivity to market movements, proportion of movements tied to markets, and risk-adjusted return, respectively. These metrics can be used to justify the suitability of the proxy portfolios constructed, and the reliability of the conclusions drawn.
Beta: The lower Beta of the active portfolio compared to the market indicates the active portfolio has less volatility than the market. In practice, this would be exemplified further with portfolio manage rs making adjustments to tactically mitigate volatility.
R-Squared: The low R-Squared of the active portfolio shows that a high active share has been taken such that only 32% of price movements are correlated with the stock market.
Sharpe Ratio: The passive portfolio has a higher Sharpe Ratio compared to the active portfolio over a long time horizon. This suggests that the passive portfolio yields a greater return per unit ris k, on
average. However in absolute terms, both values of Sharpe Ratios are below 1 and are hence deemed poor with a low level of return per unit risk. According to CMC Markets, a Sharpe Ratio less than 1 is considered poorly, between 1 and 1.99 as adequate, and over 2 as a very good investment.
Given the above values are sensible, the proxy portfolios are good models for passive and active funds.
(iv) Limitations of my Analysis
Although I have tried my best to mitigate against limitations, as with any model, there are some limitations to my analysis. The limitations are outlined as follows:
1. The model is more representative of US markets as opposed to other markets due to the proxy passive portfolio mirroring the S&P 500 and due to how many stocks in the proxy active portfolio are US based.
2. Large-cap technology stocks take up the most market share in the S&P 500 , with the Magnificent 7 alone accounting for 30.47% of the portfolio. This suggests a large co-movement and that the S&P 500 itself is not as representative of the whole market as it should be.
3. Active managers in practice would optimise their portfolio and rebalance with changing market conditions. The model for the proxy active portfolio does not take this into consideration.
4. The cost of managing the active fund is not taken into account when calculating returns.
5. PPMCC has its own inherent limitations which would in turn limit my analysis:
a. Assumes linear relationships
b. Sensitive to outliers
6. The risk-free rate during Sharpe Ratio calculations is assumed to be 1%. In reality, the risk-free rate can vary over time depending usually on the 3 -month US T-Bill (Hayes 2024).
7. Only compares a single proxy for passive and a single proxy for active
With more time and computational resources, these limitations could be addressed leading to a more accurate analysis of the data
VII: Recent Trends in Investor Behaviour
Investors are seeing the benefits of passive management as EPFR (a subsidiary of Montagu Private Equity) has observed that “index funds have attracted almost $600 billion” whereas “traditional active funds have seen net outflows of $245 billion ” in 2023 Indeed, Morningstar have found that over the longer time-horizon of 10 years, “passive equity funds enjoyed inflows of $4.498 trillion” as opposed to “active equity funds having suffered cumulative outflows of $3.69 trillion . ” By assuming the masses have collective rationality, this trend is explained by the superiority of passive funds.
VIII: Concluding Thoughts
From evaluating the theoretical arguments and historical analysis of passive and active funds, this paper concludes that passive funds are superior to active funds for the long -term equity investor, if only a single investment style is permitted. In reality, a combination of the two with a core investment in passive index trackers and some satellite investments in emerging markets being the best choice for a long-term equity investor.
Whilst active management offers downside protection and a potential for outperformance, the widespread efficiency in many markets and the lower cost of passive funds contribute to its superiority. Moreover, as the data analysis has shown, whilst passive funds have greater volatility, they have a
greater risk-adjusted return and perform far stronger in bull markets than active funds Recent trends with the growing demand for passive funds amongst investors also reflects their perceived superiority
The conditions needed for active funds to beat passive funds are a bearish landscape for which the prevalence is low considering the long-term trend of growth in stock markets . Many companies have met and exceeded their quarterly expectations , and with prospects for rate cuts later this year, the economic landscape will be favourable for companies in the wider market so there will be less of a need to actively seek out investment opportunities
Markets are subject to change with new developments in global economies, geopolitical instability, and technological advancement. However, as of right now, the preference for a long term investor is to be invested in passive funds
IX: Reference List
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X: Appendix
The stocks that make up the proxy active portfolio are: Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), SAP SE (SAP), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), RELX Group (RELX), Unilever PLC (UL), Diageo PLC (DEO), Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ), and Nintendo ADR (NTDOY)
Below is the code I have scripted using Python and its Finance module yfinance in order to run correlation tests and examine financial metrics of my proxy portfolios A Jupyter Notebook environment has been used due to its efficiency for data analysi s I have chosen to use my own data analysis techniques in order to examine the relative performance of active and passive funds empirically, allowing me to draw my own conclusion from the research.
#!pip install yfinance import yfinance as yf import pandas as pd import numpy as np import statsmodels.api as sm import os
df = get_data(ticker_list[0], start_date, end_date, period) for i in range(1, len(ticker_list)): _ = get_data(ticker_list[i], start_date, end_date, period) df = pd.merge(df, , on='Date')
if percent:
df['average_return_%'] = (sum([df[col] - df[col].shift(1) for col in df.columns[0:]])) / ( sum([df[col].shift(1) for col in df.columns[0:]])) * 100 else:
df['average_return'] = (sum([df[col] - df[col].shift(1) for col in df.columns[0:]])) / (df.shape[1]) return df
# CORRELATION TESTS
def correlate_datasets(dataset_addresses, merge_para): datasets = [pd.read_csv(address) for address in dataset_addresses]
merged_df = datasets[0] for ds in datasets[1:]: merged_df = pd.merge(merged_df, ds, on=merge_para)
Emma Bernholt selected “To what extent is girls’ education key to economic development?” as the focus of her ERP due to her interest in equitable education, the four factors of production and macro-economics. Her project explored the importance of girls’ education, particularly in developing countries, highlighting the socio-economic and economic benefits for both individuals and nations. Emma is studying Economics, Maths and Art for A Level and wants to pursue Business Economics at university.
To what extent is girls' educa4on key to economic development?
Several elements are necessary for a country’s economic growth and development. The most important are what economists call the ‘four factors of produc;on’: land; labour; capital (finance and fixed capital); and, enterprise (or entrepreneurship). Also vital is the way in which a country uses those factors. For example, whether a country ensures that its popula;on is healthy and educated, makes efficient and sustainable use of its natural resources, and invests in infrastructure. The factors are all inter-related, and educa;ng girls is an important part of each factor of produc;on. This essay will evaluate the importance of educa;ng girls to the economic growth (e.g. output and GDP) and development (e.g. on the structure of an economy) of developing countries, and look at how educa;ng girls contributes to each of the four factors of produc;on.
UNICEF reports that ‘around the world, 129 million girls are out of school, including 32 million of primary school age, 30 million of lower-secondary school age, and 67 million of upper-secondary school age’. (1) If those 129 million girls were given an educa;on, what impact could that have on them and their countries’ economic growth and development? How large could this impact be?
Educated girls can make a significant addi;on to the labour force, increasing economic output and produc;vity, changing the balance of an economy from agriculture to industry, raising the status of women, and crea;ng a more equal and mobile society. We can see this in the examples from across the world below, which demonstrate the rela;onship between educa;on, economic development, and socio-economic development. However, to fully maximise the benefits of educa;ng girls, it is necessary to have a state provided system of healthcare, a high level of technological advances and fixed capital forma;on (investment) by firms, all of which enhance produc;vity.
Development and educa4on
A developed economy has been described as a country where na;onal income per head is enough to allow a high standard of living and finance a good quality state educa;on system. A developed economy generally has advanced technology, a highly educated and highly produc;ve work force, and sustained high economic growth.
The Human Development Index (HDI) is generally considered to be a good measure of the level of development of an economy. The Human Development Report (HDR) describes the HDI as ‘a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development …. the scores for the three HDI dimension indices are then aggregated into a composite index using geometric mean’. (2) The HDR website has summarised these key dimensions and indicators in the diagram to the right.
The HDI includes a ‘Knowledge’ dimension to measure “educa;on” within a country. Educa;on is where children are taught a curriculum in a school or college, learn informa;on and gain knowledge. The ‘Knowledge’ dimension of the HDI is determined by ‘mean of years of schooling for adults aged 25 years and more and expected years of schooling for children of school entering age’. (2) Therefore, ‘Knowledge’ has a big impact on the economic development of a country, as it gives human capital the founda;ons to create successful output.
Countries’ HDIs can be compared together on the HDR website. The graph opposite shows the HDIs for the United Kingdom (as a developed economy), the world, and Pakistan and Rwanda (both developing economies). What’s striking is Rwanda’s development since 1994, and how its HDI score has increased at such a fast rate compared to Pakistan’s and the UK’s over the same period. So what has driven this increase in Rwanda?
From April to July 1994, it is es;mated that over 800,000 Rwandans were murdered in just 100 days in a state-led genocide, and over 2 million people fled the country (History.com (3)). Following the genocide, the government of President Paul Kagame worked to change the country. One of its main ini;a;ves to develop the economy was to increase the size of the workforce, including by increasing the number of women in the workforce. Bloom D, E. et al, (September 2017) describes this change in an ar;cle for the IMF: ‘Women fill nearly two-thirds of the seats in Parliament, comprise 52.5 percent of secondary school pupils, and account for 54 percent of the workforce, with a salary gap between men and women that is the smallest in the world’. (4)
The increase in the HDI of Rwanda during this period demonstrates the effect that this increase in gender equality had on the development of the country.
As shown in the graph on the right (from World Bank Data), in 1994, Rwanda’s GDP per capita was 111.9 USD and GDP per capita was 966.20 USD in 2022, a 763.45% increase. (5) Although other factors have contributed to this large increase, including investment in agriculture; improving girls’ educa;on and the inclusion of women in the workforce had a significant impact in developing the country’s economy. Rwanda effec;vely became a more equal society with a rapidly growing economy.
The impact of educa4on – socio-economic and economic factors
What are the main socio-economic and economic impacts of educa;ng girls? In summary, as girls become more educated, they are more likely to marry later, have fewer children, live longer, and be more produc;ve in the workforce. In addi;on, they are likely to be in a different sector of the workforce, moving from low-skilled agriculture work into industry, at a level suited to their educa;on, perhaps ini;ally in tex;les.
Marriage and Parenthood
There is evidence that educa;ng girls reduces child marriage and early parenthood. Bourne (2014) states that ‘if all girls had secondary educa;on in sub-Saharan Africa and South and West Asia, child marriage would fall by 64%, from almost 2.9 million to just over 1 million’. (6) Therefore, fewer girls would girls become child brides, and instead would con;nue in educa;on and find a bemer paid job. Total income would then rise, causing consump;on to rise in accordance with the MPC (marginal propensity to consume), raising AD (aggregate demand) and ul;mately na;onal income.
There is also evidence that an increase in educa;on leads to a decrease in fer;lity. Kim, J. (May 2023) notes the difference between educated women and non-educated women. ‘Educated women are more physically capable of giving birth than uneducated women; but want fewer children.’ (7) There are three possible reasons for this impact. Firstl y, their educa;on introduces them to contracep;on. Secondly, it allows them to deduce that fewer children raise the family’s standard of living. Thirdly, higher wages make it possible for parents to save for their old age instead of relying on many adult children to support them.
Therefore, educa;ng girls leads to a fall in the birth rate of a developing country. This increases the economic development of a country, as the na;onal income per head will be higher than if uneducated girls get married early, become pregnant and give birth to large numbers of children. This should also decrease the overall chance of poverty, as there is a steadier income and fewer mouths to feed, resul;ng in a higher standard of living. This also avoids overpopula;on, as with fewer parents having large numbers of children a country’s popula;on grows at a steadier rate.
Lower Mortality Rates
Inves;ng in girls’ educa;on also lowers the mortality rates of developing countries. When girls receive a bemer educa;on, the maternal mortality rate falls. UNESCO (2013) reports that educated women suffer fewer complicated, dangerous and fatal pregnancies. This is due to bemer nutri;on and hygiene techniques, and employing healthcare professionals. UNESCO explains that if all women globally had a primary educa;on, there would be a ‘66% reduc;on of mother’s dying in childbirth’. (8) A lower mortality rate for mothers means that children have two parents rather than one. This also means that they are less likely to spend their early years in poverty, meaning they are healthier and have a good chance of absorbing the language and social skills needed to flourish in their early school days, and so to succeed in life.
Educa;on certainly leads to a reduc;on in child deaths. UNESCO (2013) reports that if all women had a primary educa;on, there would be ‘15%’ fewer child deaths. To follow on from this, if all women had a secondary educa;on, there would be a ‘49%’ reduc;on in child deaths, saving 3 million lives worldwide. (8) Therefore, educa;ng girls can have a significant effect on mortality rates in developing countries, as it raises the average age of death and, ul;mately, increases the number of people in the workforce. However, mortality rates also depend on the availability of healthcare and the sanitary levels in homes.
Furthermore, educa;ng girls leads to bemer health of children in developing countries. This is because mothers are bemer informed about diseases, ways to prevent their children from becoming ill, and how to have them treated when they are ill. UNESCO (2013) states that educa;ng all mothers would lead to a reduc;on in infant diarrhoea and there is an ‘8%’ reduc;on of infant diarrhoea if it was primary level and ‘30%’ if all mothers had secondary educa;on. Bemer educated women would recognise the need to provide clean water, know how to take good care of their children, and not hesitate to call in healthcare professionals if their child does get diarrhoea. Furthermore, regarding malaria, the paper highlights how in areas of high transmission the odds of an educated mother’s child carrying malaria parasites is reduced by ‘22%’, the odds reducing further to ‘36%’ if the educa;on is secondary level. Addi;onally, the paper demonstrates how there would be a ‘10%’
increase in DTP3 (an immunisa;on for diphtheria, tetanus, toxoid and pertussis) if all mothers were primary educated and a significant increase of ‘43%’ if all mothers were secondary educated. (8)
Girls’ educa;on can also lead to a reduc;on in malnutri;on in developing countries. UNESCO (2013) reports that if all girls had primary educa;on there would be a ‘4%’ reduc;on in stun;ng and if all girls’ had secondary educa;on there would be a 26% reduc;on in stun;ng. (8) In other words, this shows another way in which educa;ng girls ensures that children and, ul;mately, adult workers are healthier and stronger, contribu;ng to economic growth and development, in which the cost of trea;ng basic ill-health might fall, freeing money for more complex and sophis;cated care.
Increased Produc4vity - Labour Force Par4cipa4on
The World Bank defines the labour force par;cipa;on rate as ‘the propor;on of the popula;on aged 15 and older that is economically ac;ve: all people who supply labour for the produc;on of goods and services during a specified period’. (9)
The World Bank (2023) reported that in Pakistan (a developing country) the female labour force par;cipa;on rate was 24%. In Rwanda it was 55%, which is similar to the UK, a developed country, at 58%. (10) These sta;s;cs show the posi;ve impact that educa;ng girls can have on the labour force, which is then a factor contribu;ng to the economic development of a country.
Girls who stay in educa;on for longer are more likely to be employed in higher level jobs with greater wages. Over ;me, this applies to more girls, and women already in employment move up the employment ladder, the cumula;ve effect raising their earnings, consump;on expenditure, AD and GDP, promo;ng growth and development. Es;mates vary, but it has been suggested (Kakkar, G. et al (2017)) that GDP per head for women can increase by 15% and for men by 11%. (11) Highligh;ng the importance of educa;on on total output of a country.
Another important benefit of girls’ educa;on is that it can provide food security for a developing country. The World Bank (2014) said that ‘If women worldwide had the same access to produc;ve resources as men, they could increase yields on their farms by 20–30% and raise total agricultural output by 2.5–4%. (12) Many children and adults would be freed from hunger and the risk of famine, being more capable of benefi;ng from educa;on, and healthier workers, increasing output and GDP, possibly supplying a surplus of food to export and earn foreign currency needed for essen;al imports and for investment in infrastructure.
Future genera4ons
There is therefore evidence that an increase in girls’ educa;on can ensure not only bemer educated mothers (with bemer health for their children, less child illness, and bemer educated male and female children) but also, when they are adult workers, a rapidly growing and, ul;mately, a more developed country. However, it will be no;ced that much of UNESCO’s work uses phrases such as “if all girls had” a specific level of educa;on and “if all women had” specific knowledge of healthcare, whereas in many countries, par;cularly in Africa, there is no state-provided system of educa;on or healthcare. In addi;on, it is unlikely that some African countries will provide them in the short term because they suffer from “poor governance” including corrup;on and civil war, in which violence is ooen used against girls and women. Even if more girls were educated, some families would s;ll not be able to afford to pay fees for healthcare and therefore the “knock-on” effects of educa;on on child health would be limited.
Even in Rwanda, the educa;on system suffers from some problems. Since 2012, the government has provided all children with primary and secondary educa;on to the age of sixteen, but rates of comple;on are low. UNICEF’s recent research shows that the secondary school drop-out rate for girls is about 10.5% and for boys about 10.1%. (13) In theory, educa;on is free, but parents are expected to contribute to the cost of equipment and there is a large fee-paying sector, out of reach to the poor. Only 8% of the 18- to 21-year-old cohort receives ter;ary educa;on at the Na;onal University
(13), limi;ng entry to high-earning occupa;ons in the growing service sector of the economy, usually a source of employment for women. In 2024 the service factor was reported as 47% of GDP by NISR for the fourth quarter of 2023. (14) Although the government spends 7% of GDP on health care, there is a chronic shortage of doctors and nurses, and maternal mortality is high. Clearly, Rwanda should make educa;on fully compulsory to 16 (which would reduce child marriage), make it more affordable, and provide improved health care if it wants its people, par;cularly its girls and women, to benefit from the increased employment and income that such improvements could bring.
Girls’ educa;on can also have health benefits for future genera;ons. Protec;on from disease, increased food security, falling mortality rates, and prosperous families, all lead to the next genera;on being properly fed and educated, with the possibility that more women will join the labour force, so that it contains a higher propor;on of women and of the popula;on of working age, half of which are women. The labour force is larger and of higher quality, with obvious future implica;ons for AD and GDP.
The impact on the Four Forces of Produc4on
Girls’ educa;on plays a fundamental role in all four factors of produc;on and is therefore essen;al for economic development. As highlighted above, girls being educated can lead to a higher par;cipa;on in the workforce or a higher quality of work. This can lead to increased levels of economic development and have a mul;plying effect for genera;ons. This can be seen by looking at each of the four factors.
Labour is needed to produce goods and services in an economy. Even if just primary educa;on for girls is increased, this can lead to a higher quality workforce and a posi;ve impact on the economic development of a country. This therefore shows the importance of equalising gender educa;on rights in developing countries.
When girls are educated, this is an investment in human capital and increases the long-term produc;vity of the girls when they enter the labour market. Harris, D. N. et al (2004) explore microeconomic and macroeconomic evidence of the effect of educa;on. This starts with studying different research projects about the effect of ‘returns to educa;on’, that is regarding educa;on as an investment which has a rate of return (for example, the effect of an extra year of schooling on wages to show the effect of educa;on on human capital). This research shows that increasing the years that children spend in educa;on has a posi;ve impact. ‘Educa;on does indeed affect worker produc;vity and therefore the economy’. (15) This means that when developing countrie s provide girls with educa;on, they invest in the girls’ basic life skills, literacy and numeracy. This provides the founda;ons for higher educa;on and raises girls’ produc;vity in the longer term.
The Journal shows that an educated individual’s higher produc;vity can raise surrounding people’s produc;vity, further raising output. Furthermore, the Journal cites the findings of Krueger et al (2001) that ‘educa;on was sta;s;cally significantly and posi;vely associated with subsequent growth only for countries with the lowest level of educa;on’ ). This suggests that the ‘return to educa;on’ is most useful at the lowest level of a country’s economic growth and that, as levels increase, educa;on becomes less useful. Therefore, the Journal shows the impact of educa;on on produc;vity within the workforce in developing countries’ economies. (16)
This can be especially evidenced in land industries such as farming. Educated women are more likely to study farming techniques to ensure that the land is u;lised, managed and sustained for future genera;ons leading to increased crop yields and produc;vity. According to the 2023 FAO status of women in agrifood-systems report ‘Closing the gender gap in farm produc;vity and the wage gap in agrifood-system employment would increase global gross domes;c product by 1 percent (or nearly USD 1 trillion). This would reduce global food insecurity by about 2 percentage points, reducing the
number of food-insecure people by 45 million.’ (17) This can only be done by inves;ng in girl’s educa;on.
Furthermore, female educa;on can also have entrepreneurial benefits. As, eventually, women move into higher educa;on, then professions and business, they can develop new products and markets, ini;ally ooen connected with women’s tradi;onal domes;c roles, such as household goods, clothing and tex;les, leading to further economic development, if they can persist and resist opposi;on from the male elites who ooen dominate the misogynist culture of many developing economies.
Barriers and Resistance
Across the world, girls’ educa;on faces significant barriers, including cultural norms, customs, tradi;ons, poverty and inadequate infrastructure.
In a few countries, girls’ access to educa;on is reducing. Right now, in June 2024, the Taleban are blocking girls in Afghanistan from having an educa;on, taking away an important human right and reducing the country’s chance of economic growth and development. This is not only an injus;ce, but also creates other issues, including a healthcare problem as female healthcare professionals will not exist in the future if girls cannot be educated, meaning many women will be untreated.
In Iran, the produc;on of oil and natural gas contributes largely to their GDP. However, the rate of growth for Iran’s economy is slowing and the country is not developing. Since the 1979 revolu;on, many of its resources have been devoted to weaponry, it has fought wars, and been weakened by sanc;ons. However, a major influence has been the religiously conserva;ve leadership’s restric;ons on educa;on. Currently, girls and boys have different types of educa;on, to achieve different aims. There is a focus on training girls to become the ideal ci;zen in a religious society, being taught how to be good wives and mothers rather than to have careers, according to Bhat (2019). (18) This gender discrimina;on will, ul;mately, reduce the size and quality of the labour force.
In Saudi Arabia, government policy towards girls and women is based on Wahhabi ideas, with many women denied the opportuni;es available to men. For example, women were authorised to drive only in June 2023. If that change leads to the emancipa;on of educated women, and they are allowed to take a full part in the economy, the addi;on to the labour force could contribute to Saudi Arabia’s economic growth. In addi;on, it could help the government with its plan to diversify from its current dependence on oil and natural gas, into tourism and high-tech industry. In other words, to shio the balance of the economy a limle from primary produc;on to the ter;ary sector. Mekay (2023) (19) argues that Saudi Arabia will gain an extra output of $90 billion by 2030 if giving women the freedom to drive leads to a higher par;cipa;on in the workforce. However, if authorizing women to drive is tokenism, intended to improve Saudi Arabia’s reputa;on, and leads to no further changes, that poten;al economic development will not be realized.
Conclusion
To conclude, girls’ educa;on has been proven to have a beneficial impact on economic growth and development, as well as to society in general. If countries want to encourage economic development, educa;ng girls has a huge impact on increasing the quan;ty and quality of the four factors of produc;on, which is the key to economic growth. Not only that, extending human rights to women can ul;mately, lead to more gender equal, liberal and tolerant socie;es.
Across the world, there is a balance, with some countries making progress with girls’ educa;on, while others are moving backwards to old historical viewpoints. That retrogression is unfortunate because the evidence shows that educa;ng girls benefits not just them but also everyone in their country and will have an impact to future genera;ons. That is why governments should support the educa;on of girls with other policies. It cannot be achieved without government spending and investment - teachers need to be trained, equipment needs to be made and bought, and
infrastructure needs to be built. However, this requires high levels of current spending that governments may be reluctant to make because the results are long term. Furthermore, if such spending occurred it should be supported by investment in good healthcare to allow bemer educated male and female children to live long and healthy lives to fully contribute to economic growth and development in the future.
References
(1) UNICEF- Girls Educa;on. Found at hmps://www.unicef.org/educa;on/girls-educa;on
(2) HDR- Human Development Index defini;on. Website. Found at hmps://hdr.undp.org/datacenter/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI
(3) History.com. May 2023. Rwanda genocide facts. Found at hmps://www.history.com/topics/africa/rwandan-genocide
(4) Bloom,D, E., Kuhn,M, . And Premner, K. September 2017. Invest in Women and Prosper. Finance & Development, Vol. 54, No.3. Found at hmps://www.imf.org/external/pubs/o/fandd/2017/09/bloom.htm#author
(5) World Bank Data. GDP per Capita USD. Rwanda. Found at hmps://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?loca;ons=RW
(6) Bourne. J. March 2014. Why Educa;ng Girls Makes Economic Sense. Blog. Found at hmps://www.globalpartnership.org/blog/why-educa;ng-girls-makes-economic-sense
(7) Kim, J. May 2023. Female educa;on and its impact on fer;lity. IZA World of Labor 2023: 228, found at hmps://wol.iza.org/uploads/ar;cles/228/pdfs/female-educa;on-and-its-impact-onfer;lity.pdf pg1
(8) UNESCO. 2013. - Educa;on transforms lives-Found at hmps://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000223115
(9) World Bank. Labour force par;cipa;on rate defini;on. Found at hmps://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/world-developmentindicators/series/SL.TLF.CACT.ZS#:~:text=Labor%20force%20par;cipa;on%20rate%20is,services%20d uring%20a%20specified%20period
(10) World bank. Feb 2024. Pakistan, Rwanda & UK. Female Labour force par;cipa;on rates. Found at hmps://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS?loca;ons=PK-RW-GB
(11) Kakkar, S & Kakkar, G.. 2017. Significance of Female Educa;on in Economic Development. 2. 9. Journal. Found at hmps://www.researchgate.net/publica;on/343969089_Significance_of_Female_Educa;on_in_Eco nomic_Development
(12) World bank. March 2014. Levelling the Field: Improving Opportuni;es for Women Farmers in Africa. Publica;on. Found at: hmps://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publica;on/levelling-thefield-improving-opportuni;es-for-women-farmers-inafrica#:~:text=If%20women%20worldwide%20had%20the,output%20by%202.5%E2%80%934%251-
(13) UNICEF. Educa;on Budget Brief- Rwanda. 2022/23. Found at hmps://www.unicef.org/esa/media/11916/file/UNICEF_Rwanda_Educa;on_Brief_20222023.pdf page 5
(14) NISR. GDP Na;onal Accounts. Fourth Quarter 2023. Found at hmps://www.sta;s;cs.gov.rw/publica;on/gdp-na;onal-accounts-fourth-quarter-2023
(15) Harris, D. N., Handel, M. J., & Mishel, L.. 2004. Educa;on and the Economy Revisited: How Schools Mamer. Peabody Journal of Educa;on, 79(1), 36–63. Found at hmp://www.jstor.org/stable/1493063. Page 5 onwards
(16) Krueger A. B. & Lindahl M. December 2001. Educa;on for Growth: Why and For Whom?. Journal of Economic Literature Vol. XXXIX (December 2001) pp. 1101–1136. Found at hmp://www.kailchan.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Krueger-and-Lindahl-2001_Educa;on-forgrowth-why-and-for-whom.pdf page 30
(17) FAO. 2023. The status of women in agrifood systems – Overview. Report. Found at hmps://doi.org/10.4060/cc5060en page 29
(18) Bhat M. 2019. Women Educa;on in Iran aoer 1979. Conference research. Found at hmp://proceeding.conferenceworld.in/MCCIA%20PUNE%2019%20JUN/zz79dRVkP2028.pdf
(19) Mekay E. 2023. Saudi Arabia lios ban on driving for women aoer lengthy campaign. Ar;cle. Found at hmps://www.ibanet.org/ar;cle/c8d82237-545d-4fca-ad14-3e56add4734b
Maaz Yasser
ECONOMICS
Maaz Yasser chose economic development and civil rights as his ERP focus due to his interest in the intersection between economic growth and human rights. The project explores Qatar’s rapid transformation, evaluating its financial success with challenges in labour conditions and civil liberties. Maaz is studying Geography, Economics and Maths, and plans to pursue Economics at university.
Have economic development and civil rights posed a dilemma for Qatar?
Maaz Yasser
Qatar is a small country situated northwest of the Arabian Gulf, with an area of only 4467 square miles of mainly desert and a population of only 2.688 million. It therefore seems an unlikely source of rapid and successful economic growth.
In the global landscape, Qatar's transformation from an underdeveloped state to one of the wealthiest nations has been remarkable. Once dependent on pearl diving and fishing, this small Gulf country has experienced rapid growth over the past few decades. Its journey from poverty to prosperity is often celebrated as a triumph of vision and strategy by the Qatari royal family. However, beneath the success on the exterior lie many controversies that warrant closer examination.
To explore if countries aiming for development must choose between economic development and civil rights, we must define human rights. Perhaps to have freedom of speech and assembly, freedom of expression, to be free from arbitrary arrest, and to have a fa ir trial? Or perhaps the social rights to education, health care, and employment?
These definitions are relevant to Qatar in at least two ways. First, to develop rapidly, it has relied on a large migrant workforce, which it has been accused of exploiting and ignoring their social rights. Second, as Qatar’s economy has diversified, it has been accused of restricting freedom of expression and behaviour. These two issues will be examined and then put into perspective by comparing Qatar with the United Kingdom, which has a long tradition of civil and social rights and a recent one of largescale labour immigration.
Comparing these two contrasting models not only highlights the differing paths to economic growth but also raises profound ethical and moral dilemmas. Are civil rights compromised in the pursuit of economic prosperity, and if so, at what cost? Can a nation truly claim success when its wealth is built upon the toil of marginalised communities? How can Qatar reform its policies to find a balance between economic development and civil rights? These questions are posed not only within Qatar's borders but are posed globally as we grapple with the interplay between development, labour, and human rights.
Qatar's economic growth and immigration policies are closely linked. This project will first examine how Qatar has become a wealthy nation and then consider the ethical implications. It will also compare Qatar's situation to the dynamics at play in the Uni ted Kingdom. This exploration aims to uncover whether the Qatari royal family in the economic transformation has been the main reason for the lack of attention to the breaching of civil rights in Qatar.
In terms of economic theory, Qatar’s government has aimed to develop and diversify its economy, restructuring it to rely less on a few industries or sectors, notably oil and natural gas, by developing new ones. By doing so, it has increased Qatar’s GDP, th e total value of goods and services produced by and in a country in a specific period, usually a year, from 0.30 USD billion in 1970 to 236.26 USD billion in 2022.
One of the driving forces behind Qatar’s boost in GDP was the discovery of oil. Although oil was discovered in 1939, the country relied on fishing, pearling, and local trade, with one of the lowest GDP per capita in the world, meaning its population was one of the poorest in the world, until the oil price crisis of 1973, when the country’s ruling family decided to develop oil extraction and exports, using the earnings to develop the economy. Qatar is therefore an example of an autocratic, largely centrally controlled economy rather than a fully free-market capitalist one.
The article ‘The Development of Qatar over the past few decades’ confirms that in the ten years after 1970, revenue from oil exports allowed significant development in infrastructure and urban growth, notably in the capital city of Doha and on the coast. The article attributes this success to visionary economic leadership and astute diplomacy in the Arabian Gulf and beyond as Qatar aligned itself with the USA and the USA’s allies, including the UK.
The article explains that “the success of Qatar has called for its leadership to take critical decisions involving major risks.” For example, in recent years Qatar has gotten out of step with Saudi Arabia, generally regarded as the USA’s main ally in the Middle East, and some commentators consider that it is playing a dangerous role by joining Egypt to negotiate with Hamas and Israel over Gaza. The article pays tribute to Qatar’s ability to extract the full potential of the North Field oil reserves despite a lack of funding and a fluctuating world crude oil price ($39.68 in 2020, $68.17 in 2021, and $94.53 in 2023).
The article highlights how the discovery of oil has influenced Qatar’s people, stating that the standards of living have improved significantly due to the improvements in infrastructure within Qatar, which has been funded by oil and natural gas revenues, causing their GDP per head to grow from $2557 in 1970 to $66,836.17 in 2021.
Another pivotal factor in the transformation of Qatar’s economy has been natural gas. Holding 10% of the world’s reserves, Qatar has the 3rd largest natural gas reserve in the world. The article ‘The Growth of Qatar: From Pearls to PSI’ by Timilehin Adegba migbe and others explores Qatar’s emergence as a natural gas powerhouse producer and exporter since its first extraction in 1971. The article states that “by 2006, it had become the world’s largest LNG exporter, and by 2010, it surpassed oil as the largest share of the government’s revenues and the country’s GDP." This shows the importance of natural gas in Qatar’s economic transformation, in its GDP growth, and in its diversification, a crucial way of insulating the country from fluctuations in the world price of oil, and hence in improving its chances of economic stability.
Furthermore, the discovery of oil and natural gas has propelled a large increase in Qatar’s GDP. The article analyses Qatar’s change in GDP using this graph, transforming from one of the lowest in the
world to one of the highest rising from $2,755 in 1970, peaking at $85,000 in 2012, and falling to $50,000.
Qatar has also aimed to diversify its economy through expanding a variety of different industries. While their oil and natural gas reserves are sufficient for its economy in the near future, it is important to diversify its economy as oil and natural gas are finite resources and will be depleted; therefore, Qatar must have a spectrum of industries from which it receives income for the long term. Britannica states that the government has sought to diversify its economy through developing tourism. It has done this by promoting the country as a site for international conferences, though the industry remains a relatively small part of its economy. Additionally, Britannica states that the government has attempted to modernise the fighting and agricultural sectors by offering interest-free loans; however, these sectors only generate a tiny fraction of Qatar’s GDP. These factors suggest that the government has not been wholly successful in diversifying the economy as the oil and LNG industries dominate the main sources of income for the country.
The reason for Qatar’s success in transforming its economy has been due to the autocratic regime that runs it. Under the centralised authority of the Al Thani family, the country has made remarkable progress. The autocratic form of governance has fast-tracked decision-making, leading to exceptional growth. This is shown by its substantial change in GDP per capita figures: $27,494.77 in 2000 to $66,836.36 in 2020. Moreover, its royal family has been pivotal in the transformation of the country into a landscape with extensive infrastructure and modern architecture through investing in infrastructures such as the skyscrapers that define Doha’s skyline and world-class transportation hubs like the Hamad International Airport, which positions the nation as a global hub for commerce, finance, and tourism.
Qatar’s autocratic leadership led to political stability within the country, attracting significant foreign investment, with 29.78 billion dollars in FDI capital expenditure. Additionally, 135 FDI projects were recorded, creating 13,972 jobs in 2022. This substantial increase in capital has fuelled the construction of infrastructure projects such as the Hamad International Airport and the iconic skyline of Doha. In addition to its impressive economic growth, Qatar has also solidified its presence on the wor ld stage thanks to its tightly managed natural gas exports. These exports, which are largely under the control of the ruling family, constitute a substantial portion of the global LNG trade, giving the country significant economic strength.
The royal family’s autocratic governance has undoubtedly established it as a key player in global affairs, capable of hosting prestigious events such as the 2022 FIFA World Cup and effectively mediating conflicts in the region between Israel and Hamas, Ukraine, Lebanon, Sudan, Iran, and Afghanistan, aiming to portray a positive image of itself to the world as it aims to attract foreign investment.
Qatar’s rapid economic growth and increase in GDP per capita have had mixed impacts on stakeholders in Qatar. For Qatari citizens, an increase in income has significantly elevated their quality of life, with substantial investments in education, healthcare , and infrastructure. The government has used its booming economy to provide subsidised education, leading to improved literacy rates and ensuring that Qatar will have a skilled workforce in the future. Furthermore, the Qatari government has invested heavily in the healthcare industry, providing healthcare programs for citizens, contributing to a higher life expectancy. Moreover, the urban landscape of Qatar, particularly in its capital city, Doha, has modernised and seen significant improvements as its eco nomy has grown. This has allowed civilians in Qatar to experience the convenience of advanced public services and enhanced social security, creating an environment of prosperity and stability for its native population.
On the other hand, the migrant workers who form the backbone of Qatar’s labour force, particularly in the construction and service sectors, have not benefitted equally from this economic boom. While the discovery and exploitation of oil and liquified natural gas have been pivotal in the boom of Qatar’s economy, the country has largely been successful due to its large immigrant-based workforce, which performs menial and unskilled jobs. This means that the Qatari government and businesses in the private sector have aimed to minimise the cost of production while boosting productivity through exploiting cheap labour in pursuit of economic growth. As a result, many of these relatively uneducated immigrant workers from India, Nepal, and Pakistan have experienced b reaches of their rights. Many have been given exploitative contracts, paid low wages, and have inadequate living accommodations. Moreover, migrant workers are sometimes forced to work long hours in extreme heat, with limited access to healthcare.
As a result, many cases of ill-treatment of immigrant labour have been observed. Migrant workers can sometimes be forced to work in dangerous, life-threatening conditions, as shown by the 6,500 migrant workers from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal who died since Qatar was Qatar was awarded the World Cup in 2010. A video titled “What Happens to the Migrant Workers Who Built the World Cup?” posted by The New York Times interviews some of these migrant workers. From 2 minutes 50s onwards, the video interviews Ganga Bahadur Sunuwar. The man shares his experience working in Qatar, where he worked in a steel factory. He explained that the factory provided low -quality masks, which would not prevent dust from getting inside, causing him to develop occupationa l asthma. He requested medical leave seven times before he was allowed to return home because the staffing agency that hired him illegally held his passport. This case portrays how private businesses in Qatar use the kafala system (a set of laws and policies that delegate responsibility for migrant workers to employers, including control over their ability to enter, reside, work, and, in some cases, exit the host country) to exploit workers, emphasising the lack of security for migrant workers.
Additionally, the Nepalese ambassador to Qatar, Maya Kumari Sharma, described the emirate as an "open jail." This is due to Qatar’s significant lack of regulations on occupational safety, making it the third largest contributor to accidents resulting from work. Moreover, in August 2022, 60 migrant workers were arrested and deported for protesting the non-payment by their employer, Al Bandary International Group, a major construction and hospitality firm. Many of these protestors had immigrated from Nepal, Bangladesh, India, Egypt, and the Philippines for work and had not been paid for seven months. A report released by France 24 stated that the protesting group had been arrested for breaking the country’s public tranquillity regulations and that an even smaller minority of protestors were expelled by the courts for failing to stay law -abiding and peaceful. In response, Qatar’s labour ministry has claimed it will pay Al Bandary workers and will take further action against the company, which was already under investigation for failing to pay wages. Evidently, this displays the breach of civil rights due to pursuit of economic development. Businesses are adamant about minimising costs; however, in the process of doing so, workers are forced into unsafe conditions and sometimes not even paid, which is unfair.
Moreover, Qatari laws have received much speculation after the controversy over gay football players and armbands during World Cup matches. This controversy caused great speculation due to the large number of people watching the World Cup, attracting atten tion to the law regarding LGTBQ rights. A lack of LGBTQ rights has been displayed in Qatar through its controversial laws and regulations, where homosexuality is a crime punishable by death for Muslims, and controversial arrests of homosexuals: in 2016, King Luxy, a Saudi Instagram star, was arrested in Qatar on suspicion of being gay. He was held for two months before being released. The Qatari government though refuted that he had been picked purely because of his gay status, instead accusing him of commi tting other crimes like violating
a local’s privacy rights. With growing acceptance of LGBTQ rights, Qatar’s controversial laws have increasingly attracted criticism from the Western world. This could potentially tarnish the nation’s reputation and lead to boycotts of events hosted there, such as the partial boycott of the 2022 World Cup. While this boycott did not significantly affect the economy at the time, future boycotts of events hosted by Qatar could have more severe consequences in the future.
One of the laws that Qatar has in place is the regulation on alcohol. Alcohol is partially legal in Qatar, with some 5-star restaurants having permission to sell to non-Muslims. However, Muslims aren’t allowed to consume alcohol in Qatar; if they are caught, they face the risk of flogging or deportation, raising speculation about the lack of freedom in Qatar. Speculation has been raised about the Qatari government aiming to promote a pious image of its country through these alcohol bans. For example, The Pearl Island (a human-made island in Qatar) had been allowed to sell alcohol until recently; however, in 2011, restaurants in The Pearl Island were told to stop selling alcohol with no explanation, raising suspicions that Qatar was aiming to improve its repu tation in the Muslim world.
Another law that is deemed unhumanitarian is with regards to LGTBQ rights, dress code for women/men, and alcohol consumption. A lack of LGBTQ rights has been displayed in Qatar through its controversial laws and regulations, where homosexuality is a crime punishable by death for Muslims, and controversial arrests of homosexuals: in 2016, King Luxy, a Saudi Instagram star, was arrested in Qatar on suspicion of being gay. He was held for two months before being released. The Qatari government though refuted that he had been picked purely because of his gay status, instead accusing him of committing other crimes like violating a local’s privacy rights.
Moreover, female tourists are advised to avoid wearing leggings, miniskirts, sleeveless dresses, and shorts or tight clothing; men are advised against wearing only shorts and singlets. This can deter tourists from visiting Qatar, as they may feel threatened due to not being able to express themselves freely. As a result of the speculation around Qatar’s controversial laws, its government has partially restored the pious, respectable reputation it desired.
These laws, however, could hinder Qatar’s strides toward economic diversification as seen in Qatar Vision 2030 because promoting entertainment sectors such as football and attracting visitors could be problematic on account of how it is known for its negative stance on lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transsexual (LGBT) and restrictive rules concerning visitors. This has the potential to bring a bad image to Qatar, especially considering that the country’s objective is to minimise dependence on oil, which signifies a need for dealing with such matters in a way that ensures economic growth through diversification is successful.
Qatar has displayed signs of willingness to improve living conditions for migrant workers by taking action. For example, in February 2022, the African Regional Organisation of the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC-Africa) welcomed the recent announcement by the Qatar government to abolish exit permits for migrant workers. The ITUC showed appreciation to the Qatari government for their attempts to fulfil their pledge to the International Labour Organisation (ILO) to effectively revise their labour laws in accordance with ILO Conventions and other international laws.
The UK and Qatar are examples of two contrasting models in terms of governance (autocratic versus democratic) and immigration policies. The UK has a strict immigration policy with rigorous controls aimed at limiting the number of immigrants. This includes strict visa requirements, a comprehensive asylum process, and initiatives like the controversial scheme to deport illegal immigrants to Rwanda. The UK government has invested significant money into border control to prevent illegal immigration.
This has raised speculation as taxpayers want their money to be spent in a way that benefits them and the country rather than 'wasting' it on deporting illegal migrants. These policies reflect a broader strategy to protect national security, preserve jobs for native citizens, and manage public services efficiently. On the other hand, Qatar has adopted a more liberal approach to immigration, as most of its labour force is made up of migrant workers. This influx of foreign labour has been pivotal in Qatar's infrastructure development and economic diversification efforts, such as in preparation for global events like the 2022 FIFA World Cup. As a result, these two differing models have different outcomes. In the UK, the labour market is much more controlled due to its restrictive immigration policies. Legal immigrants who enter the UK are subject to the same labour laws and protection as native workers, which helps to prevent exploitation and ensures a more stable integration into the economy. However, these policies have also led to labour shortages, as 9.7% of businesses in the UK reported that they were experiencing a worker shortage, and they have also led to the government being criticised for being inhumane in the deportation and treatment of asylum seekers . While the UK's immigration policies are restrictive, they have legal boundaries in place to make sure legal migrants are protected and have fair treatment. The UK's approach to balancing economic development with civil rights involves significant emphasis on maintaining human rights standards and endorsing democratic values. Qatar, on the other hand, has been reliant on cheap, migrant labour, facilitating its economic growth but also leading to serious human rights issues. The kafala system has resulted in exploitation where workers work in poor conditions, don't receive pay, and are forced to work overtime. Despite recent attempts to improve labour conditions, such as the abolition of exit permits, many problems remain with the exploitation of migrant workers. The economic model in Qatar thus hinges on a balance where the benefits of economic development for Qatar are contrasted by the challenges faced by migrant workers.
To address the dilemmas posed by rapid economic development and civil rights issues, Qatar could consider implementing a few tweaks to its policies. These tweaks will create a more sustainable balance between maintaining rapid economic growth while ensurin g the protection of migrant workers’ rights. There are numerous areas where Qatar could reform its policies to achieve this. The following policies regard strengthening labour laws:
1. Reforming the Kafala System: While Qatar has made some attempts to better the Kafala system, further steps are required to prevent the exploitation of workers. Abolishing this system and replacing it with a contract-based employment system would increase workers' security, allowing them to change jobs and leave the country at their will.
2. Improve working conditions by implementing regulations on working hours and safety standards, especially in the primary sector. This would reduce work-related injuries and fatalities and make working conditions fairer.
3. Implementing a Wage Protection System: ensuring strict compliance with this would guarantee all workers to receive timely payments, limiting cases where workers are left unpaid for long periods of time.
The following policies involve improving social and legal protections:
1. Improving access to justice by setting up labour courts: establishing accessible legal recourse mechanisms for migrant workers. This would make it easier for migrant workers to report abuse and seek justice.
2. Social Support Services: providing social support services such as health care, counselling, and accommodation assistance would improve the well-being of migrant workers and assist with integrating them into Qatari society.
The following policies promote social inclusion and integration:
1. Cultural orientation schemes: implementing cultural orientation and integration schemes for Qatari citizens and migrant workers could lead to mutual respect, reducing any tensions in society.
2. Regular cultural events: encouraging community engagement involving both locals and migrants in cultural activities can lead to a more inclusive society.
The following policy regards international cooperation:
1. Increasing International Cooperation: engaging with international organisations such as the International Labour Organisation (ILO) for assessments would ensure human rights follow global standards, leading to a good reputation.
To conclude, the interplay between economic development and civil rights in Qatar presents a complicated dilemma. Qatar's rapid economic development has transformed itself from an underdeveloped nation to a global powerhouse, experiencing vast advances in its urban landscape. However, in pursuit of this economic growth, Qatar has faced significant civil rights challenges, particularly for its large migrant workforce. Through adopting a series of changes in policies, Qatar can strive to balance its economic ambitions with the protection and enhancement of civil rights and solve this dilemma. These changes, focused on strengthening labour laws, enhancing social protections, promoting inclusivity, and ensuring transparency, can lead to a more secure and fair society, similar to the UK. Ultimately, achieving this balance is not only a moral imperative but also essential for the long-term stability and global reputation of Qatar.
Reference list:
thepeninsulaqatar.com. (2017). The development of Qatar over the past few decades. [online] Available at: https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/16/11/2017/The -development-of-Qatar-overthe-past-few-decades
www.worldometers.info. (n.d.). Natural Gas Reserves by Country - Worldometer. [online] Available at: https://www.worldometers.info/gas/gas-reserves-by-country/ [Accessed 6 Feb. 2023].
Adegbamigbe, T., Biswas, A., Blaney, J. and Jagtap, A. (2022). The Growth of Qatar From Pearls to PSI. [online] TWA. Available at: https://jpt.spe.org/twa/the-growth-of-qatar-from-pearls-to-psi Britannica (2019). Qatar - Economy | Britannica. In: Encyclopædia Britannica. [online] Available at: https://www.britannica.com/place/Qatar/Economy [Accessed 11 Jan. 2023].
World Bank Open Data. (n.d.). World Bank Open Data. [online] Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=QA&year_high_desc=true [Accessed 7 Feb. 2024].
Wikipedia. (2024). Politics of Qatar. [online] Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Qatar#References [Accessed 9 May 2024].
Statista. (n.d.). UK worker shortages 2023. [online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1369207/uk -workershortage/#:~:text=As%20of%20October%202023%2C%20approximately
The (2022). What Happens to the Migrant Workers Who Built the World Cup? | NYT News. YouTube.
Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cr3d4Oi0Mas
Walk Free. (n.d.). Life under the kafala system. [online] Available at: https://www.walkfree.org/globalslavery-index/findings/spotlights/life-under-the-kafalasystem/#:~:text=The%20kafala%20system%20is%20a
Lanre Pratt HISTORY
In every book, archive and conversation I explored, one question became clear: does Nigeria work in its current form? I found it paradoxical; like every nation in Africa, it has ‘potential’ to be great and yet it is confined by its ‘corrupt politicians’. This was what appealed about doing an ERP on postcolonialism: whether it is the nations it studies or the theory itself, the question of postcolonialism is constantly misinterpreted. To many readers - myself included - we assume what will be discussed and what will be concluded; I found that this is not in our interest because in order to change the continent that symbolizes the future, we must confront its entangled past, as only then can we know what to change. The multi-faceted nature of my ERP supported my A-levels: History, Politics and Economics, it also helped me decide on doing History at university, igniting my interest for historical enquiry prompting questions as to whether there is a ‘correct’ use of sources.
‘No Longer at Ease’: The Legacy of Bri7sh Colonial Rule on Contemporary Nigeria and its Diaspora
Prologue
‘We return to our places, these Kingdoms, But no longer at ease here, in the old dispensa7on, With an alien people clutching their gods. I should be glad of another death.’
T.S. Elliot: ‘The Journey of the Magi’
To open his novella No Longer at Ease (1960), Nigerian author Chinua Achebe employs T.S Elliot’s excerpt. Elliot’s poem explores the complexity of the human condiDon, contemplaDng transformaDon and its emoDonal turmoil. Through Elliot, Achebe draws parallels to Nigeria and its diaspora. He suggests that within Nigerian society, poliDcs, social structure and people nothing is ‘at ease’. The irony of the book’s publicaDon in the year of Nigeria’s independence adds to the book’s poignance. In the act of publicaDon, Achebe foreshadows a new era. An era in which Nigerian’s will have to come to terms with the complicaDons of colonial rule.
Introduc7on
Hypothesis: This project argues that although some legacies have affected contemporary Nigeria more than others (hence, the conclusion), there is more nuance in that there is not a singular, definiDve legacy that has affected Nigeria the most. Instead, there is more of a combinaDon.
This project aims to evaluate three consequences of the BriDsh colonial legacy:
1. The Impact of Colonial EducaDon, Culture and Dissonance
2. Nigeria’s Post-Colonial Economy
3. Discordant PoliDcal Systems
By finding which is felt most acutely in the naDon’s present day, we establish a starDng point for Nigeria to target to harness its potenDal.
Evalua7ng Colonial Legacies
Does BriDsh colonial legacy directly correlate to the problems Nigerian society faces today, such as:
1. A ‘CorrupDon Complex’
2. SeparaDon and Inequality
3. A dysfuncDonal PoliDcal Economy – the inability for the state to effecDvely manage the unique needs of Nigeria
Thus, in evaluaDng how consequenDal a legacy is, such problems will be used as a criterion to determine how each legacy has affected contemporary Nigeria
Post-Colonial Nigeria
Zina Saro-Wiwa (2019) 'Table Manners'
Despite the irony of the term, ‘post-colonial’ characterises Achebe’s ‘new era.’ Since 1960, Nigerianpublished books, arDcles and art have provoked similar quesDons, parDcipaDng in a post-colonial discourse. However, in 2024, a[er 64 years of independence, as Nigeria seeming ly slips into another state of turbulence, never have such quesDons been more poignant. What is profound is that Nigerian people, society and its diaspora, so too are ‘No Longer at Ease’. Nigeria is arguably riddled with both visible turmoil and an intangible incoherence. It faces problems of a corrupt poliDcal economy that lacks control, as seen in 2024 union electricity strikes. It faces growing separaDsm seen in Boko Haram and various Biafran resurgences. It faces unstable social order seen in #EndSARS.
A problem of overpopulaDon and inequality encapsulated by the neighbourhood Makoko . These problems suggest that in its current form, Nigeria does not work. The naDon is a contradicDon. From an external perspecDve it has a strong collecDve idenDty as a naDon, and yet most ciDzens feel disconnected to the concept of being ‘Nigerian’, interpreDng this noDon as epithet. Today, to look at
Tobi Oshinnaike (2020) on Unsplash.com
Nigeria, one would do so with a presumpDon of a ‘corrupt’, chaoDc and dysfuncDonal system, see The Corrup7on Percep7on Index (Transparency.org 2023) below:
'CPI' Nigeria Transparency.Org (2023)
‘CPI’ Global, Transparency.Org (2023)
CorrupDon has become a term to describe what is wrong with Nigeria.
To define, it is a systemaDc problem in which ‘whole social systems are implicated’ (Clammer, 2012).
Where most analysis of corrupDon focuses on staDsDcs and records of corrupt acDons (seen in CPI
Global (above)), as (Decker et Bersselaar, 2011) suggest, in treaDng corrupDon as a problem, greater emphasis should be placed on actudes towards corrupDon, its posiDon in society and role as an
‘insDtuDon’. Such an emphasis derives the term ‘corrupDon complex’ treaDng corrupDon as a nuanced concept with an interlinked hold on society.
For example, when a statesman has bought voters to gain office, the impact of such an acDon isn’t limited to democraDc interests, but it has a more profound impact for lower society The acDons of that statesman set a precedent for the lower orders of society: ‘it is in this way that corrupDon as a way of life has become pervasive and popularised in the Nigerian polity.’ (Osoba, 1996).
It is not all bad; other interpretaDons would argue how staggering Nigeria’s success has been considering the insufficient resources and structure colonial powers made available in their departure. It is Africa’s most wealthy naDon with an exponenDal revenue potenDal of natural resources. The naDon has a wide diaspora and celebrated culture. By ‘2099, Lagos is on course to be the World’s Largest city.’ (Palin, 2022). It’s growing populaDon is fuelled by the fact that 65% of ciDzens are below the age of 25. However, despite such potenDal and progress, this argument fails to address the nature in which Nigeria has developed. A brutal civil war, an undiversified economy prone to mismanagement and riddled with inequality, and cultural tensions have yet to be sufficiently confronted. The impending crisis amongst all areas of society suggest that not only does colonial legacy have a fundamental grip over Nigeria, but it also suggests, that if this is not confronted the naDon’s development cannot be facilitated. There is now an onus on post-colonial Nigeria to come to terms with the nuanced problems of the colonial legacy and idenDfy which aspect of that legacy is the most significant cause of its current debilitaDon.
Legacy 1: The Impact of Colonial Educa7on, Culture and Dissonance
The impact of this legacy is that the use of colonial educaDon, in its context of paternalism, has created cultural dissonance among Nigerians and its diaspora. This has been aided by colonial educaDon’s role
For Emile Durkheim, in school ‘we feel part of something bigger’ connected through a powerful ‘social solidarity’ (Durkheim, 1933). It is largely through education that values and morals of society are shaped. Education contributes to culture and a nations ‘Zeitgeist’ (Herder) - the defining spirit or mood of a particular period of history as shown by the ideas and beliefs of the time.
For a colonial power, education serves as a means of assistance. This assistance is achieved through (1) asserting a paternal relationship with the colony; (2) enforcing assimilation and conformity to the wider colonial society and culture. In Nigeria the latter could be seen in ‘upper class citizens radically conforming to ‘classy’ British values.
Colonial education’s paternalistic feature aims to structure society to best fit domestic and colonial interests and any resistance by the colony is undermined by the fact that it is the colonizer that ‘knows best’. The implementation of education by the colonial power serves as a ‘moral duty’, a remedy to ‘lighten their darkness’ (Fanon, 1961). This suggests that from the offset, colonial ventures act in a relaDonship of paternalism where the colony exists not for itself but for its paternal figure. Andrews (2022) builds on Frantz Fanon’s claim from The Wretched of the Earth, arguing that ‘paternalism’ is something that will persist A ‘racial hierarchy, clearly coded and enforced with racial science, providing the pseudo-intellectual backing for’ colonial supremacy (Andrews, 2022) will not simply cease to exist, it engrains itself in the minds of Nigerians. The legacy of this relationship still exists today, both in a political and economic sense ‘but nowhere is this truer than in the education sector.’ (Viegi, 2016). Assimilation involves the colonised conforming to the pedagogy, institutions and values of the coloniser. This tears apart Durkheim’s argument, imposing an additional identity in which
6 in co-opDng an elite minority, adding to class separaDon. Colonial educaDon was a means for ‘jusDfying colonial supremacy’ as opposed to educaDonal funcDons (Andrews, 2022). This is consequenDal for Nigeria today as it alienates Nigerians from indigenous alternaDves, encouraging them to seek western means of educaDon to aiain ‘success’, undermining the apDtude of improved Nigerian systems today.
citizens aspire to conform. Whilst there is a benefit to Nigeria in accessing British education, it is ‘not exactly the bringing together of two diverse traditions’ (Tiwari, 2006) the context of paternalism, renders indigenous practices as ineffective. In the long term, there is a material destruction of faith in indigenous norms, manifesting in the institutions, industries and languages of the ‘liberated’ nation.
In Nigeria colonial education has been followed by ‘colonial optics’ (Erai, 2020) ‘Colonial education strips the colonized people away from their indigenous learning structures’ it not only imposes doubt and ‘annihilates people’s belief in their names, their languages’ (Thiong’o, 1981) but it also clouds any sense of a nation’s unity. Whether such unity is felt in the collective understanding of a nation’s heritage or in the case of Nigeria, the fables, proverbs and stories told by elders, the role of education in colonial history has created a ‘blurring that makes it difficult to differentiate between the new, enforced ideas of the colonizers and the formerly accepted native practices.’ (Southard, 2017).
Moreover, this is where colonial education entrenches its legacy: within the cultural fabric of a postcolonial society. One could go so far as to claim that in a colonial history, the role of colonial education has done more to shape recent society of a former colony than former educational practice In Nigeria, this is evidenced by the persistence of British institutions in Nigeria: the church, religious schools and Anglican forms of Christianity (in 2022, 48.1% of the population identified with Christianity), Pidgin English, a language spoken by 30 million Nigerians. Such institutions have value, but their influence becomes harmful when it begins to undermine native institutions. For example, in the Nigerian diaspora, parents are increasingly reluctant to teach their children their native language, as colonial legacy suggests it is not necessary in a western context. In this sense colonial institutions have devalued traditional Nigerian language and culture.
In bringing about a transfer of power, to perpetuate BriDsh control, Britain needed to employ a compliant and docile ‘anglophone, educated elite’. By targeDng and educaDng the offspring of aristocrats who would later inherit authority, Britain would effecDvely train such figures and extend their influence into the educaDon system. This is the noDon of Elite Co-opDon (Viegi, 2016). The BriDsh
educaDon strategy ‘tolerated rival educaDonal insDtuDons, and emphasised local village schools, naDve teachers and local vernacular languages’ which only confused and distorted culture further. Whilst BriDsh educaDonal policy wanted to emphasise village schooling and the ‘indigenous way of thinking’ (Viegi, 2016), this was only to be a starDng point to transiDon into the implementaDon of a BriDsh educaDonal pracDce. This made for a protracted, drawn-out and ineffecDve educaDonal pracDce. A cohesive and smooth transfer of power wasn’t achieved, instead, educaDon was a major factor in posiDoning the social elite. By doing this, colonial educaDon’s role is highly significant, in how it facilitates a large separaDon between classes and iniDaDng movement towards entrenched inequality.
There are detrimental consequences to such separaDon. Elites, growing in power based o n a dependency and worship of the BriDsh educaDonal pracDce, will go onto rule their naDons and instead of preaching for a balanced heritage in which indigenous pracDces are at least appreciated, such an elite will marginalise the significance of those indigenous origins. This plays a part in leaving the privileged elite disconnected not only from the masses, but also disco nnected from indigenous educaDonal pracDces and a faith in the capacity of those pracDces to educate. This disconnecDon could be seen in arDst Lemi Ghariokwu’s (2022) work Jaapa
Jaapa - the sudden growing urgency of young Nigerians DESPERATION for every opportunity to leave Nigeria for opportuniDes in the western world A similar theme is layered through Achebe’s African trilogy. Books such as No Longer at Ease where the ‘Umuofia fund’ are used for Obi Okonkwo’s scholarship to be educated in England; Things Fall Apart and the influence of Christian Missionaries. Both examples show there is a relationship in which if you are a Nigerian educated in the west, who has conformed to what the west consider ‘upper class’ (e.g mannerisms, etiquette and accent), only then are you considered upper class. Any form of domestic education cannot equivocate to being considered upper class.
The legacy of colonial education has:
1. Contributed to the corruption complex to some extent There is a major disparity over who Nigerians believe should make executive decisions. And so those who haven’t been as well educated are arguably more susceptible to corrupt means.
2. Impacted separation and inequality to a major extent This is seen in class especially, with colonial education co-opting an elite class that has become alienated in terms of culture, customs and status.
3. Contributed to a dysfunctional political economy to a quite a large extent. Paternalism and inferiority have had a legacy of deeming indigenous traditions and practices as inferior.
In comparison to other legacies, this cultural legacy persists in the minds of Nigerians. It is something more personal and therefore more difficult to change
Ghariokwu (2022) Jaapa: Migra7on Series I
Legacy 2: Nigeria’s Post-Colonial Economy.
The Nigerian economy has been hampered by the corruption complex This has led to an economy with major potential, stifled with inequality in which wealth flows to a highly concentrated minority.
Given the Scramble for Africa, as much as economic gain was considered, the colonisaDon of Nigeria was done with an arrogance. Nigeria was to be uDlized as an asset within empire. Nigerian exports would be used to facilitate BriDsh interests. Nigerian’s lacked sovereignty over their resources and in managing their economy they were incapable. This is the corrupt basis. Not only is the economic relaDonship exploitaDve but creates opDmal condiDons for corrupDon to occur in that a post-colonial Nigeria has limited experience in managing its unique economy
Furthermore, the relaDonship insDlled an ugly mode of capitalism onto a transiDoning agrarian society.
Ex-Tanzanian president Julius Nyerere claimed (1946):
“In pre-colonial Africa ‘Everybody was a worker’, ‘the African had never aspired to the possession of personal wealth for the purpose of dominaDng any of his fellows’ but then came the ‘wealthy and powerful foreign capitalists. And the African naturally started wanDng to be wealthy too.”
Delta Oil spill, Near Bayelsa, Nigeria. Photograph: Ed Kashi/Corbis 2011
The point being is not to say Nigeria, under independence wouldn’t have become capitalist, however, it suggests the way in which capitalism was asserted by Britain is a very damaging acDon. It imposed a vision of western capitalism, one of greed and maximisaDon, onto a society that had yet to transiDon. This is damaging, as it sets an unhealthy precedent to Nigerians for how to grow the economy. BriDsh colonisaDon failed to give license or any agency to Africans in forming their economic values. Instead, the maximisaDon of the BriDsh economy was the desired objecDve. This insDls the noDon of economic change being brought about by a desire for profits, rather than the natural, prudent evoluDon of Nigerian economy. This provides a basis for corrupDon to take effect as for example, instead of invesDng in the speed of transportaDon vehicles, to speed up the operaDon of transporDng goods across Nigerian regions, a firm will pay-off customs officers to minimize the inconvenience of permit checks or vehicle inspecDons at a regional border, all in order to minimize costs, increase efficiency and expand business interests in the long run. Not only is this detrimental for the ethical economy, but such acts cut corners. Instead of invesDng in capital to maximise long term efficiency, the firm will turn to the efficient outcome in the short run, seeking to maximise gains in the immediate future. The problem with this is that it neglects the development of innovaDon in the economy. Over Dme, the quality of capital decreases, and business interests run on a combinaDon of inefficient resources and corrupt pracDces. This perpetuates a negaDve cycle, creaDng an inverse relaDonship between the quality of capital and the frequency of corrupDon: with beier capital, a firm won’t need to resort to corrupt means, however the case in Nigeria is very much the opposite. The colonial legacy has basis for corrupDon is thus created in poor infrastructural condiDons.
The lack of investment isn’t the only reason for why post-colonial Nigeria has experienced poverty. Scholar Edwin G. Charle asks whether the resource fortune of Nigeria went to Nigerians. The marginalisaDon of Nigerian palm-kernel exports to Europe due to BriDsh WW1 interests, resulDng in a 64,000 export-decline from 1919-1921 suggests not. The aiempt to save BriDsh texDle producers and the subsequent restricDons on Nigerian imports of Japanese texDles in 1933 suggests not. Neither does BriDsh tolerance of unregulated, private, monopolisDc pracDces which dominated and disrupted
Nigerian commerce. The sovereign body of Parliament itself, uDlized the private trading corporaDon the Royal Niger Company which held a dominant posiDon in domesDc commerce. Parliament granted the company a Royal Charter in 1886 which ‘entrusted it with governmental authority complete with full military and police powers’ to ‘extend BriDsh poliDcal control in the area’. It was European businessmen that owned mines throughout the naDon, in which Nigerians were ‘excluded by the high capital requirements.’, the owners could reap the rewards as the mines produced profits of 46-52% from 1933-37. LegislaDon and internaDonal agreements looked to protect BriDsh and European interests as seen in the terms of the InternaDonal Tin Agreement. As Nigerians could not own mines, they received wealth (e.g derived from Tin industry) ‘not as receivers of dividends’ but as wages from highly compeDDve jobs to work the mines.
The legacy of Nigerians not owning Nigerian resources becomes problemaDc in considering the advent of oil. First discovered in 1956, in the country’s east region on the surface the discovery of oil and its
Photograph by Marc Rentschler (2018) on Unsplash.com
potenDal as an export should be to Nigeria’s benefit. And of course, oil is a significant benefit to the Nigerian economy. According to the Nigerian NaDonal Bureau of StaDsDcs the oil sector has accounted for an annual average of 8-10% of Nigerian GDP since 2018. Oil consDtutes the largest source of government revenue in Nigeria: The Nigerian Central Bank stated that oil accounted for approximately 55% of total government revenue and 90% of total export revenue as of 2021. This significance can drive job creaDon and investment in infrastructure. However, the problem lies in that with such a major contributor to the economy, the Nigerian economy has had to face extreme diversificaDon challenges and with the poor management of the economy in subsequent years of decolonisaDon, there arises the problem of who receives the profits of Nigerian oil. And as with the case of colonial Nigeria, it has not been Nigerians.
BriDsh decisions over Biafra to maximise their oil interests best captures this. The discovery of oil diluted the power from regional governments especially in the North and centralised it. Prior to 1958, there existed a revenue-sharing formula in which ‘royalDes from minerals belonged to the region of origin’ (Uche,), and this fell out with the BriDsh ConsDtuDonal Conference of 1957/58 which acDoned a Commission to produce a beier revenue sharing method. The result was that revenue would be shared through the ‘Distributable Pools Account (DPA), with the region of origin gecng 50%, the Federal government 20% and the other regions 30%. The theme of BriDsh acDon to regulate the Nigerian oil sector to distribute wealth evenly, but more importantly on BriDsh terms conDnues where Britain chose to advocate for ‘One-Nigeria’ and maximise the oil sector as opposed to the breakup of Nigeria by a successful Biafra and a compromised oil sector. In the heat of the war the Prime Minister had notes that stated: (Uche, 2003)
‘Our economic stake in Nigeria is of high importance... the facts are that Shell and BP have invested at least £250 million in Nigeria on which we now expect a large and increasing return of great importance to the BriDsh balance of payments. Other investments are worth up to £175 million. Our annual export
14 trade is about £90 million. 16,000 BriDsh subjects live in Nigeria. All this would be at risk if we abandoned our policy of support for the FederaDon diminished.’
And so, the reality exists that ‘BriDsh oil interests played a much more important role in the determinaDon of the BriDsh actude to the war than is usually conceded.’ (Uche, 2003). Britain was interested in protecDng the investments of mulD-naDonal corporaDon Shell-BP in Nigerian oil. Furthermore, in the midst of its domesDc oil shortalls caused by the Middle East Six Day War in 1967, Britain was concerned with keeping Nigerian oil flowing in order to miDgate shortage. Thus, supporDng a 'One Nigeria’ soluDon was considered its ‘safest bet’ (Uche, 2003) in order to achieve the above objecDves but this was at the cost of Biafra, humanitarian interests of Northern Nigerians and the naDons long-term economic equality. The outcome of ‘One-Nigeria’ and the destrucDon of Biafra led to an array of humanitarian disasters, poverty and chaos – perfect condiDons for long-term corrupDon. It is esDmated that 2 million people died as a result of blockades, famines and starvaDon during the Biafran War, it airacted global humanitarian aid with various relief agencies such as Red Cross and MSF having to provide assistance. UlDmately the brutal war le[ rife inequality next to regions rich with oil and so with rapid growth fuelled by oil, in such areas there is ripe potenDal for inequality and poverty similar to that experienced in post-Apartheid South Africa. This is exemplified by the fact that in 2022, Nigeria made sales $46bn in oil revenues, and yet, 87 million ciDzens live below the poverty line. Furthermore, oil has presented a problem of the mulDnaDonal corporaDons Shell and BP. This could be seen in the assassinaDon of Ken Saro Wiwa. The television producer campaigned against the environmental degradaDon caused by the operaDons of the mulDnaDonal oil company Shell in the Ogoniland region of the Niger Delta. In 1993 he led a peaceful uprising which incited a military crackdown leading to his hanging. This represented a problem for Nigeria in whether to address the damage of oil to specific regions or whether to crack down on corporate impunity which boosts the Nigerian economy. This quesDon persists today, and to facilitate its cramped populaDon, Nigerian governments has chosen the ‘corrupt’ laier.
Ken Saro-Wiwa, Jus7ceinfo.net
The point being made returns to the condiDons of corrupDon. In dire poverty, it is extremely difficult for ciDzens not to succumb to corrupt means; the same can be applied to the government reliant on oil exports and mulD-naDonal corporaDons.
The legacy of the colonial economic relaDonship has:
1. Contributed to a corrupDon complex to a major extent An economic relaDonship of paternalism has led to poor infrastructural condiDons which have incenDvized acts of corrupDon. This has facilitated an undiversified post-colonial development in which corrupt pracDces are an accepted norm of business operaDons.
2. Impacted inequality to a major extent, but not so much separaDon. Whilst the concentrated beneficiaries of oil have produced inequality, which is relaDve, there is sDll a majority of Nigerians in absolute poverty and a sense solidarity in that the majority of Nigerians have all been affected by dire infrastructural condiDons.
3. Contributed to a dysfuncDonal poliDcal economy to a large extent in that ineffecDve management and access of Nigerian resources such as oil, has prioriDsed exports over
Legacy 3: Discordant Poli7cal Systems
The impact of this legacy is that it has produced a dysfuncDonal, inconsistent Nigerian poliDcal system. This deems the Nigerian state suscepDble to ‘general corrupDon’ in which inept, corrupt means of decision-making have evolved into ‘insDtuDons.’
The workings and structure of Nigerian society has a hollow basis. As a result, the country lacks sufficient poliDcal infrastructure to implement laws, regulate party funding and manage regional tension. The slim, administraDve colonial state with liile public representaDon and no accountability was a ‘stark contrast to the representaDonal democraDc states deparDng colonial powers sought to install’. (Decker, 2011)
Pre-colonial Nigeria was a largely ‘prismaDc society’ (Riggs, 1964), in the process of ‘transiDoning from an agrarian, tradiDonal society towards an industrial one’ (Decker, 2011). This society could be characterised by a ‘system of general reciprocity’, in which administraDon operated on ‘social capital’, favours and informal personal networks. Thus, there is a more ‘ambiguous disDncDon’ between public and private funds. This is highly significant as with colonisaDon, an imported, western system of administraDon is imposed on top of the original informal system and expected to integrate. The result is a ‘syncreDc and composite’ (Decker, 2011) hybrid system of contradicDon. Under colonial rule, insDtuDons such as fiscal bodies, the judiciary and authoriDes were delegiDmized. Based on the informal Nigerian society, ciDzens would see tax as a short term soluDon, rather than a long term contribuDon to public funds; regarding the law, the problem is which law should be followed: whilst colonial authoriDes had laws over murder, they wouldn’t have had laws over ‘witchcra[’ something perDnent to Nigerian society; the choice between the ‘NaDve Courts’ and ‘District Commissioners’
16 appropriate allocaDon of profits for internal development. Its suscepDbility to mismanagement has made it an unairacDve investment for many foreign powers in most industries other than oil.
courts created a ‘pick and mix’ actude towards fighDng the judiciary. UlDmately this created an overtly complex and contradictory system which gave fruiDon to Nigerians resorDng to their own means to get things done. Hence, a general corrupDon.
In decolonisaDon, colonial powers sought to structure Nigeria federally with a more powerful north as opposed to the more resistant southern and western regions as this would lead to greater stability.
However, to bring this about, not only did colonial powers have to ‘poliDcise finances’ to promote the Northern People’s Congress, but it also created regional poliDcs which ‘polarized the two dominant southern regional parDes’ AG and NCNC. Such regions weren’t representaDve geographically as within each region there were mulDple ethnic groups.
Such a system is therefore largely responsible for the cause of the Biafran War, where an inadequate, contradictory Nigerian FederaDon which was unable to manage minority tensions throughout the 1940s and 50s, resulted in a marginalised Igbo populaDon who broke from the naDon in 1967. The consequence of the Biafran War was not limited to drasDc inequality. It polarized northern and southern communiDes. This is especially consequenDal considering the growing Biafran senDment in modern day Nigeria, in the form of Indigenous People of Biafra, the leader of which, Nnamdi Kano exclaimed “Biafra or blood, one will happen”. The example of Biafra can be applied elsewhere; the paiern persists: the legacy of the ‘composite’ colonial system sought to apply western poliDcs to a naDon with a fundamentally different set of interests as shown below.
1 – Nigerian Ethnic Groups, Olagunju and Alaverdyan, 2016
Figure 1 shows the extent of Nigeria’s diversity. Thus, it is impossible for a quasi-western poliDcal system to manage 371 ethnic groups. Furthermore, this system is largely responsible for the naDon’s main concern today: Boko Haram. In lumping together northern minoriDes as the ‘north region’, this makes for an ill-equipped devolved power, not being able to alleviate the pressures of Islamic insurgencies as effecDvely as if more power was shared within regions to consDtuencies.
Such a system is largely responsible for the prevalence of coups. The 5 coup d’etats from 1966-1999 have used corrupDon as a rhetorical weapon. The weak Nigerian system riddled with corrupDon allows specific ‘causes’ to infiltrate government. Coups have insDlled a paiern in Nigerian poliDcs which is visible today. Where military regimes of the late 20th century collapsed on opposiDon accusaDons of corrupDon and their pledges to fix it. Elected administraDons tend to fold, in which successors form their cabal based on the criDque of the problems of predecessor. Thus, even in gaining power, leading Nigerian poliDcians face staunch criDcism due to problems that are generally out of their control. The example of the Buhari administraDon, generally perceived as ‘unbothered’ ‘failure’ and ‘backward’ and
Figure
the man who characterises Nigerian regression reflects this. It is now up to President Tinubu to fix his predecessor’s mess. Despite Buhari’s incompetence, many issues he faced – soaring poverty and facDons of Boko Haram – have more deep-rooted causes. It is not in any Nigerian President’s capacity to be able to fully resolve specific issues within their term. Greater emphasis should be given to reforming the nature of poliDcs and the fundamental system.
The legacy of Discordant PoliDcal systems has:
1. Contributed to the corrupDon complex to a major extent. The clash of the colonial system with ‘prismaDc’ Nigerian society allowed corrupDon to evolve into a ubiquitous insDtuDon embodying the corrupDon complex.
2. Impacted inequality to some extent, but separaDsm to a major extent. Whilst most Nigerians have a similar poliDcal power, those with corporate links arguably have more and are able to express their grievances with beier results. The result of this ‘weak hybrid’ has been largely responsible for all of contemporary Nigeria’s minority tensions.
3. Contributed to a dysfuncDonal poliDcal economy to a large extent. The ability for the Nigerian state to resolve problems is incoherent. This will persist without a fundamental reform of the system.
Conclusion
To conclude, the project has illustrated that even a[er liberaDon, Nigeria has been riddled with the implicaDons of BriDsh colonial interference much of which is responsible for its problems today. It has also shown that such a legacy is mulD-faceted and has affected society differently. As to which facet of that legacy is felt most acutely in contemporary Nigeria, the project has reflected that there can’t be an empirical answer. The quesDon cannot be restricted to such a clear-cut choice, given the sequenDal and evoluDonary nature of post-colonial society. For example, whilst colonial educaDon contributed to class separaDon majorly, this does not mean that it is the sole cause of class separaDon in contemporary Nigeria. Other facets of the colonial legacy have had input in creaDng the present
situaDon. Therefore, the answer, must be formaied around which facet has been the most impactul. And hence the thesis, this project has found that given its fundamental stake in the machinery of society the legacy of discordant poliDcal systems has been most impactul. This was jusDfied in that despite the legacy of culture and colonial educaDon also being fundamental , it is through the poliDcal system that post-colonial reforms can be implemented and so without a sufficient poliDcal system , change cannot be implemented. Similarly, despite the significant legacy of economic relaDonship without a sufficiently structured poliDcal system, neither can economic management improve. Thus, the project has found that for Nigeria the poliDcal system proceeds all else in trying to fix society. For Nigerians and its diaspora therefore, there is now an onus to recognise their colonial history. In doing so, not only do ciDzens inform themselves of the roots of their problems, but they can also take back some autonomy, begin to connect with their culture and work to restructure society organically, in accordance with the naDon. Zena Saro-Wiwa’s work Table Manner’s (below) exemplifies this Nigerians can take back autonomy in preserving what works for them.
Zina Saro-Wiwa (2019) 'Table Manners'
Bibliography
Chinua Achebe (1960) No Longer at Ease Oxford: Heinemann Ltd
Daniel Egiegba Agbiboa (2012), Springer, Between Corruption and Development: The Political Economy of State Robbery in Nigeria, from Journal of Business Ethics, pp 325-45.
Dmitri van den Bersselaar & Stephanie Decker (2011) International Journal of Public Administration, ‘No Longer at Ease’: Corruption as an Institution in West Africa.
Edwin G. Charle Jr (1967), Wiley, English Colonial Policy and the Economy of Nigeria, pp 79-92.
John Clammer (2012), ANU Press, Corruption Development, Chaos and social Disorganisation: Sociological reflections on corruption and its social basis , pp113 -128.
Lemi Ghariokwu (2022) Jaapa: Migration Series [Acrylic on Canvas]
Melvin Goldberg (1986), Cambridge University Press, Decolonisation and Political Socialisation with Reference to West Africa, pp. 663-677.
Olakunle A. Lawal (2010), Historical Society of Nigeria, From Colonial Reforms to Decolonization: Britain and the Transfer of Power in Nigeria, 1947-1960, pp39-62.
Hazel M. McFerson (2009), Taylor and Francis, Governance and Hyper-Corruption in Resource-Rich African Countries, from Third World Quarterly, pp 1529-547.
Kehinde Olagunju and David Alerverdyan (2016) Multiculturalism as a socio-cultural component of the sustainable development in Nigeria', Studia Mundi - Economica 3(1) Available at: DOI:10.18531/Studia.Mundi.2016.03.01.108-117
Eghosa E. Osaghae (1998), The Journal of Modern African Studies, Managing Multiple Minority Problems in a Divided Society: The Nigerian Experience, pp 1 – 24.
S.O. Osoba (1996), Taylor & Francis Group, Corruption in Nigeria: Historical Perspectives, from A Review of African Political Economy, pp 371-86.
Marc Rentschler (2018) Shell, Waiblingen, Germany [Photograph] in Unsplash.com. Available here: https://unsplash.com/photos/low-angle-photography-of-shell-gas-station-at-night-F1rES0sVuIw <accessed June 2024>
Ken Saro-Wiwa [photograph] in Janet H. Anderson (2022) Justiceinfo.net https://www.justiceinfo.net/en/89238-unresolved-responsibility-big-oil-companies-nigeria.html <accessed June 2024>
Zina Saro-Wiwa (2019) Table Manners [Photography] Available here: https://www.zinasarowiwa.com/artworks/tablemanners <accessed June 2024>
Transparency International (2023) Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Available here: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023/index/nga <accessed June 2024)
Jonathan H. Turner (1990), Oxford University Press, Emile Durkheim’s Theory of Social Organization, pp.1089-1103
Chibuike Uche (2008), The Journal of African History, Oil, British Interests and the Nigerian Civil War, pp 111-135
UNITED NATIONS Office on Drugs and Crime (2019), Corruption in Nigeria: Pattern and Trends, pp 120
John Vidal (2011) Niger delta oil spills clean-up will take 30 years, says UN [Oil spill, Near Bayelsa, Nigeria. Photograph: Ed Kashi/Corbis]
Nicola Viegi (2016), Berghan Books, The Economics of Decolonisation: Institutions, Education and Elite Formation, pp 61-79.
Mikael Helbitz
HISTORY
Mikael Helbitz chose to explore the reluctance of the Jewish community to face the trauma of the Holocaust because of his interest in how the relationship between individuals and collective memory has shown itself in history. The project aims to situate the Jewish community’s trauma within a wider lens of community trauma whilst acknowledging and analysing how unique elements of the Holocaust altered Jewish post-war responses. Mikael studies History, English Literature and Maths and wants to read History at university.
Why was the Jewish community generally reluctant to face the trauma of the Holocaust straight a6er the Second World War?
The Holocaust, seen as one of the darkest chapters of human history, le7 millions of Jews with such trauma that even a life;me of healing could not reverse its effects. Despite this, there was seemingly a reluctance within the Jewish community to face this trauma straight a7er the end of the Second World War some Jewish families went many decades before discussing the events they had experienced. The reasons behind this reluctance have been researched by scholars of many different fields: in this essay, leading interpreta;ons that have prevailed from three disciplines (history, philosophy and theology) are being examined against each other. It is important to note that every individual’s experience was unique and so one Jewish individual’s reluctance to face their trauma may not have fully aligned with the reasons of another Jewish individual; however, throughout this essay, to assess which interpreta;on is the most convincing, I have aMempted to find the most prevalent paMerns amongst the post-war Jewish community.
The first interpreta;on belongs to Nathan Rotenstreich, a philosopher. He argues that the reluctance to face or recognise the trauma was due to “an inclina;on to be ac;ve and produc;ve”. Rotenstreich himself recognises that his argument is “[schema;c] ” (Rotenstreich, 1980, p. 43) ul;mately, his overly simplified historiography of Israel’s crea;on tarnishes the argument’s strength. The second interpreta;on, propounded by historian Mar;n Gilbert, convincingly argues that historical awareness and research are gradual developments and thus aMributes the reluctance to confront the trauma of the Holocaust to these reasons (Gilbert, 1984). Like Rotenstreich, Gilbert does not consider the religious response of observant Jews; however, Gilbert’s argument is far more well-rounded and is supported by an abundance of tangen;al evidence regarding reac;ons to other trauma. The last interpreta;on, put forward by religious scholar Gershom Scholem, is the only interpreta;on that directly links the reluctance to directly face the trauma to religion and the Holocaust’s theological implica;ons (Scholem, 1975). This comprises most of the argument’s u;lity beyond his unique angle, Scholem’s interpreta;on can be framed as narrow. He treats the reac;ons of Jews to the Holocaust as en;rely separate from any other community’s response to trauma;c events. Moreover, Scholem fails to convincingly highlight the interplay between an individual and their community not only does he marginalise the ac;ons of secular Jews, but he also only focuses on a very par;cular sec;on of the religious Jewish community. Overall, Gilbert provides the most convincing argument. Although each interpreta;on contains grains of truth regarding the general reluctance of the Jewish community to immediately face the trauma of the Holocaust, Gilbert’s interpreta;on is the only argument that could be aMributed to the responses of almost all Jews who did not confront their trauma a7er the Holocaust
Rotenstreich interprets the reluctancy of the Jewish community to directly face the trauma caused by the Holocaust post-WW2 as people’s desire “to live, and life is, by its very nature, future oriented” (Rotenstreich, 1980, p. 43). The philosopher divides this into two jus;fica;ons both marked by “[ac;ng} pragma;cally”: firstly, people were preven;ng themselves from “sinking into reminiscences which might eventually turn into unhealthy complexes” and secondly, people were focusing on “the establishment of a Jewish state… a7er World War II [which] pushed the centre of gravity from the past to the future”. (Rotenstreich, 1980, p. 43) The philosopher links these two responses, sugges;ng that focusing on the crea;on of Israel was a way for many to avoid reminiscing. There is some merit to this claim the increased focus on establishing the state of Israel is seen by the short dura;on between the end of the world war and the Israeli Declara;on of Independence, only three years later. Following this, Israel experienced its greatest increase in immigra;on to-date between 1948-51 when the popula;on more than doubled (Halamish, 2018). These two pieces of evidence suggest a concrete link between the end of the war and an increased urgency amongst the Jewish community to focus on establishing a Jewish state. However, correla;on does not mean causa;on another possible factor
behind the increasing immigra;on was the stark difference between pre -independence Bri;sh border control and post-independence Israeli border control. In the years when modern-day Israel had been part of the Bri;sh Mandate of Pales;ne pre-1948, the Bri;sh heavily restricted entry and immigra;on into the land. In comparison, the inaugural Israeli governments allowed far more immigra;on (par;cularly of Jewish people) This could be one of the driving factors behind the exponen;al increase in popula;on: Rotenstreich’s argument to explain the increased immigra;on numbers is not uncontested.
Moreover, when considering the humanitarian situa;ons of European Jews post-war, Rotenstreich’s sugges;on that the Jewish community shi7ed their aMen;ons from the Holocaust to Israel to not “[sink] into reminiscences” (Rotenstreich, 1980, p. 43) falls short of the mark. When European Jews were liberated from concentra;on camps, they found that they hadn’t returned to the pre-war Europe that they were familiar with. Many of their previous houses were destroyed or now inhabited by different people this was one of many reasons why Displaced Persons camps were set up in 1945. “More than 250,000 Jewish displaced persons lived in [these] camps” (United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, n.d.) this shows the sheer scale of change that European Jewry had to manage a7er the end of the war. For many, moving to Israel was a necessity to survive or locate family whose status was unknown. For these people, who were a significant minority, immigra;on had liMle to do with “being afraid of sinking into reminiscences” (Rotenstreich, 1980, p. 43). Many acted out of fear they no longer felt safe in Europe a7er the Holocaust and pre-war an;semi;sm (including pogroms). This arguably intensified the urgency for immigra;on to a Jewish state. This is heavily supported by the increase of tes;monies provided a7er the Nuremberg Trials. Before the trials, tes;monies were few and far between. Only a couple years a7er the end of the trials, Yad Vashem (Holocaust Remembrance Centre) was built and Yom HaShoah (Holocaust Memorial Day) was established. A7er the Eichmann Trial in 1961, tes;monies once again increased significantly and many Jewish survivors finally felt comfortable discussing their experiences of the Holocaust with family members. The correla;on between the trials and the increase in tes;monies helps to highlight how much fear played a part in the ac;ons of Jews a7er World War II it was certainly a contribu;ng factor behind immigra;on numbers to Israel. There may perhaps have been some who did move to Israel for similar reasons to those provided by Rotenstreich; however, the evidence suggests that it was not an overwhelming majority and Rotenstreich’s schema;c argumenta;on causes him to miss out on many nuances behind the early years of the State of Israel.
When considering the two facets of Rotenstreich’s argument separately rather than together, there is evidence that supports only aspects of his claim. Primo Levi’s failed aMempts to publish his Holocaust memoir ‘If This Is a Man’ in 1947 showed that some people wanted a “future-oriented” focus and did not want to “[sink] into reminiscences” (Rotenstreich, 1980, p. 43). However, in this case, it was nonJewish publishers who refused to pick up his work as they believed it was too early to detail such harrowing experiences (Sands, 2017). Another example of this was the hesitancy to write genocide into interna;onal law despite Polish lawyer Lemkin coining the term in 1944. It was only a7er the Nuremberg Trials that terms such as ‘Germanisa;on’ and ‘mass murder’ were replaced by genocide as a legal term. Both examples show aMempts to not “[sink] into reminiscences” (Rotenstreich, 1980, p. 43) from individuals of the interna;onal community rather than within the Jewish community. There were likely instances when Jewish individuals possessed this same mindset however, it is important to recognise the interplay between an individual and their community. Just as Levi being insistent that we should remember the past (the Holocaust) does not suggest that the en;re Jewish community wanted to talk about the events, the “future -oriented” (Rotenstreich, 1980, p. 43) focus of some Jews does not necessarily represent the ac;ons of the en;re Jewish community. In fact, there isn’t sufficient evidence to suggest that it represents the beliefs of a significant minority. Once again, Rotenstreich’s interpreta;on suffers from the same weakness he ignores the nuances of certain situa;ons and generalises the responses of the Jewish community. Rotenstreich, too, makes the same
mistake in assuming that all Jews supported the crea;on of Israel. Although in this case, Rotenstreich does represent the perspec;ve of most of the Jewish community, it can be argued that this is s;ll a major oversight. Similarly, Rotenstreich fails to consider the religious aspects of the Jewish reluctance to face the trauma of the Holocaust post-war.
Overall, Rotenstreich’s argument is limited. His argument suffers from generalisa;on, especially in his reasoning for Jewish immigra;on to Israel and his occasional transferring of the mindset of a few individuals to the en;re Jewish community. There is merit to his interpreta;on he does incorporate many aspects that are involved in the seeming lack of confronta;on of trauma by the Jewish community a7er the end of WWII. However, he is unsuccessful in coherently plac ing these aspects together. This means that he erases lots of the nuance of the situa;on and provides a narrow argument.
Historian Mar;n Gilbert provides a far more holis;c view behind the seeming reluctance to face their trauma shown by the Jewish community a7er the Holocaust. Gilbert suggests that historical awareness dawns on people gradually (Gilbert, 1984). The historian does this by comparing the evidence of two decades: the 1950s and the 1980s (when he ar;culated this view). He argues that in the 1950s, the Holocaust “seemed… to have been relegated to historical limbo”. He provides relevant evidence, such as the “minimal” “references” in “history books” (Gilbert, 1984, p. 1), the lack of memoirs and the lack of research. This is a key strength of Gilbert’s view he indicates the evidence that suggests the lack of confronta;on of the Jewish community with the Holocaust and their trauma unlike Rotenstreich and Scholem. This means that when comparing this to the evident awareness of the Holocaust in the 1980s, Gilbert clearly highlights a turning point “all that has now changed”. In par;cular, Gilbert notes the increased “researc h in Holocaust studies” (Gilbert, 1984, p. 1) and suggests that the lack of ini;al response was partly down to the lack of understanding of what had occurred. He even recognised the impact of this on the understanding of the interna;onal community, as the Holocaust was now “not only in [the curriculum of] Jewish schools” (Gilbert, 1984, p. 1) Unlike Rotenstreich and Scholem, Gilbert highlights the interac;ons of the Jewish community and the interna;onal community (and its significance in helping us reach a conclusion). For example, this can be useful when considering the case of Primo Levi’s memoir and the adop;on of genocide as an official legal term.
Moreover, Gilbert’s argument for the Jewish community’s lack of ini;al confronta;on with their trauma holds true for other trauma;c events. In a study detailing adult disclosure of sexual assault, some “survivors [described] lacking an awareness about whether or not they were abused” and that others “noted the fear that disclosure will ruin their present lives” or that people “will reject their story”. (Dafna Tener, 2015). This study, like Gilbert’s argument, connects the response of those who experienced trauma to those who surround them. Gilbert’s view, alongside the study, provides ample evidence to suggest that when there is inadequate knowledge of trauma;c events in society, vic;ms are highly reluctant to acknowledge or reveal their experiences.
An increase in awareness of those who did not experience the trauma leads to increase in “memoirs” regarding the trauma (Gilbert, 1984, p. 1) as seen in the exponen;al growth in Holocaust memoirs decades a7er adequate research and educa;on was provided post-WW2. The ar;cle on sexual abuse also recognises the idea that a lack of awareness regarding the trauma;c event leads to a lack of direct confronta;on with one’s trauma in response to increased research on sexual abuse trauma, there has been an increase in children revealing experiences of sexual abuse rather than carrying the trauma alone into adulthood. (Dafna Tener, 2015). This same principle is applied in England’s na;onal curriculum, which includes PSHE as a subject because the government “[expects] schools to use PSHE
educa;on… to equip pupils with a sound understanding of risk and with the knowledge and skills necessary to make safe and informed decisions”. (Department for Educa;on, 2021, p. 1)
A significant strength of Gilbert’s argument is that his view has extensive tangen;al evidence (similar conclusions have been reached in other studies of trauma;c events). This sets it apart from Rotenstreich and Scholem’s arguments which are undeniably narrower. The other two views separate the Jewish response from other trauma;c responses and aMempt to give very individualised jus;fica;ons for the generally reluctance of the Jewish community to face the trauma of the Holocaust a7er the end of the war. Gilbert’s response seems to hold true for all humanity whilst providing a wide scope of evidence to suggest this model for post-trauma reac;on applied to Jews post-Holocaust. This means that Gilbert’s argument applied to virtually all Jewish survivors, regardless of religiosity, secularity or one’s standpoint on the establishment of a Jewish state. Gilbert’s interpreta;on addresses a jus;fica;on for the reluctancy to ini;a lly confront Holocaust-related trauma that applied to the general Jewish community.
Gilbert’s argument is not without minor weaknesses. Similarly to Rotenstreich, he does not incorporate the theological views of religious Jews. Rotenstreich’s argument did not apply to the en;rety of Jewry it only encompassed Zionist Jews. However, Gilbert’s view is supported by extensive evidence found in other trauma studies and it becomes clear that the gradual development of historical awareness is present throughout all of humanity and is, thus, independent of one’s religious views. Therefore, Gilbert does not limit the propor;on of Jews post-Holocaust that his interpreta;on could have applied for. The strengths of Gilbert’s argument far outweigh the minor weaknesses. He provides a convincing argument based on human psychology and historical evidence, unlike the other sources.
The strength of Scholem’s argument is that it is the only one that directly deals with the impact of religion on why Jewish people were reluctant to confront trauma regarding the Holocaust a7er the end of the war. Scholem claims that “all the essen;al mys;cal revela;ons in the monotheis;c religions were associated with crises” (Scholem, 1975, pp. 74-75). Scholem draws out a paMern found in biblical literature to apply to the thinking of post-WWII Jews (‘the people of Israel’ (Scholem, 1975, pp. 7475)). Examples of this (in Exodus) are: the enslavement of the Israelites in Egypt leading to their promises of a land being fulfilled, the idolatrous submission to a golden calf leading to a new covenant between the biblical G-d and the Israelites. Scholem suggests that Jews, post -Holocaust, delayed confron;ng their trauma as they were an;cipa;ng a divine miracle. He even provides a recent example of “mys;cal revela;ons” a7er “crises” “the Lurianic Cabala… was a response of the Jewish people to the expulsion from Spain” (Scholem, 1975, pp. 74-75) in order to compound the likelihood that Jews worldwide were an;cipa;ng a revela;on. Scholem’s argument has some merit the Talmud claimed that the messiah was supposed to arrive before the Jewish year 6000, which was rapidly approaching. Therefore, some religious Jews halted any confronta;on of trauma caused by the Holocaust as they were expec;ng the coming of the messiah.
However, Scholem’s argument is narrow. Within religious Jewish communi;es, forecas;ng a revela;on was only one of a mul;tude of theological responses to the Holocaust. For many, the reluctance to confront their induced trauma was due to the incompa;bility of their religious beliefs with the events of the Holocaust. As the classifica;on ‘religious Jews’ is broad, I have chosen to solely focus on the theological jus;fica;ons argued by leading post-Holocaust rabbis. Although this does not show the rela;ve support of each response, it highlights the variety of responses that accumulated (especially amongst leading biblical scholars). These theological responses include the ‘G-d is dead’ argument which Rabbi Rubenstein propounded, the ‘For our sins’ argu ment pushed by Hassidic rabbis including Rabbi M.M Schneersohn and the ‘For the sins of the world’ argument advanced by Ignaz Maybaum (Yosef, 1987, pp. 19-22). The ‘G-d is dead’ response claimed that such evil could not occur
if a G-d s;ll existed; the ‘For our sins’ response claimed that the Holocaust must have been punishment and retribu;on for sins of the Jewish people; the ‘For the sins of the world’ response suggests that the Holocaust occurred so that the evil of the world could be removed and society could progress (Yosef, 1987, pp. 19-22). The development of each of these responses contributed to the reluctance of religious Jews to confront their trauma from the Holocaust to similar extents that the details of Scholem’s argument contributed. Even within his narrow focus on the religious response, Scholem fails to provide the full picture for theological debate post-Holocaust.
Beyond this, Scholem’s argument only considers the lack of ini;al confronta;on of trauma for religious Jews He fails to recognise that the same reluctancy to face the trauma of the Holocaust a7er the end of the war was present amongst secular Jews too this significantly weakens his interpreta;on. This shows similar problems of generalisa;on that Rotenstreich’s interpreta;on suffers from. The only sugges;on of a more inclusive argument by Scholem comes in the last line ‘the deeper the shock, the longer it will take for the response to be crystalised’ (Scholem, 1975, pp. 74-75) However, he does not develop his argument further unlike Rotenstreich and Gilbert. Because of this, his view remains limited both in scope and reasoning.
Each view has its own merits and weaknesses. All three men Rotenstreich, Gilbert and Scholem fail, to some extent, to provide arguments that dis;nguish between the reac;ons of religious Jews and secular Jews. However, Gilbert’s view although failing to do this does provide a reasoning behind the reluctancy to face the trauma of the Holocaust a7er the war that applies to all Jews regardless of religious observance. His argument is well -documented amongst other studies (including rape vic;ms) and so is a consistent model for judging delayed-trauma awareness/confronta;on Whilst he fails to incorporate intricacies specific to the Holocaust that perhaps do not apply to other events, he provides a far more holis;c argument than Rotenstreich’s and Scholem’s arguments. Therefore, Gilbert’s argument is the most convincing.
Bibliography
Dafna Tener, S. B. M., 2015. Adult Disclosure of Child Sexual Abuse: A Literature Review. [Online]
Available at: hMps://www.jstor.org/stable/26638369
Department for Educa;on, 2021. Personal, social, health and economic (PSHE) educaCon. [Online]
Available at: hMps://www.gov.uk/government/publica;ons/personal-social-health-and-economiceduca;on-pshe/personal-social-health-and-economic-pshe-educa;on Gilbert, M., 1984. In: The Holocaust in retrospect: AFer 40 years. s.l.:Centre for Conflict Resolu;on, University of Cape Town, p. 1.
Halamish, A., 2018. ImmigraCon is Israel's History, So Far. [Online]
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Rotenstreich, N., 1980. In: Essays on Zionism and the contemporary Jewish condiCon. s.l.:Herzl Press, p. 43.
Sands, P., 2017. This arCcle is more than 6 years old Primo Levi’s If This is a Man at 70. [Online]
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Scholem, G., 1975. Devarim bego. In: s.l.:'Am 'Oved, pp. 74-75. United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, W. D., n.d. Displaced Persons. [Online]
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Available at: hMps://www.jstor.org/stable/24763786
Aarush Bahel
LAW
Aarush Bahel chose ‘Athlete Data & Current Legislation’ as his ERP focus because of his love for sport and interest in data analytics. The paper discusses the discrepancies between data privacy laws and the way data is handled by clubs and organisations. Aarush is studying Maths, Further Maths, Economics, and Theology and wants to pursue Business at university.
Athlete Data & Current Legislation
In 2016, British mathematician Clive Humby described data as the ‘new oil,’ referring to the idea that data, like oil, needs to be refined to extract its full utility (Suarez-Davis, 2022). However, today, we see that he was onto something much bigger. Data, like oil, is an extremely valuable and powerful commodity; it allows companies to exert influence on consumers. Data is a currency of control (Suarez-Davis, 2022).
Global legislation has given everyday consumers rights that give them ‘control’ of their personal data and how it is used by others, providing them with essential protections. The story for athletes, however, is very different, with little regulation and protection given to their data, creating a discrepancy between the rights of consumers and those of athletes: a problem slowly starting to be tackled. This paper canvasses the current landscape of data protection for athletes.
Uses of Data in the Consumer World
Data has become an integral part in the current landscape of consumption, specifically through the services provided by its primary function: personalisation. Personalisation provides companies with two main benefits: increased consumer engagement due to a superior user interface (UI), and more targeted advertising. This personalisation is crucial to satisfy customers and increase revenue. A report by McKinsey in 2021 found that 71% of consumers expect personalisation, while 76% of people get frustrated when they don't find it. The report also found that companies see 40% more revenue from personalized marketing actions or tactics (McKinsey, 2021).
Where does this data come from?
All online activity is monitored and stored; this stored information is called data. There are three types of data collected: information gathered using their services; data which can be gathered automatically, such as your location, device type, app usage, and many more; and information given by third parties. For example, Amazon's privacy notice and Instagram's data policy give a clear outline of the data collected and how it is collected, and act as good indicators for the consumer information that companies have access to.
Data Use by Social Media Companies
Information gathered from social media companies themselves and from third party apps give insights into the interests and behavioural habits of consumers, enabling businesses to provide every user with a unique experience, tailored to them individually. T his means that each user views content which is more relevant to them, making the app more engaging. This use of data is most commonly deployed by social media platforms, who use this information to increase the time spent on their page by each user, which allows them to show more ads in every interaction with consumers. A study by pCloud showed that Instagram and Facebook consistently ranked first and second for apps which share the most data with third parties, collect the most data for their own benefit, and track the most data overall (Dimitrov, 2021). This suggests that social media platforms tend to value data more than other businesses; it is a vital tool for the success of their companies.
Data Use by Online Retailers
Online retailers use this same information to increase sales, by suggesting products which are more relevant to each user, and hence are items the consumer is more likely and willing to buy. These platforms also benefit hugely from the information they receive ‘automatically’ from the device in use. Search histories help companies recommend items that the customer is currently looking to buy. Information they collate about an individual’s device type, age, location (and movements), among
other things, help them gauge an understanding of that individual’s socio -economic status, allowing companies to suggest items which are popular to people within that demographic. Knowledge of a person’s socio-economic status, paired with their race, religion, sex, and other characteristics is also critical in advertising. All this information helps businesses target certain audiences, which their products are aimed at. Data also helps increase revenue for platforms who advertise as the cost of advertising to people who companies have more information on is higher. This effectively means that people who offer more data are worth more to companies than those who give no information. According to Statistica, Google made $224 billion through ad revenue in 2022. In 2024, 79% of their total revenue for the year, $322 billion, was spent on media advertising in the US, demonstrating that advertising is highly valuable to companies. This advertising is enhanced by the powerful tool of data (Bianchi, 2024).
The Dangers of Data
Just as data is a very positive tool to enhance services, it can be an equally dangerous one. There are various cases where data has led to many harmful consequences, such as the breaching of our individual rights of privacy, and negatively affecting people’s brains.
The Adverse Mental Health Effects of Social Media
For example, in the process of increasing app usage, the use of data has made social media platforms harmful to users. These apps collect a multitude of information on each consumer, down to the time spent viewing each post, which is put through an algorithm that helps suggest content the user is likely to enjoy. While this process makes the app more engaging, it can also make it highly addictive. One platform which particularly falls foul of this issue is TikTok. The majority of content viewed on the platform is seen on the platform’s “For You Page,” which plays content specifically curated for each user. This has made usage of the app by its consumers more compulsive than even its competitors: in 2023, the average time spent on TikTok per month by users globally was over 33 hours, far higher than the average numbers of hours spent on the next most-used social media platform, Facebook, which was just under 19 hours (Howarth, 2023). In 2023, 77.7% of Gen Zs and 73.5% of Millennials in the US believed Tik Tok was addictive, while 24.1% and 37.3% of the same groups felt negative mental health effects as a result of the use of TikTok (Ceci, 2023). According to researchers at Brown University, “high levels of social media addiction can lead to adverse effects on health, mental health and productivity. Studies show that it negatively impacts productivity and reduces people’s ability to be present in the moment. Other studies suggest that it is associated with depression, anxiety, poor sleep, and unhealthy habits. It has been well established that social media addiction is negatively impacting both individuals as well as larger population health” (Bujph, 2022). The addictiveness of social media platforms and the deleterious effects they have are an obtrusive demonstrajon of the dangers of the use of data.
Data Breaches
There have also been several incidents where data has been at the forefront of cases involving breaches of individuals’ privacy. “In 2016 Uber’s database was breached by two individuals who were able to download files containing a significant amount of personal information including: the names and driver license numbers of around 600,000 drivers in the US; along with some personal information of 57 million Uber users around the world including names, email addresses, and mobile phone numbers” (Khosrowshahi, 2016). Uber’s CSO at the time, Joseph Sullivan, covered up the breach, disguising a “pay-off fee” to the hackers as a payment to a bug bounty programme. The hackers were made to sign a non-disclosure agreement which (falsely) stated that no data was lost. The incident was concealed for a year before being disclosed to the public when Uber’s new CEO, Dara
Khosrowshahi, joined in 2017. Sullivan is currently serving his sentence of a maximum of 8 years for obstruction of justice (DataGuard, 2023)
Probably the most renowned incident was the Cambridge Analytica scandal. In 2014, Robert Mercer, a Republican donor, invested $15 million into Cambridge Analytica, a political consulting firm (Confessore, 2018). The firm, under the guidance of Aleksandr Kogan, collected private data from over 50 million Facebook users, with the aim to try and influence the 2016 presidential election in the U.S. The company collected information on users’ identities and personality traits to target audiences with personalized political advertisements (Granville 2018). Kogan’s company, Global Science Research, paid 270,000 users to do a personality test, on an app called ‘thisisyourdigitallife,’ and agree to have their data collected for academic purposes. However, the app also collected data from each user’s friends on the site, enabling them to gather information on millions of users. Facebook’s policy at the time allowed for friends' data to be collected for an improved user experience on the platform but prohibited it from being sold or used for advertisement. The people involved in the study believed their information was being used for research. (Cadwalladr & Graham-Harrison 2018).
Both the Cambridge Analytica scandal and Uber scandal are clear violations of individuals’ rights to privacy, and the cases highlighted the inadequateness of the policies and legislation surrounding data protection for consumers.
What has been done since?
A series of legislation has been passed to increase privacy laws surrounding data:
• In May 2018 the GDPR, which applies to all European citizens and residents, was introduced. The law implemented new rules and reinstated old ones. Some key inclusions are:
• Consent – freely given, informed consumer consent is required for companies to process an individual’s data. This is most commonly done through “accepting cookies” and optional subscriptions, such as mailing lists.
• Purpose – to process an individual’s data there must be legitimate purposes, explicitly specified and consented to when it was collected
• Storage Limitation – there are strict laws which limit how data can be stored
• Accountability – data controllers must be able to demonstrate that they are GDPR compliant.
• “Users were given a set of privacy rights, including:
• The right to be informed
• The right of access
• The right to rectification
• The right to erasure
• The right to restrict processing
• The right to data portability
• The right to object
• Rights in relation to automated decision making and profiling” (GDPR.eu, 2023)
• Similar legislation has been passed in California under the California Consumer Privacy Act 2018, which impacts all companies that offer their services to Californian residents. This effectively means all major organisations in the US are impacted by these laws.
• The type of data concerned in both legislations is personal data. “‘ [P]ersonal data’ means any information relating to an identified or identifiable natural person (‘data subject’); an identifiable natural person is one who can be identified, directly or indirectly, in particular by reference to an identifier such as a name, an identification number, location data, an online identifier or to one or more factors specific to the physical, physiological, genetic, mental, economic, cultural or social identity of that natural person” (GDPR, 2018).
Use of Data in Sport
Just like in the wider world, data is used in sport. Data has benefits for players, coaches, owners, teams, leagues and companies involved in sport. It helps track performance for players and teams, it helps owners pick their rosters and decide who to sell and buy, and it helps leagues and companies grow commercially.
Roster selection
Perhaps the most famous practical application of data in sport was when Oakland Athletics’ General Manager, Billy Beane, used sabermetrics the empirical analysis of baseball to create a play-off worthy team in 2000, despite his relatively low budget (Reider, 2014). This case is most commonly known as ‘Moneyball.’ Beane adopted this empirical method to evaluate players due to the disparity in funds between the teams in the MLB at the time. In 2002, Beane’s Oakland A’s had the lowest payroll at $39 million, just under a third of the Yankees’ payroll of $126 million, the highest in the league (Lewis, 2003). This gap meant Beane wasn’t able to contract the best players in the league and needed to find a different way of winning games. Beane’s method used statistics “with an extensive list of variables” (Reider, 2014) that go into greater depth, giving more precise and refined information, than common statistics traditionally used, such as batting averages. This process used readily available data to quantitatively predict a “player's ability to contribute to his team’s success” (Reider, 2014). The Oakland Athletics went on to win 91 games spending $26 million in 2000, 102 games in 2001 spending $34 million, and 103 games in 2002 the most in Oakland Athletics’ history. More impressive was their marginal spending (the amount spent over the $7 million minimum) per win. In that three-year period, the Oakland A’s spent around $500,000 per win, the lowest in the league. The only other team with a six-figure marginal spending was the Minnesota Twins, at $675,000 per win. Oakland were six times more efficient than the profligate teams in the league, such as the Baltimore Orioles and the Texas Rangers, who were at around $3 million per win. Beane’s method was one of the earliest of its kind to succeed and the attention it drew changed the landscape of sport (Lewis, 2003).
Training and Coaching
The significance of data in sport has only grown since Moneyball. Today data is used by teams and athletes all over the world to monitor performance. The growth of data has given addijonal insights into training and matches, which can be tracked over jme. This enables people to analyze trends in performance to help evaluate performance beyond final outcome-based metrics, i.e. win/loss, success/fail. These metrics can oten be affected by external factors that go beyond the team or
individual’s performance (such as opponents) or not reveal the true quality of a performance (e.g. if a team controls a game of football but misses three open goals and doesn’t win). Data can also help isolate weaknesses in performances. For example, during the 2023 ATP tour, Carlos Alcaraz’s first-serve effecjveness which measures “how oten the shot earns a player an advantage in points” was below the tour average of 58%, yet his first serve points won was 72% (ATP, 2023). The data highlights a weakness in Alcaraz’s game that may not have been nojced through watching his matches, as he sjll wins a large majority of points on first serve. He can monitor his stats over jme and see if he is improving and assess whether his training plan is working. In football, stajsjcs such as xG – the expected number of goals a team will score over the course of a game based on the probability of each of their shots going in – and big chances created – the number of chances created by a team that are expected to be scored – give a manager a sense of how well their team is playing offensively. The reverse stajsjcs (e.g. xG against) can give them an idea of the team’s defensive ability. A manager can then beuer assess whether certain tacjcs and players are effecjve in improving the team based on these stats instead of simply their win/loss rajo. They can also compare their team with other teams in the league to evaluate where their team compares from a performance perspecjve. An owner can complete a similar evaluajon with these figures to judge whether the current team is matching his expectajons and can use them to decide to change the strategy of the organizajon if necessary.
Injury Prevenjon and Rehabilitajon
Data also plays a big role in training, helping teams monitor training loads to prevent injury. Global Positioning System (GPS) devices and heart rate monitors allow teams to track players positions and efforts during training and matches. This gives insights into the distance covered by players; the number of sprints, walks, jogs, and accelerations they do; and their level of exertion. With this information, medical staff in sports teams can tailor training for individual players controlling the level of intensity to ensure they are in the best condition each week and avoid injury. In the Premier League, managers have this information in game and can make substitutions when a player is displaying signs of overexertion.
The utilization of data for commercial purposes has grown and is continuing to grow. Today, data is used in health tracking, betting, and to increase fan engagement generating greater revenue streams for companies.
Personal Data in Sport
Global legislation protects personal data. In sport, any data that is personally idenjfiable (such as an image, GPS data with your name, a movement profile in a computer game that is disjncjve to you, etc) is covered by GDPR and CCPA. Almost all an athlete’s data is unique and recognisable to them, so should be protected by both these laws.
The Issue Surrounding Data in Sport
Athlete data is a tool which hugely benefits sports teams, just as it benefits companies in the wider world; however, the legislation surrounding data in the sports world isn’t as advanced. The GDPR, and CCPA, states that consumers are the ones who have control over their data, but this isn’t the case in the sports world: the parties that hold and control the data are the leagues, organizations, and teams in sport. The player data collected gets used by these parties with minimal control from the players themselves, which contrasts global legislation.
Based on my interviews with experts in the sports industry, there were two main issues with how data is handled in sport: 1) the involvement of athletes in the collecjon and storage of data, and 2). how, and when, the data is presented to athletes.
In elite soccer, data legislajon is not followed, especially in Europe. An employee at a sports data technology corporajon said that there was no structure in place surrounding data rights – “European soccer players don’t even consent to being on TV ” This is something that is effecjvely accepted as part of the job, but there is never any legal consent given, according to this interviewee. An ex-head of research and innovajon at an elite Premier League club stated that there was no recognijon of a player’s data rights in their contracts (in the European leagues). Players are also not educated about their data rights – he admiued that he would be surprised if any player he ever met knew their rights surrounding their data; this conflicts with the ‘right to be informed’ granted under GDPR and CCPA. He went so far as to say that none of the GDPR is followed in relajon to player’s data at Premier League soccer clubs.
My interview with a D1 college soccer player in the US provides an understanding of how data is transferred to players. She recounts never being shown her data by the coaches voluntarily. The data was given when asked, but this raised a few problems for her teammates and her. Firstly, the willingness of the team to ask would vary based on everyone’s personality types and relationship with the coaches she distinctly remembers some teammates not having the confidence to go and ask for their data. Secondly, the storage of data by the coaches gave them complete control of how they used or misused it they were able to share information to the extent they wished. There is an ethical issue which arises here: players gain advantages over others purely based on their ability to feel comfortable asking the coaches which she said was quite daunting given it wasn’t ‘the norm’. For players playing at a high level and seeking professional contracts, these insights could be the difference between getting selected or not.
She also recalls tracking her ‘training loads’ (which provided her with feedback on whether something worked/didn’t work) on paper during strength and conditioning sessions, instead of digitally. The records of her training statistics were kept in the gym and weren’t given to her when she left college, leaving her with no physical evidence to track and remember her loads. This information can be critical and helpful in trying to avoid future injuries A similar problem occurs in the professional soccer in Europe. As clubs store the information, an athlete’s data isn’t shared across clubs or national teams: a player can’t take their previous training loads with him if they move club or spend time representing their country. Players also aren’t given their data in a sophisticated way: training data is most commonly shared as a PDF on WhatsApp or as a printout (which could be given to a player or stuck outside their shower for them to look at as they come out). This isn’t helpful for players as they are then required to remember the information, or properly store themselves in order to look back on it. The data isn’t given in a form that can show trends over time, which could be helpful for players to check whether training plans are working.
There are some exceptions, however. Barcelona, for example, have developed a more sophisticated data system. Albert Mundet, the CEO of Barcelona Innovation Hub, gave insight to their more advanced approach to data. All players sign a contract that gives their consent to having all their data collected – whether this consent is ‘freely given’ can be questioned, but the structure in place is better than the majority of teams across Europe. The club provides a phone to each of the players , and data is shared through these devices upon the request of players.
Solutions
There is a clear issue surrounding the handling of athlete data when it comes to both the law, and the practical element of athletes having control of their data for their own development. Currently, there are some initiatives in place to fix the issue. On e initiative is by a company called BreakAway Data, which is a tool for players to collect their data. BreakAway collects and pools player’s data from a large
database and shares collated data with the players. It empowers the players and enables them to transfer their data with them as they move across different teams. This is a great initiative that makes players less reliant on clubs, but it potentially only provides a temporary solution. BreakAway is a venture to try to support the players, however it doesn’t fully protect the legal rights of athletes. It also isn’t realistic for a singular company to provide data for all athletes in Europe and the US in the short term. A league-wide approach is required to fix the issue this was another theme that came out from the interviews. There needs to be greater regulation and authority from the leagues and other governing bodies to resolve the issue in the long term. There is a growing consideration being given towards empowering athletes – for example, the recent NIL initiative, which gives college football players compensation for their name, image, and likeness (NIL) being used for promotional endeavours (Icon Source, 2022). All of this suggests that the industry is moving in a positive direction, which is encouraging even if there is a long way still to go.
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Amelia Howie
MODERN FOREIGN LANGUAGES
Amelia Howie chose resistance to the Nazi occupation of France as the topic for her ERP as she wanted to combine her love of languages with her interest in history. The project considered the impact of different forms of active and passive resistance, including the formation of guerilla groups and the role of women. It also explored the impact of the clandestine press, which was crucial as reading secret newspapers was the main form of resistance undertaken by most of the population. Amelia is studying French, German, and History at A level and wants to study French and German at university.
What impact did different forms of Resistance have on the Nazi occupa7on of France?
In 1940, in a shocking turn of events, Nazi Germany occupied France, defea?ng one of the most powerful armies in Europe, in just six weeks. Immediately, many people who refused to support the occupa?on began to form into resistance groups, opposing the occupa?on, and carrying out ac?ons which were harmful to the German authori?es and military The fact that so many people were so quick to join these groups shows just how strongly the occupa?on was opposed. These groups carried out many forms of resistance, such as violence against the German army, smuggling, and the publica?on of clandes?ne literature, and all of these had some kind of impact either on Germany, or the people of France. Whilst some forms of Resistance focused more on encouraging people to avoid collabora?on, others took a stronger stance against the Germans and ac?vely tried to hinder their opera?ons
‘THE EARLY FRENCH RESISTANCE IN PARIS’ (Blumenson, 1977) explores the origins of resistance to the Nazi occupa?on of France. In this ar?cle, Blumenson explains that the first resistance to the Nazis came before the Armis?ce between France and Germany, which allowed the occupa?on to happen, had even been signed. This was in the form of a radio message from General Charles de Gaulle, in which he spoke to the French people from London. He insisted that the war could be won and that ‘the flame of the French resistance must not die and will not die’. Blumenson notes that the term ‘resistance’ here was used in a military context but soon led to those who were unsuppor?ve of the armis?ce beginning to act. Over the following weeks, de Gaulle’s message was heard by most of the French people and more and more began to join the Resistance movement, which began to carry out ac?vi?es such as crea?ng false papers or distribu?ng propaganda leaflets. This led to increasingly large numbers of people joining various Resistance groups across France.
One of the most well-known of these Resistance groups was known as Le Maquis The name of the group translates to ‘scrubland’, which is where its members lived to avoid being discovered. It began to form in 1943 in response to the introduc?on of Service du Travail Obligatoire (STO), meaning compulsory work service (Ravanel, 1995) As part of this service, hundreds of thousands of young French men were forced to go to Germany to work, an idea which horrified many families. Preven?ng this was one of the biggest challenges the Resistance had faced yet. Recognising that simply telling men to refuse to take part would not suffice, exis?ng Resistance groups realised that they would have to help these young men to hide, and so the Maquis was born. In his book, Ravanel recalls a discussion with the head of his Resistance department in which they discussed how these new members of the Resistance would be hidden and shared that many people who owned homes in rural loca?ons were willing to house two or three men each, which allowed men who refused to par?cipate in STO to have somewhere to live where they would be safe. This was very successful as by August 1943, 95% of men were escaping from STO, and a`acks on STO officers were becoming more common (Kochanksi, 2022). Those who did refuse to par?cipate in STO were known as réfractaires Having these groups of men who already refused to support the Nazi regime in hiding together led to the sharing of ideas between them and exis?ng members of the Resistance, and thus, Le Maquis was born. The movement grew rapidly, with between 15,000 and 40,000 members by autumn 1943 and around 100,000 by June 1944. Recruitment into the Maquis varied by region; in Doubs, Burgundy, only around 5% of those who escaped STO became maquisards, but in Alpes-Mari?mes the figure was around 20% (Kochanski, 2022). Refusing to par?cipate in the STO was an act of resistance, and impacted the Nazis as they had less workers and less control over the popula?on, even if most of those who refused did not join the Maquis Addi?onally, the government feared that punishing réfractaires would push many of them into ac?ve Resistance and treated them as though they had lost their way, rather than as criminals. This meant that the Resistance now had thousands more men who could help them to carry out their
objec?ves, and therefore, some of the réfractaires were able to make a more significant impact on the Nazis in this way, by helping exis?ng Resistance groups.
Those who did join the Maquis became part of a group of guerilla fighters, carrying out acts of sabotage and violence against not only the Nazis, but also those who collaborated with them. They were able to gain support from the majority of those living in rural areas, especially as helping to hide maquisards drew many more people into the Resistance, who otherwise would not have been involved. Members were forced to exchange their real iden?ty documents for false ones and take on a new iden?ty, which was challenging for many. They then received training which tended to last for around three weeks. Once trained, maquisards began to carry out small a`acks on STO and ra?on offices, before planning bigger, more dangerous, and more violent a`acks. For example, the group Francs->reurs et par>sans, which was one of many Maquis organisa?ons, was responsible for the execu?on of around 50 German soldiers in June 1944 (Schofield, 2023) In an interview with Edmond Réveil, who is now 98 years old, it was revealed that he was part of a group of 30 resistance fighters, who were escor?ng the German soldiers, who were taken as prisoners during the French uprising in Tulle shortly aier D-Day, through the countryside when they were told to kill them; by the ?me of this event, the Resistance was beginning to stage more and more uprisings against the Nazis, which played a significant role in finally bringing the Nazi occupa?on to an end. Although Réveil himself did not take part in the execu?on, he said that ‘discipline’ was important for those in the Resistance and although many of the members did not want to carry out the order, they did so as they believed that obeying orders was important for their cause to be successful. Although this ar?cle only gives the account of one individual and his tes?mony cannot be corroborated as he is the last surviving witness, Réveil stated that his reason for coming forward was to ensure that those who had been executed were remembered, sugges?ng that his tes?mony is likely to contain accurate informa?on, although it is possible that he has not remembered all of the details as his tes?mony was given for the first ?me 75 years aier the event. This is just one example of the brutality and violence of the Maquis towards the Nazi regime. This worried the Vichy government, as they had feared since 1940 that guerrilla fighters would destroy France, and now they could see the emergence of guerrilla groups. In response, the government treated those who joined the Maquis very harshly. Although réfractaires were not treated harshly (Whitney, 2022), maquisards were, and were not recognised as soldiers, so did not have the rights that prisoners of war did. This shows the bravery of those who joined and demonstrates their convic?on that their ac?ons were important and necessary to free France from the Nazis.
However, violence was not the only op?on for those who joined the Maquis As Resistance groups grew in membership, more and more unlikely people began to carry out acts of resistance. For example, Marcel Pinte, who was only six years old and did not seem suspicious at all due to his age and appearance, was used by his father, a Resistance leader in the Maquis, to carry secret le`ers and messages between members of the Resistance (BBC, 2020). He became an agent known as Quinquin, meaning ‘the li`le kid’. Marcel wanted to do what he could to help, as his father was a prominent maquisard. Marcel was killed in a tragic accident in 1944 when one of the men in his resistance group’s gun went off accidentally, but Marcel was given a posthumous Resistance ID card and has now had his name inscribed on a memorial to members of the Resistance. This shows the variety of roles within the Resistance; it was not only groups of young men carrying out violent acts, but people of all ages doing what they could to help protect France.
Another group which may not have been expected to play a significant role was women. At the ?me of the occupa?on, both the Nazi and Vichy regimes held the firm belief that a woman’s role was at home looking aier her husband and children. Hitler said that men and women were equally important but had different roles in society, and that women should focus on Kinder, Küche, Kirche, meaning
‘children, kitchen, church’. Women were able to take on a role in the Resistance in two ways; they could either play into the roles expected of them, or contradict them (Andrieu, 2000). In ‘Women in the French Resistance: Revisi?ng the Historical Record’, Andrieu gives an example of a woman who used her tradi?onal role in the home to resist the occupa?on. Chris?an Pineau, a leading figure in the Resistance stayed with the family of a woman called Thérèse when he came to Lyon He wrote in his memoirs that Thérèse would stay up un?l the early hours of the morning ironing his clothes, saying that she was doing this ‘for France’. Although this act could have been seen as ‘helping a terrorist ’ by the Nazi regime, Thérèse took this risk, and was able to u?lise her tradi?onal role to help the Resistance. This form of resistance was less ac?ve than many others, but nevertheless was s?ll impacnul and made an important contribu?on to the Resistance against the Nazis.
In contrast, many women took on a more ac?ve role. The novel ‘Epic Anne`e: A Heroine’s Tale’ (Weber, 2020) details the life of Anne`e, a young woman who, eager to dedicate her life to a cause she believed in, began to resist at the age of 16, before joining the outlawed Communist Party, and carrying out acts of resistance. Like Edmond Réveil’s account of his experience in the Maquis, the book describes the very strict discipline in the Resistance, especially for those of lower ranks like Anne`e, who was ‘just a cog in the wheel and her only job is to turn’. Surprisingly, these rules were so strict that Anne`e was reprimanded for saving the lives of two Jewish teenagers and a baby. Although this would be seen by many as the ul?mate act of resistance it was viewed by Anne`e’s supervisors as an act of selfishness, in which Anne`e put herself and others in danger. In fact, in the eyes of the Party, Anne`e was ‘resis?ng the Resistance’, and this resulted in her demo?on Another precau?on taken by the Party was only allowing each of its members to know two others, and only by their false names This protected the members, as if one member was captured, they would be unable to give any details about those they had worked with, even under torture. This was a crucial way in which the Party managed to have a significant impact on the Nazis, by denying them the opportunity to obtain any significant informa?on about the Resistance from its members.
Women like Anne`e were also able to have a different impact on the Nazis to many of her colleagues, due to her age and gender. She is described as looking ‘harmless, far more harmless, no doubt, than she actually is’. Her first act of resistance as a teenager was delivering packages for a prisoner of war, and then for a primary school teacher, both of whom were trying to resist the Nazis. This was a ‘slow slide’ into ac?ve resistance for Anne`e, who longed to do something that she found more impacnul. Nevertheless, being a young woman meant that the Nazis were less likely to suspect Anne`e and allowed her to carry out these tasks more easily and without raising suspicion.
This was the case for many other women too. For example, in Résistante (The Guardian, 2009), Gisele Guillemot recalls how her ‘youngster’s manner’ and ‘schoolgirl’s ounit’ helped her to carry out her mission of delivering forbidden goods to supporters of the Resistance to make their lives easier. She says that the Germans were oien more lenient with her simply because she was young and female. Guillemot describes being terrified that she would be caught by the Germans and tortured by the Gestapo, who were known to treat members of the Resistance harshly. However, she also says that the Germans tolerated her smuggling of food to a certain extent and would oien not search her bag thoroughly and would make jokes about the black market. This also gives an insight into how it was possible for the Resistance to operate: although many of their opera?ons were of the utmost secrecy, some relied on the negligence of the Germans, and it shows the skill of many members of the Resistance that they were able to use this to their advantage to have an impact on the Nazis. Another important example of smuggling helped with the publica?on of clandes?ne literature, as part of the prin?ng process involved the use of heavy metal stencils which needed to be transported from the place where they were produced to the secret loca?on of prin?ng presses (Kochanski, 202 2). One
woman, realising that men carrying these heavy stencils would look suspicious, placed 90 kilograms of lead in her pram, and was able to secretly transport it in this way, so that it could be used to print secret newspapers and books.
The clandes?ne press was a crucial part of the Resistance, as it allowed advice and informa?on about Resistance to be distributed amongst the popula?on. In December 1940 the first issue of the newspaper Résistance was published, which defined resistance for the first ?me and encouraged resistance groups to designate leaders who could communicate with each other, which led to more and more people beginning to act against the Nazis. This was one of over 1,000 underground newspapers published in France (Kochanski, 2022). In addi?on to these, many people began privately publishing documents to be secretly shared amongst the popula?on. The most famous of these was Conseils à l’occupé – ‘Advice to the occupied’, which was produced in the summer of 1940 by Jean Texcier, a French journalist. This gave 33 pieces of advice, mainly including avoiding establishments which welcomed the Germans, trea?ng the press with suspicion, and ignoring the occupiers.
Novels and novellas were also published as acts of resistance. An example of this is ‘Le Silence de la Mer’ (Vercors, 1942). In the novella, Vercors writes about a man and his niece, whose home is used by the German army to house one of their soldiers, Werner von Ebrennac. Despite von Ebrennac’s friendly nature, they refuse to acknowledge or communicate with him. This is a form of passive resistance (Britannica, 2023) as although the characters in the novella do not ac?vely a`empt to act against or hinder the Nazis or the soldier who is living in their home, their refusal to co -operate shows defiance and commitment to their beliefs and their countr y. At the start of the novella, von Ebrennac is enamoured with France and is overjoyed to be working there. Although he receives no reply, he frequently talks to the family, sharing his ideas about the beauty of France and his hopes that one day soon France will be made stronger by being united with Germany. One important simile that he uses to describe this unifica?on is: ‘Il va nous unir, comme mari et femme’, which translates to ‘he will unite us as husband and wife’. However, this can also be interpreted as showing that France will never be equal to Germany, but rather will be controlled by Germany. France is tradi?onally portrayed as feminine, so is the ‘femme’ that von Ebrennac refers to, whilst Germany represents the ‘mari’, the husband. According to both the Nazi party and the Vichy regime, although Hitler stated that women were equal to men but had a different role in society, in prac?ce, women did not have anywhere near as much power as men. This is reflected in this simile used by von Ebrennac to describe the rela?onship between occupied France and Germany; although they may eventually have both been under Nazi control if Germany had won the war as von Ebrennac predicted, France would never be equal to Germany under the Nazis, and would be exploited, rather than rebuilt as von Ebrennac hoped. This is important to note, as von Ebrennac oien seems to present the poten?al unifica?on of France and Germany as posi?ve, and something that could lead to great prosperity. However, Vercors use s this imagery of a man and his wife to show his view that occupied France will never be treated as equal to Nazi Germany. It is likely that this allowed Vercors to share his ideas with the readers of the book and encourage them not to give in to the Nazis, and to con?nue their resistance.
The extent to which the Resistance of the characters in the novel impacted the Nazis may be limited as it only impacted one soldier who did not want to destroy France but had been indoctrinated by Nazi propaganda. However, it can also be argued that although this form of resistan ce may have had li`le tangible impact on the Nazis, it was one of the most important for the French people as it helped them to stay strong against the Nazis, even in a situa?on where it would have been difficult to find hope.
As the novel inspired its readers to resist the Nazi occupa?on and not to give in to them, the publishing of the novella itself was also an act of Resistance by its author. It was first published secretly in 1942 by Jean Bullers, using the name Vercors as a pseudonym to protect himself from associa?on with the
Resistance movement, thereby protec?ng himself from the Nazis. ‘Le Silence de la Mer ’ was his first book, inspired by his desire to counter the French writers who collaborated with the Nazis (Kochanski, 2022). It was also the first book produced by the underground publishing house Édi>ons de Minuit, which went on to produce sixteen more books before the libera?on. ‘Le Silence de la Mer’ was passed between people and by the end of 1942 a copy had reached London, where many copies were made and distributed around the world. This allowed the book to have a greater impact as it reached a wide audience. In France, its distribu?on was slower, as it had to be published and distributed in secret due to Nazi censorship, and therefore relied on copies being passed between people in secret, whereas once the book reached London, it was able to be sold more freely, giving many more people the chance to read and learn about the occupa?on through the work of somebody who was living through it.
The produc?on of clandes?ne literature was difficult, as it was not easy to keep something as big as a prin?ng press hidden, and something as small as ink on someone’s fingers could reveal to the Nazis that they were carrying out a secret project involving prin?ng, which would have raised suspicions (Kochanski, 2022). However, the commitment of those who produced these newspapers, pamphlets, and books shows the importance of literature and the press in resis?ng the occupa?on. Although it did not make the same impact on the Nazis that the ac?ons of groups like the Maquis, it was crucial in helping those who did not carry out violent acts of resistance to maintain their belief in France. For many, reading material from the clandes?ne press was the only act of Resistance they ever took, and it was crucial in encouraging them to support those who were more ac?ve, and not lose hope that France could be liberated.
Overall, there were many different forms of Resistance carried out by the French people during the Nazi occupa?on of France during the Second World War. Although it is difficult to measure the impact that these acts had, the violent ac?ons of the Maquis had a very significant and direct impact, both on the Nazi regime and on Nazi soldiers, many of whom were killed by different Resistance groups Their impact was shown by the fear shared by the Nazis and the Vichy Government that guerrilla groups such as the Maquis would destroy France. The acts of women had a less direct impact on the Nazis, but impacted and helped other members of the Resistance, as well as civilians such as the Jewish people that Anne`e saved. Although many of these ac?ons did not directly impact the Nazis, they s?ll contributed greatly to the Resistance and helped to bring an end to the occupa?on. Literature also tended to have an indirect impact on the Nazis, but by inspiring and enabling others to resist, it played a crucial role in the Resistance. As well as this, it created an atmosphere of hope amongst many of those who did not ac?vely par?cipate in the Resistance, which also had an impact on the Nazis by encouraging people not to collaborate. All these ac?ons came together to weaken the Nazis, and eventually make a significant contribu?on to the Libera?on of France in 1944: ‘Throughout France the Resistance had been of ines?mable value in the campaign.’ (Eisenhower, 1948) Therefore, the Resistance in all its forms had a very significant impact on the Nazis during the occupa?on of France.
References
Andrieu, C. (Spring 2000). Women in the French Resistance: Revisi?ng the Historical Record. French Poli?cs, Culture & Society, Vol. 18, pp. 13-27.
BBC News (12th November 2020). France honours six-year-old WW2 Resistance agent. BBC News
Blumenson, M. (Summer 1977). THE EARLY FRENCH RESISTANCE IN PARIS. Naval War College Review, Vol. 30 (Special Issue), pp. 64-72.
Britannica (2023). Vercors (online). Vercors | French Resistance, WWII Novels, Resistance Fighter | Britannica (Accessed 07/02/2024)
Eisenhower, D., 1948. Crusade in Europe - Report on Opera?ons in Northwest Europe, June 6 1944May 8, 1945. New York, Doubleday & Company, Inc.
Kochanski, H., 2022. Resistance – The Underground War in Europe, 1939-45. Great Britain: Penguin Books.
Ravanel, S., 1995. L’ESPRIT DE RÉSISTANCE, edi>on, Paris, Édi?ons du Seuil
Schofield, H. (16th May 2023). French Resistance man breaks silence over German prisoners executed in 1944. BBC News
The Guardian (8th September 2009). Life in occupied France during the Second World War. The Guardian
Vercors (1942). Le Silence de la Mer. 13th ed. Great Britain : BLOOMSBURY
Weber, A., 2020. Epic Anne`e: A Heroine’s Tale. Translated from German by Tess Lewis London: THE INDIGO PRESS
Whitney, C., 6th July 2022. The French Resistance Took Many Forms During WWII (online). The French Resistance Took Many Forms During WWII | HowStuffWorks
Mateo Pavlov
PHILOSOPHY
Mateo Pavlov answered the question ‘Should we be determinists?’ in his ERP, he explored the arguments for and against the idea of free will as well as the consequences of determinism. Mateo is studying Maths, Economics and Philosophy and hopes to pursue Economics at university.
Should we be determinists?
The free will vs. determinism debate has persisted for centuries amongst philosophers, in this research project I intend to present the topic from a range of perspec;ves and determine which is most convincing alongside the more nuanced ques;on of which side we should believe in, regardless of the truth. The truth and the moral good in this debate may be mutually exclusive due to some of the consequences of determinism I will highlight later on.
Free will is the belief that we have the power to autonomously make our own choices and decisions independently of any prior event and unconstrained by any necessity or fate. In order to inves;gate the free will debate, we must have an accurate defini;on of free will and pick apart its meaning clearly. Therefore, we must address the freedom to do otherwise; we only have free will if we could have chosen to do otherwise and been able to do otherwise. There must not only be a possibility of doing otherwise but also an ability to do otherwise. We can ini;ally define an ability to choose otherwise using the categorical analysis preferred by many philosophers; An agent (ra;onal being) S has the ability to choose or do otherwise than (ac;on) X at ;me T if and only if it was possible, holding fixed everything up to T, that S choose or do otherwise than X at T. In short, we only have an ability to choose otherwise if we could have done otherwise at the ;me we made our decision.
Free will is a concept that if disproven, would surely cause for overhauls in many aspects of our society such as our jus;ce system and fundamental ideas of morality. Barack Obama wrote in The Audacity of Hope, American “values are rooted in a basic op;mism about life and a faith in free will.” Without free will, how could we hold people accountable for their ac;ons or punish someone for a crime? It seems that free will is a necessary condi;on for moral responsibility, a cornerstone of almost all socie;es and a driving factor for how we interact with people every day. Some may even claim that we must be intrinsically convinced of free will to a degree as we feel remorse for ac;ons that we regret on moral grounds, sugges;ng that we are aware we could have made a beOer decision.
Determinis;c philosophers present an opposing view, that every human ac;on is the consequence of past events and the laws of nature; that it would be impossible for us to make any other decision or perform any other ac;on than the one we did. John Locke was a philosopher that some consider to have taken a ‘hard determinist’ posi;on. He believed that people have only preprogrammed voli;ons, over which they have no control. Locke’s determinism theory is based on universal causa;on, the belief that all human ac;ons and choices have a past cause, crea;ng an unbreakable chain of past causes which lead to only one voli;on in the present moment; this logically means that the future must be as fixed and unchangeable as the past. Philosopher William James coined the phrase “iron block universe” to describe us as moral agents that are trapped in an unbreakable set of past causes that trace back to the beginning of the universe.
From this premise, we can logically conclude that we are not morally responsible for any of our ac;ons, as people are purely products of their environment. In support of determinism, the story of Charles Whitman can be presented, a man who developed strong irra;onal urges for violence leading to him commiWng mul;ple brutal murders, all caused by a brain tumor which was compressing the amygdala region of his brain. This region controls fear and aggression, and damaging it has been shown to produce large behavioral changes in primates, moreover, there are numerous other cases in which brain tumors have caused a person to feel irra;onal changes in their thoughts and desires, leading many to believe that human behavior cannot be separated from
human biology. Many people believe that determinism devalues human life as it creates a sense of restric;on, tying us directly to a fate we have no control over.
In response to hard determinism, scien;sts have discovered that there is ‘subatomic indeterminacy’ in the emission of radioac;ve par;cles and electrons jumping from one orbit to another. These occurrences can be predicted with up to a 90% probability but cannot be found to have a cause in the way that a hard determinist would claim that all things have. Although these instances in quantum mechanics do damage the arguments of a hard determinist, they do not salvage the idea of free will. On a larger scale, quantum indeterminacy can be seen as negligible; near determinism claims that the probabilis;c nature of subatomic indeterminacy s;ll translates to hard determinism in the behavior of larger objects. A chemist can be certain that a chemical reac;on will take place between two substances even on a very minute scale because the sum of subatomic indeterminacy between many par;cles only has a ;ny effect on the overall reac;on. Alterna;vely, applica;on of the hard determinist viewpoint to the free will debate itself can be seen to make hard determinism selfrefu;ng. A determinist arriving at the belief that determinism is true would be caused by past events and forces beyond their own control, therefore undermining the use of ra;onality to argue their viewpoint. If thought processes are only manifesta;ons of physical processes and electrical signals in the brain, over which we cannot control, then a person’s beliefs are a necessary effect of the past and so a determinist cannot make the claim that their own beliefs are more ra;onal or grounded in truth than a person who believes in free will; therefore leading to the conclusion that hard determinism is self-refu;ng in nature.
Alterna;vely, other views on the topic include compa;bilism, the view that we can have free will in a determinis;c world, or at the least moral responsibility. Harry Frankfurt is a prominent defender of a compa;bilist view of free will, the claim that free will and determinism are not mutually exclusive but can actually coexist. For this to be true, compa;bilists o^en redefine free will slightly to; the ability to act in accordance with your own mo;va;ons, as opposed to an unrestricted ability to ac t in a way that has no outside influence. This defini;on relies upon the assump;on that we always act as we desire to, therefore allowing us to act as we wish in any situa;on in line with our own values and preferences. However, this defini;on does concede that environmental factors such as our biology and upbringing o^en shape our values and desires, which in turn influence our ac;ons. The key difference between compa;bilism and determinism lies in the strength of the impact that external factors have on us, from influencing our decisions to en;rely defining them. To argue for moral responsibility in a determinis;c world, Frankfurt describes the following case of Black and Jones; Black wants Jones to perform certain ac;ons and is prepared to go to any length to get his way, however, he prefers to only intervene if it is clear to him that Jones is going to do something other than what he wants him to do, otherwise he will not intervene. In the case that Jones decides to perform the ac;ons that Black wanted him to do, without knowing that Black had ever existed, we would conclude that Jones bears the same moral responsibility for what he did as if Black had never existed. Frankfurt’s case exemplifies his belief that determinism can be compa;ble with moral responsibility, in juxtaposi;on to the alterna;ve conclusion that determinism leads to an absence of moral responsibility. On the other hand, some believe Locke to be a compa;bilist as opposed to a determinist, he presents the analogy of the man who wakes up in a room; the room is locked from the outside but he is unaware of this. He chooses to stay in the room, believing that this was a free choice, but in reality he has no op;on but to stay in the room. His ignorance of the fact that the door is locked is the only reason he has an illusion of freedom. Locke applies this analogy to all ac;ons, sta;ng that ignorance of universal causa;on is what creates the false belief in free will. To elaborate, in Locke’s example of the locked room, if we assume there is moral value to his decision, the man would be morally responsible for staying in the room if he never tried to leave, but not if he had
been prevented from leaving because of the locked door. Therefore, his awareness of the locked door defines his moral responsibility for his ac;ons and so the ideas of determinism and free will can be compa;ble in this case. People hold moral responsibility for their ac;ons if they believe in free will, as this is equivalent to the man choosing to remain in the room and never trying to leave.
Returning to the compa;bilist re-defini;on of free will, if the original ‘categorical analysis’ defini;on is correct, then free will is incompa;ble with determinism. French scien;st Pierre-Simon Laplace writes on the thesis of determinism; the present state of the universe can be solely defined as “the effects of its past and the cause of its future”. We can deduce that an intellect capable of compu;ng every force of nature and the posi;on of every object would be able to analyse the movement of every body in future, making the future equally as certain as the past and as easy to predict as observing the current state of the universe. According to this thesis, all possible worlds with the same pasts and laws of nature have the same unchangeable future. Take the example of John; John lives in determinis;c world W and raises his hand at ;me T. Since world W is determinis;c, any possible world W with the same past and laws of nature as world W must have the same future, including John’s decision to raise his hand at ;me T. John lacked the ability to not raise his hand, and as ability to do otherwise is necessary for free will in the categorical analysis defini;on o f free will, we cannot conclude that John’s decision was free. Only a compa;bilist’s own voli;on-based defini;on follows that John was free, he did act as he wanted to act, but that voli;on was en;rely set by the past events and natural laws of world W, so what value does his voli;on have at all? It seems that a compa;bilist’s voli;on-based re-defini;on of free will does not provide a convincing basis for the concept of free will.
A further aspect of the free will vs. determinism debate is the considera;on of which belief is most prac;cal based on the consequences that these beliefs have on our behavior. Psychologists Kathleen Vohs and Jonathan Schooler found that, on a range of measures, “people who are induced to believe less in free will are more likely to behave immorally.” People that read a passage arguing that free will is an illusion were more likely to cheat on a maths test and take more money than they were due. In other studies, it was found that people with a weaker belief in free will were less likely to show up to work on ;me, performed worse at work, were less likely to give money to a homeless person and had poorer academic performance. Diminished belief in free will can even be linked to stress, unhappiness and a lesser commitment to rela;onships. The list goes on: Believing that free will is an illusion has been shown to make people less crea;ve, more likely to conform, less willing to learn from their mistakes, and less grateful towards one another (Cave, 2016). It can certainly be claimed that even if determinism is the ‘real truth’, we must believe in free will as this is the ‘prac;cal truth’ which allows for the best func;on of society and even our own behaviors on a smaller scale.
Philosopher Ted Honderich states that “If we think determinism...is true, what we have to do is try to give up whatever depends on thoughts inconsistent with it. Above all we have to try to accept the defeat of certain desires”, namely the retribu;ve desires that guide much of our system of law. Puni;ve law systems based on consequences for an immoral ac;on no longer seem jus;fied, perhaps instead socie;es should focus on addressing root causes of immoral behavior such as poverty, addic;on and educa;on. If a difficult upbringing is to blame for a person’s immoral ac;ons then we should aim to improve the lives of children universally and not blame a perpetrator for events outside of their control. Preven;on may be the solu;on to determinis;c immorality in the realms of law and even mental health, where retribu;on must be replaced by treatment and compassion.
Honderich accepts that determinism can cause dismay, leading to a sense of insignificance and a lack of direc;on, but perhaps this is simply a harsh reality of the world.
Philosopher Saul Smilansky advocates for something he calls illusionism, underpinned by ‘fundamental dualism’, the idea that free will is indeed an illusion, but one that society must defend. He believes that in the case of free will and determinism, the truth and the good are two separate beliefs, but the good must be chosen for the benefit of society, even calling the truth “dangerous”. His belief applies depth to the free will debate by asking why it is debated at all; if it is in rela;on to moral responsibility then this cornerstone of society must be upheld by any means. Smilansky highlights that determinism may lead to doubts about the moral difference between the guilty and the innocent. He says that our ethical common sense is not ‘built-in’, and so widespread belief in determinism would directly diminish feelings of regret or duty towards moral ac;on and be manifested more deeply in the next genera;ons, possibly leading to irreversible damage to world peace and the func;on of socie;es. Smilansky says “people as a rule ought not to be fully aware of the ul;mate inevitability of what they have done, for this will affect the way in which they hold themselves responsible”. If a person knows that they will not be judged retrospec;vely in future, this directly impacts the responsibility they feel for their ac;ons in the present, and so the true nature of ac;ons should never be fully admiOed. Determinism creates a “cultural climate of guaranteed excuse” which undermines the mo;va;on for success or effort across society. If a person cannot be blamed for their shortcomings or rewarded and praised for their successes, then why bother to aim for success and apply effort to reach it. Not only our jus;ce system but the func;ons of capitalism and industry across the world rely on the principles of free will in order to be effec;ve. Smilansky sees that “if all is determined, everything is permiOed” and so presents his solu;on in the form of illusionism. Smilansky believes that even compa;bilism may descend into unprincipled nihilism on a large scale, and so we must uphold the illusion of libertarian free will and its many benefits. We do not need to induce any new illusory beliefs as humans are lucky to live with a natural sense of free will that does not need to be dismantled.
Neuroscien;st and writer Sam Harris believes that a lack of dis;nc;on between determinism and fatalism creates the sense of helplessness around determinism, similar to the phrase coined by Smilansky the “danger of worthlessness”. Fatalism is the idea that all events are predetermined, leading to a des;ny that we cannot avoid which fatalists generally submit to. Harris asserts that even though our decisions are caused, they s;ll maOer because even though free will is an illusion, our choices and efforts s;ll determine what kind of people we are and what kind of lives we live. Even in a determinis;c world, we observe that submiWng to laziness or a sense of misdirec;on does not fulfill us. Fatalism commits the flaw of resigna;on to causal determinism, in the face of an inevitable future. Instead, determinism does not have to lead to resigna;on or apathy when it comes to moral ac;ons, ra;onality can s;ll be part of the process. A determinist can recognize the fact that their decisions are en;rely governed by forces outside of their control, but s;ll have the thought processes and sense of freedom involved in everyday decisions; for example when geWng up from their own bed in the morning. Symbolically, a fatalist may lie in bed, leWng themself be moved by the inevitable forces of causal determinism, but such forces cannot make decisions for them. This is the dis;nc;on that Sam Harris makes, showing that fatalism is a flawed interpreta;on of our determinis;c reality.
In conclusion, the main debate in the field remains on whether the truth of the issue and the best moral belief are in fact the same. Compa;bilist theories fail to reconcile free will and determinism using the most accurate ‘categorical analysis’ defini;on of free will. They also risk descending into
determinism and the moral issues that come with it, as highlighted by Smilansky and jus;fied through the psychological studies of Vohs, Schooler and Cave. Smilansky’s illusionism is the most realis;c perspec;ve given the weak arguments in favor of free will despite its cri;cal role in many aspects of human life. Humans are fortunate to have an innate sense of free will that should be upheld in the face of determinism in order to ensure the func;on of jus;ce and other pillars of society. In answer to the ques;on, should we be determinists? The view reached a^er holis;c assessment of the evidence at hand is that we should not be determinists, despite the strong appeal it shows.
Bibliography
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Dylan Ladwa
PHILOSOPHY
Dylan Ladwa chose “The Prisoners Dilemma” as his ERP focus due to his fascination with applying game theory to economic principles. This project encapsulated the nature of the dilemma and discussed where it appears in economic situations, concluding the optimal strategy for different agents to optimise their own utility. It challenged the tension between individual rationality and collective welfare, exploring different variations of the initial problem and mathematical models to support the theories discussed. Dylan is studying Economics, Maths, Further Maths and Physics, and wants to pursue Economics at university.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma and its implications on real world situations
In this paper, I will discuss the developments and implications of game theory, notably the prisoner’s dilemma and its practicality and uses in real world problems. I will discuss different types of theories, and show mathematical models to display my findings and argue their utility due to computational weaknesses in their modelling. I will also discuss rationality and how far agents are rational in their decision making, and what the best moves in a game are implement in order to incentivise a specific outcome.
Firstly, I will outline the concept of a game, and the rules needed to satisfy a game:[8]
1. At least 2 agents (people) to play the game
2. Payoffs- The outcomes each player can potentially get depending on how the game unfolds
3. Rules- a set of instructions for which each agent must follow
4. Each agent is a rational decision maker, and aims to maximise their own utility
Even with these clearly defined, there are many different ways in which people can behave, and the question of what constitutes rational decision making becomes more apparent when looking at different scenarios. In this paper “Prisoners Dilemma” has been shortened to “PD”
Dominant Strategy Equilibrium:
In a game any player can have any set of given strategies For example, player A can have the strategies, A B C where A>B>C, and player B can have the strategies D E F where D>E>F. In this case as strategy A is always better than B and C, the player will always choose A and player two will always pick D as they are the strictly dominant strategy. There is a dominant strategy equilibrium when all players play the strictly dominant strategy. [8]
The prisoner’s dilemma:
[3] C D
S,T
A payoff matrix with the following set of inequalities:
T>R>P>S
There are two agents, row and column, who are prisoners from a bank heist They have both been accused of committing a crime, and have two options, either to Defect (D) where they snitch on the other prisoner, or to Cooperate (C), where they keep quiet. If both prisoners choose to Cooperate, then they get a lighter sentence. However , if one prisoner cooperates, and the other does not, then the prisoner who snitched gets off free, but the other prisoner gets a harsher punishment. If both prisoners snitch, then they both get a bad punishmen t, but not as bad as if one snitched and one kept quiet. R is the “Reward” payoff for when they both
cooperate. P is the “Punishment” for when they both Defect T is the “Temptation” that the prisoner receives as a sole defector and S is the “Sucker” payoff that the prisoner receives as sole co-operator. To make this concept more understandable, it’s displayed with the arbitrary quantities below. [6]
[3] C D
C 2,2 -1,3
D 3,-1 0,0
The obvious choice for the prisoners would be for them to both co-operate, as that would guarantee they both receive the “reward” payoff. However, each prisoner cannot guarantee the other would cooperate, as they are both aiming to maximise their own welfare. In this case, if we consider that the Column prisoner has chosen to cooperate, then the Row prisoner is better off defecting and receiving T (or in this case 3). If the Column prisoner decides to defect, then the Row prisoner should also defect and pick P (or 0 in the case) as it is the better option. This is the same if we consider the Row prisoner instead. From this, we can see in whatever situation, the most rational decision would to be to defect, and snitch on the other prisoner. In this case, defecting is the strictly dominant strategy, so therefore them both defecting is the dominant strategy equilibrium. It is this trade off between individual rationality and collective rationality that leads to the Prisoner’s Dilemma. [3]
We can also change these arbitrary values where T≥R>P>S or T>R>P≥S. In this case, D does not strictly dominate, but instead weakly dominates, as each player will do at least as well as the other. [3]
However this symmetry in the matrix does not have to be assumed for defecting to be the strictly dominant strategy.
[3] C D
C Rr,Rc Sr,Tc
D Tr,Sc Pr,Pc
Where:
1. Pda = Tr>Rr and Pr >Sr
2. Pdb = Tc>Rc and Pc >Sc
3. Pdc = Rr>Pr and Rc >Pc
This shows that as long as Ti>Ri>Pi>Si where i = r,c then defecting will always be the strictly dominant strategy. However, the move C,C will always be the most beneficial move for both agents, but you cannot predict the move of the other agent, so it is rational to choose to defect. [8][3]
If we take this scenario further, and instead of prisoners, we call the situation a game, and each turn is a player choosing to defect or to cooperate. We must also acknowledge that each player cannot communicate with each other and have no way of knowing what the other player will choose. In this scenario, we will take the sum of all turns in the game as an absolute payoff for each player. One possible situation from the outcome matrix is shown below in graph form. [3]
If one player always cooperate, they might feel they're being taken advantage of by the other who occasionally defects. So, to protect themselves, players might decide to play different strategies. They'll cooperate sometimes and defect other times, making it harder for the other player to predict
their moves By doing this, players can still gain from cooperation while reducing the risk of being exploited by a consistently selfish opponent. This mixed strategy might seem counterintuitive, but it can lead to better outcomes for both players in certain situations. [6]
A reminder of the Pd’s listed above:
1. Pda = Tr>Rr and Pr >Sr
2. Pdb = Tc>Rc and Pc >Sc
3. Pdc = Rr>Pr and Rc >Pc
[3] [3]
The four outcomes are labelled at each dot. Pda and Pdb ensure that (C,D) and (D,C) are northwest and southeast of (D,D) and Pdc allows (C,C) to lie northeast of (D,D). In this graph shown, we will suppose (D,D) and (C,C) lie on opposite sides of the line between C,D and D,C. All the points form a quadrilateral, and the payoffs of the possible outcomes of different mixed strategies are represented by all the points on or inside of this quadrilateral. An agent can only get one of four possible payoffs each time the game is played, but the points on the graph show the expected values of the payoffs to each of the two agents If Row and Column cooperate with probabilities p and q (and defect with probabilities p∗=1 p and q∗=1 q), then the expected value of the payoff to Row is (p∗ x q x T )+(p x q x R)+(p∗ x q∗ x P)+(p x q∗ x S) This is a sum of all the possible payoff possibilities [3] You can then divide this by 4 to find the average total payoff of two players in a game A rational agent, according to a standard view, should prefer a higher expected payoff to a lower one. In the graph on the left the payoff for universal cooperation is pareto optimal among the payoffs for all mixed strategies.[3]
However, in this scenario, where C,C lies southwest of the line between C,D and D,C Here the payoffs of the possible outcomes lie within a figure bounded on the northeast by three distinct curve segments, two linear and one concave. (C,C) is now in the interior of the region bounded by solid lines, indicating that there are mixed strategies that provide both agents a higher expected payoff than (C,C). This Is a scenario whereby sometimes cooperating and sometimes defecting is the best strategy, as instead of ending up directly on (C,C) players will end up in the small area between the concave line and the lines bounding (C,C) to (C,D) and (D,C) [3]
Implications of the Prisoners Dilemma:
The prisoner’s dilemma shows that when each individual pursues their own self-interest, the outcome is worse than if they had both cooperated. In the examples shown, both agents would do better if they had both cooperated all the time In reality, a rational person who is only interested in getting the maximum benefit (utility) for themselves would generally prefer to defect, rather than cooperate. This also display’s humanity’s innate greed, through taking advantage of an agent who consistently cooperates. This dilemma, where the incentive to defect is so strong even though cooperation may yield the best results for both agents, is seen in numerous ways in business and the economy, which I will now discuss. [1]
If instead of prisoners, we consider oil companies within a market, and show the possible outcomes with the same example matrix used earlier, where Row is an oil company, and column is an oil company. Subscript represents the price. [8]
[3] Clow Dhigh Clow 2,2 -1,3 Dhigh 3,-1 0,0
In this scenario, if both set a high price, then they will both get that high price. But each has an incentive to set a low price, so that they receive the Temptation (T) of 3 and the other company will receive the Sucker (S) of -1, and will capture the entire market for oil. So the dominant equilibrium outcome is for both companies to set a low price. This concept can also be used in real life situations through aiding decision making. [3]
For example, if you were buying a car in a dealership The utility from buying the car in this case, is a non-numerical attribute ( is satisfaction with the deal). As a buyer you aim to get the best possible deal in terms of price, car features, while the car salesman aims to sell the car highest possible price to maximize his commission, and therefore his own utility. In this scenario, Cooperation is buying the car at its face value price, and Defecting means bargaining for a better price. The buyer aims for a lower price, whereas the seller aims for the highest price. In the payoff matrix below, each number represents satisfaction from 0-10, where 10 is the maximum satisfaction possible. [3]
[3] CSalesman DSalesman
This shows, that if you drive a bargain by the salesman (defect), while he agrees and lowers the price (cooperates), then you receive a lot of satisfaction (10) while the salesman gains (0) and is unhappy he has lost commission. The vice versa is true if the salesman decides to set a high price and you cooperate. The salesman will feel satisfied, while you will be left unsatisfied. If you both cooperate and you walk in and buy at face value, and the salesman sells you at that price, you are both satisfied to some extent but not fully. This is because as a buyer you will question whether you could have bargained and gained a better price, and as a seller you question whether you could’ve offered a better model at a higher price, or added another package to gain more commission. If you both defect, then this leaves you both unsatisfied, since prolonged haggling on the price will lead to unsatisfaction from both parties. This however is no different to the matrixes shown previously, and because it will be uncertain what the other agent will choose, defecting is the best solution, even though both cooperating will lead to higher satisfaction for both agents. [3]
Prisoner’s dilemma in an Economic setting:
Macroeconomic fiscal actions of the government during a recession provide an example of the prisoner's dilemma. Individual governments can choose to enact expansionary fiscal policies in order to boost economic growth during economic recessions. However, the actions of other countries throughout the world will determine how effective these policies are. [6]
The world economy would gain from higher aggregate demand if all nations decided to implement expansionary fiscal policies at the same time, potentially aiding the economy into recovery. One nation may decide on short-term economic stability if it chooses to take a more conservative fiscal stance and concentrates on budget cuts or austerity measures. This is because those who have expansionary fiscal policies will suffer from higher inflation, leading to increased costs, whereas the country that takes a more conservative approach will be able to enjoy the benefits of lower inflation, and lower costs, boosting it’s own economy greatly. However, other nations who choose to collaborate may suffer as a result of the worldwide effect. [10]
This is a larger scale of the prisoner's dilemma, where all the governments have to choose between cooperating by enacting expansionary policies as a group or breaking away by adopting more conservative measures and acting selfishly. Cooperation among all nations can speed up the world economy's recovery. The recovery of all other countries will be damaged, leading to a less than ideal outcome for the group as a whole, if one or more defect and seek the greatest amount of personal benefit. [6][10]
Tragedy Of The Commons:
The tragedy of the commons is a well known economic problem, which states that a public good will be abused by individuals, leading to its depletion. This is due to individuals acting independently according to their own self interest, and this depletion then causes harm to the entire group. This happens because the benefits of exploiting the resource are enjoyed by individuals, whereas the costs are distributed to all those in the group. The prisoners dilemma can be used here to describe how this outcome comes about. [12]
This can be described in another payoff matrix, where there is a social benefit B that each member can achieve if sufficiently many pay a cost of C.
[3] more then n choose C n or fewer choose C C C+B C D B 0
Where Cost C<0
And B> (B+C) > 0 > C [3]
In this situation, the “temptation” is to get the B without having to pay the cost C. The “ reward” is to get the benefit with the cost. The punishment is to get neither, and the sucker is to get the cost without the benefit. In this scenario choosing to Defect strongly dominates C for all agent , so rational agents would choose D to receive 0, while the preferable option is that everyone chooses C and obtains C + B. [14]
Nash equilibrium:
To properly describe the later sections, a definition of nash equilibrium must be acknowledged. A nash equilibrium forms when as a collective group, everyone’s strategy is already the optimal strategy for themselves, and changing that strategy would have no positive affect, as long as everyone else continues to keep their strategies the same. In this way it is a stable system, where no agents can gain through a unilateral change of strategy if the other agents keep their strategies the same. [11]
Using this definition, all the matrixes shown form a Nash equilibrium of defecting, where no participants have any incentive to unilaterally change their strategy, as it will only affect them negatively. This stable state underscores the challenge of reaching optimal cooperation due to the self-interest of the participants, displaying the tensions between individual and collective rationality. The nash equilibrium will always produce the pareto efficient outcome. [11][3]
Multiple Moves with Optional Pd:
A PD could be described as a game or situation, where a “cooperative” outcome is only possible when every player acts against their own self interest. If each player acts selfishly, following their own personal interest, then they would end up worse off than if they had cooperated. [4][19]
Now suppose there is an additional possible move N which is to choose “neither” option. The new matrix would look something like this. [4]
C D N
C R,R S,T O,O
D T,S P,P O,O N O,O O,O O,O
Where Payoffs are ordered as before O is a new payoff of “Opt-out value” where P>O>R
[3]
In this scenario, there is no longer a dominant move that either player can make, and so mutual defection is no longer an equilibrium. This is because, for example, if Column cooperates, Row’s best move is to defect. However, if Column defects, Row does best by playing N, and if Column plays N, then Row does equally good regardless of the move picked. The outcome of (D,D) or mutual defection is not pareto optimal, as either player will benefit unilaterally from switching to N. However, from the outcome of (N,N) or mutual N, no player can benefit by unilaterally changing their move. Orbell and Dawes suggest that the additional O value is equal to zero. This leads to an Optional PD, as players have the option to not partake in the game at all. In an Optional PD, a rational player will only engage if they expect their opponent to cooperate. If the opponent does cooperate, then they are guaranteed at least R and O by not engaged, whereas if their opponent does not cooperate, they will be guaranteed at most P, by engaging and exactly O by not engaging.
This is particularly important when using Orbell and Dawes model, as engaging is positive if and only if the opponent chooses to cooperate. [4][18][20]
However, the option “Neither” and “opt out” value has been loosely defined at this point, and can vary in these situations. Philip Kitcher suggest that Neither suggests a choice to “go solo”. It may also represent a choice to “ sit out” the game, to potentially find a better partner with which to play the game. This also suggests that a “cooperative” outcome can be achieved if agents are able to select which partners they interact with. [4][19]
Orbell and Dawes also comment on the nature of cooperative and defective behaviour, and how individuals base their expectations of others from their own tendencies. This hypothesis suggest that a cooperate is more likely than a defector to expect other to cooperate, and therefore, if the player is rational ,will be more likely to engage in the optional PD than sit out. Orbell and Dawes demonstrated that, if the a cooperator is substantially more likely than a defector to expect the opponent to cooperate, then ( given that the odds of the opponent cooperating a relatively high ), a cooperator can expect a higher return than a defector in the Optional PD scenario. [18]
Asynchronous Moves And Trust based moves:
An obvious problem that arises is the reality of these PD’s previously mentioned due to players being able to plan their moves in real life scenarios, so I will now discuss if planning moves changes the dominant strategy equilibrium. For example, Peter Danielson[2] argues that the best strategy is one of reciprocal cooperation, whereby if the other player would cooperate if you cooperate and would defect if you don’t then you should cooperate, but otherwise defect. In the strategies listed before, conditional strategies like this have been ruled out as possible iterations of the game, but these are more accurate models in real world situation. These situations are described as where one agent has to choose a move ( cooperate or defect ) after the other agent has made a similar choice. This game can be labelled as an asynchronous/extended PD. [2]
This problem is sometimes referred to as the “farmers dilemma” due to a famous quote by David Hume where he states
“Your corn is ripe today; mine will be so tomorrow. ’Tis profitable for us both, that I shou'd labour with you to-day, and that you shou'd aid me to-morrow. I have no kindness for you, and know you have as little for me.” [9]
He then goes on to say that he would not take pains on the other farmer’s account and if they shall both choose to labour alone, they will both lose harvests in return for mutual confidence and security. This quote describes the nature of the interaction, in that it might benefit both parties, but is not done out of kindness, rather for personal gain. From this we can deduce the following tree diagram. [7][9]
Where time is flowing from left to right. [3]
Where square node is player one’s moves and circles are player two’s moves
The moves and payoffs in this diagram are the same as the ordinary PD, but in this situation player 2 can choose their move after player 1 has played their move. This diagram is described to be extensive form game representation, where the previous matrixes are normal form game representations. However, from looking at Hume’s quote, we can see that making the game asynchronous does not remove the dilemma. This is because, Player one knows if they were to choose to cooperate, then Player two would choose to defe ct in order to get the Temptation reward, leaving him with the Sucker payoff. If Player one chooses D, Player two will still choose D, as they will prefer to get the Punishment than the Sucker as P>S. This results in both players choosing to defer regardless, and so the dominant strategy equilibrium is still to defer. However, this is assuming that Player Two is aware of Player One’s move, and this may not always be the case, so instead we can describe the possible outcomes in this finite iteration. [7][9][15][17]
In this scenario, Player One is choosing between Cooperate (C) and Defect (D), and Player two is choosing between four different moves, of cooperating unconditionally(Cu), defect unconditionally(Du), imitate Player One’s move(I) and playing the opposite of playing the opposite of Player One’s move(O). The result is the following matrix. [3]
Cu Du I O
C R,R S,T R,R S,T
D T,S P,P P,P T,S
By using this we can see that a weak Nash equilibrium is formed when Player one chooses D and player two chooses Du, therefore achieving for both of them the inferior payoffs of mutual P. This shows there is no dominant strategy for either player and no matter what, rational, utility maximising players will conclude to a Nash equilibrium regardless of if there a dominant move. However, it could be argued that there is an unfair advantage on either player as this situation is turn based, so going first or second may be advantageous to players. So to mitigate this advantage, each player must choose a first move and a second move, in the form (X,X) where X is a possible move. Then an fair coin flip decides who moves first, and the outcome is computed in the appropriate way. Suppose Row plays (D,O) and column plays (C,Du). If Row wins the coin flip and goes first then he plays D, and Column plays Du, meaning Row receives P, and if Row loses, then Column plays C first and Row plays O second, meaning Row receives T. This implies that the expected payoff of row in this scenario is ½(P+T). Using this logic, Columns expected payoff is ½(P+S). If you extend this and calculate the expected payoffs off every possible outcome, the same result is still seen that there is a Dominant strategy equilibrium formed from the strategy of (D,Du), where both players achieve the inferior payoffs of (P,P). [7][9][3]
Applications of Asynchronous moves:
The price setting for duopolistic firms can be modelled using the logic from asynchronous moves mentioned previously, using a longer version of the game where there is multiple PD’s at different
stages. Players who defect in a round can be punished by other defections in later rounds, and those who cooperate can be rewarded in later rounds from cooperation as well. Due to this extended PD, the dominant strategy is no longer obvious. [16]
[3]
This New PD is structured in the tree diagram format like before, where the total payoffs of either player is listed at the end of each branch. There are two rounds to this PD, each being separated by the dotted line. Following any combination of moves in each game, you can find all possible respective payoffs at the end of each branch. Like beforehand, this can also be written in matrix form, if we assign a referee to choose who moves first at random[13], however the number of strategies will exponentially increase with longer games, so this is only practical for short PDs. However, players cannot be certain when the opponent will defect or cooperate, and Du is only the best move if the opponent defects, and there is no way to predict whether the opponent will cooperate, and just because they had cooperated in the past does not give good reason for them to do so again. A regular nash equilibrium only states that the two strategies are the best with each other , not with other games in this extended PD. So a better description in this scenario would be to take that they were only the best replies no matter what game branch was picked. This is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, and it states that the pair of strategies is the Nash equilibrium for every subgame within the whole game. Given this we can work backward, and suppose a game lasts
n rounds. At node n-1 it is a regular PD, so the dominant strategy is to defect. At node n-2, both players know the other will defect in the next round, so should defect again in that round[3]. This can be repeated, and it is clear that defection at every node in the subgame is the best response, so this must be the subgame-perfect equilibria. Using this we can see that in a duopolistic firm setting, firms will be forced to lower their prices, no matter the length of the “game”, and that due to the knowledge that they will eventually lower prices on the last move/at some point in the game (defect) it is only rational to defect from the beginning, and lower prices to prevent the other firm capturing the entire market. [3][15][16]
It can be noted that throughout, the optimal strategy mostly has been to defect, no matter the length of the game or the number of moves. The only scenario where defecting is not optimal, is when there is an option to opt out, and in which you can choose a more suitable partner who will cooperate. However, realistically this will not be possible in the many scenarios in which PD occurs in reality, where a move must be made. Due to the selfish nature of the agents in each game, rationally they must defect in order to protect themselves, and to gain the most from their opponent. This analysis of dominant strategies can be used by competitive firms in their pricing, between buyers and sellers, and in macroeconomic settings in government and agendas between countries, showing that PD is ever-present in the world, and is a useful tool for economists to use to decide what the best move to make is in any given scenario.
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Kitcher, P. (1993). The Evolution of Human Altruism. The Journal of Philosophy, 90(10), p.497. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/2941024.[4]
Rapoport, A. and Chammah, A.M. (1965). Prisoner’s Dilemma: A Study in Conflict and Cooperation. [online] Google Books. University of Michigan Press. Available at: https://books.google.co.uk/books?hl=en&lr=&id=yPtNnKjXaj4C&oi=fnd&pg=PA3&dq=papers+on+pri soners+dilemma&ots=g4x8OcS-1p&sig=-2OgoSlpvDFAKezLQZR7h3HrC1M#v=onepage&q&f=false [Accessed 29 Mar. 2024].[5]
Picardo, E. (n.d.). The Prisoner’s Dilemma in Business and the Economy. [online] Investopedia. Available at: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/110513/utilizing -prisoners-dilemmabusiness-and-economy.asp#:~:text=A%20prisoner%27s%20dilemma%20describes%20a [6]
Vanderschraaf, P. (1998). The Informal Game Theory in Hume’s Account of Convention. Economics and Philosophy, 14(2), pp.215–247. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266267100003849.[7]
Intro to Game Theory and the Dominant Strategy Equilibrium. (2013). YouTube. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y1WpytiHKE.[8]
Skyrms, B. (2004). The Stag Hunt and the Evolution of Social Structure. [online] Google Books. Cambridge University Press. Available at: https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_Stag_Hunt_and_the_Evolution_of_Socia/JykQZ9wkcAC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=skyrms&printsec=frontcover [Accessed 3 Jun. 2024].[9]
Dixit, A. and Nalebuff, B. (2019). Prisoners’ Dilemma - Econlib. [online] Econlib. Available at: https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PrisonersDilemma.html . [10]
Chen, J. (2021). Nash Equilibrium. [online] Investopedia. Available at: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nash -equilibrium.asp. [11]
INOMICS. (n.d.). Tragedy of the Commons. [online] Available at: https://inomics.com/terms/tragedycommons1531091#:~:text=The%20Tragedy%20of%20the%20Commons%20is%20similar%20to%20the%20Pris oner. [12]
Axelrod, R. (1984). The Evolution of Cooperation. [online] Available at: https://ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/Breakthrough/book/pdfs/axelrod.pdf [13]
Hardin, G. (1968). The Tragedy of the Commons. Source: Science, New Series, [online] 162(3859), pp.1243–1248. Available at: https://pages.mtu.edu/~asmayer/rural_sustain/governance/Hardin%201968.pdf . [14]
Joyce, B., Dickhaut, J. and McCabe, K. (1995). Trust, Reciprocity, and Social History. Games and Economic Behavior, [online] 10(1), pp.122–142. Available at: https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeegamebe/v_3a10_3ay_3a1995_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a122142.htm [Accessed 9 Jun. 2024]. [15]
Stanford Graduate School of Business. (2019). Corporate Culture and Economic Theory. [online] Available at: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/corporate-cultureeconomic-theory [16]
Bicchieri, C. and Sontuoso, A. (2015). I cannot cheat on you after we talk. [online] Cambridge University Press. Available at: https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/prisoners -dilemma/icannot-cheat-on-you-after-we-talk/834CC46DF25B506267CE7F0A1D8096E7 [Accessed 9 Jun. 2024]. [17]
Orbell, J.M. and Dawes, R.M. (1993). Social Welfare, Cooperators’ Advantage, and the Option of Not Playing the Game. American Sociological Review, 58(6), p.787. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/2095951. [18]
brill.com. (2015). Scientific Realism and Democratic Society: The Philosophy of Philip Kitcher. [online] Available at: https://brill.com/display/title/30452 [Accessed 9 Jun. 2024]. [19]
Szabó, G. and Hauert, C. (2002). Evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma games with voluntary participation. Physical Review E, 66(6). doi:https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.66.062903. [20]
William Mace
POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
William Mace chose the history of economic weapons as the subject of his ERP because of his combined interest in History and Economics, both of which he studies at A Level. The project explored the historical utility of economic weapons with reference to conflicts in the 20th century, such as the World Wars and the Gulf War. William wants to study History at university.
Economic weapons - to what extent have they historically been useful in the face of military ac8on or threats?
Economic weapons have been an important foreign policy tool for centuries. They involve the use of financial or commercial measures to achieve a desired outcome, and can include suspension of trade or financial transac<ons, blockades, freezing of foreign assets and travel bans. The purpose of economic weapons can be seen as threefold (Giumelli, 2011, p.34): coercion (deterring a state from par<cular ac<on, or to compel changes in its behaviour); signalling (indica<ng disapproval of a state’s conduct); and constraining (restric<ng a state’s capability to pursue a course of ac<on). Economic sanc<ons have frequently been used for the first two purposes and applied for reasons other than responding to military ac<on by the target state. Examples include European Union sanc<ons against Turkey in 1995 to improve human rights, UN sanc<ons against Libya from 1992 to 2003 to secure the extradi<on of the Lockerbie bombing suspects, and various European sanc<ons in the 1990s against Togo, Equatorial Guinea, Algeria and Cameroon to promote democracy. However, economic weapons have also been used in the face of military aggression to signal disapproval of the aggressor’s ac<ons, to coerce a change of policy, or to limit its choices. In this essay, I will evaluate the u<lity of economic weapons in the face of such military ac<on or threats.
The first recorded use of economic sanc<ons is Pericles’ Megarian decree in 432 BC. In response to the aXempted seizing of territory and kidnapping, the Athenian empire banned Megarians from trading within its empire, with severe consequences for the Megarian economy. In the early nineteenth century, economic weapons were deployed in the Napoleonic Wars by both Britain and France. Britain’s objec<ve was to contain France’s economic expansion and France’s objec<ve was to deprive Britain of grain. Later, during the American Civil War, the more industrially advanced North used blockades against the Confederate South to deplete its figh<ng capability. However, it was during the First World War that a significant change can be observed in the use of economic weapons in the face of military aggression, par<cularly the naval blockades deployed by Britain against Germany. The scale and horrors of the Great War convinced statesmen of the <me that sanc<ons would also be an effec<ve deterrent against future military ac<on. Woodrow Wilson, the U.S. President during, and in the a^ermath of, the First World War, described sanc<ons as “something more tremendous than war” and that “a na2on that is boyco6ed is a na2on that is in sight of surrender. Apply this economic, peaceful, silent, deadly remedy and there will be no need for force” (Wilson, 1923, p.71). This was not an isolated view and its prevalence resulted in the use of economic sanc<ons being enshrined in Ar<cle 16 of the Covenant of the League of Na<ons. The founders of the League were confident of the effec<veness of economic measures as a tool to forever address military aggression, but events since the First World War, such as the Italian invasion of Abyssinia in 1935 through to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are evidence that their confidence in the effec<veness of sanc<ons was too great.
One of the defining works on economic sanc<ons is the comprehensive analysis of their use in the twen<eth century, by Hucauer, SchoX, EllioX, and Oegg. Whilst their analysis concludes that sanc<ons have only had a 33% success rate in the studied period, I believe there are grounds to ques<on whether this assessment is fair. The Hucauer et al study, like much of the academic research on economic weapons, evaluates their effec<veness from a binary “success -failure” viewpoint. This, however, fails to account for some of the underlying nuances of the topic. For example, for reasons such as poli<cal expediency or if military ac<on is not feasible, economic weapons may be the most, or only, viable op<on available to a state in certain situa<ons. Effec<veness and u<lity are different, and the tendency to simply consider the effec<veness of economic weapons in achieving their core objec<ves has led to their dismissal by many academics and, some<mes, the failure to recognise the
many situa<ons in which economic weapons can be, and have been, useful. Therefore, in this essay, I will challenge the dominant view that sanc<ons have, throughout history, had limited u<lity as a foreign policy tool.
The u<lity of economic weapons is par<ally dependent on their effec<veness, and so it is important to first consider whether the viewpoint of Hucauer, SchoX, EllioX and Oegg and others (that economic weapons have been historically ineffec<ve) is actually accurate, which necessitates analysing the circumstances in which economic weapons have succeeded and failed, and why. It is evident for both major and minor conflicts that economic weapons are most potent when they quickly and comprehensively remove the target’s access to crucial resources. The imposi<on of economic sanc<ons on Germany by Britain during the First World War is a prime example. At that <me, the City of London financed 60% of world trade and Britain had the world’s largest merchant m arine, carrying over half of the world’s seaborne trade. Furthermore, two thirds of global mari<me insurance was placed through Britain and its coal resources made it the world’s foremost energy exporter (Mulder,2022,p.33). Therefore, Britain’s global economic influence, and powerful navy, gave it a unique ability to implement an effec<ve blockade of Germany, whose ci<zens suffered hunger and illness because of depriva<ons the blockade caused. There were hundreds of thousands of deaths from malnutri<on by 1918. Whilst the blockade was only one factor in the Allies’ victory, it impacted Germany’s ability to fight, not only in terms of soldiers, but also the manufacture of military equipment and non-military produc<on that supported the war effort. Equally importantly, it also severely damaged German morale. The impact of economic weapons in this conflict was significant, contribu<ng to Germany agreeing to an armis<ce even though there was no Allied presence in Germany. Addi<onally, in the Second World War, where more comprehensive, mul<lateral sanc<ons were imposed, they yielded tangible results for the Allies. Unlike in the First World War, the United States quickly became involved in the economic effort, in response to Hitler’s sweep across Western Europe in 1940. U.S. sanc<ons, cujng oil supplies to Spain, were influen<al in preven<ng Spain joining the war on the Axis side and ended Spanish exports of tungsten ore to Germany in August 1944, and so were demonstrably effec<ve. These examples highlight how, when the sender state controls substan<al economic resources, it can severely restrict the target’s access to vital resources and significantly damage the target’s economy and morale. In such circumstances, economic weapons can be, and have been, highly effec<ve in the face of military ac<on, evidencing that they can be extremely useful in major conflicts.
Throughout history the effec<veness of economic weapons in the face of military ac<on has, however, been severely limited where they have not been comprehensively and rapidly applied. For instance, at the outset of the First World War, Britain did not operate a full blockade, but rather an ineffec<ve scheme of contraband control, using inspec<ons to iden<fy prohibited goods des<ned for the enemy. Only when it was realized that large amounts of trade to neutral countries was ul<mately des<ned for Germany, was a total blockade implemented. The delay in implemen<ng a full blockade gave the German economy greater opportunity to mi<gate its impacts. For example, the German steel industry did not have the domes<c supplies of manganese necessary to sustain war<me steel produc<on (65% of the global manganese supply came from Russia, with 25% from Bri<sh -controlled India, and the remaining 10% from Spain and Brazil) (Mulder, 2022, p.30). German steel manufacturing, however, adapted by producing lower quality steel. More widely, civilian uses of metals, as well as chemicals and fuels were reduced. Britain had hoped the blockade would cause the German economy, and Germany’s figh<ng ability, to quickly collapse. However, it transpired that many items previously considered essen<al had numerous non-essen<al (civilian) uses, which could be radically scaled back (Harrison, 2023, p.7). Because of this economic adapta<on, it was some <me before the blockade’s impact filtered down to materially impact Germany’s figh<ng capability. Hence,
the incompleteness of the ini<al blockade significantly reduced its effec<veness and enabled Germany to con<nue the war far longer than it may have otherwise been able to. Similar failures can be observed in the Second World War, when Britain again imposed a naval blockade on Germany. Like the blockade in the First World War, it was ini<ally rela<vely ineffec<ve because several countries such as Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and Spain remained neutral, ac<ng as conduits for supplies to Germany. Therefore, difficul<es in u<lising genuinely comprehensive economic weapons during the Second World War indicates that their effec<veness during such major conflicts may be limited.
The importance of sanc<ons being mul<lateral and comprehensive, and their tendency to fail when they are not, is also evidenced beyond the two World Wars, perhaps most prominently by the failure of League of Na<ons sanc<ons to end the invasion of Abyssinia by Italy in October 1935. In 1935, Italy imported 93.2% of its crude oil (Ristuccia, 1997, p.96). Hence, a ban on oil shipments to Italy would likely have been one of the only ways to deter the Italian dictator Benito Mussolini from con<nuing the invasion because of Italy’s dependence on oil imports. Such sanc<ons, however, were not implemented as it was concluded they would be ineffec<ve because the world’s largest oil exporter, the U.S., was not a member of the League and would not have par<cipated in this ban. A similar trend can be observed in the context of nuclear non-prolifera<on. In 1978, as part of its nuclear non-prolifera<on policy, the U.S. imposed sanc<ons on India and in 1979, on Pakistan, prohibi<ng shipments of nuclear fuel and technology to those countries. These sanc<ons did not prevent either country from building nuclear weapons, as other states were willing to supply the sanc<oned items, rendering unilateral U.S. sanc<ons ineffec<ve. In this context, the fact that the U.S. was the most powerful global economic power was of liXle consequence. Further, the effec<veness of economic weapons has been limited where so-called “black knights”(defined by Hucauer, et al as states that u<lise their resources to protect a target state from the effects of sanc<ons) have been able to supply the blockaded resources to the target state, such as the cumula<ve US$65 billion of subsidies provided to Cuba by the USSR between 1960 and 1990, which enabled Cuba to withstand a decades-long trade embargo imposed by the U.S. (Mesa-Logo, 2019). Given the frequency with which the presence of “black knights” has been observed in cases regarding the implementa<on of economic weapons, this phenomenon would be an o^en-insurmountable hurdle for the states implemen<ng them.
Furthermore, the efficacy of economic weapons throughout history has been repeatedly undermined by the fact that, in some cases, the benefits of non-compliance have been, or at least perceived by the target state to be, greater than the nega<ve impacts. For example, in August 1990, the United Na<ons imposed sanc<ons on Iraq, under the control of Saddam Hussein, in retalia<on for Iraq invading Kuwait. These sanc<ons, despite causing Iraq’s gross domes<c product (GDP) to decrease from approximately US$180 billion in 1990 to approximately US$400 million in 1991 (per the World Bank), failed to end the Iraqi occupa<on. Oil revenue was approximately 56% of Iraqi GDP in 1980 (Alnasrawi, 2000). Hussein believed that, if he maintained control over Kuwait, Iraqi oil output could have increased by around 50% (Andrews, 2023). Addi<onally, Iraq owed Kuwait a debt of US$14 billion Kuwait following the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran war. Whilst the short-term impacts of the sanc<ons-driven decline in Iraqi GDP had a devasta<ng impact, the forced cancella<on of the debt, combined with the fact that controlling Kuwait could have made Iraq the dominant oil exporter in the Middle East, provided significant economic reasons for Hussein to believe that the posi<ves of non -compliance outweighed the nega<ves. Consequently, the U.S. and a coali<on of United Na<ons member states were compelled to use military force to liberate Kuwait. Addi<onally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 provoked the imposi<on of wide-ranging economic sanc<ons by many countries. The threat of sanc<ons did not deter Russia from proceeding with the invasion and they have not, so far, encouraged it to withdraw or seek a peaceful solu<on. Even though in 2022, the Russian economy
contracted by 2.1%1, the perceived benefits to Russia of controlling Ukraine, and factors mi<ga<ng the impact of sanc<ons, such as Russian companies acquiring the Russian-based assets of foreign firms that have withdrawn from the country, have meant that so far sanc<ons have been ineffec<ve. The frequency of economic situa<ons like those described above, combined with the poli<cal benefits that na<onalist and expansionist regimes o^en derive from aggression, has meant that economic weapons have frequently failed to deter states from military ac<on and could therefore be interpreted as ineffec<ve in such a context.
There have been occasional instances where friendly rela<ons between the sender and the target have caused a state, which otherwise could perhaps have weathered the impacts of noncompliance, to change its policies as a result of the imposi<on of sanc<ons. For example, in 1956, in response to the Anglo-French invasion of Egypt and the occupa<on of the Suez region, the United States, an ally of all three protagonists in the dispute (Britain, France, and Israel) refused Britain’s requests to delay war loan repayments and influenced the Interna<onal Monetary Fund to not provide Britain with a loan. The Second World War had severely damaged the Bri<sh economy and it was enduring a domes<c financial crisis, but it was not economically weak. However, its reluctance to damage its long-term rela<onship with the U.S. and jeopardise its economic support prompted Britain to withdraw from Egypt. Cordial rela<onships have, therefore, some<mes provided the backdrop for economic weapons to be effec<ve. Such situa<ons, however, are rare and in most cases sanc<ons are imposed against states with which such cordial rela<onships do not exist, as was the case in both World Wars, the Gulf War, and with Cuba. This is further reinforced by the fact that during many conflicts, either due to the presence of a “black knight” (for example, the USSR in providing aid to Cuba), or because of a lack of economic or military dominance on the part of the sender (as, for instance, was experienced by Britain to a certain extent whilst trying to wage economic warfare against Germany during the early part of the Second World War), countries are unable to wield the necessary economic power to implement effec<ve sanc<ons.
Ul<mately, it has o^en been extremely challenging for sender states to overcome the limita<ons of economic weapons. This is because of the difficulty of consistently imposing comprehensive sanc<ons, due to the neutrality of na<ons such as the U.S. during the Abyssinian crisis, and Sweden and Switzerland during the Second World War, and the difficultly experienced by many senders in exer<ng the economic superiority required for effec<ve economic warfare, especially when states are frequently incen<vised against complying. Consequently, economic weapons have failed to prevent some of the worst conflicts of the 20th and 21st centuries, including both World Wars, the Gulf War, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and so, economic weapons have, in terms of achieving their core objec<ve of avoiding military ac<on, o^en been ineffec<ve. The dream of the founders of the League of Na<ons has not been realised. As such, it is easy to understand why Hucauer et al concluded that economic sanc<ons have been ineffec<ve. Yet, whilst based on a pure “success-failure” metric, it is hard to refute the claims of these academics, it is worth reconsidering whether their findings suggest that economic weapons suffer from a general lack of u<lity. To do this, we must analyse two key ques<ons: whether military ac<on has always been a viable alterna<ve to economic weapons, and whether economic weapons have resulted in posi<ve impacts for the sender state, even where its core policy objec<ve has not been achieved.
The first reason why military ac<on may not be a viable alterna<ve to economic weapons is because military ac<on may simply not be feasible. For example, in the Second World War, a military incursion into Germany was not an op<on for Britain from June 1940, when the Bri<sh Expedi<onary
Force had fully evacuated France, un<l the U.S. entered the war in December 1941. Therefore, for a significant period, economic weapons were one of the few means available to Britain to meaningfully damage Germany. Furthermore, military ac<on can carry the risk of a conflict escala<ng, which has, for instance, deterred Western states from military interven<on in Ukraine. Addi<onally, even where military ac<on is feasible, it may s<ll not be desired by the user of economic weapons, as can be observed with the American pursuit of nuclear non-prolifera<on during the Cold War. In 1975, South Korea abandoned plans to acquire a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant because of U.S. threats of sanc<ons. Whilst the U.S. could have launched a military assault on South Korea with a high probability of success (at that point, the South Korean economy was largely agrarian, with a GDP per capita, in 2011 interna<onal dollars, of only $4,362)2, the U.S. had strong reasons not to pursue this. The 1953 Mutual Defence Treaty established the U.S. and South Korea as allies and South Korea was an important buffer against communist North Korean expansion. Military ac<on would likewise have been poli<cally inexpedient in a similar situa<on with Taiwan in 1976, as damaging Taiwan could have strengthened Communist China. Therefore, economic weapons have proven useful where military ac<on is unfeasible or inexpedient. Such a situa<on has been extremely common throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, and consequently, it would seem that economic weapons do in fact possess a significant degree of u<lity insofar as they have o^en been the most effec<ve op<on a state has been able to use.
It is also important to consider the u<lity of economic weapons aside from simple “successfailure” metrics because these can fail to account for aXri<onal impacts of economic weapons. These aXri<onal impacts have frequently been very influen<al. For instance, whilst the Bri<sh naval blockade of Germany during the First World War did not result in the immediate, or even swi^, capitula<on of Germany, it was nevertheless extremely damaging to the German war effort. The cumula<ve impacts of famine on the German popula<on and reduced access to resources significantly reduced German industrial produc<on. Es<mates have placed German na<onal income in 1918 as being between 57% (according to Roesler) and 88% (according to Henning) of 1913 levels (Holqrerich, 1990 cited in Ritschl, 2005). The impacts of economic weapons were influen<al in promp<ng Germany to agree to the armis<ce, especially as the resul<ng famine and economic problems were causes of the 1918 German revolu<on and the abdica<on of Kaiser Wilhelm II. The aXri<onal impacts of economic weapons can also be observed in the use of another “weapon”, namely the strategic provision of economic aid. The most prominent example of this is the United States’ Lend Lease Act of 1941, by which the United States supplied Britain, France, the Soviet Union, and other allies with food, oil, and weapons. This was crucial to the outcome of the Second World War. For example, Hitler’s decision to invade the Soviet Union and fight a war on the Eastern Front stretched the German figh<ng machine to, and ul<mately beyond, its limit. Figh<ng on the Eastern Front was bloody and extensive. Much of the Soviet Union’s figh<ng ability was supported by Lend-Lease aid. By the end of the War, it represented over 400,000 vehicles, 2.6 million tons of oil and 53% of Soviet heavy ordnance ammuni<on produc<on (Mulder, 2022, p281). Hence, the usage of a form of economic warfare in Lend Lease had significant impacts on the Allied war effort and, in this way, was an extremely useful policy tool for the U.S., especially as the U.S. con<nued to refrain from military interven<on at that stage of the war. Therefore, even where economic weapons may have failed to be the decisive factor in an outcome such as the swi^ surrender of the target state, they have o^en resulted in aXri<onal impacts that have benefited the sender state in the longer term, par<cularly when combined with other measures, and, in the face of prolonged conflicts, this has made them, at <mes, invaluable.
In making an ul<mate assessment of the u<lity of economic weapons in the face of military ac<on, however, the poten<ally detrimental impacts on the state using these weapons should also be considered. One such impact is that, in the short term, they may increase the target’s aggression towards the sender, for example as was exhibited by Japan towards the U.S. during the Second World War. In December 1940, U.S. restric<ons on exports of iron ore, hydraulic pumps and lubrica<on oil to Japan came into effect. Further restric<ons were implemented by Bri<an and the Netherlands. By August 1941, Japan was becoming increasingly economically isolated. Faced with U.S. economic sanc<ons, which would have slowly ground it down, rather than abandoning its expansionist plans, Japan doubled down and launched an aXack against the United States at Pearl Harbor. This was intended to cripple the U.S. Pacific fleet and thereby remove a threat to its expansionist plans in Asia. In the words of Admiral Osami Nagano, Chief of the Naval General Staff, “because our supplies are gradually diminishing, if we are going to fight, I think the sooner we do, the be6er” (cited in Kawamura, 2007). This dragged the United States into the conflict. Hence, the u<lity of economic weapons as an alterna<ve to military ac<on has the poten<al to be limited if it forces the sender into a conflict. In the long-run, nega<ve consequences for the sender may also be observed, par<cularly if the sanc<ons cause an increase in na<onalism in the target state and increase the morale and resilience of the civilian popula<on. For example, the imposi<on of sanc<ons on Italy in response to the Italian invasion of Abyssinia had the nega<ve effect of s<ffening na<onalist resolve in Italy. Beni to Mussolini said: “To sanc2ons of an economic character we will reply with our discipline, our sobriety, and with our spirit of sacrifice” (quoted in Renwick, 1981, p.18). Therefore, the u<lity of economic weapons as an alterna<ve to military ac<on has some<mes been limited because of the difficulty involved in implemen<ng them without provoking the target state and thus risking exposure to the military ac<on that the sender was aXemp<ng to originally avoid.
The u<lity of economic weapons in the face of military ac<on has also been limited by the fact that states may aXempt to mi<gate the impacts of economic weapons before their implementa<on, or as a result of an earlier implementa<on of them. For examp le, the imposi<on of sanc<ons on Italy in response to its invasion of Abyssinia resulted in Mussolini’s policy of “autarchia”, a policy of Italian state-sufficiency with the inten<on of being able to resist sanc<ons. Even if this policy was largely unachieved and Italy became increasingly dependent on Germany, it nonetheless represented a concerted effort on the part of the target state to protect itself against future sanc<ons. Similar efforts were made by Germany prior to the Second World War. Germany had its own policy of “autarky”, borne of the memory of the impacts of the First World War naval blockade. Not only did Germany prepare detailed plans for self-sufficiency at home, but it also increased trading <es with neighbours in Central and Eastern Europe (where the trading routes were overland and so not suscep<ble to naval blockade). Germany also annexed Austria and Czechoslovakia to access further resources. It can be argued that the threat of sanc<ons and a gradual denial of supplies contribu ted to the expansionist policies of Germany and Italy as they sought to counter the poten<al effects of sanc<ons, and a parallel can be drawn with the Japanese response to sanc<ons applied to it. Therefore, due to increased na<onalism and expansionism in the target state, the usage of economic weapons may have limited u<lity, because of these states taking steps to mi<gate the impacts of economic weapons, and the increased tendency to pursue aggressive policies which can occur.
In conclusion, contrary to what many academics have posited, I would argue economic weapons are, and have been, useful in the face of military ac<on. When this issue is analysed from a simple “success-failure” point of view, that primarily analyses whether economic weapons achieved their core policy objec<ve, the conclusion that economic weapons are, in most cases, not useful seems jus<fied. Historically, economic weapons have o^en been ineffec<ve in achieving their core objec<ves, and the instances of success are outweighed by examples of their failure such as the Italian invasion
of Abyssinia, the Gulf War, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Effec<veness and u<lity, however, are not the same. Irrespec<ve of whether economic weapons have been effec<ve in achieving their core objec<ves, there have been numerous examples throughout history, such as Britain’s posi<on for much of the Second World War, and the American pursuit of nuclear non-prolifera<on regarding South Korea and Taiwan, where military ac<on was unfeasible or inexpedient, rendering economic weapons perhaps the only viable tool for states to achieve their goals. There have also been numerous examples throughout history, such as both World Wars, where the aXri<onal impacts of economic weapons, even if not the most decisive factor in the outcome of a conflict, have made an extremely important contribu<on to the outcome. Whilst there are some limi<ng factors to the u<lity of economic weapons, such as the rise in na<onalism, expansionism, and aggression they can cause, such an outcome has generally occurred in states where the propensity to this was already high, such as Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, and where military conflict was perhaps inevitable. Therefore, economic weapons have throughout history been, and con<nue to be, a crucial tool in the face of military ac<on, and the o^endismissive academic discourse around them is overly harsh. The dream of the founders of the League of Na<ons may not have been realised, but perhaps without economic weapons, the world would be even closer to their nightmares.
Bibliography.
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Savin Dias
POLITICS AND ECONOMICS
Savin Dias chose to focus his ERP on explaining the recent rise of populism across democracies worldwide and evaluating its potential consequences. He did this through a combination of qualitative and quantitative including the use of various econometric techniques. Savin is studying Maths, Further Maths, Physics and Economics (which he intends to pursue at university).
The Pathology and Symptoms of Populism
What are the causes of the recent rise of populism (especially in Europe and USA) and what economic impacts are they likely to have?
This essay, grounded in political economy, looks at and tries to explain the recent rise of Populism. Most populist ideas are counter to the orthodox views of economists and understanding why populism is more popular than established economic wisdom is addressed. The tension that exists between populist policies and economic doctrine is shown through s pecific cases, and though this is not a fully comprehensive list, I have focused on examples that have received significant media attention. A common misplaced populist narrative concerns that of the “Deep State”. This conspiracy theory is often at the root cause of populist ideology and is explained with relevant examples. Finally, the paper concludes with empirical econometric evidence regarding the effects of populist regimes on macro-economic growth. Using an illustrative method, I have tried to summarise a recent technical paper, the first of its kind, that applies econometric modelling deploying the method of ‘synthetic controls’, to evaluate macro-economic performance of populist regimes.
What is Populism?
Populism is not easy to define. It manifests across the political spectrum from far left to extreme right. It is not a political ideology, nor does it advocate specific socio-economic priorities. However, the work of Cas Mudde offers a useful definition. Populism is a political narrative that centres on the supposed struggle between ‘the people’ versus ‘the elite’, Mudde (2004, 2007) and Mudde and Kaltwasser (2017) Populist leaders claim to represent the pure, honest people against the corrupt elite minority that control the establishment. Populists typically depict ‘the people’ as a morally virtuous yet suffering common majority, whose collective attributes are embodied in the populist
leader. By contrast, ‘the elite’ is an inherently corrupt, self-serving minority that hold the balance of power.
In essence, populism bifurcates society into two distinct factions: the elites and the people. The elites, forming the governing echelons of society, control government, business, and banking. They sustain their dominion through preferential access to education, executive positions (the C-Suite), and upper tiers of the public sector. Despite apparent superficial distinctions, these elites represent a consolidated front. For instance, the backgrounds and interests of the families and networks that wield control over major political parties display negligible differences. Consequently, as per populist perception, there is minimal variation in the policies they advocate. Utilizing these concepts, populists promote the viewpoint that mainstream politics is a sophisticated charade orchestrated by the elite, generating outcomes detrimental to the interests of the common people.
Though the common people may not share the elite's level of education, they hold a fundamental understanding of life, rooted in shared traditions, religious beliefs, and community values. This wisdom is what populist politicians tap into. As Peter Wiles pu t it, "Virtue resides in the simple people, who make up the vast majority, and in their shared traditions" (Wiles 1969). Therefore, the essence of populist politics lies in transforming this collective wisdom and shared will into actual policies.
Donald Trump, in his inaugural address, laid out the populist case:
“Politicians prospered but the jobs left, and the factories closed. The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our county. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs…”
Using the working definition above, Funke, Schularick and Trebesch (2023) focus on classifying populist regimes. Their sample is across 60 countries from 1900-2023, and accounts from more than 95 percent of contemporaneous global GDP. The sample includes 1482 leaders and 1853 leader spells whose regimes were classified as either populist or non-populist. Twenty-eight countries were identified where populist regimes have existed. In many of these countries there have been more than one period where populism ruled. The coding is time-varying across spells of rule, meaning that some leaders can be populist during their first rule of power and become non-populist across their second or later spells or vice-versa. Of the 1482 leaders, 51 were identified as populist leaders with 72 leader spells.
Fig 1 shows the occurrence of populist governments over time. The number of populist regimes reached an all-time high in 2018. In the 1980s there was low occurrence of populist governments, but after the fall of the Berlin Wall populism made a comeback. Fig 1 has been compiled using data in the Table 1 which shows the 28 countries of the 60-country sample that a populist was in power at least once from 1900-2020.
We will econometric results of populist regimes on the macroeconomy will be discussed.
Source: Funke, Schularick and Trebesch (2023)
Populism’s Propagation …how Populism outcompetes economic wisdom and is winning the war on public engagement.
There are several causes that explain the recent rise of Populism that straddle across multiple disciplines - economics, politics, sociology, and psychology. However, re-occurring themes are the effects of economic downturns, economic uncertainty, and rising economic inequality.
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) presents a good case study. The 2008-2009 GFC was the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression. A populist’s explanation of the cause is excessive greed and risk taking by financial institutions. This is a classic example where institutions run by ‘the elite’, pursuing selfish personal interests, resulted in turmoil for the ‘common people’ The resulting economic downturn triggered social controversy because voters believed that the ruling elites responsible for the crisis did not suffer the consequences. There is an asymmetry with reward and
Table 1: Populist Leader Spells by Country (1900-2020)
risk which benefit only the elite: finance sector managers and corporate shareholders profit during prosperous times, while taxpayers bail out crisis-related losses (Rodrik 2021).
A similar pattern can be observed even more recently, following a cost of living and energy crisis throughout Europe and growing geopolitical tensions around the globe, right wing populist parties are growing in popularity in many historically liberal countries (The AFD in Germany, The party for freedom in The Netherlands and Reform UK etc.) All these parties have taken a largely similar approach in making immigration and “culture wars” the foundations of their platforms; using the typical populist playbook of demonising their enemies as “corrupt elites” this time seeking to destroy the fabric of their country with cultural replacement from unbridled immigration and “woke” ideologies.
Many modern populist regimes also tend to favour isolationist stances, the clearest examples being Hungary’s Viktor Orban (although this was largely caused by responses to his stance on Russia) and Donald Trump, who has repeatedly alluded to decreasing US contributions to NATO and even going as far as ending foreign aid spending, should he win office in 2024.
Whilst progress in economics depends on theory and empiricism, which are slow to evolve, technically difficult to understand, and reside in the realm of academics and policy makers (‘the elite’), the Populist agenda does not. Populism is founded on an appealing, easy to understand rhetoric brought to life by a strong charismatic leader who reflects the will of ‘the people’. In this respect, Populism is much closer to the people. Rodrik 2018 analyses the concept of ‘closeness’ and ‘distance’ with reference to Brexit and concludes that “economic rules and regulations are designed at considerable distance from democratic deliberation at the national level, which accounts for the frequent complaint of a democratic deficit”
Furthermore, the way Populism propagates has been fuelled by digital social media to an extent that mainstream economics does not Populist leaders look for a direct line to the people, and social media is the ticket.
For populist activists, social media provides low-cost (or even free) access to the grass roots, their potential ordinary supporters, and voters. For example, Narendra Modi and until he was banned from the platform in January 2021, Donald Trump, expertly used Twitter to circumvent traditional media to engage directly with their populist base of supporters and to challenge “the elite” (Schroeder 2018). In February 2022, Donald Trump launched Truth Social, his own social media platform, a strategic move to support his populist mission. At the time of writing this essay, Truth Social is about to float on Nasdaq with a valuation of over €9bn. In a twist of fortune, Donald Trump’s expulsion from Twitter, has made him more wealthy and more popular thanks to Truth Social! In a nutshell, social media’s direct line removes distance and establishes closeness and populists are expert players in this arena.
Worryingly often, the unchecked and unmediated nature of content on social media propagates fake news and establishes post truth (Speed and Mannion 2017). People read what they want to read, irrespective of the truth. This leads to societal polarisation as social media is highly targetedcontent on YouTube and Meta uses a mathematical algorithm to show you want you want to see.
Furthermore, social media is live and up to date. Tweets, Postings and Likes etc are made often and in real time, giving Populists a temporal advantage using nimble and agile means of communication.
Populism’s appeal thrives on simplicity of argument (sometimes post truth), a charismatic leader championing the cause of the common people, the apparent closeness of the Populist to the people, and agility of communications.
Populist Economics
As shown earlier, the occurrence of populist regimes has increased. However, their economic policies usually leave a trail of macroeconomic disruption. That said, Populist policies can sometimes lead to short-term economic benefits or meet the immediate demands of the populace But they can, and usually do, lead to long-term economic problems if they are not well-planned or sustainable. In this section specific examples from recent history are cited. The list is not exhaustive!
1. Hugo Chávez (Venezuela 1999-2013): Chávez implemented a range of populist policies, including nationalization of key industries and price controls on certain goods. While these policies initially helped to reduce poverty and inequality, over time they led to economic inefficiencies, decreased productivity, and eventually a severe economic and humanitarian crisis under his successor, Nicolás Maduro.
2. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Argentina 2007-2015): During her presidency, Kirchner implemented a range of populist policies, including subsidies on utilities, price controls, and currency controls. These policies led to inflation, a decline in foreign i nvestment, and economic instability.
3. Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe 1980-2017): interestingly this regime is not included in the Funke Schularick Trebesch 2023 sample, but was populist nevertheless. Mugabe implemented land reforms that involved seizing land from white farmers and redistributing it to black Zimbabweans. While the policy was aimed at addressing historical racial injustices,
it ended up causing a collapse in the agricultural sector, hyperinflation, and a severe economic crisis.
4. Donald Trump (United States 2017-2021): His protectionist trade policies, such as imposing tariffs on imported goods from China and other countries, led to a trade war that has been largely seen as harmful to the global economy. These policies have been criticized for leading to higher prices for consumers and uncertainty for businesses.
5. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey 2003-2014 Prime Minister, 2014 to date President): Erdoğan's economic policies, which include significant state control and intervention, have been criticized for leading to high inflation and decreasing the value of the Turkis h lira. His policy of low interest rates, despite high inflation, has particularly been criticized by economists.
Populist laws and policies which many economists see as misguided, receive popular support, even though they may not be aligned to maximising economic welfare in the long run.
The Deep State Conspiracy
What makes a populist tick?
In the “Populist’s Manifesto” (a term that I have coined), the finger of blame as to why things are not right, is often pointed at the “Deep State”. A deep state is a type of governance made up of potentially secret and unauthorized networks of power operating independently of a state's political leadership in pursuit of their own agenda and goals. (Wikipedia). The concept of the Deep State resonates with populists due to their general distrust in established institutions and political elites.
Populists, characterized by their appeal to ordinary people and their opposition to a perceived elite or establishment, believe that the Deep State is run by minority elites. I believe, there are several plausible reasons why:
1. Distrust in Institutions: Populists often express scepticism towards mainstream political institutions, seeing them as self-serving and disconnected from the needs of ordinary people. They believe in the Deep State to explain the persistence of policies and practices they disagree with.
2. Anti-Elitism: The Deep State theory feeds into populist anti-elitist narratives, portraying a secretive and powerful group of insiders manipulating government actions and policies from behind the scenes.
3. Oversimplification: Populists offer simple explanations to complex problems. They portray Deep State as form of conspiracy theory, suggesting a hidden network of elites within the government, over complicating issues and not doing what needs to be done, purely to hold on to power.
4. Deflection: The “Deep State” provides the perfect scapegoat to blame for populists when things don’t go to plan and promises aren’t kept. A prime example is Liz Truss, who claimed that she was “thwarted” by the British deep state, while trying to defend her disastrous policy decisions.
Throughout his presidency, Donald Trump made numerous references to the "Deep State". One notable instance was in 2018 when he accused the Deep State of causing strain in the U.S.-Russia relationship.
Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil): The former Brazilian President has also made references to the concept of a "Deep State". He and his supporters have suggested that there is a secretive power structure within the Brazilian government working against his presidency.
Rodrigo Duterte (Philippines): While not using the term "Deep State" directly, Duterte has often spoken of shadowy forces at work within the government and society that are opposed to his rule and policies.
In February 2024, Liz Truss, the former British Prime Minister, made an explicit reference to the Deep State. Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland USA, Truss styled herself as a populist who took on America’s equivalent of the Deep State in her own country.
“What has happened in Britain over the past 30 years is power that used to be in the hands of politicians has been moved to quangos and bureaucrats and lawyers so what you find is a democratically elected government unable to enact policies … In America, you call it the administrative state or the deep state. But we have more than 500 of these quangos in Britain and they run everything”.
Macroeconomic effects of Populism … a red flag for global growth
I now turn to the empirical aspects of this essay – quantifying the effects of populism on the macroeconomy. I will lean on an innovative econometric technique to ascertain the difference between true causality and spurious correlation
Most economists think Populist ideas are misguided. Their thoughts are not unfounded. Funke, Schularick and Trebesch (2023) offer compelling evidence. (This is the paper referenced in the first section of this essay).
Two descriptive statistics show the adverse effect of populism on GDP growth (Fig2):
1. GDP growth rate of country during populist regime minus long term GDP growth rate of country (Gap to Country Level, blue bar)
2. GDP growth rate of country during populist regime minus contemporaneous global GDP growth rate (Gap to Global Level, red bar)
Whilst the above gives directional evidence, a more formal treatment encompassing causality is required to rigorously assess the effect of populism on the macro economy.
This is done using statistical (econometric) modelling applied within the context of a test and control methodology. Specifically, the analysis contrasts the difference in real GDP across time between test cells (populist governments) and control cells (non-populist governments). To limit the extent of extraneous variables – ie to test exclusively the effect of populist governments on real GDP growth, without other factors polluting the test and control cells – the study creates a statistical ‘synthetic control’ (also known as a ‘synthetic Doppelganger’)
The purpose of the synthetic Doppelganger is to estimate a realistic counter factual of real GDP had a Populist regime not taken control, ie it shows real GDP that would have been observed in the absence of Populism. Fig3 illustrates how synthetic Doppelgangers are created using data from comparable countries.
The contrasting trajectory of real GDP between a test cell and the counter factual, after a Populist regime takes control reveals conclusive results (Fig4)
The trajectory of real GDP per capita following a Populist coming to power (blue dotted line) is substantially lower than that of a synthetic counterfactual where a Populist does not come to office.
The cumulative effect after fifteen years is more than 10 percentage points!
A reasonable question to ask is might economic slowdown under populists be attributed to the economic cycle, or to factors outside of their control? The point of the synthetic control is to minimise such effects. The other countries in the model are chosen such that their economic cycles are ‘in-phase’ with that of the country being modelled. Essentially, the economies of the test cell and control cells have similar economic cycles and external shocks will have the same or comparable affects on all member countries within a group.
Evaluation of the Econometric Method
Funke, Schularick and Trebesch (2023), is without doubt, the most technically advanced empirical study to date that analyses the effect of populist regimes on economic growth. It utilizes an innovative technique – the synthetic control (Doppelganger) – which teases out the counter factual (ie what would economic growth have been in the absence of a populist regime). In my email discussions with Dr Manuel Funke further insights on the econometric model were gleaned. The insights relate to two aspects of model stability: across regime sample selection and across time observations.
1. The parameter estimates from the model are stable and not sensitive to any specific regime or group of regimes being excluded from the sample. This means that regimes were not selected to merely ‘fit the data’ and tell the story that the authors wanted to narrate The results remain invariant across regime sample selection. The conclusions are robust and remain relevant under sample selection scrutiny.
2. It is evident from Fig 4 that the historical fit of model is accurate. When looking at the observations used to estimate the model – years minus 15 to zero – the synthetic control variable accurately tracks the observed data. However, this is only fitting the data and not forecasting it. A true out-of-sample forecast test has not been conducted. Therefore, we cannot be sure if the synthetic control will remain accurate when making forecasts across time. Essentially, the stability and accuracy of the model across time has not been tested. A possible solution would have been to have a hold out period (say 3 years) prior to the start of the populist regime to test the forecast accuracy of the model. This is illustrated in Fig 5.
If the model remains accurate in the out of sample test period (minus year 3 to year 0), then more confidence can be attributed to the counter factual post populist regime.
In summary, the Funke, Schularick, Trebesch (2023) model is stable across regime sample selection, however stability across time has not been tested. That said, this remains the most advanced application of econometrics in this specific field of political economy.
A mere five years ago, right-wing populist parties held the reins of power in just a handful of EU nations, specifically Greece, under the auspices of the Independent Greeks party, and Hungary, governed by Viktor Orban's Fidesz party. Today, however, as I pen the conclusion of this essay, the political scene has transformed significantly. Populist parties have successfully carved out a slice of power in eight member states, including Hungary, Poland, Italy, Austria, Finland, Estonia, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic, and are anticipated to make additional strides in the European Parliamentary elections scheduled between June 6th and 9th.
These parties find unity in their shared oppositions: immigration, Islam, climate change regulations, and perhaps most prominently, the influence exerted by the EU over its member states. Many also harbour reservations towards feminism, and the rights of the LGBTQ+ community. Despite these shared sentiments, each populist party deftly adjusts its messaging to reflect its specific circumstances.
Populist principles are steadily gaining ground. The year 2024, is the year of elections. Citizens from nations encompassing more than half of the planet's population will be heading to the voting booths. India, the globe's most populous democracy, has onc e again entrusted its leadership to President Modi. Concurrently, the United States, a bastion of democratic ideals, sees a populist candidate vying for its highest office. In the UK, Nigel Farage and the UK Reform Party, albeit small in size, are carving out a niche representing the populist right and will be standing in the upcoming election.
It is through clever ‘marketing’ that populist doctrines are experiencing an ascendency. The marketing content is a straight taking, anti-elitist, simple narrative that appeals to ‘the people’, delivered by a charismatic leader. The marketing vehicle is creating ‘closeness’ with supporters through nimble and agile use of digital (and primarily) social media.
However, as we have seen through empirical analysis, economies underperform when populists come to power. Based on econometric evidence, economic growth in the medium to long term is at risk. The economics profession has an uphill task to change perception and resume the higher ground. For now, at least, it is glaringly apparent, “it’s not the economy – stupid!”.
References and Bibliography
Funke, M., M. Schularick, C. Trebesch, 2023, Populist Leaders and the Economy, American Economic Review 113 (12), 3249-3288, 2023. 133, 2023
Mudde, C., 2004, The populist zeitgeist. Government and Opposition, 39 (4): 541-563.
Mudde, C., 2007, Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge
Mudde, C., C. Rovira Kaltwasser, 2017, Populism: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Rodrik, D., 2021, Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Rightwing Populism. NBER Working Paper No. 27526.
Schroeder, R., 2018, Social Theory after the Internet: Chapter 3 pp 60-81
Speed, E., Mannion, R. 2017, The Rise of Post-truth Populism in Pluralist Liberal Democracies: Challenges for Health Policy
Stoetzer, L., Giesecke, J., Kluver, H. 2023 How does income inequality affect the support for populist parties? Journal of European Public Policy, Vol 30:1, pp 1-20
Wiles, P., 1969, A Syndrome, Not a Doctrine, in Populism: Its Meaning and National Characteristics, Edited by Ghita Ionescu and Ernest Gellner, Macmillan 1969
Isabella Michaelson
PSYCHOLOGY
Isabella Michaelson chose ‘The psychological and neural effect of acting’ as her ERP focus due to her fascination in the contrasting fields of Drama and Neuroscience, and how they interact in everyday life. The project encompassed the different brain structures used throughout acting and how its deactivation-driven process can be unknowingly harmful to many individuals. Isabella is studying Biology, Psychology and Drama and aims to pursue Neuroscience at university.
The Psychological and Neural Effect of Ac8ng
By Isabella Michaelson
Introduc8on:
Ac1ng has an immense effect on everyone, no ma9er if you are the observer or performer. Actors themselves can be greatly affected mentally by the overwhelming experience of having to embody a completely different person, which has the possibility to distance their grasp on reality. To create a convincing performance an actor must completely involve themselves within their chosen character which is shown to s1mulate and deac1vate certain parts of the brain, clearly demonstra1ng the psychological impact that ac1ng can have on an individual. There are many different techniques actors use to get into character, some can be more psychologically harmful than others. This has the possibility to cause an actor to lose control over their emo1ons due to being e n1rely consumed by their character’s mindset.
Ac8ng techniques:
Character-emo1ons vs task-emo1ons
When ac1ng, the actor and the character possess contras1ng aims. The actor must be able to regulate these aims in order to keep a clear dis1nc1on between fic1on and reality (the characters life on stage and the actor's life off stage). An actor's personal emo1on is related directly to the task of ac1ng their character, these are referred to as task-emo1ons. However, an actor portrays characteremo1ons on stage, which are the representa1on of emo1ons felt by their character but not directly experienced by the actor. The task-emo1ons and character-emo1ons oMen interfere with each other, poten1ally decreasing the actor's ability to portray a convincing performance (Konijn, 2000). The actor's aim is to produce a convincing performance, so prac11oners such as Stanislavsky have devised techniques in order to combat this problem.
Stanislavsky vs Diderot
There are many opinions in ac1ng about how an actor should be involved with the characteremo1ons they are portraying and combat the task-emo1ons they are experiencing. Diderot and Stanislavsky are both well-known ac1ng prac11oners, although they teach completely contras1ng methods on how to solve this problem.
Stanislavsky focussed on the style of naturalism in order to try and create the most convincing performance, his techniques directly relate to the involvement theory (Konijn, 2000), which stated that an actor must experience the exact same emo1on as their character. Meaning that in order to prevent the task-emo1on from taking over the actor must completely embody themselves in the character-emo1on, allowing the character-emo1on to become the actor's personal emo1on during the performance. In order to further increase the naturalism of an actor's performance he encourages them to draw from their personal experiences. However, this technique of psychological manipula1on and character embodiment means that it is possible for an actor to become overwhelmed by these emo1ons and lose control during a performance (Worthen, 1983)
Contras1ng to this is Diderot’s standpoint which relates to the detachment theory (Konijn, 2000)
Diderot’s methods claim that an actor should not feel any personal emo1on or rela1on to the character’s emo1ons during their performance. This means that the actor should be completely
distanced from the character-emo1ons and only focus on portraying them through the taskemo1ons. Diderot’s technique can be seen as too distanced, meaning the actor cannot relate to the character’s emo1ons and will therefore fail to create a convincing performance. However, it can also be argued that Diderot’s technique is far more psychologically stable, since the actors are not at risk of losing their sense of reality as they have a higher control over their personal emo1ons.
Stanislavsky’s techniques are more widely used in ac1ng classes, due to the belief that sharing the same emo1on as your character allows you to create a more convincing performance. Even though this belief exists, it neglects the possible psychological harm that could be caused to the actor.
Neglec1ng the task-emo1on means the actor loses their 1es to reality and becomes completely imbedded within the mind of a fic1onal character.
Stanislavsky using Pavlov
Ivan Pavlov is a psychologist who inves1gated condi1oned reflexes. Stanislavsky used his research in order to try and improve his ac1ng methods. This involvement of psychology in theatre aimed to create a performance that combined psychological experience and physical ac1on. Stanislavsky wanted to find a way to consciously trigger an actor’s emo1onal expression, this would make the character-emo1on easier to produce involuntarily (Frazze8o, 2012). An example of this could be an actor clenching their fists in order to trigger the emo1on of anger.
Ac1va1ons in the brain contribute to neural networks, allowing feelings to arise (Šimić, 2021). Neural pathways underlie many complex behaviours and emo1ons which can be condi1ons by environmental or physical changes. Using this informa1on, Stanislavsky was able to teach actors learned reflexes that they could use to express emo1ons. This was done by learning a certain movement that would trigger an emo1onal experience for the actor.
Even though this technique from Stanislavsky involves psychological techniques, it does not directly nega1vely affect the actors. Meaning that this method can be ethically used in order to aid the ac1ng process.
Monis1c view of ac1ng
Many varia1ons of neuroscience and cogni1ve sciences have a monis1c view of people, meaning that the mind and body are not viewed as separate but instead as one joint en1ty (Blair, 2007) Holding a monis1c view is useful when looking at the ac1ng process. Stanislavsky took inspira1on from many psychologists who studied behaviour and used their findings in order to create techniques that would increase an actor's quality of performance. So, holding a monis1c view can help us to be9er understand the very psychologically involved ac1ng techniques, such as those by Stanislavsky, Meisner and Strasberg. Even though all of these prac11oners have different techniques and approaches when geVng into character, they all s1ll pose a risk to the actor of becoming too accustomed to the mind of their character.
MME’s
Steven Sloman, a professor of cogni1ve, linguis1c and psychological science, had hypothesised that it is difficult for an actor to completely hide their own emo1ons behind the character they're portraying. This is due to their personal emo1on and task-emo1on becoming visible in micromomentary facial expressions (MMEs). Many MMEs are oMen seen through theatrical performances,
showing that an actor does not always have full control over their emo1ons so some1mes their personal feelings can slip through (Konijn, 2000)
ToM
When portraying a character, an actor must develop a good ‘theory of mind’ (ToM), also known as cogni1ve empathy. A ToM is when the actor has a complex understanding of their character’s mental and emo1onal life, which aids them in conveying a convincing portrayal of their character. Actors have to frequently become many different characters, meaning that having a good ToM allows them to understand and analyse a character's thoughts and feelings in more depth (Goldstein, 2009). ToM involves ac1va1ng brain regions such as the superior temporal sulcus which is ac1ve during tasks of cogni1ve empathy and perspec1ve-taking (Lehner, Miller and State, 2016), temporal-parietal junc1on which is involved in a9en1on, self-consciousness and social behaviour (Doricchi, 2022), posterior precuneus that is involved in self-processing tasks such as taking a fist-person perspec1ve and an experience of agency (Cavanna and Trimble, 2006) and medial prefrontal cortex which plays a key role in emo1on regula1on (Xu, 2019)
Having a strong ToM allows actors to understand and depict a character's mental life. This means that actors are accustomed to depic1ng their characters mental state which involves facial expressions, eyes, voice and gestures. This could actually be beneficial to the actor in their personal life as well since they would have a greater understanding of other people’s emo1ons during social interac1ons.
ToM is not just used in ac1ng, but actually develops in everyone from childhood. However, actors just have far more advanced ToM’s due to addi1onal training. In everyday life, ToM is more frequently used to recognise emo1onal states and inten1ons in other people. The ToM is oMen viewed as less advanced in individuals with ASD, due to frequent experiences of social difficul1es (Rosello, 2020). It was shown in a media1on analysis study that ToM plays a key role in the development of social skills, that due to a lack of ToM competence in children with ASD their social behaviour is altered (Mazza, 2017). Even though ASD and an advanced ToM usually have a nega1ve correla1on, ac1ng techniques can be used to support some individuals with ASD in improving their depic1on of social interac1on. This displays that ac1ng techniques can be used for purposes other than crea1ng a convincing performance, by helping people in everyday situa1ons as well.
Findings in Goldstein and Winner’s study demonstrated that there is a con1nued plas1city in ones ToM and empathy levels aMer childhood. The study shows that these skills can be enhanced and further developed though ac1ng techniques such as enac1ng and imagining people. Actors learn empathy by mirroring other people’s emo1ons and enhance their ToM by reflec1ng on what other people/characters are thinking and feeling (Goldstein and Winner, 2012). Therefore, ac1ng aMer childhood could greatly help individuals with ASD in improving their empathy and ToM by gaining greater insight into what different emo1ons feel and look like.
Divergent thinking
Apart from having a more developed ToM, there are also many other posi1ve implica1ons that ac1ng can have on an individual. This includes a heightened divergent thinking (DT) ability. The results of Dumas’s study showed that both student and professional actors portrayed much higher DT levels
than non-actors did. This suggests that actors have a greater ability to explain, expand and develop original ideas than non-actors (Dumas 2020). This is due to the high demand on student and professional actors to generate new ideas in order to survive in their compe11ve industry.
Theatre Neuroscience: Mul1-rolling
A study by Steven Brown took place in order to examine the process of ac1ng in the brain, which discussed the concept of mul1-rolling in everyday life compared to in theatre. In everyday life everyone plays mul1ple roles, such as those of a child, friend, student, guardian or employee, although all these roles take place in the first person (1P). Whereas in theatre the mul1 -rolling used enables actors to portray characters, these are not just altered versions of yourself but are instead a completely different person. This character is referred to as a ‘fic1onal first-person’ (Fic1P) perspec1ve (Brown, 2019. Page 2). Roles played by actors require them to adopt new gestures, emo1ons and behaviours that belong to someone else. The ToM plays a huge part in enabling actors to assume this Fic1P perspec1ve, as it allows them to decode the inten1ons of their character in order to portray them successfully. This study aimed to explore neural processes of the brain when ac1ng which allows us to view how actors use psychological techniques in order to get into character. The prac1cal part of this study used fMRI machines to observe how actors used Stanislavsky’s methods in order to get in to character (Brown, 2019)
The results of this experiment revealed that when an actor obtains a Fic1P perspec1ve compared to their usual 1P perspec1ve, deac1va1on in the brain was seen in the anterior parts of the cor1cal midline (CMS) in the frontal lobe. This is relevant as the CMS is involved in genera1ng a model of one’s self and self-cogni1on (Kan, 2018). The dorsomedial prefrontal cortex/superior frontal gyrus and ventromedial prefrontal cortex were also all deac1vated when the par1cipant was ac1ng. These structures of the brain are all involved in self processing and knowledge of one’s own mental and physical traits, which suggests that the process of ac1ng is a deac1va1on-driven process leading to a possible ‘loss of self’ for the actor. This closely links the effect of ac1ng to Diener’s theory of deindividualisa1on (Li, 2010). This can be explained by an actor fully involving themselves in their task-emo1ons due to Stanislavsky’s techniques. The concept of having a ‘split consciousness’ is also relevant in this ac1ng process. The actor has to be themselves whilst embodying the personality of someone else at the same 1me, which leads to having a ‘divided a9en1on’ due to spliVng the resources needed to maintain one's iden1ty as a conscious self. Even though Stanislavsky aims to have the actor completely involved in the character’s mental state the actor s1ll needs to be able to monitor themselves and navigate their surroundings, which is displayed by this ‘divided a9en1on’ (Brown, 2019)
Sense of self
Another study took place, this one by Greaves, with the aim of being able to measure the sense of self of professional actors during a performance. Wavelength coherence analysis of brain signals, heartbeats, behaviour and breathing are all factors that were used to measure the actor’s internal coordina1on. During the experiment, two actors were performing a scene together and were called upon by either their real name or character name. Results showed that when in a scene, an actor was less likely to recognise their own name being called than their character’s. The findings of this experiment shows that during rehearsal an actor’s response to their own name is suppressed, due to
the actor distancing themselves from reality and imbedding themselves deeply within their character. This is shown by an observa1on of the leM anterior prefrontal cortex of the brain being suppressed, which is related to one’s self-awareness. Allowing a conclusion taken from this study to be that when an actor takes on the role of a character and imbed themselves so deeply within their character-emo1ons that they lose their sense of self, agreeing with the results of the first study (Greaves, 2022)
A brain-to-brain coherence analysis was also observed when pairs of actors rehearsed together. The two actors shared similar ac1vity pa9erns in the right frontopolar cortex and the right inferior frontal gyrus, these sec1ons of the brain are associated with ac1on planning and social interac1on. This shows us that specific brain systems become coordinated during complex social interac1ons, such as ac1ng a scene together. This brain synchrony between both actors occurs due to the neural ac1vity in one actor’s brain being coupled to the other through the lines said on stage and facial expressions made (Greaves, 2022)
This image displays the areas of the brain that experience deac1va1on during ac1ng. The red area represents the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex/superior frontal gyrus. The pink area represents the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. The blue area represents the leM anterior prefrontal cortex. (Sobo9a, 1908)
However, these studies only display the deac1va1ons that occurred in the brain and do not inform us on how the actors truly felt emo1onally and physically during the ac1ng experience. Therefore, not enabling a precise conclusion to be determined about the effect of Stanislavsky’s techniques, since we have the neural informa1on but not the emo1onal informa1on.
Method ac8ng:
The effect of method ac1ng
Method ac1ng is another technique used by actors in order to properly embody their character. Method ac1ng was created by Lee Strasberg in order to create a more psychologically immersed version of Stanislavsky’s techniques. Stanislavsky’s techniques are already very psychologically and mentally overwhelming with an actor only immersing themselves fully in their character whilst on stage, however Strasberg’s method ac1ng involves an actor fully immersing themselves in their
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character’s mental state on and off stage. When method ac1ng, an actor would live as their character for the en1rety of this ac1ng process. This can have many long-las1ng psychological effects for the actor, due to the actor being completely separated from their own personal experiences, which can lead to 'boundary blurring’ between the actor and their character (Burgoyne, 1999). This shows that there are techniques other than Stanislavsky's that can nega1vely affect an actor's psychological health, such as method ac1ng which is an even more engrossing version of Stanislavsky’s methods. Even though method ac1ng is known to be mentally harmful on its par1cipants, it is s1ll widely known to be one of the most well-known ac1ng techniques used by famous actors. Method ac1ng can affect actors emo1onally, physically and vocally. One example of this is the huge impact that method ac1ng had on Heath Ledger when playing the role of The Joker. Through method ac1ng Heath Ledger chose to completely embody the role of this psycho1c character. As part of this process, he isolated himself for a month inside a hotel room in order to learn and completely embody the physicality of the Joker. Through Stanislavsky's ac1ng technique it has been said that physical movement can also affect the emo1onal state of an individual. So, due to Ledger’s mental and physical involvement in The Joker, he became paralysed within the emo1onal state of his character. This then had a detrimental effect on his mental health, leadin g him to develop mental health issues such as insomnia (Brown, 2023). This is a very extreme example of the impact of method ac1ng on an individual, however it clearly displays the way that Strasberg’s methods can have an emo1onal impact on an individual even aMer their performance has finished.
Strasberg’s techniques also have the consequence of actors geVng stuck in their character. This can also be referred to as having an emo1onal hangover (Geer, 1993), where the actor would maintain characteris1cs from their character and portray them in their personal life.
De-rolling
De-rolling is an extremely important part of any ac1ng process that involves full character embodiment, especially in method ac1ng. If an actor doesn't de-role, they may uninten1onally portray behaviours of their character when not ac1ng which could pu t the actors’ own mental health at risk through feelings of confusion and iden1ty loss. The ac1on of de-rolling includes an actor going through mental and physical changes in order to try and revert themselves back into their natural facial expressions and characteris1cs. However, de-rolling techniques are rarely taught, leaving an actor to either be leM in the unfamiliar body of their character or to figure it out individually (Brown, 2023). Both of these op1ons put the actor at a higher risk of geVng stuck in their character, so universi1es and ac1ng schools should really priori1se teaching de- rolling techniques alongside their ac1ng courses.
A study by Lillian Brown took place in order to understand ac1ng students’ experiences and familiarity with de-rolling techniques. The par1cipants were asked three ques1ons as part of an interview on this topic and the results were recorded. One of the ques1ons asked was ‘Have you ever finished ac1ng and s1ll felt the emo1ons of your character?’. Most par1cipants used either Stanislavsky’s or Meisner’s techniques to get into character, or a combina1on of both. Meisner’s ac1ng techniques are based on ins1nc1vely reac1ng to other actors on stage, by focussing on improvisa1on and spontaneity when responding to unrehearsed moments. The answers to this ques1on revealed that 14 out of 15 of the par1cipants have previously experienced las1ng emo1o ns aMer finishing their performance. Another ques1on the par1cipants were asked was ‘How familiar
are you with de-rolling?’. As expected, only 5 out of the 15 par1cipants were familiar with or had even heard of this concept. Out of the 5 par1cipants who had heard of de-rolling, only 3 of them actually used the techniques to get out of their character ’s mindset (Brown, 2023). This shows that many students are leM at risk of geVng stuck in their character without the knowledge of de-rolling techniques, meaning actors would have an increased risk of any psychological harm.
Conclusion:
It is evident to see from the research discussed that the process of ac1ng has a huge psychological impact on an individual. This is mainly seen in a nega1ve light, since the two neuroscience studies compliment the idea of there being a psychological strain on the mind when ac1ng. These studies clearly depict that ac1ng is a deac1va1on-driven process, ul1mately displaying the risks associated with ac1ng. These risks could consist of having a divided a9en1on, loss of sense of self and distancing oneself from reality. However, these possible risks could be greatly minimised through the use of de-rolling. As displayed, there is a clear lack of de-rolling techniques in drama curriculums or even knowledge of them. This lack of knowledge further endangers actors and will con1nue to do so if changes are not made. Ac1ng techniques such as Stanislavsky’s and Strasberg’s can be thought to be unethical when looking at the conclusions of these studies. However, ac1ng techniques can also be used to help individuals improve their social rela1ons through improvements in their ToM. As well as this, actors clearly enjoy ac1ng and the experience of it otherwise it wouldn't be such a populated field to work in. Nevertheless, it is s1ll extremely important that th ese conclusions should be known, and actors should be aware of the risks in order to able to de-role successfully. Otherwise, these techniques will con1nue to grow in popularity and be used for years whilst choosing to ignore the mental strain it causes on individuals.
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