October 2014
High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook Opportunities in Middle-Market Debt Investment Professionals B. Scott Minerd Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Michael P. Damaso
Leveraged credit suffered from heightened volatility over the third quarter as mutual fund investors withdrew from the sector amid concerns about frothy valuations and talk of a credit bubble. We believe the high-yield bond market correction this quarter is healthy and overdue, but investors can expect choppier waters ahead. One segment we believe may help limit near-term volatility risk while capturing strong returns is middlemarket debt.
Chairman, Corporate Credit
One way that we identify middle-market debt is based on deal size of up to $750 million,
Investment Committee
and we specifically find value in those between $300 million and $750 million, which we classify as “upper middle-market.” As a whole, middle-market debt historically had
Jeffrey B. Abrams
many attractive features relative to larger debt issues, including higher yields, better
Senior Managing Director,
annualized returns, lower volatility, higher recoveries, a comparable default history and
Portfolio Manager
a stable investor base.
Kevin H. Gundersen, CFA
Report Highlights
Senior Managing Director, Portfolio Manager Thomas J. Hauser Managing Director, Portfolio Manager Maria M. Giraldo Senior Associate, Investment Research
§ The Credit Suisse High-Yield and Leveraged Loan Indexes posted mixed performance through the quarter, declining by 1.9 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. This was the first correction in nearly a year, and we view it as healthy and overdue. § With the potential for more volatility ahead, one segment that may help limit volatility while capturing strong returns is middle-market debt. § Middle-market debt has historically been held by a smaller, dedicated investor base — something that we believe has historically helped generate higher premiums for less volatility. § During the third quarter, middle-market corporate bonds, as represented by the Merrill Lynch High Yield Index, lost an average of 1.4 percent, compared to a 2.3 percent loss for high-yield bonds with greater than $750 million outstanding. Middle-market debt has outperformed larger debt by 58 basis points annualized since 1997 with less volatility. We believe the middle-market segment can continue to add significant value to our credit strategies.
Guggenheim Investments
High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook | Q4 2014
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