GENERAL SITUATION IN MEXICO
Weekly Review I April 30, 2025
US - MEXICO PRESIDENTIAL NEWS
Global Growth Downgrade and Economic Outlook
Background:
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently downgraded its 2025 global growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%. This adjustment reflects escalating trade tensions, heightened market volatility, and broader geopolitical uncertainty. Particular focus falls on the United States and Mexico:
• The U.S. economy is projected to experience significant deceleration due to rising borrowing costs, tightening credit conditions, and deteriorating consumer confidence.
• Mexico faces a mild contraction (-0.3%), driven by weakened export demand, increased inflationary pressures, and exposure to supply chain disruptions linked to U.S. protectionist policies.
Economic and Financial Impact:
• U.S. GDP growth projections were cut sharply, with recession risks rising above 50% according to leading indicators.
• Financial markets experienced turbulence, with the S&P 500 showing heightened volatility and bond yields increasing.
• In Mexico, peso depreciation and higher financing costs are expected to curb both private consumption and investment.
• Cross-border trade volumes between the U.S. and Mexico have slowed, impacting manufacturing and supply chain sectors heavily reliant on bilateral flows.
US - MEXICO PRESIDENTIAL NEWS
Macroeconomic implications:
• The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious stance, holding interest rates at current high levels (4.25%–4.50%) until clearer evidence of economic stabilization appears.
• In Mexico, Banxico (the central bank) faces a delicate balance: needing to maintain high rates to defend the peso while addressing domestic growth concerns.
• Inflation in the U.S. may ease temporarily but could rebound above 3% depending on tariff impacts and supply chain bottlenecks.
• Mexico’s inflation outlook remains pressured, limiting the scope for monetary easing despite slowing activity.
SOURCE: EL PAIS
Policy Uncertainty
• In the U.S., political pressure on the Fed, along with unpredictable fiscal and trade policy decisions, has weakened investor confidence.
• In Mexico, political uncertainty related to domestic reforms and external dependence on U.S. economic performance further weighs on market sentiment.
• Both countries are vulnerable to additional external shocks, such as energy price volatility or further deterioration in global trade dynamics.
• Central banks emphasize patience and data-dependency, awaiting further clarity before adjusting monetary policy directions.
Trump to offer automakers relief on Tariffs
Background:
• On April 29, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at softening the impact of recently imposed 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts. Originally intended to protect domestic manufacturing and national security, these tariffs raised concerns across the auto industry about potential price hikes, lower vehicle sales, and disrupted supply chains. The new decree ensures that these auto tariffs will not stack with existing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, thus reducing cost burdens for automakers.
• The White House also announced exemptions for parts originating from Canada and Mexico under the USMCA agreement, and introduced a system allowing automakers to claim tariff offsets tied to the percentage of domestic content in their vehicles. Companies with U.S. factories will receive rebates of up to 15% this year and 10% the next, encouraging localized production.
US - MEXICO PRESIDENTIAL NEWS
Automakers’ response
General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis welcomed the move, emphasizing that it provides breathing room to adjust supply chains and maintain competitiveness. However, GM revised its 2025 outlook due to tariff uncertainties, while analysts warned that consumer vehicle prices could rise by up to $6,875, undermining demand.
Implications for Mexico:
Mexico, as a key part of North America’s auto supply chain, stands to benefit from the exemptions granted under USMCA. Auto parts manufactured in Mexico and compliant with trade rules will not face tariffs, preserving its critical role in supplying components to U.S. assembly plants. This reduces the risk of economic disruption in Mexico’s automotive export sector, encouraging continued foreign investment and production integration with the U.S. market.
SOURCE: AP NEWS
LEGISLATIVE CHANGES AND INITIATIVES
LABOR
• INITIATIVE TO AMEND ARTICLE 123 OF THE POLITICAL CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED MEXICAN STATES
Presented by: Sen. Miguel Márquez Márquez (Guanajuato - PAN)
Objective: Mandates that all job offers, whether published through traditional or digital media, must be truthful, verifiable, and non-discriminatory. Authorities must oversee compliance and apply sanctions as established by law.
Status: 2025-04-24 – Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
• INITIATIVE TO AMEND ARTICLE 132 AND ADD A PARAGRAPH TO ARTICLE 170 OF THE FEDERAL LABOR LAW
Presented by: Sen. Miguel Ángel Yunes Márquez (Veracruz - MORENA)
Objective: Mandates 12 weeks of paid paternity leave and grants new mothers the right to work remotely for up to 12 weeks post-maternity leave, preserving full salary and benefits if agreed with the employer.
Status: 2025-04-22 – Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
• INITIATIVE TO AMEND VARIOUS LAWS ON WORKPLACE HARASSMENT
Presented by: Sen. Cynthia Iliana López Castro (Mexico City - MORENA)
Objective: Criminalizes workplace harassment involving repeated hostile, humiliating, or intimidating behavior aimed at destabilizing or forcing an employee to resign. Penalties include 1–3 years in prison, fines, and mandatory human rights training. Harassment with clinically diagnosed psychological harm may result in increased penalties.
Status: 2025-04-22 – Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
LEGISLATIVE CHANGES AND INITIATIVES
FINANCIAL
• INITIATIVE WITH DRAFT DECREE TO AMEND ARTICLE 160 OF THE INCOME TAX LAW
Presented by: Deputy Fátima Almendra Cruz Peláez (Puebla - PVEM)
Objective: Establishes a flat 20% tax rate on total income earned, with no deductions. If the buyer is a Mexican resident or a foreign resident with a permanent establishment in Mexico, they must withhold the tax; otherwise, the taxpayer must declare it within 15 days.
Status: 2025-04-23 – Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
TECHNOLOGY
• BILL TO AMEND ARTICLE 73 OF THE POLITICAL CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED MEXICAN STATES ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Presented by: Deputy Martha Amalia Moya Bastón (State of Mexico - PAN)
Objective: Grants Congress the authority to legislate on artificial intelligence. A 180-day period is established to analyze current laws and issue necessary secondary legislation.
Status: 2025-04-22 – Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
• INITIATIVE WITH DRAFT DECREE TO ENACT THE NATIONAL LAW TO ELIMINATE BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
Presented by: Federal Executive
Objective: Enacts a national law for administrative simplification and digitalization of procedures, establishing mandatory tools and models for all levels of government to reduce bureaucracy, standardize services, and promote transparency through digital platforms and technological autonomy.
Status: 2025-04-22 – Initiative referred to Committee for review and opinion
ENVIRONMENTAL
• BILL TO ADD ARTICLE 28 BIS AND SECTION VI BIS TO ARTICLE 31 OF THE GENERAL LAW FOR THE PREVENTION AND INTEGRAL MANAGEMENT OF WASTE
Presented by: Sen. Alberto Anaya Gutiérrez (National List - PT)
Objective: Classifies lithium-ion batteries as special or hazardous waste based on their physical and chemical properties, condition, and volume, in accordance with official Mexican standards.
Status: 2025-04-22 – Published in the Parliamentary Gazette
NEWS BY STATE
BAJA CALIFORNIA
To strengthen its leadership in the aerospace industry, Baja California secured strategic alliances at the 2025 Mexican Aerospace Fair (FAMEX) through its Economy and Innovation Secretariat and the ProBaja platform, in collaboration with the new Aerospace and Aeronautics Cluster (CEA-BC). The state, home to 94 aerospace companies—21% of the national total—supports over 40,000 jobs and a supply chain of more than 339 firms. Key moments included meetings with France’s Ambassador to Mexico, leaders from SAFRAN and Meloche Group, and Arizona’s Commerce Authority to boost binational cooperation. Baja California also engaged with GE Aerospace to promote local suppliers via the ProBaja Capabilities Portfolio. The state’s participation reflects a strategic alliance among anchor companies, suppliers, academia, and government, fostering collective growth, professionalization, and global visibility.
SOURCE: MEXICO INDUSTRY
VEMO, Mexico’s leading cleantech company for clean mobility, has begun operations in Baja California and Baja California Sur with 12 new EV and plug-in hybrid chargers in Tijuana, La Paz, and Los Cabos. This expansion supports the region’s electromobility goals and follows a 289.6% rise in EV sales in early 2025. With over 700 chargers nationwide, VEMO offers a reliable network managed through the Watts by VEMO app, enabling users to locate, pay, and monitor their charging in real time.
SOURCE: CLUSTER INDUSTRIAL
NEWS BY STATE
SONORA
At the 2025 Mexican Aerospace Fair (FAMEX), the Ministry of Innovation and Economic Development of Chihuahua showcased the state’s aerospace capabilities to attract investment and strengthen its strategic position in the sector. Emphasizing talent development, over 27,000 individuals have earned specialized aerospace certifications through Cenaltec. The state also promotes investment through incentives from Prodech and supply chain strengthening via training and business networking. This collaborative approach has attracted over $130 million in foreign direct investment by the end of 2024. Among the allies mentioned are Index Chihuahua, the Chihuahua Aerospace Cluster, Chihuahua Global, the Center for Research in Advanced Materials (CIMAV), and several companies in the sector.
SOURCE: MEXICO NOW
NEWS BY STATE
COAHUILA
Directors from Yokohama, Grupo Alianza, and the Government of Coahuila held a working meeting to discuss the progress of the Japanese company’s plant in Derramadero, focusing on construction and production. Yokohama is investing $400 million in the facility, which will generate over 1,000 jobs. The installation in Coahuila resulted from an economic promotion trip to Asia in October 2023, and construction officially began in April 2024. This project marked the 15th confirmed investment in the state. During the meeting, Governor Manolo Jiménez expressed strong support for Yokohama and its development team, emphasizing that Coahuila is committed to fostering successful operations for all companies investing in the state. He reiterated his administration’s dedication to creating favorable conditions for more investments and job creation across all regions of Coahuila.
SOURCE: MEXICO INDUSTRY
NEWS BY STATE
GUANAJUATO
Thyssenkrupp Materials de México, based in Silao, Guanajuato, received the prestigious Q1 certification from Ford Motor Company for its operational excellence in cutting steel and aluminum blanks used in automotive body manufacturing. This recognition places the company among key Ford global suppliers in Guanajuato, such as Kostal and Kolbenschmidt. With over 25 years of service to Mexico’s automotive sector, Thyssenkrupp has become a trusted partner for major OEM and Tier 1 suppliers. Backed by a $451 million investment and over 800 direct jobs, Ford continues to strengthen its presence in Guanajuato, supported by strategic partners like Thyssenkrupp, contributing to a more competitive, sustainable, and inclusive supply chain.
SOURCE: MEXICO INDUSTRY
QUERETARO
Querétaro and Mexico are advancing with forward-looking infrastructure, highlighted by the launch of the Mexico–Querétaro Train in Pedro Escobedo, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum and Governor Mauricio Kuri. The 220 km rail line will connect key regions in under two hours at speeds of up to 200 km/h, integrating with Qrobús, Metro, and Metrobús systems. With an investment of $7.2 billion USD, the project will generate over 600,000 jobs and boost economic activity across 14 construction zones. The Querétaro station will be named “La Corregidora,” and work on the Querétaro–Irapuato section is set to begin by July 2025. In parallel, the state attracted $85.3 million USD in new automotive investments during Q1 2025, creating over 900 jobs through projects from firms like Scania, Bridgestone, and Yanfeng.
SOURCE: CLUSTER INDUSTRIAL
NEWS BY STATE
CDMX
The PAN party in Mexico City is advocating for the implementation of the “Plan Capital” to stimulate the city’s economy and attract foreign investment. Luisa Gutiérrez Ureña, PAN CDMX president, emphasized that CDMX is currently not on the international economic radar, despite having the country’s most highly qualified population. She stressed the need to promote tourism, innovation, and investment, with a regional development approach focusing on the city’s south, north, and west. Raúl Torres Guerrero, a migrant deputy and member of the Economic Development Commission, warned that the global recession could lead to job losses and business closures in CDMX. He argued that the city must position itself as an attractive destination for capital. To support this, PAN proposes creating a Business School for entrepreneurs and launching an Innovation Agency, similar to a “Pro CDMX,” aimed at facilitating international connections and fostering local development. These proposals are part of PAN’s strategy to revitalize the city’s economy.
SOURCE: DOSSIER DE PRENSA
STATE OF MEXICO
The State of Mexico (Edomex) has announced a historic private investment of over $3.7 billion USD to develop 48 real estate projects across 19 municipalities, aiming to create more than 150,000 jobs. Governor Delfina Gómez emphasized that this partnership with the Mexican Association of Real Estate Developers (ADI) will not only strengthen the state’s economy but also enhance the quality of life for residents. From September 2023 to March 2025, the current administration has already generated over 121,000 jobs, and this new investment is expected to push the total beyond 270,000. Municipalities such as Naucalpan, Cuautitlán Izcalli, Tecámac, and Huixquilucan will benefit directly from the projects, which support equitable growth and align with national goals for economic development and dignified housing. Economic Development Secretary Laura González Hernández added that Edomex ranks second nationally in foreign direct investment, receiving $2.64 billion in 2024 alone, reinforcing its role as a key economic hub.
SOURCE: EL SOL DE TOLUCA
INVESTMENT NEWS
NATIONAL
GRUPO MODELO
Grupo Modelo will invest over $3.6 billion dollars in Mexico between 2025 and 2027. The investment will focus on modernizing its plants, advancing recycling initiatives, and strengthening partnerships with local producers.
CENTRAL MEXICO
HOME DEPOT
The Home Depot will invest over $61 million dollars to open three new stores in Guanajuato, creating approximately 300 direct jobs. The new locations will be in San Miguel de Allende, León, and Guanajuato City.
ORACLE
Oracle’s Development Center in Jalisco is projected to create 500 new jobs annually through 2026. Oracle is one of the world’s leading technology companies.
SOURCE: MEXICO INDUSTRY
PRODENSA INSIGHTS
THE HIDDEN RISKS OF SELF-CERTIFYING ORIGIN UNDER USMCA
Under the USMCA, companies can self-certify the origin of their goods to access tariff benefits — but doing so without expert guidance can lead to costly mistakes. Missteps in self-certification, such as misinterpreting complex rules of origin or incomplete documentation, can trigger audits, penalties, and even denial of preferential treatment.
To protect your supply chain and avoid compliance risks, it’s critical to work with trade experts who can validate certifications, provide proactive advice, and help you maintain the right documentation standards.
HOW A SHELTER PARTNER SHAPES REAL ESTATE STRATEGY IN MEXICO
Choosing the right industrial site in Mexico involves more than location — it requires aligning your real estate decisions with regulatory, operational, and workforce needs. A shelter partner helps you de-risk the process by guiding you through land acquisition, permitting, and longterm strategy based on your production goals.
By integrating site selection with operational planning, shelter partners like Prodensa ensure your real estate investment supports scalable, compliant, and efficient manufacturing operations.
