Playbook for strategic foresight and innovation

Playbook

FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND

Innovation A hands-on guide for modeling, designing, and leading your company's next radical innovation

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Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

Playbook Development Team Tamara Carleton

Sponsors

Research Partners

William Cockayne

art coordination

Graphic design and layout Anna Raikkonen

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Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

Playbook overview Welcome to a guide for the strategic manager, the person who is responsible for innovation— next market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets.

How to use it

Strategic focus

Benefit to you

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Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. The Foresight Framework

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We introduce a comprehensive framework

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Discover the different types of innovation paths, people, and industry contexts to help you start in the right place with the right mindset.

Chapter 3. Perspective

The Generational Arcs, Future User, and Futuretelling methods identify your future customers in terms of macro, micro, and narrative views.

Chapter 6. Team

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The Buddy Checks, VOICE Stars, and and keep the right people engaged in your pursuit of radical innovation.

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The Context Map, Progression Curves, and Janus Cones methods broaden your view of the problem space, helping you to better anticipate the future.

Chapter 4. Opportunity

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The White Spots, Paper Mockups, and Change Path methods turn your idea into a tangible artifact and plan.

the big idea.

Chapter 2. How to Start

Chapter 5. Solution

Chapter 7. Vision

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The Vision Statement, DARPA Hard Test, organizational vision to direct your team’s efforts.

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Appendix

Supporting material includes a list of readings, suggested data sources, and other related items.

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Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

METHOD SHORTCUTS PERSPECTIVE

OPPORTUNITY

SOLUTION

TEAM

VISION

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Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

A variety of case studies Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how various organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning.

FUTURE VISION FOR PAPER

10 WORKSHOP LESSONS FROM AN INDUSTRY VETERAN

A SECOND FUTURE FOR UBICOM

HOW YLE DEFINED A NEW FORESIGHT CAPABILITY

SEEKING VISIONARIES AT DARPA

PROGRAM MANAGERS AT DARPA

DARPA’S LESSONS FOR INDUSTRY

TECHNOLOGY VISIONS AT DARPA

THE HEILMEIER CATECHISM AT DARPA

THE ORIGINAL VISION OF EPCOT

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Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

How to use the playbook

Insights Drawing insights & implications

The playbook adopts two simple schemas to help you follow the material types of content. The second schema applies to each method’s presentation.

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Overview

Tips

Context Maps What you get

WhEN to use it

Tips & lessons from others

research

WhY it’s helpful

REFLECTION

What is the proposed topic?

Why do you want to pursue it?

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Example Let’s look at an example

Photos Additional examples

ORIGINALS MISSING

IDEAL CITY > >

A major consumer electronics company used a

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Instructions Instructions 1. Agree on a broad topic or opportunity area your team wants to pursue. You set the scale of topic. Very broad topics may

An American police force considered how decreasing state funds would impact a range of

Template

CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet

annotated example. The numbers in numbers in the diagram.

2. Draw an outline for a Context Map or use the worksheet template in the playbook.

3. Start talking with your team about dimensions as they arise. Points of intense discussion or even disagreement are good to include in your Context Map. 4. around your Context Map. At

5. arrives at a map (or set of maps) that captures your problem space 63

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

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Peter Drucker

Arthur C. Clarke

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FORESIGHT FRAMEwork ChaptER 1

Shortcuts Foresight Framework

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Five planning phases

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Two guiding principles

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The methodology

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Underlying theories

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An integrated system

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Case study: Paper

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The Foresight Framework What do you need to do to plan your next big idea?

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Five planning phases

The Foresight Framework is

Phase I: Perspective

guide innovation planning and action.

Phase IV: Team

Phase II: Opportunity

Phase V: Vision

Phase III: Solution

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The ambiguity curve

Where would you put yourself on the Ambiguity Curve?

A

v

Š 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

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Two guiding principles Principle #1 What you foresee is what you get

Principle #2 You can’t put off tomorrow

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The methodology PHASE I: PERSPECTIVE

PHASE II: OPPORTUNITY

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PHASE III: SOLUTION

PHASE IV: TEAM

Prototype 16

PHASE V: VISION

DARPA

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Underlying theories

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DARPA

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An integrated system

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©

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CASE STUDY | Future vision for paper How should my team begin?

How do we introduce new methods in radical innovation?

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How can we set the right focus and still embrace ambiguity?

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How do we restart if our first group discussions are uninspiring?

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How can we turn experiences into lessons?

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Buddha

Robert Collier

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HOW TO START ChaptER 2

Shortcuts Let’s start with questions 30

Sample problems

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Why a playbook

Learning process

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35 Types of growth

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Starting midway

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Finding inspiration

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Teams or alone

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Who leads change

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Finding data

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Which industries

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Case study: 10 lessons

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Viewpoint: Revisionist

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Let’s start with questions With the basic framework in mind, how should you begin approaching your group's innovation process?

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Why a playbook?

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book y a l P s i h Use T o t t o N ns 10 Reaso

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1. You will not find a single ready-to-use idea.

6. This playbook won’t provide a quick fix.

4. You will make yourself and others uncomfortable.

2. Using this playbook is hard work.

7. It is lengthy.

5. There is no guaranteed success in radical innovation.

3. The playbook does not know your problem.

8. Some academics were involved.

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9. It won’t help you predict the future.

10. You can’t cheat at innovation.

Which reasons(s) resonated most with you? Why?

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What definitions are we using?

Strategic foresight

Innovation

Radical innovation

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What type of growth do we seek?

What do you see as the most rational path to innovation? What does your leadership team believe?

New growth

Emerging growth

Core growth

Which growth path does your work focus most on? Why?

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Where do we find inspiration?

Where should we look for ideas? three simple places.

> > > >

Organizational start

> > > >

External start

> > > >

Internal start

> > >

Common

> > > > >

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Who leads change in innovation?

Multiple innovation roles—or what you might call personality types— coexist within an organization at any given time.

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Which contexts or industries work best?

This playbook can be applied easily to different types of organizations and contexts.

Type of organization

Industry sector Company size

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VIEWPOINT | Revisionist thinking Country and culture

I am a social scientist in Finland, and our usual Scandinavian planning principle is to plan rigorously and execute once. After working with several American colleagues from Silicon Valley, I have discovered an unexpected difference in their approach to problem-solving.

In Silicon Valley, they tend to execute again. While I can see the

value in rapid learning cycles, at the same time, this approach creates a headache for Finns who have already settled contentedly and deliberately As we work with more foreign innovators, Finnish managers should be exposed earlier to other ways of working—ultimately leading to better harmony and making iteration a welcome part of our planning process.

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What types of problems are addressed?

What types of problems are other companies and innovation managers addressing with the methods in this playbook?

International paper producer

Software developer

National media company

Training service provider

Global forestry company

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Marketing department

National IT company Strategic R&D consortium

Federal governmental agency

International steel company

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What is the learning process?

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7 6

3

1

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5

2

Š

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

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Can we start with a specific objective?

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Where do we start midway in a project?

X

Instructions

Scoring

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Should we work in teams or alone?

The short answer is both.

All the methods can be used independently or within groups.

Using methods in teams

Optimal group size

Using methods alone

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Where can we find credible data?

What are your usual top Why?

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CASE STUDY | 10 workshop lessons from an industry veteran Planning with foresight

The advantage of workshops

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Lesson 1: Maximize participant diversity

Lesson 4: Frame the opportunities to be eXplored

Lesson 3: Assign light pre-work

Lesson 2: Divide people into smaller teams

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Lesson 5: Prepare simple examples

Lesson 8: Allow time to reflect and recharge

Lesson 7: Follow the process

Lesson 6: Apply real-world data

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Lesson 9: Encourage experimentation and iteration

Lesson 10: Sustain the momentum of the workshop

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Gary Hamel

C. K. Prahalad

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PERSPECTIVE ChaptER 3

Shortcuts Phase I: Perspective

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Context Maps

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Progression Curves

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Case study: Ubicom

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Janus Cones

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Phase I: Perspective Have you ever spent time in a meeting and after 30 minutes, realized the group should have discussed what has happened before in your organization, let alone industry? Or wondered when the brainstorm you’re in will ever converge to the main points?

PHASE I: PERSPECTIVE

this phase:

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Context Maps Context Maps capture the themes that emerge when discussing complex problems.

WhEN to use it

What you get

WhY it’s helpful

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Let’s look at an example

> >

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Instructions

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at we h t e e ow e agr 1. W ant to kn e w n first perts defi ure x ut how e y of the f t the ci

etch the k s n e h 2. We t ne, which li tool out a big flower ke looks li t “petals” h with eig

3. As we talk, we not e the biggest themes in Hall’s report, as one theme per dimension

4. A team m em captures rela ber ted points near certain themes, so we don’t forget our dialogue late r 64

Drawing insights & implications

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of As a variation anged the tool, we ch nd the backgrou color of each hich dimension, w rying could show va ted levels of expec change

We real iz driven e a blend of da and lif estyle- tadriven elemen ts defin perfect ea city

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Tips & lessons from others

What is the proposed topic?

Why do you want to pursue it?

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Additional examples

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CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

Progression Curves Progression Curves represent the evolution of changes in terms of

WhEn to use it

WhY it’s helpful

What you get

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Let’s look at an example

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Instructions

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1. After reviewing my Context Map, I decide to look at the evolution of interactive touchscreens for my first Progression Curve

ts from history, 4. I add more data poin nt to continue realizing that I will wa ring the course of extending this curve du my research program

line quickly, 2. I draw a wavy n always extend knowing that I ca rmat later. an end point or fo

3. I keep my first pass simple, notin g major developments and dates that help me u nderstand how the field has developed 73

Drawing insights & implications

Tips & lessons from others

Who are some experts you can ask for their wisdom?

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helps me This method t expert of become a fas owing me this topic, all entify the to quickly id s in the major player ent points field at differ

to refine my le b a m a I , ll l Overa ding potentia n fi r fo s n o ti ques c tions in roboti future applica surgery 75

Additional examples

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PROGRESSION CURVES | method worksheet

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

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CASE STUDY | Crafting a new vision after Ubicom

The challenge: Following the steps of a successful research program

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The approach: Two days of expert prototyping

The result: A new vision, a new program

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Janus Cones Janus Cones looks backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events.

WhEn to use it

WhY it’s helpful

What you get

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Let’s look at an example

Mobility as a basic need Urban planners design for roads and transport

Dangers of driving Variety of car models

Cars as displays of wealth Concept of alone time in cars with self or others

Time spent traveling in cars

Car tinkering passions

Family trips & activities by car Infrastructure funding

Car as a lifestyle / status symbol Driving as a rite of passage (first license)

New paradigm of commuting

Parking is an issue Traffic jams Rush hour

Rising costs of car ownership Stress of car buying

Multiple cars in a family Different car Cars by life stage shipped as luggage

Seat belt safety campaigns

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Instructions

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s on the 1. Our priority is to focu cone on past, so we sketch a big se the whiteboard with its no pointing right to today

Mobility as a basic need Urban planners design for roads and transport

2. One of the first Cars as of comments is about displays wealth Ford’s assembly line, which led to a consumer choice in cars, so we note this historical point somewhere far left inside the cone

Dangers of driving Variety of car models

Time spent traveling in cars

Car tinkering passions

Concept of alone time in cars with self or others

Family trips & activities by car Infrastructure funding

Car as a lifestyle / status symbol Driving as a rite of passage (first license)

New paradigm of commuting

5. We ad d more d ata so that th e cone fee points ls comple to our tea te m

Parking is an issue Traffic jams Rush hour

Rising costs of car ownership

Multiple cars in a family Different car Cars by life stage shipped as luggage

Seat belt safety campaigns

e to help n o c e h t s ss rcs acro time increment a l a c i t r these raw ve 4. We d data points by er us clust Stress of car buying

3. After a few more data points, we see the timeframe emerge, so we note the major time periods in 20-year increments under the cone 84

Drawing insights & implications

Who remembers the history

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We discov er knows th the majority of our e last 15 y group ears well f personal e rom xpe movies an rience and then re l d grandp arent ane ies on knowledg cdotes for e about th e prior yea rs

d Due to our group’s varie backgrounds, the Janus Cones became a useful neutral tool to bring us quickly together Mobility as a basic need

Dangers of driving

Urban planners design for roads and transport

Variety of car models

Cars as displays of wealth Concept of alone time in cars with self or others

Time spent traveling in cars

Car tinkering passions

Family trips & activities by car Infrastructure funding

Car as a lifestyle / status symbol Driving as a rite of passage (first license)

New paradigm of commuting

Parking is an issue Traffic jams Rush hour

Rising costs of car ownership Stress of car buying

Multiple cars in a family Different car Cars by life stage shipped as luggage

Seat belt safety campaigns

We start to see a pattern about the changing definition of “premium” in cars, starting with premium as wealth displays 86

Tips & lessons from others

Company

> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >

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Additional examples

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JANUS CONES | method worksheet

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

—John Galsworthy

OPPORTUNITY ChaptER 4

Shortcuts Phase II: Opportunity

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Generational Arcs

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Future User

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Viewpoint: Acting out

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Futuretelling

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Phase II: Opportunity Now that you have developed some perspective about your the emerging opportunity?

PHASE II: OPPORTUNITY

this phase:

Generational Arcs WhEn to use it tracks population changes in terms of life stages and other generational variables.

WhY it’s helpful

What you get

Let’s look at an example

AGE DISTRIBUTION -table comes here!

Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls “Oxygenz Country Report: Germany”, 2010

Instructions

r

u s on o u c o f to ecide primary d e 1. W y as the r count opulation tp targe

nk 2. We rely on World Ba cords, reports, plus company re ces as our primary data sour

3. We dec ide both today to present ’s data an d the estima ted shift i n 20 years (without accountin g immigrat for any ion chang es)

wn Source: Work Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls “Oxygenz Country Report: Germany”, 2010 iteBankdodata, wr 4. We then some characteristics of the different generations

Drawing insights & implications

recent We see our sweet spot in customer growth is tied ’s closely with our country biggest population

In 20 y would ears, this sa me ag dr eg raisin op by nearl y a qu roup g som ec ar availa ble ma oncerns abo ter, rkets i u n the f t uture

Part of our group’s discussion Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls “Oxygenz Country Report: Germany”, 2010 focuses on how our company could better address changing generational needs

Tips & lessons from others

labels in your primary market?

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Additional examples

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GENERATIONAL ARCS | method worksheet

AGE DISTRIBUTION -table comes here!

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

Future User WhEn to use it a user within a targeted demographic by comparing similar groups over time.

WhY it’s helpful What you get

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Let’s look at an example

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1996

Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008

2008

2020

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Instructions

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primary r u o e b i r c age 1. We des day and note his to customer

is uss what h c s i d e es W .

2 s, and valu e c i o h c , e l lifesty o and how g a s r a e y e were 12 ed over tim g n a h c e v a they h e is timefram for h t k c i p e w ( les o R&D cyc w t n o d e s a b ny) our compa

ur earlier o m o r f ng we 3. Drawi research, l a n o i t a gener g future n u o y r ou describe ts today s i x e e h s a customer

5. We compare and contrast the two peop le at their starting ages and also at their targ et ages, looking to understand what ha s changed (and what has not changed) over ti me

4. The targ et age of our future user is the same as as today’s customer

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Drawing insights & implications

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ily and m a f e lu sers va eir lives Both u in th n o i t a c edu

By drawing from real pe ople, we build a r ealistic pers ona for a future user that ca n drive our R& D planning

and rs enjoy cricket se u th bo h g ou h Alt p under nds, they grew u a br n ig re fo op sh h s in India—whic n io it d n co t n re diffe ations about the ct pe ex r ei th ts ec aff ry ent, and indust m n er ov g , y om econ

Tips & lessons from others

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Additional examples

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FUTURE USER | method worksheet

__________________________ __________________________ __________________________ __________________________

__________________________ __________________________ __________________________ __________________________

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

VIEWPOINT | Acting out for the Finns

as a Finn.� The classic Finnish stereotype is someone who is

playing. We have to identify with

national characteristic is of polite business seriously and expect to

react to than a narrative could, so

way we present ourselves.

becomes much richer and more

may challenge that comfort zone.

In

particular,

the

FutureTelling

that can be learned. While I probably

and group role-playing. Like most something new, I can make it The

FutureTelling

method

can

many insights that acting out in new ideas—that may help all of us communicate an idea to another about what is right and what is true.

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Futuretelling Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best.

When to use it

Why it’s helpful

What you get

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Let’s look at an example

Source: William Cockayne, 2008

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Instructions

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1. We decide to show the cal doctor performing a criti surgery on the battlefield.

2. Our story s: had four role ical a doctor, med tient, assistant, pa ldier. and fellow so

5-6. We used simple props, such as giant paper scalpel, to help add some hum or to our storytelling.

3-4. E v the pa eryone, incl tient, had so uding to say me t impor hat conveye lines tance of usi d the portab ng le ener gy ge a nerato r.

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Drawing insights & implications

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y to pla e l o r a e had n, and it n o y r Eve uctio d o r p a team in the us more as d unite

e d mor e n i a We g y for the nd th empa ituation, a s ns user’s sign begi de g good erstandin d ds by un uman nee h basic

Once our audience saw—instead of hearing us describe —the user’s need in context, they be gan to understand the critical value of our opportunity

Tips & lessons from others

When do you see live storytelling used in your What makes it work?

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Additional examples

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FUTURETELLING | METHOD WORKSHEET

Describe your future user in one sentence or less. What does your user care about most?

What do you want your audience to understand about

future? Keep it to a simple scene or two, if possible.

What other people (or objects) will your user interact with in How do you want the audience to respond at the end of the

Š 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

—Walt Disney

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SOLUTION ChaptER 5

Shortcuts Phase III: Solution

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White Spots

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Paper Mockups

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Dark Horse Prototype

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Change Paths

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Case study: Yle

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Phase III: Solution The third phase in the Foresight Framework brings you to a solution. your industry, users, organization, and individual skills.

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PHASE III: SOLUTION

White Spots

Paper Mockups

Change Paths

is the Dark Horse Prototype.

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White Spots White Spots is a strategic method for studying the opportunity space

WHY IT'S HELPFUL

WHEN TO USE IT What you get

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Let’s look at an example

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Instructions

rawing 1. I start by d a big cross

5. I iden ti example fy an extreme for each quadra corner t n o pretes t the ma t’s trix

6. I add many examples on the matrix, using arrows to show movement

2-3. I pic k utility a cost and s the top two dimensi ons from my previous Context Maps to create my two axes

ne white spot 7-9. I mark o hat could and ponder w ist today realistically ex stry vision as a new indu

Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009

tart simply 4. I decide to s and with military dpoints for en s a n ia il iv c st high and utility again low cost

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Drawing insights & implications

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ual helped This 2x2 vis plex story me tell a com arket about the m and opportunity in terms of competition f est criteria o the two bigg e cost and us Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009

Although I develope d a Progression Curv e of flying cars from the movies and books, I focus on real solutions in my White Spots analysis 132

Tips & lessons from others

Before your team picks, which two dimensions would you start your analysis with?

Why?

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Additional examples

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WHITE SPOTS | method worksheet

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

Paper Mockups Paper Mockups asks participants to physically model a future system.

When to use it

Why it’s helpful

What you get

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Let’s look at an example

Source: Ming-Li Chai, 2008

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Instructions

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e e to build th 1. We choos because we m te s y s e r enti erstand how want to und interact ts r a p s u io r a the v

2-3. We use materia ls nearby to build qu ickly, including string an d colored paper

4. One of our team members sits down to expl ain our idea to a group of coll eagues

Drawing insights & implications

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ockup in Just having a physical m riosity hand generated intense cu ally, we among colleagues—norm tion have to fight for their atten ows during the usual slidesh

ful, While sketching is help a 3D building our idea into ghts object gave us more insi n idea into our own innovatio

The act of buildin g also helped us understand m ore about our target users and how they might react to dif ferent parts 141

Tips & lessons from others

How might you embed paper mockups into your early market research or

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Additional examples

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PAPER MOCKUPS | method worksheet

Feel free to use this piece of paper in your mockup.

DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE A variation of the Paper Mockup, Dark Horse prototypes are threedimensional physical prototypes that are built to explore a previous

When to use it

Why it’s helpful

What you get

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Instructions

Drawing insights & implications

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We made one d ramatic yet im portant change: by mov ing the string fr om the people to the hou ses, we emphasi zed the social network (and transfer of knowledge) am ong the houses

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DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE | method worksheet

Tear your previous Paper Mockup in half.

Discuss.

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Change Paths Change Paths are data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.

When to use it

Why it’s helpful What you get

Let’s look at an example

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

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Instructions

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rst step i f e h t e ot 2. We n any can do on p each com to action at the th their pa e timeline th start of

nt s take two differe bu ir A d an g in oe 1. B one imagines the : re tu fu e th of s view nt airplane for oi -p to tin po e at ultim her imagines a ot e th d an s er om cust ubs n major airport h ee tw be er n li ry luxu

g e two bi h t k r a 3. We m each company s r decision to achieve thei X ke must ta visions with a ve the respecti ong on l a r e h t fur e timelin

4. Boeing als o pursued new technologies and materia ls for greater airplane efficiency, w hich was larg ely out of thei control—a dec r ision they co uld have plac off their path ed 152

Drawing insights & implications

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ame e, s e h l t that t multip d e z r ppo eali s We r e can su , vision g r futu ompetin c even

Both companie s achieved the future they w anted by doing things that they could affect d irectly

Boeing actua lly started wit ha different visio n that crysta llized into the 787.

Only in hind sight does the future look like a cle ar and straight path!

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Tips & lessons from others

take tomorrow to set you on this future path?

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Additional examples

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CHANGE PATHS | method worksheet

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

CASE STUDY | How YLE defined a new foresight capability Towards participatory renewal

Marketplace challenges

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Heralds of change

A map of current practices

A sense of shared ownership

Using stories to communicate context

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Profiles of the future audience

The importance of real-world evidence

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Building the prototype The Four Rooms concept

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FROM PROTOTYPE TO VISION TO ACTION

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— Bill Taylor

— George Bernard Shaw

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TEAM ChaptER 6

Shortcuts Phase IV: Team

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Buddy Checks

168 177

Voice Stars

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Case study: DARPA PMs

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Crowd Clovers

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Case study: DARPA lessons 197

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Phase IV: Team You have the start of a great idea.

Now you want to know: how do I take this idea back to my group?

How can I take it inside my organization, so the idea may Or what if I don’t have a team yet?

What should I do next?

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PHASE IV: TEAM

this phase:

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Buddy Checks Buddy Checks evaluates potential new co-founders, partners, and teammates by showing their reaction level to new ideas.

When to use it

Why it’s helpful

What you get

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Let’s look at an example

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4

2

1

3

5

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Instructions

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r rough u o t n e s e r d teer to p sse preten e 1. I volun J d n a a Ann idea, and e know w s e u g a e oll to be two c e join our efforts hop whom we 6

4

2

1

3

7

rehearsal 3. After some more d two with Anna, we fin pect will scenarios that we ex we want prompt the reaction lleague, from our second co as a who we’d like to join group leader

5

t colleague 2. We agree our firs 4 and 5 sits between levels action is to because his first re am and his volunteer for the te to suggest later reactions are ts to refine minor improvemen our raw idea

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Drawing insights & implications 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

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ers have h t o e z i l We rea nt gut an insta ideas, w e n o t reaction eals their v e r h c i h w s about g n i l e e f true along playing 2

1

6

4

3

5

7

The extra rehea rsals lets us test a few diff erent ways of telling our idea to generate the higher level reaction— instead of sta rting at a lower level and working up to the reaction we wanted from the start of the interaction 173

Tips & lessons from others

think you sit at most commonly?

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Additional examples

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BUDDY CHECKS | method worksheet

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CASE STUDY | A job posting for DARPA Are you a scientist or engineer with a radical idea (or ideas) that you believe could provide meaningful change of lasting Would you like to lead the country’s most capable academic and industrial experts to make that idea become reality in a period of If so, you should consider

(DARPA) as a program manager.

A DARPA program manager is‌ > An idea generator > A technical expert > An entrepreneur > A visionary > A patriot dedicated to national service Source: The Economist magazine, 2008

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VOICE Stars VOICE Stars is a talent diagnostic that measures the leadership aptitude for radical innovation of an individual or team.

When to use it

Why it’s helpful What you get

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Let’s look at an example

Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

Instructions

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w to dra s i p e st first tar shape r u O 1. gs rlyin e d n u

the 6. We discus s different acti vities our group do es that helps fos ter a climate for each attribute

E a VOIC ach e t i r w e e 2-3. W at the end of e t k attribu five tic k r a m d line line an r scoring per fo marks 4-5. We take turns scor ing ourselves across all the attributes, drawing a connecting line between individual scores 181

Drawing insights & implications

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gularly e r s i m a e e of our t iscuss how we Only on and we d , s u o est news i t c a a l e h vor t r t for us im to hea rely on h d scan the marke n updates a

to t tough i d n i e f We mples w a x e f o think or start e k o v o r do to p ns, which io new act good a leads to n about io discuss tivities c a r e h t e what o people w s n e v e d an help u o t t e g should a this are n i w o gr

We re al scores ize our tea m m being ost high o n c helps urious, wh explai ich n all ap precia why we t new t opics e exploring an possib ilities d togeth er 183

Tips & lessons from others

Who do you know that best exhibits all four

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Additional examples

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VOICE STARS | method worksheet

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

CASE STUDY | Program Managers at DARPA

The DARPA ethos The basic profile Where to find them

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Crowd Clovers Crowd Clovers maps the various related components of a personal network focused on advancing new innovation ideas.

When to use it

Why it’s helpful

What you get

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Let’s look at an example

Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

Instructions

le who p o e p e n the rite th 2. I w me most i e = e pl provok eaflet (pur el purpl ) e provok

CONNECTORS

CATALYSTS

4. I write the peopl e realize o ur effort who s and pus us towar h d action in the re leaflet (r d ed = rea lize)

ENABLERS

1. I first draw ra the outline fo big four-leaf clover, using rs different colo per leaflet to signify the n network actio y I desire for m unit 6. I draw boxes arou nd the people whom we rela PROMOTERS te to formally (like our boss and other division lead s)

le who grow 3. I write the peop ideas with and expand our sources in the access to more re en = grow) green leaflet (gre

5. I write the peo broadcast an ple who d circulate o ur ideas within their networ ks in the blue le aflet (blue = broadcast)

Drawing insights & implications > > > >

> >

> > >

CONNECTORS

people ur w e f o w I kno lp promote s to e u who h nd expose a n ideas etworks, a n other ecide to d r by area I e this yea v o impro a person t g er hirin ur develop o build nity u comm

ENABLERS

CATALYSTS

e that w e e s o eved t the same l i l e r I was t rely on for al e l p o o e n fp did oup o efforts r g l l sma novation our in

I see w form e rely mos al t netwo ties for tw heavily on r o area find k action, resou name s of r ly to c us to execu es and to push te

PROMOTERS

Tips & lessons from others

Which quadrant would your colleagues place you in most?

Additional examples

CROWD CLOVERS | method worksheet

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

CASE STUDY | DARPA’s lessons for industry 1. Organize by grand challenge

3. Live the mission

2. Maintain short contracts

4. Operate as an open network

7. Keep a short decision chain

6. Sharpen vision at the start

5. Hire for vision

Richard N. Foster

King James Bible

VISION ChaptER 7

Shortcuts Phase V: Vision

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Vision Statement

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Case study: DARPA visions 212

DARPA Hard Test

213

Case study: DARPA criteria 227 Case study: EPCOT vision

228 230 200

Phase V: VIsion With a team in place, your next step is to turn your big idea into a vision that will excite more people, mobilize further action, and ultimately secure funding and support as part of a larger campaign.

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PHASE V: VISION

this phase:

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Vision Statement A Vision Statement provides a short vivid description of your idea in order to inspire, energize, and help others create a mental picture of your target future opportunity.

When to use it

Why it’s helpful What you get

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Let’s look at an example

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Instructions

→

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rring back to the 1. We start by refe e Futuretelling story we told in th idea. The Dark exercise about our us focus on what Horse method lets innovation. is essential to our

the ensions in im d e th e s r u 2. We then hat made ou w in la p x e ps to .

Context Ma opportunity ld o b a h c u s idea 3. Looking at the Janus Con es help us understan d why our vision sho uld exist n ow

.

5. We name four companies which would be ideal o partners for us, tw y of which are alread working with us on other projects.

ression 6. The Prog s estimate u lp e h s e v Cur date. a realistic

e 4. We decide to nam st only two popular pa examples from our Progression Curves analysis to not rs. overwhelm our use e discuss mor 7. We need to ps from our te s ig b o tw which will show we Change Path on track to are directly big vision. achieve this

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Drawing insights & implications

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to the d e t c a re uickly ion of our q e c n e di ript Our au geeky desc emove jargon r nd eded to long a e n e w , so vision plify it. m and si

at We also learned th g people liked hearin specific companies, which added more validity to our crazy idea.

r Once we hooked ou , audience’s interest they wanted to know what we would do next, so our team had some more work to do to complete the vision statement.

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Tips & lessons from others

Why is your team’s

Additional examples

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VISION STATEMENT | method worksheet

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

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CASE STUDY | Technology visions at DARPA

Legged Squad Support System

Photo: Jeff Corwin Photography, Boeing

Augmented Cognition program

Photo: Boston Dynamics

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DARPA Hard Test Adapted from DARPA, the DARPA Hard Test describes four qualities of a radical innovation vision: farreaching, technically challenging, multidisciplinary, and actionable.

When to use it

Why it’s helpful

What you get

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The notion of DARPA Hard

Four vision components 214

Š 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

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Let’s look at an example

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Instructions

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he affles t b t a h t dea C. An i am scientific re mainst nity commu

nce fiction ie c s f o f f tu D. S tars to travel to s 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

bold A. A contemporary could idea that humans er control nuclear pow ically safely and strateg B. A stretch goal that built on previous effort s to put a satellite and man into orbit E. An ambitious goal to build next generation city services for one region

7 6 5 4 3 2 1

radical D. Requires in many ts n e m e c n a adv life-support m o r f s m te sys lsion to to ship propu ring manufactu C. No prove n solution st date that r everse or st o op human ag ing A. Requires inventing n ew precision tech niques for mass produc ed explosives B. Difficult problem without computer aid, drawing on earlier success of the first Russian cosmonaut E. Requires the integration of existing pervasive and physical network infrastructu res 220

n only be D. Vision ca e cooperation th y b d e v ie ach erse groups iv d le ip lt u of m 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

cepts A. Assimilated con l and leaders from al d scientific fields an lines engineering discip B. Helped create a new field of aerospace engineering C. Fostering a new scienti fic discipline of geroscience E. Joint coalition betw een different government groups, city planners , and businesses

221

al research C. Biomedic ailable from v a w o n ts n gra ps several grou

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oval A. President’s appr d expedited efforts an ide funding nation-w B. Established a new U.S. space agency ca lled NASA to centralize an d mobilize efforts D. First ste p was to co nduct feasibility study and provoke pos sible partn ers

E. A committee-driven approach managed by a global technology com pany 222

Drawing insights & implications

Manhattan Project

Man on the moon

FarReaching

Doubling human life

Technically Challenging

100-Year Spaceship

MultiDisciplinary

Barcelona City Protocol

Actionable

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Tips & lessons from others

Which dimension of the DARPA Hard Test will be most challenging for

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DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet #1

© 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

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DARPA HARD TEST | method worksheet #2

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CASE STUDY | The Heilmeier Catechism at DARPA

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CASE STUDY | The original vision of EPCOT A grand challenge

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Was the vision DARPA Hard?

The vision of EPCOT today

Pathfinders When to use it formal and informal rules within an organization or network.

Why it’s helpful

What you get

230

Let’s look at an example

Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

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Instructions

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line, 1. On the straight rd we note the standa milestones an idea ch must undergo, whi ng usually starts duri at an ideation session nual our company’s an ite R&D planning offs

3. We then trace each idea’s progress, marking specific events in its timeline

2. We select tw o ideas that w ere pu the past year: Carleton, 2012 rsued in oneSource: whicTamara h s ta lled after several month s and another which quickly got th e attention of the CTO

4. We drew th e path up above the “wa ter line” when a partic ular event moved the idea ahead and drew the path dow the idea slowed n when down for any reason

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Drawing insights & implications

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r We also realized that othe n avenues for execution ca open up, such as a new seed fund established within another division

The starting proposal was a good reminder about the value of informal actions to our team Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

Our engineering-driven culture often leads to a technology idea looking for a user for a while 235

Tips & lessons from others

What type of navigator (e.g., landmark, route, map, wanderer, hunter) are you at work?

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Additional examples

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Pathfinders | method worksheet #2

Š

APPENDIX Shortcuts Sponsors

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Development team

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Research partners

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Terms of use

248

Suggested readings

249

Data sources

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240

About our sponsors The playbook team gratefully acknowledges generous support from Tekes and the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) in Finland.

TEKES

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Lappeenranta University of Technology

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About the development team Tamara Carleton, Ph.D.

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William Cockayne, Ph.D.

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Antti-Jussi Tahvanainen, Ph.D.

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About our research partners Vesa Harmaakorpi, D.Sc.

Tuija Oikarinen, D.Sc.

Saku J. Mäkinen, Ph.D.

246

Pekka Berg, Ph.D.

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Terms of use non-commercial use

Licensing terms

Internal development

248

Suggested readings Over the years, we have used a wide

Looking Forward: A Guide to Futures Research.

Phase I: Perspective

articles, industry reports, multimedia, and other materials with business leaders and university students. Below is a brief selection for further reading and to complement your own efforts in foresight and long-term innovation. This list will evolve.

Foresight Thinking Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era (Volume I)

he Death and Life of

Harvard Business Review.

Phase III: Solution The Back of the Napkin: The Shell Global Solving Problems and Selling Ideas with Scenarios to 2025: The future business Pictures

Phase II: Opportunity

Harvard Business Review.

choices.

250

Phase IV: Team

Phase V: Vision The Department Remaking Our World, From the Internet

Made Others Die

251

Data sources: Emerging technologies TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY

Technology Review

252

Data sources: Location & population ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base

Eurostat

253

Data sources: Future trends Global Business Network

PricewaterhouseCoopers Center for Technology & Innovation

Institute for the Future

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Data sources: Finland ETLA, THE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE FINNISH ECONOMY

Finnish Science and Technology Information Service

National Board of Patents and Registration of Finland (NBPR)

Statistics Finland

Population Research Institute

Tekes

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