SPRING 2025 EDITION
THE POWER OF PROTEIN
Despite turbulent political and uncertain economic environments, we can remain optimistic. Farmers and processors continue to position New Zealand beef as a dominant player in the global beef protein market, with record prices currently being paid for livestock. Thanks to this combined effort, our industry is now generating approximately $12.3 billion in value - and long may it continue!
I recently had this “Power of Protein” debate with two visiting friends, who happen to be vegans. They highlighted challenges faced by meat companies around capacity and sustainability. I countered with the evident demand for beef and shared with them our sustainability report, which you can read on our website. I also emphasized the fact that agriculture is the backbone of the New Zealand economy, supporting 92,000 jobs nationwide in the Red Meat Sector alone. They didn’t seem convinced, so as they headed off into the sunset in their trusty electric vehicle, I jotted the best reason of all:
HUNGRY VEGANS
Vegan kai lovers
Taste buds found
Travel to discover
Tasty new ground
Electric car stops
On synthetic seats
With ferry hops
In-between tweets
Noses held high
Sniff southern treats
A gravy steak pie
Rumble says eat
Next morn an ache
Awakes them at dawn
+ GREG’S COLUMN + A BUYER’S PERSPECTIVE
With dreams of sausage
Eggs nice and warm
Mainland aged cheddar
During the day
A tempting pleasure
To make the EV sway
Finally at dinner time
This rumbling a roar
Roast beef with red wine
Vegans no more!
HEADS UP: WAIKATO PC1 UPDATE FOR FARMERS
Beef + Lamb New Zealand, alongside Federated Farmers, has been actively involved in the Environment Court process for Waikato Plan Change 1 (PC1), which will bring new rules for farming in the Waikato and Waipā catchments. A final decision is expected in December 2025, and it’s likely that most farms over 20ha will need a farm environment plan and may face new requirements around stock exclusion, fertiliser use, and land use changes. Some farms may also need resource consents depending on intensity. While the rules aren’t final yet, now’s a good time to start thinking about what this could mean for your farm. Keep an eye on B+LNZ updates and check the Waikato Regional Council website for more info.
GREG’S COLUMN
An “old school” winter is now behind us – one with frosts, sunny days, and cooler temperatures that gave the season a “normal” feel.
And normal seems to be the phrase of choice when looking at long-range forecasts for spring and summer. The North Island is expected to experience above-average temperatures and nearnormal rainfall during the 2025/2026 spring and summer. Specifically, forecasts suggest a strong chance of average temperatures, with a possibility of some heavy rain events. No doubt someone’s uncle’s sore right knee or a cousin’s dog groomer’s achy back will have them rolling their eyes and declaring that a drought is imminent. Either way, it’s out of our control - and as always, farmers will adapt and head into 2026 in the best shape possible.
Schedules are currently at record highs, and replacement values have reached unprecedented levels. The question remains: when and where will these trends stabilise, and what will the new normal look like regarding schedule levels and stock replacement values? Dairy farmers typically have greater visibility into their future milk prices, whereas sheep and beef farmers face far more uncertainty around future meat schedules. What I’ll attempt to do here is offer some insight into how I see the next 12 months evolving for red meat farmers - with the caveat that one off events like COVID or a weather bomb can change the landscape overnight.
Looking ahead to the upcoming season, it’s important to recognise that the industry is unlikely to see a significant increase in cattle available for slaughter. Supply is expected to remain largely consistent with this season. Bobby calf numbers suggest fewer calves were born, and there’s been an increase in the number of calves reared - which bodes well for adult cattle supply in 18 to 24 months. However, this won’t translate into any substantial uplift in supply for the next season. As such, pricing is likely to remain at or near current levels, and traditional downward trends may not occur due to the anticipated limited supply.
When making decisions around processing your bulls and/or prime early next season, I suggest prioritising the availability of replacements, sticking to your normal kill pattern, and communicating with your livestock buyer regarding schedule forecasts and availability of space. I’ll again be committing to processing dairy farmers’ service bulls from mid-December, which will significantly reduce available space for farmed bulls through to February.
Increased supply from late November to December is expected to impact the schedule, though the extent of this effect remains uncertain. Historically, there has been an average 80 cents per kilogram (cpk) difference between early October bull schedules and those in late December. Prime cattle, which are less abundant in spring and summer than bulls, typically show a 50 cpk difference. Last season, these differences were less pronounced due to favourable summer conditions in certain areas, enabling many suppliers to maintain stock into the new year. So, as usual, the weather may dictate if space condenses in late spring and early summer, and subsequently whether schedules will drop away at traditional levels. In my view, it’s best to contact your Greenlea buyer as soon as possible, pre-book your bulls and prime, and go early to avoid the issues that can arise deeper into the summer.
Next year’s cow run is expected to closely resemble this season’s, with fewer cows available than historical norms and significant competition among processors for the available supply. However, processors may reach a limit on how much downward pressure they can absorb. If market conditions become unsupportive of higher schedules, it is likely we will see a deceleration or even a reduction in schedule increases based on low supply levels.
Starting 3 June 2025, a new Animal Status Declaration (ASD) became mandatory for all farmers to utilise when presenting animals for slaughter. This update - essential for maintaining access to the European Union market - emphasises accurate reporting of antimicrobial use in your cattle. A transition period is in place to 30 September 2025, during which old ASDs can still be used. Updated booklets or E-ASDs are available through OSPRI or some agricultural agencies such as meat processors.
From 1st October 2025, only the new ASD will be accepted. If you send in stock with an old ASD, the MPI vet will require you to send a new ASD before the product from your animal can be released to the appropriate market. This will also delay payment of proceeds to you from this animal. I encourage you to familiarise yourself with the changes now to ensure a smooth transition. You can print the new ASD by going to the MPI website or follow the link below.
Greg Clark
A BUYER’S PERSPECTIVE - SPRING OUTLOOK:
CONFIDENCE IN THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY
As we step into spring, there’s a renewed sense of optimism in the agriculture sector across the Waipā, Northern King Country, and West Coast regions - driven by confidence in the outlook ahead and favourable market dynamics across the board.
The dairy sector, often an indicator for rural confidence, is currently enjoying a solid footing. Payout announcements from a range of dairy companies have been met with cautious optimism on-farm, with dairy farmers offloading any cows that are not pulling their weight in early herd testing’s. This is reflected at our end with good flows of dairy cows processed, while the price for their meat remains high.
This upward trend in confidence is being mirrored in the beef sector, where higher beef prices are giving a real boost to farmgate returns. The lift in pricing has brought with it a noticeable shift in rearing activity, with strong numbers of young animals coming through. Calf rearers and finishers alike are showing a willingness to invest earlylargely supported by the good returns being seen in the prime and bull markets, and the ongoing strong demand for export meat.
My area has been active and consistent in their efforts to finish and move stock as animals are ready, particularly around the bull and prime trade leading into our peak kill. Last season saw a strong supply of bulls direct to Greenlea, and that momentum has carried through into spring, with plans already being made with clients for this coming season. Farmers have responded well to the regulations of export markets, and the quality and consistency of supply has been a standout. That’s good news for all involved - from rearers through to finishers and processors alike - as it allows for better planning, more efficient scheduling, and ultimately stronger returns across the production chain.
It’s also worth noting that the bull procurement seen in recent seasons has set a solid benchmark. With strong pricing and ongoing demand, farmers who have invested in rearing and feeding quality bulls, steers, and heifers are now seeing the benefits. These better returns are being recognised and should provide ongoing incentives for continued investment in animal health, nutrition, and finishing systems.
Looking ahead, all signs point to a season that offers both opportunity and reward for those wellpositioned. While challenges will always remain, the fundamentals currently in play are giving producers across both dairy and beef a solid foundation to work from.
In the regions I coverwhere mixed farming systems are the backbone of many operations - this alignment of confidence across sectors is especially important. It allows for flexibility in decision-making and encourages a longer-term view of farm profitability and sustainability.
While speaking with one of our long-standing suppliers in the King Country, he has raised concerns that are becoming more commonly heard across the region: the steady shift of traditional cattle and sheep country into longterm pine forests for carbon farming. It’s been a gradual change, but it’s picking up in pace. Some of the farms that used to turn out strong lines of prime cattle are now locked up in forestry blocks, and that productive land isn’t coming back. There’s a real sense that we’re losing some of the best breeding and finishing ground that’s been farmed for generations. For those of us who work closely with livestock every day, it’s frustrating to see good pasture disappear and stock numbers tighten as a result. It’s something we’re keeping a close eye on, because it affects the flow of cattle, the future supply, and the wider rural economic situation.
As spring growth kicks into gear and livestock flows increase, the industry as a whole appears well-positioned to make the most of the favourable conditions. Farmers should take encouragement from the strength of current market signals and continue to engage proactively with their Greenlea agent to maximise outcomes from their stock.
One of the key things giving our clients added confidence right now is the strong set of values held by the Greenlea team. When you’re dealing with a company that’s committed to consistency, fairness, and long-term relationships - especially through volatile markets - it builds real trust. That backing allows us as agents to stand by our word, knowing our clients will be supported all the way from the paddock to the processor. It’s that integrity, combined with strong market conditions, that’s giving farmers the confidence to invest and grow this season.
In my eyes, the agricultural sector is currently sitting in a very strong position. With further optimism on the horizon, I’m looking forward to kicking off the new 2026 meat season.
by Sam Burrows
Sam Burrows is our livestock buyer for Te Awamutu, Southwest Waikato, and Northern King Country. His extensive area of operation places him in a unique position to service a large number of dairy farmers, as well as bull and prime finishers. Sam was asked to contribute to this bulletin edition to provide a ground-level, frontline perspective on the state of the industry.
MARKETING UPDATE
Key markets for New Zealand beef exports have been reliant over the past quarter despite the disruptions of increased U.S. tariffs being imposed for the second time this year.
Generally, markets have paused, assessed, and then resumed trade, with limited effect on pricing trends, which continue to mostly improve.
NZ beef exports to all major markets have dropped in 2025, with the newly emerging United Kingdom market being the stand-out exception. This market has the potential to be the third largest purchaser of NZ beef (after the USA and China) and provides a great alternative for a wide range of cuts from all grades, plus trimmings for kebabs and burgers.
The big question looking forward is whether prime pricing can hold, as steak cuts have risen
by over 20% so far this year and may have limited further upside, while steer trimming prices have come under pressure in recent months. In general, the price of beef in many of the markets we supply to is making headlines, given the overall surge in the cost of living. We can only hope demand remains as insatiable for New Zealand beef as it has historically proven to be.
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