Swine Grist - Spring 2020

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Swine Grist

A PERIODIC NEWSLETTER PRODUCED BY GRAND VALLEY FORTIFIERS VOLUME 22, ISSUE 1 | SPRING 2020

Dear Friends, In many parts of Ontario, this winter has been one of much less snow and warmer temperatures than we’re used to. Talking with producers this month, many hope that we won’t end up “paying for” this easy winter, once the spring months arrive. Thus far 2020 has definitely been an unpredictable year with the challenges of COVID -19 now being felt around the world and a surprisingly suppressed hog price, despite the significant decrease in the China hog population due to ASF. We pray the price will increase very soon as pork producers everywhere are feeling the pinch. In spite of all these challenges we push on and work hard at the prospect of what the future may hold and reflect on the Lord’s goodness to us over the many years. This is especially real for all of us at Grand Valley Fortifiers this year as June 2020 will mark 60 years of us being in business. While it has not always been easy, it’s always been rewarding to work with those whom I believe to be the best part of our population, the farmers. We have enjoyed 60 years of business and relationships with many of you and for that we are extremely grateful. Our new 60th anniversary logo (displayed here) will begin popping up on all our communications shortly and I encourage you to stay tuned for a potential anniversary event later this year! Thank you to all of you who have made 60 years of GVF possible with your patronage. Sincerely, Jim Ross, Founder & Chairman

ECONOMIC IMPACTS AT THE HAND OF INVISIBLE VIRUSES

by: IAN ROSS President & CEO, Grand Valley Fortifiers

T

he outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Wuhan, starting on December 31st, 2019 has dominated news headlines so far in 2020. At the time of the writing of this article, COVID-19 has spread to 25 countries, with over 100,000 confirmed cases and over 3000 confirmed deaths attributed to the virus. Certainly, our thoughts and prayers are with all of the families that have been impacted by this new virus. The human impact of this virus is significant and tragic. The economic impact of COVID-19 is now beginning to be felt. Many airlines have cancelled flight schedules to China and more recently additional countries, travellers are now wary to travel to numerous countries in the world and airlines are predicting a 30 billion dollar impact on their industry. In the last week of February global stock markets dropped in value significantly (7 trillion dollars) with major U.S. indices (Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq) down 10 - 14% from their recent highs. It is at times like this that we are reminded just how many goods are sourced from China. With factories of all kinds being shuttered in various parts of China, keeping employees at home to mitigate the spread of the virus, global shortages of many types of goods are starting to be felt. Many brands of electronics are manufactured in China, including the Apple iPhone. Human and livestock grade pharmaceuticals, feed ingredients, including vitamins are all sourced from China. With shortages and delays already occurring, vitamin prices are back on the rise. Empty sea containers are piling up in Asia as North American goods continue to GRAND VALLEY FORTIFIERS PO Box 726 Cambridge ON N1R 5W6 1-800-567-4400 grandvalley.com

Swine-producing counties surveyed by Nong Cai Bao Dian journalist: Numbers are current swine inventory as percent of “normal” Cited by Dim Sums “80% Decline in Pigs in Country Survey by Journalist” December 30th 2019.

head overseas but the volume of Chinese goods coming back are curtailed. With all of the news focus on COVID-19, African Swine Fever has taken a back seat on main stream and social media. None the less, the pork supply situation in China remains dire. Although the Chinese Ministry of agriculture and Rural Affairs states that “only” 40% of the national pig population has been eliminated due to ASF and that production is rebounding, the facts on the ground suggest that not only are herd rebuilding efforts being severely challenged, journalistic calculations indicate that up to 80% of the Chinese swine herd has been eliminated in various regions of the country. In November 2019, Rabobank Research indicated that 50% of the Chinese sow herd had been eliminated but Brett Stuart, president of the market research and analysis firm, Global AgriTrends, estimates that about two Ian Ross, President | Jim Ross, Chairman | David Ross, VP & CMO Dr. Martin Clunies | Bruce Schumann | Adam Totafurno | Kayla Silva, Monogastric Nutritionists Michael Peckover, Publisher


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