Page 1

Japan

Stephen Sexauer GIC Central Banking Series Banque de France Paris, France 10 March 2014


• Population

Japan: A Glance1

o Total: 127 million o Employed: 63 million

• 2013 GDP (current prices) o Yen: 483,250 billion o USD: 5,007 billion

• Yen/USD

o Today: 102.6 o 20 year low (1998) 147.3 o 20 year high (2011) 75.8

• Real GDP growth since 1980: 2.00% • Stock market returns 1980-2013 o Nominal price return: 2.5% per year.

1

All data from IMF World Economic Outlook, updated January 2014. GDP data for 2013 are IMF estimates.

2

Stephen Sexauer GIC Global Banking Series Banque de France Paris, France 10-11 March


Japan 1990 to 2013: 24 years and 17 governments.

Annual since 1990. Real GDP: 1.1%. Productivity: 1.0%. Employment: 0.1% 11.35 11.30 11.25

Japan Productivity: 1% per year GDP per person employed (log scale) 1990 - 2013

11.20 11.15 11.10 11.05 11.00 10.95 10.90 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Japan Employment (000) 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

source: Conference Board TEDI data base. January 2014

3

Stephen Sexauer GIC Global Banking Series Banque de France Paris, France 10-11 March


Growth, Debt, and Abenomics • Arrow #1, bold monetary easing: o Has Japan moved from debt-deflation to growth-with-inflation? o Has the Central Bank shock been sufficient to dislodge 20 years of deflationary expectations in prices and wages? • Arrow #2, flexible fiscal policy: o Will more short term stimulus work? o Will the short-term stimulus proposed be followed by fiscal consolidation? Is the consumption tax rate hike sufficient to do this? o Will a primary fiscal surplus be achieved? Will it be achieved before Japan needs to borrow in foreign markets? • Arrow #3, structural change and growth* o Will productivity per person increase above the two-decade average of just 1% and how? o Can a shrinking trend in labor force participation be offset by increase in female labor force participation and increasing retirement past 65? 4

Stephen Sexauer GIC Global Banking Series Banque de France Paris, France 10-11 March


Stephen Sexauer Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC (AllianzGI) (2003–2012) Mr. Sexauer is a Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer for Multi-Asset US at Allianz Global Investor U.S. LLC (previously the Chief Investment Officer of Allianz Global Investors Solutions U.S. LLC, which merged into Allianz Global Investors U.S. in January 2013). Prior to Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC, Mr. Sexauer was a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management from July 1989-March 2002. Mr. Sexauer worked at Salomon Brothers from November 1986June 1989. Mr. Sexauer previously worked in Economic Consulting at Merrill Lynch Economics and at Wharton Econometrics. Mr. Sexauer holds an MBA from the University of Chicago with concentrations in economics and statistics and a BS from the University of Illinois in economics. Economic data in this presentation are derived from internal research, publicly available statistics published by Bloomberg, the US Federal Reserve, OFHEO, the US Department of Commerce, and the International Monetary Fund. The material contains the current opinions of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate.

5

Stephen Sexauer GIC Global Banking Series Banque de France Paris, France 10-11 March

Session iv s sexauer  
Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you