It’s About China + Oil, Not Trump (Yet)

It’s About China + Oil, Not Trump (Yet) Don Rissmiller Strategas Research Partners (212) 906-0134 drissmiller@strategasrp.com

It’s About China + Oil, Not Trump (Yet) • Confidence elevated in the U.S. (soft data).

• Stock market rally.

• But Confidence also elevated abroad.

• Confidence more correlated with nominal activity since 1999.

• We’ve learned to like a little nominal, with inflation low.

• Global nominal is driven by Oil + China.

• German confidence up.

• Even in Japan, deflation has ended!

Confidence Up Here & Abroad

Japan Growth On a Solid Run …

… and a Notable Price Level Story

It’s About China + Oil, Not Trump (Yet) • 2017 about a global nominal recovery.

• That buys time for U.S. fiscal policy.

• Tax reform / cuts, deregulating energy, deregulating financials.

• No full monetary offset.

• Trade policy still a risk.

• 2018 is about U.S. fiscal policy boost.

• House vs. Senate bill