Debt Rating Agency Conference Demirali Presentation

Debt Rating Agency Conference February 29, 2012

Peter Demirali Managing Director and Portfolio Manager (800) 257-7013 ext. 322 Peter.Demirali@Cumber.com Twitter: @CumberlandADV

Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236

New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360

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Average Cumulative Default Rates

Source: Moody’s Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236

New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360

(800) 257-7013

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Growth of Securitization

Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236

New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360

(800) 257-7013

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Asset Backed Issuance

Source: Bloomberg Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236

New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360

(800) 257-7013

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Ratings Downgrades Balance Distribution of Originally AAA Bonds by Worst Current Rating Investment Grade

Non-Investment Grade

Sector

Vintage

AAA

AA

A

BBB

BB

B

CCC

C

Prime

2003

45%

16%

23%

12%

3%

1%

0%

0%

2004

14%

11%

21%

26%

15%

9%

4%

0%

2005

2%

2%

4%

7%

10%

20%

29%

26%

2006

4%

0%

6%

1%

1%

9%

12%

66%

2007

5%

1%

3%

1%

2%

4%

17%

68%

All

8%

4%

7%

6%

5%

8%

16%

46%

2003

27%

23%

23%

19%

3%

4%

0%

0%

2004

6%

6%

9%

24%

16%

19%

15%

5%

2005

1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

7%

45%

42%

2006

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

2%

31%

66%

2007

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

27%

71%

All

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

3%

31%

60%

2003

10%

14%

22%

23%

20%

7%

1%

3%

2004

23%

26%

22%

7%

11%

6%

3%

1%

2005

9%

12%

8%

4%

15%

16%

21%

15%

2006

3%

2%

1%

0%

3%

4%

25%

62%

2007

4%

3%

1%

1%

1%

2%

27%

61%

All

5%

5%

3%

2%

4%

5%

24%

52%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

5%

26%

54%

Alt-A

Subprime

Al Non-agy

Originally AAA-rated securities are grouped by the lowest current rating by Moody's, S&P, and Fitch.

Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236

New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360

Source: J.P. Morgan, Moody's, S&P, Fitch

(800) 257-7013

5 ŠCopyright 2012 Cumberland AdvisorsŽ. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.

About Cumberland Advisors Cumberland Advisors supervises over one billion dollars in separate account assets for individuals, institutions, retirement plans, government entities, and cash management portfolios. Cumberland manages portfolios for clients in 48 states, the District of Columbia, and in countries outside the United States. Cumberland Advisors is an SEC-registered investment adviser.

Munis, Taxables, ETFs Cumberland’s portfolio management efforts emphasize long-lasting relationships and continuous dialogue among clients, their consultants, tax advisors, accountants, estate planners, and their assigned portfolio management contact at Cumberland. Cumberland offers several different investment portfolio management styles. Our investment strategy is described in detail on our website.

Fixed Income All of our fixed-income offerings are total return strategies, but can take the client’s current income needs into consideration. Our fixed income styles are Tax-Free Municipal Bonds and Taxable Bonds.

Stocks Cumberland uses Exchange-Traded Funds to manage global equities. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are securities that mimic the price performance and dividend yield of an index, or a basket, of securities. Cumberland uses ETFs as building blocks in crafting a portfolio, investing in attractive equity sectors, industries, market capitalization strata, styles, and regions. Our equity portfolios are U.S. ExchangeTraded Funds (ETF) Equity, International Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) Equity, Emerging Markets Exchange-Traded Funds, and Global Multi-Asset Class Exchange-Traded Funds.

Balanced Accounts Cumberland can blend the strategies presented above to create a balanced mix of stocks and bonds.

For further information about Cumberland Advisors, please visit our website at www.cumber.com.

Florida Office One Sarasota Tower 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Sarasota, FL 34236

New Jersey Office 614 E. Landis Avenue Vineland, NJ 08360

(800) 257-7013

6 ©Copyright 2012 Cumberland Advisors®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.