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China in 2014: Growth, deleveraging and reform John Calverley May 2014


China’s slowdown – A policy balancing act

1. Slow the excessive growth of credit 2. Reduce the investment ratio 3. Implement wide-ranging, potentially disruptive reforms against vested interests 4. Meanwhile – maintain reasonable economic growth. Jobs are key 5. Above all – avoid the “middle income trap”

2


Services are doing better than manufacturing Official PMIs 65

60 Non-manufacturing

55 Manufacturing 50

Neutral

45

40

35 Jan/08

Jan/09

Jan/10

Jan/11

Jan/12

Jan/13

Jan/14

Sources: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research


Producer confidence has fallen recently

25

1.12

Producer confidence

1.10

20

1.08

15

1.06

10

1.04

5

1.02

0

1.00 0.98

-5

0.96

Inventory cycle outlook -10

0.94

-15

0.92

-20

0.90 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research

4


The industrial proxies are weak

30% Electricity

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Railway freight -10% 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research

5


Housing market is weakening Residential FAI, residential floor space under construction, newly started, sold, y/y %, 3mma 100%

Residential floor space sold

80%

Residential floor space, new starts

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40% 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research

6


Housing inventory has risen again Standard Chartered estimates, months of sales

45 40 35 30 Tier 2

25 20 15 10

Tier 3 Tier 1

5 0 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Soufun, Standard Chartered Research

7


Investment growth is slowing, except infrastructure investment FAI growth by industry, y/y %, 3mma 60% 50%

Manufacturing FAI

Real estate FAI

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Infrastructure FAI -10% -20% 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research


Income and spending is holding up Urban disposable income and consumption y/y % 18% 16% 14% 12% Disposable income

10% 8% 6% Consumption expenditure

4% 2% 0% 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research

9


The labour market is still solid

112

Labour demand to supply ratio

108

104 Neutral level

100

96

92

88

84 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research

10


The deleveraging challenge Nominal GDP and our measure of total credit, % y/y

40% Standard Chartered estimate of total credit (on/offshore), % y/y

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%

Nominal GDP, % y/y

5% 0% 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Standard Chartered Research

11


The PBoC’s tightening agenda hits‌and then fades a bit Yields, % 8 3m collateral repo 7 6 5 4

WMP

3 3m deposit rate, %

2 1 0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Standard Chartered Research 12


China’s leverage has risen sharply Global debt-to-GDP ratios 62%

Indonesia Philippines India Taiwan Thailand Malaysia Germany Australia China Korea France Italy United States Spain Singapore United Kingdom Hong Kong SAR Japan

81% 145% 150% 167% 179% 198% 211% 208%

Jun-13

Jun-08

Jun-06

237% 253% 258% 260% 265% 266% 278% 293% 409% 0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

Source: BIS, IMF, Standard Chartered Research

13


China’s debt is mostly in the corporate sector ‌ Debt-GDP ratios by sector, June 2013

Indonesia Philippines India Taiwan Thailand Malaysia Germany Australia China Korea France Italy United States Spain Singapore United Kingdom Hong Kong SAR Japan

Households

Corporate

Government

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

Source: BIS, IMF, Standard Chartered Research

14


Leverage and credit growth across Asia Colours indicate leverage and potential stress: red = high, yellow = moderate/sustainable, green = low June 2013

AU Total credit/GDP

Economy

Non-financial sector

IN

211% ↑ 208% ↑↑ 293% ↑↑ 145% ↓

ID 62% ↓

JP

KR

MY

PH

409% ↑ 237% ↑ 179% ↑

SG

TW

TH

81% ↓ 266% ↑↑ 150% ↓ 167% ↓

137

881

601

127

-50

32

275

638

-40

409

200

487

(Credit growth - µ)/10-yr σ

-1.0 ↓

-0.3 ↑

0.7 ↑↑

-0.8 ↓

0.9 ↓

2.0 ↑↑

-1.1 ↓

-0.7 ↓

-0.2 ↓

0.9 ↑

-0.6 ↓

1.2 ↓

Total borrowings/GDP

182% ↓ 159% ↑↑ 259% ↑↑ 78% ↓

37% ↓

Credit-GDP growth gap (bps)

227 ↑↑ 1,315 ↑↑ 874 ↑↑

1,168 ↓

Credit growth less LT average (ppt)

433 ↓

167% ↓ 202% ↑ 122% ↑ -5 ↓

333 ↑↑

515 ↑↑

40% ↓ 128% ↑↑ 109% ↓ 123% ↓ 111 ↓

1,026 ↑↑ -137 ↓

375 ↓

-275% ↑ 595% ↑ 485% ↑↑ -620% ↓ 750% ↓ 153% ↑ -262% ↓ 120% ↓ 197% ↓ 768% ↑ -369% ↑ 477% ↓ 13% ↓

6% ↓

72% ↓ 125% ↑↑ 142% ↑↑ 59% ↓

17%

Business borrowings/GDP

17% ↑↑ 26% ↑↑

24% ↓

15% ↑

4%

15% ↑

10%

16% ↓

19% ↓

102% ↓ 115% ↓

38% ↓

33% ↓

75% ↑

61% ↓

54% ↓

15%

Debt/Equity

85% ↑↑

39% ↓

83% ↑↑

61% ↓

48% ↓

58% ↓

58% ↑↑

76% ↓

Debt/EBIT

6.9x ↑

6.7x ↓

4.5x ↓

2.9x ↓

5.6x ↓

4.6x ↓

6.9x ↑↑

4.8x ↓

Interest-burden ratio

41% ↑↑

14% ↑

62% ↓

31% ↑↑

29% ↓

19% ↓

13% ↑↑

24% ↓

DSR

92% ↑↑ 74% ↑↑

83% ↓

47% ↑↑

72% ↓

57% ↑↑

76% ↑↑

61% ↓

109% ↑

33% ↑

62% ↑

19% ↑

18% ↑

65% ↓

87% ↑

84% ↑↑

6% ↓

77% ↑

48% ↓

69% ↑

157%

33% ↑

85% ↓

34% ↓

26% ↓

111%

134% ↓ 184% ↑↑

13%

147% ↓

62%

95% ↓

Interest-burden ratio

9%

2% ↓

2% ↓

4% ↓

3% ↓

3%

8% ↓

11% ↑

2%

6% ↓

1%

7% ↓

DSR

17%

3% ↑

8% ↓

5% ↓

4% ↓

10%

15% ↓

21% ↑↑

2%

14% ↓

6%

12% ↓

29% ↓

50% ↓

34% ↓

67% ↓

25% ↓

242% ↑

35% ↓

57%7 ↓

42% ↓

114% ↑

41% ↓

44% ↓

Int. payments/Govt. revenue

2%

2%

1%

6%

4%

6%

4%

1%

10%

2%

2%

4%

DSR

7%

5%

18%

7%

193%

22%

3%

4%

17%

11%

Household borrowings/GDP Borrowing/Household income Household

Government debt/GDP Government4

HK

Credit-GDP gap (bps) 5 yrs

DSR

Corporate

CN

Arrows indicate change from June 2012: ↑ moderate increase

↑↑ fast increase

↓ decrease

Source: Bloomberg, BIS, IMF, Standard Chartered Research estimates

15


How to deleverage

 Slow credit growth  Bankruptcies and write-offs of bad debt  May require some bank recapitalisation later  Supply-side reforms to boost efficiency:  Opening up the services sector to private-sector investment  Force SOEs to sell non-strategic assets  Financial reform – deposit rates and FX  Land reform  Inflation?  Keep growth going!

16


SOE reform will come, but slowly, and in dribs and drab Return on assets, %

12%

The SOEs contribute little to social spending 2013 budget, CNY bn Non-SOEs

700 600

10%

500 8%

400 6%

SOEs 300

4%

200

2%

100

0% 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: CEIC, Standard Chartered Research

0 Social spending

SOE dividends

SOE dividends used for social spending

Source: MoF, Standard Chartered Research

17


China still has plenty of investing to do Capital stock per capita, USD at constant 2005 prices 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2010

2010

China

China at PPP

1930

2009 US

Sources: Dragonomics, Standard Chartered Research


Household income and consumption are under-estimated Three estimates of household income, % of GDP NBS survey, flow of funds, Wang Xiaolu estimates

Two estimates of household consumption, % of GDP 55%

80%

Household consumption, % of GDP (ZZ) 70%

Household income (WXL)

60%

50%

45%

Household income (FoF)

50%

40%

Household income (NBS survey)

40%

30% 2005

2008

2011

Household consumption, % of GDP (NBS) 35%

30% 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Source: CEIC, Wang Xiaolu, Standard Chartered Research


What can go wrong?

 A financial crisis like Thailand 1997? Unlikely because:  Borrowers and lenders are mostly state-owned – fiscal issue, not domino risk  Massive FX reserves  Investment slows too much (Russia 1970s, Japan 1990)  Reforms could dampen some investment opportunities before new ones open up  Our view is that the overcapacity problem is less serious than many believe

20


Growth will shift down as per capita income rises China forecasts to 2015 12

Hong Kong, China

Japan

Chinese Taipei

15,000

20,000

Singapore

Korea

China

Annual average growth (%)

10

8

6

4

2

0 0

5,000

10,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

GDP per capita (current USD PPP) ) Source: Standard Chartered Research


Introducing two-way volatility into the CNY USD-CNY onshore spot more volatile 2.5%

6.40

HIGH

LOW

2.0%

6.35

1.5%

6.30

Top Band

1.0% Upper Band

6.25

Day High Day Low Fix

6.20 6.15

0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0%

Low Band

-1.5%

6.10

-2.0%

6.05 6.00 Jan-13

Lower Band Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

-2.5% Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Forecasts

Q2-14

Q3-14

Q4-14

Q1-15

Q2-15

USD-CNY

6.16

6.13

6.04

5.95

5.90

USD-CNH

6.16

6.13

6.03

5.94

5.89

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research

22


Our forecasts for 2014-15

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014F

2015F

GDP growth, %

10.4

9.2

7.7

7.7

7.4

7.0

CPI, %

3.3

5.4

2.6

2.6

2.4

3.0

1-yr base saving rate, %

2.75

3.50

3.00

3.00

3.00

3.00

Current account, % of GDP

4.0

1.9

2.3

2.1

3.6

3.9

USD-CNY (year end)

6.623

6.301

6.28

6.05

6.04

5.85

FX reserves, USD bn (increase)

2,847 (448)

3,181 (334)

3,350 (169)

3,820 (300)

4,400 (300)

4,500 (100)

Source: Standard Chartered Research

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25


Calverly