Trade and the Financial Markets

Trade and the Financial Markets Global Interdependence Center’s Annual Monetary & Trade Conference

Bill Stone, CFA, CMT Chief Investment Officer May 6, 2019

Agenda Trade and the Financial Markets

Proprietary & confidential

Toxic Trade Stew for the Financial Markets in 4Q

2

I.

Global Economic Slowdown

3

II. III. IV. V. VI.

Fear of U.S. Recession Federal Reserve Policy Trade Conflicts China Financial Market Rebound

4 5 7 12 13

Trade and the Financial Markets Global Economic Slowdown

Source: Bloomberg, Avalon Investment & Advisory

3

Trade and the Financial Markets Fear of U.S. Recession

Source: Bloomberg, Avalon Investment & Advisory

4

Trade and the Financial Markets Federal Reserve Policy

Source: Bloomberg, Avalon Investment & Advisory

5

Trade and the Financial Markets Federal Reserve Policy

Source: Bloomberg, Avalon Investment & Advisory

6

Trade and the Financial Markets Trade Conflicts

Source: Bloomberg, Avalon Investment & Advisory

7

Trade and the Financial Markets Trade Conflicts

Source: Empirical Research Partners, Avalon Investment & Advisory

8

Trade and the Financial Markets Trade Conflicts

Source: Empirical Research Partners, Avalon Investment & Advisory

9

Trade and the Financial Markets Trade Conflicts

Source: Empirical Research Partners, Avalon Investment & Advisory

10

Trade and the Financial Markets Trade Conflicts

11

Trade and the Financial Markets China

Source: Bloomberg, Avalon Investment & Advisory

12

Trade and the Financial Markets Financial Market Rebound

Source: Bloomberg, Avalon Investment & Advisory

13

Trade and the Financial Markets Financial Market Rebound

Source: Empirical Research Partners, Avalon Investment & Advisory

14

Trade and the Financial Markets Financial Market Rebound

Source: Bloomberg, Avalon Investment & Advisory

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