Defence Technology Reports – ‘Advances in Naval Vessel Design and Consultancy Services’ by Global Business Media

SPECIAL REPORT

Advances in Naval Vessel Design and Consultancy Services MTG Marinetechnik Ship Design Procedure VORGES â&#x20AC;&#x201C; A Procedural Model for Total Ship System Engineering The Importance of 21st Century Sea Power Shipping Technology for the 21st Century Global Market Trends Designing the Future of Naval Capability

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Published by Global Business Media

REQUIREMENTS MANAGEMENT

EVALUATION

INDEPENDENT INNOVATIVE EXPERIENCED

SHIP DESIGN

MTG MARINETECHNIK IS SPECIALIZED IN

SIMULATION COST ESTIMATION

MTG MARINETECHNIK is a German naval design center having five decades of experience in the planning and conception of naval vessels.

MTG has the experts, the experience and the capacity to advise their customers independently about the feasibility, realization and financial efforts needed for the procurement and design of navy ships.

www.mtg-marinetechnik.de 路 E-Mail: mtg@mtg-marinetechnik.de Tel.: +49 (0)40 / 658 03 - 0

MTG meets the specific needs of their customers and tailors its services, looking into individual aspects of a project and conducting a comprehensive system design.

SPECIAL REPORT

Advances in Naval Vessel Design and Consultancy Services MTG Marinetechnik Ship Design Procedure VORGES – A Procedural Model for Total Ship System Engineering

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

Contents

The Importance of 21st Century Sea Power Shipping Technology for the 21st Century Global Market Trends Designing the Future of Naval Capability

Foreword 2 Mary Dub, Editor

Defence Technology Reports 109 – ‘Advances in 3 Naval Vessel Design and Consultancy Services’ – MTG Marinetechnik GmbH MTG Marinetechnik Sponsored by

Published by Global Business Media

Published by Global Business Media Global Business Media Limited 62 The Street Ashtead Surrey KT21 1AT United Kingdom Switchboard: +44 (0)1737 850 939 Fax: +44 (0)1737 851 952 Email: info@globalbusinessmedia.org Website: www.globalbusinessmedia.org Publisher Kevin Bell Business Development Director Marie-Anne Brooks Editor Mary Dub Senior Project Manager Steve Banks Advertising Executives Michael McCarthy Abigail Coombes Production Manager Paul Davies

Design Process Conceptual Design Preliminary Design

The Importance of 21st Century Sea Power

Mary Dub, International Security Writer

The United Kingdom’s Assessment of its Role as a Naval Sea Power Possible Future Uncertainties State on State Conflict

Shipping Technology for the 21st Century

Don McBarnet, Defence Technology Writer

World Shipbuilding Production The Price of Success and Efficiency The Critical Support of Governments to Support Finance The Consequences of the Need to Build Naval Vessels Onshore

Global Market Trends

Don McBarnet, Defence Technology Writer

The Future Powerhouse of the Asian Economies in 2030 The Growth of China’s Blue Water Navy and Rising Regional Tensions

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The Role of China’s PLAN in Regional Disputes

The opinions and views expressed in the editorial content in this publication are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent the views of any organisation with which they may be associated.

Designing the Future of Naval Capability

Material in advertisements and promotional features may be considered to represent the views of the advertisers and promoters. The views and opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily express the views of the Publishers or the Editor. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this publication, neither the Publishers nor the Editor are responsible for such opinions and views or for any inaccuracies in the articles.

New Challenges from Electromagnetic Spectrum and Cyber Warfare

The Emergence of India and Indonesia

Mary Dub, International Security Writer

The Recognition that Technology Must be Updated Constantly The Historic and Longstanding Importance of Sea Power and American Sea Power Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Sea Power The Future Market for Naval Design and Consultancy

References 19

© 2015. The entire contents of this publication are protected by copyright. Full details are available from the Publishers. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner.

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SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

Foreword C

OMMAND OF the sea and the projection

rising costs and a diminishing budget for new naval

of power at sea remains an integral part

platforms, but has a sustained demand to meet

of the security of a nation state. But how is

naval and expeditionary expectations. The Prime

this to be achieved? The composition and

Minister, David Cameron, has faced the reality that

construction of a vessel and indeed a fleet is

shipbuilding costs are rising unacceptably and there

a highly contentious area.

is a need to control these costs. The Asian shipyards

The opening article in this Special Report looks

that are competing successfully in the world market

at a system developed by MTG Marinetechnik as

are assessed. Drawing on a recent Lloyds report and

a method, tool and procedure for the design of

other market research, this article summarizes some

naval warships that compares budgets with naval

of the optimistic forecasts on growth in shipbuilding

requirements, enabling the formulation of technical

and demand for ships.

specifications for the tender and building process. It

The future of shipbuilding looks promising particularly

sets out the various phases of the design process

for those who can match the global demand to

from conception to the creation of preliminary

meet engineering criteria of the highest level to

design, including the evaluation of military performance

deliver the latest technology. However, uncertainty is

and effectiveness.

a constant in warfare and the rapid growth of robotics

In the second piece the importance of 21st century

and unmanned systems may well make the need to

sea power is reviewed in a century where highly

modify legacy systems and develop new ones an

populated metropolitan areas are increasingly

exciting challenge.

stretched across littoral areas and coastal and international trade is growing rapidly. The third article looks briefly at how one maritime nation, the United Kingdom, is currently faced with

Mary Dub Editor

Mary Dub has written about international security in the United States, Europe, Africa and the Middle East as a television broadcaster and journalist and has a Masters degree in War Studies from Kingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s College, London.

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SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

MTG Marinetechnik Ship Design Procedure VORGES – A Procedural Model for Total Ship System Engineering MTG Marinetechnik

HE CHANGING geopolitical but also economic conditions entailed a major impact on the planning process of naval vessels. Planning and construction of navy ships was in the past mainly dominated by a few nations, for both national demand and for export. The steady growth and increasing self-awareness of emerging countries lead to a nationalization of both the planning and construction process. While this trend is reinforced by the increasing demand for naval vessels, it also implements the request to increase the expertise in the local market as well as to consider national tactical and operational characteristics in the planning of future navy ships to a maximum extent. In most cases the available defence budget for a certain typically top prioritized and high budgeted project is not sufficient to find the specific design meeting all naval requirements. Therefore, it is of the utmost importance to spend the allocated budget as efficiently as possible. In the late 80s, VORGES was developed by MTG Marinetechnik as a methodology and procedure to specify a reference design for naval warships that balances the budget and naval requirements, enabling the procuring authority to formulate the technical specifications for the tender and building process. It has since become the standard procedure to support the planning process of the German Navy for all types of surface vessels and has been adapted by many other navies around the globe. VORGES has since then constantly been updated and modified to meet the individual customer requirements. Using the VORGES procedure, the procuring authority is enabled to determine the required budget as well as to procure the optimum naval vessel for their fleet. It is a one-

stop service finding affordable solutions by: Consolidating user requirements into feasible solutions, n Creating meaningful sets of requirements, n Developing a variety of possible ship designs, n Estimating procurement and life cycle costs, n Calculating the measures of effectiveness by simulation, n Assessing the results in relation to the requirements. Additionally, VORGES is being used to answer “what-if” questions and their effects on the budget. This means that VORGES is able to investigate different technical solutions and their budgetary effects without the necessity of generating a complete design. The VORGES methodology can be briefly described as an iterative process of standardized phases requiring expert knowledge, up-to-date databases, state-of-the-art CAE/CAD tools and a broad cooperation within the network, with, most importantly, the active participation of the end-user. As a basic framework, the planning process can be separated into two major steps (see Figure 1). The first step is the creation of several conceptual designs in a short time frame, with a view to generating a broad choice of different vessel designs and providing sufficient information for an initial selection of one or more promising designs that meet the functional and budget requirements. After the initial selection, one or more preliminary designs will be created at in greater detail enabling the procuring authority to determine the required technical specifications. Both steps are subdivided into further phases that can be described as a circular and progressive sequence of activities. By carrying out this sequence, a n

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SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

In the late 80s, VORGES Step 1:

was developed by

Customer Requirements

Generation of conceptual designs

MTG Marinetechnik

Selection by the customer

Step 2:

Validation of results by generation of preliminary designs

Customer confirms selection

Requirements Management

as a methodology and Ship Design

procedure to specify

Assessment

• Conceptual Design • Preliminary Design

a reference design for Effectiveness Evaluation

naval warships that balances the budget and naval requirements, enabling the procuring authority to formulate the technical specifications for the tender and building process

Cost Estimation

FIG. 1: VORGES PROCESS

potential design can be found using the results of each step, to improve the accuracy of user requirements and use the modified requirements as an input for the next step. The VORGES process shortens the planning process by gradually increasing the detailed level of the ship design and reducing the technical and financial risk of the project through constantly monitoring the costs, the requirements fulfilment and the effectiveness of each solution.

Design Process To close the identified gap of military performance and/or capability with respect to the operation of naval vessels, the procuring authority basically has three options: n Design and procure a new vessel (that also includes the modification of existing designs) n Procure an existing design n Modify/upgrade/downgrade an existing vessel Each process requires the thorough analysis as to what extent the gap can be closed within the available budget or how the gap can be closed at the with the optimum cost benefit if there is no existing budget restriction. For this purpose and independent of the acquisition strategy, the generation of a design is essential to enable the procuring authority to make a meaningful decision.

Conceptual Design The conceptual design stage of the VORGES process is subdivided into eight phases. Normally, these phases are not processed sequentially. Dependent on the required design, it is also possible to carry out several phases in parallel and to repeat previously finished phases if the results of preceding phases dictate. 4 | WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM

Phase 1: Analysis of user requirements The VORGES process starts with an analysis of the customer requirements. Usually, at an early stage of the procurement planning, the procuring authority or the Naval Project Team has a set of specific formal requirements. These requirements usually focus on procurement costs, engineering standards, documentary standards and operational requirements for the total system. Experience shows that most customers also have a significant number of non-specified expectations for their future naval vessel. Therefore, an extensive dialog between the design team and the procuring authority is essential in order to prepare the initial set of requirements. The analysis process focusses on establishing the technical feasibility as well as determining the importance of different requirements, since, quite often, different priorities exist. On the basis of established requirements, the so called hierarchy for benchmarking and prioritization can be defined using the tool “Expert-Choice” which was designed for complex decision making. With this hierarchy, the conceptual designs that will be carried out at a later stage can be evaluated. Simply using this stage for pure analysis is misleading. Over the course of the planning process, several circumstances or parameters such as budget adjustments, change of political preferences and insights gained from other designs, will influence the overall process. The more advanced and detailed a vessel design becomes, the better the inherent technical and operational complexities can be evaluated. This often leads to the discovery of conflicts or contradictions between requirements. On occasion, this can require the update and change of the initial requirements that may

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

involve a major influence on the continuing planning process. VORGES handles these situations through a continuous requirement management process which takes care of: n The analysis of the customer requirements, n Supporting and consulting the customer/ change and quality management, n Dealing with / prioritizing conflicting requirements, n Processing results from iterative conceptual designs into the requirements for future designs, n Reducing complexity by structuring the requirements, n Consolidating requirements into usable sets for vessel designs. On the basis of the initial established set of requirements, the initial planning process can be continued. Phase 2: Formulation of initial solutions and design ideas This phase, which is based on the defined requirements, is a first step to identify initial ideas and solutions that meet a maximum of requirements. At this stage, ideas which document the various focal points that must be considered when implementing the requirements into technical solutions will be coordinated and documented. Due to limited budgets, it is usually not possible to implement all requirements into one technical solution. However, in most cases it will also be very helpful for the procuring authority to gain an indication of the level of budget overrun. The initial solution gained describes a logical, meaningful and self-contained part of the defined customer requirements and can be pictured as a filter through which the requirements are poured. Some requirements pass through completely, some partly and others are withheld. The requirements that are identified using this methodology are called “Basic Requirements”. These basic requirements will now be implemented into technical solutions that form the basis for the various possible design ideas which include first details on the implementation of the individual requirements. They outline, for example, the required number and types of ships and describe initial technical solutions. On this basis, the technical design process can be started. Phase 3: Development, generation and adaption of building blocks and operational concepts The technical implementation of different design ideas as referred to above is mainly done by finding the combination of building blocks meeting the basic requirements. Having different

or competing building blocks will lead to further solutions and broaden the set of alterations and solutions, hence significantly increasing the overall processing complexity. As a general rule, a building block is built up from objects which provide technical, functional and cost data. The technical data are derived from components containing information such as weight, volume, dimension and electrical data. So-called “Payloads” will generally provide information with respect to costs and additional requirements for operation. Function objects hold standardized functions as attributes for surface ships, e.g. air defence. The basis for use of the MTG planning process is the identification of the basic characteristics of the mission system as well as of the platform that is being specified in detail in building blocks. To be able to generate a high amount of conceptual designs in a short period of time, it is essential to have all building blocks available, up-to-date and adjusted to the project. This implies the dependency to have a close cooperation not only with the naval industry but also to actively participate in the network of naval design organizations. The overall aim of this phase is to: n Designate building blocks for the mission system, n Designate building blocks for the platform and the ship equipment n Estimate the costs involved. Based on the required capabilities (e.g. ASW, ASuW, etc.) a list of basic technical requirements is generated. Based on this list, the relevant building blocks can be designated to generate the initial concept for the mission system. During this stage, the designer is responsible to pick the optimized set of building blocks from an overall catalogue of building blocks. In case of conflicting solutions, it may be possible to consider several competing designs reflecting different combinations of building blocks that meet the basic requirements. The selection and combination of the preferred building blocks have to be done in close cooperation with the responsible experts for the platform design, ship equipment design and electrical design in order to get an overall co-ordinated system. The result of the building blocks selection will be documented in the mission system sketch containing a basic diagram of the arrangement of the mission components. Building blocks for the ship equipment can be designated on the basis of a combination of the information of the layout of the mission system and preconfigured standard platform concepts. Information identified and designated during this step are: WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 5

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

The basis for use of the MTG planning process is the identification of the basic characteristics of the mission system as well as of the platform that is being specified in detail in building blocks

FIG. 2: MTG DATABASE LINK

ype and class of vessel, ship equipment T and technology, n Hull form characteristics, n Mobility, endurance, complement, required reserves. The third step during this phase is the designation of the required manning for the overall system. Inputs will be taken from figures for preconfigured concepts for different warfare areas as well as from information with respect to: n Approximate displacement n Endurance n Maximum speed n Approximate length of the vessel n Grade of automation (fixed factors) n Maintenance concept n Modular mission systems n Planned detachments n Watch cycles and routines n CIC configuration. Based on the above inputs, the initial manning concept for planning can be formulated. However, this needs to be constantly adjusted during the on-going design process as more precise information becomes available. n

Phase 4: Conceptual design With the first concepts of the particular mission system formulated, platform layout, designated building blocks for ship equipment and resulting complement, the conceptual design phase can be started so as to generate a a variety of naval vessel designs incorporating the results of phase 3 in a short time frame. The design process will be supported by the following software tools developed by MTG: n Ship Design Program (SVEP) n Object Oriented Data Base System Furthermore, major commercial design tools like CAD-Systems for 2D/3D designs, hull design and hydrostatic software, CFD program for power 6 | WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM

prediction as well as office tools for calculation and documentation are also used, especially at a later stage during the Preliminary Design Phase. The objective of the calculation and iteration in the conceptual phase is to create balanced ship designs with reference to parent hull forms, modelled on volume and mass calculations. The program uses a design algorithm with specific determinants for naval vessels, naval auxiliaries, and commercial vessels based on statistical analyses of existing vessels. On the basis of the stated requirements, the ship designer starts looking for the corresponding building blocks by screening the linked functions. Later, the main platform objectives, such as number of ships in class, ship type, endurance, speed, etc. will be set. The preparation of a rough drawing is necessary in order to estimate the main dimensions and to arrange the components which have a strong effect on them. Some information from the first sketch is also important for estimating the B/T-ratio (beam/draught) and the coefficient of fineness. The rough drawing is not only for pre-estimating input data, but it is also used to evaluate the result of the Ship Design Program. SVEP obtains the technical data and the payload data from the database system (please refer to Figure 2). By computation, SVEP generates essential information such as: n Main dimensions, n Displacement, n Form coefficients, n Volume allocation, n Stability values, n Propulsive power curve, n Weights and centres of gravity, n Machinery installations, n Electrical installations, n Weapons installations, n Communication and sensors,

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

FIG. 3: CONCEPTUAL DESIGN

Hull and superstructure, Technical equipment. At the same time as the drawings are prepared, the results are validated. Review of weight and centre of gravity by means of a more detailed weight estimation is most important. The weight results of SVEP are rechecked here on the basis of built naval vessels or by using different well established calculation methods to estimate the weight of each component. For a first stability analysis, an adapted hull form from a hull library is used. At this stage in the design, it is sufficient to prepare a rough lines plan which is scaled in order to obtain the hull-coefficients and main dimensions. Similar methods are used to validate the propulsive power and electrical power.

n n

Phase 5: Documentation of conceptual design After running the computation, the next step is the preparation of a drawing, composed of a side view, a top view and an above water side view. From the results, the main dimensions and also values such as frame spacing, number of sections, position of bulkheads and outline of hull and superstructure will be determined. This is followed by arranging the main components that have a strong effect on the design, (i.e. essentially horizontal and vertical main passageways, stairwells, propulsion plant, exhaust pipes, switch boards and, if required, helicopter facilities, cargo holds, RAS equipment, stern ramps and recesses for RHIBs. The main components of the required combat system, e.g. weapons, sensors and communication systems will also be arranged. The technical part of the Conceptual Design results in a 2D sketch accompanied by the following information: n Main dimensions, n Propulsion concept, n Electric concept, n Payload components (including mission concept).

An increase in the accuracy of technical solutions can be achieved by developing Preliminary Designs at a later stage in the process. Phase 6: Determination of technical performance, costs and risks It is important to start the determination of the technical performance and the first cost estimation at this early stage in order to decide whether to proceed or to iterate in order to generate further designs. Determination of the technical performance is carried out by a simple comparison of obtained data with requirements set out in the initial stage of the design process. Based on the design regulations (design to budget, design to requirements) it is also essential to start the cost estimation at this stage in order to get a qualified statement of the most probable costs. A constant cost evaluation during the project is essential in order to: n Defining the budget funds, n Validate different alternatives, n Evaluate tenders and select economic reasonable solutions, n Identify cost savings or potential for economies, n Reduce risk. The cost estimation process is subdivided into seven steps: n Set up project, n Define work breakdown structure (WBS), n Choose estimation model, n Generate cost estimate, n Review and validate estimate, n Perform cost risk analysis, n Document estimate. The cost estimation project is initiated by collecting technical, programing and cost data. Additionally, it is necessary to adjust the data to account for inflation, learning and quantity. Furthermore, the acquisition strategy (competition, consortium) WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 7

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

The preparation of a rough drawing is necessary in order to estimate the main dimensions and to arrange the components which have a strong effect on them

has to be gathered. Typical sources of data are: cost proposals of vendors, historical databases, governmental agencies (the customer), experts and open source (Internet, naval reference books). Additionally, basic assumptions (e.g. inflation, wages, overheads) are identified in this step. The next step is the definition of the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements that will be derived from the conceptual design as previously specified. A WBS, therefore, is a breakdown of the ship into smaller components or rather functional technical groups such as hull structure, propulsion plant, electric plant, etc. The selection of the estimation model depends on the current phase of the project. For cost estimating purposes, every future naval vessel is divided into platform and payloads. Two models are used in VORGES, one for the very early conceptual design phase (SCEM – Ship Cost Estimation Method) and one for the preliminary design phase (GELIMAKO – GEräteLIste MArineKOsten (Cost register of naval equipment)). Both models are property of MTG Marinetechnik as no COTS software is available for this kind of estimation task. Both SCEM and GELIMAKO apply a combination of the above mentioned methods. The main method of SCEM is parametric top-down estimation with Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs). The data points which were collected in the course of time are connected via polynomial or cubic spline interpolation. Parametric estimation is used for platform cost elements such as hull, propulsion and electric plant. Accordingly, independent variables like hull volume, installed propulsion, number and kind of propellers or power of electric plant are used. It’s not easy to generate CERs for payloads, so expert opinions and analogies are used. Engineering costs for design and construction, management, proofs, test and trials, along with others are estimated via empirically found formulas. Typical parameters in these formulas are number of building yards involved, number of ships, installation costs of payloads etc. SCEM is usually used for rough estimates and “what if”-questions. After input of all necessary data, the model generates the cost estimate at the push of a button. This always takes place together with a review and validation of the estimate. Reviewing involves a cross-check of the overall estimate against historical projects to see if the results are plausible. If the results seem unrealistic, this leads to a revision of all input data and to one or more re-runs of the estimation. After the cost estimation, a cost risk analysis (CRA) is performed to consider and evaluate the uncertainties in the model and the input data. As a result of the CRA, confidence as to

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what extent the budget will be met, or will overor under- run will be determined. This essential information for the Project Management is rendered by a comprehensive approach to analyse available or new technical details and solutions as well as other factors related to political and economic issues. Phase 7: Determination of military performance As soon as the technical evaluation and cost estimation is finished, the various conceptual designs will be evaluated for their military performance using a Maritime Scenario Simulation Tool (MaSST). MaSST is a highly customisable simulation framework for tactical scenarios. It is based on a COTS professional simulation environment which was originally designed for tactical land scenarios. For VORGES, the MaSST software environment was significantly enhanced with several proprietary add-ons for tactical maritime scenarios. The base software, combined with the add-ons for maritime operations, results in a simulation environment with blue-water and superior brown-water scenario capability. The add-ons include, among others: n Radar sensor simulation module, n IR sensor simulation module, n Gunfire simulation module, n Missile simulation module, n Surface ship kinematics module, n Vessel generator module. To collect and analyse the data generated by MaSST simulations, various data logging modules have been developed and integrated into the simulation environment. As an original design, MaSST is not a ready-made or turnkey tool, but instead a modular system, continuously growing and enhanced for new specific tasks. If required, MaSST can simulate all tactical maritime environments of a particular vessel design. In principle, all kinds of maritime operations can be created and represented, ranging from harbour protection scenarios – which do not require a large operations theatre but a very high level of detail instead – to complex sea/land or air/sea/subsurface multi-threat scenarios, including large-scale sea surveillance scenarios in which the operations theatre can easily measure thousands of square nautical miles. However, future development of MaSST will be focussed on the creation of a range of predefined simulated tactical scenarios, e.g. for sea surveillance. Today, the tool is already used to: n Create and evaluate operational concepts, n Determine key parameters for future naval procurement programs, n Compare different concepts for maritime operations,

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

etermine the military capabilities of naval D vessel designs. Testing a naval vessel design in a simulated tactical environment during the early stage of planning and procurement yields several advantages, e.g., design changes are possible at relatively low costs (if compared to changes during later stages of the procurement process). Results from MaSST for a range of predefined and/or customised simulated tactical scenarios may also be included into the requirements for the vessel, enabling the procuring authority to specify design requirements grouped along different scenarios. Thus, complexity is reduced at an early stage of the procurement process. The results from the MaSST simulations can be fed back into the ship design process. This empowers the procurement project manager to balance operational restrictions and cost restrictions more efficiently.

Phase 8: Assessment of conceptual designs Since multiple vessel designs for selection by the procuring authority have been created, the requirement for an unbiased and objective assessment methodology arises. In order to have an equitable and consistent framework to compare different designs with regards to the requirements, an evaluation hierarchy has been established within VORGES applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for use with the COTS software tool, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Expert Choiceâ&#x20AC;?. The basic idea of AHP is paired comparison, which means that both sub-criteria and alternatives to be evaluated are compared and rated by means of a pre-defined scale. In principle, all possible pair combinations are considered and rated individually. This may result in a relatively high number of paired comparisons; for 3 criteria to be compared, 3 paired comparisons need to be made, but for 25 criteria we arrive at 300 paired comparisons. The accomplishing of paired comparisons, results in a matrix which is then transformed into a weighting/benchmark for the constituent criteria/alternatives. As a result, the AHP methodology produces a ranked order of the different conceptual and, at a later stage, preliminary designs, based on the procuring authorityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s requirements which themselves have been weighted. The assessment phase concludes with an evaluation of the degree of requirements fulfilment in the different conceptual designs. It will be evaluated if there is at least one design meeting basic requirements. This will lead to a decision on whether to continue the process and to start the preliminary design or to restart the conceptual design phase.

Preliminary Design From the choice of different conceptual designs, the procuring authority and/or the end-user has to select one or more potential solutions that will be further investigated. During the preliminary design phase, the results from the conceptual phase will be verified and further detailed enabling the design team to extrapolate the requirements catalogue for the on-going procurement process. The preliminary design phase is subdivided into seven phases similar to the conceptual design process. Phase 1: Increase detail level of requirements With the knowledge gained in the conceptual phase, the initial requirements can be reevaluated and reviewed with respect to their feasibility and meaningfulness. During Phase 1 the previously designated meaningful set of requirements will be further specified, detailed and extended by additional technical and functional details. As a result of an intense cooperation between the end-user and the designer, a specified decision matrix of rated functional but also essential technical requirements will be generated, substantially influencing the following design process and hence allowing final assessment of the different designs. Phase 2: Development of operational scenario/increase level of detail for design (platform, sensor and effector suite, ship equipment) The basic operational scenario and environment have already been designated in the initial phase of the planning process. In order to start the evaluation of the military performance of the preliminary design, a detailed operational concept has to be developed. This step mostly requires the input of the procuring authority/ end user and contains information related to the potential threat, mission environment and logistical requirements. Based on the functional requirements specified in Phase 1, a more detailed selection for the platform, the mission systems and the ship equipment can be made. Details for the platform contain the generation of a 3D hull model, 2D outfitting and superstructure, strength calculation, basic weight estimation and the determination of stability. The technical solutions as well as the arrangement of the components will be further specified for the mission system as well as for the propulsion, electric and ship operations system. In some cases, a selection decision can be made at this stage. In other cases, alternative or technical solutions will result in new preliminary designs. WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 9

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

Once the final selection has been made, the technical and functional characteristics can be derived from the preliminary design

FIG. 4: PRELIMINARY DESIGN

Phase 3: Generation of 3D model/manning concept/cost estimation/cost risk analysis risk analysis for payloads/ship equipment In this phase, several steps will be carried out simultaneously. The generation of 3D models as well as the further specifications of the manning concept will directly lead to the preliminary design, whereas the cost estimation as well as the risk analysis might have an effect on the design but will mainly be required at later stages. A special tool developed by MTG is used for the cost estimation at this step, different from the conceptual design phase, as more details exist that influence the cost estimation. The tool GELIMAKO is a bottom-up calculating approach that uses engineering build-up, which is possible with a detailed knowledge of the project and the design. GELIMAKO also incorporates different currencies, individual inflation rates per cost element and price adjustment clauses. Additionally, a cost risk variance analysis to the conceptual design process is carried out enabling the procuring authority to finalize budgets and to take measures to further reduce the financial risk of the project by analysing identified risk drivers (components or systems with a high level of uncertainty). Phase 4: Generation of preliminary design The preliminary design eventually generated at this stage contains a 3D model, general arrangement plan, a detailed equipment list as well as a thorough cost estimation including specification of the expected life cycle costs. Phase 5: Evaluation of military performance/ effectiveness Based on the operational environment as defined in Phase 2, the different designs are analysed for their military performance in a predefined operational scenario using the simulation tool MaSST. Thereafter, detailed information can be given to the effectiveness of the sensor set and the effector set as well as the platform itself. In addition to the military performance, other characteristics need to be analysed. Those characteristics include the analysis of the

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signature (magnetic, acoustic etc.), the analysis of the vulnerability, hydrodynamic characteristics, mission capabilities and sustainability as well as the overall performance of the sensor effector functional chain. For this phase, MTG uses its own self developed software tools as almost no commercially available and only some proprietary software exist for this task. Phase 6: Assessment of different designs/solutions As in the assessment process of the conceptual design phase, the preliminary designs will be evaluated and assessed utilizing the decision matrix generated in Phase 2 in combination with the results of the AHP procedure with the tool â&#x20AC;&#x153;Expert Choiceâ&#x20AC;?. As a result, the procurement authority will obtain a list of the degree of requirements fulfilment as well as a cost benefit ratio comparison of the different designs. With these tools, the procuring authority is put in a position either to make a final selection or to continue the investigation/ design process. Phase 7: Documentation Once the final selection has been made, the technical and functional characteristics can be derived from the preliminary design. From these documents, the Statement of Requirements containing technical specifications for invitations to tender can be prepared in a very short time, which enables the procuring authority both to specify the ship as well as, thereafter, to evaluate the technical and commercial proposals received from the naval industry. Conclusion VORGES is a proven methodology to finalize functional requirements and reduce the technical and financial risk in a naval ship planning program. The technical and financial data generated during the VORGES process will support political decisions towards the project and enable the program managaer to define and take measures to reduce the involved risks.

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

The Importance of 21st Century Sea Power Mary Dub, International Security Writer

“Oceans are the lifeblood of the interconnected global community, where seaborne trade is expected to double over the next 15 years. Our forward naval forces support the free flow of commerce that has enabled unparalleled global economic growth over the last 70 years. Ninety per cent of trade by volume travels across the oceans. Approximately 70 per cent of the world’s population lives within 100 miles of the coastline – an area known as the littoral. Likewise, most maritime activity – commercial shipping, fishing, and oil and gas extraction – takes place within 200 miles of the shore1”. Ray Mabus, United States Secretary of the Navy 2015

EA POWER in the 21st century contains many elements that would be familiar to the naval officer of the 20th or even the 19th century: the sea as a resource, a medium for trade, a medium for informational exchange, and a medium for dominion – and the interdependent nature of these media in what Geoffrey Till terms a ‘virtuous maritime circle.2’ But power at sea is asserted through decisive battle and victory, fleet-in-being, and blockade. Looking at how to exploit power, there are the familiar concepts of amphibious operations, operational maneuvers from the sea, sea-based strategic missile attacks, attacks on maritime communications and trade. But it is Lee Willetts at the British think-tank the Royal United Services Institute who raises the fundamentally difficult question – what are the effective economic and political metrics for measuring the value of navies? This searching question raises issues about the UK’s ability to generate affordable and relevant naval capability, particularly, when set against a backdrop of fiscal restraint and a focus on land operations3. This very fundamental questioning taking place in the UK is a small example of a similar debate taking place across NATO countries including the United States. There is also a parallel debate in the wealthier countries of Asia, China, Indonesia and the Pacific, where they have concluded that the role of the navy is a decisive and strategic part of their defense capability, as this Report will go on to demonstrate.

The United Kingdom’s Assessment of its Role as a Naval Sea Power The role of the navy is to defend the national interest. However, as Lee Willetts argues, the process of defining exactly what this means is an imprecise science. Such interests can be intangible and subject to change, and there is risk of creating hostages to fortune. For the UK, a nation, which relies on the use of the sea to protect its interests and fulfill its global responsibilities, a navy of appropriate size and fitted with adaptable capability, remains essential.4 And it is the essential uncertainties of this definitional process that have fuelled the argument whether the Royal Navy should concentrate on developing a greater number of less capable warships, instead of a restricted number of high-end capital ships, to enable more ships to be deployed in more areas. The debate about the number and capabilities of the FSC (Future Surface Combatant) Type 45 destroyer typifies this process.

Possible Future Uncertainties The British Navy in association with others has had a role in protecting merchant shipping against piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. It is also currently involved in humanitarian assistance with refugees in the Mediterranean and has proved to be remarkably effective at the task. It has played its part in a number of coalitions including US-led Coalition Maritime Force (CMF), the WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 11

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

The Iraqi Al-Basrah and Kwahr Abd Allah oil terminals and the UK’s own Milford Haven LNG terminal, not to mention the sea lines and choke points in between, are all

DETAILED DESIGN – ©MTG MAIRNETECHNIK GmbH

elements of critical national infrastructure that require a naval presence as a key component of their security

regular NATO Standing Naval Maritime Group deployments and, in particular, the European Union Naval Force (EU NAVFOR) Operation Atalanta – by providing staff and command structures. Further, while climate change is a disruptive future force with the rising temperature of seawater in the Arctic, opening up the Arctic seaways, the United Kingdom will have to address the protection of the GreenlandIceland-UK Gap (GIUK). The protection of energy supply lines is also a critical national security issue, with the UK being dependent on the import of LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) by sea. The UK does have gas storage facilities, but a significant part of these facilities are the container ships, which deliver the Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) supplies by sea. The Iraqi Al-Basrah and Kwahr Abd Allah oil terminals and the UK’s own Milford Haven LNG terminal, not to mention the sea lines and choke points in between, are all elements of critical national infrastructure that require a naval presence as a key component of their security.5

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State on State Conflict Although state on state conflict may currently be in abeyance, writing in June 2015, it would be a mistake to underestimate the emerging nationalism of Russia, the perceived threat from China’s increasingly numerous blue water navy and the strategic importance of defending the straits of Hormuz for national energy security. One notable feature of the 21st century naval environment is the common acknowledgement of the importance of working in networks, alliances and partnerships. Restating the point made by Britain’s NATO ally, the United States, in the most recent policy statement by the US Navy: “The reality of today is that we have to think about the global network of navies. All it takes is a willingness to cooperate – there’s no commitment, you don’t have to join an alliance, anyone can plug-and-play. There’s a mission for everybody whether it’s humanitarian assistance and disaster response, counterterrorism, counter transnational organized crime, or counter piracy.”6”

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

Shipping Technology for the 21st Century Don McBarnet, International Security Correspondent

‘A Royal Navy locked into a cycle of ever smaller numbers of ever more expensive ships…. we cannot go on like this.’ British Prime Minister, Rt Hon David Cameron 20107

HE BRITISH Navy is not alone in having to confront the issues of the rising cost of new vessels and the constantly changing decisions on how to equip both the legacy fleet and new ships. In Britain, as in the United States, there has been a long tradition, for the most part, of building our own naval capabilities on shore. However, this process known in India and emerging countries as ‘indigenization’ runs counter to the global trend for commercial and naval orders to be placed with the shipbuilding yards of Asia, rather than the more specialist and historically more highly skilled yards of Europe. A survey of the trend by the India Institute of Technology, at the School of Management Studies in Delhi, highlights the issue; the largest three ship constructors are from Asia – that is South Korea, China and Japan. These countries control 75% of the world shipbuilding market. Japan started in the 1950s and held the position of the largest ship constructor for three decades. South Korea started in the 1970s and in a span of 30 years has overtaken Japan. China entered ship construction in a big way in the 1980s and is today the second largest constructor of ships in the world. At an average, it has taken these countries 30 years to become world leaders in this industry.8

World Shipbuilding Production South Korea is now top of the table at 35.6% by some criteria; Japan follows at 30.58% while China musters 18.39%. Germany, the highest ranked European country, holds a strong 2.36% of global world trade. But, in the vigorous global competition, India, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brazil are edging powerfully up the table. Capt. Rajesh Sinha, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, School of Management Studies, notes

the reasons why this is happening: high European labor costs, the aging population of Europe, the high cost of steel and, critically, the lack of available finance for shipbuilding. Each of these factors is important, but the role of government support and finance in driving the Asian industries should not be underestimated. The report also highlights what it describes as the ‘mega-trend’ – the demand across naval and commercial fleets for fuel efficiency and lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The South Korean yards defend their position as No 1 in the shipbuilding league by offering competitive design skill, skilled labour and technological achievements.9 These qualities, combined with good engines and a world class steel industry were given the added advantage of the depreciation of the Korean Won against the Yen and the Yuan in 2011, thus reestablishing the Korean 20-30% cost advantage over the Japanese and Chinese yards. While these yards predominantly produce merchant vessels, their skills in design and engineering can also be used to produce naval vessels, although these have a much more complex engineering brief.

The Price of Success and Efficiency While Europe looks at the global economic success of the Asian yards, they are also using them for their own needs for commercial shipping. World maritime Shipping News reported that Germany’s Döhle Schiffahrts KG has ordered a minimum of two 64,000 dwt Ultramax bulk carriers from Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Co. Ltd., deliverable in late 2015/ early 2016, with options for two additional vessels. Ohdendorff Carriers, a time-honored ship owner headquartered in Lübeck, Germany, WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 13

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

In the vigorous global competition, India, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brazil are edging powerfully up the table

has placed an order for four new bulkers with the Chinese Jiangsu New Yangzijang shipyard, scheduled for delivery in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Hamburg Süd is said to have three 10,000 TEU containerships on order with the South Korean shipbuilding group Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering. The German shipyard Fassmer is building a new ferry worth EUR30 million for AG Ems. And Meyer Werft is working on a 1,680-cabin cruise liner for Genting-Holding. The vessel will accommodate 3364 passengers and is worth around EUR707.2 million.

The Critical Support of Governments to Support Finance While the Asian yards are not all supported by their own governments, some are, and some argue that financing support would make a critical difference to some German yards. “The financing challenge continues to be a major concern for every other shipyard in assessing their economic risks. In the current environment, the capital need can only be met with great difficulty,” said Hans Thon, Chairman of the IHK Nord and President of the IHK Schwerin, Germany chambers of commerce. So Thon called for a support initiative by the

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German national and state governments to provide loan guarantees and financing backup11.

The Consequences of the Need to Build Naval Vessels Onshore Like many other countries, European and Asian, the United Kingdom has to be aware of the costs of not taking the economically most efficient option. The cost of producing naval platforms in Europe will rise and this leads to hard choices about the numbers and types of vessels that can be built given budget constraints. This point was referred to in a Joint Concept note by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 2012: without a shock event, or a major military challenge, the defence resources available to provide a balanced fleet will, at best, remain constant. When married to the assumption that the rising costs of fighting power ensure that platform costs must go up, meaning overall numbers must go down, this reality makes it impossible to fund a balanced fleet. This is not just a UK problem: ‘prices of US military ships and fixed-wing aircraft are now so high that they are outstripping the ability of the military services to pay them’. If this trend is not checked, how many platforms will the UK be able to afford in 2035?12 This is a question that this Report must leave open.

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

Global Market Trends Don McBarnet, International Security Correspondent

LOBAL MARKET trends in shipbuilding and ship design for the naval and commercial sector are both heavily dependent on population and economic growth predictions to 2030. In a report issued by Lloyd’s Register, the British technology company, Qinetiq and Strathclyde University give a finely balanced and qualified view of their perspective on the future market. Their view is strongly optimistic. “Work leads us to believe that we can expect growth in all three of the sectors we examined – commercial shipping, naval sector and offshore energy. This will mean more demand for shipping, shipbuilding, marine equipment manufacture, and related services – including the knowledge services we provide. This positive view is based on evidence and reasonable scenarios, providing a degree of confidence while acknowledging there are uncertainties.13

The Future Powerhouse of the Asian Economies in 2030 In their view, global GDP could grow three times within 20 years. By 2030, the largest economies, by a long way, would be China, USA and India. The countries with the largest growth in per capita GDP would be China, Vietnam, India and Indonesia. Lloyds sees purchasing power in developing Asia rising 8 times between 2010 and 2030.14 While it is easy to dismiss these figures as indicators of Asian commercial marine power, this would be a mistake. These populous, wealthy urbanized economies will have the shipyards with the engineering skills, steel industries and technological capability to build blue water navies to protect their sea lines of communication. This report sees seaborne trade doubling15 and the volume of seaborne trade doubling from nine billion tons per annum to somewhere between 19 and 24bn tons by 2030. The sea lines of communication (SLOCs) will need protecting. They predict that China will see the largest growth in commercial fleet ownership, rivaling Greece and the rest of the European countries combined. And they think that China will become the world’s primary maritime market, leading in seaborne trade,

shipbuilding and vertically integrated ownership and ship management.16 The Growth of China’s Blue Water Navy and Rising Regional Tensions It might be easy to dismiss this rise in commercial shipbuilding as not relevant to the defense and naval sector. But there are powerful arguments to assert that the link between growth of GDP, the growth of seaborne trade and the development of a blue water navy are inter-related. The recent publication of the PRC military strategy17 makes this linkage abundantly clear. The new strategy published in late May 2015 states that “the seas and oceans bear on the enduring peace, lasting stability and sustainable development of China. The traditional mentality that land outweighs sea must be abandoned, and great importance has to be attached to managing the seas and oceans and protecting maritime rights and interests.” This is an important shift in emphasis. China makes the point that “in line with the strategic requirement of offshore waters defense and open seas protection”, “the PLA Navy (PLAN) will gradually shift its focus from ‘offshore waters defense’ to the combination of ‘offshore waters defense’ with “open seas protection.” China’s aim is to build a combined, multi-functional and efficient marine combat force structure. The PLAN will enhance its capabilities for strategic deterrence and counterattack, maritime maneuvers, joint operations at sea, comprehensive defense and comprehensive support.”18

The Role of China’s PLAN in Regional Disputes In line with its new economic power, China is already becoming assertive about its place in resolving long standing regional disputes. In China’s view some of its offshore neighbors take “provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on China’s reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied. They see that some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs; a tiny few maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 15

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

Lloyds sees purchasing power in developing Asia rising 8 times between 2010 and 2030

reconnaissance against China. It is thus a longstanding task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests. Certain disputes over land territory are still smoldering. The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are shrouded in instability and uncertainty. Regional terrorism, separatism and extremism are rampant. All these have a negative impact on the security and stability along China’s periphery.” Already in 2015, China is describing a reemphasis on its naval capability over its army and the need to take a strong and assertive position in the Pacific. Later in the report it underscores the importance of building its capability to be a maritime power.

The Emergence of India and Indonesia While China develops a blue water navy, Lloyds predicts a parallel growth in India

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and Indonesia – both populous emerging countries with advanced technological skills and a determination to defend long seacoasts and archipelagoes. Lloyds is not alone in its deductions. A recently published report by Solar Plaza delivers similar conclusions. Like Lloyds, they note that Asian players such as South Korea, China and Japan, mostly dominate the shipbuilding industry. However, they have a more nuanced position on which nation tops the league tables. In 2013, China led the market with the largest order book, while South Korea was leading in terms of contracting. The European shipbuilding industry recorded a remarkable growth in 2013, with new orders and increased order books. The emerging nations such as India, Vietnam, Brazil, the Philippines, and Turkey recorded significant growth in shipbuilding industry.19

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

Designing the Future of Naval Capability Mary Dub, International Security Writer

RITING ABOUT the future of naval design and consultancy for shipbuilding is not straightforward. It is of the nature of warfare for there to be disruptive change in technology itself and the use of technology. And uncertainty is always a given. It is the role of the opponent to use the unexpected to gain advantage in areas of weakness. However, there are certainties for NATO navies. There is little doubt about the continuing and growing economic and naval strength of China and other Asian states. With or without sequestration in the United States this threat is being addressed. In an interview with the Brookings Institute’s moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, US Admiral Greenert, the US Chief Naval Officer made a number of points. Firstly, the US Navy plans to homeport 60 percent of its overall fleet on the West coast and in other parts of the Asia-Pacific basin by 2020. Secondly, the US Navy’s fleet size is currently 289 major ships, with a trajectory to reach 308 by 2020 and 317 by the latter part of the next decade.20

The Recognition that Technology Must be Updated Constantly To meet the demands of full spectrum warfare, today’s naval ships must meet very high standards of capability. Ray Mabus, US Secretary of the Navy, reiterates this – there has been a proliferation of technologies that allows potential adversaries to threaten naval and air forces at greater ranges, complicates our access to some maritime regions, as well as our ability to maneuver within those regions, including the littoral and landward access. These include long-range ballistic and cruise missiles supported by state ofthe-art command and control with integrated targeting networks; there are guided rockets, artillery, missiles, and mortars; advanced submarines and “smart” mines; advanced integrated air defense systems; fifth-generation

fighter aircraft with enhanced sensors and weapons; and electronic warfare, cyber, and space capabilities.21

New Challenges from Electromagnetic Spectrum and Cyber Warfare

The list of future challenges for naval planners is long. One such is to meet the challenge of creating naval forces that have the resilience to operate under the most hostile cyber and EM (electromagnetic spectrum) conditions. Robotics and the future of unmanned sea vessels is another. A British government Joint Concept paper22 says that unmanned systems already play a central role in modern warfare, and ‘there is a real possibility that, after many false starts and broken promises, a technological tipping point is approaching that may well deliver a genuine revolution in military affairs’. But currently the major disadvantage of unmanned systems is their over reliance on real-time, or near real-time, communications and satellites for navigation and time keeping. This makes them noisy and hungry for bandwidth – which may not be there – and vulnerable to both soft and hard kill. Unmanned aerial or on sea or subsea vessels will not be mere add-ons, but potentially may prove to be the instigators of disruptive change in maritime assets. As the concept note makes clear, it would be wrong to view them as a bolt-on to current capabilities. Instead they will radically change the form and function of maritime assets.23

The Historic and Longstanding Importance of Sea Power and American Sea Power The United States with its long coastal borders has an historic obligation to maintain a navy. It is enshrined in the US Constitution.24 Further there is public recognition that “sea power has been and will continue to be the critical foundation of national power and prosperity and international prestige for the United States of America”.25 WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 17

SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

Currently the major disadvantage of unmanned systems is their over reliance on real-time, or near realtime, communications and satellites for navigation and time keeping

The role and size of the navy was a Presidential election issue when Obama stood for a second time and may well be again for the forthcoming Presidential election in 2016.26 What does this mean for the future of naval shipbuilding in Europe? I think it means that NATO countries will have a strong partner to work with and high expectations to live up to to meet NATO’s expectation that 2% of GDP is spent on defense forces including the navy.

Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Sea Power

The Future Market for Naval Design and Consultancy

The keystone of American strategy in 2015 is cooperation with allies. Ray Mabus makes this clear in saying that in today’s global security environment such threats can only be managed by cooperation with allies. It is easy to be cynical about mission statements and strategies, but the United States commitment to ‘a forward naval presence’ combined with a commitment to working with allies and partners’ naval forces is stronger when operated jointly and together with allies and partners to achieve synergy.

The major areas of growth for a future market for naval design and consultancy will undoubtedly be in Asia or the countries of the Middle East with long littoral borders and the economic strength to defend them. However, the demand by nation states to develop their own capabilities will undoubtedly complicate this. Nevertheless, the enduring demand to reduce costs by using the latest technology and engineering skills and to equip the new ships with the latest technology will create a rich seam of demand for European companies.

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SPECIAL REPORT: ADVANCES IN NAVAL VESSEL DESIGN AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES

References: 1

RAY MABUS US Secretary of the Navy http://www.navy.mil/local/maritime/150227-CS21R-Final.pdf A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Sea power 2015

Geoffrey Till’s Sea power: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century (Cass Series: Naval Policy and History) 2009

Shaping the international maritime discourse: the Royal Navy’s role RUSI Analysis, 17 Feb 2010 By Dr Lee Willett, Associate Fellow https://www.rusi.org/go.php?structureID=commentary&ref=C4B7C13DD39AA8#.VXCB20sf8pE

A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower: US Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus. Quote attributed to Adm Greenert, US Navy Chief of Operations

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/33686/20120503JCN112_Black_SwanU.pdf Speech by David Cameron, Statement on Strategic Defence and Security Review https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/statement-on-strategic-defence-and-security-review

Capt Rajesh Sinha, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, School of Management Studies. http://www.academia.edu/7743302/How_India_can_Capture_10_of_World_Shipbuilding_Market

http://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/118252/smm-2014-to-highlight-market-trends/ April 2014

12 Paragraph 118: JOINT CONCEPT NOTE 1/12 FUTURE ‘BLACK SWAN’ CLASS SLOOP-OF-WAR: A GROUP SYSTEM Joint Concept Note 1/12 (JCN 1/12), dated May 2012, is promulgated as directed by the Chiefs of Staff Head of Future and Maritime https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/33686/20120503JCN112_Black_SwanU.pdf 13

http://www.maritimeindustries.org/write/Uploads/News/2013/2nd%20Quarter/Global_Marine_Trends_2030_Brochure.pdf Global Marine Trends 2030 http://www.maritimeindustries.org/write/Uploads/News/2013/2nd%20Quarter/Global_Marine_Trends_2030_Brochure.pdf Global Marine Trends 2030 http://www.maritimeindustries.org/write/Uploads/News/2013/2nd%20Quarter/Global_Marine_Trends_2030_Brochure.pdf Global Marine Trends 2030 http://www.maritimeindustries.org/write/Uploads/News/2013/2nd%20Quarter/Global_Marine_Trends_2030_Brochure.pdf Global Marine Trends 2030 http://news.usni.org/2015/05/26/document-chinas-military-strategy China’s new strategy May 26th China’s Military Strategy May 26, 2015 6:54 AM http://news.usni.org/2015/05/26/document-chinas-military-strategy China’s new strategy May 26th China’s Military Strategy May 26, 2015 6:54 AM

19 Solar Plaza Market Reports online http://www.solarplaza.com/pressrelease/shipbuilding-industry-global-trends-market-size-2 20

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/brookings-now/posts/2014/11/us-navy-china-navy-future-maritime-strategy-cno-jonathan-greenert Fred Dews | November 5, 2014 10:07am The U.S. Navy, China’s Navy, and Future Maritime Strategy: Remarks by CNO Adm. Jonathan Greenert http://www.navy.mil/local/maritime/150227-CS21R-Final.pdf A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower RAY MABUS US Secretary of the Navy

22 JOINT CONCEPT NOTE 1/12 FUTURE ‘BLACK SWAN’ CLASS SLOOP-OF-WAR:A GROUP SYSTEM Joint Concept Note 1/12 (JCN 1/12), dated May 2012,as directed by the Chiefs of Staff Head of Future and Maritime https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/33686/20120503JCN112_Black_SwanU.pdf 23 JOINT CONCEPT NOTE 1/12 FUTURE ‘BLACK SWAN’ CLASS SLOOP-OF-WAR:A GROUP SYSTEM Joint Concept Note 1/12 (JCN 1/12), dated May 2012,as directed by the Chiefs of Staff Head of Future and Maritime https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/33686/20120503JCN112_Black_SwanU.pdf 24

http://www.navy.mil/local/maritime/150227-CS21R-Final.pdf A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower RAY MABUS US Secretary of the Navy http://www.navy.mil/local/maritime/150227-CS21R-Final.pdf A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower RAY MABUS US Secretary of the Navy USA Today Opinion | October 25, 2012 What Type of Navy Do We Really Need? By: Michael E. O’Hanlon Brookings WWW.DEFENCEINDUSTRYREPORTS.COM | 19

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Notes:

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