FNB July 2020 Employment Report

AUGUST ISSUE

IN THIS ISSUE Anchorage and industry employment analysis for July 2020 Anchorage housing market numbers Top employers and featured occupations Unemployment data for Southcentral and our take

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All data referenced in this employment report is from the State of Alaska, Dept. of Labor & Workforce Development (www.laborstats. alaska.gov) and from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls. gov).

Report compiled by Anchorage Economic Development Corp.

If you are interested in learning more about this data or are interested in how AEDC can help you develop a report, call AEDC at 907.258.3700.

2020 VS. 2019 YEAR TO DATE: BY THE NUMBERS - 6. 8% Y T D

TOTAL JOBS 140,400 -10,200 GOV. JOBS Federal State Local

-800 N/C -300 -600

GOODS PRODUCING -1,100

OIL & GAS -300

MONTHLY SUMMARY

3

The monthly summary, as well as industry gains and losses, are based on comparisons between the same month in 2018 and 2019. Month-on-month (e.g. July 2019 to August 2019) comparisons tend to show consistent seasonal trends, while comparing years show longer-term impacts of policy and macroeconomic change.

July 2020 experienced a drop of 15,600 jobs compared to July 2019. All sectors lost jobs substantial numbers of jobs with Leisure & Hospitality being the sector with the highest job losses at 5,800. There were no other industry sectors that did not lose a significant number of jobs in July 2020. The number of single-family homes sold year-to-date has increased significantly. The average sale price has risen to new record highs. Singlefamily home listings deceased suggesting that the housing market is a seller’s market. The top employers are Providence Health and Services, and the Anchorage School District, even though there are a high number of job losses in those industry sectors. Unemployment is at 10.8% in July 2020, down from 12.0% in June 2020. This month’s data reflect the continuing impacts of COVID-19 related shutdown of the Anchorage economy.

Revised jobs data for the first quarter of 2020 has just been released and show that the period of January through March saw an average 800 jobs lost in the quarter. This reflects a continuation of the 5-year recession into 2020 prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic impacts that now grip the city’s economy.

JULY LOSSES: AT A GLANCE CONSTRUCTION -500

MANUFACTURING -200

SERVICES PROVIDING -9,200

Oil & Gas -600

Food Services and Drinking Places -2,300

Construction –600

Other Services -500

Manufacturing -400

State Government -300

Wholesale Trade -100

State Education -300

Retail Trade -1,400

Local Government –700

Information -300

Local Education -400

Financial Activities -400

Professional & Business Services -1,200

Health Care – 1,400

Educational & Health Services –1,800

Leisure & Hospitality –5,800

Transportation/Warehouse/Utilities -1,500

Accommodation -1,500

FLAT HEALTH CARE -800

Federal Government N/C

THE BOTTOM LINE

LEISURE & HOSPITALITY

Anchorage’s job market continues to deal with unprecedented

-3,700

sector took a significant hit with particularly large impacts to

job losses as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. Every industry Leisure & Hospitality, Transportation, Health Care, Retail, and Oil & Gas.

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES -700

4

Anchorage Employment Municipality of Anchorage 2015‐Present

ANCHORAGE EMPLOYMENT

165,000 160,000 155,000

Total Anchorage employment

150,000

was at 138,400 in July 2020,

145,000

showing a decrease of about

140,000

15,600 jobs compared to July

135,000

2019.

130,000 125,000 120,000

Jan

Feb

March

April

May

2015

sector lost 1,600 jobs or 11% in

July 2017

Aug

Sept

2018

Oct

Nov

2019

Dec

2020

Goods Producing Jobs Municipality of Anchorage 2015 ‐ Present

GOODS PRODUCING JOBS Anchorage’s goods producing

June

2016

17,000 16,000

July 2020 compared with July 2019.

15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000

Jan

Feb

March 2015

April 2016

May

June 2017

July 2018

Aug 2019

Sept

Oct 2020

Nov

Dec

5

Construction Employment Municipality of Anchorage 2015‐Present

CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT

10,000 9,500 9,000

At 8,300 jobs, Anchorage construction

8,500

employment shed 600 jobs between July

8,000

2019 and July 2020. This is down from

7,500

modest increases construction jobs in 2018

7,000

and 2019.

6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000

Jan

Feb

March

April

2015

May

2016

June 2017

July

Aug

2018

Sept

2019

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

Oil & Gas Employment Municipality of Anchorage 2015‐Present 4,500

OIL & GAS EMPLOYMENT

4,000

Anchorage’s oil and gas sector shed 3,500

600 jobs between July 2019 and July 2020. This is a 24% decline.

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

Jan

Feb

March 2015

April

May 2016

June 2017

July 2018

Aug 2019

Sept

Oct 2020

Nov

Dec

6 Services Providing Jobs Municipality of Anchorage 2015 ‐ Present

SERVICES PROVIDING JOBS

150,000

Services providing industries shed

145,000

approximately 14,000 jobs between

140,000

July 2019 and July 2020. These

135,000

significant job losses are a result of complications and challenges due to

130,000

COVID-19.

125,000 120,000

Jan

Feb

March

April

2015

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES

June 2017

July 2018

Aug

Sept

2019

Oct

Nov

Dec

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

Professional & Business Services Municipality of Anchorage 2015 ‐ Present 21,000

Anchorage’s professional & business

20,500

services sector saw a decrease of

20,000

1,200 jobs between July 2019 and

19,500

July 2020.

May

2016

19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000

Jan

Feb

March 2015

May

2016

June 2017

July 2018

Aug

Sept

2019

2020

Health Care Employment Municipality of Anchorage 2015‐Present

HEALTH CARE EMPLOYMENT Health care employment in is down for

April

21,500

the first time in years with a loss of 1,400 jobs between July 2019 and 2020.

21,000

20,500

20,000

19,500

19,000

18,500

Jan

Feb

March 2015

April 2016

May

June 2017

July 2018

Aug 2019

Sept

Oct 2020

Nov

Dec

7

NOW HIRING FEATURED OPENINGS

BY OCCUPATION SOURCE: JOBSEQ®

Retail Salespersons TOTAL ADS: 454

Registered Nurses

Average annual: $27,774

TOTAL ADS: 320

Average annual: $72,472

Stockers & Order Fillers TOTAL ADS: 290

Average annual: $31,200

TOP EMPLOYERS TOP EMPLOYERS BY TOTAL ADS JULY 2020 SOURCE: JOBSEQ®

Company

Total Ads

Providence Health and Services 317 The University of Alaska 182 Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium 173 Anchorage School District 143 Alaska Teacher Placement 123 Humana 91 Carrs 85 Lowes 84 State of Alaska 78 Municipality of Anchorage 69

For more employment insights, don’t miss our Real-Time Jobs report, available quarterly at aedcweb.com. Data source: JobsEQ

8 Anchorage Single Family Home Listings Monthly Totals 10‐Year Comparison as of 07/31/2020 Data Source: Alaska Multiple Listings Service

1,400 1,200 1,000

638

800 600 400 200 ‐

2011

2012

January

2013 February

2014

2015

March

2016 April

2017

2018

May

2019 June

2020 July

ANCHORAGE SINGLE-FAMILY HOME LISTINGS YTD 10-YEAR COMPARISON Anchorage’s single-family home listings stood at 638 as of July 2020, a decrease of 271 from 909 listings in July 2019.

Anchorage Single Family Home Monthly Unit Sales Monthly 10‐Year Comparison as of 07/31/2020 Data Source: Alaska Multiple Listings Service

450

388

400

January February

350

March

300

April

250

May June

200

July

150

August

100

September

50 ‐

October 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

ANCHORAGE SINGLE-FAMILY HOME MONTHLY UNIT SALES YTD 10-YEAR COMPARISON Anchorage’s single-family home monthly unit sales stood at 388 in June 2020, which is up 78 from July 2019 at 310 sales.

November December

9 Anchorage Single Family Home Average Sale Price YTD 10‐Year Comparison as of 07/31/2020 $400,000 $390,000 $380,000 $370,000 $360,000 $350,000 $340,000 $330,000 $320,000 $310,000 $300,000 $290,000

Data Source: Alaska Multiple Listings Service

$358,634

$324,114

2011

$332,689

2012

$368,037

$387,497

$362,836

$362,950

2016

2017

$369,195

$364,588

$341,687

2013

2014

2015

2018

2019

2020

ANCHORAGE SINGLE-FAMILY HOME AVERAGE SALES PRICE YTD 10-YEAR COMPARISON The average price of a single-family home in Anchorage dropped to $350,926 in November 2019 from $365,041 in November 2018.

Anchorage Single Family Homes Total Unit Sales YTD 10‐Year Comparison as of 07/31/2020 Data Source: Alaska Multiple Listings Service

1,800

1,653

1,600 1,400

1,277

1,405

1,546

1,687

1,584

1,544

1,533

1,475

2016

2017

2018

2019

1,588

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 ‐

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

ANCHORAGE SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES TOTAL UNIT SALES YTD 10-YEAR COMPARISON The number of single-family home unit sales year-to-date increased in July 2020 to 1,586, up 211 units sold compared to the period in 2019, showing a significant increase in home sales.

2020

10

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA UNEMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS (2020, YTD) TAKEAWAY

Anchorage’s unemployment rate in July was 10.8%, down 1.2% compared to June 2020. To date there are 15,750 unemployed individuals compared to 7,131 in July of 2019. Anchorage’s labor force stands at 146,014 (employment + unemployment = labor force). Statewide, the Alaska Department of Labor noted over 38,096 unemployed individuals for the month of July 2020 compared to 19,960 in July 2019.

Anchorage continues to show the lowest unemployment numbers in the southcentral region with the Kenai Peninsula Borough coming in at 11.9% unemployment, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough at 11.8% unemployment and the State of Alaska as a whole at 10.8% unemployment for the beginning of July 2020.

MAY REVISED

JUNE REVISED

JULY PRELIMINARY

MUNCIPALITY OF ANCHORAGE Labor force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate

142,856 125,242 17,614 12.3%

148,733 130,926 17,807 12.0%

MAT-SU BOROUGH Labor force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate

45,046 39,191 5,855 13.0%

47,200 41,015 6,185 13.1%

46,302 40,826 5,476 11.8%

46,249 41,337 4,913 10.6%

47,105 43,522 3,584 7.6

(856) (2,185) 1,329 3.0%

KENAI PENINSULA BOROUGH Labor force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate

25,378 21,807 3,571 14.1%

26,860 23,251 3,609 13.4%

26,985 23,761 3,224 11.9%

25,527 22,649 2,878 11.3%

26,068 24,581 1,916 7.3%

(542) (1,932) 962 3.9%

SOUTHCENTRAL REGION Labor force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Rate

213,280 186,240 27,040 12.7%

222,793 195,192 27,601 12.4%

219,301 194,851 24,450 11.1%

216,856 195,937 20,919 9.6%

220,392 207,225 13,166 6.0%

(3,535) (11,288) 7,753 3.7%

STATE OF ALASKA Labor force Employment Unemployment

Unemployment Rate

334,106 292,153 41,953 12.6%

350,803 307,582 43,221 12.3%

351,838 313,742 38,096 10.8%

146,014 130,364 15,750 10.8%

20 YTD AVERAGE

19 YTD AVERAGE

145,080 131,952 13,129 9.0%

147,218 139,551

7,667 5.2%

341,455 308,400 33,055 9.7%

352,107 328,782 23,325 6.6%

20 VS 19 YTD (2,137) (7,599) 5,462 3.8%

(10,652) (20,382) 9,730 3.1%

ALASKA UNEMPLOYMENT, JULY 2020 Unemployment Rates, Alaska and U.S.

Area Unemployment Rates

January 2013 to July 2020

Not seasonally adjusted1 Rate

14%

07/20

10% 8%

Alaska

6%

U.S.

4%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section; and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wage and Salary Employment Percent change from same month the previous year Actual

3.0%

Es�mated

1.0% -1.0% -3.0% -5.0% -7.0% -9.0% -11.0% -13.0% -15.0%

06/20

07/19

Anchorage/Mat-Su Region Anchorage, Municipality Matanuska-Susitna Borough

11.0 10.8 11.8

12.2 12.0 13.1

5.3 4.9 6.6

Gulf Coast Region Kenai Peninsula Borough Kodiak Island Borough Valdez-Cordova Census Area

10.7 11.9 8.0 7.8

12.5 13.4 10.3 10.3

5.1 5.5 4.0 4.5

Interior Region Denali Borough Fairbanks North Star Borough Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area

9.3 9.4 8.9 9.1 15.8

10.8 12.2 10.5 10.8 16.3

5.5 3.5 4.9 8.2 13.7

Northern Region Nome Census Area North Slope Borough Northwest Arctic Borough

13.7 15.4 8.3 16.8

15.0 16.1 9.9 18.8

11.6 12.6 7.0 15.4

Southeast Region Haines Borough Hoonah-Angoon Census Area Juneau, City and Borough Ketchikan Gateway Borough Petersburg Borough Prince of Wales-Hyder CA Sitka, City and Borough Skagway, Municipality Wrangell, City and Borough Yakutat, City and Borough

11.3 15.9 14.5 10.2 12.7 9.3 13.3 8.9 19.1 10.8 10.8

13.2 20.1 16.7 11.7 14.5 13.6 14.1 11.8 18.7 12.9 12.9

4.7 4.7 6.8 3.9 4.8 6.1 9.5 3.4 2.7 6.2 5.1

Southwest Region Aleutians East Borough Aleutians West Census Area Bethel Census Area Bristol Bay Borough Dillingham Census Area Kusilvak Census Area Lake and Peninsula Borough

10.8 3.1 4.1 16.4 2.8 7.6 25.3 9.5

13.5 5.6 9.5 15.8 6.9 10.1 24.7 12.3

8.8 1.7 2.7 13.9 1.7 6.0 22.9 7.2

Seasonally adjusted

12%

2%

P

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section P = Preliminary. As more information becomes available, data are revised every month for the previous month and again at the end of every calendar year.

Regional Employment

Note: The official definition of unemployment excludes anyone who has not actively attempted to find work in the four-week period up to and including the week that includes the 12th of the reference month.

July 2020 compared to July 2019

Unemployment rates that are not seasonally adjusted should not be compared with those that are.

1

Anchorage/ Mat-Su Region

-17,400 -4,200 -7,800

Interior Region Southeast Region

-5,500

Gulf Coast Region -2,400 -2,100

Northern Region Southwest Region

Regional totals may not sum to statewide total due to rounding and independent estimation methods.

Source: Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Data viaAlaska the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development Analysis Section

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section; and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics