11 May 2018 | 2:00PM EDT
Mexico: Balance of Political Power in Congress Is Likely to Shift to the Left
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Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)’s Morena party did not win any governorships in the 2016 local elections (in 12 of the 31 Mexican Federation States), but it did run competitively in two of those elections (Veracruz and Zacatecas). In the June 4, 2017 local election Morena did not do that well either: the party ran competitively in the pivotal State of Mexico, but finished second to the PRI candidate.
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Overall, Morena is yet to win a major local election in close to three years. But that may be about to change as recent polls show the Morena-led coalition is currently well positioned to potentially win the presidency and build a strong legislative bench in both Chambers of Congress (mostly at the expense of the PRI). Jul 1 Election day Apr 22 May 20 Jun 12 1st debate 2nd debate 3rd debate
Sep 1 1st Congressional Session
Dec 1 Presidential Inauguration
Mar 30 - Jun 27 Campaign
Polls Suggest AMLO’s Morena-Led Coalition Would Become Largest Political Bloc in Congress The main focus on the upcoming general elections has been on the presidential race but the post-election composition of the new federal Congress is also important for the overall direction of policy. The latest Mitofsky poll shows that AMLO’s Morena-led coalition could take control of the Lower House. In the bicameral Congress, the Lower House has 500 seats. The Mitofsky poll shows that the Morena-led coalition (Morena-PT-PES) enjoys the preference of close to 39% of voters, which could translate (depending on the regional distribution of the vote) into a Lower House bench of between 195 and 262 seats (up from the 60 seats currently held by the Morena-led coalition). That is, if the current level of support holds until election day, AMLO’s Morena-led political coalition is closing in on a simple majority in the House.
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