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INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
responding over the next 20 years to the changing shopping behaviours of better-informed consumers and invest in strategies and technologies to help us mitigate the impact of climate change to ensure our continued food security while partnering with government to improve the health of the nation, we can only do that if we have a successful food manufacturing industry. And that’s the fundamental challenge facing government today. Maintaining a thriving, innovative and profitable food system to 2030 and beyond has to be an overarching government priority in its own right. We need clear, coherent and consistent policies across Whitehall. We need a political, fiscal and regulatory framework which promotes efficiency of resource use, stimulates innovation and attracts the investment that will be needed if our industry is to continue to thrive in 2030. More than that, policy making needs to be proportionate and balanced, with a clear focus on maintaining our sector’s ability to compete and to build future capacity here, rather than overseas. Critical perhaps to the success of all that will be government’s ability to work with industry to agree a shared vision of what we think a healthy, low environmental impact actually diet looks like.
“There will be an explosion in world population growth in the next 20 years – eight billion by 2030, rising to 12 billion by 2050. All of whom will need to be fed” Only then can we decide how best to encourage a change in consumer behaviours – and which behaviours need changing – as well as highlighting any long-term support necessary to help the entire food chain equip itself to change the products we make. But it is complicated stuff. We will need to adopt common methodologies for proper life cycle analysis of impacts across the value chain and then we will need to use these in ways that promote rational decision making which takes full account of the social aspects of sustainability as well as the potential economic implications of what is being proposed. None of which will be easily captured in a simple sound-bite. So I do get frustrated when I see so-called experts telling us that the answer to all of our problems is for British consumers to cut down on meat and dairy and reduce their intakes of processed foods. It’s not as simple as that. There will never be one, clear-cut answer in this debate. Anyone claiming otherwise is being disingenuous. There will always have to be hard trade-offs that reflect the personal preferences, incomes and cultures of the many different population groups that inhabit our crowded world. And a diet that is healthy will not always necessarily be low impact. For instance, vegetables grown in greenhouses may have a high carbon footprint but then vegetables grown elsewhere may have a damaging water footprint. Which is more important for the environment? If we don’t buy fresh vegetables from Africa, how does that sit with our responsibility to help economic development overseas? And what do we want to do: encourage consumers to eat more vegetables, which may mean buying more frozen and canned produce, or encourage them to eat only UK field-grown, seasonable vegetables?
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The answer to each of these questions – and myriad more – clearly represents different sets of challenges, choices and trade-offs for government, for the food chain and for consumers. And we cannot address these issues as if we existed in splendid isolation from the rest of the world – and from the potential global impacts of climate and demographic change, environmental degradation and future shortages of fossil fuels and water. In that future global context, the question for government is actually pretty simple: what should we be doing today to maintain the UK’s food security for tomorrow? Is it really about trying to stop the production of meat and dairy in the UK, thus running the risk of externalising our environmental impacts in the short-term (as imports increase) as well as undermining our ability to respond to long-term changes in food production and sourcing. After all, from a UK perspective, cattle and sheep kept on land that can’t support any other form of cropping is surely an important use of that valuable resource. And let’s not forget another important fact. As I have said already, consumers in 2030 will, in many ways, behave exactly the same as shoppers today. They will not want to live in a drab world of limited choices, where we buy food that looks grey, smells grey and comes in grey packets. They will want food that is tasty. They will want food that excites the senses. And they will want food that is pleasurable – whether eating a nice slice of toast for breakfast or chomping an indulgent treat or sitting down with the family to enjoy a Sunday roast. Will the food industry still be able to deliver all of that in 2030? As I said at the start, predictions can be dangerous things. I am not blind to the massive challenges that lie ahead. I understand that by 2030, we will be living in an increasingly uncertain world. But my vision of the future is not all gloomy. I predict that we will be delivering the goods in 2030. I remain optimistic that in 20 years time we will have an industry that has successfully adapted to the changes happening all around it. Just as we have always done. I believe that new skills, technologies and innovations will have underpinned our efforts to become ever more resource efficient – and ensured that we are well equipped to meet the needs of a new generation of better-informed and even more demanding consumers. I also see an industry working in genuine partnership with government, and others, to tackle public health issues such as obesity – and getting to grips with the emerging nutrition challenges posed by an ageing population. And in doing all of this, I predict a profitable food manufacturing sector, which has grown in size and is providing thousands of jobs across the country, as well as a vital outlet for the output of an economically vibrant British farming community. But if my optimistic vision is to be realised, my challenge to government remains stop taking us for granted. Develop a national policy that reflects the key strategic role food and drink manufacturers will play in ensuring the nation’s future food security. And work with us to ensure our sector is in a fit state to meet the many challenges of 2030. Otherwise, I predict an alternative vision for the future of food that I frankly think is far too unpalatable a thing to contemplate. This article is based on a speech given by Ross Wharburton in London in 2010.
07/01/2011 14:43