HNDA TA06 Review of Supply and Demand / Need for Housing by GCVSDPA

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Market Partnership Housing Need and Demand Assessment Technical Appendix 06 Review of Supply and Demand / Need for Housing November 2010

HNDA W

Contents 1

Introduction

Methodology

Estimates of Stock and Households at Base Date a) Population b) Housing stock c) Households d) Household Types e) Geography

Existing Need 4

Backlog Need

Future Need/Demand 5

Projections of Population and Households â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Descriptions of Assumptions and Results

Household Tenure Projections a. Introduction b. Stage 1 and Stage 2

Stock Projections a. Private Sector b. Affordable Sector

Private Sector a. Local and Mobile Demand b. Private sector Comparison of Demand and Supply

Affordable Sector a. Social Rented Comparison of Need and Supply i. Housing Needs Assessment ii. All Stock/All Households b. Intermediate Sector

Reconciliation of Methodologies 1 and 2 for the Affordable Sector

List of Tables List of Annexes Annex A Projections of Population and Households Tables Annex B Housing Supply Templates Please note as a working draft all information has not been presented. Results from the low migration (A1) scenario have not been included. Information has also to be provided for private sector households at 2020 and 2025 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; dis-aggregation to housing market areas.

List of Tables Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 6.5 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Table 7.3 Table 8.1 Table 8.2 Table 8.3 Table 8.4 Table 8.5 Table 8.6 Table 9.1 Table 9.2 Table 9.3 Table 9.4 Table 9.5 Table 9.6 Table 9.7 Table 9.8 Table 9.9 Table 9.10

Total Population 2008 Estimates of Stock, Vacancies and Households, 30 June 2008 Total Current Need Current housing need: total need and excluding those able to address needs in the market/intermediate, LA level Population Change Annual Population Change by Component Annual Population Change by Age Households - Comparison of estimated and projected change 2001-2008 Household Change Annual Household Change by Age of Household Representative Projection C2 (High Affordability) Stage 1: Projected Inflows into Social Rented Sector Projection C2 (Low Affordability) Stage 1: Projected Inflows into Social Rented Sector Projection C2 (High Affordability) Stage 2: Projected Tenure Split of Total Households 2008-2025 Projection C2 (Low Affordability) Stage 2: Projected Tenure Split of Total Households 2008-2025 Summary of Household Projections for GCVSDPA 2008-2025 Private Sector Housing Land Supply 2009-2025 Private Sector Housing Stock Projections for LA and Housing Market Areas 2008 to 2020 and 2025 Social Rented Housing Stock Projections for LA 2008to 2016, 2020 and 2025 Percentage of house-buying movers who searched in more than one Sub-Market Area Private Households - 2013 Projection - Mobile and Local Demand Private Households – 2020 Projection – Mobile and Local Demand Private Households – 2025 Projection – Mobile and Local Demand Projection C2 High Affordability: Comparison of private supply and demand (including Lower Estimate Backlog Need) at 2020 Projection C2 High Affordability: Comparison of private supply and demand (including Lower Estimate Backlog Need) at 2020 Summary of GCV Area Housing Need Requirement in Accordance with Housing Needs Assessment Supply/Need Comparison Model 2008-2025 GCVSDPA Housing Needs Assessment Summary by Local Authority to 2025 – Low Affordability GCVSDPA Housing Needs Assessment Summary by Local Authority to 2025 – High Affordability East Dunbartonshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 – 2025 East Renfrewshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 – 2025 Glasgow City Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 Inverclyde Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 North Lanarkshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 Renfrewshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 South Lanarkshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025

Table 9.11 Table 9.12 Table 9.13 Table 9.14 Table 9.15 Table 9.16

West Dunbartonshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 Summary of GCV Area Cumulative Housing Need Requirement in Accordance with All Stock/All Households Supply/Need Comparison Model 2008-2025 Projection C2 Low Affordability Comparison of Projected Social Rented Households and Housing Stock at 2016 (including Backlog Need) Projection C2 Low Affordability Comparison of Projected Social Rented Households and Housing Stock at 2020 (including Backlog Need) Projection C2 Low Affordability Comparison of Projected Social Rented Households and Housing Stock at 2025 (including Backlog Need) Maximum potential LCHO 2016 by LA (Tribal/Optimal Economics)

List of Annex Tables Annex A

Projections of Population and Households Tables

Table A1

Net migration by Council area for 3 Health Board areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008 Net migration by Component for 3 Health Board areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008 Trend coefficients by component for different base periods Net migration (excluding asylum seekers) in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area and Rest of Scotland in 1981-2008 Derivation of migration assumptions HNDA projection Derivation of net migration assumptions by Council area Net migration assumptions by Council area for Scenarios A and C – after adjustment for initial years Comparison GROS and SDP migration assumptions with assumptions 2006 Plan Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Component HNDA lower migration scenario (A) HNDA planning scenario (C) 2006 Structure Plan Alteration Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Age Estimated annual changes by household type in 2001-2008 Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area, by Household Type and by Age of Household Representative Household Projections by Local Authority Sub Area HNDA lower migration scenario (A) HNDA planning scenario (C) Example West Dunbartonshire 2008/09 – Detailed Calculations New households and terminations by Council Area 2008/09 and 2024/25 HNDA lower migration scenario (A) HNDA planning scenario (C) Projected new households by Local Authority Sub Area HNDA lower migration scenario (A) – 2008/09 HNDA lower migration scenario (A) – 2024/25 HNDA planning scenario (C) – 2008/09 HNDA planning scenario (C) – 2024/25 Projected in-migrant households by Local Authority Sub Area HNDA lower migration scenario (A) – 2008/09 HNDA lower migration scenario (A) – 2024/25 HNDA planning scenario (C) – 2008/09 HNDA planning scenario (C) – 2024/25

Table A2.1 Table A2.2 Table A3.1 Table A3.2 Table A4 Table A5 Table A6 Table A7 Table A8.1 Table A8.2 Table A8.3 Table A9 Table A10 Table A11 Table A12 Table A13.1 Table A13.2 Table A14 Table A15.1 Table A15.2 Table A16.1 Table A16.2 Table A16.3 Table A16.4 Table A17.1 Table A17.2 Table A17.3 Table A17.4

Annex B

Housing Supply Templates

Table B1

Table B1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template Sector' - HLA/UC New Build - East Dunbartonshire Council Table B1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template Sector' - HLA/UC New Build - East Renfrewshire Council Table B1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template Sector' - HLA/UC New Build - Glasgow City Council Table B1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template Sector' - HLA/UC New Build - Inverclyde Council Table B1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template Sector' - HLA/UC New Build - North Lanarkshire Council Table B1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template Sector' - HLA/UC New Build - Renfrewshire Council Table B1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template Sector' - HLA/UC New Build - South Lanarkshire Council Table B1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template Sector' - HLA/UC New Build - West Dunbartonshire Council

Table B2 Table B3 Table B4 Table B5 Table B6 Table B1 Table B1

'Affordable 'Affordable 'Affordable 'Affordable 'Affordable 'Affordable 'Affordable 'Affordable

1.0

Introduction

1.1

Under the new planning system Strategic Development Plans (SDPs) have replaced Structure Plans in city regions and the approach to assessing housing requirements has changed. The Scottish Government in 2008 introduced a new approach to planning for housing based on Housing Need and Demand Assessment Guidance (HNDA). Alongside SPP (and former SPP3) and Local Housing Strategy Guidance, authorities’ planning and housing departments are required to work together in a Housing Market Partnership, to produce an HNDA that will provide the evidence base for identifying future housing requirements by housing market areas, across all tenures, and will inform SDPs, Local Housing Strategies (LHSs) and Local Development Plans (LDPs).

1.2

The Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Structure Plan Joint Committee has for both the 2000 and 2006 Joint Structure Plans undertaken an assessment of supply and demand for housing by producing population and household projections, tenuring the household projections and comparing projected housing demand and housing stock to assess housing land requirements. Although this approach focussed on the owner occupied sector, a wider picture including the social rented sector was presented in the 2006 Joint Structure Plan. However, this view did not represent a full assessment of all housing needs in the social rented sector, or the scale or range of need identified in individual LHSs.

1.3

The Housing (Scotland) Act 2001 placed a statutory requirement on local authorities to prepare a local housing strategy (LHS) supported by an assessment of housing need and demand. The eight GCV local authorities prepared their LHSs in 2004 to provide the strategic direction to tackle housing need and demand across the local authority area. The local needs assessment provided a more detailed spatial and sectoral analysis of housing needs than that undertaken in the Joint Structure Plan.

1.4

The Glasgow and Clyde Valley 2011 Strategic Development Plan Main Issues Report (MIR) has to provide an initial assessment of private sector housing land requirements based on comparisons of projected housing demand and housing stock, and an outline of what is termed the ‘affordable housing sector’. The purpose of this Technical Appendix is to describe in detail the methodology and to present the results of each stage of the projection process, for both the private (owner-occupied and private rented) sector, and the affordable (social rented and ‘intermediate’) sector.

1.5

Not all of the outcomes that have been generated are provided in this Technical Appendix, however the complete output will be available in the Finalised Draft HNDA in 2011 following further work by the Housing Market Partnership Core Group (HMPCG) and this round of consultation.

1.6

The assessment of the requirement for additional housing land for the private sector covers two distinct time periods, determined through SPP (and former SPP3) by the anticipated adoption of LDPs. The SDP has to plan for a period of 10 years after LDP adoption, which is assumed to be 2015. Providing a 5 year effective land requirement for the LDPs determines that land requirements should be set out up to 2020 initially, and, in order to maintain this until the next LDP update, for the period 2020 to 2025. Given that the SDP timescale is determined by the anticipated adoption date of LDPs, the lead in time is longer than it has been in the past. The 5 year effective housing land supply for the LDPs will therefore have to include an element of urban capacity. The relevant dates to determine land requirements comprise the following:

Up to 2020 a) one year of completions 2008/2009 b) seven years effective land supply 2009-2016 (2009 HLA) c) urban capacity 2016-2020 2020-25 a) urban capacity 2020-2025 1.7

For the affordable housing sector (social rented and ‘intermediate housing’), to meet LHS requirements the relevant time periods are 2016, 2020 and 2025. It should be noted that for the purposes of this assessment the affordable sector has been defined as the social rented sector and ‘intermediate housing’ products which have been identified as Low Cost Home Ownership.

1.8

Sections 3, 5 and 6 set out the position on population, households, tenure and stock at the 2008 base date.

1.9

The estimates of housing demand are based on a set of population, household and tenure projections for 2016, 2020 and 2025, the final outcomes of which are separate household projections for the private (Section 8) and affordable sectors (Section 9). The methodology to project future tenure change is different from the approach adopted in former Structure Plans. The tenuring of projected households has been undertaken by Tribal/Optimal Economics as part of the HNDA process. The overall methodology and process adopted by Tribal/Optimal Economics are summarised in Section 6 and further detail can be obtained from TA05 Affordability Analysis.

1.10

The tenured projections require output within two different geographies. For the private sector, the geographical framework for the comparison of supply and demand is the Housing Market Area (HMA) system that was developed for the 2000 Joint Structure Plan and re-examined and reaffirmed for the 2006 Plan. This framework of HMAs has been reviewed again using more recent data on house-buying moves, the outcome of which is presented in TA01 ‘A Housing Market Framework’ For the affordable (predominantly social rented) housing sector, the relevant geography is at the level of local authorities, and for the defined LA sub-areas within these boundaries.

1.11

Data availability requires the population, household and tenure projections to be based, initially, on local authority areas, but the results are disaggregated to 31 local authority sub areas. The private sector housing requirements are then re-aggregated to 13 Housing Sub Market areas, which fit the HMA system. Underlying the population (and therefore household and tenure) projections is an implicit set of assumptions on housing-led migration within the GCV area. If left in this form and without an allowance for demand that can be met over a wider area (mobile demand), the projections would simply perpetuate past trends in housing-led migration and be inconsistent with a planled approach.

1.12

For the above reasons, it is important to view the housing demand projections as a two-stage process, setting out the projections and then assessing supply and demand in Section 8. The Affordable sector is covered separately in Section 9.

1.13

Before outlining the process and results of this second stage, Sections 5-7 produce a set of household projections that incorporate gross flows, i.e. new and in-migrant households and household terminations. This information was then provided to Tribal/Optimal Economics, who split the new and in-migrant household flows by tenure at LA and LA sub area level. In addition, Tribal/Optimal Economics split the household terminations by tenure and projected household inter-tenure flows at LA level. This resulted in the projected stock of households by tenure at LA level. The projected private sector households by LA area were disaggregated to LA sub areas and, after aggregation to Housing Sub-Market area level, this represents the private sector housing requirements. At this stage the projections are an intermediate stage in the process of estimating demand for the HMA framework. They should not be treated as demand figures for local authority areas as they do not allow for the effect of mobile demand. Section 7 sets out the private sector stock projections for each local authority and the HMA framework.

1.14

In Section 8, the effect of past housing-led migration is removed from the private sector household projections by making the distinction between local and mobile demand. This only applies to the Housing Sub Market Areas in the two Conurbation HMAs and the final stage compares projected supply and demand within the HMA framework. The affordable housing sector is again covered separately at the local authority level in Section 9.

Status of this document 1.15 This is a working draft for consultation purposes. It will be revised, taking account of comments and responses received, prior to submission of the HNDA to the Centre for Housing Market Analysis (CHMA) in 2011. 1.16

Section 2 will now set out a summary of the methodology adopted to undertake an assessment of housing land requirements.

2.0

Methodology

2.1

The Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Market Partnership (GCVHMP) has endeavoured to undertake an assessment of housing need and demand based on the HNDA guidance, however, this process has had its difficulties for several reasons. Firstly, the HNDA guidance focuses on a housing needs assessment approach as undertaken traditionally for the social rented sector in preparation of councils’ LHSs. As a result, there is very little guidance on how to undertake an assessment of demand for the private sector. It is not possible to use the same approach taken for the social rented sector, as the private market operates in a different way to the social rented sector. House prices and private rent levels reflect demand and social rent levels are set to meet social need. Also, for social rented housing there is detailed information on lettings and type of housing required, information which is not available to the same extent and detail for house purchases and private lettings. So it has been necessary to adopt two different methodologies for each sector. In addition the private market and social rented sector operate within different geographical frameworks (see TA01 HMA). The private sector operates in a housing market area framework which crosses local authority boundaries, while the affordable sector predominantly operates within local authority boundaries. As two different methodologies have been used the outcomes/results of these methodologies have to be reconciled to provide an overview for the housing market as a whole. Notwithstanding the difficulties of this new approach, the GCVHMP Core Group is confident that the assessment has been undertaken in the spirit of the HNDA guidance and more detail of the methodology can be found in TA05 ‘Affordability Analysis’.

2.2

The GCVSDPA undertook population and household projections for the period 20082025 as detailed in Section 5. The household projections are then tenured. In previous Structure Plans, this tenuring presented results for the private sector, while the social rented sector was treated as a residual outcome. This assessment was progressed through the planning system with the social rented sector represented by a broad strategic overview; while each local authority undertook more detailed assessments of this sector through their individual local housing strategies. With the introduction of the HNDA guidance, the Scottish Government has sought to encourage local authorities to undertake a strategic assessment of housing requirements so that it now requires the integration of the two assessments into one, to inform both the planning system and the LHS process. In order to achieve this, a more sophisticated model was considered essential and Tribal/Optimal Economics were commissioned to assist with this and undertake an affordability study.

Tribal/Optimal Economics Study 2.3

The GCVSDA provided Tribal/Optimal Economics with two sets of household projections: A Planning scenario (named C2) and a Low migration scenario (named A1), which were required as a minimum for the SDP. Projected households were provided both in terms of total projected households, and in terms of flows, i.e. new households and household terminations. The difference in the two household projection scenarios relates to the underlying migration and household formation assumptions used. Output was required for the three main tenures, owner occupied, private rented and social rented, with the addition of an assessment of the potential for an ‘intermediate sector’, which has been denfined by the HMPCG as being subsidised low cost home ownership. Social renting and the intermediate sector together, make up the affordable housing requirement for practical reasons.

2.4

The Affordability Study (refer TA05) sought to answer two questions: • •

2.5

How many new and migrant households could/could not afford to meet their housing needs in the market now and in the future? Of those unable to meet their needs in the market, how many could afford to meet their needs using ‘intermediate housing’ market products?

The study considered the components of projected tenure change and provided an alternative approach to tenuring the household projections. Tribal/Optimal Economics approached this by concluding that an income/house price ratio is an over-simplistic way to determine affordability and have developed an alternative behavioural model. They began their study by observing the choices made by households to seek to identify the factors that influence housing choices: stage in life cycle, employment status, household composition and income. They concluded that income and the age distribution of households are the key drivers of tenure choice among new households. More detail on the methodology can be found in Technical Appendice TA05 ‘Affordability Analysis’.

Stages 1 & 2 2.6 Tribal/Optimal Economics undertook their work in two stages. The first modelled tenure change for new (focussing on younger households, 35 and under) and migrant households for LA and LA sub area, the second stage models tenure flows for all households (ref 2.6). • Stage 1 models tenure choice for inflows of new and in-migrant households. The share of these households, which cannot afford private sector housing, is an important input for the social housing need assessment, in line with the HNDA Guidance, and is compared with councils’ projected re-lets. • Stage 2 models inter-tenure flows, as well as the tenure split for household terminations. These are required to calculate the total future private sector households, which have to be compared with future private sector housing stock, based on programmed housing completions from the private sector land supply. Private Rented Sector High/Low Affordability 2.7 Relatively robust data is available for the owner occupied sector, however, the private rented sector is much smaller and Tribal/Optimal Economics had to adopt an income/house rent ratio for this sector. There is some uncertainty over the proportion of income private rented (PRS) households are prepared to commit to housing costs due to the wide variation of tenants in this sector. Therefore, high and low affordability thresholds of 25%, 33% or 40% have been considered depending on the local authority. •

The low affordability scenario assumes households are able to spend up to 25% of their income on PRS (or 33% if they live in Glasgow or East Dunbartonshire)

•

The high affordability scenario assumes that households are able to spend 33% of their income on PRS (or 40% if they live in Glasgow or East Dunbartonshire)

The result for the GCV area under the low affordability scenario is significantly slower growth in owner occupation and growth of 10% in the social rented sector. Under the high affordability scenario there is continued growth in owner occupation, albeit at a slower pace than in the past and more modest changes in social and private renting.

2.8

Even though both levels of affordability show different results the overall finding is of a more stable tenure profile suggesting that growth in owner occupation has levelled and the decline in the social rented sector is slowing. Uncertainty remains due to the behaviour of the private rented sector and it is the level of affordability in this sector which has impacted on the results/outcomes in 2.7.

Current/Backlog Need 2.9 The HMPCG has undertaken an assessment of existing need and Tribal/Optimal Economics has applied an affordability test to Backlog Need to determine how many households could meet their own needs in the market. Backlog Need is discussed in more detail in Section 4. Tribal/Optimal Economics Results 2.10 Tribal/Optimal Economics has produced the following tenure projections: • Household projections for the planning scenario (C2) and the lower migration scenario (A1) • High and low PRS affordability • Upper and lower estimates of Backlog Need, based on affordability Summary Results 2.11 Results will be presented for the following: • Private sector – planning scenario (C2) - high affordability • Affordable sector – planning scenario (C2) - low affordability • Including the upper estimate of Backlog Need These results represent the maximum projected level of housing requirements as identified in the MIR. Housing Land Requirements 2.12 The Tribal/Optimal Economics results provide an important step in the process identifying the demand for housing for the relevant tenures. It is then necessary to compare demand and supply to ascertain housing requirements which is set out in Sections 8 and 9. 2.13

Section 3 will now set out the Estimates of Stock and Households at the Base Date.

3.0

Estimates of Stock and Households at Base Date

3.1

The initial step in the projection process is to establish the base from which the various elements of the projection are made. There is a need to ensure consistency between data sets so that there is a clear understanding of the relationship between population, households and housing stock at the base date. This section describes the sources and methodology used to determine population, housing stock and households at the 2008 base.

Population 3.2 The population base used is the 2008 Mid Year Estimates of Population (MYE) produced by GROS. This is considered to be the most accurate available and is consistent with the approach used in the approved 2006 Structure Plan. The base date population for the GCV area is 1,755,310. Table 3.1 sets out population at 2008 for each of the eight authorities. Table 3.1 - Total Population 2008 LA East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV Area Total Source:GROS, 2008

Total Population 104,720 89,220 584,240 80,780 325,520 169,800 310,090 90,940 1,755,310

Housing Stock 3.3 The housing stock data does not just provide a base for the stock projections. It is also a source for household estimates, which a) are used to calibrate the household projections (see Section 5), and b) provide a base for the tenure projections undertaken by Tribal/Optimal Economics (see Section 6) 3.4

The Council Tax Register, as the most reliable, up-to-date source, is used to derive a count of the total stock. However, it is not a reliable source for sub-dividing the stock by tenure, and information on social rented stock is provided directly by the Scottish Government and the eight local authorities in the GCV area.

3.5

Landlord Registration data is used to estimate the size of the private rented stock in each LA. In Glasgow, use is also made of ownership data relating to the Council Tax Register that has been collected over a number of years. Cross checking of these two sources provides a more accurate count of private rented stock in Glasgow, the LA in which the private rental market plays a particularly significant and increasing role. Owner-occupied stock in each LA is then estimated by subtracting all the rented stock (public and private) from the total stock count.

3.6

The stock information relates to 31 March 2008, but this has been rolled forward to 30 June to ensure consistency with the population base date. The stock at 30 June 2008 is shown in Table 3.2.

Households 3.7 Households are derived from total stock by subtracting vacant and other non-effective stock and adding an allowance for sharing households. The calculations are shown in Table 3.2. 3.8

As with total stock, the Scottish Government and the local authorities provide information on vacancies in the social rented sector. The Post Census Vacant Property Survey (PCVPS) is the only source of information on vacancies in the private sector, although there is no split between private rented and owner-occupied. A private rented vacancy rate of 5% is assumed for each local authority, with the remaining vacancies identified in the PCVPS allocated to the owner-occupied sector. Vacancy rates in the owner occupied sector have been updated to 2008 by applying a notional 1% vacancy rate (relating to stock turnover) to the increase in stock since the 2001 Census.

3.9

The vacancy definition is Census-based and relates to vacancy at a point in time. This definition therefore encompasses very short-term vacancies associated with stock turnover, as well as the longer-term vacancies found particularly in difficult-to-let stock in the social rented sector. Overall, nearly 3% of the total stock in the GCV area is estimated to be vacant in 2008.

3.10

Other non-effective stock comprises second homes and holiday homes. The source we have used is the 2001 Census and these figures have been used directly in the 2008 calculations. Overall, these elements of non-effective stock are relatively insignificant, accounting for less than 0.2% of the total stock.

3.11

The final stage in deriving a stock-based household estimate is to add an allowance for those households that are currently sharing and are therefore â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;hiddenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; in the stock count. The only source is the Census and sharing is measured by the difference between the number of household spaces in shared dwellings and the number of shared dwellings. This allowance has always been insignificant outwith the private rented sector in Glasgow, but even there the 2001 Census identified a very low figure.

Household Types 3.12 The household projections are based on a sub-division by household type. The position at 2008 is established by applying potential headship rate data for 2008 to the 2008 population (see Section 5). The results of this initial exercise are then adjusted to ensure that household totals equal the stock-based household estimates for 2008. Geography 3.13 Population and Household projections are carried out at LA level. In order to progress the new HNDA methodology it was also necessary to disaggregate the results to LA sub area level. These are the 31 areas identified by local authorities representing local housing areas for which an assessment of housing need is required, and which also nest within the private sector sub market areas. More detail on LA sub-areas can be found in TA01 Housing Market Areas.

Table 3.2 - Estimates of Stock, Vacancies and Households, 30 June 2008

Total Stock Tenure East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire

Glasgow City

Inverclyde

North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire

South Lanarkshire

West Dunbartonshire

GCV Total

Non-effective stock

Sharing

Households

vacant (-)

other (-)

allowance (+)

(=)

Vacancy Rate (%)

Council Housing Association Private Rented Owner-occupied Total Council Housing Association Private Rented Owner-occupied Total Council (now GHA) Housing Association Private Rented Owner-occupied Total Council Housing Association Private Rented Owner-occupied Total

3,845 1,592 1,320 37,277 44,034 3,113 1,034 1,248 31,352 36,747 69,079 44,235 34,687 147,949 295,950 0 11,469 2,213 25,652 39,334

64 78 66 394 602 94 8 62 482 646 5,812 846 1,734 2,138 10,530 0 1,426 111 437 1,974

0 0 8 198 206 0 0 12 101 113 248 3 273 721 1,245 0 0 27 216 243

0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 16 331 6 358 0 7 28 4 39

3,781 1,514 1,247 36,685 43,227 3,019 1,026 1,174 30,769 35,988 63,024 43,402 33,011 145,096 284,533 0 10,050 2,103 25,003 37,156

1.7 4.9 5.0 1.1 1.4 3.0 0.8 5.0 1.5 1.8 8.4 1.9 5.0 1.4 3.6 0.0 12.4 5.0 1.7 5.0

Council Housing Association Private Rented Owner-occupied Total Council Housing Association Private Rented Owner-occupied Total

37,720 8,270 5,283 95,190 146,463 13,893 7,243 4,338 56,793 82,267

621 103 264 1,465 2,453 1,261 148 217 1,318 2,944

0 0 15 283 298 0 0 31 274 305

2 1 0 0 3 0 3 14 2 19

37,101 8,168 5,004 93,442 143,715 12,632 7,098 4,104 55,203 79,037

1.6 1.2 5.0 1.5 1.7 9.1 2.0 5.0 2.3 3.6

Council Housing Association Private Rented Owner-occupied Total Council Housing Association Private Rented Owner-occupied Total

25,899 5,514 5,801 104,404 141,618 11,626 5,582 1,275 25,631 44,114

589 75 290 1,860 2,814 644 192 64 370 1,270

0 0 52 412 464 0 0 8 144 152

2 3 6 3 14 4 1 0 2 7

25,312 5,442 5,465 102,135 138,354 10,986 5,391 1,203 25,119 42,699

2.3 1.4 5.0 1.8 2.0 5.5 3.4 5.0 1.4 2.9

Council Housing Association Private Rented Owner-occupied Total

165,175 84,939 56,165 524,248 830,527

9,085 2,876 2,808 8,464 23,233

248 3 426 2,349 3,026

13 31 380 17 441

155,855 82,091 53,311 513,452 804,709

5.5 3.4 5.0 1.6 2.8

Existing Need 4.0

Backlog Need

4.1

The HNDA Guidance requires an assessment of existing (current) need i.e. Backlog Need. ‘Partnerships need a good understanding of the scale of current housing need, including any backlog, at the housing market area level’ (HNDA, 2008, Section 6). An assessment of Backlog Need was undertaken by local authorities at LA sub area and LA level and the methodology for this assessment is detailed in TA04 Gross Current/Backlog Need. As part of the assessment of Backlog Need, partnerships have to assess how many households in need can afford to meet their need in the market. Tribal/Optimal Economics were asked to apply an affordability test on the households in Backlog Need and subsequently decided to assess a household’s ability to pay for private renting and Low Cost Home Ownership (LCHO) to help identify those who could/could not afford to meet their own needs in the market. Upper estimates of backlog need have been reached when households who can afford private market renting have been deducted and lower estimates of Backlog Need have been reached when the number of households who can afford LCHO have been deducted from the gross backlog need figures

4.2

The total Gross Backlog Need identified is 72,837 across the GCV area ref Table 4.1. Tribal/Optimal Economics then assessed how many of these households could meet their own need in the market, the outcome of which is shown in Table 4.2. This assessment provides a set of results identifying the proportion of Backlog Need that could be met in the private sector and the remainder which has to be met in the affordable sector. The HMPCG agreed that the upper estimate of Backlog Need (i.e. fewer people in Backlog Need could meet their needs in the market) should be applied, therefore 66,674 households in Backlog Need would be added to the Affordable sector housing need and 6,163 would be added to the Private sector housing demand over a period of ten years as recommended in the HNDA guidance (2009-2019).

4.3

Backlog Need as a proportion of households at 2009 ranges from 6% in North Lanarkshire (9,041 household) to 11% in Inverclyde (4,117 households) and West Dunbartonshire (4,517 households). The average proportion of Backlog Need across the GCV area households is 9%.

4.4

There was some discussion within the HMPCG regarding the potential for double counting between the household projections and Backlog Need. CHMA advised that Backlog Need should be added to the household projections. For the purposes of this exercise Backlog Need has been considered over and above the household projections.

Table 4.1: Total Current Need

Local Authority

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Council Inverclyde Council North Lanarkshire Council Renfrewshire Council South Lanarkshire Council West Dunbartonshire Council 2 Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDPA

Homeless and in temporary accomm 455 92 3,900 243 682 210 1,351 252 7,185

Insecure Tenure

1,735 820 2,827 5,382

Concealed Households

Overcrowding

Support Needs

Poor Quality

Harassment

1,490 267 7,275 838 4,514 2,401 6,727 369 23,881

833 990 617 1,653 253 1,476 342 2,450 8,614

712 1,259 1,189 455 564 414 1,449 1,425 7,467

577 310 6,494 925 540 644 493 9 9,992

7 59 22 3 12 103

Other Categori es

Total Current Need

8,894 3 731 360 225

4,074 2,918 28,428 4,117 9,041 6,325 13,417 4,517 72,837

10,213

Notes 1: The total has already been adjusted by the authorities to remove existing social renters, and households that can adopt in-situ solutions, so this is not a true â&#x20AC;&#x153;grossâ&#x20AC;? current need figure. 2: * Total not identical to HSMA total due to rounding Source: GCVSDPA Housing Affordability Study, Tribal/Optimal Economics October 2010 1

Table 4.2: Current housing need: total need and excluding those able to address needs in the market/intermediate , LA level Local Authority

Total backlog

4,074 2,918 28,428 4,117 9,041 6,325 13,417 4,517 72,837 * Total not identical to HSMA total due to rounding

Homeless and temporary accomm

455 92 3,900 243 682 210 1,351 252 7,185

Other groups - unable afford own arrangements (upper)

Other groups - unable afford own arrangements (lower)

3,257 2,543 24,528 3,293 6,269 5,504 10,256 3,839 59,489

2,714 2,120 22,075 2,518 5,015 4,586 9,050 2,772 50,850

Total - Unable to make their own arrangements (upper)

No. 3,712 2,635 28,428 3,536 6,951 5,714 11,607 4,091 66,674

% variation from the backlog -9% -10% 0% -14% -23% -10% -13% -9% -8%

Total - Unable to make their own arrangements - max (lower)

No. 3,169 2,212 25,975 2,761 5,697 4,796 10,401 3,024 58,035

% variation from the backlog -22% -24% -9% -33% -37% -24% -22% -33% -20%

Total able to afford their own accommodation

Lower (market housing) 362 283 0 581 2,090 612 1,810 427 6,163

Upper (intermediate housing) 905 707 2,453 1,356 3,344 1,529 3,017 1,493 14,802

Note 1: Upper estimates of those in the backlog (and corresponding lower estimates of those able to afford to meet their needs in themselves) are reached when we consider whether households can afford market (PRS) accommodation. The lower estimates of those in the backlog (and corresponding higher estimates of those able to afford to meet their needs in themselves) are reached when we consider whether households can afford Intermediate (LIFT) accommodation. Source: GCVSDPA Housing Affordability Study, Tribal/Optimal Economics October 2010

Future Need/Demand 5.0

Projections of Population and Households – Description of Assumptions and Results

Introduction 5.1

This Section reviews recent migration trends for the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley (GCV) area, describes the migration assumptions used in the HNDA projections, and reports on the population and household projection results. The migration assumptions take into account (1) the latest view from the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) on the demographic prospects for Scotland, as reflected in the population projections for Scotland (2008-base) published on 21st October 2009, and (2) an assessment of the economic prospects for the GCV area from Oxford Economics in their report “The strategic and economic implications of the recession for Scotland” of May 2009.

5.2

Two migration scenarios have been defined: • The lower migration scenario, or scenario A, which is an update of the migration assumptions incorporated in the 2006-base principal projections of the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS); • The planning scenario, or scenario C, which is an update of the migration assumptions incorporated in the 2004-base projections for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley 2006 Structure Plan Alteration (2006 Plan).

5.3

The HNDA projections have been prepared in November 2009. Since then the GROS sub-national population and household projections have been published on 3 February 2010 and 20 May 2010 respectively. The comparisons with GROS projection results given in this paper are with these latest projections. It should be noted that these GROS projections were not available when the HNDA projections were prepared. Also the more detailed assessment by Oxford Economics (report Economic outlook and scenarios for the Glasgow and Clyde valley region, April 2010) has not been incorporated in the present HNDA projections.

5.4

Tables A1 to A17 can be found in the Annex A of this paper. There can be small differences in the figures from the various Tables due to rounding.

5.5

Paragraph 5.10 comments on the new GROS fertility and mortality assumptions, as compared with the assumptions in the 2006-base projections.

5.6

Paragraphs 5.11 to 5.27 and Tables A1 to A5 in the Annex A describe how the migration assumptions have been derived, based on recent migration data, and taking into account the latest projection assumptions for Scotland from the GROS. The migration assumptions for the two HNDA scenarios (lower migration and planning) are compared with the migration assumptions used for the 2006 Plan projections (see Annex A, Table A6).

5.7

Paragraphs 5.28 to 5.31 gives the key results of the population projections for the above two scenarios. For comparison purposes, the results are also given for the GROS 2008-base projections and for the 2004-base projections from the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Structure Plan Alteration 2006 (2006 Plan). The latter projection is only for the period to 2018, which limits its’ comparability with the current projections. The Annex A gives further detail on the projection results in Tables A7 to A9.

5.8

Paragraphs 5.32 to 5.43 gives the key results of the household projections for the above two scenarios. With regard to household formation assumptions, the GROS approach has been applied to the population projection results of the lower migration scenario. GROS have based their projected headship rates on household formation trends in the period 1991 to 2001 (the two Census years). There is some evidence that there has been a change in the rate of household formation since 2001, especially for Glasgow City (see Annex A Table A10). For the planning scenario, the projected headship rates have been calibrated so that they reflect household formation trends in the period 1991 to 2008. More detailed household projection results are given in Tables A11 and A12. Table A13 gives the disaggregated household projection results for the 31 Local Authority sub areas.

5.9

Paragraphs 5.44 to 5.51 describe the methodology (see Annex A Table A14) and the results of the calculation of new households and in-migrant households by Council area (Table A15). These new and in-migrant households have also been disaggregated to the 31 Local Authority sub areas (Tables A16 and A17).

Fertility and Mortality Rates 5.10

For the HNDA projections the new fertility and mortality rate assumptions from the 2008-base GROS projections have been used. GROS has increased the assumed long-term average completed family size from 1.65 in the 2006-base projection to 1.70 in the 2008-base projection. This has resulted in a higher projected number of births. The mortality rates from the latest GROS projections are only slightly below those of the 2006-base projections.

Migration Assumptions HNDA Projections Review of Recent Migration 5.11 Table A1 (see Annex A) and Chart 1 show the clear improvement in the migration position for the GCV area over the last 27 years, 1981 – 2008. The trend shown in Chart 1 implies an annual improvement in net migration of 821, with positive net migration values in 2000/01 and from 2002 onwards. 5.12

Table A1 also contains data for Argyll and Bute, so that migration data can be analysed for the combination of the three (former) Health Board areas Argyll and Clyde, Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire. The data for Argyll and Bute show no clear rate of change, with net migration at, on average, around +200 per year.

5.13

GROS has published, for Health Board areas, Tables with a breakdown of migration by component for the same period, 1981 – 2008. In Table A2.1 the net migration for the combination of three (former) Health Board areas is split by “net migration within UK” and “net international migration”. The latter is estimated by subtraction of “net migration within UK” from “total migration”. This estimate includes some overall migration adjustments, which are not necessarily international migration.

5.14

Table A2.2 gives the trend coefficients, or rate of annual change in migration, for each of the components and for the two base periods 1981-2008 and 1991-2008. The total annual improvement of 818, estimated for base period 1981-2008, is made up of an annual improvement of 488 for “migration within UK” and 330 for “international migration”. Data for the more recent period 1991-2008 suggests that there has been a slowdown in the rate of improvement for “migration within UK” (to 279 per year). Care has to be taken with the interpretation of the increase in the rate of improvement for international migration (to 631 per year), as this has been affected by the Asylum seeker contract for Glasgow City and the recent surge in migrants from EU Accession Countries. It is clear that the shorter the base period, the larger the impact of these factors on the trend coefficients. Chart 2 shows the trend values of “migration within UK” for both the 1981-2008 and the 1991-2008 base periods.

GROS 2006-base projections 5.15 As stated in the Introduction, the lower migration scenario is an update of the migration assumptions incorporated in the 2006-base GROS principal projections. 5.16

In response to recent high in-migration into Scotland, GROS assumed a higher net inflow than in the 2004-base projection. GROS also assumed that future migration levels would be below current levels, as recent sizable inflows from EU Accession countries were unlikely to be sustained in the longer term. The move towards a lower net migration level was assumed to be gradual. Therefore the GROS projection included higher, but gradually reducing, net inflows in the first six years of the projection, i.e. till 2012. Beyond 2012, GROS assumed a constant level of migration.

5.17

Generally net migration assumptions by Council area in the GROS projections were based on net migration levels in the previous five years, i.e. 2001-06. For Glasgow City the migration assumption was based on recent net migration excluding asylum seekers, but with an asylum seeker adjustment of +600 per year in the long term migration figure for Glasgow City.

5.18

To reflect the uncertainty over future levels of net inflows, GROS included a high migration variant projection, which assumed a smaller reduction in the long term migration position, as compared with recent migration levels. The planning scenario uses the GROS high migration variant assumptions as a base for the initial years.

Net Migration for Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area as a whole 5.19 The first step in the preparation of the migration assumptions was to assess the likely level of net migration for the GCV area as a whole. Table A3.1 in the Annex A contains the average net migration for Scotland (excluding asylum seekers), split by (1) Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area (GCV area) and (2) Rest of Scotland (R of S), for the two five-year periods 2001-06 and 2003-08. 5.20

GROS had published the net migration assumption by area (GCV area and Rest of Scotland) for the 2006-base projection. At the time when the HNDA migration assumptions were prepared, the GROS 2008-base projection was available at a Scotland level only. Therefore the split by area has been estimated in Table A3.2 (see Annex A) using the split in the 2006-base projection, resulting in an annual net migration assumption of -1,050 for the lower migration scenario (rounded value of 1,056 in Table). The planning scenario reflects the GROS high migration variant assumptions for the initial years, which give a net annual migration of +1,050 (rounded value of 1,044 in Table).

Technical Detail. For the 2006-base projection, the downward adjustment (see row “difference” in Table A3.2) in the migration assumption was -3,865 as compared with the annual migration in the previous 5 years (2001-06). Almost a quarter of this adjustment (-905) was allocated to the GCV area. For the 2008-base projection, the downward adjustment in the migration assumption is -9,553 as compared with the migration in the previous 5 years (200308). Allocation of the same proportion gives an adjustment of -2,237 for the GCV area, which results in a long term migration of approximately -1,050. The latter value includes an asylum seekers adjustment of 600 to Glasgow’s net migration position (which has also been applied by GROS in the 2006-base projections). Migration levels for the high migration variant are 8,500 above migration levels for the principal projection in both the 2006-base and the 2008base projection of the GROS. Therefore the difference in migration for the GCV area in the 2006-base projection (2,100 = 150 – (-1,950)) has also been applied in the 2008-base projection. This gives an annual migration of 1,050 (= -1,050 + 2,100). 5.21

The move towards a lower net migration level was assumed to be gradual. Therefore the GROS projection included higher, but gradually reducing, net inflows in the first six years of the projection, i.e. until 2012 for the 2006-base and till 2014 for the 2008-base projection. Beyond 2012 or 2014, GROS assumed a constant level of net-migration.

5.22

As stated in the Introduction, the planning scenario is an update of the migration assumptions incorporated in the 2004-base projections for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley 2006 Structure Plan Alteration (2006 Plan). As has been mentioned already, the migration assumption for the planning scenario takes a base migration position that reflects the GROS high migration variant assumption, and assumes a continuation of the improvement in migration position seen in recent decades. However, the assessment done by Oxford Economics suggests that this improvement in migration is likely to be delayed, possibly by ten years. Also, it has been assumed that the rate of increase will be lower than in the past when the net migration resumes its rise in 2018/19. The projected rate of improvement is 279 per year, which is the trend coefficient for “within UK migration” estimated from the 1991-2008 period. The lower rate of improvement reflects the area’s positive net migration position since 2002 and the prospect that recent high migration levels for international migration are unlikely to continue in the longer term.

Net Migration by Council area 5.23 The second step in the preparation of the migration assumptions was to derive net migration assumptions by Council area (see Annex A Table A4). Fundamentally, under the lower migration scenario, the projected net migration for each Council area is based on the average net migration over the previous ten years (1998-2008), with the difference in GCV migration (549 = -1,050 + 1,599) allocated to Council areas based on population levels at 2008. 5.24

For Glasgow City the migration assumption has been based on net migration excluding asylum seekers in 1998-2008, but with an asylum seeker adjustment of +600 per year in the long term migration figure for Glasgow City (-931 = -1,531 + 600).

5.25

As stated above, the migration assumption for the planning scenario reflects, for the initial years, the updated net migration position of the GROS high migration variant. At a Council level, the net migration assumed is calculated by taking the difference between the longer term migration assumptions for the high migration variant and for the principal projection (from the GROS 2006-base projection) and adding this to the migration assumptions for the lower migration variant. From 2018/19 onwards, a continuation of the improvement in migration position at a rate of 279 per year has been assumed, which has been allocated to Council areas based on their population share (see Annex A Table A5).

Migration adjustments for initial years 2008-12 5.26 The GROS has assumed, in itsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; 2006-base projections, that there will be higher net inflows in the short term, i.e. in the years up to 2012. These short term adjustments, which the GROS has applied to their long term migration assumption, have also been applied to the migration assumptions for the lower migration scenario. This gives the proposed net migration by Council area, after adjustment for initial years (see Annex A Table A5). Comparison with Migration Assumptions 2006 Plan 5.27 A comparison of the migration assumptions for the lower migration and planning scenarios with the migration assumptions used in the 2006 Plan for the ten-year period 2008-2018, is given in Annex A Table A6. This shows that, for the GCV area, the annual average migration for the lower migration scenario is over 2,000 below the migration average for the 2006 Plan. The annual average migration for the planning scenario is more than 500 below the migration average for the 2006 Plan. Population Projection Results 5.28

In terms of population change, Table 5.1 shows that the range of outcomes from HNDA scenarios (23,000 to 67,000 more population) is somewhat higher than the range of outcomes from the GROS projections (17,000 to 52,000 more population).

5.29

The results for the lower migration scenario compare with the GROS principal projection and the results for the planning scenario compare with the GROS high migration variant. As stated before, the comparisons are given with the latest GROS projections (2008-base), which were not available when the HNDA projections were prepared.

Table 5.1 - Population Change population 2008 lower migration (A) 1,755,310 planning scenario (C) 1,755,310 GROS - Low Migration 1,755,310 GROS - Principal 1,755,310 GROS - High Migration 1,755,310

population 2025 1,778,181 1,822,048 1,719,932 1,772,696 1,807,804

change annual annual annual 2008-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 22,871 1,798 1,397 581 66,738 3,347 4,108 4,706 -35,378 -1,119 -2,224 -3,505 17,386 1,838 890 -176 52,494 3,558 3,187 2,257

More detailed projection results are given in the Annex A, Tables A7 to A9. 5.30

Natural change is responsible for a sizeable population increase in all projections shown in Table 5.2. These figures are higher than the projected natural change in the 2006-Plan projections (see Annex A Table A8.3). The latter projection (2004-base) did not incorporate the positive changes in fertility rates and in mortality improvement rates from the 2006-base and 2008-base GROS projections.

Table 5.2 - Annual Population Change by Component due to natural change due to net migration 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 lower migration (A) 2,178 2,451 1,629 -380 -1,054 -1,048 planning scenario (C) 2,299 2,846 2,258 1,048 1,262 2,448 GROS - Low Migration 1,843 1,476 195 -2,963 -3,700 -3,700 GROS - Principal 2,120 2,190 1,124 -281 -1,300 -1,300 GROS - High Migration 2,251 2,587 1,657 1,306 600 600

5.31

Table 5.3 shows that population ageing will result in large increases for the population age 60+ and in likely reductions for the population age 16 to 59.

Table 5.3 - Annual Population Change by Age age 16-59 2008-2016 2016-2020 lower migration (A) -2,231 -7,352 planning scenario (C) -1,009 -5,447 GROS - Low Migration -4,292 -9,647 GROS - Principal -2,074 -7,647 GROS - High Migration -743 -6,057

age 60+ 2020-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 -7,394 4,479 7,855 9,135 -4,579 4,553 8,018 9,414 -9,741 4,215 7,569 8,781 -7,734 4,353 7,748 9,034 -6,133 4,434 7,875 9,187

Household Projection Results GROS household formation assumptions and recent household change 5.32 For their household projections, GROS uses projected headship rates based on household formation between 1991 and 2001, the two Census years. A comparison of the actual stock-based estimates of households for 2001 and 2008 with the change that would have occurred if the projected headship rates for 2008 had proved to be accurate, shows that the estimated change, at 34,312 for the GCV area, was 3,178 lower than the projected change, at 37,490 (see Table 5.4 below). This shortfall was entirely due to a lower than projected household growth for Glasgow City: an estimated change of 8,771, compared with a projected change of 18,198. For the other 7 Council areas the estimated change has been higher than the projected change. Table 5.4 - Households - Comparison of estimated and projected change 2001-2008

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley

5.33

proj change 2001-2008 based on headship rates 316 593 18,198 78 7,840 1,390 8,461 615 37,490

stock-based estimated change 2001-2008 812 752 8,771 95 9,399 2,230 11,110 1,143 34,312

estim change minus proj change 2001-2008 496 159 -9,427 17 1,559 840 2,649 528 -3,178

An examination of household changes over the same period 2001-2008, using data from the Scottish Household Survey (SHS), indicates a virtually constant average household size (at 2.09) for Glasgow City over that period, compared with a projected reduction in the average household size from 2.05 in 2001 to 1.94 in 2008, based on GROS projected headship rates. For the Rest of the GCV area, SHS data indicates a reduction in average household size (from 2.40 in 2001 to 2.29 in 2008), which corresponds more closely to the projected reduction (from 2.35 in 2001 to 2.26 in 2008). The above raises questions about the validity of using the GROS projected headship rates, based on 1991-2001 data, for the HNDA household projections. However, it is uncertain whether the changes found in 2001-2008 reflect a permanent change in household formation trends or a temporary difference due to e.g. higher house prices in 2001-2008.

Adjustment to household formation assumptions for planning scenario 5.34 Given that the purpose of the lower migration scenario is to anticipate the GROS 2008base projections, it has been decided to apply the GROS household projection methodology to this option without any adjustment. Implicitly it has been assumed that, following the recent (2001-2008) changes, household formation will get back on track with the trends seen in the 1990s. 5.35

For the planning scenario, a different approach has been chosen to address the above issues. Future household formation trends have been based on household formation in the 1991-2008 period, rather than 1991-2001, as currently used for GROS projected headship rates. This did not involve a recalculation of all of GROS headship rates. Instead, a series of calibration factors have been applied to the initial projections of total households based on these headship rates.

5.36

The advantage of applying the above adjustments to the household formation assumptions of the planning scenario, is, that use is made of the most up-to-date information in a consistent way for all Council areas. By taking 1991-2008 as a base period there is less room for criticism that a particular set of circumstances, i.e. household formation under higher house prices in 2001-2008, is projected into the future.

5.37

For this projection the projected households by type from the GROS headship rates have been calibrated to the projected total number of households. In view of the changes in household formation that have taken place in 2001-2008, these projections by household type have to be used with caution and interpreted in the light of the differences as presented in Table A10 (see Annex A).

Household Projection Results 5.38 In terms of household change, Table 5.5 shows that the range of outcomes from the HNDA lower migration and planning scenarios (96,000 to 114,000 more households) is higher than the range of outcomes from the GROS principal and higher migration variant projections (88,000 to 104,000 more households). The difference between the two ranges is greater than one would expect, given the similarity of results for the HNDA and GROS population projections. One reason may be the use, in the HNDA projections, of 2006 values for the proportions of people living in Communal Establishments. GROS have updated these proportions in their 2008-base projections. Another reason is that GROS constrain the results for individual Council areas to a Scotland-wide total, which has reduced projected household figures for Council areas in the GCV area. 5.39

The household projections for the GCV Structure Plan Alteration 2006 showed a relatively high rate of annual household growth: 7,611 per year in 2008-2016 (see Annex A Table A11). This higher rate of growth is partly due to the use of a different set of projected headship rates (derived from 1991 and 2001 Census data for a different breakdown of household types).

Table 5.5 - Household Change households households 2008 2025 lower migration (A) 804,708 901,052 planning scenario (C) 804,708 918,408 GROS - Low Migration 795,410 860,130 GROS - Principal 795,410 882,980 GROS - High Migration 795,410 899,728

change annual annual annual 2008-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 96,344 6,276 5,495 4,830 113,700 6,805 6,576 6,591 64,720 4,614 3,735 2,574 87,570 5,810 5,160 4,090 104,318 6,584 6,287 5,300

5.40

Population ageing will result in large increases in the number of households “headed” by a person age 60+ and in very limited growth or reductions in the number of households “headed” by a younger person (see Table 5.6).

Table 5.6 - Annual Household Change by Age of Household Representative age 16-59 age 60+ 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 lower migration (A) 3,438 438 -1,269 2,838 5,057 6,100 planning scenario (C) 3,922 1,409 306 2,882 5,168 6,285 GROS - Low Migration 2,185 -1,035 -2,928 2,429 4,770 5,502 GROS - Principal 3,321 275 -1,566 2,489 4,885 5,656 GROS - High Migration 4,057 1,318 -462 2,527 4,969 5,761

5.41

More detail on the household projection results is given in the Annex A, Tables A11 and A12.

Projected Households by LA sub area 5.42 The projected change in households by Council area has been allocated to the Local Authority sub areas, using a pro-rata allocation method based on number of households in 2008. Consideration has been given to the use of a method based on recent change in the number of households. However, particularly for smaller areas, recent change could have been influenced by a disproportionately higher or lower level of housing completions or demolitions, which do not necessarily provide a fair reflection of demand in that area. Therefore it has been decided to use a pro-rata allocation method, based on the total number of households in 2008. 5.43

Tables A13.1 and A13.2 (see Annex A) give the projected number of households, both for the planning scenario and for the lower migration scenario.

Calculation of New Households and Household Terminations New Households and Household Terminations by Council area 5.44 Household projections are obtained by applying headship rates to future populations. These population levels are the result of flows, i.e. births, deaths, in- and out-migration, in the preceding periods. Therefore, headship rates have been applied to these population flows. Table A14 in the Annex A specifies the detailed calculations involved and Tables A15.1 and A15.2 give the results for the 8 Council areas for the first year (2008/09) and the last year (2024/25) of the projection period. 5.45

In general, there is a greater propensity to form households as the population ages, leading to new households. New households are also formed through population inflows and through greater household formation (i.e. higher headship rates lead to more households for the same population). Household terminations take place as a result of deaths and out migration.

5.46

Headship rates have been applied to all population flows and not just to population in households. This necessitates an adjustment for population in Communal Establishments.

5.47

New households can also be broken down by age-group, as is clear from the detailed calculations given in Table A14.

5.48

The results (see Table A15) show some different patterns by Council area. The ageing of the population is expected to have an increasing impact on new households for East Renfrewshire (for planning scenario: from 771 in 2008/09 to 904 in 2024/25) and a decreasing impact on new households for Glasgow City (from 7,974 in 2008/09 to 6,707 in 2024/25) and for Inverclyde (from 871 in 2008/09 to 745 in 2024/25). Household terminations due to death are projected to increase for East Dunbartonshire (from 688 in 2008/09 to 762 in 2024/25) and to decrease for Glasgow City (from 5,246 in 2008/09 to 4,308 in 2024/25).

Some Observations on this Methodology to calculate New Households 5.49 This is the first time that new households and household terminations have been derived from the household projections for strategic planning in the GCV area. As part of the above methodology, the following assumptions have been made: a. The methodology used assumes that headship rates for migrants are the same as for the resident population. There have been indications that, for some types of migrants, household sizes are larger. This has not been taken account of in the results. b. Migrant moves lead to a new household for in migrants and to a household termination for out migrants. Moves have been recognised as a migrant move, when and only when this involves a move across a Council area boundary. This implies that moves within a Council area do not result in a new household for Local Authority sub areas, when, in fact, the move would result in a new household for the Local Authority sub area. New and In-Migrant Households by Local Authority sub area 5.50 The allocation of new and in-migrant households by Council area to Local Authority sub areas has been done using the same pro-rata method, as applied in the disaggregation of projected households by Local Authority sub areas. Tables A16 and A17 give the projected new households and in-migrant households by age band for the Local Authority sub areas for the first year (2008/09) and the last year (2024/25) of the projection period.

6.0

Household Tenure Projections to 2016, 2020 and 2025 Introduction As mentioned in Section 2 the previous Structure Plan tenuring methodology has been replaced by an Affordability Study undertaken by Tribal/Optimal Economics. Results are presented in Tables 6.1-6.4 for local authority areas. Detailed results for all tenures are presented in Tribal/Optimal Economics report TA05, however, for the purposes of the comparison of supply and demand two tenure categories are required, the private and social rented sectors. Owner occupied and private rented sectors are combined to present the private sector.

6.1

High and Low Affordability Scenarios Two affordability scenarios have been applied to the household tenure projections Low and High Affordability (as detailed in 2.7). The high affordability scenario assumes a willingness to spend a higher proportion of income on private rent, which results in a larger private sector, and low affordability assumes that households will only spend a lower proportion of their income on private rent. This results in a smaller private rented sector and a correspondingly larger social rented sector.

6.2

Household Tenure Projection Summary Overall the GCV area is seeing a projected increase in households under the Planning scenario from 805,000 at the 2008 base date to 918,000 in 2025, an increase of 113,000 households over the projection period. A summary of the household tenure projection results is given below for both affordability scenarios.

6.3

• •

•

6.4

Private Sector Planning scenario (C2) high affordability: the private sector increases from 567,000 households in 2008 to 684,000 in 2025, an increase of 117,000 households. Planning scenario (C2) low affordability: the private sector increases from 567,000 households in 2008 to 658,000 in 2025, an increase of 92,000 households. Affordable Sector Planning scenario (C2) high affordability: social rented sector households decrease from 238,000 households in 2008 to 235,000 in 2025, a decrease of around 3,000 households with some fluctuation in the intervening years. This shows a slowing decline in the social rented sector, and indicates that the sector is stabalising. Planning scenario (C2) low affordability social rented sector households increase from 238,000 households in 2008 to 260,000 in 2025, an increase of 22,000 households. This results in a corresponding lower increase in private sector households for the low affordability scenario. Although both sets of results are presented, for the purposes of this working draft, the private sector from this point on adopts planning scenario (C2) high affordability and the social rented sector planning scenario (C2) low affordability (ref Sections 8 and 9). This means that, if Tribal/Optimal Economics’ figures on outflows and terminations are used, then the total private sector demand and social rented sector need would exceed the overall number of households from the household projections.

Table 6.5 Summary of Household Projections for GCV Area 2008-25 2008 All Households 805,000 Private Sector Private sector C2 High 567,000 Private sector C2 Low 567,000 Affordable (Social Rented) Sector Social rented sector C2 High 238,000 Social rented sector C2 Low 238,000 * figures may not total due to rounding 6.5

6.6

2025 918,000

2008-2025 Change +113,000

684,000 658,000

+117,000 +92,000

235,000 260,000

- 3,000 +22,000

Stage 1 and Stage 2 Results As mentioned in 2.6 Tribal/Optimal Economics undertook their tenure split of household projections in two stages. Stage 1 models tenure choice for new and inmigrant households. This is required for the affordable sector in line with the HNDA Guidance to compare with re-lets information (ref tables 6.1 and 6.2). Stage 1 results are used as the input to the Housing Needs Assessment model explained in Section 9 Section Aii (para 9.11-9.12). Stage 2 models inter-tenure flows and the tenure split of household terminations. This results in a projected tenure split for the total number of households, which is required for the private sector giving a projection of total future households by inflows and outflows (ref tables 6.3 and 6.4). The outflows from the private sector to the affordable sector have also been included in housing needs proformas in line with HNDA guidance (ref table 6.3 and 6.4). Stage 2 results are used as the input to the Private Sector Supply/Demand comparison in Section 8 and also to the Affordable sector All Stock/All Households Supply/Need comparison in Section 9 Section Ai (para 9.3-9.10).

TABLE 6.1 PROJECTION C2 (HIGH AFFORDABILITY) TRIBAL STAGE 1: PROJECTED INFLOWS INTO SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR 2008-16

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV Total

New Households

In-Migrant Households

InterTenure Moves from Private Rented

1,574 972 21,969 2,127 6,054 2,991 5,554 2,582 43,823

400 248 7,989 802 2,870 1,206 2,352 1,821 17,688

541 450 13,940 966 5,291 1,935 3,482 839 27,443

2016-20 InterTenure Moves from OwnerOccupied

Total Inflows

New Households

588 501 12,574 402 1,559 895 1,686 404 18,609

3,103 2,171 56,471 4,297 15,774 7,027 13,074 5,646 107,563

794 519 10,064 984 2,990 1,452 2,819 1,263 20,884

2020-25

In-Migrant Households

InterTenure Moves from Private Rented

InterTenure Moves from OwnerOccupied

Total Inflows

New Households

206 124 4,201 418 1,500 627 1,222 946 9,245

290 224 7,218 522 3,104 1,079 2,084 544 15,065

297 259 7,045 204 842 462 898 208 10,216

1,587 1,126 28,529 2,127 8,437 3,620 7,024 2,961 55,410

1,017 674 12,005 1,175 3,776 1,783 3,558 1,526 25,514

In-Migrant Households

InterTenure Moves from Private Rented

InterTenure Moves from OwnerOccupied

Total Inflows

266 158 5,503 544 1,967 815 1,591 1,231 12,073

369 286 9,171 659 4,043 1,383 2,751 712 19,375

374 334 9,369 256 1,109 591 1,179 268 13,481

2,027 1,452 36,048 2,635 10,895 4,572 9,079 3,736 70,443

InterTenure Moves from OwnerOccupied

Total Inflows

369 329 9,230 251 1,074 573 1,143 260 13,229

2,443 1,769 38,723 3,102 12,502 5,988 11,842 4,337 80,707

TABLE 6.2 PROJECTION C2 (LOW AFFORDABILITY) TRIBAL STAGE 1: PROJECTED INFLOWS INTO SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR 2008-16

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV Total

New Households

In-Migrant Households

InterTenure Moves from Private Rented

2,360 1,631 28,246 3,190 12,107 5,982 11,108 3,873 68,499

400 248 7,989 802 2,870 1,206 2,352 1,821 17,688

459 380 13,258 851 2,461 1,610 2,786 699 22,504

2016-20 InterTenure Moves from OwnerOccupied

Total Inflows

New Households

587 500 12,536 400 1,544 890 1,677 402 18,537

3,807 2,759 62,029 5,244 18,983 9,689 17,922 6,795 127,227

1,191 865 12,939 1,475 5,980 2,904 5,638 1,894 32,887

2020-25

In-Migrant Households

InterTenure Moves from Private Rented

InterTenure Moves from OwnerOccupied

Total Inflows

New Households

In-Migrant Households

InterTenure Moves from Private Rented

206 124 4,201 418 1,500 627 1,222 946 9,245

223 165 6,698 430 1,439 808 1,506 426 11,693

294 257 6,971 201 822 453 880 204 10,082

1,914 1,411 30,809 2,523 9,741 4,792 9,246 3,470 63,907

1,526 1,072 15,435 1,763 7,553 3,565 7,115 2,289 40,318

266 158 5,503 544 1,967 815 1,591 1,231 12,073

282 210 8,555 544 1,909 1,035 1,993 558 15,086

TABLE 6.3 PROJECTION C2 (HIGH AFFORDABILITY) TRIBAL STAGE 2: PROJECTED TENURE SPLIT OF TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS, 2008-25 2008

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV Total

Private Sector Households

Social Rented Sector Households

37,932 31,943 178,107 27,106 98,446 59,307 107,600 26,322 566,763

5,295 4,045 106,426 10,050 45,269 19,730 30,754 16,377 237,946

2016

Total Households

Private Sector Households

Social Rented Sector Households*

43,227 35,988 284,533 37,156 143,715 79,037 138,354 42,699 804,709

38,470 33,241 207,851 27,971 110,946 62,566 118,911 28,438 628,394

6,132 4,547 96,947 9,875 44,859 19,346 32,670 16,370 230,746

2020

Total Households

Private Sector Households

Social Rented Sector Households*

44,602 37,788 304,798 37,846 155,805 81,912 151,581 44,808 859,140

38,730 34,066 219,030 28,187 116,351 63,935 124,338 29,254 653,891

6,521 4,805 95,055 9,868 45,263 19,378 33,995 16,664 231,549

2025

Total Households

Private Sector Households

Social Rented Sector Households*

Total Households

45,251 38,871 314,085 38,055 161,614 83,313 158,333 45,918 885,440

39,167 35,239 231,289 28,374 122,696 65,568 131,193 30,149 683,675

6,972 5,138 94,109 9,857 46,360 19,468 35,722 17,097 234,723

46,139 40,377 325,398 38,231 169,056 85,036 166,915 47,246 918,398

TABLE 6.4 PROJECTION C2 (LOW AFFORDABILITY) TRIBAL STAGE 2: PROJECTED TENURE SPLIT OF TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS, 2008-25 2008

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV Total

Private Sector Households

Social Rented Sector Households

37,932 31,943 178,107 27,106 98,446 59,307 107,600 26,322 566,763

5,295 4,045 106,426 10,050 45,269 19,730 30,754 16,377 237,946

2016

Total Households

Private Sector Households

Social Rented Sector Households*

43,227 35,988 284,533 37,156 143,715 79,037 138,354 42,699 804,709

37,876 32,744 203,756 27,214 108,173 60,348 114,784 27,487 612,382

6,726 5,045 101,043 10,633 47,634 21,563 36,797 17,320 246,761

2020

Total Households

Private Sector Households

Social Rented Sector Households*

44,602 37,789 304,799 37,847 155,807 81,911 151,581 44,807 859,143

37,938 33,389 214,077 27,231 112,729 61,030 118,791 28,000 633,185

7,314 5,483 100,007 10,825 48,886 22,283 39,542 17,918 252,258

2025

Total Households

Private Sector Households

Social Rented Sector Households*

Total Households

45,252 38,872 314,084 38,056 161,615 83,313 158,333 45,918 885,443

38,169 34,410 225,695 27,249 118,182 62,000 124,168 28,609 658,482

7,970 5,966 99,703 10,982 50,875 23,036 42,746 18,635 259,913

46,139 40,376 325,398 38,231 169,057 85,036 166,914 47,244 918,395

* Please note that the Stage 2 social rented sector figures are an input to the All Stock/All Households supply/need model. Stage 1 results are used for the HNA model

7.0

Stock Projections

7.1

Projections of housing stock are required to enable a comparison with projected demand in the private sector and with projected need in the affordable sector. Both sectors will be addressed separately in the following sections.

A - Private Sector Housing Stock Projections to 2020 and 2025 7.2

Projections of private housing stock and vacancies are required to enable the effective housing stock to be compared with projected demand in the private sector. The housing market area system provides the geographical framework for comparing supply and demand and stock projections are required for these areas. Stock projections have been collected on a LA sub-area basis and aggregated to local authority and HMA level (this data has been presented at HMA level for the private sector and LA level for the Affordable sector).

Private Sector Stock Projections 7.3 The most significant component of the increase in private sector stock is the level of new housing completions. For the 2020 projection, this is based on one year actual completions 2008/09, the programmed output from sites in each local authority’s finalised 2009 effective housing land supply (2009-16), and the anticipated output from years 2009-20 of the Urban capacity study. 7.4

For the 2025 projection, possible sources of additional housing are identified in the Urban Capacity Study (see BR 12 Urban Capacity Study 2009). The sources of sites in the urban capacity study include housing sites as well as, for example, vacant and derelict land, industrial and business areas and public sector housing demolition areas. Table 7.1 summarises the data for each housing sub market area.

7.5

Projections of private stock for Housing Market Areas (HMA) and local authorities are shown in Table 7.2. Within the Central Conurbation and Eastern Conurbation HMAs, projected private sector stock is required for each of the Sub Market Areas (SMA) to allow comparisons with estimated local demand.

7.6

In Tables 7.2 and 7.3 the base stock at June 2008 has been reduced by the number of completions between 31 March and 30 June to avoid double counting with the completions data that have a 31 March base date.

7.7

The sale of rented stock to sitting tenants via ‘Right-to Buy’ (RTB) is also significant in terms of the increase in private sector stock. RTB is, however, completely neutral in its effect on the balance between supply and demand because an equal number of households change tenure. Each local authority has provided RTB projections, which show a falling level of sales.

7.8

It cannot be assumed that all stock is available to satisfy housing demand. Effective stock excludes vacant and other non-effective stock such as second homes and holiday homes. Vacant stock at 2020 has been estimated by adding the vacancies that will arise in the new owner-occupied stock to the number of vacancies in 2008. The additional vacancies have been calculated by applying a 1% ‘frictional’ vacancy rate to the increase in stock to allow for the short-term vacancies associated with stock turnover. Other non-effective stock is assumed to remain constant. Therefore, demand is compared with ‘effective’ stock.

B - Affordable Sector Housing Stock Projections to 2016, 2020 and 2025 7.9

Projections of social rented stock at 2016, 2020 and 2025 for local authorities are shown in Table 7.3. The stock projections show the base stock at June 2008, completions 2008/09, land supply from the HLA and UCS, RTB sales, demolitions and also take into account vacancy rates. This sector includes local authority and RSL stock. However, based on currently known data, it is only possible to present a partial assessment of future stock changes in this sector. In particular, the known land supply for social rented housing is closely related to councilâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Strategic Housing Investment Plans (SHIPs) and their relatively short-term nature of the funding horizons. The SHIPs are reviewed annually and generally a confident view of future new building and other investment can only be provided for up to three to four years.

7.10

The programmed completions included in the stock projections, therefore, are limited to: (a) the known sites in the 2009 land supply for the 2009/16 period and (b) potential social rented sector sites identified in the Urban Capacity Study for the longer term period to 2025. These figures do not, therefore, take full account of likely, future new build in the social rented sector. On the other hand, for most of the local authorities, future demolition estimates provide a longer-term view, e.g. the planned demolition of over 16,000 Glasgow Housing Association and RSL properties between 2008 and 2025. Overall therefore, there is likely to be an undercount of projected stock changes for this sector, which should be borne in mind when comparing these estimates against projected households in need.

Table 7.1 Private Sector Housing Land Supply, 2009-2025

HSMA

2009/16 HLA Effective Supply

2009/20 Urban Capacity Study

Private Sector

Owner Occupied

Shared Equity/ Shared Ownership*

27,523

26,361

Greater Glasgow North/West

6,343

Strathkelvin/Springburn

2020/25 Urban Capacity Study

Total

Owner Occupied

Shared Equity/ Shared Ownership*

Total

740

27,101

22,530

374

22,904

4,861

347

5,208

5,861

262

6,123

1,955

2,334

2,378

2,144

2,157

Glasgow East

3,946

4,610

4,693

4,889

4,943

Cumbernauld

1,360

2,467

709

Greater Glasgow South

6,746

5,265

5,331

5,105

Renfrewshire

4,301

5,183

200

5,383

2,980

3,025

East Kilbride

2,872

1,641

842

842 6,808

Central Conurbation

Eastern Conurbation

9,981

9,044

6,808

Airdrie/Coatbridge

2,333

2,332

1,854

Motherwell

2,686

3,843

3,674

Clydesdale

2,265

987

106

Hamilton

2,697

1,882

1,174

Dumbarton/Vale of Leven

1,750

801

185

986

1,059

160

1,219

Inverclyde

1,700

2,042

265

2,307

1,736

285

2,021

Conurbation Total

37,504

35,405

740

36,145

29,338

374

29,712

GCV AREA Total

40,954

38,248

1,190

39,438

32,133

819

32,952

Discrete HSMAs

* Shared Equity/Shared Ownership sites have been identified separately in the Housing Land Audit and Urban Capacity Study and have not been included in the Private Sector Land Supply for the Supply/Demand Comparison

2008 Stock

2008/09 Completions

2009/16 Completions (HLA)

2009/20 Completions (UCS)

2008/20 RTB Sales

2008/20 Demolitions

2020 Stock

2020 Vacant Stock

2020 Vacancy Rate

Other non-effective stock

2020 Effective Stock

2020/25 Completions (UCS)

2020/25 RTB Sales

2020/25 Demolitions

2025 Stock

2025 Vacant Stock

2025 Vacancy Rate

Other non-effective stock

2025 Effective Stock

Table 7.2 Private Sector Housing Stock Projections for LA and Housing Market Areas 2008 to 2020 and 2025 TOTAL PRIVATE SECTOR STOCK

Local Authority East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV Total

38,597 32,600 182,636 27,865 100,473 61,131 110,205 26,905 580,412

142 99 1,755 150 1,115 635 1,134 184 5,214

1,457 1,373 12,518 1,414 6,379 3,717 9,889 2,449 39,196

1,262 829 12,808 1,777 8,766 4,554 5,769 1,417 37,182

411 279 6,899 425 5,558 1,047 1,752 761 17,132

0 73 629 206 427 22 31 0 1,388

41,869 35,107 215,987 31,425 121,864 71,029 128,848 31,718 677,847

492 570 4,207 583 1,943 1,633 2,334 482 12,244

1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.8%

206 113 994 243 298 305 464 152 2,775

41,171 34,424 210,786 30,599 119,623 69,091 126,050 31,084 662,828

408 277 15,906 1,453 6,427 2,745 2,544 1,746 31,506

105 75 2,749 110 2,125 425 730 217 6,536

0 25 0 0 0 0 12 0 37

42,382 35,434 234,642 32,989 130,416 74,232 131,980 33,679 715,754

497 573 4,394 599 2,028 1,665 2,366 502 12,624

1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.5% 1.8%

206 113 994 243 298 305 464 152 2,775

41,679 34,748 229,254 32,147 128,090 72,262 129,150 33,025 700,355

Housing Market Area/ Sub Market Area Greater Glasgow North & West Strathkelvin & Springburn Glasgow East Cumbernauld Greater Glasgow South Renfrewshire East Kilbride Airdrie & Coatbridge Motherwell Hamilton Clydesdale Dumbarton & Vale of Leven Inverclyde GCV Total

93,310 31,951 36,433 29,032 116,886 70,885 32,306 29,759 41,682 36,538 21,044 14,984 25,602 580,412

967 147 499 222 781 665 201 512 381 277 319 93 150 5,214

5,877 1,858 3,733 1,360 6,120 4,413 2,842 2,333 2,686 2,697 2,265 1,782 1,230 39,196

4,514 2,290 4,527 2,909 5,199 4,983 1,641 2,014 3,843 1,882 987 616 1,777 37,182

2,857 770 1,644 834 2,904 1,208 372 2,043 2,681 696 324 374 425 17,132

180 191 127 427 203 33 3 0 0 6 12 0 206 1,388

107,404 36,825 46,709 33,930 132,299 81,983 37,389 36,661 51,273 41,572 24,927 17,792 29,083 677,847

2,035 493 817 552 2,428 1,817 687 575 816 764 446 275 539 12,244

1.9% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8%

726 141 120 87 453 350 137 88 123 154 88 84 224 2,775

104,643 36,191 45,772 33,291 129,418 79,816 36,565 35,998 50,334 40,654 24,393 17,433 28,320 662,828

5,599 2,131 4,835 1,311 5,105 2,937 842 1,442 3,674 1,174 106 899 1,451 31,506

1,090 259 639 321 1,154 472 155 771 1,033 290 135 107 110 6,536

0 0 0 0 25 5 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 37

114,034 39,215 52,183 35,562 137,921 85,526 38,356 38,874 55,980 43,546 25,163 18,855 30,539 715,754

2,102 517 872 568 2,484 1,852 697 597 863 784 448 286 554 12,624

1.8% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8%

726 141 120 87 453 350 137 88 123 154 88 84 224 2,775

111,206 38,557 51,191 34,907 134,984 83,324 37,522 38,189 54,994 42,608 24,627 18,485 29,761 700,355

* excluding 31 March - 30 June completions

Table 7.3 Social Rented Housing Stock Projections for LA 2008 to 2016, 2020 and 2025

2025 Vacancy Rate

0 0 1,573 500 150 0 95 533 2,851

4,974 4,279 97,688 9,282 39,663 19,465 30,897 15,748 221,996

37 84 2,338 341 620 473 324 234 4,451

0.74% 1.96% 2.39% 3.67% 1.56% 2.43% 1.05% 1.49% 2.00%

* excluding 31 March - 30 June completions

0 0 248 0 0 0 0 0 248

2025 Effective Stock

2025 Vacancies

105 75 2,749 110 2,125 425 730 217 6,536

Other non-effective stock

2025 Stock

0 78 559 389 477 0 690 436 2,629

2020/25 Demolitions

Local Authority East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV Total

2020/25 RTB Sales

2020/25 Completions (UCS)

* excluding 31 March - 30 June completions

4,937 4,195 95,102 8,941 39,043 18,992 30,573 15,514 217,297

2016/20 RTB Sales

2016/20 Demolitions

2020 Stock

2020 Vacancies

2020 Vacancy Rate

Other non-effective stock

0.72% 2.01% 3.28% 3.68% 1.56% 2.46% 1.03% 1.47% 2.41%

0 0 248 0 0 0 0 0 248

5,074 4,150 100,570 9,223 42,245 19,615 30,246 16,648 227,771

74 120 1,962 434 636 120 1,131 278 4,755

106 79 2,242 106 1,936 340 584 213 5,606

0 0 2,511 400 155 0 76 900 4,042

5,079 4,276 101,451 9,503 41,461 19,890 31,032 16,062 228,754

37 86 2,433 349 647 485 323 238 4,598

0.73% 2.01% 2.40% 3.67% 1.56% 2.44% 1.04% 1.48% 2.01%

0 0 248 0 0 0 0 0 248

2020 Effective Stock

2016/20 Completions (UCS)

37 85 3,424 352 671 495 315 249 5,628

2016 Effective Stock

5,111 4,235 104,242 9,575 42,916 20,110 30,561 16,897 233,647

Other non-effective stock

370 4 12,448 2,920 513 1,252 649 697 18,853

2016 Vacancies

305 200 4,657 319 3,622 707 1,168 548 11,526

2016 Vacancy Rate

0 0 898 53 0 205 187 25 1,368

2016 Stock

261 275 6,308 1,199 826 637 579 788 10,873

2009/16 Demolitions

88 17 827 93 235 91 199 121 1,671

2009/16 RTB Sales

2009/16 Completions (HLA)

5,437 4,147 113,314 11,469 45,990 21,136 31,413 17,208 250,114

2009/16 Completions (UCS)

2008/09 Completions

Local Authority East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV Total

June 2008 Stock

TOTAL SOCIAL RENTED STOCK

5,042 4,190 98,770 9,115 40,814 19,405 30,716 15,049 223,101

8.0

Private Sector

A. Local and Mobile Demand at 2020 and 2025 8.1

For most of the GCV area, the HMA framework is a tiered system that recognises local areas (Housing Sub â&#x20AC;&#x201C;Market Areas) that have a degree of self-containment, but which are linked to wider market areas.

8.2

Inverclyde (excluding Kilmacolm) and the Dumbarton / Vale of Leven area are identified as discrete HMAs where the concepts of local and mobile demand are not applicable. For these two areas, projected stock and households are compared with no further adjustments.

8.3

Mobility is an inherent characteristic of metropolitan housing market areas and this was recognised in SPP 3 and PAN 38, although this is omitted from SPP and PAN 2/2010. The twin concepts of mobile demand and a tiered system of HMAs have been a feature of the way in which the comparison of supply and demand has been managed in the Conurbation first by Strathclyde Regional Council and subsequently for the GCV Structure Plan. This approach is based on the premise that while most demand is localised, there is an element that cannot simply be allocated to a particular area and can be considered to be mobile.

8.4

Sasines evidence of house-buying moves provides the basis for the calculation of mobile demand. There are two categories of movers that potentially can be considered as mobile: (a) incoming households from outside the GCV area (SDPA); and (b) households moving within the GCV area between Sub Market Areas.

8.5

It cannot be assumed that all such movers are genuinely mobile in the sense that they search in more than one area and that their destination could be influenced by the distribution of housing opportunities. Housing search patterns are crucial in differentiating between mobile and local demand, i.e. (a) Local - households whose search area for housing is limited to one particular Sub Market Area; (b) Mobile - households whose search area for housing is wider than any one Sub Market Area. Raw Sasines data, however, only gives the outcome of housing search patterns.

8.6

Projected mobile demand is therefore based on updated Sasines evidence (2002-08) of house-buying moves in conjunction with new evidence of housing search patterns from the 2007/08 Housing Choice Survey1. Each stage in the process of splitting the private sector household projections between local and mobile demand is described below.

8.7

Evidence of the number of households moving into each Housing Sub Market Area (HSMA), either from outside the GCV area or from other Sub Market Areas, has been derived from Sasines data covering the 2002-08 period. Moves between Sub Market Areas that have a significant link or are contiguous are included. Other moves have been excluded to allow for the possibility that some of the longer-distance moves within the GCV Area are not housing-led. There are no discernible trends in the overall level of cross-boundary moves and it is therefore assumed that the levels of mobility seen in the 2002-08 period would continue in the future.

A full report on the 2007/08 Housing Choice Survey can be found on the GCVSDPA website.

8.8

The previous Housing Choice Survey (2000), used in the 2006 GCV Structure Plan, showed that the proportion of movers whose housing search area was not limited to one particular Sub-Market Area was 40% in the Central Conurbation and 50% in the Eastern Conurbation.

8.9

For the 2007/08 Housing Choice Survey, the opportunity was taken to streamline the survey and improve the quality of the results through the use of a more focussed set of questions on housing search patterns. The survey shows a slightly higher proportion of movers searching in more than one Sub-Market Area than previously identified: 50% in the Central Conurbation and 60% in the Eastern Conurbation (ref Table 8.1). These latest figures are used in the calculation of mobile demand. Table 8.1 Percentage of house-buying movers who searched in more than one Sub-Market Area

Central Conurbation Eastern Conurbation

2000 Housing Choice Survey 40% 50%

2007/08 Housing Choice Survey 50% 60%

8.10

Local demand in each Sub Market Area is calculated by subtracting mobile demand from the projected private sector households. The logic behind this procedure is set out in the following paragraph.

8.11

The household projections already implicitly contain a set of assumptions on housingled migration by virtue of the fact that the underlying population projections have been based on past migration trends. Although the projection assumes an improving migration position overall, the relationship between local authorities is still firmly based on past trends. If no allowance were made for mobile demand, the projection would simply perpetuate past trends in housing-led migration, thereby building in an undesirable policy bias. This would not allow for the possibility that a different distribution of housing opportunities could change the pattern of housing-led migration.

8.12

The level of mobile demand is based on an analysis of house-buying moves (Sasines) covering the period to 2008. This is generally consistent with the mobile demand estimates used in the 2006 Plan which were based on the period 1996 to 2002. This consistency provides a degree of confidence in the assumption that this level of mobile demand will continue. It can then be reasonably assumed that the pattern of moves identified in the Sasines is, implicitly, included in the population and household projections. Subtracting mobile demand from the projected private sector households thereby provides a neutral estimate of local demand in each Sub Market Area uninfluenced by the past distribution of housing opportunities in the Conurbation.

8.13

The calculation of mobile demand needs to cover the whole projection period from 2008 to 2025. However, to simply sum 17 years-worth of past evidence of mobile demand would significantly exaggerate the proportion of projected households at 2025 that could be considered to have been â&#x20AC;&#x153;mobileâ&#x20AC;? during that period. Historically, home owners have tended to move house every five to seven years and, over a 17-year period, many households will move more than once.

8.14

To overcome this problem, the relationship between mobile demand and projected households has been established for a period of only five years beyond the 2008 base date, i.e. 2013. This relationship is expressed in terms of mobile demand as a percentage of projected households at 2013, as shown in Table 8.2. The percentages derived at 2013 are then applied to projected households at 2020 and 2025 (see tables 8.3 and 8.4). This methodology results in the estimated level of mobile demand of 28,728 at 2013 rising only slightly to 31,391 at 2020 and 32,936 at 2025, reflecting the overall growth in private sector households in that period.

8.15

Tables 8.3 (2020) and 8.4 (2025) show the mobile demand estimates and how these are used to calculate local demand for each Sub Market Area. The figures shown in these tables relate to the Planning scenario C2 (High Affordability) projection only. Three sets of mobile demand figures are shown: a) moves from outside the GCV area; b) moves between Sub Market Areas (origin Central Conurbation); and c) moves between Sub Market Areas (origin Eastern Conurbation).

8.16

The distinction between the latter two enables mobile demand to be calculated separately for each of the two second-tier HMAs (Central Conurbation and Eastern Conurbation) and the first-tier Conurbation HMA. As Table 8.3 shows, although total mobile demand in the Conurbation at 2020 amounts to 31,391 households, only a small proportion (3,353 households) is mobile across the whole Conurbation HMA. The vast majority is mobile solely within either the Central Conurbation (22,329 households) or the Eastern Conurbation (5,710 households).

Table 8.2 Private Households - 2013 Projection - Mobile and Local Demand Mobile Demand 50% of In50% of InMigrant Migrant Households Households from Central from Eastern Conurbation Conurbation

Mobile Demand as a % of Projected Private Households at 2013 50% of In50% of In50% of InMigrant Migrant Migrant Households Households Households from outside from Central from Eastern Total Mobile GCVSPA Conurbation Conurbation Demand

Projected Private Households at 2013

50% of InMigrant Households from outside GCVSPA

97,436 32,330 39,351 30,316 122,255 71,486 33,545 426,719

3,507 322 1,131 403 2,118 1,088 307 8,876

Projected Private Households at 2013

60% of InMigrant Households from outside GCVSPA

Eastern Conurbation Airdrie & Coatbridge Motherwell Hamilton Clydesdale Total

31,623 44,222 38,064 21,912 135,821

493 686 643 560 2,382

479 229 1,229 109 2,046

284 1,286 781 490 2,841

1,256 2,201 2,653 1,159 7,269

1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 2.6% 1.8%

1.5% 0.5% 3.2% 0.5% 1.5%

0.9% 2.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%

4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 5.3% 5.4%

Conurbation Totals

562,540

11,258

13,618

3,852

28,728

2.0%

2.4%

0.7%

5.1%

Central Conurbation Greater Glasgow North & West Strathkelvin & Springburn Glasgow East Cumbernauld Greater Glasgow South Renfrewshire East Kilbride Total

2,140 1,020 1,838 718 3,828 1,287 741 11,572

0 0 418 84 309 0 200 1,011

Mobile Demand 60% of In60% of InMigrant Migrant Households Households from Central from Eastern Conurbation Conurbation

Total Mobile Demand

5,647 1,342 3,387 1,205 6,255 2,375 1,248 21,459

Total Mobile Demand

3.6% 1.0% 2.9% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 2.1%

2.2% 3.2% 4.7% 2.4% 3.1% 1.8% 2.2% 2.7%

0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2%

5.8% 4.2% 8.6% 4.0% 5.1% 3.3% 3.7% 5.0%

Mobile Demand as a % of Projected Private Households at 2013 60% of In60% of In60% of InMigrant Migrant Migrant Households Households Households from outside from Central from Eastern Total Mobile GCVSPA Conurbation Conurbation Demand

Table 8.3 Private Households - 2020 Projection - Mobile and Local Demand

Projected Private Households at 2020

Mobile Demand as a % of Projected Private Households % Mobile % Mobile â&#x20AC;&#x201C; % Mobile â&#x20AC;&#x201C; In-Migrant In-Migrant In-Migrant Households Households Households from outside from Central from Eastern GCVSPA Conurbation Conurbation

In-Migrant Households from outside GCVSPA

Mobile Demand In-Migrant In-Migrant Households Households from from Central Eastern Conurbation Conurbation

Total Mobile Demand

Local Demand

Central Conurbation Greater Glasgow North & West Strathkelvin & Springburn Glasgow East Cumbernauld Greater Glasgow South Renfrewshire East Kilbride Total

106,988 34,477 44,824 32,837 133,936 73,815 36,322 463,199

3.6% 1.0% 2.9% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9%

2.2% 3.2% 4.7% 2.4% 3.1% 1.8% 2.2%

0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%

3,851 343 1,288 437 2,320 1,123 332 9,695

2,350 1,088 2,094 778 4,194 1,329 802 12,634

0 0 476 91 339 0 217 1,122

6,201 1,431 3,858 1,305 6,853 2,452 1,351 23,451

100,787 33,046 40,966 31,532 127,083 71,363 34,971 439,748

Eastern Conurbation Airdrie & Coatbridge Motherwell Hamilton Clydesdale Total

34,840 48,674 41,283 23,754 148,551

1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 2.6%

1.5% 0.5% 3.2% 0.5%

0.9% 2.9% 2.1% 2.2%

543 755 697 607 2,603

528 252 1,333 118 2,231

313 1,415 847 531 3,107

1,384 2,423 2,877 1,256 7,940

33,456 46,251 38,406 22,498 140,611

Conurbation Totals

611,750

12,298

14,865

4,229

31,391

580,359

Central Conurbation Eastern Conurbation Conurbation Total

Mobile Demand at 2020 22,329 (9,695+12,634) 5,710 (2,603+3,107) 3,353 (1,122+2,231) 31,319

Table 8.4 Private Households - 2025 Projection - Mobile and Local Demand

Projected Private Households at 2025

In-Migrant Households from outside GCVSPA

Mobile Demand In-Migrant In-Migrant Households Households from from Central Eastern Conurbation Conurbation

Total Mobile Demand

Local Demand

Central Conurbation Greater Glasgow North & West Strathkelvin & Springburn Glasgow East Cumbernauld Greater Glasgow South Renfrewshire East Kilbride Total

111,939 35,428 47,478 34,497 140,720 75,659 38,312 484,033

3.6% 1.0% 2.9% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9%

2.2% 3.2% 4.7% 2.4% 3.1% 1.8% 2.2%

0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%

4,029 353 1,365 459 2,438 1,152 351 10,145

2,459 1,118 2,218 817 4,406 1,362 846 13,225

0 0 504 96 356 0 228 1,184

6,488 1,471 4,087 1,371 7,200 2,514 1,425 24,555

105,451 33,957 43,391 33,126 133,520 73,145 36,887 459,478

Eastern Conurbation Airdrie & Coatbridge Motherwell Hamilton Clydesdale Total

36,813 51,387 43,564 25,061 156,825

1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 2.6%

1.5% 0.5% 3.2% 0.5%

0.9% 2.9% 2.1% 2.2%

574 797 736 640 2,747

558 266 1,407 125 2,355

331 1,494 894 560 3,279

1,462 2,558 3,036 1,326 8,382

35,351 48,829 40,528 23,735 148,443

Conurbation Totals

640,858

12,893

15,580

4,463

32,936

607,922

Central Conurbation Eastern Conurbation Conurbation Total

Mobile Demand at 2025 23,370 (10,145+13,225) 6,026 (2,747+3,729) 3,539 (1,184+2,355) 32,936

B. Private Sector Comparison of Demand and Supply at 2020 and 2025 8.17

In order to establish if there is a requirement for additional land for private housing at 2020 and 2025, the projected effective stock is compared with projected demand. The comparisons are set out in Table 8.5 and 8.6. Please note that demand figures in these tables differ to those shown in 8.3 and 8.4 because these include the lower estimate of backlog need while tables 8.3 and 8.4 do not.

8.18

Dumbarton & Vale of Leven and Inverclyde HMAs are treated as self-contained market areas and the concept of mobile demand is not applicable. The comparison is therefore simply between total demand and effective stock. Tables 8.4 and 8.5 show that in both Dumbarton & Vale of Leven and Inverclyde no shortfall in supply emerges by 2020 or 2025. There is, therefore, an adequate supply of land already identified in the existing supply. The surplus stock at 2020 is carried forward to help meet demand in the 2020-25 period, and, consequently, the balance of supply and demand shown at 2025 is a cumulative one covering both periods . Table 8.5 shows that the surplus in both areas increases between 2020 and 2025. This indicates that, based on the potential capacity identified in the Urban Capacity Study, an adequate supply of housing land can be identified.

8.19

In the wider conurbation HMA the comparison involves a three-stage process: a) The first stage is a test of the adequacy of the projected stock in meeting local demand. Local demand is compared with the effective stock in each Sub Market Area. b) The second stage involves the comparison of supply and mobile demand for each of the two second-tier HMAs. The local surpluses of stock that emerge from the first stage are summed for the Central Conurbation and the Eastern conurbation separately and compared with mobile demand that is specific to those areas. c) The third and final stage involves the comparison of supply and mobile demand for the Conurbation first-tier HMA. If any surpluses emerge from the second stage they are summed and compared with the estimate of demand that is mobile across the wider conurbation. Any shortfalls in supply that emerge from each stage in the comparison should be remedied at the relevant tier in the HMA system.

8.20

In fact, as Table 8.5 shows, at 2025 there are no projected shortfalls in supply at any stage of the supply/demand comparison. The only shortfall identified is a strategically insignificant 94 in the Conurbation HMA as a whole at 2020 (see Table 8.4). A significant factor in the increasing surplus of stock over demand projected between 2020 and 2025 is the impact of backlog need. In accordance with HNDA guidance, it is assumed that backlog need should be met over a ten-year period: 2009 to 2019. Consequently, the level of completions required to meet both the increase in private demand and backlog need by 2020 is significantly higher than that required to meet private demand only in the following five years.

8.21

For the purposes of this assessment, and recognising the role of intermediate housing products in helping to meet affordable housing needs, any sites in the Housing Land Audit and Urban Capacity Study that are identified for shared equity or shared ownership have been excluded from the projections of private sector supply.

TABLE 8.5 PROJECTION C2 HIGH AFFORDABILITY Comparison of private supply and demand (including Lower Estimate Backlog Need*) at 2020 STAGE1 Locally Targeted Demand at 2020

Effective Stock at 2020

Local Shortfall

Local Surplus

Greater Glasgow North & West Strathkelvin & Springburn Glasgow East Cumbernauld Greater Glasgow South Renfrewshire East Kilbride Central Conurbation

101,150 33,296 40,966 32,071 127,717 72,047 35,363 442,610

104,643 36,191 45,772 33,291 129,418 79,816 36,565 465,696

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3,493 2,895 4,806 1,220 1,701 7,769 1,202 23,086

Airdrie & Coatbridge Motherwell Hamilton Clydesdale Eastern Conurbation

34,121 47,137 39,138 22,772 143,168

35,998 50,334 40,654 24,393 151,379

0 0 0 0 0

1,877 3,197 1,516 1,621 8,211

Mobile Demand at 2020

Local Surpluses at 2020 (from Stage 1)

Mobile Shortfall

Mobile Surplus

22,329 5,709 28,038

23,086 8,211 31,297

0 0 0

757 2,502 3,259

Mobile Demand at 2020

Mobile Surplus at 2020 (from Stage 2)

Mobile Shortfall

Mobile Surplus

3,353

3,259

Demand at 2020

Effective Stock at 2020

Shortfall

Surplus

16,391 26,500

17,433 28,320

0 0

1,042 1,820

Sub-Market Area

STAGE 2

2nd Tier Market Area Central Conurbation Eastern Conurbation

STAGE 3

1st Tier Market Area Conurbation

Individual HMA Dumbarton & Vale of Leven Inverclyde

GCV-wide position Projected completions (09-20) included in above projected stock figures 76,477 Sum of above surpluses/shortfalls 2,768 Required completions (09-20) 73,709 Required completions - annual 6,701 *Tribal applied an affordability test to those in Backlog Need to identify what proportion could meet their needs in the private market. The Lower Estimate of Backlog Need refers to the lower level of those who could meet their need in the private market, the remainder are assumed to require social rented housing

TABLE 8.6 PROJECTION C2 HIGH AFFORDABILITY Comparison of private supply and demand (including Lower Estimate Backlog Need*) at 2025 STAGE1 Locally Targeted Demand at 2025

Effective Stock at 2025

Local Shortfall

Local Surplus

Greater Glasgow North & West Strathkelvin & Springburn Glasgow East Cumbernauld Greater Glasgow South Renfrewshire East Kilbride Central Conurbation

105,814 34,207 43,391 33,665 134,154 73,829 37,279 462,340

111,264 38,557 51,191 34,907 135,590 83,184 37,552 492,245

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5,450 4,350 7,800 1,242 1,436 9,355 273 29,905

Airdrie & Coatbridge Motherwell Hamilton Clydesdale Eastern Conurbation

36,016 49,715 41,260 24,009 151,000

38,189 54,994 42,101 24,627 159,911

0 0 0 0 0

2,173 5,279 841 618 8,911

Mobile Demand at 2025

Local Surpluses at 2025 (from Stage 1)

Mobile Shortfall

Mobile Surplus

23,371 6,027 29,397

29,905 8,911 38,815

0 0 0

6,534 2,884 9,418

Mobile Demand at 2025

Mobile Surplus at 2025 (from Stage 2)

Mobile Shortfall

Mobile Surplus

3,539

9,418

5,879

Demand at 2025

Effective Stock at 2025

Shortfall

Surplus

Dumbarton & Vale of Leven Inverclyde

16,892 26,677

18,429 29,865

0 0

1,537 3,188

GCV-wide position Projected completions (09-25) included in above projected stock figures

107,981

Sum of above surpluses/shortfalls Required completions (09-25) Required completions - annual

10,604 97,377 6,086

Sub-Market Area

STAGE 2

2nd Tier Market Area Central Conurbation Eastern Conurbation

STAGE 3

1st Tier Market Area Conurbation

Individual HMA

*Tribal applied an affordability test to those in Backlog Need to identify what proportion could meet their needs in the private market. The Lower Estimate of Backlog Need refers to the lower level of those who could meet their need in the private market, the remainder are assumed to require social rented housing

9.0

Affordable Sector

A. Social Rented Sector Comparison of Need and Supply 9.1

The SDP, under HNDA Guidance, is required to provide an assessment of housing requirements for all tenures. Tribal/Optimal Economics’ affordability analysis provided a set of future household tenure outcomes which can form the basis of two alternative approaches to the assessment of housing needs in the affordable sector. Tribal/Optimal Economics’ Stage 2 outputs of the total number of projected households in the affordable/social rented sector can be compared with total projected stock. This is similar to the approach used for the private sector, the main difference being the geographical basis on which the comparisons are made. However, the preferred approach is that set out in the HNDA guidance which is based on a comparison of projected household inflows and housing re-lets in the social rented sector. Although the first of these approaches will be presented in section 9Aii it is the Housing Needs Assessment methodology presented in 9Ai that has been adopted by the HMPCG in accordance with HNDA Guidance and represents housing requirements in the Affordable Sector.

9.2

The Housing Market Area system developed for the 2000 Plan provides the geographical framework for comparing supply and demand in the private sector. In the social rented sector, there is insufficient data on which to base an HMA system operating beyond local authority boundaries. In the absence of a wider framework, the demand and stock projections for the affordable sector are presented at the local authority level. These are subsequently disaggregated to the 31 LA Sub-Areas identified by each Council as the most appropriate geography for more localised housing needs assessments.

i) Housing Needs Assessment Method to 2016, 2020 and 2025 9.3

As outlined in the introduction and methodology, the HNDA guidance outlines a method to assess the a requirement for social rented housing - this is essentially the traditional ‘Housing Needs Assessment’ method. The basic framework of this model has in recent years been used by local authorities to assess local housing needs to help inform LHS development and is a common recognisable approach in the UK to assessing the housing requirement for social renting housing.

9.4

As outlined in the HNDA Guidance, the traditional housing needs method has essentially three separate components: current housing (backlog) need, future housing need and affordable housing supply. • Current housing need – as explained in Section 4, the assessment of current housing (backlog) need has been undertaken in accordance with the HNDA Guidance and full details of the approach can be found at Technical Annex A 3 ‘Backlog Need’. • Future housing need – this comprises of new households falling into need and existing households falling into need. The household tenure projections produced by Tribal/Optimal Economics provide the estimates for both parts of future housing need; stage 1 of the Tribal/Optimal Economics study provides the proxy for new households falling into need and stage 2 of the study provides the proxy for existing households falling into need i.e. existing households moving to social renting housing. • Affordable housing supply – this section largely follows the HNDA Guidance by looking at projected stock levels of social rented stock, future void levels, analysing past re-let trends (turnover) and projecting them forward to give annual supply of social rented to meet housing need.

9.5

Net annual housing need is estimated by summing the annual quota of current housing need to the annual newly arising need and by then subtracting the future annual supply of affordable housing from this total. A negative figure implies a net surplus of affordable housing.

9.6

The summary results are set out by GCV area and local authority for 2016, 2020 and 2025 in Table 9.1. Annual figures by LA can be seen in Tables 9.2 and 9.3. For the city region the results show a net housing need for nearly 50,000 affordable households by 2016, and an additional 24,000 in net housing need by 2020 and an additional 7,600 by 2025 – in total there is an estimated 81,000 households with a net housing need over the period 2008-25. It should be noted that the LHS time period is 2011-16 and that Backlog Need is included for the years 2009-19. Table 9.1 Summary of GCV Area Housing Need Requirement in Accordance with Housing Needs Assessment Supply/Need Comparison Model 2008-2025 2008-16

2016-20

C2 Low Affordability East Dunbartonshire 4,375 2,038 East Renfrewshire 2,134 954 Glasgow City 31,914 15,689 Inverclyde 3,026 1,396 North Lanarkshire -1,537 -152 Renfrewshire 1,146 -61 South Lanarkshire 9,158 4,302 West Dunbartonshire -249 -154 GCV area 49,967 24,013 NB. Negative figures are surpluses Backlog Need is included for the years 2009-19

2020-25

2008-25 Total

1,221 204 9,990 412 -1,879 -2,081 1,279 -1,517 7,630

7,634 3,292 57,593 4,834 -3,568 -995 14,739 -1,919 81,610

9.7

Individual local authorities’ Housing Needs Assessment Proformas and their inputs can be seen in tables 9.4 – 9.11.

9.8

In order to undertake the HNA the constituent LAs were required to develop and populate a Housing Supply Template (ref Tables 9.12 - 9.19). Developed in line with HNDA Guidance the Housing Supply Template (HST) presents information on social rented newbuild, demolitions and right-to-buy (RTB) to determine the end-year social rented stock. Consideration is then given to void rates to determine the end-year total lettable stock. By assessing turnover rates for the past 3 years and taking an average, this turnover rate is projected to 2025. The turnover rate is applied to the end-year total lettable stock to give annual projected re-lets. It should be noted that to maintain consistency the HST social rented new build figures 2009-16 are taken from the 2009 Housing Land Audit undertaken annually by local authorities and post 2016 from the Urban Capacity Study 2009. All other information is provided by local authorities.

9.9

The end-year total lettable stock in the HST is then used as an input to the Housing Needs Assessment Proforma (ref Tables 9.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 9.11). This supply is set against need, the outputs from the Tribal Affordability Study â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Backlog Need and newly arising need, and the turnover rate is applied to determine the total annual supply (new social rented lets). In the HNAs results are presented for both the high and low estimates of Backlog Need, however, it is the high estimate of Backlog Need that is being used in the Affordable sector. Tribal applied an affordability test to those in Backlog Need to identify what proportion could meet their needs in the private market. The Upper Estimate of Backlog Need means that fewer households could meet their needs in the private market, therefore, more are assumed to require social rented housing (the corresponding lower level of Backlog Need has been included in the Private sector demand).

9.10

It should be noted that a net housing need does not directly translate into a new build housing requirement for affordable housing. As indicated in the HNDA Guidance, information about net need and the resulting housing requirement should be presented with evidence from the other stages of the needs assessment to inform decisions about appropriate policy interventions.

Table 9.2 GCVSDPA Housing Needs Assessment Summary by Local Authority to 2025 including High Estimate of Backlog Need C2 LOW AFFORDABILITY (25/33%) inc High Estimate of Backlog Need

ED ER GC IC NL RF SL WD GCV

200809 208 46 854 89 1,115 318 38 -417 21

200910 587 301 4,367 278

201011 585 295 4,390 447

201112 594 292 4,399 444

201213 590 293 4,468 444

201314 597 306 4,414 431

201415 606 302 4,490 441

201516 606 299 4,531 452

200816 4,375 2,134 31,914 3,026

201617 598 301 4,661 441

201718 602 301 4,643 437

201819 605 309 4,580 436

201920 232 43 1,805 82

201620 2,038 954 15,689 1,396

202021 243 33 1,830 85

202122 246 44 2,000 93

202223 248 43 2,024 79

202324 252 43 2,034 82

202425 234 41 2,103 73

202025 1,221 204 9,990 412

200825 7,634 3,292 57,593 4,834

-205 99 1,251 16 6,695

-164 109 1,268 25 6,956

-88 133 1,290 23 7,088

-52 126 1,300 25 7,195

-6 102 1,295 21 7,160

27 119 1,348 33 7,366

66 140 1,367 25 7,486

-1,537 1,146 9,158 -249 49,967

108 128 1,380 43 7,661

108 127 1,369 61 7,647

164 128 1,371 65 7,658

-531 -444 183 -323 1,048

-152 -61 4,302 -154 24,013

-460 -441 220 -308 1,201

-370 -402 280 -291 1,600

-370 -408 250 -296 1,570

-327 -409 272 -311 1,635

-352 -422 257 -310 1,623

-1,879 -2,081 1,279 -1,517 7,630

-3,568 -995 14,739 -1,919 81,610

Please note that Backlog Need is included in years 2009-2019 Table 9.3 GCVSDPA Housing Needs Assessment Summary by Local Authority to 2025 including High Estimate of Backlog Need C2 HIGH AFFORDABILITY (33/40%) inc High Estimate of Backlog Need

ED ER GC IC NL RF SL WD GCV

200809 115 -36 57 -42 1,605 -48 -642 -577 2,778

200910 493 223 3,582 148

201011 497 222 3,653 321

201112 506 220 3,694 326

201213 506 221 3,788 327

201314 512 231 3,780 321

201415 519 231 3,878 332

201516 521 230 3,926 346

200816 3,671 1,540 26,359 2,079

201617 516 230 4,060 339

201718 518 231 4,063 337

201819 522 237 4,031 338

201920 150 -29 1,255 -15

201620 1,707 669 13,409 999

202021 159 -30 1,294 -12

202122 163 -21 1,444 -5

202223 164 -21 1,483 -14

202324 167 -20 1,510 -10

202425 155 -20 1,584 -15

202025 806 -113 7,314 -57

200825 6,184 2,097 47,082 3,022

-664 -258 598 -140

-586 -232 648 -125

-490 -209 685 -120

-428 -200 713 -115

-370 -206 731 -113

-322 -189 773 -103

-280 -172 798 -108

-4,745 -1,514 4,305 -1,401

-235 -173 811 -89

-215 -168 810 -69

-165 -162 815 -60

-1,456 -1,234 2,079 -665

-784 -722 -330 -431

-719 -697 -293 -418

-693 -695 -299 -418

-650 -690 -281 -426

-641 -692 -281 -424

-3,487 -3,495 -1,484 -2,118

-9,688 -6,242 4,900 -4,183

3,983

4,399

4,613

4,813

4,886

5,120

5,259

30,295

5,460

5,507

5,556

-840 -731 -356 -447 1,012

15,510

-858

-547

-493

-401

-336

-2,633

43,172

Please note that Backlog Need is included in years 2009-2019

Table 9.4 East Dunbartonshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 ED Housing Need Assessment - C2 33% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

279 49 73 62 463 463 5,104 5.0% 255 208 208

407 371 317 294 50 73 60 848 794 5,011 5.2% 261 587 533

407 371 317 287 50 73 58 839 785 4,879 5.2% 254 585 531

407 371 317 296 50 73 57 847 793 4,859 5.2% 253 594 540

407 371 317 293 50 73 56 843 789 4,857 5.2% 253 590 536

407 371 317 299 50 73 56 849 795 4,849 5.2% 252 597 543

407 371 317 308 50 73 55 857 803 4,819 5.2% 251 606 552

407 371 317 305 51 73 55 855 801 4,791 5.2% 249 606 552

4,374 3,996

407 371 317 296 51 74 55 847 793 4,781 5.2% 249 598 544

407 371 317 298 51 74 56 850 796 4773 5.2% 248 602 548

407 371 317 300 52 74 56 853 799 4,766 5.2% 248 605 551

298 52 74 56 480 480 4,760 5.2% 248 232 232

2,038 1,876

307 52 74 56 489 489 4,738 5.2% 246 243 243

308 53 74 56 491 491 4,718 5.2% 245 246 246

309 53 74 56 492 492 4,698 5.2% 244 248 248

310 54 74 57 495 495 4,679 5.2% 243 252 252

291 54 74 57 476 476 4,661 5.2% 242 234 234

1,221 1,221

2008-25

7,634 7,094

ED Housing Need Assessment - C2 40% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

186 49 73 62 370 370 5,104 5.0% 255 115 115

407 371 317 196 50 73 64 754 700 5,011 5.2% 261 493 439

407 371 317 191 50 73 66 751 697 4,879 5.2% 254 497 443

407 371 317 197 50 73 68 759 705 4,859 5.2% 253 506 452

407 371 317 195 50 74 69 759 705 4,857 5.2% 253 506 452

407 371 317 199 50 74 70 764 710 4,849 5.2% 252 512 458

407 371 317 205 50 74 70 770 716 4,819 5.2% 251 519 465

407 371 317 203 51 74 71 770 716 4,791 5.2% 249 521 467

3,670 3,292

407 371 317 197 51 74 72 765 711 4,781 5.2% 249 516 462

407 371 317 198 51 74 72 766 712 4773 5.2% 248 518 464

407 371 317 200 52 74 73 770 716 4,766 5.2% 248 522 468

199 52 74 73 398 398 4,760 5.2% 248 150 150

1,707 1,545

205 52 75 73 405 405 4,738 5.2% 246 159 159

206 53 75 74 408 408 4,718 5.2% 245 163 163

206 53 75 74 408 408 4,698 5.2% 244 164 164

207 54 75 74 410 410 4,679 5.2% 243 167 167

194 54 75 74 397 397 4,661 5.2% 242 155 155

806 806

2008-25

6,184 5,644

Table 9.5 East Renfrewshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 ER Housing Need Assessment - C2 33% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

197 31 62 59 349 349 4,091

292 264 221 198 31 62 53 608 565 4,147

292 264 221 199 31 62 49 605 562 4,190

292 264 221 198 31 64 47 604 561 4,220

292 264 221 203 31 63 45 606 563 4,228

292 264 221 216 31 63 43 617 574 4,202

292 264 221 211 31 63 42 611 568 4,181

292 264 221 208 31 64 42 609 566 4,189

7.4%

303 46 46

307 301 258

310 295 252

312 292 249

313 293 250

311 306 263

309 302 259

310 299 256

2,134 1,833

2016-17

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25

292 264 221 212 31 64 41 612 569 4,198

292 264 221 212 31 64 41 612 569 4,206

292 264 221 221 31 64 41 621 578 4,216

219 31 65 41 356 356 4,230

7.4%

311 301 258

312 309 266

313 43 43

954 825

209 31 65 41 346 346 4,230

219 31 65 42 357 357 4,229

216 32 66 42 356 356 4,229

216 32 66 42 356 356 4,230

7.4%

313 33 33

313 44 44

313 43 43

212 32 67 43 354 354 4,233 7.4% 313 41 41

204 204

2008-25

3,292 2,862

ER Housing Need Assessment - C2 33% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

116 31 62 59 267 267 4,091

292 264 221 116 31 62 57 530 487 4,147

292 264 221 119 31 62 56 532 489 4,190

292 264 221 119 31 62 56 532 489 4,220

292 264 221 122 31 63 55 534 492 4,228

292 264 221 129 31 63 55 542 499 4,202

292 264 221 127 31 64 55 540 498 4,181

292 264 221 126 31 64 55 540 497 4,189

7.4%

303 -36 -36

307 223 181

310 222 179

312 220 177

313 221 179

311 231 188

309 231 188

310 230 187

1,541 1,243

2016-17

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25

292 264 221 126 31 64 55 540 498 4,198

292 264 221 127 31 65 56 542 500 4,206

292 264 221 134 31 65 56 549 507 4,216

132 31 65 56 285 285 4,230

7.4%

311 230 187

311 231 189

312 237 195

313 -29 -29

669 542

129 31 66 57 283 283 4,230

137 31 66 57 292 292 4,229

136 32 67 57 292 292 4,229

137 32 67 57 293 293 4,230

7.4%

313 -30 -30

313 -21 -21

313 -20 -20

136 32 68 58 293 293 4,233 7.4% 313 -20 -20

-113 -113

2008-25

2,097 1,672

Table 9.6 Glasgow City Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 GC Housing Need Assessment - C2 33% affordability

Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16

2016-17

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25

2008-25

2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2598 2598 2598 2598 2598 2598 2598 3,588 3,709 3,638 3,607 3,561 3,421 3,364 3,357 969 978 987 995 1,003 1,011 1,019 1,028 1,451 1,484 1,520 1,553 1,586 1,618 1,648 1,676 1,651 1,651 1,654 1,655 1,658 1,661 1,663 1,665 7,659 10,665 10,642 10,653 10,651 10,554 10,537 10,569 7,659 10,420 10,397 10,408 10,406 10,309 10,292 10,324 109,756 107,660 106,864 106,898 105,692 104,960 103,359 103,210 6.2% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 6,805 6,298 6,252 6,254 6,183 6,140 6,047 6,038 854 4,367 4,390 4,399 4,468 4,414 4,490 4,531 31,915 854 4,122 4,145 4,154 4,223 4,169 4,245 4,286 30,200

2,843 2,843 2598 3,358 1,036 1,704 1,668 10,609 10,364 101,672 5.9% 5,948 4,661 4,416

2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2598 2598 3,277 3,151 3,153 1,044 1,054 1,067 1,731 1,756 1,780 1,672 1,676 1,682 10,567 10,480 7,682 10,322 10,235 7,682 101,260 100,862 100,461 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5,924 5,900 5,877 4,643 4,580 1,805 15,689 4,398 4,335 1,805 14,954

57,594 55,144

2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16

2016-17

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25

2008-25

2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2598 2598 2598 2598 2598 2598 2598 2,791 2,884 2,830 2,806 2,769 2,661 2,617 2,611 969 978 987 995 1,003 1,011 1,019 1,028 1,451 1,484 1,521 1,556 1,590 1,625 1,658 1,689 1,651 1,691 1,724 1,748 1,766 1,780 1,788 1,793 6,862 9,880 9,905 9,948 9,971 9,920 9,925 9,964 6,862 9,635 9,660 9,703 9,726 9,675 9,680 9,719 109,756 107,660 106,864 106,898 105,692 104,960 103,359 103,210 6.2% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 6,805 6,298 6,252 6,254 6,183 6,140 6,047 6,038 57 3,582 3,653 3,694 3,788 3,780 3,878 3,926 26,360 57 3,337 3,408 3,449 3,543 3,535 3,633 3,681 24,645

2,843 2,843 2598 2,612 1,036 1,719 1,798 10,008 9,763 101,672 5.9% 5,948 4,060 3,815

2,843 2,843 2,843 2,843 2598 2598 2,549 2,451 2,452 1,044 1,054 1,067 1,748 1,776 1,802 1,803 1,807 1,811 9,987 9,931 7,132 9,742 9,686 7,132 101,260 100,862 100,461 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5,924 5,900 5,877 4,063 4,031 1,255 13,409 3,818 3,786 1,255 12,674

47,083 44,633

3,093 1,077 1,803 1,690 7,663 7,663 99,717 5.9% 5,833 1,830 1,830

3,176 1,090 1,825 1,699 7,790 7,790 98,978 5.9% 5,790 2,000 2,000

3,113 1,101 1,847 1,710 7,771 7,771 98,236 5.9% 5,747 2,024 2,024

3,035 1,112 1,868 1,722 7,737 7,737 97,494 5.9% 5,703 2,034 2,034

3,018 1,123 1,888 1,734 7,763 7,763 96,754 5.9% 5,660 2,103 2,103

9,990 9,990

GC Housing Need Assessment - C2 40% affordability

2,406 1,077 1,827 1,817 7,127 7,127 99,717 5.9% 5,833 1,294 1,294

2,470 1,090 1,851 1,823 7,234 7,234 98,978 5.9% 5,790 1,444 1,444

2,421 1,101 1,875 1,833 7,230 7,230 98,236 5.9% 5,747 1,483 1,483

2,360 1,112 1,898 1,843 7,213 7,213 97,494 5.9% 5,703 1,510 1,510

2,348 1,123 1,919 1,854 7,244 7,244 96,754 5.9% 5,660 1,584 1,584

7,314 7,314

Table 9.7 Inverclyde Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 IC Housing Need Assessment C2 - 25% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-2017 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

392 98 50 105 645 645 10,117 5.5% 556 89 89

412 354 276 409 98 50 105 1,017 939 9,984 7.4% 739 278 200

412 354 276 414 99 50 106 1,023 945 9,762 5.9% 576 447 369

412 354 276 401 100 50 106 1,011 933 9,611 5.9% 567 444 366

412 354 276 405 101 50 107 1,017 939 9,710 5.9% 573 444 366

412 354 276 390 101 50 107 1,002 924 9,684 5.9% 571 431 353

412 354 276 391 102 50 107 1,004 926 9,541 5.9% 563 441 363

412 354 276 389 102 50 107 1,003 925 9,324 5.9% 550 452 374

3026 2480

412 354 276 375 103 50 107 990 912 9,305 5.9% 549 441 363

412 354 276 370 104 50 107 985 907 9,288 5.9% 548 437 359

412 354 276 366 105 50 107 983 905 9,271 5.9% 547 436 358

365 106 50 108 628 628 9,254 5.9% 546 82 82

1,395 1,161

363 107 50 108 628 628 9,210 5.9% 543 85 85

367 108 50 108 634 634 9,167 5.9% 541 93 93

349 109 50 109 617 617 9,124 5.9% 538 79 79

349 110 50 109 618 618 9,083 5.9% 536 82 82

335 111 50 110 606 606 9,041 5.9% 533 73 73

410 410

2008-25

4832 4052

IC Housing Need Assessment C2 - 33% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-2017 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

261 98 50 105 515 515 10,117 5.5% 556 -42 -42

412 354 276 273 98 50 112 887 809 9,984 7.4% 739 148 70

412 354 276 276 99 50 117 897 819 9,762 5.9% 576 321 243

412 354 276 267 100 50 122 893 815 9,611 5.9% 567 326 248

412 354 276 270 101 50 125 900 822 9,710 5.9% 573 327 249

412 354 276 260 101 50 127 893 815 9,684 5.9% 571 321 243

412 354 276 260 102 50 129 895 817 9,541 5.9% 563 332 254

412 354 276 259 102 51 130 896 818 9,324 5.9% 550 346 268

2080 1534

412 354 276 250 103 51 130 888 810 9,305 5.9% 549 339 261

412 354 276 247 104 51 130 885 807 9,288 5.9% 548 337 259

412 354 276 244 105 51 130 885 807 9,271 5.9% 547 338 260

243 106 51 131 531 531 9,254 5.9% 546 -15 -15

999 765

242 107 51 131 531 531 9,210 5.9% 543 -12 -12

245 108 51 131 535 535 9,167 5.9% 541 -5 -5

233 109 51 132 525 525 9,124 5.9% 538 -14 -14

232 110 51 132 526 526 9,083 5.9% 536 -10 -10

224 111 51 132 518 518 9,041 5.9% 533 -15 -15

-57 -57

2008-25

3,022 2,242

Table 9.8 North Lanarkshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 NL Housing Need Assessment - C2 25% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-2017 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

0 0 0 1,481 350 187 250 2,268 2,268 45,067 7.5% 3,383 -1,115 -1,115

904 695 570 1,519 353 188 274 3,029 2,904 44,974 7.2% 3,234 -205 -330

904 695 570 1,517 355 190 292 3,049 2,924 44,620 7.2% 3,213 -164 -289

904 695 570 1,529 358 192 308 3,082 2,957 44,032 7.2% 3,170 -88 -213

904 695 570 1,516 360 194 321 3,086 2,961 43,579 7.2% 3,138 -52 -177

904 695 570 1,520 363 196 331 3,105 2,980 43,207 7.2% 3,111 -6 -131

904 695 570 1,510 365 198 339 3,107 2,982 42,784 7.2% 3,080 27 -98

904 695 570 1,515 368 200 346 3,124 2,999 42,477 7.2% 3,058 66 -59

-1,537 -2,412

904 695 570 1,520 370 202 352 3,139 3,014 42,102 7.2% 3,031 108 -17

904 695 570 1,487 372 204 358 3,116 2,991 41,783 7.2% 3,008 108 -17

904 695 570 1,505 377 206 362 3,145 3,020 41,396 7.2% 2,981 164 39

0 0 0 1,468 380 209 367 2,424 2,424 41,047 7.2% 2,955 -531 -531

-152 -527

0 0 0 1,499 385 211 372 2,467 2,467 40,657 7.2% 2,927 -460 -460

0 0 0 1,553 389 213 376 2,531 2,531 40,285 7.2% 2,901 -370 -370

0 0 0 1,515 393 215 382 2,505 2,505 39,932 7.2% 2,875 -370 -370

0 0 0 1,523 397 217 387 2,524 2,524 39,597 7.2% 2,851 -327 -327

0 0 0 1,463 402 219 392 2,476 2,476 39,279 7.2% 2,828 -352 -352

-1,879 -1,879

2008-25

-3,568 -4,818

NL Housing Need Assessment - C2 33% affordability

2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-2017 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25

2008-25

0 0 0 741 350 187 500 1,778 1,778 45,067 7.5% 3,383 -1,605 -1,605

-9,688 -10,938

904 695 570 760 353 189 573 2,570 2,445 44,974 7.2% 3,234 -664 -789

904 695 570 758 355 191 628 2,627 2,502 44,620 7.2% 3,213 -586 -711

904 695 570 765 358 193 669 2,680 2,555 44,032 7.2% 3,170 -490 -615

904 695 570 758 360 196 701 2,710 2,585 43,579 7.2% 3,138 -428 -553

904 695 570 760 363 199 724 2,741 2,616 43,207 7.2% 3,111 -370 -495

904 695 570 755 365 201 742 2,758 2,633 42,784 7.2% 3,080 -322 -447

904 695 570 757 368 204 754 2,778 2,653 42,477 7.2% 3,058 -280 -405

-4,745 -5,620

904 695 570 760 370 207 764 2,796 2,671 42,102 7.2% 3,031 -235 -360

904 695 570 743 372 209 774 2,793 2,668 41,783 7.2% 3,008 -215 -340

904 695 570 753 377 212 779 2,816 2,691 41,396 7.2% 2,981 -165 -290

0 0 0 734 380 214 787 2,115 2,115 41,047 7.2% 2,955 -840 -840

-1,456 -1,831

0 0 0 749 385 217 792 2,143 2,143 40,657 7.2% 2,927 -784 -784

0 0 0 776 389 219 798 2,182 2,182 40,285 7.2% 2,901 -719 -719

0 0 0 757 393 222 810 2,182 2,182 39,932 7.2% 2,875 -693 -693

0 0 0 762 397 224 818 2,201 2,201 39,597 7.2% 2,851 -650 -650

0 0 0 732 402 227 826 2,187 2,187 39,279 7.2% 2,828 -641 -641

-3,487 -3,487

Table 9.9 Renfrewshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 RF Housing Need Assessment - C2 25% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

0 0 0 733 148 110 205 1,196 1,196

878 318 318

632 571 480 750 148 111 203 1,783 1,692 19947 8.4% 1,684 99 8

632 571 480 747 149 111 201 1,779 1,688 19878 8.4% 1,670 109 18

632 571 480 769 150 111 200 1,801 1,710 19856 8.4% 1,668 133 42

632 571 480 755 152 111 200 1,789 1,698 19802 8.4% 1,663 126 35

632 571 480 732 152 112 200 1,767 1,676 19823 8.4% 1,665 102 11

632 571 480 740 153 112 200 1,776 1,685 19730 8.4% 1,657 119 28

632 571 480 756 154 112 200 1,793 1,702 19675 8.4% 1,653 140 49

1,146 509

2016-17 632 571 480 736 155 113 201 1,776 1,685 19621 8.4% 1,648 128 37

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 632 571 480 729 156 113 202 1,771 1,680 19568 8.4% 1,644 127 36

632 571 480 724 157 113 202 1,767 1,676 19514 8.4% 1,639 128 37

715 159 114 203 1,191 1,191 19461 8.4% 1,635 -444 -444

-61 -334

709 160 114 204 1,187 1,187 19377 8.4% 1,628 -441 -441

738 162 114 205 1,219 1,219 19294 8.4% 1,621 -402 -402

721 163 115 207 1,206 1,206 19212 8.4% 1,614 -408 -408

710 165 115 208 1,198 1,198 19129 8.4% 1,607 -409 -409

687 166 115 210 1,178 1,178 19045 8.4% 1,600 -422 -422

2008-25

11,718 2,501 1,806 3,246

-2,081 -2,081

-995 -1,905

RF Housing Need Assessment - C2 33% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

0 0 0 367 148 110 205 830 830

878 -48 -48

632 571 480 375 148 111 221 1,426 1,335 19947 8.4% 1,684 -258 -349

632 571 480 374 149 111 233 1,438 1,347 19878 8.4% 1,670 -232 -323

632 571 480 384 150 111 243 1,459 1,368 19856 8.4% 1,668 -209 -300

632 571 480 377 152 112 251 1,463 1,372 19802 8.4% 1,663 -200 -291

632 571 480 366 152 113 257 1,459 1,368 19823 8.4% 1,665 -206 -297

632 571 480 370 153 113 261 1,468 1,377 19730 8.4% 1,657 -189 -280

632 571 480 378 154 114 264 1,481 1,390 19675 8.4% 1,653 -172 -263

-1,514 -2,151

2016-17 632 571 480 368 155 114 267 1,475 1,384 19621 8.4% 1,648 -173 -264

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 632 571 480 365 156 115 269 1,476 1,385 19568 8.4% 1,644 -168 -259

632 571 480 362 157 116 271 1,477 1,386 19514 8.4% 1,639 -162 -253

357 159 116 272 904 904 19461 8.4% 1,635 -731 -731

-1,234 -1,507

355 160 117 274 906 906 19377 8.4% 1,628 -722 -722

369 162 118 275 924 924 19294 8.4% 1,621 -697 -697

361 163 118 277 919 919 19212 8.4% 1,614 -695 -695

355 165 119 278 917 917 19129 8.4% 1,607 -690 -690

343 166 119 280 908 908 19045 8.4% 1,600 -692 -692

-3,495 -3,495

2008-25

-6,242 -7,152

Table 9.10 South Lanarkshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 SL Housing Need Assessment - C2 25% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Afford test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Afford test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Afford test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing h/holds falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing h/holds falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

0 0 1,360 288 204 328 2,180 2,180 31,499 0 2,142 38 38

1,161 1,040 1,388 290 206 335 3,380 3,259 31,312 0 2,129 1,251 1,130

1,161 1,040 1,382 292 207 341 3,383 3,262 31,104 0 2,115 1,268 1,147

1,161 1,040 1,394 293 209 347 3,404 3,283 31,081 0 2,114 1,290 1,169

1,161 1,040 1,393 295 210 352 3,411 3,290 31,039 0 2,111 1,300 1,179

1,161 1,040 1,372 296 212 357 3,398 3,277 30,921 0 2,103 1,295 1,174

1,161 1,040 1,409 298 214 361 3,443 3,322 30,803 0 2,095 1,348 1,227

1,161 1,040 1,411 300 215 366 3,453 3,332 30,683 0 2,086 1,367 1,246

9,158 8,311

1,161 1,040 1,425 302 217 370 3,475 3,354 30,802 0 2,095 1,380 1,259

1,161 1,040 1,413 304 219 374 3,471 3,350 30,919 0 2,102 1,369 1,248

1,161 1,040 1,415 306 221 378 3,481 3,360 31,036 0 2,110 1,371 1,250

0 0 1,386 309 223 383 2,301 2,301 31,149 0 2,118 183 183

4,302 3,939

0 0 1,411 312 225 388 2,336 2,336 31,124 0 2,116 220 220

0 0 1,459 316 227 393 2,395 2,395 31,098 0 2,115 280 280

0 0 1,417 318 229 399 2,363 2,363 31,073 0 2,113 250 250

0 0 1,427 321 231 404 2,383 2,383 31,044 0 2,111 272 272

0 0 1,400 324 233 409 2,366 2,366 31,016 0 2,109 257 257

1,279 1,279

2008-25

14,739 13,529

SL Housing Need Assessment - C2 33% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Afford test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Afford test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Afford test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing h/holds falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing h/holds falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

0 0 680 288 204 328 1,500 1,500 31,499 0 2,142 -642 -642

1,161 1,040 694 290 206 376 2,727 2,606 31,312 0 2,129 598 477

1,161 1,040 691 292 207 412 2,763 2,642 31,104 0 2,115 648 527

1,161 1,040 697 293 209 439 2,799 2,678 31,081 0 2,114 685 564

1,161 1,040 696 295 211 461 2,824 2,703 31,039 0 2,111 713 592

1,161 1,040 686 296 214 477 2,834 2,713 30,921 0 2,103 731 610

1,161 1,040 704 298 216 489 2,868 2,747 30,803 0 2,095 773 652

1,161 1,040 705 300 218 500 2,884 2,763 30,683 0 2,086 798 677

4,305 3,458

1,161 1,040 713 302 221 509 2,906 2,785 30,802 0 2,095 811 690

1,161 1,040 706 304 223 518 2,912 2,791 30,919 0 2,102 810 689

1,161 1,040 707 306 226 525 2,925 2,804 31,036 0 2,110 815 694

0 0 693 309 228 532 1,762 1,762 31,149 0 2,118 -356 -356

2,079 1,716

0 0 706 312 231 537 1,786 1,786 31,124 0 2,116 -330 -330

0 0 730 316 233 543 1,822 1,822 31,098 0 2,115 -293 -293

0 0 709 318 236 551 1,814 1,814 31,073 0 2,113 -299 -299

0 0 714 321 238 557 1,830 1,830 31,044 0 2,111 -281 -281

0 0 700 324 241 563 1,828 1,828 31,016 0 2,109 -281 -281

-1,484 -1,484

2008-25

4,900 3,690

Table 9.11 West Dunbartonshire Housing Needs Assessment - Scenario C2 Low and High Affordability 2008 - 2025 WD Housing Need Assessment - C2 25% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

480 223 50 60 813 813 16,401 7.5% 1,230 -417 -417

452 409 302 491 225 50 73 1,248 1,141 16,425 7.5% 1,232 16 -91

452 409 302 491 226 50 82 1,258 1,151 16,436 7.5% 1,233 25 -82

452 409 302 482 226 50 89 1,256 1,149 16,439 7.5% 1,233 23 -84

452 409 302 485 228 50 94 1,266 1,159 16,547 7.5% 1,241 25 -82

452 409 302 477 230 50 98 1,264 1,157 16,571 7.5% 1,243 21 -86

452 409 302 489 231 50 101 1,280 1,173 16,629 7.5% 1,247 33 -74

452 409 302 480 233 51 103 1,276 1,169 16,685 7.5% 1,251 25 -82

-249 -998

452 409 302 481 233 51 105 1,279 1,172 16,477 7.5% 1,236 43 -64

452 409 302 479 236 51 106 1,281 1,174 16,270 7.5% 1,220 61 -46

452 409 302 467 236 51 107 1,270 1,163 16,065 7.5% 1,205 65 -42

468 240 51 108 867 867 15,862 7.5% 1,190 -323 -323

-154 -475

465 242 52 109 868 868 15,677 7.5% 1,176 -308 -308

476 244 52 110 882 882 15,644 7.5% 1,173 -291 -291

465 246 52 112 875 875 15,610 7.5% 1,171 -296 -296

444 248 52 113 857 857 15,578 7.5% 1,168 -311 -311

439 251 52 114 856 856 15,551 7.5% 1,166 -310 -310

-1,517 -1,517

2008-25

-1,919 -2,989

WD Housing Need Assessment - C2 33% affordability 2008-09 2009-10 20010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2008-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2016-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2020-25 Traditional HNA Approach Gross Current Housing Need Net Current Housing Need - High Estimate(Affordability test applied) Net Current Housing Need - Low Estimate (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - newly forming households (Affordability test applied) Newly Arising Need - migrants moving into social renting Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (owners) Newly Arising Need - existing households falling into need (private renters) Total Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Total Annual Housing Need (low estimate) Total Social Rented Lettable Stock Social Rented Turnover Rate (new lets as % of all Stock) Total annual supply (new social rented lets) Net Annual Housing Need (high estimate) Net Annual Housing Need (low estimate)

320 223 50 60 653 653 16,401 7.5% 1,230 -577 -577

452 409 302 327 225 50 81 1,092 985 16,425 7.5% 1,232 -140 -247

452 409 302 327 226 50 96 1,108 1,001 16,436 7.5% 1,233 -125 -232

452 409 302 321 226 50 107 1,113 1,006 16,439 7.5% 1,233 -120 -227

452 409 302 323 228 50 116 1,126 1,019 16,547 7.5% 1,241 -115 -222

452 409 302 318 230 51 122 1,130 1,023 16,571 7.5% 1,243 -113 -220

452 409 302 326 231 51 127 1,144 1,037 16,629 7.5% 1,247 -103 -210

452 409 302 320 233 51 130 1,143 1,036 16,685 7.5% 1,251 -108 -215

-1,401 -2,150

452 409 302 320 233 52 133 1,147 1,040 16,477 7.5% 1,236 -89 -196

452 409 302 319 236 52 135 1,151 1,044 16,270 7.5% 1,220 -69 -176

452 409 302 311 236 52 137 1,145 1,038 16,065 7.5% 1,205 -60 -167

312 240 53 138 743 743 15,862 7.5% 1,190 -447 -447

-665 -986

310 242 53 140 745 745 15,677 7.5% 1,176 -431 -431

317 244 53 141 755 755 15,644 7.5% 1,173 -418 -418

310 246 54 143 753 753 15,610 7.5% 1,171 -418 -418

296 248 54 144 742 742 15,578 7.5% 1,168 -426 -426

293 251 54 144 742 742 15,551 7.5% 1,166 -424 -424

-2,118 -2,118

2008-25

-4,183 -5,253

ii)

All Stock/All Households Method to 2016, 2020 and 2025

9.11

Table 9.12 summarises, for each local authority, the results of the All Stock/All Households approach, the methodology consistent with that used for the private sector. The ‘households’ side of the equation includes both the projected number of social rented households and Backlog Need. Tribal/Optimal Economics applied an affordability test to those in Backlog Need to identify the proportion that could meet their needs in the private market. Two levels of affordability were tested, but the measure that has been used is the higher test that produces the ‘Upper Estimate’ in the social rented sector and a correspondingly ‘Lower Estimate’ that can meet their needs in the private sector. The latter figures are included in the private sector demand projections. For the GCV area, there is a shortfall of 66,000 affordable houses at 2016, and additional shortfalls of 30,000 by 2020 and 14,000 by 2025. This produces a cumulative shortfall of 109,000 affordable houses across the GCV area at 2025. Detailed results for local authorities at 2016, 2020 and 2025 are shown in Tables 9.13 – 9.15. The housing stock inputs at local authority level, before dis-aggregation, can be viewed in Section 7.

9.12

The net requirement for additional social rented housing (Tables 9.13 to 9.15, third column) does not represent a full assessment of total new housing required. The projected stock already incorporates assumptions on future new build based on sites identified in either the 2009 Housing Land Audit or the Urban Capacity Study (as shown in Tables 9. 13 to 9.15, fourth column). When these are combined (see fifth column) they identify a total housing requirement, for the GCV area as a whole, rising from nearly 78,000 at 2016 to nearly 129,000 at 2025. It should be noted that Backlog Need is included for the years 2009-19.

9.13

Please note that the requirements for affordable housing, identified via this approach, cannot be added to the private sector housing requirements (in section 8) to obtain an all-tenure housing requirement. Adding these requirements would involve a degree of double counting, as the private sector results are based on the high affordability assumption and the affordable sector results are based on the low affordability assumption. Table 9.12 Summary of GCV Area Cumulative Housing Need Requirement in Accordance with All Stock/All Households Supply/Need Comparison Model 20082025 2016

2020

C2 Low Affordability ED 4,250 5,984 ER 2,740 3,929 GC 20,374 29,670 IC 3,884 5,205 NL 10,255 15,023 RF 5,946 8,593 SL 14,676 20,439 WD 3,536 6,183 65,661 95,026 GCV Area NB. Negative figures are surpluses Backlog Need is included for the years 2009-19

2025 6,744 4,408 33,033 5,576 18,784 9,758 23,780 7,211 109,294

TABLE 9.13 PROJECTION C2 LOW AFFORDABILITY Comparison of Projected Social Rented Households and Housing Stock at 2016 (including Backlog Need)

Effective Social Rented Stock at 2016

Social Rented Households at 2016 + Upper Estimate of Backlog Need

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

5,074 4,150 100,570 9,223 42,245 19,615 30,246 16,648

GCV Total

227,771

Surplus (+) Shortfall (-)

New Build included in Stock Projections (HLA & UCS)

Total New Housing Requirement 2009-16

9,324 6,890 120,944 13,107 52,500 25,561 44,922 20,184

-4,250 -2,740 -20,374 -3,884 -10,255 -5,946 -14,676 -3,536

261 275 7,206 1,252 826 842 766 813

4,511 3,015 27,580 5,136 11,081 6,788 15,442 4,349

293,432

-65,661

12,241

77,902

TABLE 9.14 PROJECTION C2 LOW AFFORDABILITY Comparison of Projected Social Rented Households and Housing Stock at 2020 (including Backlog Need)

Effective Social Rented Stock at 2020

Social Rented Households at 2020 + Upper Estimate of Backlog Need

Surplus (+) Shortfall (-)

New Build included in Stock Projections (HLA & UCS)

Total New Housing Requirement 2009-20

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

5,042 4,190 98,770 9,154 40,814 19,405 30,709 15,824

11,026 8,119 128,440 14,359 55,837 27,998 51,148 22,007

-5,984 -3,929 -29,670 -5,205 -15,023 -8,593 -20,439 -6,183

335 395 9,168 1,686 1,462 962 1,897 1,091

6,319 4,324 38,838 6,891 16,485 9,555 22,336 7,274

GCV Total

223,908

318,934

-95,026

16,996

112,022

TABLE 9.15 PROJECTION C2 LOW AFFORDABILITY Comparison of Projected Social Rented Households and Housing Stock at 2025 (including Backlog Need)

Effective Social Rented Stock at 2025

Social Rented Households at 2025 + Upper Estimate of Backlog Need

Surplus (+) Shortfall (-)

New Build included in Stock Projections (HLA & UCS)

Total New Housing Requirement 2009-25

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

4,937 4,195 95,102 8,941 39,043 18,992 30,573 15,514

11,681 8,603 128,135 14,517 57,827 28,750 54,353 22,725

-6,744 -4,408 -33,033 -5,576 -18,784 -9,758 -23,780 -7,211

335 473 9,727 2,075 1,939 962 2,587 1,527

7,079 4,881 42,760 7,651 20,723 10,720 26,367 8,738

GCV Total

217,297

326,591

-109,294

19,625

128,919

9.0

AffordableSector

Intermediate Sector

9.14

In undertaking their Affordability Study, Tribal/Optimal Economics were also asked to identify “of those households unable to meet their housing need in the open market, how many could afford to meet their need using intermediate housing products”. For the purposes of the HNDA the HMPCG defined the Intermediate Sector as subsidised low cost home ownership (LCHO). Tribal/Optimal Economics in their study identified the Scottish Government’s Low Cost Initiative for First Time Buyers (LIFT) scheme as the most appropriate way to explore ‘intermediate housing’. LIFT provides a range of assistance including new supply, shared equity and open market shared equity.

9.15

Tribal/Optimal Economics defined the intermediate sector as those who could afford low cost home ownership products if they were available; therefore the requirement for this sector can only be measured as potential rather than an actual figure.

9.16

Tribal/Optimal Economics defines the intermediate sector as those newly-forming households that could access low cost home ownership products if they were available, but excluding those who could afford either owner-occupation or private renting. Affordable housing needs can therefore be expressed in terms of the minimum and maximum contribution that social renting and LCHO products could make. The intermediate sector can therefore be regarded as a potential sector. The minimum level would assume that all of those who could potentially meet their needs in low cost home ownership products do so because there is no supply constraint, they have a desire to so and the household has unrestricted access to mortgage finance. The maximum social rented figure assumes that there is restricted access to LCHO and therefore those households would have to be housed in the social rented sector.

9.17

Table 9.16 shows the maximum potential number of households that have been assessed as being unable to access market housing (private rented and owner occupation) but who could afford LCHO up to 2016. This identified that under Planning scenario C2 (low affordability) at 2016 the ‘intermediate sector’ could range from zero to 27,000 households if there was no constraint on supply, a desire for the LCHO product and unrestricted access to mortgage finance. Under Planning scenario C2 (high affordability) the range would reduce to a smaller range: from zero to 5,500 households. The HMPCG are in the process of considering the implications of these results. Table 9.16 Maximum potential LCHO 2016 by Local Authority (Tribal/Optimal Economics) – Planning Scenario (C2) Local Authority Low East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCVSDPA - refers to new households

Affordability 786 659 3,138 2,127 7,567 3,738 6,942 2,152 27,109

High Affordability 0 0 0 1,064 1,514 747 1,388 861 5,574

9.18 • • •

•

• •

These estimates for a potential intermediate sector should be treated with caution as identified by Tribal/Optimal Economics: The intermediate sector is relatively new so limited statistical information is available Supply is limited and dependant on a degree of Scottish Government subsidy There is a lack of real understanding of the choices people will make; even if intermediate products are available households may not choose to take up the product. The Tribal/Optimal Economics approach is limited, as it focuses on new households only. Intermediate sector housing may be attractive to existing households. Thus it could free up currently occupied social rented or private rented houses, as well as meeting some of the housing requirements of new households. Access to mortgage finance may hinder households moving into this sector. Access to wealth (i.e. initial deposit) has not been taken into account in the analysis.

10.0

Reconciliation of Methodologies for the Affordable Sector

10.1

The assessment of housing requirements in the GCV area has identified a surplus of 10,000 units in the private sector at 2025.

10.2

For the affordable sector, the two different methodologies used have produced two different sets of results (ref Section 9). The first approach (Housing Needs Assessment Model) is consistent with HNDA Guidance and the approach traditionally undertaken in LHSs (this approach is not consistent with the private sector approach). The second approach (All Stock/All Households) is consistent with the methodology adopted for the private sector, but is not in line with the HNDA Guidance or housing authority practice.

10.3

To help explain why these methodologies provide different results, Tribal/Optimal Economics were asked to consider both approaches to help reconcile the results.

10.4

Tribal/Optimal Economics concluded that the difference in the results could almost entirely be attributed to the fact that the All Stock/All Households approach uses all of the Tribal/Optimal Economics inputs to undertake the Supply/Need comparison, i.e. we take account of inflows to the affordable sector as well as outflows from the sector. In the Housing Needs Assessment model the inflows from Tribal/Optimal Economics’ work are included but a turnover (re-let) rate is then applied which is a proxy for outflows. Tribal/Optimal Economics replaced the turnover (re-let) rate in the HNA model with the outflows from their model and the resultant net need figures were very close to the All Stock/All Households results.

10.5

HMPCG, in line with the HNDA Guidance, intend to progress the Housing Needs Assessment Model through the LHS process and as such the results of the HNA model are the preferred approach for assessing affordable housing requirements.

10.6

When considering the all tenure results of the GCV HNA it is important to note that: • Private sector is based on the planning scenario (C2) High affordability PRS • Affordable sector is based on the planning scenario (C2) Low affordability PRS • When totalled by tenure using Tribal/Optimal Economics’ figures then the total private sector demand and social rented sector need exceeds the overall number of households from the household projections. This is because there is an overlap of households in high and low affordability scenarios. This allows greater flexibility. • Backlog Need, on advice from the CHMA, is in addition to the household projections i.e. there are 72,000 households accounted for in addition to the GCV household projections. Of these 6,000 are estimated to be able to meet their needs in the private market and have been added to the private sector supply/demand comparison.

Annex A

Table A1 - Net migration by Council area for 3 Health Board Areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008

1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

East Dunbartonshire 47 85 -3 -173 -799 -298 -784 -571 -353 -659 -847 -594 -7 66 -817 -104 -424 -482 -19 -385 -949 -246 -340 -518 -485 -484 -118

East Renfrewshire 29 -214 97 434 84 431 1,225 676 519 -124 -22 220 -107 657 -227 308 195 86 413 264 150 19 -61 -84 -361 -43 -72

Glasgow City

Inverclyde

North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire

-8,386 -8,494 -6,591 -7,916 -6,001 -8,415 -11,298 -7,795 -7,281 -1,699 -7,043 -4,849 -3,402 -7,368 -3,770 -7,713 -2,830 -2,445 -4,516 2,695 -214 982 1,343 1,626 2,169 1,414 1,903

-624 -787 -1,237 -1,075 -1,043 -1,005 -1,349 -1,028 -905 -615 -512 -795 -376 -551 -1,378 -421 -370 -363 -383 -240 -186 -295 -339 -169 -403 -317 -189

-2,624 -1,618 -2,391 -3,011 -3,817 -2,276 -3,597 -1,207 -530 -2,815 -1976 -2012 -834 -870 -1433 -360 -862 -547 -901 -557 -97 262 521 150 -35 347 212

-1,069 -2,097 -1,777 -679 -561 -1,932 -1,355 -151 447 -1,571 -566 -67 109 922 -72 -718 -578 -778 -545 -767 -668 -611 -195 -484 -272 60 142

Source: General Register Office for Scotland Migration Estimates - CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

West South DunbartonLanarkshire shire -2,191 -1,331 -2,097 -1,431 -1,653 -1,253 -2,294 -1,334 -1,864 -1,260 -988 -966 -1,389 -715 -204 -1,258 -272 -32 -980 -525 43 -386 177 -29 913 -277 -547 -1002 -191 -475 -447 -61 -1047 -244 -661 -380 -170 -344 197 -453 14 -281 1158 -293 2500 -193 981 -405 1249 -107 1675 -95 428 -147

GCV Structure Plan Area -16,149 -16,653 -14,808 -16,048 -15,261 -15,449 -19,262 -11,538 -8,407 -8,988 -11,309 -7,949 -3,981 -8,693 -8,363 -9,516 -6,160 -5,570 -6,465 754 -2,231 976 3,236 1,097 1,755 2,557 2,159

Argyll and Bute

3 Health Board areas

112 841 636 564 -57 368 521 341 -302 53 -1,835 -304 988 227 107 293 332 347 -163 553 158 678 239 64 819 297 -514

-16,037 -15,812 -14,172 -15,484 -15,318 -15,081 -18,741 -11,197 -8,709 -8,935 -13,144 -8,253 -2,993 -8,466 -8,256 -9,223 -5,828 -5,223 -6,628 1,307 -2,073 1,654 3,475 1,161 2,574 2,854 1,645

19 81 19 /82 82 19 /83 83 19 /84 84 19 /85 85 19 /86 86 19 /87 87 19 /88 88 19 /89 89 19 /90 90 19 /91 91 19 /92 92 19 /93 93 19 /94 94 19 /95 95 19 /96 96 19 /97 97 19 /98 98 19 /99 99 20 /00 00 20 /01 01 20 /02 02 20 /03 03 20 /04 04 20 /05 05 20 /06 06 20 /07 07 /0 8

net migration

Chart 1 - Net Migration Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981-2008

5,000

-5,000

-10,000 GCV area trend in migration

-15,000

-20,000

-25,000

year

Table A2.1 - Net Migration by Component for 3 Health Board Areas in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area in 1981-2008

Year 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

net migration Net migration with rest of Armed Forces with rest of UK Scotland -5,637 -6,133 -5,646 -5,406 -4,997 -5,238 -4,617 -945 -6,337 -2,017 -4,355 -3,865 -3,093 -2,697 -1,859 -3,391 -1,744 -2,185 -2,028 -1,575 -2,466 -2,780 -2,697 -2,911 -1,857 -1,950 -1,610

-4,503 -5,805 -7,572 -8,927 -7,653 -8,187 -9,425 -5,719 -3,111 1,426 -1,001 -894 -206 -2,382 -3,556 -4,226 -1,890 -2,291 -4,077 -1,075 -1,204 -1,198 891 751 -136 696 1,785

216 -48 3 -158 -106 -216 -385 -584 -627 -94 261 335 426 418 284 214 0 -81 56 157 23 40 161 263 159 245 179

Net migration within UK (source: NHSCR) -9,924 -11,986 -13,215 -14,491 -12,756 -13,641 -14,427 -7,248 -10,075 -685 -5,095 -4,424 -2,873 -4,661 -5,131 -7,403 -3,634 -4,557 -6,049 -2,493 -3,647 -3,938 -1,645 -1,897 -1,834 -1,009 354

Derived Total migration estimate of net 3 Health Board international areas migration -6,113 -16,037 -3,826 -15,812 -957 -14,172 -993 -15,484 -2,562 -15,318 -1,440 -15,081 -4,314 -18,741 -3,949 -11,197 1,366 -8,709 -8,250 -8,935 -8,049 -13,144 -3,829 -8,253 -120 -2,993 -3,805 -8,466 -3,125 -8,256 -1,820 -9,223 -2,194 -5,828 -666 -5,223 -579 -6,628 3,800 1,307 1,574 -2,073 5,592 1,654 5,120 3,475 3,058 1,161 4,408 2,574 3,863 2,854 1,291 1,645

Source: General Register Office for Scotland NHSCR Tables - CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

Table A2.2 - Trend coefficients by component for different base periods Base period Rest Scotland Rest UK Armed forces Within UK International Total

1981-2008

1991-2008

154 320 14 488 330 818

96 194 -11 279 631 910

net migration

Chart 2 - Net Migration within UK for Three Health Board areas 1981-2008

2,000

-2,000

-4,000

-6,000

-8,000 Net migration within UK trend for base 1981-2008 trend for base 1991-2008

-10,000

-12,000

-14,000

-16,000

year

Table A3.1 - Net Migration (excluding asylum seekers) for Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area and Rest of Scotland in 2001-2008 Glasgow and the Rest of Scotland Clyde Valley area

Year

Scotland

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 averages 2001-06 2003-08

-6,992 5,929 22,712 16,579 20,595 25,524 19,353

-5,888 -2,224 936 -1,003 -45 1,857 1,159

-1,104 8,153 21,776 17,582 20,640 23,667 18,194

11,765 20,953

-1,645 581

13,409 20,372

Source: General Register Office for Scotland CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED

Table A3.2 - Derivation of migration assumptions HNDA projection GROS 2006-base long term migration assumptions Principal Projection Scotland GCV area net migration 8,500 -1,950 asylum seekers 600 600 net migration adjusted 7,900 -2,550 average 2001-06 11,765 -1,645 difference -3,865 -905

GROS 2006-base long term migration assumptions High Migration Variant Rest of Scotland Scotland GCV area 10,450 net migration 17,000 150 0 asylum seekers 600 600 10,450 net migration adjusted 16,400 -450 13,409 average 2001-06 11,765 -1,645 -2,959 difference 4,635 1,195

GROS 2008-base long term migration assumptions Principal Projection with estimated split GCV area/Rest of Scotland Scotland GCV area Rest of Scotland net migration 12,000 -1,056 13,056 asylum seekers 600 600 0 net migration adjusted 11,400 -1,656 13,056 average 2003-08 20,953 581 20,372 difference -9,553 -2,237 -7,316

Rest of Scotland 16,850 0 16,850 13,409 3,441

GROS 2008-base long term migration assumptions High Migration Variant with estimated split GCV area/Rest of Scotland Scotland GCV area Rest of Scotland net migration 20,500 1,044 19,456 asylum seekers 600 600 0 net migration adjusted 19,900 444 19,456 average 2003-08 20,953 581 20,372 difference -1,053 -137 -916

Table A4 - Derivation of Net Migration Assumptions by Council Area

1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

East Dunbartonshire -847 -594 -7 66 -817 -104 -424 -482 -19 -385 -949 -246 -340 -518 -485 -484 -118

East Renfrewshire -22 220 -107 657 -227 308 195 86 413 264 150 19 -61 -84 -361 -43 -72

West South DunbartonLanarkshire shire 43 -386 177 -29 913 -277 -547 -1002 -191 -475 -447 -61 -1047 -244 -661 -380 -170 -344 197 -453 14 -281 1158 -293 2500 -193 981 -405 1249 -107 1675 -95 428 -147

Glasgow City

Inverclyde

North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire

-7,043 -4,849 -3,402 -7,368 -3,770 -7,713 -2,830 -2,445 -4,516 -2,810 -3,871 -2,218 -957 -474 369 714 903

-512 -795 -376 -551 -1,378 -421 -370 -363 -383 -240 -186 -295 -339 -169 -403 -317 -189

-1976 -2012 -834 -870 -1433 -360 -862 -547 -901 -557 -97 262 521 150 -35 347 212

-566 -67 109 922 -72 -718 -578 -778 -545 -767 -668 -611 -195 -484 -272 60 142

325,520 -65

169,800 -412

310,090 737

90,940 -270

-359

834

-241

1,755,310 -1,599 -1,050 -1,050

50 250 200

-500 -350 150

1,050 1,350 300

-300 -200 100

-1,950 150 2,100

237

-209

1,134

-141

1,050

migration assumptions lower migration scenario (A) population 2008 104,720 89,220 584,240 80,780 aver. mig. 1998-08 -403 31 -931 -288 migration assumption by Council area scenario A -370 59 -747 -263 planning scenario (C) longer term migration assumption GROS (2006-base) principal -550 -100 -1,300 -300 high migration -450 0 -200 -250 difference 100 100 1,100 50 migration assumption by Council area for years 2008-2018 scenario C -270 159 353 -213

GCV Area -11,309 -7,949 -3,981 -8,693 -8,363 -9,516 -6,160 -5,570 -6,465 -4,751 -5,888 -2,224 936 -1,003 -45 1,857 1,159

Table A5 - Net migration assumptions by Council area for Scenarios A and C - after adjustment for initial years East East Glasgow Dunbarton- RenfrewCity shire shire net migration lower migration scenario (A) 2008/09 -354 59 250 2009/10 -337 59 586 2010/11 -337 59 240 2011/12 -370 59 13 2012/13 -370 59 -555 2013/14 -370 59 -664 2014-2025 -370 59 -747 net migration planning scenario (C) 2008/09 -270 159 353 2009/10 -270 159 353 2010/11 -270 159 353 2011/12 -270 159 353 2012/13 -270 159 353 2013/14 -270 159 353 2014/15 -270 159 353 2015/16 -270 159 353 2016/17 -270 159 353 2017/18 -270 159 353 2018/19 -253 173 446 2019/20 -237 187 539 2020/21 -220 202 632 2021/22 -203 216 724 2022/23 -187 230 817 2023/24 -170 244 910 2024/25 -153 258 1,003

West South DunbartonLanarkshire shire

Inverclyde

North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire

-263 -263 -263 -263 -263 -263 -263

37 37 37 37 37 37 37

-297 -259 -260 -264 -340 -342 -359

896 901 900 882 853 834 834

-179 -174 -175 -194 -222 -241 -241

150 550 200 -100 -800 -950 -1,050

-213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -213 -200 -187 -174 -162 -149 -136 -123

237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 237 289 340 392 444 496 547 599

-209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -209 -182 -155 -128 -101 -74 -47 -20

1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,134 1,183 1,233 1,282 1,331 1,380 1,430 1,479

-141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -141 -127 -112 -98 -83 -69 -54 -40

1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,329 1,608 1,888 2,166 2,444 2,724 3,003

GCV Area

Table A6 - Comparison GROS and SDP migration assumptions with assumptions 2006 Plan East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire

Migration assumptions for 2006 Plan 2008/09 -29 2009/10 -5 2010/11 18 2011/12 42 2012/13 66 2013/14 89 2014/15 113 2015/16 137 2016/17 160 2017/18 184 annual average 2008-2018 2006 Plan 78 GROS principal projection -545 high migration variant -445 SDP lower migration (A) -362 planning scenario (C) -270 difference with 2006 Plan GROS principal projection -623 high migration variant -523 SDP lower migration (A) -439 planning scenario (C) -348

West South DunbartonLanarkshire shire

Glasgow City

Inverclyde

North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire

160 180 200 219 239 259 279 298 318 338

-672 -145 -17 110 237 364 492 619 747 874

-39 -21 -2 16 35 53 72 90 109 127

-52 19 90 161 231 302 373 444 515 586

-27 11 49 87 125 163 200 238 276 314

158 225 291 358 424 491 558 624 691 758

-27 -7 14 34 55 75 96 116 137 157

-528 257 643 1,027 1,412 1,796 2,183 2,566 2,953 3,338

249

261

267

144

458

1,565

-120 -45

-995 205

-305 -255

45 230

-465 -330

1,070 1,355

-280 -180

-1,595 535

59 159

-312 353

-263 -213

37 237

-320 -209

860 1,134

-215 -141

-515 1,050

-369 -294

-1,256 -56

-349 -299

-222 -37

-609 -474

612 897

-345 -245

-3,160 -1,030

-190 -90

-573 92

-307 -257

-230 -30

-463 -353

402 676

-280 -206

-2,080 -515

GCV Area

Table A7 - Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area Lower migration scenario (A) Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 1,755,310 104,720 89,220 584,240 2016 1,769,690 102,043 90,618 591,298 2020 1,775,276 100,594 91,597 593,850 2025 1,778,181 98,488 92,974 595,415 annual change 2008-2016 1,798 -335 175 882 2016-2020 1,397 -362 245 638 2020-2025 581 -421 275 313 Planning scenario (C) Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 1,755,310 104,720 89,220 584,240 2016 1,782,088 102,823 91,501 596,036 2020 1,798,519 101,914 93,042 603,933 2025 1,822,048 100,869 95,482 614,795 annual change 2008-2016 3,347 -237 285 1,475 2016-2020 4,108 -227 385 1,974 2020-2025 4,706 -209 488 2,172 GCV Structure Plan Alteration 2006 Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 1,734,944 105,832 90,324 570,111 2016 1,741,084 105,748 92,060 575,785 2018 1,747,684 106,044 92,724 579,611 annual change 2008-2016 2016-2018

768 3,300

-11 148

217 332

80,780 77,754 76,222 74,038

North Lanarkshire 325,520 331,727 334,489 337,131

-378 -383 -437

776 691 528

Inverclyde

80,780 78,213 77,000 75,510

North Lanarkshire 325,520 333,452 337,321 342,563

-321 -303 -298

992 967 1,048

Inverclyde

80,744 78,817 78,571

North Lanarkshire 322,648 324,736 325,937

-241 -123

261 601

Inverclyde

709 1,913

169,800 167,801 166,627 164,793

South Lanarkshire 310,090 318,947 323,155 327,815

West Dunbartonshire 90,940 89,502 88,742 87,527

-250 -294 -367

1,107 1,052 932

-180 -190 -243

169,800 168,671 168,298 168,112

South Lanarkshire 310,090 321,250 327,053 334,868

West Dunbartonshire 90,940 90,142 89,958 89,849

-141 -93 -37

1,395 1,451 1,563

-100 -46 -22

169,427 168,444 168,579

South Lanarkshire 304,893 304,839 305,358

West Dunbartonshire 90,965 90,655 90,860

-123 68

-7 260

-39 103

Renfrewshire

Table A8.1 - Population Projection Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Component - HNDA lower migration scenario (A)

year 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

annual total change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 annual natural change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 annual net migration 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025

population at start 1,755,310 1,757,210 1,759,706 1,761,956 1,764,008 1,765,418 1,766,803 1,768,208 1,769,690 1,771,194 1,772,663 1,774,034 1,775,276 1,776,354 1,777,182 1,777,815 1,778,128

births

deaths

21,166 20,740 20,565 20,443 20,353 20,280 20,251 20,238 20,192 20,108 19,991 19,846 19,678 19,499 19,311 19,117 18,927

19,402 18,791 18,536 18,302 18,108 17,943 17,814 17,711 17,641 17,588 17,556 17,549 17,566 17,606 17,660 17,731 17,823

natural change 1,764 1,949 2,030 2,141 2,245 2,337 2,436 2,527 2,551 2,521 2,435 2,297 2,112 1,892 1,650 1,386 1,105

Glasgow and Clyde Valley

East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire

Glasgow City

Inverclyde

1,798 1,397 581

-335 -362 -421

175 245 275

882 638 313

-378 -383 -437

776 691 528

-250 -294 -367

1,107 1,052 932

-180 -190 -243

2,178 2,451 1,629

25 9 -53

116 187 216

1,085 1,384 1,062

-115 -118 -176

739 653 491

59 68 -8

241 217 98

28 52 -2

-381 -1,054 -1,048

-360 -371 -369

59 58 60

-203 -746 -749

-263 -265 -261

37 38 37

-309 -361 -358

866 835 834

-208 -242 -241

net migration total change 136 547 220 -89 -835 -952 -1,031 -1,045 -1,047 -1,052 -1,064 -1,055 -1,034 -1,064 -1,017 -1,073 -1,052

1,900 2,496 2,250 2,052 1,410 1,385 1,405 1,482 1,504 1,469 1,371 1,242 1,078 828 633 313 53

population at end 1,757,210 1,759,706 1,761,956 1,764,008 1,765,418 1,766,803 1,768,208 1,769,690 1,771,194 1,772,663 1,774,034 1,775,276 1,776,354 1,777,182 1,777,815 1,778,128 1,778,181

North South Lanarkshire Renfrewshire Lanarkshire

West Dunbartonshire

Table A8.2 Population Projection Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Component - HNDA planning scenario (C)

year 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

annual total change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 annual natural change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025 annual net migration 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025

population at start 1,755,310 1,758,128 1,761,145 1,764,320 1,767,560 1,770,985 1,774,557 1,778,253 1,782,088 1,786,023 1,789,985 1,794,140 1,798,519 1,803,026 1,807,671 1,812,391 1,817,191

births

deaths

21,166 20,775 20,625 20,534 20,483 20,465 20,493 20,540 20,552 20,523 20,459 20,371 20,264 20,148 20,027 19,905 19,790

19,402 18,793 18,537 18,308 18,116 17,958 17,836 17,740 17,677 17,631 17,606 17,608 17,634 17,685 17,751 17,834 17,941

natural change 1,764 1,981 2,087 2,226 2,367 2,508 2,657 2,800 2,875 2,892 2,853 2,764 2,629 2,463 2,276 2,071 1,849

Glasgow and Clyde Valley

East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire

Glasgow City

Inverclyde

3,347 4,108 4,706

-237 -227 -209

285 385 488

1,475 1,974 2,172

-321 -303 -298

992 967 1,048

-141 -93 -37

1,395 1,451 1,563

-100 -46 -22

2,299 2,846 2,258

33 29 -22

127 215 257

1,121 1,553 1,355

-108 -99 -150

755 692 550

68 95 37

263 275 184

40 86 47

1,049 1,262 2,448

-270 -256 -187

158 170 231

354 422 817

-213 -204 -148

237 275 499

-209 -188 -74

1,132 1,175 1,379

-140 -132 -69

net migration total change 1,054 1,036 1,088 1,014 1,058 1,064 1,039 1,035 1,060 1,070 1,302 1,615 1,878 2,182 2,444 2,729 3,008

2,818 3,017 3,175 3,240 3,425 3,572 3,696 3,835 3,935 3,962 4,155 4,379 4,507 4,645 4,720 4,800 4,857

population at end 1,758,128 1,761,145 1,764,320 1,767,560 1,770,985 1,774,557 1,778,253 1,782,088 1,786,023 1,789,985 1,794,140 1,798,519 1,803,026 1,807,671 1,812,391 1,817,191 1,822,048

North South Lanarkshire Renfrewshire Lanarkshire

West Dunbartonshire

Table A8.3 Population Projection Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Component - 2006 Structure Plan Alteration population at start 1,734,944 1,733,427 1,732,887 1,732,928 1,733,511 1,734,622 1,736,250 1,738,399 1,741,084 1,744,200

births

deaths

18,010 18,060 18,151 18,254 18,353 18,448 18,579 18,726 18,821 18,867

18,997 18,857 18,753 18,699 18,654 18,618 18,613 18,608 18,658 18,722

natural change -987 -797 -602 -445 -301 -170 -34 118 163 145

Glasgow and Clyde Valley

East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire

Glasgow City

Inverclyde

annual total change 2008-2016 2016-2018

768 3,300

-11 148

217 332

709 1,913

-241 -123

261 601

-123 68

-7 260

-39 103

annual natural change 2008-2016 2016-2018

-402 154

-64 -24

-12 4

586 1,103

-266 -241

65 50

-229 -228

-398 -465

-83 -45

annual net migration 2008-2016 2016-2018

1,170 3,146

54 172

229 328

124 811

26 118

196 551

106 295

391 725

45 147

year 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

net migration total change -530 257 643 1,028 1,412 1,798 2,183 2,567 2,953 3,339

-1,517 -540 41 583 1,111 1,628 2,149 2,685 3,116 3,484

population at end 1,733,427 1,732,887 1,732,928 1,733,511 1,734,622 1,736,250 1,738,399 1,741,084 1,744,200 1,747,684

North South Lanarkshire Renfrewshire Lanarkshire

West Dunbartonshire

Table A9 - Population Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Age

lower migration scenario (A) YEAR total 0 to 15 2008 1,755,310 315,002 2016 1,769,690 311,393 2020 1,775,276 314,967 2025 1,778,181 309,168 annual change 2008-2016 1,798 -451 2016-2020 1,397 894 2020-2025 581 -1,160 planning scenario (C) YEAR total 2008 1,755,310 2016 1,782,088 2020 1,798,519 2025 1,822,048 annual change 2008-2016 3,347 2016-2020 4,108 2020-2025 4,706

16 to 29 345,578 323,306 304,436 293,185

30 to 44 369,575 348,797 356,926 365,430

45 to 59 356,558 381,763 363,095 328,871

60 to 74 244,304 264,269 284,921 308,246

75+ 124,293 140,162 150,931 173,281

-2,784 -4,718 -2,250

-2,597 2,032 1,701

3,151 -4,667 -6,845

2,496 5,163 4,665

1,984 2,692 4,470

0 to 15 315,002 313,425 319,575 318,931

16 to 29 345,578 326,953 310,063 302,449

30 to 44 369,575 353,680 366,097 381,795

45 to 59 356,558 383,007 365,691 334,712

60 to 74 244,304 264,730 285,888 310,230

75+ 124,293 140,293 151,205 173,931

-197 1,538 -129

-2,328 -4,223 -1,523

-1,987 3,104 3,140

3,306 -4,329 -6,196

2,553 5,290 4,868

2,000 2,728 4,545

16 to 29 336,790 316,119 307,291

30 to 44 366,314 344,047 348,375

45 to 59 355,870 384,515 379,897

60 to 74 246,099 266,498 276,330

75+ 123,692 139,015 143,362

-2,584 -4,414

-2,783 2,164

3,581 -2,309

2,550 4,916

1,915 2,174

GCV Structure Plan Alteration 2006 YEAR GCV 0 to 15 2008 1,734,944 306,179 2016 1,741,084 290,890 2018 1,747,681 292,426 annual change 2008-2016 2016-2018

768 3,299

-1,911 768

Table A10 - Estimated Annual Changes by Household Type 2001-2008

East Dunbartonshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference East Renfrewshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Glasgow City based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Inverclyde based on headship rates based on SHS data difference North Lanarkshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Renfrewshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference South Lanarkshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference West Dunbartonshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Glasgow and Clyde Valley based on headship rates based on SHS data difference

2+ adults with child(ren)

total households

1 adult

2 adults

3+ adults

1 adult with child(ren)

229 108 -121

154 311 157

-37 -31 6

28 68 40

-258 -340 -82

116 116 0

160 250 90

102 -155 -258

-31 73 104

32 -60 -92

-155 0 155

107 107 0

1,822 174 -1,649

-260 1,036 1,296

-144 963 1,107

520 -726 -1,246

-686 -193 493

1,253 1,253 0

213 106 -107

26 19 -6

-52 -43 10

22 -75 -97

-195 6 201

14 14 0

1,176 723 -452

520 890 370

-130 -122 8

306 113 -193

-528 -262 266

1,343 1,343 0

508 534 26

151 -99 -250

-106 -38 68

86 -159 -245

-320 80 400

319 319 0

1,163 848 -315

608 784 176

-87 168 255

277 -122 -399

-374 -91 283

1,587 1,587 0

295 217 -78

65 -58 -123

-56 196 252

38 -33 -71

-180 -160 19

163 163 0

5,567 2,961 -2,606

1,365 2,728 1,363

-644 1,167 1,811

1,310 -994 -2,303

-2,696 -961 1,736

4,902 4,902 0

Table A11 - Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Council area Lower migration scenario (A) Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 804,709 43,227 35,988 284,533 2016 854,917 44,065 37,349 307,175 2020 876,897 44,381 38,159 316,360 2025 901,048 44,693 39,192 326,281 annual change 2008-2016 6,276 105 170 2,830 2016-2020 5,495 79 203 2,296 2020-2025 4,830 62 207 1,984 Planning scenario (C) Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 804,709 43,227 35,988 284,533 2016 859,147 44,607 37,789 304,798 2020 885,452 45,260 38,872 314,085 2025 918,408 46,149 40,377 325,398 annual change 2008-2016 6,805 173 225 2,533 2016-2020 6,576 163 271 2,322 2020-2025 6,591 178 301 2,263 GCV Structure Plan Alteration 2006 Glasgow and East Dunbar- East RenfrewYEAR Glasgow City Clyde Valley tonshire shire 2008 808,635 43,551 36,812 288,137 2016 869,521 46,194 39,530 313,365 2018 885,508 46,916 40,239 320,050 annual change 2008-2016 2016-2018

7,611 7,994

330 361

340 355

37,156 37,632 37,696 37,560

North Lanarkshire 143,715 154,186 159,025 164,655

60 16 -27

1,309 1,210 1,126

Inverclyde

37,156 37,846 38,055 38,231

North Lanarkshire 143,715 155,806 161,615 169,057

86 52 35

1,511 1,452 1,488

Inverclyde

38,117 39,776 40,150

North Lanarkshire 143,686 155,367 158,447

207 187

1,460 1,540

Inverclyde

3,154 3,343

79,037 81,077 81,883 82,554

South Lanarkshire 138,354 149,154 154,394 160,467

West Dunbartonshire 42,699 44,279 44,999 45,646

255 202 134

1,350 1,310 1,215

198 180 129

79,037 81,912 83,314 85,036

South Lanarkshire 138,354 151,581 158,332 166,915

West Dunbartonshire 42,699 44,808 45,919 47,245

359 351 344

1,653 1,688 1,717

264 278 265

79,187 83,256 84,316

South Lanarkshire 136,578 146,624 149,185

West Dunbartonshire 42,567 45,409 46,205

509 530

1,256 1,281

355 398

Renfrewshire

Table A12 - Household Projections Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area by Household Type and by Age of Representative Lower migration scenario (A) YEAR

Total

2008 804,709 2016 854,918 2020 876,899 2025 901,052 annual change 2008-2016 6,276 2016-2020 5,495 2020-2025 4,831 Planning scenario (C)

one adult

two+ adults

305,517 358,093 382,088 410,370

284,696 293,283 294,812 294,123

6,572 5,999 5,656

1,073 382 -138

YEAR

Total

one adult

two+ adults

2008 2016 2020 2025 annual change 2008-2016 2016-2020 2020-2025

804,709 859,147 885,452 918,408

305,517 359,174 384,730 416,564

284,696 294,624 297,362 298,975

6,805 6,576 6,591

6,707 6,389 6,367

1,241 685 323

one adult and two+ adults child(ren) and child(ren) 68,721 145,775 78,773 124,769 83,701 116,298 89,470 107,089 1,257 1,232 1,154

-2,626 -2,118 -1,842

one adult and two+ adults child(ren) and child(ren) 68,721 145,775 79,422 125,927 85,037 118,323 92,234 110,635 1,338 1,404 1,439

-2,481 -1,901 -1,538

age 16-29

age 30-44

age 45-59

age 60-74

age 75+

102,942 104,858 102,823 101,166

228,169 228,595 240,095 252,689

222,231 247,395 239,682 222,400

159,594 171,142 183,628 197,939

91,773 102,928 110,671 126,858

240 -509 -331

53 2,875 2,519

3,146 -1,928 -3,456

1,444 3,122 2,862

1,394 1,936 3,237

age 16-29

age 30-44

age 45-59

age 60-74

age 75+

102,942 105,887 104,537 104,176

228,169 230,978 244,997 262,372

222,231 247,856 240,821 225,338

159,594 171,404 184,155 198,979

91,773 103,022 110,942 127,543

368 -338 -72

351 3,505 3,475

3,203 -1,759 -3,097

1,476 3,188 2,965

1,406 1,980 3,320

Annex B

Table B1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template 'Affordable Sector' - HLA/UC New Build Local Authority: East Dunbartonshire Council

SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR Council rented new build RSL rented new build Total Social Rented New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 88 62 72 68 34 25 0 0 19 19 18 18 0 0 0 0 0 88 62 72 68 34 25 0 0 19 19 18 18 0 0 0 0 0

Council demolitions RSL demolitions Total Demolitions

16 36 52

74 0 74

44 150 194

50 0 50

0 0 0

Council RTB RSL RTB Total RTB

45 6 51

41 5 46

39 1 40

37 1 38

35 0 35

33 0 33

32 0 32

30 0 30

29 0 29

27 0 27

26 0 26

24 0 24

23 0 23

22 0 22

21 0 21

20 0 20

19 0 19

3801 1614 5415

3686 1671 5357

3603 1592 5195

3516 1659 5175

3481 1693 5174

3448 1718 5166

3416 1718 5134

3386 1718 5104

3357 1737 5094

3330 1756 5086

3304 1774 5078

3280 1792 5072

3257 1792 5049

3235 1792 5027

3214 1792 5006

3194 1792 4986

3175 1792 4967

Council Voids (%) RSL Voids (%)

5.2% 7.0%

6.2% 7.0%

5.7% 7.0%

Council Voids RSL Voids Total Voids

198 113

229 117

205 111

200 116

198 119

197 120

195 120

193 120

191 122

190 123

188 124

187 125

186 125

184 125

183 125

182 125

181 125

3457 1554 5011

3398 1481 4879

3316 1543 4859

3283 1574 4857

3251 1598 4849

3221 1598 4819

3193 1598 4791

3166 1615 4781

3140 1633 4773

3116 1650 4766

3093 1667 4760

3071 1667 4738

3051 1667 4718

3031 1667 4698

3012 1667 4679

2994 1667 4661

5.2%

261

254

253

252

251

249

248

246

245

244

243

242

Council RSL End-Year Total Social Rented Stock

Council RSL End-Year Total Lettable Social Rented Stock

3890 1555 5445

3862 1568 5430

3890 1555 5445

3862 1568 5430

3603 1501 5104

Social Rented New Lets (general) Council RSL

50 90

22 95

20 111

Social Rented New Lets (homeless) Council RSL

154 14

140 15

106 17

Social Rented Transfer Lets Council RSL

48 28

99 28

64 32

Council RSL TOTAL SOCIAL RENTED LETS

252 132 384

261 138 399

190 160 350

7.1%

7.3%

6.9%

5.7%

5.0%

SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (total lets as %age of total stock) SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (new lets as %age of total stock) PROJECTED RELETS

INTERMEDIATE SECTOR Council LCHO/SO/SE new build RSL LCHO/SO/SE new build Total 'Other Affordable' New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table B2 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template 'Affordable Sector' - HLA/UC New Build Local Authority: East Renfrewshire Council

SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR Council rented new build RSL rented new build Total Social Rented New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 84 69 60 34 0 0 28 30 30 30 30 16 16 16 16 14 17 84 69 60 34 0 0 28 30 30 30 30 16 16 16 16 14

Council demolitions RSL demolitions Total Demolitions

0 0 0

4 0 4

0 0 0

Council RTB RSL RTB Total RTB

26 1 27

25 2 27

25 1 26

20 1 21

15 1 16

10 1 11

3097 1052 4149

3072 1134 4206

3047 1202 4249

3018 1261 4279

2993 1294 4287

2968 1293 4261

2948 1292 4240

2928 1319 4247

2908 1348 4256

2888 1377 4265

2868 1406 4274

2853 1435 4288

2838 1450 4288

2823 1465 4288

2808 1480 4288

2793 1495 4288

2783 1508 4291

1.6% 1.0%

48 10

48 11

47 12

46 13

45 13

45 14

44 14

44 15

43 15

3024 1123 4147

3000 1190 4190

2971 1249 4220

2947 1281 4228

2922 1280 4202

2902 1279 4181

2883 1306 4189

2863 1335 4198

2843 1363 4206

2824 1392 4216

2809 1421 4230

2794 1436 4230

2779 1450 4229

2764 1465 4229

2750 1480 4230

2740 1493 4233

7.5%

311

314

317

315

314

315

316

317

Council RSL End-Year Total Social Rented Stock

3163 1018 4181

3123 1036 4159

Council Voids (%) RSL Voids (%) Council Voids RSL Voids Total Voids Council RSL End-Year Total Lettable Social Rented Stock

3163 1018 4181

3123 1036 4159

3049 1042 4091

Social Rented New Lets (general) Council RSL

124 96

112 75

66 112

Social Rented New Lets (homeless) Council RSL

96 17

102 11

112 10

Social Rented Transfer Lets Council RSL

47 22

38 23

75 21

Council RSL TOTAL SOCIAL RENTED LETS

267 135 402

252 109 361

253 143 396

9.6%

8.7%

9.7%

8.0%

7.2%

7.3%

SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (total lets as %age of total stock) SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (new lets as %age of total stock) PROJECTED RELETS

INTERMEDIATE SECTOR Council LCHO/SO/SE new build RSL LCHO/SO/SE new build Total 'Other Affordable' New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 8 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 8 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table B3 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template 'Affordable Sector' - HLA/UC New Build Local Authority: Glasgow Council

SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR GHA & RSL rented new build Total Social Rented New Build GHA demolitions RSL demolitions Total Demolitions

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 702 769 827 886 1124 1686 984 805 607 1114 494 493 488 487 113 113 112 111 110 702 769 827 886 1124 1686 984 805 607 1114 494 493 488 487 113 113 112 111 110

2179 129 2308

2675 38 2713

2400 0 2400

1315 53 1368

853 259 1112

1254 321 1575

666 275 941

1262 395 1657

386 296 682

1071 420 1491

0 350 350

0 333 333

0 337 337

0 314 314

0 315 315

488 173 661

433 108 541

470 144 614

431 133 564

409 130 539

507 126 633

485 122 607

455 121 576

464 119 583

448 117 565

445 116 561

445 114 559

445 112 557

445 109 554

445 105 550

445 104 549

445 101 546

72347 43637 115984

69738 44116 113854

66630 44797 111427

63760 45539 109299

62014 46477 108491

60752 47774 108526

58991 48311 107302

57840 48719 106559

56123 48810 104933

55273 49509 104782

53754 49466 103220

53309 49493 102802

52864 49534 102398

52419 49572 101991

51974 49262 101236

51529 48956 100485

51084 48648 99732

50639 48340 98979

50194 48034 98228

1.5% 1.5%

999 672

956 683

930 697

911 717

885 725

868 731

842 732

829 743

806 742

800 742

793 743

786 744

780 739

773 734

766 730

760 725

753 721

69738 44116 113854

65631 44125 109756

62804 44856 107660

61084 45780 106864

59841 47057 106898

58106 47586 105692

56972 47988 104960

55281 48078 103359

54444 48766 103210

52948 48724 101672

52509 48751 101260

52071 48791 100862

51633 48828 100461

51194 48523 99717

50756 48222 98978

50318 47918 98236

49879 47615 97494

49441 47313 96754

Social Rented New Lets (general) GHA RSL

2618 1488

2717 1746

Social Rented New Lets (homeless) GHA RSL

1330 875

1568 780

Social Rented Transfer Lets GHA RSL

1536 1390

1829 1414

5484 3753 9237

6114 3940 10054

8.1%

9.2%

5.5%

6.2%

5.9%

6298 6429 -131

6252 6382 -130

6254 6381 -127

6183 6310 -127

6140 6265 -125

6047 6170 -123

6038 6159 -121

5948 6069 -121

5924 6046 -122

5900 6022 -122

5877 5999 -122

5833 5954 -121

5790 5911 -121

5747 5867 -120

5703 5822 -119

5660 5779 -119

GHA RTB RSL RTB Total RTB GHA RSL End-Year Social Rented Stock GHA Voids (%) RSL Voids (%) GHA Voids RSL Voids Total Voids GHA RSL End-Year Total Lettable Social Rented Stock

GHA RSL TOTAL SOCIAL RENTED LETS SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (total lets as %age of total stock) SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (new lets as %age of total stock) PROJECTED RELETS

INTERMEDIATE SECTOR GHA LCHO/SO/SE new build RSL LCHO/SO/SE new build Total 'Other Affordable' New Build

0 0 0

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 86 119 181 154 247 91 102 117 255 87 86 84 83 21 21 20 19 18 38 86 119 181 154 247 91 102 117 255 87 86 84 83 21 21 20 19 18

Table B4 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template 'Affordable Sector' - HLA/UC New Build Local Authority: Inverclyde Council

2008/09 0 93 93

2009/10 0 263 263

Council demolitions RSL demolitions Total Demolitions

0 263 263

0 495 495

0 503 503

0 416 416

0 190 190

0 304 304

Council RTB RSL RTB Total RTB

0 80 80

0 40 40

0 38 38

0 36 36

0 34 34

SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR Council rented new build RSL rented new build Total Social Rented New Build

2006/07

2007/08

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 0 0 0 0 0 177 173 219 198 136 177 173 219 198 136

2015/16 0 86 86

2016/17 0 109 109

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 108 108 78 78 78 78 77 109 108 108 78 78 78 78 77

0 363 363

0 386 386

0 100 100

0 32 32

0 30 30

0 29 29

0 28 28

0 27 27

0 26 26

0 25 25

0 24 24

0 23 23

0 22 22

0 21 21

0 20 20

Council RSL End-Year Total Social Rented Stock

8422 3488 11910

11566 11566

0 11316 11316

0 11044 11044

0 10680 10680

0 10401 10401

0 10396 10396

0 10258 10258

0 10001 10001

0 9672 9672

0 9653 9653

0 9635 9635

0 9617 9617

0 9600 9600

0 9554 9554

0 9509 9509

0 9465 9465

0 9422 9422

0 9379 9379

Council Voids (%) RSL Voids (%)

15.0% 2.2%

12.3%

10.6%

9.6%

8.6%

7.6%

6.6%

5.6%

4.6%

3.6%

Council Voids RSL Voids Total Voids

1267 77

1423

0 1199

0 1060

0 918

0 790

0 686

0 574

0 460

0 348

0 347

0 346

0 344

0 342

0 341

0 339

0 338

Council RSL End-Year Total Lettable Social Rented Stock

7155 3411 10566

0 10143 10143

0 10117 10117

0 9984 9984

0 9762 9762

0 9611 9611

0 9710 9710

0 9684 9684

0 9541 9541

0 9324 9324

0 9305 9305

0 9288 9288

0 9271 9271

0 9254 9254

0 9210 9210

0 9167 9167

0 9124 9124

0 9083 9083

0 9041 9041

Social Rented New Lets (general) Council RSL

198 194

149 220

392

522

Social Rented New Lets (homeless) Council RSL

123 21

92 27

165

214

Social Rented Transfer Lets Council RSL

255 25

191 149

277

311

Council RSL TOTAL SOCIAL RENTED LETS

576 240 816

432 396 828

0 834 834

0 1,047 1047

7.7%

8.2%

10.5%

5.1%

4.8%

5.5%

7.4%

5.9%

736

576

567

573

571

563

550

549

548

547

546

543

541

538

536

533

2015/16 0 59 59

2016/17 0 63 63

SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (total lets as %age of total stock) SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (new lets as %age of total stock) PROJECTED RELETS

INTERMEDIATE SECTOR Council LCHO/SO/SE new build RSL LCHO/SO/SE new build Total 'Other Affordable' New Build

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09 0 0 0

2009/10 0 79 79

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 0 0 0 0 0 37 14 53 80 58 37 14 53 80 58

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63 62 62 57 57 57 57 57 63 62 62 57 57 57 57 57

Table B5 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template 'Affordable Sector' - HLA/UC New Build Local Authority: North Lanarkshire Council

SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR Council rented new build RSL rented new build Total Social Rented New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 235 209 125 47 70 106 98 171 159 159 159 159 96 96 95 95 95 235 209 125 47 70 106 98 171 159 159 159 159 96 96 95 95 95

Council demolitions RSL demolitions Total Demolitions

220 0 220

0 41 41

0 0 0

161 0 161

0 47 47

0 0 0

0 44 44

0 0 0

0 56 56

0 0 0

0 69 69

15 15 30

Council RTB RSL RTB Total RTB

390 64 454

200 64 264

420 64 484

399 64 463

379 64 443

360 64 424

342 64 406

325 64 389

37380 8409 45789

37180 8513 45693

36760 8574 45334

36179 8557 44736

35759 8516 44275

35339 8558 43897

34919 8548 43467

34499 8655 43154

34079 8694 42773

33659 8789 42448

33239 8815 42054

32804 8895 41699

32390 8912 41302

31996 8929 40925

31621 8945 40566

31264 8961 40225

30924 8977 39901

1.65% 1.25%

617 105 722

613 106 719

607 107 714

597 107 704

590 106 696

583 107 690

576 107 683

569 108 677

562 109 671

555 110 665

548 110 658

541 111 652

534 111 645

528 112 640

522 112 634

516 112 628

510 112 622

37990 8238 46228

36763 8304 45067

36567 8407 44974

36153 8467 44620

35582 8450 44032

35169 8410 43579

34756 8451 43207

34343 8441 42784

33930 8547 42477

33517 8585 42102

33104 8679 41783

32691 8705 41396

32263 8784 41047

31856 8801 40657

31468 8817 40285

31099 8833 39932

30748 8849 39597

30414 8865 39279

Council RSL End-Year Social Rented Stock

37990 8238 46228

Council Voids (%) RSL Voids (%) Council Voids RSL Voids Total Voids Council RSL End-Year Total Lettable Social Rented Stock Social Rented New Lets (general) Council RSL

1480 556

1455 521

1428 675

1470 584

Social Rented New Lets (homeless) Council RSL

1293 117

1159 71

1190 90

1087 93

Social Rented Transfer Lets Council RSL

574 82

599 65

561 104

655 85

Council RSL TOTAL SOCIAL RENTED LETS

3347 755 4102

3213 657 3870

3179 869 4048

3212 762 3974

8.4%

9.0%

8.8%

6.9%

7.5%

7.2%

3234

3213

3170

3138

3111

3080

3058

3031

3008

2981

2955

2927

2901

2875

2851

2828

SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (total lets as %age of total stock) SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (new lets as %age of total stock) PROJECTED RELETS

INTERMEDIATE SECTOR Council LCHO/SO/SE new build RSL LCHO/SO/SE new build Total 'Other Affordable' New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table B6 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template 'Affordable Sector' - HLA/UC New Build Local Authority: Renfrewshire Council

SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR Council rented new build RSL rented new build Total Social Rented New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 284 153 133 68 106 69 29 30 30 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 91 284 153 133 68 106 69 29 30 30 30 30 0 0 0 0 0

Council demolitions RSL demolitions Total Demolitions

443 122 565

307 90 397

89 50 139

47 24 71

38 0 38

0 0 0

80 0 80

0 0 0

Council RTB RSL RTB Total RTB

99 13 112

75 10 85

13438 7162 20600

13056 7346 20402

12892 7439 20331

12770 7538 20308

12657 7596 20253

12582 7692 20274

12427 7751 20178

12352 7770 20122

12277 7790 20067

12202 7810 20012

12127 7830 19957

12052 7850 19902

11977 7840 19817

11902 7830 19732

11827 7820 19647

11752 7810 19562

11677 7800 19477

2.4% 2.0%

323 143 466

308 147 455

304 149 453

301 151 452

299 152 451

297 154 451

293 155 448

292 155 447

290 156 446

288 156 444

286 157 443

284 157 441

283 157 440

281 157 438

279 156 435

277 156 433

276 156 432

13980 7206 21186

13115 7019 20134

12748 7199 19947

12588 7290 19878

12469 7387 19856

12358 7444 19802

12285 7538 19823

12134 7596 19730

12060 7615 19675

11987 7634 19621

11914 7654 19568

11841 7673 19514

11768 7693 19461

11694 7683 19377

11621 7673 19294

11548 7664 19212

11475 7654 19129

11401 7644 19045

Social Rented New Lets (general) Council RSL

714 569

463 565

545 544

Social Rented New Lets (homeless) Council RSL

326 122

487 72

467 128

Social Rented Transfer Lets Council RSL

369 184

220 198

222 148

1409 875 2284

1170 835 2005

1234 820 2054

10.8%

10.0%

10.1%

8.2%

7.9%

8.4%

1684

1670

1668

1663

1665

1657

1653

1648

1644

1639

1635

1628

1621

1614

1607

1600

Council RSL End-Year Total Social Rented Stock

13980 7206 21186

Council Voids (%) RSL Voids (%) Council Voids RSL Voids Total Voids Council RSL End-Year Total Lettable Social Rented Stock

Council RSL TOTAL SOCIAL RENTED LETS SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (total lets as %age of total stock) SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (new lets as %age of total stock) PROJECTED RELETS

INTERMEDIATE SECTOR Council LCHO/SO/SE new build RSL LCHO/SO/SE new build Total 'Other Affordable' New Build

0 0 0

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 23 23 23 23 23 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 25 25 23 23 23 23 23 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9

Table B7 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template 'Affordable Sector' - HLA/UC New Build Local Authority: South Lanarkshire Council

SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR Council rented new build RSL rented new build Total Social Rented New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 199 83 122 197 199 75 45 45 284 284 283 280 139 139 139 137 136 199 83 122 197 199 75 45 45 284 284 283 280 139 139 139 137 136

Council demolitions RSL demolitions Total Demolitions

76 5 81

119 7 126

177 9 186

65 9 74

86 9 95

40 9 49

10 9 19

Council RTB RSL RTB Total RTB

126 20 146

Council RSL End-Year Total Social Rented Stock

26384 5493 31877

26182 5667 31849

25937 5723 31660

25634 5816 31450

25443 5984 31427

25231 6154 31385

25065 6200 31265

24929 6216 31145

24793 6232 31025

24657 6487 31144

24521 6742 31263

24385 6996 31381

24249 7247 31496

24113 7357 31470

23977 7467 31444

23841 7577 31418

23705 7685 31390

23569 7792 31361

Council Voids (%) RSL Voids (%)

1.1% 1.1%

288 62

285 63

282 64

280 66

278 68

276 68

274 68

273 69

271 71

270 74

268 77

267 80

265 81

264 82

262 83

261 85

259 86

25652 5660 31312

25352 5752 31104

25163 5918 31081

24953 6086 31039

24789 6132 30921

24655 6148 30803

24520 6163 30683

24386 6416 30802

24251 6668 30919

24117 6919 31036

23982 7167 31149

23848 7276 31124

23713 7385 31098

23579 7494 31073

23444 7600 31044

23310 7706 31016

6.8%

2129

2115

2114

2111

2103

2095

2086

2095

2102

2110

2118

2116

2115

2113

2111

2109

Council Voids RSL Voids Total Voids Council RSL End-Year Total Lettable Social Rented Stock

26075 5493 31568

26384 5493 31877

25894 5605 31499

Social Rented New Lets (general) Council RSL

813 398

693 449

637 536

Social Rented New Lets (homeless) Council RSL

797 40

987 54

1047 67

Social Rented Transfer Lets Council RSL

481 110

486 126

432 151

Council RSL TOTAL SOCIAL RENTED LETS

2091 548 2639

2166 629 2795

2116 754 2870

8.4%

8.8%

9.1%

6.5%

6.8%

7.3%

SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (total lets as %age of total stock) SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (new lets as %age of total stock) PROJECTED RELETS

INTERMEDIATE SECTOR Council LCHO/SO/SE new build RSL LCHO/SO/SE new build Total 'Other Affordable' New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table B8 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Supply Template 'Affordable Sector' - HLA/UC New Build Local Authority: West Dunbartonshire Council

SOCIAL RENTED SECTOR Council rented new build RSL rented new build Total Social Rented New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 95 98 108 100 132 112 131 132 70 70 70 68 88 88 87 87 86 95 98 108 100 132 112 131 132 70 70 70 68 88 88 87 87 86

Council demolitions RSL demolitions Total Demolitions

0 54 54

12 50 62

48 50 98

49 50 99

95 0 95

96 0 96

225 0 225

228 0 228

76 0 76

77 0 77

Council RTB RSL RTB Total RTB

68 15 83

50 22 72

50 21 71

50 20 70

50 19 69

50 18 68

41 17 58

41 16 57

41 15 56

41 14 55

41 13 54

36 12 48

36 11 47

36 10 46

36 9 45

36 8 44

28 7 35

11670 5602 17272

11602 5628 17230

11540 5654 17194

11442 5691 17133

11344 5721 17065

11245 5784 17029

11100 5878 16978

10964 5992 16956

10827 6108 16935

10561 6163 16724

10295 6219 16514

10029 6276 16305

9768 6332 16100

9504 6409 15913

9392 6487 15879

9280 6565 15845

9168 6644 15812

9063 6723 15786

5.5% 3.4%

5.0% 3.4%

4.5% 3.2%

4.0% 3.0%

3.0% 2.5%

2.5% 2.2%

2.0% 1.8%

1.4% 1.6%

638 191

577 192

515 182

454 172

337 145

278 129

219 108

152 98

148 99

144 100

140 100

137 101

133 103

131 104

130 105

128 106

127 108

11670 5602 17272

10964 5437 16401

10963 5462 16425

10927 5509 16436

10890 5549 16439

10908 5639 16547

10822 5749 16571

10745 5884 16629

10675 6010 16685

10413 6064 16477

10151 6119 16270

9889 6176 16065

9631 6231 15862

9371 6306 15677

9261 6383 15644

9150 6460 15610

9040 6538 15578

8936 6615 15551

7.5%

1232

1233

1241

1243

1247

1251

1236

1220

1205

1190

1176

1173

1171

1168

1166

Council RSL End-Year Total Social Rented Stock

11720 5634 17354

Council Voids (%) RSL Voids (%) Council Voids RSL Voids Total Voids Council RSL End-Year Total Lettable Social Rented Stock Social Rented New Lets (general) Council RSL

534 256

443 213

384 184

Social Rented New Lets (homeless) Council RSL

488 234

355 170

528 253

Social Rented Transfer Lets Council RSL

223 107

149 71

155 74

Council RSL TOTAL SOCIAL RENTED LETS

1245 597 1842

947 454 1401

1067 511 1578

8.1%

9.6%

6.8%

8.2%

SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (total lets as %age of total stock) SOCIAL RENTED TURNOVER RATE (new lets as %age of total stock) PROJECTED RELETS

INTERMEDIATE SECTOR Council LCHO/SO/SE new build RSL LCHO/SO/SE new build Total 'Other Affordable' New Build

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 4 35 32 97 96 96 96 78 78 78 78 78 0 0 18 0 0 4 35 32 97 96 96 96 78 78 78 78 78

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Planning Authority Lower ground floor, 125 West Regent Street, Glasgow G2 2SA t 0141 229 7730 | e info@gcvsdpa.gov.uk | w www.gcvsdpa.gov.uk