University of Kentucky Department of Agricultural Economics
Economic & Policy Update Volume 15, Issue 08
Edited by: Will Snell & Phyllis Mattox
August 26, 2015
Mid-year Cattle Inventory Report Shows Continued Herd Expansion
Featured Articles: Mid-Year Cattle Inventory Report Shows Continued Herd Expansion - Kenny Burdine
New Monthly Newsletter Available: Crops Marketing & Management Update -
- Todd Davis
Picking Apples from the Grazing Tree – Part II - Greg Halich
Retirement Options for Farmers without Employees - Amanda Jenkins
Dr. Jordan M. Shockley Joins the UK Dept. of Ag. Economics
USDA released their mid-year cattle inventory estimates in late July. The report showed continued expansion of the beef cow herd at a slightly greater pace than was seen in January. The combination of favorable weather and strong calf prices are continuing to keep mature cows in production and encourage heifer retention. Beef cow numbers were estimated to be up 2.5% from last July and heifer retention was estimated up by about 6.5%. July 1 inventory estimates for 2014 and 2015 can be found in Table 1.
Table 1: USDA July 1, 2015 Cattle Inventory Report 2014 2015 (1,000 hd) (1,000 hd) 96,300 98,400 Total Cattle and Calves
2015 as % of 2014 102
Cows and Heifers That Have Calved Beef Cows Milk Cows
39,000 29,750 9,250
39,800 30,500 9,300
102 103 101
Heifers 500 Pounds and Over For Beef Cow Replacement For Milk Cow Replacement Other Heifers
15,600 4,600 4,100 6,900
15,900 4,900 4,200 6,800
102 107 102 99
Steers 500 Pounds and Over Bulls 500 Pounds and Over Calves Under 500 Pounds
13,700 1,900 26,100
14,100 1,900 26,700
103 100 102
Cattle on Feed Calf Crop
11,900 33,900
12,100 34,300
102 101
Source: NASS, USDA
I think it is worth making note of the magnitude of the change in beef cow numbers that were seen in this report. Three years of severe drought from 2011-2013 (particularly in the Southern Plains) resulted in both a reduction in cow numbers and a reduction in the overall age of the cowherd. As weather has improved and calf prices have remained strong, we have seen a major decrease in cow slaughter since 2013. At the same time, we are also seeing the herd grow though heifer retention and both factors are leading to increased cow numbers at the national level. A 2.5% increase may not seem that large to many people, however it is worth noting that we have not seen a year-over-year increase of that magnitude since the early 1990’s. So, the cow herd is growing at a pace beyond what we have seen in recent history. I often like to consider heifer retention as it relates to the size of the US cow herd. The 6.5% increase in beef heifer development represents an additional 300,000 heifers this year, which is equivalent to about 1% of the US cow herd. Another way to put heifer retention in perspective is to consider it as a percentage of the total US beef herd. This measure typically ranges from 13%-17% in the July report. University of Kentucky Department of Agricultural Economics: Economic & Policy View all issues online at http://www.uky.edu/Ag/AgEcon/extbluesheet.php