& Policy Update Graphic owner: UKZN SAEES: school website
April 20, 2017 Volume 17, Issue 4 Edited by Will Snell & Phyllis Mattox
FEATURED ARTICLES
Cull Cow Price Seasonality - Kenny Burdine Thoughts on the 2017 Tobacco Season - Will Snell
CULL COW PRICE SEASONALITY I write about seasonality in calf and feeder cattle markets pretty regularly and we are at about the time of year when calf markets typically reach their seasonal highs as stocker operations place calves into grazing programs. These same calves tend to reach their lows in the fall as more calves move through markets, and their value is primarily determined by what feedlots and winter backgrounders can pay for them. Heavier feeder cattle prices show less seasonal tendencies, but are usually highest in the late summer and early fall. For the most part, I have written much less about the seasonal patterns that exist in cull cow markets. However, since cull cow sales are very significant for cow-calf operations, it makes sense to spend a little time discussing these price patterns. Figure one plots both a 5-year and 10-year average for 80-85% boning cull cows in Kentucky. While the most recent 5 years clearly saw higher cull cow prices, both series show the same general seasonal pattern. Cull cow prices tend to be lowest in the late fall and early winter, then increase into spring and summer. This pattern actually follows the seasonal pattern for weaned calves closely.
Figure 1. Cull Cow Prices at KY Auctions Boning 80-85% ($ per cwt)
2016 Preliminary KFBM Data - Laura Powers Starting the Conversation: Transferring Your Farm to the Next Generation - Jennifer Hunter
Lessons from Farm Market Price Averages - Brett Wolff - Tim Woods - Martin BĂŠchu - Alex Butler - Jennifer Hunter
Source: USDA-AMS, Livestock Marketing Information Center Cull cow prices reach their lows in the fall / winter for a couple of reasons. First, since most operations calve in the spring and wean in the fall, more cull cows are marketed during this time as cull cows tend to be sold when calves are weaned. At the same time, feeding costs are higher during the winter months, which makes cull cows less attractive for another producer to purchase to feed or put back into production at this time. Tracking seasonal patterns has been difficult the last several years given the overall volatility in cattle markets. Many factors outside of seasonality have greatly influenced prices and this has led to exaggerated seasonal, and counter-seasonal, price patterns in many cases. So,PAGE taking a2 long-term view on price seasonality is typically best. Educational programs of Kentucky Cooperative Extension serve all people regardless of race, color, age, sex, religion, disability, or national origin. UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY, KENTUCKY STATE UNIVERSITY, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, & KENTUCKY COUNTIES COOPERATING.