Gallelli Gazette_September 19, 2023

THE GALLELLI GAZETTE Retail Roundup

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

Sadly, over the past few weeks we saw a couple of solid retail concepts file bankruptcy and opt to close all of their stores. The upscale furniture retailer Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams filed Chapter 11 about three weeks ago. Briefly it looked like the chain might just close a couple of underperforming units, but within days the North Carolina-based concept had decided to close all 24 showrooms as well as its three factories. The recent pullback of consumer in furniture and furnishings spending (after the Covid-induced spend fest of 2020/2021) has challenged virtually every player in this arena from luxury retailer RH to more budget-minded concepts. But Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams had sold their firm to the Arkansas-based private equity firm the Stephens Group in 2015 in a leveraged buyout (LBO) worth $55 million which the chain was then saddled with. Between 2000 and 2019, 60% of retail bankruptcies included leveraged buyouts where retailers were never able to get from underneath the debts their new owners had run up to acquire them, and then saddled them with. In 2000—a year in which we saw a record 75+ major chain bankruptcies—that number fell to roughly 50% given the unique circumstances of the challenges of the pandemic. In 2021 and 2022 we tracked record low levels of bankruptcy, but those numbers are picking back up and guess what? About 60% of them are chains that had been saddled with exorbitant debt loads placed upon them by private equity buyers.

Which brings us to Soft Surroundings, the 44-unit chain out of St. Louis that filed Chapter 11 last week and announced it was closing all its stores. Soft Surroundings is owned by Brentwood Associates, a Los Angeles-based private equity group that acquired a controlling share in the retailer in 2012 reportedly for somewhere between $150 and $200 million in, you guessed it! A leveraged buyout. The chain is being sold out of bankruptcy to Hong Kong-based NewTimes Group to operate under their Coldwater Creek division (another chain bankrupted by LBOs that the Chinese firm bought out

of bankruptcy in 2014). All 44 stores will be closed and the chain, which specializes in women’s clothing, and bedding, will pivot to being an online-only, DTC brand… at least for now.

These, of course, follow the continued speculation regarding Rite Aid’s fate. Be sure to check out the last issue of the Gazette to see my write-up on that looming bankruptcy. The only thing I have to add to my analysis of a couple of weeks ago is that Rite Aid has now closed something close to 30 stores over the past month, though they have yet to file, and the speculation on the street is that there will be a large wave of closures announced when they do file… which is expected to be this or next week. That wave of closures I had feared could be as many as 700 stores (or roughly a third of the chain), but the rumors I am hearing now is that closures will likely be in the 300 to 400 store range.

Of course, I am already seeing the re-tread of “retail apocalypse” stories though, so far, it’s mostly been in sensationalist rags and not mainstream or business focused publications. There is a plethora of reasons why this is different than the landscape of the late 2010s but let me start by sharing a quote I heard on a conference call of dozens of retail brokers planning an event the other day. I was asked for my latest intel, at which point I shared the latest I had been hearing. One of the brokers on the call responded, “Nothing against Rite Aid but I was hoping the closures would be closer to your initial thoughts of +/-700, Garrick. We desperately need the product.” That statement was followed by at least a dozen brokers across the country loudly agreeing. It was followed by a spontaneous conversation on how quickly Bed Bath & Beyond locations are being backfilled across the nation and at significantly higher rental rates than the chain had been paying prior to its liquidation in July. That alone tells me this is radically different.

Of course, the other two bankruptcies I mentioned this week are more likely to be at malls than the neighborhood/ community center or standalone locations most Rite Aids are in. Obviously, if you read this publication, you will notice that in our Local News section, most of the reports of the last few months have been about the lack of available, quality retail space in most markets—though that news largely focuses on outdoor shopping centers from unanchored strip to community/ neighborhood, to power centers.

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TOP TEN RETAIL STORIES OF THE WEEK

1 US Inflation is Expected to Keep Slowing. Here’s Why CNN 9/17

2 Will Restart of Student Loan Payments be the Last Straw for Consumers Wall Street Journal 9/15

3 Deloitte: Holiday Sales to Rise by 3.5% Retail Dive 9/14

4 US Retail Spending Picked up in August, Mostly Due to Sales at Gas Stations CNN 9/14

5 TikTok Launches Online Shopping in the US Fashion Network 9/14

6 LVMH, Luxury Sector Cut at Barclays on Risk of China Slowdown Fashion Network 9/14

7 Brokerage Stocks Plummet as Hopes for Transaction Volume Turnaround Fade Bisnow 9/14

8 California Unleashes Record $267M War Chest to Crush Organized Retail Crime Hoodline 9/13

9

Soft Surroundings Files Chapter 11: Will Close All Stores Winston-Salem Journal 9/12

10 Meet the 2023 Hot Concepts of the Year Nation’s Restaurant News 9/11

“Anxiety does not empty tomorrow of its sorrows, but only empties today of its strength”

–Charles Spurgeon

BANKRUPTCIES CLIMB BUT THE ‘RETAIL APOCALYPSE’ IS NOT RETURNING

THE GALLELLI GAZETTE Retail Roundup

TOP ECONOMIC STORIES

Soft Landing May be Rougher Than Many Expect Globe Street 9/14

Walmart Predicts Shift Away from Grocery as Food Inflation Slows PYMNTS 9/14

US Holiday Sales Set for Slowest Year Since 2018 as Consumers Turn Frugal: Deloitte Fashion Network 9/14

August Wholesale Inflation Rises 0.7%, Hotter Than Expected, But Core Prices in Check CNBC 9/14

Fed is Very Close to Ending Rate Hikes: Tim Anderson Fox Business 9/13

Food Inflation Proves Sticky Again

Progressive Grocer 9/13

August Core Inflation, Excluding Food & Energy, Rose 0.3%--Hotter Than Expected CNBC 9/13

North American Consumers Rank Comfort Highest Among List of Luxury Attributes Luxury Daily 9/12

Chinese Property Market Now a Bigger Credit Risk Than US or EU Bisnow 9/12

US Retail Workers are Fed Up and Quitting at Record Rates Business of Fashion 9/8

TOP RETAIL REAL ESTATE TREND NEWS

Retail Space Per Capita Hits Multi-Decade Low Globe Street 9/18

US Commercial Real Estate Faces Challenges w/Massive Debt Refinancings, Says Economist

El-Erian

Off Plan Property Exchange 9/18

Bergman’s $16M Cherry Hill NJ Acquisition Marks its First in Retail Sector NJ Biz 9/18

Mall Foot Traffic Flows Depend on Many Factors

Globe Street 9/13

Retail at 2023’s Midpoint: Who’s Winning? Connect CRE 9/12

Are Strip Mall Conversions an Answer to the Housing Crisis? Boston.com 9/11

Some Encouraging Signs in the Office Sector Globe Street 9/8

The Cities with the Most Class B Office Pain Globe Street 9/8

Regional Banks CRE Exposure More Substantial Than It Appears Bisnow 9/6

Malls Get Better News w/Recent CMBS Remittances

Globe Street 9/6

BUYERS AND SELLERS

RioCan REIT: Expanding Portfolio w/Retail and Mixed-Use Off Plan Property Exchange 9/18

Jimmy Buffet’s Real Estate Ventures: A Look at the Properties of a Music Mogul Off Plan Property Exchange 9/18

Shop One and JV Partners Expand Presence w/New England Shopping Center Purchase Business Wire 9/18

Headwall Goes Back to the Well for More Retail Centers Connect CRE 9/15

Bucksbaum Pays $225 PSF ($27M) for Juno Beach (FL) Shopping Center, Plaza La Mer The Real Deal 9/13

Westfield Owner Rethinks Mall Plans as Brick-and-Mortar Persists PYMNTS 9/12

One Liberty Square in Downtown Boston Sold for $45M Connect CRE 9/11

Wrestling to Return to Mall of America Retail and Leisure International 9/8

URW Sells Westfield Valencia Town Center for $199M Globe Street 9/7

RETAIL DEVELOPMENT HIGHLIGHTS

Desert Ridge Marketplace in Phoenix to Test ‘Cool Pavement’ that Could Lower Surface Temperatures

12 News Phoenix 9/17

Shopping Center & 3 Industrial Buildings to Replace Former Burlington Center Mall in NJ Costar 9/15

Former Karcher Mall in Nampa Finds New Life. Here’s How Developers Did it Idaho Statesman 9/15

Related’s Proposed Bristol Development Would be a Major Change for South Coast Plas Metro Area

Orange County Register 9/15

Rockefeller to Transform Vegas Big Box Store to Industrial Connect CRE 9/14

New York Developer Gambles on Las Vegas Shift Toward Strip-Facing Stores Costar 9/12

Steeplegate Mall, Regal Cinema Would Become Retail and 625 Housing Units Under New Plan NHPR 9/12

Developers Advance Two Possible Publix Grocery Store Sites in Northern Kentucky WCPO 9/12

Centennial Plans to Redevelop Valencia Town Center into a Retail Village The Real Deal 9/11

RH Announces Proposal to Reimagine and Restore One Ocean Drive, Miami Beach Business Wire 9/6

Repurposed Multistory Parking Garages Reimagined as Luxury Retail & Entertainment Spaces Yanko Design 9/6

RETAIL AND CONSUMER TRENDS

Tik Tok Shop is a Real eCommerce Threat Bloomberg 9/17

Why Are Consumers Still So Gloomy? Blame Covid Bloomberg 9/15

How Major Retailers Should Handle Early Xmas 2023 Demand Retail Dive 9/15

Value-right Retailers Will Win the Holidays; Shoppers to Trade Down Retail Dive 9/15

THE GALLELLI GAZETTE Retail Roundup

Retailers are Losing $100B a Year on Return Fraud, Bots and Coupon Stacking

CNBC 9/14

Online Prices Hit 40 Month Low in August

Retail Brew 9/13

Trump’s Latest Retail Comment is No Laughing Matter Forbes 9/10

Shopping Mall Remade: Five Projects Bringing Excitement Back to Retail Hubs Frame 9/9

Organized Retail Crime is a $100B National Problem Globe Street 9/7

Resale Stigma Fades Among Second-Hand Shoppers Retail Dive 9/6

SUPPLY CHAIN/ECOMMERCE/OMNICHANNEL/TECH

Why DTC is a Relationship and Not Just a Channel Retail Brew 9/14

Prologis Looks at Four Global Trends Impacting Logistics

Globe Street 9/13

Village Super Market to Expand Focal Systems AI in All Stores Winsight Grocery Business 9/13

14% of Consumers Exclusively Buy Their Groceries Online PYMNTS 9/12

Pizza Roboto Partners with Cartwheel to Power Delivery Services RestaurantNews.com 9/12

Amazon’s Next Big Bet? Restocking Shelves at Physical Stores Spokesman Review 9/12

Has Omnichannel Retailing Made Malls More Relevant Retail Wire 9/12

Expert Says Strong Industrial Wav Nowhere Near Over Globe Street 9/11

NRF Acquires Reverse Logistics Association Retail Dive 9/7

Mall of America Augments Security Officers w/Smart Cameras

Chain Store Age 9/7

NORTH OF THE BORDER

Canadian Jewelry Brand Mejuri Announces $100M for Expansion Retail and Leisure International 9/14

T&T Supermarkets Opening Second Toronto Location Downtown Cision PR Newswire 9/14

Quesada Opens 200th Unit in Ontario Verdict Food Service 9/14

Vancouver-Based Herschel Parts Ways w/CEO, Shifts Focus to Stores

Vancouver is Awesome 9/11

Burnaby is Getting a New European Inspired Shopping Plaza 604 Now 9/11

Toys R Us Canada Opens 10 New Stores including 2 Babies R Us Locations Retail Touchpoints 9/11

Insomnia Cookies Opens 1st Canadian Store at York University in Toronto Now Toronto 9/9

Brooklyn Dumpling Shop Opens First Calgary Location Daily Hive 9/8

Indigo to Open New Concept Store Retail Info Systems 9/5

Canada’s Largest Nike to Open in Edmonton Daily Hive 9/5

EXPERIENTIAL RETAIL REVIEW

Tiger Woods & Justin Timberlake Opening Golf Infused Sports Bar in NYC Golf 9/18

Stray Pirate Tropical Cocktails & Effects to Open in Las Vegas KTNV 9/16

Crush Yard to Open 2 Pickleball Clubs Totaling 90k SF in FL, SC Shopping Center Business 9/14

Retail Roundup

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But the news remains overwhelmingly good for most of the mall sector. A recently released report from JLL last week pointed out that 38% of new luxury store openings in 2022 were in malls. That tracks with what I have been tracking and reflects a huge uptick. Prior to the pandemic (in 2019), I tracked the opening of over 300 luxury concepts across the US—at which time only about 15% of them were in malls… and those were limited to a handful of elite shopping centers like Aventura Mall, South Coast Plaza, Westfield Century City, Ala Moana, Mall of America, etc. The rest of that growth went to high street shopping districts.

Incidentally, the luxury surge is only likely to continue in 2024. Here is why; most luxury brands have been reliant on opening stores in China and the Middle East for most of the past 20 years to achieve the growth rates their shareholders or private equity masters’ demand. But the Chinese economy is currently in the weakest place it’s been in 30 years and may potentially enter recession next year. With many of the largest brands already nearing saturation in the Middle East and Europe and growth radically slowing in China, the US and Canadian markets are already looking far more attractive to luxury concepts.

But the biggest reason why the current spate of bankruptcies is not a return to the bad old days of the “Retail Apocalypse” era of the late 2010s is something far too often overlooked. It is a fact that since 2008, retail development has radically dwindled across the board. Meanwhile, over 130 million square feet (MSF) of space has been demolished in just the last five years—particularly in older malls, which were ground zero for those apocalyptic headlines to begin with. Let me share some numbers to put this into perspective…

I was just a young research analyst only a few years into my career in the year 2000. At that time, there were roughly 1,900 malls across the United States, with an average size of 1.1 MSF each. By 2010 there were 1,600 malls. What happened to the 300 projects that went away? Well, most of them did not go away. Overwhelmingly they were converted from being enclosed malls to being outdoor shopping centers. Yes, somewhere around 40 of those projects became dead malls. These were overwhelmingly in parts of the country where populations were in decline; the Midwest and Northeast accounting for most of those numbers though the trend also played out across the Sunbelt to a lesser degree. There, the failed projects typically were ones that probably should never have been built. I know of a couple in Texas that were built on the edge of development in places where population growth was anticipated but never materialized. Ironically, with that state’s postpandemic population spike, there is a good chance that had the timing been different those would be successful centers today. But most of that initial wave of mall downsizing came in the form of projects being converted to power centers and there were even a few that became grocery-anchored neighborhood or community centers. Only a few incorporated mixed-use elements like multifamily, office, hospitality into the mix in this early wave of mall closures.

Then, between 2010 and 2019, the number of malls again fell by roughly 300 centers. By the late 2010s, speculation behind converting dead malls to industrial eCommerce fulfillment space picked up. I suppose it sounded logical on paper… at least to those not involved in commercial real estate.

But this was never actually going to happen in large numbers. I counted only seven former mall projects that went through this conversion process during this time period (there have been another six since 2020). By the way, the conversions of large, big box stores to this use have been far more prevalent (Sam’s Club alone has converted more stores to eCommerce fulfillment than the total number of malls in the US that have been remade for industrial use.

The reality is that most malls—whether they are thriving, just surviving, or dead—tend to be in premier locations within their communities. So, usually, the highest and best use for the land remained retail even once the mall on it had died. Hence, we continue to see more conversions to other retail shopping center types in which it was not uncommon to see a 1.1 MSF mall razed to make way for a 450,000 SF power center.

It would not be until the late 2010s that we finally saw substantial numbers of projects incorporating mixed-use elements to malls as opposed to converting entire properties. But this has clearly emerged as the go-to plan for reviving challenged properties. The pandemic would only accelerate this trend—forcing landlords and developers into action.

In 2019, I was tracking 1,300 US malls. Roughly 50 have failed since then (most in 2020). Of the 1,250 malls I am tracking today, about 400 of them are Class A or trophy assets. Most of these have waiting lists for new tenants. These shopping centers account for roughly 65% of all mall sales. There are approximately 450 Class B malls. These account for about 30% of all mall sales; some are well-positioned, many are not. And then there are roughly 400 Class C or D malls—which is where the greatest challenges remain. However, I am now tracking over 600 properties that are engaged in some sort of mixeduse re-imagining of these shopping centers. These include everything from complete (or near-complete) teardowns and redevelopment, to adding housing to where a defunct department store used to be.

By the way, the average size of the mall in 2000 was 1.1 MSF. Besides there being hundreds fewer of them, the average size of what I am tracking today is just under 900,000 SF. One last thing… in 2020, the average mall leased about 10% of its space to food, beverage or entertainment tenants. This would often play out as a 50,000 SF multiplex theater, a 30,000 to 40,000 SF food court and a smattering of chain restaurants often on parking lot pads. 35% to 40% is the norm now with projects pushing the needle further.

BANKRUPTCIES CLIMB BUT THE ‘RETAIL APOCALYPSE’ IS NOT RETURNING

THE GALLELLI GAZETTE Retail Roundup

Bad Axes to Bring Axe Throwing Concept to Kings Harbor, TX Community Impact 9/14

Pickle & Social, Fairway Social to Open Entertainment Centers in Frisco TX RE Business Online 9/12

Malys to Open Entertainment Center in Conway, Arkansas THV 11 9/11

Can Pickleball Revive Santa Monica’s Third Street Promenade? Los Angeles Times 9/10

SF Nordstrom Space Already Filled by Japanese Entertainment Arcade Roundi in Stonestown Hoodline 9/10

Vegan Restaurant, Bar & Arcade Unbeetable Opens in Schenectady NY Daily Gazette 9/9

Tap-In Golf Bar Leases 6,700+ SF at Silvernail Plaza in Waukesha, WI RE Business Online 9/6

HIGH STREET HAPPENINGS

Luxury Brands Growth Fueled by Retail In Store 9/16

Creative Director Sarah Andelman Muses on New Retail Concepts WWD 9/16

Malls Accounted for 38% of Luxury Retail Leases in 2022 Luxury Daily 9/15

Starts Aligned for Growth in Luxury Sector Building Design + Construction 9/13

Swiss Watchmaker Audemars Piguet Introduces Experiential Retail Concept in LA Luxury Daily 9/12

Khaadi to Open First US Store at Tysons Corner Connect CRE 9/12

Jean Dousset on his new West Hollywood Boutique Fashion Network 9/12

Princess Polly Opens First Ever US Store in LA Power Retail 9/11

Michael Kors Opens in Raleigh’s Crabtree Valley Mall Triangle Business Journal 9/11

Electric Automaker Rivian Opens 5th Location—This one on Chicago’s Gold Coast WGLT 9/11

Marc Jacobs in Talks to Open New Fifth Ave Flagship in Manhattan NY Post 9/10

Madewell Opens Revamped NYC Flagship Retail and Leisure International 9/8

Commando Opens Pop-Up in SoHo WWD 9/7

American Girl Flagship Opens at Westfield Century City in LA Chain Store Age 9/6

Fjallraven Opens in Palo Alto, CA—Now Has 42 Stores Across US & Canada

Retail Dive 9/6

RETAIL CHAIN STORE OPENINGS AND GROWTH

True Religion Opens First New Store in 4 Years; 46th US Store Opens in ATL

Retail Dive 9/15

New Target Store to Open in Dallas’ Gates of Prosper Development

Connect CRE 9/15

Popular Asian Toy Store Concept Pop Mart Opens First US Store at American Dream Chain Store Age 9/15

Sheetz Grows Store Count to 700, Aiming for 1,000

Progressive Grocer 9/15

Casey’s to Expand with 150 Stores in 2024

Retail and Leisure International 9/13

Nordstrom Rack Opens in San Diego

Retail Insight Network 9/13

Danish Furniture Concept BoConcept to Open in Boca Raton

Retail Customer Experience 9/12

Costco to Build its World’s Largest Store (241,000 SF) in Fresno

Retail and Leisure International 9/12

Total Wine & More Opens New Store in St. Louis Park, MN

Cision PR Newswire 9/12

The Good Pour Takes Former CVS in Orlando Growth Spotter 9/12

DAISO Opens New Store in Mesa AZ

Retail and Leisure International 9/12

Asian Concept Pop Mart Opens First Store at American Dream Retail Customer Experience 9/11

Shoe Concept Kicking It Expands to San Antonio My San Antonio 9/11

Kohl’s Reveals the 45 Stores Where Sephora Units Are Opening This Fall Retail and Leisure International 9/11

Nordstrom Rack Expands in San Antonio San Antonio Express-News 9/10

International Fitness Concept 54D Gym Opens First Location in NYC Connect CRE 9/8

Mango Launches First Store in California Fashion Network 9/7

THE GALLELLI GAZETTE Retail Roundup

Banana Republic Expands Home Collection

Retail and Leisure International 9/7

Macy’s Signs w/Kimco to Open Small Format (30K SF) Store in Santee CA

Connect CRE 9/7

Primark Opens Second Illinois Store

Retail and Leisure International 9/6

Inside Air Guitar: Upscale C-Store Concept Putting Unique Spin on Concept

C-Store Dive 9/6

REI Opening in Ithaca NY

Chain Store Age 9/6

Banana Republic to go Big into Home Furnishings

Chain Store Age 9/6

Forever 21 Stores to Host First Brick-and-Mortar Outposts of Shein

Bisnow 9/5

THE GROCERY AISLE

New Concept, FreshTake, to Open 2024 in GA in 42K Former Whole Foods

Chain Store Age 9/15

Redeveloped I. Magnin Space Becomes LA’s 10th Erewhon Grocery

Connect CRE 9/15

Grocery Outlet Plans Bi-Coastal Store Openings

Winsight Grocery Business 9/15

Natural Grocers Readies for Slew of New Openings

Winsight Grocery Business 9/15

Fresh Market Opening in Port St. Lucie FL

Shelby Report 9/14

City-Owned Grocery Store Could be Coming to Chicago’s Food Deserts

Block Club Chicago 9/14

Stater Bros Opening Grocery Store in Chino, CA

Shelby Report 9/13

Sprouts to Open 40 Stores in 2024

Grocery Dive 9/13

ALDI Rolls Out New Website and Opens 2 Stores

Winsight Grocery Business 9/14

Lidl to Open its 173rd Store in NJ

Winsight Grocery Business 9/12

Savi Provisions Opens in Charlotte NC

Franchising.com 9/11

400th Sprouts Store Opens in Haddon Township, NJ Shelby Report 9/11

Kroger and Albertson’s Agree to Sell 413 Stores in Connection with $24.6B Merger Shopping Center Business 9/11

Sprouts Opens its 400th Store; 30 More on the Way Retail and Leisure International 9/11

Fareway Breaks Ground on Site in Hull, IA

Shelby Report 9/8

FOOD HALL NEWS

Ingka Centres Announces Launch of Plant-Forward Food Hall in San Francisco Retail and Leisure International 9/14

Spartanburg’s (SC) First Food Hall Coming in 2024

Upstate Business Journal 9/13

Business Owners Find Tasty Opportunity at Detroit’s New Whatcha Wanna Eat Food Hall Click on Detroit 9/12

Wonder, a New Dining Concept in Brooklyn, May be the Future of Good Eating BK Reader 9/12

Oakley Kitchen Food Hall to Expand to Former Casa Figueroa Space in Pleasant Ridge, OH Cincinnati Business Courier 9/12

Upcoming San Antonio Food Hall Make Ready Market Holds Sneak Peek Event San Antonio Current 9/11

La Crosse Wisconsin Food Hall (LAX) Hosts Open House Mid-Construction WXOW.com 9/10

A Montebello CA Food Hall is a Happy Place for Latinos and Marketers Are Taking Note AOL 9/9

Solaire Social Food Hall Under Construction in Downtown Silver Spring MD Source of the Spring 9/9

Hot DC Food Hall Opening: The Square Axios 9/6

FOOD & BEVERAGE

Red Robin is in 2nd or 3rd Inning of Comeback Plan

Nation’s Restaurant News 9/18

Nacho Shack Opening 2 Units in Tampa/St. Petersburg Ares Verdict Food Service 9/15

Freddy’s Keeps Focus on Franchisees; Will Hit 500 Units This Fall and 800 by YE 2026 QSR Magazine 9/14

European Bakery La Boulangerie Boul’Mich Opening in Miami

QSR Magazine 9/14

50+ Unit Just Love Coffee Expands to Nashville

QSR Magazine 9/14

124 Unit Bonchon Preps to Open Units in Alabama and Arizona

QSR Magazine 9/14

7 Brew Announces Second San Antonio Opening

QSR Magazine 9/14

Urban Plates Opens Fourth Bay Area Location

QSR Magazine 9/13

Chronic Tacos Opens in Pasadena, CA RestaurantNews.com 9/13

15-Unit Cilantro Taco Grill Wants to Hit 1,000 Stores in a Decade

QSR Magazine 9/13

The Urban Juicer Arrives in Philadelphia Airport World 9/13

District Taco Announces 10 Unit Development Deal for NY and NJ

RestaurantNews.com 9/12

How Ford’s Garage is Preparing for the Future of Full Serve Restaurants

Nation’s Restaurant News 9/11

Halal Guys Announce Five Store Openings in the Fall

QSR Magazine 9/11

Handel’s Ice Cream Expects 30+ Store Openings for the Year

QSR Magazine 9/11

Retail Roundup

Stoner’s Pizza Joint to Expand Florida Footprint w/3 Tampa Stores

Pizza Marketplace 9/11

In SF, Outset Coffee Finds Ripe Market for Fruit Lattes

Daily Coffee News 9/11

Layne’s Chicken Fingers Expands in Beaumont, TX

QSR Web 9/11

SAMBAZON Acai Bowls Opening in Fort Lauderdale

QSR Magazine 9/8

Chick Fil-A Spinoff Little Blue Menu Set to Open in Maryland

Verdict Food Service 9/8

Shawarma Press Continues Texas Expansion

RestaurantNews.com 9/7

Big Flavor Brands Launches Cannoli Kitchen Pizza Franchise

Pizza Marketplace 9/7

Mountain Mike’s Opens 2nd Fort Worth Unit

Pizza Marketplace 9/7

Italian Concept Mr. Espresso Opens First US Store in San Francisco

QSR Magazine 9/6

From Spanish Sisters, Bluebell Coffee Blooms in California

Daily Coffee News 9/6

LOCAL MARKET NEWS

Downtown Raleigh Sees Increase in Visitors and Spending

Costar 9/15

Availabilities Limited for Smaller Tenants in Kansas City

Costar 9/15

Super Sun Belt Markets Phoenix and San Antonio Lead in Retail Demand

Costar 9/13

LA Malls Do Better Than US Average

Bisnow 9/12

Salt Lake City Ranks Among Top Retail Rent Growth Markets in 2023

Costar 9/11

Clinton Township, MI Mall Lands Kids Empire, Windsor, Lovesac, Box Lunch and JD Sports Macomb Daily 9/11

Las Vegas Retail Rents Climb by Nearly 9% Annually in August Costar 9/8

Newark Looks to Draw Tenants to Vacant Retail Space

Costar 9/7

Phoenix’s Top Malls Play Key Role in Record Low for Retail Vacancies

Phoenix ABC 15 9/6

Indianapolis Considers Pedestrian Only Zone at Downtown’s Monument Circle

Costar 9/6

RETAIL CHAIN STORE CLOSINGS AND CONTRACTION

Tulsa Promenade Mall Closes—Dillard’s to Remain Open

Fox 23 News 9/17

Joann Undergoes Restructuring & Layoffs; No Word on Store Closures Retail Dive 9/14

American Eagle Sues Westfield Over San Francisco Mall Conditions CNN 9/13

Issue No. 12 |

Join me in Atlanta in two weeks for the 2023 CREW National Convention! And see my keynote: Retail 25: Opportunities and Challenges at the Quarter Century Mark! Only a few years ago many, if not most, of the headlines about shopping centers were decrying, “Retail Apocalypse.” Bloomberg even launched a game on their website. “The American Mall Game,” where players were charged with saving a dying shopping center, complete with real mall rats. And that was before the challenges of a global pandemic. Yet, only a few years later, the retail sector has emerged as the darling of commercial real estate.

Of all the commercial real estate property types, retail is the most challenging to understand because it moves the fastest. It must. In the digital age consumer tastes are evolving faster than ever before. But it also means that retail has a short memory… maybe too short. In this informative and entertaining session, I will explore and detail where retail is today, versus where it was and share where he thinks the opportunities and the challenges of tomorrow are.

THE GALLELLI GAZETTE Retail Roundup

King of Prussia Mall Welcomes Versace, Canada Goose, Brilliant Earth, Face Foundrie et al Philly Voice 9/12

Rite Aid Closing Multiple (3) Bartell Drugs Locations in Seattle Metro Bringing YTD Total to 8 Connect CRE 9/11

Nike Closing Flagship Portland Store

The Messenger 9/11

Soft Surroundings Files BK: A Retail Phoenix Hopes to Rise From its Ashes USA Herald 9/11

639-Unit Torrid Lays Off 5% of HQ Staff

Retail Dive 9/7

Majority of Party City Stores Will Stay Open as Chain Emerges from Bankruptcy ABC 7 KVIA 9/7

Bankruptcy Court Approves Party City Exit Plan

Retail Dive 9/7

M&A MANIA

Instacart Lifts Target IPO Share Price

Grocery Dive 9/15

Carolina Herrera & Pace Rabanne Owner Puig Plans 2024 IPO

Fashion Network 9/14

Even w/Divestiture Deal, Kroger-Albertson’s Merger Faces Challenging Odds Grocery Dive 9/14

Birkenstock Announces Plans for IPO

PYMNTS 9/13

Epic Burger Acquires All Meatheads Locations

QSR Magazine 9/13

Kroger & Albertson’s Make Dal w/C&S Wholesale Grocers to Sell Off 413 Stores in Pursuit of Merger

Supermarket News 9/11

Kroger CEO Says Grocery Store Divestitures Should Satisfy Regulators

Phoenix Business Journal 9/11

Reese Witherspoon Sells Majority Stake in Draper James

Retail Dive 9/6

Garrick H. Brown

Gallelli Real Estate gbrown@gallellire.com

(916) 789-3324

ABOUT THE WRITER

Garrick Brown is one of the leading real estate analysts in the United States; he is a 25-year industry veteran analyst and thought leader in the space, as well as an experienced manager of large, national teams of researchers. He has a strong background in all the commercial real estate product types, though for the last 15 years he has primarily been known for his work in the retail space.

Garrick is regularly quoted on real estate, retail and economic matters by the Wall Street Journal, the CBS Evening News, NBC News, CNBC, National Public Radio, Women’s Wear Daily and dozens of Business Journals and other industry publications.

Mr. Brown is a major business influencer; he has over 21,000 followers on LinkedIn, where he regularly posts economic and commercial real estate commentary to an audience consisting primarily of brokers, retailers, developers, site selection professionals, appraisers, lenders, investors, private equity, economic development professionals and business media.

Garrick also produces a regular podcast, The Retail Grind, with Bill Yanek, the CEO of ConnexFM (North America’s largest facilities management trade group), where he explores the latest economic, retail and real estate news.

Mr. Brown is frequently asked to contribute to major industry publications. He authored the retail real estate portion of the 2023 edition of the Urban Land Institute and PriceWaterhouseCoopers’ trademark industry publication, Emerging Trends in Real Estate.

Garrick is a renown public speaker on economic, real estate and retail matters. He is known for his dynamic and entertaining speaking style and for his ability to tell the stories behind the data, synthesizing trends and connecting dots beyond the obvious. He regularly speaks to private and academic groups (Baruch College, Florida State University, Harvard Graduate School of Design, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate, etc.), and all the major, national commercial real estate-focused trade groups (BOMA, California Bankers Association, CCIM, ConnexFM, CREW, ICSC, NAIOP, Urban Land Institute, etc.).

Mr. Brown currently works as a freelance writer and consultant for a number of private clients. In addition to his public speaking engagements, Garrick frequently advises corporate real estate teams regarding economic conditions, market forecasting, business and brokerage strategies.

His previous experience includes managing Cushman & Wakefield’s retail research for the Americas, as well as managing commercial real estate research functions (all property types) for the Western United States for Cassidy Turley and Newmark. He began his career as a research associate with Grubb & Ellis in Kansas City, Missouri and later managed research operations for Colliers International for the Indianapolis, Indiana and Sacramento, California markets.

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