Jan. 23, 2019
www.gfb.org
Vol. 37 No. 2
GEORGIA AG FORECAST: CROP OUTLOOK CLOUDED BY STORM, TRADE The 2019 Georgia Ag Forecast Series underscored a variety of challenges facing Georgia’s farmers as they move into the 2019 crop year, including the ongoing recovery from Hurricane Michael and continuing low commodities Georgia Farm Bureau President Gerald Long, speaking at the Jan. 22 meeting in Macon, said the crop damage from Hurricane Michael was the worst he’s experienced. “It’ll be several years getting past that,” Long said. “Some folks are still picking cotton. We’ve never picked cotton the first part of the next year. It’s been a very challenging year. It doesn’t really matter what type of agriculture, and the impact is not just for farmers.” Long, who is from Decatur County, noted that one cotton gin in southwest Georgia was expecting to handle 180,000 bales but will wind up ginning approximately 50,000 bales. Adam Rabinowitz “I challenge each one of us as leaders in whatever part of the industry. We’re going to have to be very understanding,” Long said. “The bankers and everyone else. I understand the bankers have got their head against the wall trying to figure out what to do to refinance those farmers.” Beyond the issues created by the hurricane, the event addressed other themes, including international trade. “There’s a lot of things going on right now in the ag sector,” said UGA Assistant Professor of Agricultural and Applied Economics Adam Rabinowitz. “You really do hope at times you can pull something out of a hat that sys this is the golden egg or the rabbit. The situation is a little rough.” Cotton, peanut, corn and soybean producers are all wrangling with trade issues and it is unclear how long it will last. Rabinowitz said cotton exports are declining in part because of increasing strength of the U.S. dollar. Increases in ending stocks are contributing to lower U.S. cotton prices, which UGA forecast between 65 cents and 75 cents per pound. Rabinowitz forecast net cotton return of $310 per acre for irrigated land and $90 an acre for non-irrigated land (not accounting for land rent). After record peanut production in 2017, a significant reduction in acreage in 2018 pushed production down. Overall demand has increased steadily in spite of declines in exports over the past three years. Ending 2017 stocks of more than two billion pounds were the third highest in the last 10 years. -continued on next page