February 7, 2018
www.gfb.org
Vol. 36 No. 3
AG FORECAST SERIES: OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES AHEAD FOR FARMERS The overall takeaway from the 2018 Georgia Ag Forecast series is that the state’s economic outlook for farmers presents a mixed bag. University of Georgia College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences economists expect rising prices for some farm commodities, declines in others. And the national political landscape leaves funding for farm programs – both in the short term and the long term – in limbo. “There is a lot of good news out there,” said UGA Center for Agribusiness & Economic Development Director Kent Wolfe during the Feb. 5 installment at Georgia Farm Bureau in Macon. “Unemployment is down. Wages are growing. There is increasing per capita income, and the consumer segment of our economy really drives the economy as a whole going forward.” Wolfe, who presented the forecast for livestock producers, said consumers are buying more beef, pork and broilers, but more is available. “We’re going to see an increase of protein on the market of Kent Wolfe about 3.8 percent,” Wolfe said. “When we think about supplies going up like that, it’s going to have a negative, or downward pressure on the price of those commodities. We are looking forward to continued domestic consumption growth and exports are expected to continue as well, but we need to make sure that our production doesn’t outstrip our demand, or we’ll see prices stall.” Wolfe said demand for dairy products is declining, and with growing production could result in declining prices received by dairymen. UGA Extension Economist Don Shurley presented the outlook for field crops Notably, the 2017 cotton crop ended up better than expected after hurricanes ravaged key cotton-producing states, including Georgia. Exports are growing, and China is approaching the point at which the difference between what it produces and what its textile manufacturers need dictates either an increase in that country’s cotton acreage or relaxing its cap on imported cotton. “When that happens, if we have a good crop here and have good available supply, we’ll be able -continued on next page