RISK CENTER Colombia security overview G4S Risk Consultancy Task No. RCG4S012019
Peacebuildin g
The armed conflict has evolved and generated a new context. There have been unprecedented advances in the peace building process with the FARC, and we are on the verge of a peace process with the ELN. However the implementation of the peace accord with the FARC implies pressing issues for the Colombian government: • •
•
Economic and social reintegration of former combatants. Law enforcement or legitimate authority in the areas left by FARC combatants. (remain killings of leftist community leaders, social activists, and members of the Patriotic March party). Criminal organizations set to grow their influence.
Areas of dispute over criminal economies The Colombian government is also faced with immediate obstacles in some departments of the country due to the presence of criminal organizations with varying degrees of control over criminal economies. Peacebuilding efforts and strategies are having to focus heavily on trying to prevent criminal economies historically run by the FARC from falling into the hands of other criminal groups and FARC dissidents.
Source: FIP. (January 2017). Environments and risks of the transitional standardization zones. Retrieved from: Fundaciรณn Ideas para la Paz
Departments
Key Criminal Organizations At present, the most significant criminal groups in Colombia are the dissident members of FARC, the ELN, and the GAO such as the Rastrojos and the Clan del Golfo. These organizations are currently engaged in turf battles for control over what remain the most important areas for criminal economies.
Amazonas Antioquia Arauca Atlántico Bolívar Boyacá Caldas Caquetá Cauca Casanare Cesar Chocó Córdoba Cundinamarca
Municipalitie Clan del s Golfo 5 70 x 10 9 x 22 x 13 x 6 5 x 11 x 9 20 x 17 x 28 x 14
Rastrojos x x x x x x x
Águilas Negras x x x x x x
Guaviare
33
Huila La Guajira Magdalena
3 8 18
x x
x x
x x x
Meta
12
x
x
Nariño
15
x
x
x
Norte de Santander Putumayo Quindío Risaralda San Andrés Santander Sucre
7 9 6 6 1 14 22
x x x x x x
x x x x x
x x x x
Tolima
4
Valle del Cauca Vichada Total
19 4 429
x 21
x 17
x 17
Others ACG, Disisdencias Farc Oficina de Envigado ELN, Disidencias FARC Oficina de Envigado Botalones FIAC Nuevo Renacer; La empresa Libertadores del Vichada; FIAC; bloque Meta ELN, EPL Libertadores del Vichada; FIAC; bloque Meta Los de policarpa; los del Ejido, Disidencia FARC La constru, Disidencias FARC Cordillera Cordillera FIAC; Autodefensas campesinas Los machos Libertadores del Vichada; FIAC
The following are the principal short-medium term scenarios that G4S identify for each criminal organization: FARC peace process: o Most likely scenario: High levels of new desertions will reveal the recruitment of those that want to continue performing criminal activities for personal enrichment in GAO. o Second most likely scenario. As an political organization, FARC Initiatives will emerge to create or modify peace agreements to avoid desertions – or attempted desertions. ELN peace talks: o Most likely scenario: the government will continue the negotiations with the rebel group but preventing further hostilities through a military interposition in the territory. o Second most likely scenario: with resources providing a flow of revenues that enable belligerents to continue fighting, the negotiation will collapse or the government will suspend temporarily the process to achieve new terms with ELN. GAO: o Most likely scenario. Continue to be primary targets for the armed forces as revenue sharing agreements between criminal factions promote strong networks to control criminal economies. o Second most likely scenario. Clan del Golfo will expand their influence through alliances with small criminal organizations that operate in remote areas of the country, specially FARC dissidence.
Guajira San Andrés Atlántico
Magdalena
Cesar
Risk Index
Sucre
Córdoba
N. Santander
Bolívar
Santander
Antioquia
Arauca
Boyacá
Chocó
Caldas
Casanare
Risaralda
Cundinamarca Vichada
Tolima
Bogotá
Valle Del Cauca
In this new context of armed conflict, we see that the continuation of criminal economies and the institutions created to support their various actors represent a great risk for the peace building phase. It is possible that a disturbing context of criminal economies will be generated in this phase, changing the rules of the game and the ELN redeployed to fallback and border zones, reducing and focusing the confrontation, and modifying their strategy.
Meta Guainía Cauca Huila Guaviare Nariño Caquetá Vaupés
Putumayo
Amazonas
>6051 45-31 25-19 15-1
Depending on the strategic capabilities and dissuasive capacity of Former State administration, these actors could assume new rules, adapt, or even try to sabotage the peace process through violence and intimidation. Reports produced for intelligence agencies and regional authorities established that earnings from extortion, coca and illegal mining are exclusive in Nariño; Cauca, northeast Antioquia, Arauca, Valle del Cauca, Meta, Guaviare and Catatumbo.
Crime figures in Colombia 2019 (trend Jan – Aug.)
11353 cases in 2019 12389 cases in 2018
01
Homicides
02
Kidnapping
03
Extorti on
04
Muggings
05
Car Thefts
06
Commercial Burglaries
07
Burglary Of Residences
207cases in 2019 193 cases in 2018 4903 cases in 2019 5341 cases in 2018 229692 cases in 2019 176257 cases in 2018 8531 cases in 2019 5232 cases in 2018 50247 cases in 2019 52498 cases in 20178 41408 cases in 2019 43120 cases in 2018
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DISCLAIMER La información contenida en este documento proviene de diferentes fuentes; las cuales se verifican y analizan con analistas para desarrollar el proyecto. El análisis objetivo descrito aquí, en ninguna media forma parte de la posición política o visión de G4S.