F&W Forestry Report - Winter 2025

Forestry Report A PUBLICATION OF F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

WINTER 2025-26 | NO. 167

No Relief For Stumpage Prices, Big News Is Legislative & Regulatory

By Marshall Thomas, President of F&W Forestry Services, Inc.

Unfortunately, stumpage prices across our operating regions remain flat to declining, with a few exceptions. A look at the graphs on pages 9-13 quickly identifies the regions and products where there has been significant upward or downward price movement.

Periodically, we highlight trends shown in the Institute of Supply Management® Manufacturing PMI® survey.

Published monthly, this data is a strong indicator of where various manufacturing sectors are in terms of growth—or lack thereof—and it reflects the current situation for our business.

For paper products, there have only been three positive months out of 42 since June 2022. For wood products, in the same period, there have only been two positive months. Consistency is a good attribute, but it sure would be preferable to be consistently positive.

And then there’s the weather. We are currently in a La Niña pattern, and the forecast for December through February is for drier-than-normal conditions across the South, average conditions in the Northeast and Coastal West, and potentially wetter-than-normal weather in Idaho. Dry weather in the South means logging can occur almost anywhere, and that is usually bad news for timber stumpage prices. In other regions, temperature is more important—when the ground is frozen, loggers can log.

We are starting to see signs of adjustment in timberland

markets. Prices have been rising for the past few years, but will this trend continue? See the article on page 2 for a closer look at timberland prices and demand trends.

Of course, the biggest news in our industry lately has been mill closures and production cutbacks. That trend continues. Page 3 provides a rundown of the latest closures, investments, and curtailments. Not included in the rundown is Weyerhaeuser’s recent announcement that it plans to produce metallurgical coal from small trees—a potential replacement for some of the pulp mill demand we are losing. We’ll have more on that in the next newsletter.

All that is pretty much business as usual for us lately.

What is new—and gaining momentum—is the level of lobbying and legislative activity focused on our sector.

Starting with the Disaster Reforestation Act, Georgia Congressman Buddy Carter and Forest Landowners Association President Scott Jones co-authored an opinion piece in the Washington Times highlighting the importance of tax relief for forest landowners who lose timber in federally declared disaster areas. See the article on page 5.

On page 6, you’ll find two articles discussing the need to include forest landowners in trade assistance and agricultural aid packages. Notably, the call for inclusion came from state agriculture commissioners and secretaries from 11 states. Since when have we received that kind of attention and support?

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INSIDE THIS ISSUE PAGE 2

PAGES 4

PAGE 5

PAGES 6-7

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Forest Land Market Trends

Wood Fiber Markets and the RFS

EUDR Delayed

Leaders Push For Forestry Assistance

New WOTUS and ESA Rules Released

The Dirt On Dirt: Land Market Trends

By Jody Strickland, F&W’s Chief Business Officer & Qualifying Broker

The rural land market continues to evolve as economic forces, demographic shifts, and global pressures reshape both buyer motivations and seller behavior. In recent years, land has reasserted itself as one of the most stable longterm investment classes—one that can perform uniquely well during periods of uncertainty. Drawing from current market data and onthe-ground insights, the following highlight where the market stands today, what is driving change, and what landowners and investors should watch in the coming year.

Compounding the issue, stumpage prices are down due to a number of factors, including a flat housing market that is creating less demand for lumber, production curtailments, and recent mill closures. This mismatch suggests that buyers are valuing timberland less for near-term revenue potential and more for long-term security, recreation, carbon value, and future development opportunities. Key indicators such as longer days on the market, dips in pending sales, cooling price growth, and widening gaps between NOI and values all point to the start of a market correction. Buyers are pushing back on inflated prices, prompting sellers to adjust their expectations and become more negotiable to close deals.

Across the U.S., the once hot real estate market is starting to cool. Land prices rose to historic highs over the last five years, causing an increasing disconnect between net operating income (NOI) and land values.

Several trends should be monitored as the market evolves. Housing starts—a key signal of timber demand and development effects—remain central to forecasting future property values. The base forecast sees modest growth through 2026 before demographic factors, including an aging population and slower population growth, are expected to dampen demand in future years. Currently, there is still a large volume of listings available, but this is expected to recalibrate as sellers adjust to lower price expectations and longer days on the market, signaling greater buyer selectivity. Interest rates and thus borrowing costs, were lowered again in December, which directly influences valuations. Lower interest rates generally drive higher deal competition and valuations, making financing more favorable for buyers and smoothing transaction timelines.

Forestry Report For further information on material in this report or to discuss your forestry needs, contact the nearest F&W office or the Albany headquarters at: PO Box 3610, Albany, GA 31706-3610 229.883.0505 / fax 229.883.0515 www.fwforestry.com Marshall Thomas, President Jeff Jordan, Chief Operating Officer Jody Strickland, Chief Business Officer Sonya Farmer, Chief Financial Officer Stephen Logan, Chief Information Officer Brent Williamson, Forest Operations The F&W Forestry Report is produced by: Bates Associates 770.451.0370 batespr@bellsouth.net ©2026 F&W Forestry Services, Inc.

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Opportunities exist on both sides of the table. For buyers, the current environment offers a chance to make strategic land purchases at a reasonable price ahead of the next inflation cycle. Timberland and recreational tracts are expected to

continue appreciating over the longterm. For sellers, demand remains solid. The buyer pool is increasingly diverse with ownership objectives ranging from quality timber, recreation, and ESG-aligned investments such as biodiversity offsets, carbon credits, and conservation easements. Demand is also rising for utility, solar, and data center sites as well as from urban lifestyle buyers seeking remote-work homesteads and financial investors seeking inflation-proof, tangible assets.

The political uncertainty early last year created a “Trump Effect,” causing both buyers and sellers to pause. This hesitation has largely faded because land maintains its reputation as a long-term, stable, inflation-resistant investment. The volatility in macroeconomic conditions creates uncertainty. Often, when the stock market is at all-time highs, savvy investors sell stock and buy tangible assets like land. The enduring truth remains: “They aren’t making any more of it.”

In the near term, land prices are stabilizing at lower levels, and inventory is declining as sellers adjust.

But despite short-term fluctuations, the rural land market remains fundamentally strong and benefits from a resilient demand and a broadening buyer base. Land continues to serve as a hedge against inflation and a longterm asset that endures. As Gerald O’Hara reminded us in Gone With the Wind, “Land is the only thing that lasts.”

In a world defined by uncertainty, land remains a tangible, enduring, and profoundly valuable asset.

Buy dirt!

F&W Forestry Services and Fountains Land provide clients with land marketing experts who connect landowners with buyers worldwide.

Our skilled brokerage team has been helping clients achieve success since 1980.

WINTER 2025-26 • WWW.FWFORESTRY.COM

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Industry Consolidation, Investment, & Curtailments A wave of strategic moves across the forest products sector underscores how companies are positioning for the next phase of the housing cycle, evolving fiber markets, and capital discipline.

Leading the latest developments is a major consolidation among timber REITs, alongside portfolio reshuffling, targeted mill investments, and continued production curtailments amid weak lumber markets.

RAYONIER-POTLATCHDELTIC MERGER The biggest news of the fourth quarter of 2025 was the announcement that Rayonier and PotlatchDeltic have agreed to combine in an all-stock merger of equals, creating the second-largest publicly traded timber and wood products company in North America.

Based on October 2025 share prices, the combined company is expected to have a pro forma equity market capitalization of approximately $7.1 billion and an enterprise value of $8.2 billion.

The transaction brings together roughly 4.2 million acres of timberland across 11 states, with more than three-quarters located in the South, complemented by nearly one million acres in the Northwest.

The combined company will also operate seven wood products facilities, including six lumber mills with total capacity of about 1.2 billion board feet and one plywood mill.

Beyond scale, the merger is aimed at unlocking value across several platforms. Management highlighted opportunities in higher-and-better-use real estate development, particularly in Arkansas, Florida, and Georgia, as well as expanded land-based and natural climate solutions, including solar, carbon, and minerals. Annual synergies of roughly $40 million are expected within two years of closing.

Leadership will reflect a balance

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of both organizations, with Rayonier CEO Mark McHugh continuing as president and CEO and PotlatchDeltic CEO Eric Cremers serving as executive chair for two years. The new company will be headquartered in Atlanta, with major regional offices in Spokane, Wash., and Wildlight, Fla. WEYERHAEUSER RECYCLES CAPITAL Weyerhaeuser continues to emphasize active portfolio management, announcing a series of acquisitions and divestitures designed to enhance timberland quality while maintaining balancesheet strength.

In the third quarter, the company completed $459 million in acquisitions, including 117,000 acres in North Carolina and Virginia and a targeted 10,000-acre purchase in Washington with strong cash-flow characteristics. At the same time, Weyerhaeuser advanced divestitures of non-core timberlands totaling more than $410 million, with additional sales expected to close in early 2026.

Management noted that total divestiture proceeds are expected to exceed acquisition spending, reinforcing the company’s strategy of recycling capital in a tax-efficient manner while continuing to return cash to shareholders.

GP EXPANDS/CONTRACTS Georgia-Pacific announced an $800 million investment to modernize and expand its Alabama River Cellulose mill in Perdue Hill, Ala. The project will significantly increase fluff and market pulp capacity and, once completed in 2027, will make the facility the largest and one of the most technologically advanced softwood pulp mills in the country.

At the same time, G-P announced the permanent closure of its Memphis Cellulose mill and Technology and Innovation Center, affecting roughly 150 employees. The decision reflects

challenging market conditions and the company’s broader effort to align its asset base with long-term demand trends.

WEST FRASER CLOSES GEORGIA MILL West Fraser also announced the permanent closure of its Augusta, Ga., lumber mill, further highlighting the pressure facing Southern sawmilling operations amid weak market conditions. The company cited persistently soft lumber demand and the loss of economically viable residual fiber outlets as key factors behind the decision, noting that the facility was no longer competitive under current market conditions.

The closure will impact approximately 130 employees and reduce West Fraser’s overall lumber production capacity by roughly 140 million board feet. The Augusta shutdown is part of a broader effort by the company to rationalize capacity across its North American footprint while prioritizing capital discipline during a prolonged housing and lumber market downturn.

INTERFOR EXTENDS CURTAILMENTS Interfor announced further temporary lumber curtailments across its North American operations, reducing fourth-quarter production by approximately 26 percent compared with more normalized levels earlier in the year. The company cited persistently weak lumber prices and economic uncertainty.

BOTTOM LINE From large-scale consolidation and capital redeployment to selective investment and disciplined pullbacks, forest industry companies are repositioning for a slower near-term market while laying groundwork for long-term growth once housing and demand fundamentals improve.

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Fixing America’s 50-Million-Ton Sawdust Problem In a recent Agri-Pulse opinion piece, David P. Tenny, president and CEO of the National Alliance of Forest Owners, issued a clear warning—and an equally clear call to action—about the escalating fiber-market crisis facing rural America. As pulp and paper mills continue to close or downsize, 50 million tons of annual wood fiber processing capacity have vanished, leaving forest owners and sawmills with massive quantities of stranded material and shrinking markets for their lowestvalue products.

As Tenny puts it, “That means each year, 50 million tons of woody fiber… are stranded, wiping out hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for forest owners and sawmills.”

Modern forestry depends on markets for every part of the tree—not just high-value sawlogs. Tenny explains the economics with a simple analogy: “It would be like a rancher raising cattle for only the prime cuts of beef and throwing the rest away—no business could survive that way.” Roughly 20 percent of a log’s value comes from

chips, bark, and sawdust, and without buyers for those residuals, mills face rising disposal costs, closures, and downward pressure on rural economies.

These ripple effects extend far beyond forest owners. “This…drives up lumber prices, threatening to make housing even less affordable at a time when the nation is in a housing crisis.”

Tenny argues that the solution is both “simple” and “commonsense”: clarify the definitions of woody biomass in the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) so that more forms of wood fiber can qualify as renewable fuel feedstocks.

As written and currently interpreted, the RFS excludes most material from private lands, sawmill residuals, and even hazardous-fuel removal from federal forests. According to Tenny, this regulatory bottleneck prevents the very investments needed to convert stranded wood into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

“A simple clarification would open

the door for new investment in SAF, create a market for stranded wood residuals and strengthen domestic fuel production.”

By enabling wood fiber to move into emerging biofuel markets, Tenny notes, policymakers could simultaneously reduce waste, lower wildfire risks, bolster rural jobs, and help keep private forests as forests.

“Private forest owners can only keep their forests intact, healthy and working if they have markets that support investments in management, harvesting and replanting,” Tenny writes. “Strong markets keep working forests on the landscape so they can continue delivering cleaner water, more wildlife habitat, more carbon sequestration and more resilience to wildfires.”

QUICK LINK CLICK HERE TO READ DAVE TENNY’S COMPLETE COLUMN, “SOLVING AMERICA’S 50-MILLION-TON-A-YEAR SAWDUST PROBLEM.”

What’s Wrong With The RFS—And Why It Matters The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is a federal program that requires a certain volume of renewable fuel—such as ethanol, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)—to replace or reduce the use of petroleum-based fuels in the U.S. transportation sector.

WHERE THE PROBLEM LIES While the law recognizes woody biomass as an eligible renewable feedstock, EPA’s current interpretation excludes most of the wood fiber that forest owners and sawmills produce, including most trees harvested from private lands, residuals from sawmills (chips, bark, sawdust), fuel-reduction material removed from federal forests at high wildfire risk. These exclusions F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

create a major barrier to investment in biofuels derived from wood fiber.

WHY THIS MATTERS NOW In recent months, more than 50 million tons of wood fiber have lost their market. Landowners rely on pulpwood markets to keep their forests healthy, strong, and growing, while sawmills depend on selling residuals to stay profitable and avoid closures.

Airlines are aggressively seeking SAF to meet federal and corporate emissions commitments. New markets for residual fiber would support rural economies and forest health.

WHAT A FIX WOULD DO A clarification of woody biomass

definitions under the RFS would: • Open the door to large-scale SAF production from wood residuals • Support forest management and reduce wildfire risk • Help keep private forests intact and economically viable • Reduce waste and disposal costs • Strengthen domestic fuel supply chains EPA does not need new authority—a regulatory clarification would unlock significant new markets for stranded wood fiber and provide a win for forest owners, rural communities, the biofuels sector, and U.S. climate goals.

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EU Agrees To Delay, Simplify Deforestation Regulation The European Parliament has approved another one-year delay of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), pushing the compliance deadline to Dec. 30, 2026.

In addition to the delay, the European Commission will be responsible for conducting a simplification review of the EUDR by the end of April 2026—before the revised implementation date—to evaluate the regulation’s administrative burden and overall impact. That review could open the door to further EUDR changes.

The extension follows sustained concerns from EU member states, trading partners, and industry groups that companies were not prepared to meet the regulation’s extensive compliance obligations.

For wood products, the most problematic requirement remains the EUDR’s geolocation mandate, which requires traceability to the individual plot of land where timber is harvested.

U.S. forestry stakeholders argue this requirement imposes excessive costs and technical barriers, particularly given fragmented private forest ownership and the widespread use of blended fiber sources.

U.S. exports of wood and wood products to the EU exceed $3.5 billion annually, and industry groups continue to warn that the EUDR functions as a non-tariff trade barrier rather than a targeted environmental measure.

While the U.S. forestry sector shares the EU’s goal of eliminating deforestation, it has emphasized that American forest products are not a driver of global forest loss and are produced under robust regulatory and sustainability frameworks.

The delay provides temporary relief for the U.S. forestry sector but does little to resolve fundamental concerns.

While additional time may allow companies to prepare for compliance, industry leaders and state and federal elected officials continue to urge

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to engage with EU leaders on recalibrating the EUDR to better reflect the realities of sustainable forest management in low-risk countries like the United States—and to ensure that well-managed forests and long-standing trade relationships are not penalized under the guise of environmental protection.

The U.S. forestry sector is also expected to press its case during the Commission’s upcoming simplification review.

The EUDR requires companies to prove that certain products sold in the EU—including wood, cocoa, coffee, soy, palm oil, rubber, and livestock— are not linked to deforestation or forest degradation. Formally adopted in June 2023, the regulation is intended to address global forest loss driven primarily by agricultural expansion but has faced growing criticism over its complexity and feasibility.

Op-Ed Highlights Urgent Need For Disaster Reforestation Act A recent Washington Times opinion piece reinforces the urgent need for congressional action on the Disaster Reforestation Act (DRA), warning that America’s private forests are increasingly vulnerable to catastrophic natural disasters.

Written by Georgia Congressman Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Forest Landowners Association CEO Scott Jones, the op-ed underscores the critical role private forests play in supplying wood products, supporting rural jobs, and strengthening national security. Yet when disasters strike, forest landowners are left without meaningful recovery tools.

In 2024, Hurricane Helene damaged more than 2.3 million acres of forestland across the Southeast and F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

caused over $1.7 billion in timber losses. Mill closures have further destabilized the forestry sector and reduced market access for landowners.

Under current tax law, forest landowners can deduct only the original cost basis of destroyed timber, often a fraction of its value. The DRA would correct this inequity by allowing landowners to deduct the fair market value of timber lost in federally declared disasters, aligning forestry with other agricultural sectors and providing the resources needed to replant and recover.

Support for the DRA is bipartisan and broad, with backing from dozens of forestry, agriculture, conservation, and business organizations nationwide. As severe storms,

wildfires, pests, and diseases become more frequent, the need for a permanent solution is clear.

As Congress considers tax policy, forest landowners are encouraged to contact their members of Congress and urge them to support passage of the DRA A permanent fix is needed to ensure landowners can recover from catastrophic losses, keep forests intact, and continue supplying the wood products that underpin rural economies and everyday life.

QUICK LINK CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE DRA AND FIND CONTACT INFORMATION FOR YOUR ELECTED OFFICIALS. WINTER 2025-26 • WWW.FWFORESTRY.COM

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Forestry Sector Presses For Inclusion In Trade Assistance Forestry organizations have been pressing the Trump Administration to ensure private forest landowners, family forestry businesses, and timber product manufacturers are included in federal trade assistance programs as new relief payments for agriculture begin to take shape.

In October, the Hardwood Federation sent a letter to senior administration officials—including the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, and Treasury, as well as the U.S. Trade Representative— calling attention to the severe and ongoing impacts of trade disruptions on the hardwood sector. Prior to 2018, hardwood lumber was the second-largest U.S. export to China.

Retaliatory tariffs sharply reduced market access, and since then the industry estimates more than $9 billion in lost commercial opportunities, including steep declines in lumber and log exports and the loss of roughly 40,000 jobs.

More than 430 hardwood mills, manufacturers, loggers, lumberyards,

and suppliers signed on, underscoring the breadth of concern across the industry.

and producers were required to certify 2025 acreage with the Farm Service Agency (FSA) by Dec. 19.

The Forest Landowners Association (FLA), the American Forest Foundation (AFF), and the National Alliance of Forest Owners (NAFO) echoed these concerns in a separate letter urging the administration to explicitly include timber producers and family forest owners in trade relief efforts, warning that continued exclusion threatens working forests, rural jobs, and longterm supply chains.

Importantly for forestry stakeholders, the USDA has indicated that $1 billion in payments will be reserved for commodities not covered under the FBA Program, including specialty crops, sugar, and potentially forestry.

Forest policy organizations report that eligibility has recently been clarified to include forest owners, though details on payment formulas, documentation requirements, and timelines remain limited. Early indications suggest that competition for these funds will be intense and that only a small share may ultimately reach hardwood producers or forest landowners.

While recent federal attention has focused largely on row-crop agriculture, the administration on Dec. 8 announced $12 billion in one-time Farmer Bridge Payments to offset trade-related market disruptions and rising production costs. Of that total, up to $11 billion will be distributed through the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program, which primarily supports major row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, cotton, and peanuts. Payments are expected to be issued by February,

These developments reinforce long-standing concerns raised by forestry organizations: despite being an agricultural industry that supports rural communities and domestic manufacturing, tree growers often lack access to the same safety-net tools available to traditional agriculture.

Ag Leaders Urge Relief For Forestry In Aid Package The agriculture commissioners and secretaries from eleven states across the South and Mid Atlantic have formally called on the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Treasury to ensure that America’s forestry and timber industries are included in the Administration’s forthcoming agricultural assistance package.

The bipartisan coalition—which includes officials from Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia—emphasizes that forestry remains an essential renewable resource supporting jobs, local F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

tax bases, and small businesses throughout rural communities. Forestry also plays a critical role in forest health and long-term land stewardship.

INDUSTRY UNDER STRAIN The letter commends the administration for recent executive actions, including the Immediate Expansion of American Timber Production order and new import adjustments affecting wood products.

These moves have delivered “muchneeded stability and optimism” in timber-dependent regions. Still, commissioners warn that major headwinds persist, threatening producers at every stage of the supply chain.

Among the factors cited: • High interest rates slowing U.S. housing construction and dampening demand for wood products.

• Supply chain disruptions driving higher operating costs.

• U nfair foreign competition further weakening domestic timber markets and pressuring mills.

• New international compliance rules—particularly the EUDR— creating uncertainty for U.S. exporters despite America’s strong sustainability record.

These dynamics, the officials note, have already contributed to mill closures, reduced market access for (continued on page 7) WINTER 2025-26 • WWW.FWFORESTRY.COM

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House Speakers Urge Action To Support Forestry Sector In a show of coordinated regional advocacy, the Speakers of the House from Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina have jointly called on Congress to take immediate steps to stabilize the forestry sector amid mounting economic pressures and trade disruptions.

For decades, forestry has served as an economic backbone for the Southeastern states—supporting jobs, powering rural economies, and anchoring global supply chains. But as the Speakers note, “significant shifts in the market, regulatory barriers, and uncertainty in trade policy have contributed to mill closures throughout the region and unprecedented challenges for our forestry industry.”

Their letter underscores the severity of current market conditions and outlines the following four actions that they believe would deliver urgent relief to the industry.

• Address Barriers to Exports A key priority highlighted in the letter is the need for U.S. advocacy encouraging the European Union to approve Sulfuryl Fluoride (SF) as a permitted fumigant for Southern Yellow Pine chips exported in breakbulk vessels. The EU

currently does not allow SF—the only commercially viable fumigant for these shipments—which the Speakers identify as “one of the most significant barriers to trade impacting U.S. pine wood exports.”

• E stablish Predictable Timelines The Speakers also raise concerns over immediate-effect tariffs that cause U.S. wood products to become stranded en route to their final destination. They urge Congress to adopt a 90-day notice requirement for new tariffs to provide desperately needed market stability and predictability.

• Reopen Asian Markets he letter draws particular attention T to the prolonged closure of the Asian market—especially China—to U.S. logs and chips. This closure has “closed off a significant market opportunity for the Southeast’s forest sector.” he Speakers ask the delegation T to prioritize trade negotiations that would help reopen these markets, which they describe as critical to driving near-term demand for U.S. forest products and relieving downward pressure on prices across the supply chain.

• T ransshipment Clause inally, the Speakers call for F clarification of the Transshipment Clause, which allows U.S. Customs to apply higher tariffs when the documented origin of a product is questioned. Ambiguity in current language, they warn, creates uncertainty for trading partners and increases the risk that products made from U.S.-origin raw materials could face unintended tariff penalties.

The letter is signed by: • Nathaniel Ledbetter, Speaker of the Alabama House • Brian S. Evans, Speaker of the Arkansas House • Daniel Perez, Speaker of the Florida House • Jon G. Burns, Speaker of the Georgia House • G. Murrell Smith, Jr., Speaker of the South Carolina House Their unified message underscores both the regional scale of the forestry downturn and the urgency of federal action. As the Speakers conclude, they “look forward to continued collaboration” to secure the future of one of the nation’s most vital rural industries.

Ag Leaders Support Aid Package (continued from page 6) small timberland owners, job losses, and declining local revenues— outcomes felt throughout rural communities.

CALL FOR ASSISTANCE The commissioners argue that forestry must be treated equitably alongside other agricultural sectors in the upcoming relief package. Targeted support, they write, would help stabilize markets, bolster employment, and ensure that timber producers are equipped to withstand current challenges.

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“Including forestry and timber,” the leaders state, would strengthen “one of America’s most important renewable resource industries” and reaffirm the Administration’s commitment to a resilient and competitive agricultural economy.

Tyler Harper (Georgia), Jonathan Shell (Kentucky), Mike Strain (Louisiana), Kevin Atticks (Maryland), Steve Troxler (North Carolina), Hugh Weathers (South Carolina), Sid Miller (Texas), Matthew Lohr (Virginia), and Kent Leonhardt (West Virginia).

UNIFIED MESSAGE

Their coordinated appeal underscores the widespread concern about timber market conditions—and the crucial role federal relief could play in supporting landowners, mills, and rural communities during a period of economic volatility.

The letter concludes with a clear message of partnership: states stand ready to work with federal leaders to maintain a strong and stable forestry sector. Signatories include Rick Pate (Alabama), Wilton Simpson (Florida),

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WOTUS Rewrite Continues The debate over what constitutes “waters of the United States” (WOTUS) is again back in motion, as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of the Army (Corps) have proposed another revision to the rule defining federal jurisdiction under the Clean Water Act (CWA).

The proposed revisions follow the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision in Sackett v. EPA, which limited CWA jurisdiction to relatively permanent waters—such as streams, rivers, lakes, and oceans—and wetlands that are directly connected to those waters through a continuous surface connection. The agencies say the new proposal fully implements the Court’s direction and provides greater regulatory certainty for landowners.

WHAT’S CHANGING Under the proposed rule, federal jurisdiction would be narrowed and more clearly defined. Key elements relevant to forestry operations include: • Clearer definitions of terms such as “relatively permanent,” “tributary,”

and “continuous surface connection,” which have long caused confusion during permitting and project planning.

• A stricter standard for wetlands, requiring that they both abut a jurisdictional water and hold surface water at least during the wet season to fall under federal authority.

• Limits on tributary jurisdiction, with only those features that provide predictable and consistent flow to traditional navigable waters qualifying as WOTUS. • Preserved and clarified exclusions for certain ditches, prior converted cropland, and waste treatment systems, along with a new explicit exclusion for groundwater.

• Greater recognition of state authority, including removal of interstate waters as an automatic category of federal jurisdiction.

For forest landowners, these changes are intended to reduce the likelihood that ephemeral features, roadside ditches, or marginal wetlands trigger federal permitting requirements

for routine management activities.

NEW TERM RAISES QUESTIONS Despite its intent to provide clarity, the proposal introduces a new regulatory concept—the “wet season”—to help determine whether surface water connections are sufficient to establish jurisdiction.

While EPA says this reflects seasonal and regional variability, some legal experts have raised concerns that the term is not rooted in prior CWA regulations or the Sackett decision. This raises the possibility that the new rule could face legal challenges similar to the past definitions.

REGULATORY WHIPLASH Since the CWA was enacted in 1972, and particularly since the 2000s, the definition of federally regulated waters has shifted repeatedly with administration changes. The latest proposal moves toward a narrower, more propertyrights-focused framework, its durability remains uncertain.

Seedling Market Slows As Advanced Genetics Gain Ground Tree seedling producer ArborGen’s interim results for the six months ending in September highlight a tale of two markets: continued strength in Brazil and ongoing headwinds in the U.S. South.

While the company’s revenue reached a record $14.2 million, the majority of U.S. sales will not be recognized until the second half of the fiscal year, following the U.S.’s peak tree planting season of December to March.

ArborGen reports that the U.S. South remains “at the lower end of the cycle,” with sluggish reforestation activity driving cost-control measures F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

across operations. The company emphasizes that a meaningful recovery is unlikely before 2026, with limited growth expected this year due to both the market slowdown and production losses stemming from heavy rains in Texas.

Despite these market challenges, ArborGen is sharpening its focus on higher-value genetics—particularly MCP (Mass Control Pollinated) and containerized seedlings—which continue to gain traction among large private landowners and TIMOs. ArborGen has also refreshed its product categories to better communicate genetic performance

attributes, a timely move as customers evaluate ways to improve returns in a soft stumpage environment.

The company also notes it is wellpositioned to supply the growing U.S. forest carbon market, where faster early growth and predictable yield curves are increasingly important.

With many U.S. landowners facing lower stumpage prices and broader economic uncertainties, the shift toward advanced genetics—offering lower planting densities, higher growth rates, and better sawtimber potential—may prove to be a solid strategy until market fundamentals strengthen.

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New ESA Rules Proposed The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) has released a new set of proposed rule changes that would roll back several protections under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), reviving policies first advanced during President Trump’s first term and later reversed under the Biden administration. The agency says the changes are intended to reduce regulatory overreach and better align ESA implementation with the statute and recent Supreme Court decisions.

endangered species by default.

Under the proposal, FWS would instead require species-specific rules tailored to each threatened species, potentially allowing more flexibility where conservation goals can still be met.

The most significant proposal would eliminate automatic, or “blanket,” protections for threatened species.

Currently, threatened species often receive the same protections as

FWS is also proposing to tighten standards for listing species based on future or speculative threats, such as projected climate change impacts.

The agency emphasizes a clearer and more consistent definition of the “foreseeable future,” which would narrow the timeframe over which potential risks are evaluated.

In total, the agency issued four proposed rules that would: restore

the 2019 framework for listing and critical habitat designations; return interagency consultations to the 2019 standards following the Supreme Court’s Loper Bright decision; replace blanket threatened-species protections with species-specific rules; and reinstate a 2020 policy clarifying how economic and other impacts are considered when excluding areas from critical habitat.

Earlier this year, FWS also proposed redefining what it means to “harm” a species under the ESA—potentially excluding habitat modification from that definition. That proposal has not yet been finalized.

INLAND NORTHWEST TIMBER PRICES NORTH IDAHO AND THE INLAND NORTHWEST LOG PRICES

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$20

$40

$60

$80

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range (MBF)

$600 PONDEROSA PINE

HEMLOCK $600 $600 $500

WESTERN WHITE PINE GRAND FIR/WESTERN LODGEPOLE PINE DOUGLAS FIR/WESTERN LARCH

$500 $500 $400 $400 $400 $300 $300 $300

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2021 2021

2022 2022

2023 2023

2024 2024

2025 2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Timber Price Averages (MBF) WESTERN RED CEDAR

$2500 $1750 $2500 $2500 $1000 $1750 $1750 $1000 $1000

PONDEROSA PINE WESTERN WHITE PINE GRAND FIR/ WESTERN HEMLOCK LODGEPOLE PINE DOUGLAS FIR/ WESTERN LARCH

$300

$400

$375 MidAtlantic

$425 $400

$500

$450 $515 West Gulf MidAtlantic Central Hardwood MidAtlantic West Gulf $500 $560 Southeast West Gulf Central Hardwood $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Central Hardwood Southeast Southeast

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range (MBF)

CEDAR POLES WESTERN RED CEDAR CEDAR POLES

2021

2022

2023

2024

2021 2021

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2022 2022

2023 2023

2024 2024

2025 2025

$1,500 $1200

$1,600 $2,100 $1600

$2000

$2,400 $2400

$2800

Q1 facilities Q2 Q3 Q4 Note: These figures reflect gatewood prices paid by competitive domestic the Inland Northwest. Landowners can often achieve better prices by working with a consulting Q1 Q2 Q3in Q4 forester. Prices are based on average-sized logs and standard log lengths—typically 16’6” and 33’. Higher prices may apply only in select locations within the Inland Northwest and may involve long haul distances from a landowner’s property. Additionally, pole values can vary significantly based on length. MBF stands for Thousand Board Feet.

F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

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SOUTHERN TIMBER PRICES PINE PULPWOOD ($/TON) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region SOUTHEAST

CENTRAL REGION

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

WEST GULF

MID ATLANTIC

$20

$15

$10

$5

$0

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

PINE SMALL SAWTIMBER ($/TON) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region SOUTHEAST

CENTRAL REGION

WEST GULF

Q3 MID ATLANTIC

$25 $20 $15 $10 $5

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

PINE LARGE SAWTIMBER ($/TON) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region SOUTHEAST

$35

WEST GULF

MID ATLANTIC

$25

$20

2021

F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

2022

2023

2024

$5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40

$15 $26 LAFAYETTE, AL $15 $23 ORANGE PARK, FL $20 $28 MARIANNA, FL $16 $28 ALBANY, GA $16 $22 MACON, GA $17 $30 STATESBORO, GA $14 $17 FOUNTAIN INN, SC MidAtlantic $5 $10 CLINTON, TN West $4 Gulf $7 PARIS, TN Central Hardwood $8 $15 EL DORADO, AR Southeast $12 $17 CORINTH, MS $10 $16 ANTLERS, OK $8 $11 HUNTSVILLE, TX $14 $18 CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA $0

$5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

$30

$15

$0

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

$30

$0

$2 $11 LAFAYETTE, AL $1 $14 ORANGE PARK, FL $1 $6 MARIANNA, FL $2 ALBANY, GA $11 $2 $8 MACON, GA $8 STATESBORO, GA $1 $3 $8 FOUNTAIN INN, SC MidAtlantic $1 $5 CLINTON, TN West $2 Gulf $6 PARIS, TN Central Hardwood $0 $1.50 EL DORADO, AR Southeast $1 $3 CORINTH, MS $3 $8 ANTLERS, OK $1 $6 HUNTSVILLE, TX $4 $10 CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

$17 $35 LAFAYETTE, AL $18 $27 ORANGE PARK, FL $20 $30 MARIANNA, FL ALBANY, GA $26 MACON, GA $22 $28 STATESBORO, GA $18 $32 FOUNTAIN INN, SC $20 $28 MidAtlantic CLINTON, TN West Gulf PARIS, TN Central Hardwood EL DORADO, AR $18 $26 Southeast CORINTH, MS $14 $20 ANTLERS, OK $27 $31 HUNTSVILLE, TX $16 $30 CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA $17 $23

$48

$10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50

$0

WINTER 2025-26 • WWW.FWFORESTRY.COM

$5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40

10

SOUTHERN TIMBER PRICES (continued) HARDWOOD PULPWOOD ($/TON) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region SOUTHEAST

$15

CENTRAL REGION

WEST GULF

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range MID ATLANTIC

$12 $9 $6

$3

$0

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

HARDWOOD SAWTIMBER ($/TON) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region SOUTHEAST

CENTRAL REGION

WEST GULF

MID ATLANTIC

$70 $60 $50 $40 $30

2021

2022

2023

2024

$0

$2

$4

$6

$16

$8 $10 $12 $14 $16

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

$80

$20

$4 LAFAYETTE, AL $1 $6 ORANGE PARK, FL $4 $6 MARIANNA, FL $6 ALBANY, GA $3 $3 $7 MACON, GA $1 $7 STATESBORO, GA $2 $7 FOUNTAIN INN, SC MidAtlantic $0.25 $2 CLINTON, TN West Gulf $2 $6 PARIS, TN Central Hardwood $1 $5 EL DORADO, AR Southeast $2 $7 CORINTH, MS $6 $7 ANTLERS, OK $1 $4 HUNTSVILLE, TX $3 $7 CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

$22 $40 LAFAYETTE, AL $5 $24 ORANGE PARK, FL $20 $28 MARIANNA, FL $20 $30 ALBANY, GA $18 $35 MACON, GA $20 $35 STATESBORO, GA $35 FOUNTAIN INN, SCMidAtlantic $20 West Gulf $30 $55 CLINTON, TN Central Hardwood$30 $45 PARIS, TN $45 EL DORADO, AR Southeast $20 $30 $35 CORINTH, MS $30 $30 ANTLERS, OK $27 $31 HUNTSVILLE, TX $30 $15 CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80

All prices based on sales handled by or reported to F&W offices. If no sales occurred, prior quarter’s sales and other data are used to compile price range. Price ranges are due to proximity to mills, timber quality, logging conditions, type of harvest, and other local market conditions (i.e. weather, mill downtime, fuel cost, etc.).

Marshall Thomas (continued from page 1) Continuing that trend, the article on page 7 covers a call to action sent to Congress by the Speakers of the House from Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, urging steps to stabilize the forestry sector. Recent mill closures appear to have really gotten the attention of politicians—and that could be good for us, both in the short and long run.

Forestry is an important part of the rural economy, yet it has always been F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

$0

$5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40

taken for granted. Looks like that could be changing.

to enable the use of the trees we grow in renewable energy production.

Turning to the regulatory side, articles on pages 8 and 9 discuss proposed changes to the Endangered Species Act and the Waters of the United States regulation. Both developments are favorable to forest landowners.

To wrap up, while market conditions remain largely unchanged, our sector is finally getting attention from politicians. Change in our markets is going to take investment from the private sector, but the private sector can’t do it without favorable rules and regulations—and they must come first. Hopefully, all the attention we are getting will bring favorable changes.

Finally, on page 4, you’ll find some good information on the Renewable Fuel Standard and what must change

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NORTHERN TIMBER PRICES RED OAK (MBF) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region NEW ENGLAND ADIRONDACKS, NY NEW OXFORD, PA BLUEFIELD, WV

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

HERKIMER, NY

$800

WINTHROP, ME I

$700

$311

$551

I

MONTPELIER, VT Herkimer,$275 NY

$600

BLACK CHERRY

New England

I $275 ADIRONDACKS, NYAdirondacks, NY

$500

HERKIMER NY I

$400 $300

Lorem ipsum

2021

2022

2023

2024

$450

New Oxford, $300PA

$500

Bluefield, WV

NEW OXFORD, PA D

$843

$487

BLUEFIELD, WV D

$200 $100

$400

$125

$225

$0

$300 $450

$150

$600

$750 $900

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

BLACK CHERRY (MBF) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

ADIRONDACKS, NY HERKIMER, NY NEW OXFORD, PA BLUEFIELD, WV $1000

WINTHROP, ME

$800

MONTPELIER, VT

hard maple

I

ADIRONDACKS, NY

$600

HERKIMER NY

$400

I

$200

Herkimer, NY

BLUEFIELD, WV

$300

2022

2023

2024

D

D

New $50 Oxford, PA$350 Bluefield, WV

$100

$150 $150

$300 $450

$750 $900

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

HERKIMER, NY

Q3 Q4

$800

WINTHROP, ME I

$700

MONTPELIER, VT

$600

I

$425

$275 Herkimer, NY

$300 ADIRONDACKS, NY I New England

$500

HERKIMER NY I

$300

Bluefield, WV NEW OXFORD, PA D $145

$200

BLUEFIELD, WV D

$350

2022

2023

2024

$750

New Oxford, PA

$175 $0

2021

$550

Adirondacks, NY

$400

$100

$600

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

HARD MAPLE (MBF) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region NEW ENGLAND ADIRONDACKS, NY NEW OXFORD, PA BLUEFIELD, WV

$750

Adirondacks, NY

$0 2021

$375

New England

I

NEW OXFORD, PA

$200

$0

I

$150

$850 $280

$300 $450

$600

$750 $900

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

Q3

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NORTHERN TIMBER PRICES (continued)

Lorem ipsum

SOFTWOOD SAWTIMBER (MBF) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region NEW ENGLAND

ADIRONDACKS, NY

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

HERKIMER, NY

$250

WINTHROP, ME I

$225

MONTPELIER, VT I

$200

soft PULP

$100

Herkimer, NY

$130

$100

$200

New Oxford, PA $75

$200

Adirondacks, NY

HERKIMER NY I

$150

Lorem ipsum NEW OXFORD, PA

Bluefield, WV

D

$125

BLUEFIELD, WV D 2021

2022

2023

2024

NEW ENGLAND ADIRONDACKS, NY NEW OXFORD, PA BLUEFIELD, WV

$0

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

HARDWOOD PULPWOOD (TONS) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region

Q3

$6

WINTHROP, ME MONTPELIER, VT

soft PULP

$5

$4

$2 Adirondacks, NY$4 New Oxford, PA

$4

Bluefield, WV

NEW OXFORD, PA

$1

BLUEFIELD, WV $.25

SOFTWOOD PULPWOOD (TONS) Timber Stumpage Price Averages By Region NEW ENGLAND ADIRONDACKS, NY NEW OXFORD, PA BLUEFIELD, WV

HERKIMER, NY

Q3

$5 $7

$4 $2

$0

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

$6

$3

$2

2024

$12

New England

HERKIMER NY

$3

2023

$375 $450

$5

Herkimer, NY

ADIRONDACKS, NY

2022

$300

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

$7

2021

$150 $225

$75

HERKIMER, NY

$8

$0

$357

New England

ADIRONDACKS, NY I

$175

$100

$163

$4

$2

$6

$8

$10

$12

$6

$8

$10

$12

2025 Fourth Quarter Price Range

$8 $7

WINTHROP, ME

$6

MONTPELIER, VT

$5

$1 $1 NY Herkimer, New England

$1 $3 Adirondacks, NY New Oxford, PA

ADIRONDACKS, NY $1

Bluefield, WV

$4

HERKIMER NY

$3

$1

$3

$2

NEW OXFORD, PA

$1

BLUEFIELD, WV $.25 $.25

$0

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

$4

$2

$0

$4

$2

$4

All prices based on sales handled by or reported to F&W offices. If no sales occurred, prior quarter’s sales and other data are used to compile price range. Price ranges are due to proximity to mills, timber quality, logging conditions, type of harvest, and other local market conditions (i.e. weather, mill downtime, fuel cost, etc.). (D) = Doyle (I) = International (S) = Scribner F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

Q3

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TIMBER MARKET INDICATORS As a result of the federal government shutdown (Oct. 1–Nov. 12), the U.S. Census Bureau has not released updated housing permits, starts, or residential construction data beyond August 2025.

HOUSING PERMITS HOUSING STARTS

F&W’S LUMBER-USE ADJUSTED HOUSING STARTS

2.0

1.5

1.32 1.75

1.5

1.74

1.68 1.51

1.60

1.55 1.42

1.48 1.37

1.25

1.41

1.13

2024

1.16

2023

2024

1.38 0.6

0.3

2023

2022

1.14 0.9

1.0 2021

1.22

1.2

2025 Q3

IN MILLIONS OF UNITS (2025 AVERAGE THROUGH AUGUST)

2021

2022

2025 Q3

IN MILLIONS OF UNITS; TOTAL HOUSING STARTS WITH MULTIFAMILY STARTS REDUCED TO 40 PERCENT TO BETTER REFLECT LUMBER USAGE (2025 AVERAGE THROUGH AUGUST)

Source: US Department of Commerce

Source: US Census and F&W Forestry Services

LUMBER PRICES

RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

800

1000 800

923

930

870

799

$766

700

904

$704

600 500

600

$422

400 400

$362

$407 $420 $338 $335

300 200

200

100 0

2021

2023

2022

2024

0

2025 Q3

2023

2024

SOUTHERN PINE–$/MBF

Source: US Department of Commerce

Source: Random Lengths Southern Pine Composite Index

8

6.72%

5.34%

6

2025 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

US DOLLAR

6.80%

7

6.83% 6.79% 6.40% 6.24%

5

128

130

115

2

123

125

121

120

2022

2023

120

2.96%

3

123 121 121

113

110

1 0

2022

IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS (2025 AVERAGE THROUGH AUGUST)

MORTGAGE RATES

4

2021

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 Q1 Q2

105 Q3

Q4

2021

2024

2025 Q1 Q2

Q3

30-YEAR FIXED RATE

US DOLLAR VALUE AGAINST 26 MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS

Source: Freddie Mac

Source: Federal Reserve

F&W FORESTRY SERVICES, INC.

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F&W Forestry Services proudly serves a broad client base with comprehensive forest management solutions. Our team takes the time to get to know you, your land, and your goals to create a personalized plan for success.

OUR MISSION F&W’s mission is to help clients maximize the value and enjoyment of their land and forest resources according to their individual objectives, needs, and desires – whether economic, aesthetic, environmental, or recreational.

OUR SERVICES Timber Sales Property Management Field Support Services Forest Inventory & Mapping Forestland Accounting Technical & Analytical Real Estate Natural Capital