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Backcasting is a method used in problem-solving, scenario planning, and change management. It starts with a desired future scenario and works backwards to identify the steps required to achieve that future state. The process involves defining a future vision or goal, and then identifying the necessary conditions, policies, and actions needed to reach that goal.

Working from a solved, compelling, future state

In contrast to forecasting, which looks at past trends to extrapolate a future, backcasting starts with a future state and works to identify the specific actions needed today to increase the chance of that future vision taking effect. By focusing on creating a preferred future –instead of adapting to an uncertain future – organisations can become more proactive and effective in achieving their goals.

Appreciative inquiry

Often we combine backcasting with appreciative inquiry, an approach that focuses on identifying and building upon an organisation's strengths instead of solely addressing its risks and weaknesses. It is a collaborative and participatory approach that involves many stakeholders in the organisation. The appreciative inquiry process typically involves four stages:

Dream: Imagine and articulate an ideal future state. This requires developing a shared vision and aspiration for the future.

Discover: Explore what experiences and changes have worked well in the past and how that might contribute to the ideal future success.

Design: Develop a plan for achieving the ideal future state by defining specific initiatives that will help the organisation to realise the discovered changes

Do: Takes action to implement the first steps for the new design, and define key decisions that need to be made today to start in this new direction.

The appreciative inquiry approach is based on the belief that organisations are more likely to be successful when they focus on what is working well and build upon those positive experiences. This allows organisations to create a more-energising environment for change, and to achieve more meaningful and sustainable results.