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residential Property MARKET OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK

publication 6 / 2013

JUly 2013

Residential Market Update

The year ending June 2013 saw median values across Australian capital cities grow by an average of 3.8%, after a 1.9% monthly increase.

Consistent with investor expectations, Australian Residential Property median prices moved up by 1.9% in June to regain the decline in value that took place earlier in the quarter. The quarter concluded with a net change of 0.2%, which saw the year ending in June with a 3.8% median increase, as recorded by RP Data’s analysis. With the leading market indicators continuing to show the moderate strength in the market generated through improved affordability, expectations of a housing market recovery are growing. The Australian Financial Review, backed by APM data, reported that at the last weekend of July 2013, the housing market was at its “highest levels in more than 10 years”.

With the unemployment rate at 5.7% and inflation remaining at 2.4%, the Australian economy remained fairly stable. However, RBA governor Glenn Stevens recently indicated towards a further cut in the cash rate from its current 2.75% to a new historic low aiming stimulate the local economy.* This had a direct impact on the Australian

dollar, which declined to the lowest value in over 3 years to below 0.89 USD (current as at 2:30 pm on 6th August). This was having a dual effect on local affordability, by promising an improvement in housing affordability but also rising energy expenses.

Among the individual states, Sydney has so far returned the highest quarterly and year to date growth at 1.4% and 4.6% respectively.

BIS Shrapnel, a leading data provider, has predicted the growth to continue over the next 3 years and improve prices by 19% to a median value around $770,000. The Perth property market, despite recent slowdowns in growth, currently stands at a 6.0% median value change compared to the same time last year. New home sales, driven by incentives, pushed on at a growth rate of 3.8% in June.

Housing finance commitments were up by 1.6%, yet dwelling approvals fell by a seasonally adjusted 6.9% in June. Westpac Melbourne Institute’s consumer index remained flat. * The cash rate was changed to 2.5% on the 6th of August.

Dwelling trend year on year 7%

Dwelling Trend YoY (%)

6.1%

6%

6.0% 5.6%

5% 4% 3.4%

3% 2% 1.1%

1%

0.9% 0.2%

-1.8%

Adelaide ( SA )

Hobart ( TAS )

0% -1% -2%

Darwin ( NT )

Perth ( WA )

Sydney ( NSW )

Source: RP DATA

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FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2013

Melbourne ( VIC )

Canberra ( ACT )

Brisbane ( QLD )

Key statistics JUly 2013

ECONOMIC GROWTH 2.8% 0.5% 3.1% 0.6%

AUD BUYS

0.8931 USD

GDP growth

2012-2013

0.25% 0.4%

in august

UNEMPLOYMENT 5.7%

0.2%

PARTICIPATION

0.1%

in Q2

65.3%

1.2% annual

- 6.9%

Dwelling Values

Median House Price $ 520,000

-3.6%

$ 23,289

monthly 1.9%

total dwelling commitments

quarterly 0.2%

housing finance

3.8%

Australia wide snapshot

3.4%

Median Unit Price

0.1% in JUly

Australian Employment

New Home Sales

New Dwelling Approvals

Westpac - Melbourne institute

102.1

2.53% in JUly 1

RBA STATS CASH RATE 2.5% INFLATION 2.4%

Consumer Sentiment Index

3.0%

WORLDWIDE 2012 US, EUROPE & JAPAN 2012 AUSTRALIAN 2012 AUSTRALIAN 1st quarter 2013

annual CHANGE IN total property sales Difference from Peak Dwelling Value

$ 440,000

RENTAL MARKET STATISTICS

AUSTRALIAN RENTAl YIELD

Highest annual median house PERTH – 14% Highest Annual median UNIT

DARWIN – 8.3%

HOUSE Yield 4.1% UNIT Yield 4.9%

Source: ABS, RP DATA, HIA, RBA, Westpac - Melbourne Institute, REIA ¹ Current at 14:30 pm 6 August 2013 * Data updated to July 2013

FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2013

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Residential Market Update

Future estate capital city rating summary STATE

CAPITAL CITY

FUTURE ESTATE SCORE

OVERVIEW

NSW

SYDNEY

VIC

MELBOURNE

Melbourne’s rating fell this month given the softer statistics over the month. State Discount Rate however saw a minor improvement. Melbourne’s overall outlook indicates a recovery has emerged.

QLD

BRISBANE

Brisbane’s rating improved by the largest amount this month again with positive leading indicators. The SQM Asking Price index showed a large positive change and mainly contributed to this result.

WA

PERTH

Perth’s score saw the largest fall this month, primarily due to its large change in seller asking price. Vacancy rates also increased and thus the property market was sluggish in the past month, however remains healthy overall.

SA

ADELAIDE

Adelaide also experienced a decline due to a lower asking price, while days on market and auction clearance rates increased marginally. Its property market score improved, however.

ACT

CANBERRA

Canberra’s rate changed in line with that of Adelaide. The asking price had a positive change, while the vacancy rate and the discount rate for the property market increased slightly.

NT

DARWIN

Darwin’s statistics largely stayed constant, apart from its asking price as tracked by SQM Research, which softened last month. Darwin’s vacancy rate contracted.

TAS

HOBART

Hobart’s FE score was at a new low after its property market score declined, due to a poor quarterly performance. While its auction clearance rates slightly rose, so too did the average property days on market.

Sydney’s FE Score is the highest in Australia, however, fell for a second month after the SQM Research tracked Asking Price Index saw a decline this month. Auction clearance rates across NSW saw a minor improvement from already high levels.

* Score is out of 5 as indicated by out of 5: Higher score indicates a stronger property market with positive outlook, whereas a lower score indicates a softer market with lower growth prospects.

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FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2013

Source: Future Estate Research

Property Market Performance The local residential property market has seen its performance largely affected by the developments in the investment trends of the Australian and international economies.

Given the current state of the Australian economy, the RBA has currently positioned the cash rate at 2.5%. There is an expectation of another cut in the rate by 25 basis points in the first half of FY2013, contingent on the performance of the local industrial and commercial sectors.

The residential market has seen a resurgence in activity given the current position of the interest rates and home buyer stimuli.

Median dwelling values have seen marginal gains as auction clearance rates have been very high. Stock on market figures tracked by SQM Research for the capital cities have also been on the decline in the second quarter of 2013. While consumer confidence saw a slight negative movement over the past month due to political uncertainty, the figure remains in the positive and shows 93% of surveyed people considering it a good time to purchase property. ABS tracked housing finance commitments saw a rise of 1.2% in the past month, supporting the findings of the Household Financial Conditions report by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute, which indicated that 82% of Australians are in a stable financial condition. Meanwhile, the Australian residential construction activity continues to be impacted by a lack of credit and has seen a sustained decline over the past 3 years, currently settling 13% below last year’s activity. This, combined with High density residential building approvals falling by 37.4% over the past year and the steady increase in the Australian population in the capital cities, has led to several data analysts publishing strong cases for a growth in the property sector. NAB has published reports of Sydney properties growing by 12% over the next 3 years and BIS Shrapnel expects a 19% rise. These reports are based on the fact that the fundamentals of the Australian Residential sector remain strong in an environment of risk concerns and uncertainty in the other investment domains generally associated with greater volatility.

auction clearance rates The auction clearance rates in June and July recorded by the mainstream data providers continued to exceed expectations of market analysts. Fairfax Media-owned Australian Property Monitors, a leading data provider, published its findings on the auction clearance rate at 81% for the last weekend of July, which is higher than the boom levels during late 2010. The average auction clearance rate during June was also an interesting result, with both Sydney and Melbourne recording over 70% clearance.

This was particularly interesting given the traditional lower level of transaction volumes in the housing markets during the winter months of the year. The continued growth in the auction clearance rates and the gradual improvement in the dwelling median values across the capital cities are indicative of general market recovery. The housing market median value change in Sydney was 1.2%.

Sydney and Melbourne recorded very high auction clearance rates of over 75% again, in part due to improved affordability from the lowered cash rate.

Capital Cities The capital cities as a whole recorded an almost flat result in the month of June. Over the past year, most of the markets recorded a small positive change, except Hobart in the southern state of Tasmania, which closed at -1.8%. Sydney, meanwhile, saw its home values increase by 5.6% over the year to June with $662,500 for detached houses and $500,000 for units. Its growth in the past month was the highest of all the capital cities, an average of about a 1.4% change in house and unit dwellings. Darwin, a capital city experiencing problems with affordability due to the lack of property development investment and continued population growth, saw a decline in the median value of houses while still posting very high median rental returns of 6.2%. Perth’s property market, which has slowed and experienced greater vacancy rates, saw a decline of 1% in the median value for units, after the 4.2% increase in May. This was the case for Brisbane too, which slowed its property market recovery and had its house prices 0.9% lower in June, after a May increase in prices.

FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2013

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Residential Market Update

RP Data recorded a weekly Auction Clearance Rate of 81% from 272 auctions in Sydney for the week ending 28th July 2013. This was a highlight in the traditionally sluggish winter season.

Property auction clearance rates: June 2013 June Property Auction Clearance Rates 3500

80% 71% 70%

70%

73%

71%

3012

3000

60%

2500

50%

2294

2000

40% 1500

30% 1000

20%

500

10% 0

0

Month Average

Last May Weekend

Source: Real Estate Institute of Victoria; Real Estate Institute of NSW.

Total May Auctions Sydney

Melbourne

Source: Real Estate institute of Victoria; Real Estate institute of NSW

Property auction clearance rates: week ending 28th July Auction Clearance Rates 80% 70%

81% 71%

74%

73%

71%

62% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0

Australian Property Monitors

RP Data

* REINSW’s latest auction clearance rates are for the week ending 28th July, 2013

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FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2013

REIV/REINSW* Sydney

Melbourne

quarterly capital city house and unit price trend

2%

1.6%

House Price Trend Over Quarter (%)

1.6%

Unit Price Trend Over Quarter (%)

1.1%

1%

0.8% 0.5% 0.2%

0

-0.1% -0.5%

-1%

-0.9%

-1.0%

-0.9% -1.6%

-2% -3%

-1.7%

-3.1% -3.5%

-4% -5% -6% -6.4%

-7% -8%

Adelaide ( SA )

Sydney ( NSW )

Perth ( WA )

Melbourne ( VIC )

Brisbane ( QLD )

Hobart ( TAS )

Canberra ( ACT )

Darwin ( NT )

Source: RP DATA

capital city house and unit gross rental yields Gross Rental Yields 8% 7% 6.2% 6.2%

6% 4.8%

5%

5.6%

5.4%

5.2% 5.2%

5.1% 4.6%

4.4%

4.9%

4.9% 4.4%

4.4%

4.2% 3.7%

4% 3% 2% 1% 0 Darwin ( NT )

Source: RP DATA

Hobart ( TAS )

Brisbane ( QLD )

Canberra ( ACT )

Perth ( WA )

Adelaide ( SA )

Sydney ( NSW )

House Gross Rental Yield (%)

Melbourne ( VIC ) Units Gross Rental Yield (%)

FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2013

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Residential Market Update

Capital City House and Unit Median Prices State

Capital City

Median House Price ($)

Median Unit Price ($)

Dwelling Trend YTD* (%)

New South Wales

Sydney

$ 662,500

$ 500,000

4.6%

Victoria

Melbourne

$ 561,000

$ 446,000

2.1%

Queensland

Brisbane

$ 456,000

$ 360,000

0.7%

South Australia

Adelaide

$ 400,000

$ 334,750

0.7%

Western Australia

Perth

$ 517,000

$ 420,000

4.4%

Tasmania

Hobart

$ 335,000

$ 265,000

3.9%

Northern Territory

Darwin

$ 530,000

$ 445,000

-0.4%

Australian Capital Territory

Canberra

$ 565,000

$ 415,000

2.1%

Source: RP DATA * Year to Date

Key Investment Themes Theme Key growth opportunities

Summary

§§ Sustainable above-market capital growth

Key value opportunities

§§ Significant discount to

Defensive yield

§§ Sustainable rental income,

comparable properties, market analyst valuation

above market yield

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Future Estate View

§§ Capital cities re-emerging §§ Darwin boom continues §§ Sydney offers resilient

Comments

§§ Generally larger centres

performance in inner city and outer suburbs §§ Population growth and dwelling undersupply are long-term drivers §§ Affordability remains a key theme, subject to cash rate

and capitals currently experiencing growth, with population inflow and slow dwelling completions §§ Housing affordability is currently high, with cash rate low and expected to further drop and unemployment higher than expectations

§§ Distressed opportunities

§§ Value more at the suburb,

reducing due to market improvement §§ Adelaide and Hobart hardest hit of capitals in 2012, recovery emerging with high affordability

rather than city level and more particularly at the asset-level §§ Distressed value without capital and income growth potential questionable – i.e. lifestyle / coastal

§§ Darwin, Brisbane and Perth

§§ Yield compression possible

have very high yields due to property undersupply §§ Regional centres (top 20 population) offer highest sustainable yield

/ likely in 2013 as housing recovery gains momentum, but subject only to growth in construction investment §§ Rental growth unlikely to exceed capital growth into the longer term

FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2013

Key Cyclical Themes Cyclical Outlook

Summary

Future Estate View

Global economy and policy

§§ The global economic crises

Domestic growth and policy

§§ Growth estimated at 2.5%

§§ Lowered cash rate and

for the year, which is on par with US growth and well above Japan and Europe §§ Non-mining sectors such as manufacturing growing due to a lower value of the AUD

improved affordability is assisting in housing market growth §§ Unemployment, at 5.7%, and a lower participation rate is having a mixed impact

Comments

§§ Indirect impact to residential §§ The global impact on Australian in the US and EU have eased property market via property appeared mainly off in 2013 consumer confidence, access during significant international §§ Chinese growth is estimated to credit and changes in economic turmoils, which are to be 7.5% for 2013 growth areas subsiding §§ US economy is growing at §§ Negative impacts easing in §§ Weaker AUD offering an estimated 2.5% p.a.

2013 opportunities for international investors §§ Likely slight increase in unemployment, which combined with inflation rate on the lower end of the RBA preferred range may lead to further interest rate cuts later into 2013 by another 25 basis points

§§ Highest level of affordability §§ Lower interest rates have §§ Increasing house prices likely to Housing in many years seeing the translated to strong auction be off-set by lower interest rates affordability low cash rate and relatively clearance rates of over 80% §§ Historic low interest rates moderate unemployment in the major capital cities, and new home buyer grants §§ The median house price/ areas with high employment stimulating owner occupier income ratio is currently §§ Affordable inner city suburbs property demand; investors at around 4, which is low are experiencing growth noticing high growth areas internationally Population growth

§§ Population growth was recorded at 1.8% over the year in 2012 §§ 394,200 persons annual increase in period ending December 2012 §§ WA recorded highest growth: 3.5% §§ Population recently reached 23M

§§ Below-trend dwelling Dwelling development continues, construction as evidenced by lower spending in a sector with difficulties in access to credit Consumer confidence

§§ Consumer confidence

Household savings / demand for credit

§§ Household savings ratio

emerging, with stronger market fundamentals §§ Investor confidence substantially improved from lows in 2012 remains elevated at ~10% of income – back to 1908’s levels §§ Demand for housing credit still comparatively low

§§ Population growth expected

§§ Impact on housing demand / to rise in 2013, driven mainly supply imbalance substantial – by overseas skilled migration housing shortage from reduced §§ Migration to Australia construction activity and concentrated in capital cities investment of NSW, VIC and WA, which §§ QLD and WA major interstate has resulted in home value beneficiaries, while Vic grows growth through international migration

§§ House approvals have

§§ 25,000 fewer homes built in seen a decline as of late, 2013 compared to a decade ago with construction and §§ Construction has fallen since completions remaining poor 2010 given credit crunch –rental growth and yield has been high §§ New Home Sales are stronger as a result §§ Over 50% of investors

§§ RP Data is reporting 250 suburbs

expect house prices to rise materially in 2013 as compared to 8% who expect a fall §§

§§ With confidence emerging, it is anticipated that a demand for housing credit will emerge, especially given substantial buffer to mortgage repayments after recent savings

around Australia tipped to double property values in 10 years HIA reports hotspots are emerging

§§ Demand for housing credit is still increasing, albeit it at very low levels §§ Investor credit demand is leading owner-occupier demand

FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2013

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Residential Market Update

Future Estate capital city rating

PERTH State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*

BRISBANE

DARWIN State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*

35.5% 112 6.3% -1.8% 1.5% 2.70

Future Estate Capital City Rating

86.5% 151 5.2% -4.1% 0.8% 2.40

Future Estate Capital City Rating

3.15

2.63

State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*

32.8% 158 8.8% 1.1% 2.1% 2.25

Future Estate Capital City Rating

2.81

SYDNEY

DARWIN

State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*

NT

58.3% 112 6.7% -1.7% 1.9% 3.65

Future Estate Capital City Rating

QLD

3.16

WA

BRISBANE

SA

CANBERRA

NSW SYDNEY

PERTH

ACT ADELAIDE

CANBERRA

VIC

MELBOURNE

State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*

42% 86 5.2% -1.9% 1.7% 2.25

Future Estate Capital City Rating

2.81

TAS HOBART

ADELAIDE State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*

MELBOURNE 43% 160 8.0% -1.5% 1.6% 2.70

Future Estate Capital City Rating

2.63

State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*

HOBART 59% 113 7.7% -0.5% 2.9% 3.3

Future Estate Capital City Rating

3.08

* The State Property Market Score, which is out of 5, takes into account several factors, including demographic factors that indicate Future Growth, Quarterly House and Unit Median Price Growth Rates, Annual Dwelling Growth Rates and the Median Mortgage Payments as a proportion of the Median Household Income.

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FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2013

State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*

23% 185 10.0% -1.1% 2.5% 2.55

Future Estate Capital City Rating

1.99 Sources: Australian Property Monitors, Domain.com.au and SQM Research.

Future Estate’s Research Team has developed an extensive quantitative modelling process to critically assess the Australian Residential Property Market.

For the Capital City Rating, our team records, benchmarks, assigns weights to and scores various key property market lead indicators and descriptive statistics.

Our Services Include: §§ Buyers’ agency §§ Research – suburb reports and due-diligence markets §§ Personalised advice and investment strategy §§ Panel of “Endorsed Projects”- over $1bn portfolio of “investment grade” projects nationally §§ Contact us to arrange a complimentary consultation to discuss your needs

Please contact our team at Future Estate for more information on our methodology and/or our range of other property investment advisory services.

1300 future (388 873) info@futureestate.com.au www.futureestate.com.au @futureestate future.estate future estate

Copyright © Future Estate Group Pty Ltd 2013

This document contains general information and does not contain personal advice or financial product advice. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, before acting on this information and making financial decisions, you should consider whether this information is appropriate for you and are recommended to seek independent financial, investment, tax and/or legal advice having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs. This information may contain material provided to Future Estate Group Pty Ltd by third parties. While such material is published with necessary permission, Future Estate Group Pty Ltd and its related entities accept no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor endorses it. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Future Estate Group Pty and its related entities disclaim all liability for any loss, costs or damage which arises in connection with the use or reliance on the information and material contained in this document. Any forward looking statements and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. Furthermore, past performance is not a true indicator of future performance. Any past performance information this document has been given for illustrative purposesUPDATE only and should be relied upon as an indication of future performance.

FUTUREin ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET JULYnot 2013

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