EDMONDSONOUTLOOKMARKETPARK Edmondson Park is at the heart of the fast-growing South West Priority Growth Area of Sydney encompassing an emerging apartment market, new transport infrastructure, employment growth and improving connectivity. 02Key South03DemandResidentialDriversWestSydney Overview 0604Ed.SquareLocationand Accessibility 12111008InfrastructurePopulationDemographicsEmploymentand Education 13Rental Market Overview 14Housing Market Overview Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia June 2021
The key residential demand drivers have been identified by Urbis as comprising proximity and access to employment, public transport, services, recreation and social infrastructure.
P E I
POPULATION GROWTH
The draft Greater Sydney Region Plan (2056) identifies a need for an additional 817,000 jobs by 2056, with a strong focus on economic corridors, health and education precincts and strategic centres. Residential development in greenfield areas is set to benefit from these new employment nodes, noting Western Sydney Airport’s role as a key economic centre.
Regions with strong population growth improve the potential demand for new residential development through access to a growing market and future household formation.
POPULATION EMPLOYMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
*Forecasts released prior to the COVID-19 pandemic
The NSW Department of Planning and Environment projects that the population of Greater Sydney will increase by 1.7% per annum over the next decade*, driving demand for around 35,700 additional dwellings per year. Based on housing approval data, it is estimated that half of these dwellings will be apartments, equating to over 17,850 per year.
Urbis has investigated the trends that will deliver sustained and confident growth now and into the future. This involves recognising the key fundamentals that investors should seek to secure returns, as well as, identifying regions that will be the most desirable to live, work and play.
Access to good public transport and road infrastructure are important to potential purchasers and renters. Particularly, linkages to the CBD, airport and major Futureemployment centres.infrastructure projects can revitalise areas, improve connectivity and linkages, create new jobs and reshape the existing community.
EMPLOYMENT
To help identify these locations, Urbis has concluded that the most desirable locations will be those which deliver ‘P.I.E’. Population, Infrastructure and Employment growth.
KEY DEMANDRESIDENTIALDRIVERS
Long term value growth will be the most important motivator for buyers moving forward, and in today’s new market demand, those regions accommodating a unique formula will benefit the most in the long run.
Locations supported by infrastructure and services improve the value derived from locational driven amenity.
Proximity and access to employment nodes is essential for strong residential growth. It supports a future population and opens a local labour market for residential developments as workers seek housing within easy transit to their place of work.
Market Outlook Edmondson Park2
INFRASTRUCTURE
Note: South West Sydney includes the Liverpool, Campbelltown and Camden LGAs
Western Sydney University is one of the fastest growing universities in Australia with over 55,000 students. It is listed in the world’s top 100 universities under the age of 50 in the Times Higher Education rankings, and ranked in the top 2% of universities in the world. South West Sydney residents are well placed to access the Campbelltown and Liverpool campuses.
Edmondson LiverpoolParkParramattaCBD
Major infrastructure projects such as the Western Sydney Airport and the South West Rail Link will attract new residents and employment opportunities to the region.
The existing South West Rail Link provides train connection to existing stations at Leppington and Edmondson Park and will provide access to new residents in the growing South West Sydney region. The proposed extension to the South West Rail Link will provide future connection to the Western Sydney Airport via Leppington.
(%)GrowthAnnualAverage South West Sydney Population South West Sydney Annual Growth Rate Greater Sydney Annual Growth Rate 438,894 513,180 595,086 673,411 782,919 3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%400,000300,000200,000100,000-500,000600,000700,000800,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 (No.)Population Western Sydney Aerotropolis (Badgerys Creek) Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia 3
The key principle underlying the strategy is the delivery of a 30-minute city to provide better access to jobs, schools and health care within 30 minutes of people’s homes. In this way, the vision seeks to rebalance growth and opportunities across Sydney.
The NSW Department of Planning and Environment projects the population of South West Sydney to increase strongly by around 2.9% per annum to 2035. This could drive demand for around 5,600 additional dwellings per year. This projected rate of population growth is well above the average annual projected growth rate for Greater Sydney of 1.6%.
The construction of the Western Sydney Airport will provide global connections and generate significant employment and is anticipated to be a major catalyst for business investment within the region. Around 16,000 new jobs are projected for the precinct by 2031, within five years of the Western Sydney Airport’s anticipated opening in 2026.
SOUTH SYDNEYWESTOVERVIEW
To promote economic and population growth the NSW Government has also identified several priority precincts in South West Sydney comprising:
Sydney CBD
Note: Projections released before the COVID-19 pandemic
§ Western Sydney Airport Growth Area
§ Western Sydney Employment Area
The South West Sydney region has been identified by the NSW Government as a critical component of Sydney’s future growth. The Greater Sydney Regional Plan outlines the 40-year vision for Greater Sydney as a metropolis of three cities (Sydney CBD, Parramatta and Western Sydney Aerotropolis).
§ South West Growth Area
§ Leppington Town Centre
Source: ABS, DPIE, Urbis
POPULATION GROWTH South West Sydney
SOUTH WEST SYDNEY REGION
AMENITY WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE
The plan proposes diversity of housing types including 992 apartments and 892 medium density terraces and townhouses. Ed.Square will combine a mixed-use town centre precinct with new residential neighbourhoods to cater to a diverse population demographic.
Ed.Square ParkOran CourtDenham HillsGledswood Train
Source: Property Australia.
Urbis.
RESIDENTIAL
Note:
Compared to similar new communities being developed in South West Sydney, Ed.Square offers a higher concentration of walkable amenity from retail, healthcare, recreation, education and entertainment.
Source:
It is also the only estate and town centre to be located adjacent to a train station.
Eat Street offers more than 20 different cuisines, creating an experiential dining experience, while the next stage will bring an indoor playground and further specialty stores.
Based on amenity upon completion of community.
SchoolChildGymTavernCinemaCentreMedicalParksPrecinctDiningSupermarketStationCare
Ed.Square is already becoming a vibrant community with the brand new Ed.Square Town Centre within walking distance to homes. The new retail offer includes a full-line Coles supermarket and fresh food marketplace, Event Cinemas, iPlay and Anytime Fitness.
Ed.Square is located in the heart of Edmondson Park, and is set to become a diverse urban neighbourhood of 1,884 new dwellings, community buildings, restaurants, cafés, shopping, entertainment, playgrounds and over six hectares of open space.
ED.SQUARE
Frasers
Market Outlook Edmondson Park4
Frasers Property Australia are committed to transforming the 24-hectare site adjacent to Edmondson Park train station into an ideal place and vibrant community of Ed.Square.
AMENITY
Denham Court
Gledswood Hills
Oran Park
Eat Street at Ed.Square, Edmondson Park
Source: Frasers Property Australia.
Ed.Square is beginning to revitalise the surrounding region.
SOUTH WEST SYDNEY REGION
Ed.Square
Source: Urbis.
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia 5
Ed.Square does contain a medical centre to service local residents. The Liverpool Hospital and Sydney Southwest Private Hospital are located nearby and provide comprehensive medical services.
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
LOCATION ACCESSIBILITYAND
EDUCATION
Source: Urbis Outlook Edmondson Park
6
MEDICAL
Market
SHOPPING
Artist impression, indicative only. Image is conceptual only and may change at any time without notice. The development is subject to planning approval.
The Edmondson Park train station connects residents to Liverpool, Parramatta and the Sydney CBD. The future South West Rail Link plans to extend residents’ transport connections to the north and south as well as connecting to the new Western Sydney Airport.
§ Event Cinemas complex featuring six screens
§ Full-line Coles supermarket, Liqourland, Eat Street and over 40 specialty retailers now open.
§ Australian entertainment centre, iPlay is now open featuring more than 80 arcade games
CONNECTIVITY
Ed.Square is a foodie and funseeker haven, and brings a new level of fresh food convenience for local residents and the wider community.
Edmondson Regional Park
Upon completion Ed.Square Town Centre will be home to approximately 120 retailers across 35,000sqm of retail space.
PARKS AND RECREATION
Residents are well placed to access local primary and high schools with the St Francis School located in Edmondson Park and nearby high schools including John Edmondson High School and Hurlstone Agricultural School. Frasers Property are exploring opportunities to develop a high school within the Ed.Square Town Centre. Western Sydney University campuses at Campbelltown and Liverpool and the University of Wollongong campus at Liverpool provide multiple tertiary education opportunities.
Future Western Sydney Airport, Badgerys Creek
§ Stage 1 of Ed.Square Town Centre is now complete and open
Residents are also well placed to travel by car on the nearby M5 and M7 motorways. These transport linkages significantly enhance Edmondson Park’s appeal for prospective Ed.Square residents.
There are several parks and reserves within and surrounding Edmondson Park such as Edmondson Regional Park and Kemps Creek Nature Reserve with over six hectares of open space to be included in Ed.Square. Other recreational uses surrounding Edmondson Park include the Casula Powerhouse Arts Centre and Michael Clarke Recreation Centre.
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia 7
William Carey Christian School Dalmeny Public School St Catherine of Siena Catholic Primary School
John Edmondson High School
Edmondson Park Train Station Carnes Hill Marketplace Aldi Edmondson
Edmondson Park Bus Interchange
Edmondson Park is located 8km south west of Liverpool CBD and 34 km south west of Sydney CBD.
MichaelParkClarke RecreationParramatta:Centre 20km Liverpool: 8km University of Wollongong, Liverpool & Western Sydney University, Liverpool: 7 km Westfield Liverpool, Liverpool Hospital, Sydney South West Private Hospital: 7 km Costco Warehouse and Crossroads Homemaker Centre: 2km Edmondson Regional Park CAMPBELLTOWN ROAD SOLDIERSPARADE TAFE NSW Macquarie Fields: 3.5km Macquarie Links Golf Club– 2km
St Francis Catholic College
Expected Completed: 2025 – $740 million
CAMPBELLTOWN04 HOSPITAL UPGRADE
Expected Completion: 2026 – $5.3 Billion (initial funding)
Expected Completion: TBA – $3.5 Billion
Source: Transport for NSW
Expected Completion: 2023 – $632 million
WESTERN01 SYDNEY AIRPORT
The development of Sydney’s second major airport to service the Western Sydney region. The new airport will be a major catalyst for economic growth in South Western Sydney by connecting the region globally and opening up freight and export opportunities. The airport is expected to deliver almost 28,000 new jobs by 2036 and encourage new business investment in the surrounding area. It is projected that the airport will service 10 million passengers annually from 2026 allowing local residents to travel globally.
HOSPITAL INTEGRATED SERVICES BUILDING
WEST RAIL LINK AND WEST RAIL EXTENSION
The Campbelltown Hospital has been granted over $632 million to upgrade its emergency department, mental health facilities and expand paediatric services to service the region.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Source: NSW Government
Construction of a new six-storey integrated services building at Liverpool Hospital. Expansion of the emergency department, women and paediatric services, new cancer treatment centre and education space.
Source: Australian Government
LIVERPOOL03
SOUTH02
Market Outlook Edmondson Park8
The North South Rail Link comprises the construction of a railway line between St Marys and Macarthur via the new Western Sydney Airport. Residents will be able to take advantage of this new connection to the future airport and the additional train services expected from such a large extension. The current South West Rail Line is proposed to extend and intersect with the new line at Bringelly.
Source: Cordell Connect
PARK SCHOOL
Expected Completion: 2023 – $300 million
Source: Cordell Connect and Roads & Maritime Services
A new primary school with capacity for 1,000 students has been announced as part of the NSW Government’s COVID-19 recovery plan. A new high school has also been prioritised for planning to support the growing population in the area.
Source: Cordell Connect
ST08 FRANCIS CATHOLIC COLLEGE
Upgrade of a 5.4 km stretch of Campbelltown Road from Casula to Denham Court past the Ed.Square Town Centre. The plans include widening of the road from two lanes to four and installation of six sets of traffic lights.
Source: Cordell Connect
CAMPBELLTOWN07
In addition to Edmondson Park’s Town Centre $200 million transformation, the region is well located to take advantage of over $10 billion in infrastructure investments in Sydney’s South West.
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia 9
EDMONDSON06
CIVIC PLACE
The Liverpool Civic Place development will provide new amenities for locals including a new library building, commercial offices for council and educational facilities for the University of Wollongong.
Expected Completion: 2025 – $100 million (overall project)
Source: Liverpool City Council and Cordell Connect
LIVERPOOL05
ROAD UPGRADE
Completed: 2020 – $38 million
Completed: End 2018 – $9.0 million (initial stages)
A new Catholic school that will include capacity for approximately 1,700 students from K-12 once fully completed. Initial stages have included the construction of the primary and high school with current capacity of ~700 students.
Population forecasts developed by Transport for NSW project the Edmondson Park study area population to grow by approximately 23,500 new residents between 2020 and 2035, equating to growth in new residents of 2.8% per annum. This projected rate of population growth is well above the average annual projected growth rate for Greater Sydney of 1.6%.
Rate Greater
POPULATION GROWTH Edmondson Park Study Area
These six suburbs are subject to similar geographical and economic factors. The study area has been created to effectively assess the area’s population growth, demographic characteristics and property market which is likely to shape the suburb of Edmondson Park.
Edmondson Park Study Area Park Study Area Growth Sydney Annual Growth
Annual
Rate Market Outlook Edmondson Park10
Edmondson
POPULATION
Significant population growth and affluent young families within Edmondson Park study area are key demand drivers for dwellings.
the
Note: Projections were released before the COVID-19 pandemic
For the purpose of this profile, the Edmondson Park study area has been defined to include the suburbs of Edmondson Park, Prestons, Horningsea Park, Carnes Hill, Hoxton Park and West Hoxton.
37,772 46,369 53,865 61,315 69,877 4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%40,00030,00020,00010,000-50,00060,00070,000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 (%)GrowthAnnualAverage(No.)Population
Source: ABS, Transport for NSW, DPIE, Urbis
The proportion of residents employed in white collar jobs has grown from 65% to 67% from 2011 to 2016, with the proportion of residents who are educated with a bachelor degree or higher having increased from 16% in 2011 to 19% in 2016. This reflects a growing educated and affluent workforce in the region.
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME 2006 to 2016 Source: ABS Census 2016; Urbis. DEMOGRAPHICS $78,849 $97,591 $113,614 $72,730 $94,428 $106,502$100,000$40,000$20,000$0$60,000$80,000$120,000$140,000 2006 2011 2016 ($)IncomeHouseholdAverage Edmondson Park Study Area Metropolitan Sydney WHO LIVES IN THE EDMONDSON PARK STUDY AREA? AreaParkEdmondsonStudy(2011) AreaParkEdmondsonStudy(2016) (2016)SydneyGreater Average Age of Residents 30 31 37 Employed in White Collar Jobs 65% 67% 75% HigherDegreeBacheloror 16% 19% 24% OverseasBorn 43% 44% 39% HouseholdsFamily 91% 92% 74% FamiliesCouple with Children 66% 68% 50% SizeHouseholdAverage 3.6 3.7 2.8 IncomeHouseholdAverage $97,591 $113,614 $106,502 $130,000IncomeHouseholdAbove 25% 36% 32% Source: ABS Census 2011 and 2016; Urbis. Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia 11
The average household income of the study area has been consistently higher than the Greater Sydney average over the 10-year period. The average household income has increased by 3.7% per annum from 2006 to 2016, illustrating the increasing affluence within the Edmondson Park study area. In 2016, the average household income in the Edmondson Park study area was $113,614, which was 6.3% above the Greater Sydney average.
The average age of residents in the Edmondson Park study area is 30, which is significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average. This indicates great potential in the study area, where the majority of workers have yet to enter the prime working age and premium salaried age period.
EMPLOYMENT
Primary schools within the local area include Bardia Public School and St Catherine of Siena Catholic Primary School. Frasers Property are also exploring opportunities to develop a high school within the Ed.Square Town Centre. The area also affords residents access to Hurlstone Selective High School and Casula High School, as well as reputable private schools such as William Carey Christian School which caters to both primary and secondary students. Residents are also well placed to access several universities within Western Sydney. Western Sydney University is placed in the top 2% of the Times Higher Education World University Rankings. The WSU Liverpool and Campbelltown campuses are the most accessible for residents of Edmondson Park. Train services from Edmondson Park to the Liverpool CBD and Sydney CBD provide residents with rapid access to key tertiary institutions within Inner City locations such as the University of Sydney and University of Technology Sydney.
NEW JOBS BY 2031 (2016-2031) Growth within the Surrounding Precincts Prepared by Urbis; Source: Transport for NSW 2019 TOTAL NEW JOBS 28,150 New jobs Liverpool CBD 5,420 New Campbelltownjobs CBD 6,710 New jobs Western Sydney Airport 16,020 New jobs Market Outlook Edmondson Park12
The new University of Wollongong South Western Sydney campus is located in the Liverpool CBD and offers programs in Arts, Business, IT and Health Management. Edmondson Park is surrounded by multiple TAFE campuses. The closest campus to Edmondson Park is at Macquarie Fields, which specialises in construction, building trades and engineering.
ANDEMPLOYMENTEDUCATION
EDUCATION
Overall, a boost in approximately 28,150 new jobs across the Liverpool CBD, Campbelltown CBD and Western Sydney Airport are likely to drive growth in demand for residential apartments in and around these centres.
Forecast employment growth within Edmondson Park and surrounding centres has the potential to drive residential demand from new workers.
The construction of the Western Sydney Airport will generate significant employment as the new airport will become a catalyst for business investment into the region. Approximately 16,000 new jobs are projected to be located within the precinct by 2031, within five years of the Western Sydney Airport’s opening in 2026.
The key employment precincts of Campbelltown CBD and Liverpool CBD are projected to accommodate strong employment growth across health, education and professional services.
Units in Ed.Square have achieved an indicative gross rental yield of 4.5%. This is significantly higher than the current Greater Sydney average of 3.5%.
Due to no apartments currently located in the Study Area, the growth in apartment rents has been assessed for the wider Liverpool LGA. The median rent for a two-bedroom unit in the Liverpool LGA was $375 in December 2020, growing at an average annual rate of 2.4%, well above the Greater Sydney average of 1.4%. The fallout from COVID-19 has seen rental growth of 8% in 3-bedrrom houses in the study area for the 12-months to December 2020.
According to the NSW Department of Housing, median rent for three-bedroom houses in the 2170 postcode was $485 per week in the December 2020 quarter, growing at a rate of 2.5% per annum over the past 10 years. It is noted that the 2170 postcode includes the suburbs of Prestons, Lurnea, Casula, Liverpool, Moorebank, Hammondville, Chipping Norton, Warwick Farm and Mount Pritchard, which is used as a proxy for Edmondson Park.
MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS December 2010-2020
OF RENTING HOUSEHOLDS
PROPORTION Edmondson Park Study Area
TWO BEDROOM UNIT RENTAL GROWTH December 2010-2020 UNIT RENTAL YIELD Source: NSW Department of Housing; Urbis. Source: Frasers; PriceFinder; Urbis Source: ABS Census; Urbis. Source: NSW Department of Housing; Urbis. RENTAL OVERVIEWMARKET The Edmondson Park Study Area is a growing rental market within the South West Sydney Region. $500$485$375$550$500$450$400$350$300$250$200 Dec-10 Jul-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Dec-15 Jul-16 Dec-16 Jul-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 Dec-18 Jul-119 Dec-19 Jul-20 Dec-20($)RentMedianWeekly 2 Bedroom Unit (Liverpool LGA) 3 Bedroom House (2170 Postcode) 3 Bedroom House (Liverpool LGA) 2.4% 1.4% Liverpool LGA Greater Sydney Updated 15% 2006 18% 20112016 16% 4.5%3.5%ED.SQUAREGREATERSYDNEY Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia 13
The Edmondson Park Study Area has a growing proportion of renting households which accounted for 16% of dwellings in 2011 and grew to 18% in 2016 (ABS Census). This reflects a growing rental market within the study area.
MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH PER ANNUM – HOUSES January 2021 Source: PriceFinder; Urbis. Liverpool5.6%LGA Metro5.0%Sydney 5-year 10-year 1.9% 1.0% Separate Flat,Semi-detachedhousesunitorapartment
� � Greater Sydney DWELLING STRUCTURE Edmondson Park Study Area and Sydney, 2016 Source: ABS Census; Urbis. 4%14% 96%58% 28% Market Outlook Edmondson Park14
HOUSING OVERVIEWMARKET
Although there is limited apartment provision within the Edmondson Park study area, there is an increasing acceptance of higher density housing with new apartments within Ed.Square. This reflects the strong housing price growth within Sydney and the relative affordability provided by apartments in the area.
The Edmondson Park study area has historically been a low density residential market characterised by house and land releases. In the 2016 Census, separate houses accounted for 96% of dwellings in the Edmondson Park study area compared to 58% of households in Greater Sydney.
Edmondson Park Study Area
Note: 2019-2021 data does not include off the plan sales which have not settled. Source: PriceFinder; Urbis.
March 2011 - March 2021
Period (Quarterly)
Given the limited availability of apartment sales in the region, we have assessed the study area’s housing market to measure historic price growth trends.
No. of MedianTransactionsSalePrice
Mar-2011 Mar-2012 Mar-2013 Mar-2014 Mar-2015 Mar-2016 Mar-2017 Mar-2018 Mar-2019 Mar-2020 Mar-2021Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Jun-2014 Jun-2015 Jun-2016 Jun-2017 Jun-2018 Jun-2019 Jun-2020Sep-2011 Sep-2012 Sep-2013 Sep-2014 Sep-2015 Sep-2016 Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020Dec-2011 Dec-2012 Dec-2013 Dec2014 Dec-2015 Dec-2016 Dec-2017 Dec-2018 Dec-2019 Dec-2020
According to PriceFinder, the median sales prices for houses in the study area grew at a healthy 6.3% per annum over the last decade, based on an average of 515 settled transactions per annum. The last 12-months has seen significant growth of 10.9%.
Data compiled by Cordell Connect indicates that there are an estimated 1,600 residential apartments and townhouses proposed to be completed in the Edmondson Park study area over the next five years.
Source: Cordell Connect; Urbis.
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia 15
$885,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$100,000$0$500,000$600,000$700,000$800,000$900,000
200180160140120100806040200
Edmondson Park is transforming from a low density residential market of houses to a more diverse market to include an emerging apartment sector.
YEAR TOWNHOUSESAPARTMENTS/ HOUSES 2021 105 104 2022 312 18 2023 281 138 2024+ 933 292 TOTAL 1,631 552
EDMONDSON PARK STUDY AREA HOUSE SALES
The majority of these are anticipated to be completed in 2024, as a lot of the proposed supply is in the development application stage.
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT IN STUDY AREA
To note, this data does not include off the plan sales that have not yet settled, indicating that the housing market is likely achieving the high volumes and growth of Therecent years.medianprice for houses in the Liverpool LGA has reflected stronger growth than that for Greater Sydney over the past decade. These figures show potential for the study area to reflect high median price growth as emerging apartment development occurs.
TransactionsofNumberPriceSaleMedian
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P0009528/B
The Content may be affected by data and information arising, or unforeseen risks, events or circumstances occurring, after the date of this publication, the likelihood and effect of which is not capable of prior assessment. The Content may be affected by known risks, events or circumstances the impact of which is not capable of assessment as at the date of the publication. Achievement of the Content will also depend, among other things, on the action of others. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of Thefuture performance.effects(bothdirectly and indirectly) of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic conditions and the resulting uncertainty in markets is impacting the Australian real estate market with market conditions changing daily. The extent of its impact and how long it will last is unknown.
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