MARKET OUTLOOK BAHRS SCRUB An emerging community and high amenity neighbourhood surrounded by green space and close to services, employment, education and transport.
02 Connectivity & Accessibility 03 Infrastructure 03 Employment & Education 03 Population & Demographics 04 Residential Market Review 04 Rental Analysis Prepared exclusively for
Frasers Property Australia Pty Ltd July 2020
Top: Retail centres; Bottom left: Education precincts; Bottom right: Strong transport links.
BEENLEIGH
BRISBANE AIRPORT 37 Minutes
BEENLEIGH STATE HIGH SCHOOL
LOGAN HYPERDOME 15 Minutes
BEENLEIGH PRIMARY SCHOOL
WU
AR
OA
MOUNT WARREN PARK SHOPPING CENTRE
WINDAROO PRIMARY SCHOOL
BEENLEIGH TRAIN STATION
HOLMVIEW TRAIN STATION
G RA
BEENLEIGH MARKETPLACE
WINDAROO LAK GOLF COURSE
D
HOLMVIEW CENTRAL SHOPPING CENTRE 7 Minutes
M EN
OR A
R OA
D
GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY LOGAN CAMPUS 16 Minutes BRISBANE CBD 34 Minutes
HEIN
CANTERBURY COLLEGE 7 Minutes
R OA D
LOGAN HOSPITAL 18 Minutes
LEGEND
CONNECTIVITY & ACCESSIBILITY Located within the rapidly growing corridor between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, Bahrs Scrub provides residents with a community lifestyle within a high amenity, well-integrated residential neighbourhood which is benefiting from infrastructure spending and strong population growth. Only three kilometres from the regional centre of Beenleigh, residents can access the Beenleigh / Gold Coast train line to commute to either Brisbane (Beenleigh to Central Station, 48 minutes) or the Gold Coast (Beenleigh to Helensvale Station, 17 minutes. The Gold Coast Light Rail (G:Link) allows residents to commute to the beach by train and tram with the heavy rail station at Helensvale now connecting to the Light Rail Tram Station. The G:Link runs through the commercial, entertainment and retail hubs of Southport, Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, with plans underway to extend to Burleigh Heads.
The Pacific Motorway (M1) is less than five kilometres from Bahrs Scrub, providing a direct link to employment nodes of Brisbane CBD, Yatala Enterprise Area and the Gold Coast. Within close proximity is the Logan Motorway providing access to western employment nodes. Infrastructure investment, population growth and employment opportunities are solid fundamentals attracting residents to the Logan LGA. Master planned communities with high levels of infrastructure and amenity offer opportunity for growth potential in an emerging area.
Education
EMPLOYMENT
LOGAN LGA
Employment forecasts within the Logan LGA indicate the number of jobs in the region will increase by more than 66,000, to a total of 168,125, by 2041.
YATALA ENTERPRISE AREA
Additionally, the largest industrial zoned land area on the Gold Coast, the nearby Yatala Enterprise Area, currently employs 19,435 people and has the capacity to grow to 40,000.
GOLD COAST BEACHES 46 Minutes
GOLD COAST AIRPORT 52 Minutes
11
Primary Schools
7
Secondary Schools
1
2016
2041 Forecast
101,980
168,125
New Jobs
66,145
YATALA ENTERPRISE AREA 2016
Capacity to expand to
19,435*
40,000
Prepared by Urbis; Source: Urbis and City of Gold Coast *Based on the SA2 of Ormeau –Yatala.
EDUCATION
KES
Leisure
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
5
Primary & Secondary Schools
Planned
48
Childcare Centres
1
Griffith Universty Logan Campus
11kms from Bahrs Scrub
Planned
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ACECQE, Cordells
POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS
Who Lives in the Logan LGA?
Of the eight Local Government Areas (LGA) making up South East Queensland (SEQ), the Logan LGA is forecast to achieve the second highest population growth over 25 years to 2041. Annual growth of 2.3 per cent is forecast, taking the population to over 550,000 residents by 2041. The forecast growth for Logan LGA is higher than the neighbouring LGA’s of Brisbane and Gold Coast, which are projected to grow at 1.1 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively. Forecasts for the Bahrs Scrub/Wolfdene SA2 area indicate a considerable increase is expected, with an average growth rate of 3.7 per cent per annum and the resident population more than doubling over 25 years. Transport
Health
Retail
Airport
Families with Young Children
Logan LGA
Brisbane LGA
43.5%
40.2%
Average Age
34.4
36.1
Owner Occupied
67.4%
65.9%
Detached House
86.5%
76.9%
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS Census 2016, QGSO 2019
$1.44 BILLION IS BEING SPENT INCREASING THE CONNECTIVITY BETWEEN LOGAN AND BRISBANE
INFRASTRUCTURE LOGANLEA TRAIN STATION RELOCATION $95 million (Planned) BEENLEIGH/BRISBANE RAIL LINE UPGRADE $60 million (Planned)
LOGAN WATER INFASTRUCTURE PROGRAM PARTNERSHIP $520 million (Under Construction) COOMERA TOWN CENTRE $500 million (Completed)
BEENLEIGH/BRISBANE (KINGSTON) ROAD UPGRADE $11.2 million (Planned)
GOLD COAST LIGHT RAIL (G:LINK) STAGES 1, 2 & 3A $3.2 billion (Completed and Planned)
WINDAROO VALLEY STATE HIGH UPGRADES $4.35 million (Completed)
PACIFIC MOTORWAY UPGRADE STAGES 1 TO 3 $1.4 billion (Under Construction and Planned)
BAHRS SCRUB CHILD CARE CENTRE $3 million (Planned)
LOGAN HOSPITAL EXPANSION $465 million (Under Construction)
LOGAN HYPERDOME EXPANSION $20 million (Under Construction) BEENLEIGH MALL REDEVELOPMENT $5 million (Completed) BEENLEIGH MALL VILLAGE EXPANSION $7 million (Completed) CANTERBURY COLLEGE SPORTS FACILITIES $6 million (Under Construction) HOLMVIEW SHOPPING CENTRE EXPANSION $130 million (Planned)
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Australia
3
Bahrs Scrub recorded a median house price of $447,000 during the last half of 2019, higher than the Logan LGA figure of $415,000. The Bahrs Scrub housing market is relatively new with the majority of sales being in the land sector. The median land price in Bahrs Scrub was $224,000, on par with the wider Logan area, and achieving 6.9 per cent growth per annum over 20 years. The last half of 2019 saw total sales of 112, the second highest level recorded in 20 years.
4,000
$400,000 $350,000
3,500
$300,000
3,000
$225,000 $250,000
2,500
$200,000
2,000
$150,000
1,500
$100,000
1,000
$50,000 2019 DEC
2017 DEC
2018 DEC
2016 DEC
2014 DEC
2015 DEC
2013 DEC
2011 DEC
2012 DEC
2010 DEC
2009 DEC
2007 DEC
2008 DEC
2005 DEC
2006 DEC
2003 DEC
2004 DEC
2001 DEC
500 0
$450,000 Median sale price ($)
Logan LGA median land price $415,000
2002 DEC
The Logan median house price is $285,000 more affordable than Brisbane, and $235,000 more affordable than the Gold Coast. Similarly, the Logan median land price is more affordable, being $177,500 more affordable than Brisbane and $64,000 more affordable than the Gold Coast.
Logan LGA median house price
4,500
1999 DEC
The strong long-term price growth is reflecting the opportunities in the Logan LGA while retaining affordable price points when compared to neighbouring LGA’s. Areas within the Logan LGA that offer new house and land packages are an affordable option for both owner occupiers and investors. With convenient access to major employment nodes, education, health and leisure amenity, and the central hub of Beenleigh. The Logan LGA provides residents with a family focused lifestyle choice at an affordable price.
Logan LGA number of house sales
5,000
2000 DEC
The Logan LGA has demonstrated strong long-term house and land median price growth, increasing by 6.6 and 6.8 per cent per annum respectively over 20 years to the end of 2019.
LOGAN LGA HOUSE & LAND SALES CYCLE Dec 1999 – Dec 2019
Number of settled transactions
RESIDENTIAL
$0
Period (half year)
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder
MEDIAN HOUSE & LAND PRICE GROWTH 5 YEARS
15 YEARS
20 YEARS
Logan LGA Median House Price Growth pa
2.3%
3.5%
6.6%
Logan LGA Median Land Price Growth pa
3.6%
2.8%
6.8%
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder at Dec-2019
MEDIAN HOUSE & LAND PRICE COMPARISON
STRONG POPULATION GROWTH, INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING, ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT HUBS AND LOW RENTAL VACANCY BODES WELL FOR RESIDENTIAL MARKETS WITHIN THE LOGAN LGA. RENTAL ANALYSIS Rising rents within the Brisbane LGA have promoted increased attention and market activity for affordable new housing options in greenfield areas such as those located within the Logan LGA. Providing convenient access to employment hubs, lifestyle amenity and connectivity to Brisbane CBD and the Gold Coast, Bahrs Scrub is in a good position to benefit from the continuing demand for modern family-friendly housing options. The residential rental vacancy factor across the Logan LGA is recorded at 1.6 per cent (December 2019 quarter) indicating a tight rental market. Analysis of advertised houses for rent across Bahrs Scrub highlight the premium attached to new and near-new homes. Three-bedroom homes are asking rents up to $400 per week – compared to a median price of $340 for new and established product. New and near-new four-bedroom homes are asking up to $435 per week, compared to the median weekly rent of $390.
MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE DEC 2019 Logan LGA
MEDIAN LAND PRICE DEC 2019 Logan LGA
Brisbane LGA
Brisbane LGA
$225,000
$415,000
$700,000
Gold Coast LGA $650,000
DIFFERENCE
$402,500
$285,000 DIFFERENCE $235,000
Gold Coast LGA $289,000
DIFFERENCE $177,500 DIFFERENCE $64,000
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinder at Dec-2019
MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS Dec Qtr 2019 REGION
3-BED HOUSE
4-BED HOUSE
Brisbane LGA
$445
$550
Gold Coast North+
$430
$460
Logan LGA
$345
$400
Bahrs Scrub*
$340
$390
Prepared by Urbis; Source: Residential Tenancies Authority Q4 2019 *Based on postcode 4207 includes suburbs of Bahrs Scrub, Beenleigh, Eagleby, Mount Warren Park + Gold Coast North includes Jacobs Well, Ormeau, Coomera, Pimpa-
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